And just like that, with a five game losing streak, the Mariners are done.
Again, I will reiterate: I never seriously believed the Mariners were going to contend for a division title. Though, to be honest, I thought we’d at least hang around until the end of July or so.
But no. We’re 7.5 behind Texas, 6.5 behind Anaheim, and 11.5 games behind the Yankees for the Wild Card. I’ll spell it out for you: D-O-N-E.
301 runs scored at the All Star Break equates to a 536 pace at season’s end … IF we maintain pace. Unfortunately for this team, that pace includes the entire first half of the season, including the early parts where the Mariners were a somewhat better hitting (and scoring) team. Lately? Notsomuch.
Over the last 32 games – dating back to the last time I felt good about this team, right after the Tampa series in early June – the Mariners have averaged 2.53 runs per game. Since that feels like an accurate count for this team going forward (as this offense is currently constructed, with a lot of young guys and a lot of bad guys), if we gave this team what it averaged over the past month for the rest of our 71 games, the Seattle Mariners would finish with approximately 481 total runs. (UPDATE: I swear to Christ in Hell I wrote this before reading this … besides, my math gives us 2 more runs than Baker’s math, so that means my post is 2 better. 2 what? Shut the hell up!)
For those counting at home, that’s a whopping 32 runs worse than last year’s already historically abysmal total of 513.
And while I’m playing around with numbers, let’s go over those last 32 games once again and look at our 12-20 record in those games. If you figure (like I do) that this offense is going to remain exactly how it is (with one good game of over 4 runs scored followed by six clunkers), with the starting pitching also sticking close to what it’s done thus far, then that 12-20 record going forward is a pretty accurate interpretation of what these Mariners REALLY are.
That having been said, going over the math as best I can, then you can pencil the Mariners for a 27-44 record going forward. Which would give us a 70-92 record. Which, to be fair, is what a LOT of people thought coming into this season. Not what I thought (I was predicting another 100-loss abomination), but I suppose that’s a good thing. It would be tough to lose 100 games at this point (19-52 the rest of the way), and I don’t honestly believe this team is a 100-loss team.
Of course, lose a couple more starters to injury, dump all your dump-able veteran contracts before the trade deadline, and watch the Triple-A talent continue to decline under the withering pressure of Major League pitching, and my mind wouldn’t be blown if we do figure out a way to lose 52 of our next 71 games.
Do I think that’s going to happen? Well, how can I NOT after I’ve just given us the whammy kiss of death? No, I have to figure there are at least 20 shutouts or near-shutouts in these next 71 games to avoid going over the cliff. I just hope some of these hitters finally figure it the fuck out.