Monthly Archives: March 2012

Last Dance With Golden Tate

Posted on by
Reply

I was thinking about the Seahawks’ receivers before I even read this, but I figure I might as well acknowledge it.

The Seahawks are currently set on exactly two receivers for next season’s team:  Sidney Rice & Doug Baldwin.  As was noted all last season, Doug Baldwin is the real deal.  He was easily our best receiver (as an undrafted rookie) with 51 catches for 788 yards.  That’s with Tarvaris Jackson as quarterback!  So, you know with a guy like Flynn, he’s probably capable of double that!

And say what you will about Rice, but when he’s healthy, he’s a force.  Granted, you have to take that health into consideration, which is why I gotta figure the Seahawks will be looking to keep an extra receiver around just for emergencies.

In the middle of the pack, all pretty safely on the team, but still fighting for significant playing time, you’ve got Mike Williams, Ben Obomanu, Kris Durham, and, of course, Golden Tate.

There’s no denying that Big Mike had a down year last year.  A little probably had to do with nagging injury, a lot probably had to do with the lack of a rapport with Tarvar, and a decent-sized amount probably had to do with Big Mike acting like a little bitch when he didn’t get the ball thrown his way.  I don’t mean to single him out, because in general I think all wide receivers are little bitches when it comes to not getting enough targets, but it’s not like that’s something I can ignore when I’m evaluating his season last year.

Obomanu has continued to make this team out of training camp in defiance of his actual on-field talent level.  He’s not big, he’s not fast, he doesn’t have the greatest hands in the world, I guess he runs okay routes, but what does that matter when he’s not that big or fast enough to create separation?  I would expect him to continue to make this team even though there’s no rational reason for that to happen (unless, of course, he’s due a big bonus or all the other receivers on the roster blow him out of the water).

Durham is a draft pick, and he’s got that size Pete Carroll loves.  He missed almost all of last season with injury, so you know Pete’s going to want to see what he’s got.

That just leaves Golden Tate.

Last year, I wrote, “Golden Tate absolutely MUST make strides this year towards being a pro receiver.”  The big question on everyone’s minds is:  did he?

Technically, yes.  He increased his receptions from 21 in 2010 to 35 in 2011 (that’s after learning a new offense AND not having a proper offseason with which to do it).  He increased his yards from 227 to 382 (which, I’ll admit, aren’t exactly mind-blowing numbers in the least).

What’s encouraging is not the season as a whole, but how he finished last season.  In his last 8 games, Golden Tate racked up 286 of his 382 yards (and 24 of his 35 catches).  That coincides with the premature end of Sidney Rice’s season, which means he took advantage of a direct opportunity.  It also shows that the team was comfortable enough with him to significantly increase his playing time.  The increase in overall targets is there, which means he was developing a better chemistry with the quarterback.  These all bode really well for Mr. Tate!

What doesn’t particularly bode well for him is that he and Doug Baldwin are essentially the same player.  With Baldwin’s overall production being through the roof last season, you have to figure he’s ahead of Tate on the depth chart for that slot position.  That doesn’t mean you can’t have two slot receivers on your team, but with this offense, how many times do you expect them to go beyond a 3-WR set?  Not bloody often, considering they love to run the ball and they love the tight end position.

Not the least of Tate’s worries are the guys below him on the depth chart.  Deon Butler is still kicking around on this team (though, you HAVE to figure this is his very final opportunity, and if he doesn’t make the team out of camp, he will be cut).  I’m sure if the Seahawks don’t draft another receiver this year, they’ll at LEAST bring in one or two undrafted guys to compete.

And, let us not forget Ricardo Lockette.  Dude spent most of the season last year not playing a lick of football, but then he finally got an opportunity in the last two games of the season.  Granted, he only caught two passes in those two games, but my GOD what an impression he made with those two receptions!

On the second play of the game, against the 49ers, Tarvar to Lockette for 44 yards from the Seahawks’ 20 yard line to the 49ers’ 36.  The Seahawks would go on to score a touchdown for an early 7-0 lead.

In the fourth quarter of the Arizona game, down by a touchdown with less than 8 minutes to go, the Seahawks forced a 3-and-out and got the ball on their own 39 yard line.  The very first play of the drive saw Tarvar launch a bomb to Lockette for a 61-yard touchdown to tie it up.

Two plays, 105 yards.  What Tate has going for him, with regards to Lockette, is that Lockette is a bit taller (6’2), so in theory if he develops properly, he could be an outside flanker type of speed burner guy.

Nevertheless, there is quite a bit of talent on this team at receiver.  It’s time for Golden Tate to step his game up.  I’m talking over 50 receptions and over 700 yards.  It’s time.  Because I can’t imagine this coaching staff is going to wait around forever.

Why You Should Want Tony Wroten To Come Back Next Season

Posted on by
1

There are any number of reasons why he SHOULD come back – he needs to develop a jumper, he needs to develop a right hand, he needs to refine some of the wilder aspects of his game like his passing & decision-making - but what I find most disconcerting is a complete and utter lack of a desire by Husky fans to WANT him back.

If you polled the entirety of Husky basketball fans, you’d run across close to half of them who don’t like the guy and never will like the guy.  Believe me, I know, these people are fucking looney tunes, but they’re out there and they’re ridiculous!

Why WOULDN’T you want him back?  Regardless of what Terrence Ross decides to do, with Tony Wroten you’ve got a kid who is ONLY going to get better as he matures.  And as he stands now – an immature, cocky Freshman – you’ve still got something glorious!  As a True Freshman, he averaged 16 points, nearly 2 steals, nearly 4 assists, and 5 rebounds per game.  He went to the line nearly 8 times a game (easily leading the team) and his field goal percentage is a little over 44%.

Imagine Hypothetical Basketball Player X.  HBPX is like one of those characters you can create in a video game.  Let’s say you can configure his settings so he replicates all of those stats I’ve just given you in the previous paragraph AS A TRUE FRESHMAN.  Now, just imagine what that player will be capable of in years two, three, and four (although, let’s be realistic:  it’s bloody unlikely we see years three and four, but that’s neither here nor there).  Are you telling me you wouldn’t want Hypothetical Basketball Player X to be on your basketball team next season?

The major variable, of course, is Terrence Ross.  So, let’s break it down.

Terrence Ross Leaves For The NBA:  well, at this point, you root for the Huskies and they’ve just lost their best player.  Do you REALLY want to lose your second-best player?  The guy who will BE your best player next season?  Terrence Ross leaves, but Wroten stays, then you can at least harbor delusions of this team coming together and putting up another run for the Conference Title.  Without BOTH of those guys?  Say hello to 6th Place, because you’re not going to win too many games when your leading scorers (Wilcox & Suggs) are both outside jump shooters and you’ve got no guards to go inside and do the dirty work (unless Gaddy blossoms, as we all hope he does).

Terrence Ross Stays With The Huskies:  it’s this scenario that Husky fans salivate over.  At this point, those Anti-Wrotenites don’t give two shits about whether or not Wroten stays or goes; and in fact, I bet most of them would rather he just go away and we’ll take our chances without him.  I think that’s moronic.  Look at the teams in the Final Four right now.  What do they have?  All American Talent, from top to bottom.  If you want to be one of those elite teams, you’ve GOT to have the kind of talent on your team that Wroten would provide.  Considering he’s only going to get better – because, when you’re in college, there’s pretty much no way for you to go BUT up, especially when you play under Romar – that’s just going to make this team a runaway force to be reckoned with come next season.  Terrence Ross will be The Man, Tony Wroten will have worked on all aspects of his game that needed working on, Abdul Gaddy, Scott Suggs and Aziz N’Diaye will be Seniors, C.J. Wilcox will be a Junior, and all those other Freshmen we have on our roster will have that season of experience (even if they rode pine mostly, they still got all that practice time).

We only lost one senior, Darnell Gant.  With both Ross & Wroten back, WE will be the front-runners!  WE will have the national media behind our backs from the start!  WE will get all the attention in the conference!  Which means WE will have our stock bolstered in the Pac-12, which will hopefully translate to our continued success in convincing new top-flight recruits to sign here, instead of those other teams you see in the Final Four every year.

But, like I said, regardless of what Ross does, we still need Wroten.  If for nothing else, we need his ball-handling skills.  If he leaves, we have Gaddy and …

I don’t think any Husky fan out there trusts Wilcox or Suggs to handle the ball down the court.  And I don’t think Abdul Gaddy can play 40 minutes every game.  And I REALLY don’t think any of our lesser, benchwarming point guard types are ready for Prime Time.

Put it all together, and we as Husky fans better get behind the idea of Tony Wroten coming back next year.  Quit being a bunch of bitches and recognize elite talent when you see it!

The Mariners Played More Baseball In Japan This Morning

Posted on by
Reply

The fuck?  Bartolo Colon???  Really???

Well, this didn't last long, did it?

That game was going swimmingly until the bottom of the seventh inning.  Mariners had a 1-0 lead, both offenses were being shut down so the game was going by super-quick.  Had I been so inclined, I could’ve taken a 90-minute nap after this thing ended!

Then the bullpen rode in on its shit-colored horse and ruined the hell out of my morning.

I can’t argue with the logic.  Eric Wedge got 6.1 solid innings out of Jason Vargas (2 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts), there were a couple of right-handed bats coming up, why wouldn’t you bring in Shawn Kelley right there?  He gets a fielder’s choice, then serves up a slider down the middle of the plate for the go-ahead 2-run homer and that was that.

It made just as much sense to bring in George Sherrill after that.  A couple of left-handed bats, why wouldn’t you bring in your lefty specialist?  0 outs and 3 hits later (including a solo homer), Sherrill is out of the game and it’s Chinatown after that.

Using the bullpen was the smart move.  They just didn’t get it done, plain & simple.

Of course, maybe if this offense actually came to play, we would’ve had a different ballgame.  Justin Smoak had a solo homer to left and that was IT.  Montero & Olivo got their first hits of the season (both singles) and Saunders worked a walk.  That was the offense, those four guys.  Pathetic, that’s all I can say about that.  They made Bartolo Colon look like Felix Hernandez out there!

So, we’re 1-1.  In two games, during the regulation-portion of those games (i.e. the first 9 innings) the Mariners have scored a total of 2 runs, both on solo homers.  Suffice it to say, I’m SUPER excited about this team’s chances this year!

I can’t believe I woke up at 2am for this …

The Mariners Played Baseball In Japan This Morning

Posted on by
Reply

I’m sure everyone has a story about how they dealt with this morning’s Mariners/A’s game (but not everyone has a blog, so suck it).  Most people, I’m assuming, slept right through the thing because it’s insane to either stay up for or wake up for a 3am Major League Baseball game.

But, there were a few of us hardcore fans out there.  Some of them were invited to watch at Safeco Field (according to this morning’s broadcast, anyway).  Some people, I’m sure, turned it into a party, drinking well into the morning hours.

I had to work today – in fact, I had to start getting ready for work at 6am – so my plan was a little different.  I ended up watching the entirety of the UW/Minnesota basketball game last night.  Of COURSE the fucking thing had to go into Overtime.  I popped a couple Benadryl tablets about midway through the second half of that game, so I was nice and drowsy by the time the game ended (I was also pleading for someone, ANYONE, to win the fucking thing so I could get to sleep).  The game ended at 9pm and I went straight to bed.

Set my alarm for 3am.  Here’s the tricky part:  I don’t have cable (I watched the Husky game streaming on ESPN3), but my apartment building has a little workout room with a 19-inch old-school tube-screen TV hanging up in the corner.  Obviously, nobody is working out at 3am, so I went down there, sat on the weight bench, and watched the Mariners game in darkness.

THAT is the definition of my mania.  I blew off an opportunity to hang out with friends and drink beer last night so I could go to bed at 9pm and wake up 6 hours later to watch the Mariners play baseball in Japan.

As for the game itself, what can I say?  That’s the same fucking game we, as Mariners fans, have seen for the last three seasons.  Felix is dominant, Felix goes 8 strong, giving up 1 run, and Felix gets the No Decision because we can’t score for shit!  On the one hand, hell yeah, we won!  On the other, sorry Felix.

Obviously, I thought Felix looked great.  He always looks great, he’s Felix!  A Felix start is like a fresh-baked pizza – even if it’s terrible, it’s still pizza.  Beats the hell out of fish sticks!  (by the way, wake up at 2am tomorrow for a major dose of fish sticks … I mean, Jason Vargas).

The offense, of course, was a thing of beauty ugly.  Dustin Ackley had two hits (a homer and the game-winning RBI single), but we knew he was going to be awesome.  Ichiro had 4 hits, so that’s a little bit of a relief.  No, it doesn’t mean anything going forward, but at least for his sake and his own well-being he had a 4 for 5 day in front of his home country.  Figgins somehow managed a single, so at least when he goes into his month-long funk, he’ll have better than a .000 batting average.  Michael Saunders had a first-pitch-swinging single and a stolen base before his day went to shit (got caught going to third on a ground ball to the left side, then went 0-for his last three at bats).  And Brendan Ryan had a double in the 11th (and scored the game-winning run).  Everyone else went with the big goose-egg, so that’s a relief.  If this Mariners team came out and scored 10 runs, my mind would probably have fucking exploded.

In the end, we have a team ERA under 1.00 after one game.  Tom Wilhelmsen picked up where he left off, going 2 scoreless.  And Brandon League got the save easy-peasy.

I’m still considering whether I want to wake up at 2am tomorrow.  I REALLY don’t, but when am I ever going to have this opportunity again?  Fuck …

Huskies Lose In The N.I.T.

Posted on by
1

I’ll do an official season recap sometime in the near future.  But, right now, it’s time to acknowledge the game we watched last night.

It’s terribly frustrating, but them’s the breaks.  This Husky team has NBA talent all over the place, but unfortunately they’re not NBA stars yet.  One day, guys like Terrence Ross, Tony Wroten, C.J. Wilcox and the rest might make for fantastic players at the Pro Level, but right now they’re just college kids whose basketball games are incomplete.

C.J. Wilcox has a Pro jump shot.  But, while he’s made some strides with his driving ability, the ability to create his own shot is just not there yet.

Tony Wroten has the size scouts love in a point guard, and he can be a wizard at times in the paint with both of his abilities to drive and to rebound, but his jump shot is one of the worst I’ve ever seen.

Terrence Ross seemingly has the whole package going for him right now.  Wicked outside shot, ability to dribble-drive, a little bit of a post-up game, and a nose for rebounds.  Of the underclassmen on this team, Ross is the most likely to leave for the NBA and he’s also the most likely to make an immediate impact.  But, for as good as he is, you can’t deny the fact that he disappears for long stretches.  In the N.I.T., that certainly wasn’t evident, as he was a man on a mission whenever he touched the ball.  But, in the regular season – when the games arguably mattered more – Ross was here one minute and gone the next.

Last night, we saw the great in our team.  And we also saw the awful.

C.J. Wilcox was a ghost in the first half as he was held scoreless and practically without an attempt.  That harkens back to the fact that he can’t really create his own shot yet.  Still, in the second half, he broke free a lot more and helped lead our comeback push into Overtime.  He would do himself a great service by returning to the Huskies next season.

Tony Wroten was even worse in the first half.  See, a smart defensive team will pack it in the lane and force him to either shoot from outside (which he just won’t do for the most part, because he CAN’T hit a jumper to save his life), or force up a crazy runner from outside the paint.  Which is what we saw here last night.  Crazy runner after crazy runner, clang-clang-clanging off the rim.  And since there were so many defenders packed down in the lane, it was nearly impossible for him to gather his own rebound like he’s done so much this season.

I’m only going to say this, like, five more times:  Tony Wroten needs to come back to the Huskies and he needs to spend the entire off-season working on nothing but his jump shot.  He is NOT ready for the NBA right now, and if he tries to make the jump, he’s going to be riding a lot of pine until his shot IS ready.

Terrence Ross pretty much carried this team last night, that’s undeniable.  To advise him to return to the Huskies would be a purely selfish gesture.  Nevertheless, with the promise that he’ll get 20 shots a game, I’d REALLY like to see what this team is capable of with a healthy and motivated Terrence Ross, college Junior.

I don’t know what this team is going to look like next season.  What I do know is that Abdul Gaddy is ready to make the leap.  No, not the NBA, but as the leader of this Husky team.  He’s shown flashes of late as to his aggressiveness.  Next year, I’d like to see him take it to the next level.  His jumper isn’t as attrocious as Wroten’s, but it could certainly use some work.  But, I’d also like to see him dribble drive into the paint more.  He’s as capable as any point guard around the rim, might as well take advantage of that.

I wasn’t overly impressed with anyone else last night.  It’s a shame for Darnell Gant; he certainly deserved better.  Still, I thought he looked extremely tentative with ball in hand and a wide-open shot – as if visions of our loss to UCLA were still rattling around in his head.  It looked like he could’ve had his shot rolling if he just would’ve given it half a chance.

Tough break, all around.  Especially given the comeback we mounted.  Down 12 at halftime (thanks to a last-nanosecond three pointer by Gant before the break), you had to figure the Huskies would have another run in them.  And, of course, they did, but this was unlike our other second-half comebacks.  Mostly because it took the WHOLE second half.  Still, it was real exciting there when we got the steal and the lay in by Wilcox to tie it.

One thing I’ll whine about, which has nothing to do with anything:  can you BELIEVE this team was never able to hit a late game-winning shot with time expiring?  The whole season!  And there were opportunities; usually you at least LUCK into one or two.  But, this year, these Huskies couldn’t buy the kind of luck that normally comes for free.  I really thought that shot by Wroten at the buzzer was going to rattle in off the backboard.  But, what are you gonna do?

Now, we wait.  It won’t be a long wait.  We’ll know by April 10th (and probably a lot sooner than that) who we’re going to have on this team next season and who we won’t.  Start crossing those fingers.

2012 Mariners Preview Part II: The Pitchers

Posted on by
1

FYI, this one isn’t going to be nearly as wordy as yesterday’s post.

While you could argue that my views on the hitters are marginally optimistic – I’m generally hopeful about five of our potential regulars, and not entirely against the idea of a couple others – my views on this season’s crop of pitchers is pretty darn negative.

Aside from Felix, of course.

I would like to point out, with 100% bias, that if I had my choice of any one starting pitcher in all of the Major Leagues, I would hands-down choose Felix over everyone else.  And I don’t necessarily think that’s too crazy!  His numbers are comparable to anyone else’s in baseball, he’s an insatiable innings glutton, and he’s got a winning personality that makes you glad he plays for your team (if you’re a Mariners fan, that is).  Not only that, but he’s easily the most coveted pitcher on or off the market; it makes me happy knowing the best teams out there want our guy, but they can’t have our guy!  Fuck you, Yankees!

Felix aside, though, YE GODS!  It’s a tremendous step down to our number two starter, Jason Vargas.  Now, I’m not as down on this guy as most Mariners fans are.  I will say that I don’t necessarily think he’s worth the money he’s getting this season (and I REALLY don’t think he’s going to be worth the money he will command on the open market next season).  But, it’s not like the Mariners were just going to cut ties with a guy who is a durable left-hander.  And it’s not like anyone was going to want to trade for him considering this was his last season of club control (and if they did trade for him, we wouldn’t have gotten squat for him anyway, so whatever).

Essentially, we were stuck with Vargas, we were stuck with his $5 million paycheck, and there’s nothing we could’ve done to change that so stop crying over spilled milk.

With Vargas, you’re going to get some games where he looks as dominant as they come (relatively speaking, for a guy who throws in the mid-to-high 80s), where he’ll shut out a few teams, give up only a handful of hits and striking out upwards of double-digits.  That’s when his change up is on and his fastball is located well.  You’re also going to get some games where he looks like he belongs in the Independent Leagues, where he’ll get shelled and won’t escape the third inning (or worse).  This is when his change up is dead and his fastball catches too much of the plate.  Both of these scenarios – the dominant and the inept – will be in the vast minority of his overall output.  In general, Vargas will go 6-7 innings and he’ll give up 2-4 earned runs.

If I had any memory at all, I’d track how many times he has a game in that exact range.  I guess we’ll see.

Vargas is the least sexy pitcher I’ve seen in ages.  Which makes him truly the epitome of the Seattle Mariners.

Then we’ve got Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan.  They make Jason Vargas look like Don Draper’s new wife.

Her.

I know enough about Blake Beavan to know that I’m not crazy about him.  I don’t despise the guy, but let’s just say I’m not looking forward to watching him make 30 starts this season.  He’s another low-90′s fastball right hander who’s certainly NOT as sweet as Doug Fister.  Whereas with Fister I saw potential in a guy who – with pinpoint command – could be great; with Beavan all I see is a 4.50 ERA.  For every great start he’ll give you five duds.

I know next-to-nothing about Noesi, so in that respect I guess he’s marginally more interesting than Beavan.  But, I’m sure as his own ERA hovers around 4.50, the novelty will wear off quickly.

And then there’s Kevin Millwood.  You know how the guys you hate the most tend to be the most durable?  Like they stay healthy just to spite you, while much more talented and enjoyable players (*cough* GUTI *cough cough*) can never seem to stay on the field long enough to live up to their vast potential.  That’s exactly what I’m looking forward to dreading with Kevin Millwood.  I guarantee you that while our younger phenoms (Ramirez, Hultzen, Paxton, Walker) are all dominating at their various levels of play, Kevin Millwood will not see one day of the Disabled List.  Bank on it.

Speaking of which, if there’s one thing to be hopeful about with the starting pitching of 2012, it’s that this will HOPEFULLY be the last season we’ll have to watch guys like Vargas, Beavan, Noesi, and Millwood infecting our starting rotation with their mediocrity.  If one thing absolutely needs to happen this season, it’s that our Big 4 (and Felix) need to stay healthy.  If two things need to happen, it’s that they also need to develop into Major League regulars.  I want 2013 to be the most exciting season ever; that’ll happen if the Big 4 make the jump to everyday Major League starters.

As for the bullpen, I like Brandon League.  I’ve said all along that I think the Mariners would be smart to sign League to a long-term extension.  He looks like he’s durable (in that he doesn’t have a crazy arm motion that’s going to put undue stress on his shoulder or elbow), he’s got a dominant sinking fastball that approaches 100 miles per hour, he’s got a devastating out-pitch in his split-fingered fastball, and he’s shown he’s got what it takes after the past two seasons of playing at a high level.

On the downside of Brandon League, he has that annual stretch of five-or-so games where he gets battered around by the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles.  I say this season, we just leave him back in Seattle for that road trip.

A not-insignificant reason to sign League to an extension is this:  we gave up what could very well be a monster starting pitcher in Brandon Morrow for him.  It would be nice to not get totally hosed in that deal by losing the other Brandon.  Yeah, Morrow hasn’t exactly put it all together yet, but he’s shown enough flash with some of his dominant high-strikeout games to make me a believer that ONE DAY he will figure it out.  And he’ll be awesome for years thereafter.

After League, who the fuck knows?  Wilhelmsen looked pretty good last year once we brought him back up (after his miserable initial stint with the team), but will those great late-season appearances translate to him being the real deal in 2012?

We got George Sherrill back, so I guess that solves our problem in the bullpen from the left side.  Then again, does it?  He’s pretty old at this stage of his career.  Most fans believe he’s got at least one more season left in him; let’s hope so.  Not that it matters.  Sherrill isn’t exactly a long-term solution at the end of our bullpen (not that the phrase “long-term” ever really applies to bullpen guys, but that’s neither here nor there).

We’ve also got Shawn Kelley back from a seemingly never-ending string of injuries.  Who has confidence this guy has seen the last of his woes?  My bet is he’s back on the DL before the end of May.  Who wants action?

And, we’ve got other arms, but who really cares about those other arms.  A couple of nobodies and a dude in Iwakuma who couldn’t even beat out Blake Beavan for a starting job … hey, look out for these guys!

My Predictions For the 2012 Season

74-88, fourth place in the AL West.  I think our Team ERA will be in the bottom third of the American League.  I think our Runs Scored will be marginally better than last season’s (no more than 25 runs scored).  I think one of our major stars will suffer a season-ending injury (please not Felix, please not Felix, please not Felix).  That having been said, I think the Mariners will have one of the best records in Baseball in the month of September when all of our awesome starting prospects get called up and start mowing through the competition.

That’s that.  Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go to bed early so I can wake up at 3am to watch a stupid fucking baseball game.

2012 Mariners Preview Part I: The Hitters

Posted on by
2

You know, for a while there, I was ALMOST excited about this upcoming season.  I know, I’m a God-damned sucker, and I sucker myself into this team every fucking season.  You know, every season there’s at least ONE surprise team!  Maybe this is the year underperforming veterans bounce back and young prospects shock the world!  MAYBE, if we get lucky in enough 1-run games, we can stay competitive through the summer …

I know it’s retarded, but it’s hard to watch the numbers some of these guys are putting up and NOT think, “Well, maybe.”

  • Kyle Seager batting .350 with 3 homers and 3 doubles.
  • Michael Saunders batting .324 with 1 homer and 4 doubles.
  • Jesus Montero batting .306 with 2 homers and 3 doubles.
  • Alex Liddi batting .429 with 1 homer and 7 doubles.
  • Vinnie Catricala batting .313 with 2 homers and 1 double.
  • Ichiro batting .400 with 2 homers and 2 doubles.
  • Justin Smoak batting .393 with 3 doubles and more walks than strikeouts.

Pardon the double-negative, but these are not UNimpressive numbers.  It’s just that, as everyone knows, you HAVE to take Spring numbers with a huge grain of salt.  Like, a grain the size of Mt. Rainier.  History is absolutely RIDDLED with the stories of guys who did well in Spring Training, only to fall on their asses when the games started to count.

Which is generally what sets baseball apart from most every other sport.  Take football, for instance.  If a rookie comes into Training Camp and blows away the competition, he’ll likely make the team as a starter (or at least as a guy who plays regularly, if he’s not blocked by an All Pro or something).  That rookie who did so well in Training Camp is GENERALLY going to do pretty well when he plays in the regular season.  All young players make mistakes, but in football the good ones will generally do more good than harm.

In Baseball, it’s pretty much the opposite.  Even in the case of Michael Pineda, you’re talking about a guy who ripped through the minor leagues before he got his first taste.  And even IF you’re a guy who has dominated at the lower levels, that’s absolutely no guarantee of future success at The Show.  Baseball is the biggest crapshoot of them all.  Which is why guys like me still get suckered in every now and then.  But, ultimately, it’s a crapshoot where there’s no winner (if you’re a fan of the Seattle Mariners, that is).

The Mariners get a lot of praise for building this team “The Right Way.”  I tend to be of the opinion that there IS no “right way” except the way that wins you a World Series.  But, I suppose there is a “Wrong Way”, and the main proponent of that wrong way was Bill Bavasi.  NOTHING that guy did ever worked out!  Yeah, there’s something to be said for spending money like the Yankees and the Red Sox (mainly:  “Why don’t the Seattle Mariners spend money like the Yankees and the Red Sox?”), but the apologists have a point when they say it doesn’t matter HOW much money you spend if you’re spending it on the wrong people.  Fat, bloated contracts given to fat, bloated losers will generally make your team the laughing stock of the entire league.  I get that!

Here’s where the Mariners will ultimately lose me forever.  I get that the Mariners have a plan in place right now:  they’re building through drafts and shrewd trades for prospects, in hopes that enough of them hit big so we can build around them with some proven veterans when the iron is hot.  In that sense, yeah, cut your salary if you have to and give all the playing time to your young (and cheap) talent.  But, when that talent starts to blossom into All Stars, the Mariners better be ready to pay the piper.  Because if this is going to be one of those Kansas City Royals/Pittsburgh Pirates deals where we’re constantly trading away our talent when it comes time to sign them to long-term deals, then that’ll be that.  I won’t root for a team that’s essentially a farm club for other, bigger Major League teams more willing to spend money to make money.

Having a plan is fine, but every plan has to have a conclusion it’s trying to reach.  Spending as little as possible (while your direct rivals are spending what it takes to get the job done) and while aspiring to be nothing more than a .500 ballclub is NOT a plan.  Don’t forget that.

***

So, where are the Mariners at with their plan right now?

Oh, Christ, I don’t know.  Based on last year’s numbers, I’d say we’re proper fucked!  But, I suppose it would be more constructive if we broke the hitters down into catagories.

The Keepers

The only hitter on this team we have a good reason to be confident about right now is Dustin Ackley.  On the one hand, that’s IT?  One guy?  But, on the other hand, that’s great!  We’ve at least got AH guy we can hang our fucking hats on!  That’s more than we could say the past three seasons.  He’s going to hit for a good average, he’s going to get on base at a great clip, and he’s going to hit for enough power to be one of the most productive guys at his position.  Considering that position is Second Base, I’d say that’s a good start.  Gonna need about eight more guys at the other positions to really feel good about this team, but at least we can say Second Base is locked down.  There are plenty of guys on this team I will worry about; Dustin Ackley I can thankfully take for granted.

Guys We Have Reason To Hope Will Be Good

These are guys on the next tier down.  We THINK they’ll be good for us, but we just need to see them prove it.  Near the top of this realm, we have guys like Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, and Ichiro.  I know, one of these things is not like the other, but hear me out.  With Montero, you’ve got a guy who’s got the best stroke we’ve seen since Edgar Martinez.  If he were to actually BE Edgar Martinez and give us Edgar’s career, I think we’d all be more than thrilled with the transaction.  Not only is this guy highly regarded as a prospect, but he’s a guy you HAVE to be considering for Rookie of the Year (if ROY were like the Heisman Race and mostly decided upon pre-season).  The only thing is, he hasn’t done it yet.  Crazy things happen.  If Montero gives us a solid rookie campaign (with no injuries), then he goes right to the top of The Keepers list before next season.

Justin Smoak’s a little different in that he’s had some Major League experience.  He had what amounted to a full season at the Big League level last year (in that he was never sent down to AAA for a lack of productivity) even if he missed some time due to injury.  I think we’re all pretty confident in the guy – after all, we both dealt Cliff Lee and spurned the Yankees to get him – and he has shown flashes of being a very good hitter at this level.  Now, it’s time for him to put it all together.  A full season, no injuries, no personal life disasters.  With Smoak at first base, Montero potentially at catcher, and Ackley at second base, you’re talking about a great little core of guys with which to build your team around.

Before I get to Ichiro, I’m going to throw another name into this mix, as a guy I’m ultimately confident will turn out to be a fantastic hitter for the Mariners.  Kyle Seager.  The thing with Seager is, yeah, I think he’s going to be awesome, but where is he going to play?  With Seager, you’re basically getting another Ackley (in that they’ve got a little bit of pop in their bats, but neither of them are going to put up mind-blowing power numbers).  If he were to take over for Brendan Ryan next year at Short Stop, then yeah, I guess that’d be great.  But, does Seager have the defensive capabilities to man the toughest position in the field?  Or do you sacrifice a traditional power position like Third Base on a guy who’s not going to give you traditional power numbers?  Given the willingness to bring in a guy like Figgins, I’d say Jackie Z is willing to make that sacrifice.  Personally, I’d be okay with giving up a little defensive range at Short Stop if it meant we actually had a third baseman worth his weight, but I guess that’s an argument for another day.  In the meantime, if Seager shows he’s got what it takes, the Mariners will HAVE to find room for him somewhere.  And that’s always a good problem to have.

Finally, Ichiro.  I have him lumped in with these up-and-comers not because I’m looking for a reason to re-sign him to a three-year extension at season’s end.  I’m talking about Ichiro exclusively in the 2012 sense.  He’s coming off of a bad year, no question about it.  This is the first off-season where we’ve had Ichiro as anything but a Sure Bet.  Indeed, he’s now a question mark.  As in:  Is Ichiro finished, question mark?

One thing I don’t think we have to worry about is Ichiro’s speed.  Has he lost a step?  I dunno, maybe he’s lost AH step, but the guy still had 40 stolen bases in 47 opportunites (an 85% success rate, which is far from his worst season in that regard).  He was picked off at the same rate he’s always been picked off (6 in each of the last two seasons).  In fact, pretty much across the board his baserunning numbers are level.  If he’s in decline, or has “lost a step”, the numbers aren’t bearing that out.

The number people like to point to when they remark that Ichiro has lost a step is his 42 infield hits, which is down considerably from the past two seasons (63 in 2009, 64 in 2010).  Had Ichiro had twenty more infield hits in 2011, he would’ve easily cleared his 200-hits goal and maybe this talk about Ichiro being finished could be delayed another season or two.  But, I’ve got to ask a couple of questions:  1. how much of the number of infield hits you get is attributed to luck?  It seems like a flukey BABIP kind of thing that will go your way one season and go against you the next.  If Ichiro hits some of those groundouts a few inches further away from the short stop, then some of those groundouts become hits. After all, Ichiro has had comparable seasons where he’s hit in the 40s in infield hits (and those were years where he still had 200 overall hits).

Question 2:  how much of the number of infield hits Ichiro got (or didn’t get) in 2011 was a result of the opponents being extra aggressive defensively?  After all, with our historically bad offense, why wouldn’t the other team try to take away some of Ichiro’s infield hits?  If they play a step or two in (or towards a certain base, depending on how the pitcher is going to pitch him) and it succeeds, then great, Ichiro is out.  If their aggressive defense fails, then damn, Ichiro is on base.  But, that’s still okay because even if he steals second and third base, it’s not like the Mariners have anyone who can hit him home (regardless of whether there are less than two outs or not).

I have Ichiro in this catagory because I have a better-than-average feeling that he can bounce back from a down season.  With his work ethic and his distinct skillset, if anyone is going to bounce back, it’s Ichiro.  If only for one season.

Guys We Hope MAYBE Will Figure It Out

Here, we have players who – most likely – will turn out to be underachievers.  .225 hitters with lots of strikeouts and double plays hit into.  Frustrating fuckers given chance after chance, with little-to-no payoff.  In essence, this catagory is tailor-made for Michael Saunders.  The only reason he’s not in a far-worse catagory is because the guy has all the damn tools!  He SHOULD be GOOD!  He plays great centerfield defense, he’s shown he has power and speed on the basepaths.  But, his long, slow swing makes him an easy target for the pitcher who can hit that low-and-away spot in the strikezone (and for those who can hit that lower and more away spot out of the strikezone).

But, Michael Saunders isn’t alone.  I’m putting Mike Carp in here as well, because I just don’t know.  Yeah, he was one of our best hitters last season, but that really isn’t saying much.  Will his modest success carry over (and hopefully blossom) into 2012?  Or, is Mike Carp essentially who we thought he was?  He’s not a traditional left fielder, so if it turns out he’s an absolute disaster with the glove, then that reduces his value tenfold.  Because Montero is going to get the bulk of the DH at-bats in his rookie campaign.  But, even if Montero was the catcher and Carp the DH, Carp’s kind of production isn’t really what you’re looking for in a one-dimensional player.  Finally, do we really know if he can hit left handed pitching?  If not, then that’s another hit to his value.  Yeah, if Carp puts it all together, he could be GREAT.  But, if he doesn’t, then he’s just another platoon outfielder who will inevitably be relegated to the bench in favor of a better player who can do it every day.

Guys Who We Know Of What To Expect

That’s not a good thing.  This is the Tarvaris Jackson of baseball player catagories.  We have the rest of our starting nine in here.  Guys like Brendan Ryan.  He’ll bat you .250 (almost exclusively singles) and he’ll give you great defense (when he’s healthy).  That’s it.

Or Miguel Olivo.  He’ll bat you anywhere from .230 to .250, he’ll swing for the fences at will (which means he’ll give you around 20 dingers), he’ll strike out a ton, and he’ll almost never get a walk.  And he’ll play a piss-poor backstop with his passed balls and all the wild pitches he should’ve knocked down in front of him.

Or, *shudder*, Chone Figgins.  He’ll get you around .190, he’ll lead the team in Safeco Field boos, and he’ll make just enough errors and poor throws to make you wonder what anyone ever saw in his defense.

Guys Who We Just Have No Fucking Clue

This is where the rest of our bench resides.  John Jaso, Casper Wells, and Munenori Kawasaki.  Who the fuck knows?  They’re bench (or, at best, platoon) guys, so really, who cares?  Throw in the rest of the AAA rabble like Peguero and Liddi and Wilson and Catricala and Trayvon Robinson while you’re at it.  I don’t know and you don’t know what they’re going to do, so let’s just leave it at that.

Oh, and I guess we can throw Guti into this mix as well.  Will he EVER be healthy?  Stay tuned for the most frustrating show in Seattle sports!

Tomorrow, I’ll try to muster up a preview about the pitchers, but I’m not gonna lie to you, tomorrow’s going to be a busy day in Seattle Sports World.

The Mariners Start Their Season In Japan

Posted on by
Reply

This isn’t really meant to be a newsy post.  Or even all that much of an opinion post.  It’s more a reason to acknowledge something remarkable.

It’s remarkable that the Seattle Mariners are starting their season in Japan, facing the Oakland A’s.  How often does that ever happen?  In our case, this is the first.  And I think it’s fucking cool.

This upcoming Wednesday morning, March 28th, at 3:10 in the a.m., the Mariners are going to play a live baseball game that will be televised on Root Sports.  Then, the following morning, at 2:10am, the Mariners are going to play another game that will be televised on Root Sports.  If I wasn’t so low on vacation days, I’d consider taking these two off and fucking up my sleep schedule.  As it stands, I might just go to bed super early the nights before and try to wake up early enough to watch them live.

It’s just too bad that no one else in America knows or gives a shit.  Why aren’t these games televised nationally instead of just regionally?  Why won’t ESPN even acknowledge the existence of these games, except in a cursory highlight or two on SportsCenter?  Well, mostly because the Mariners and A’s are terrible right now, but still.  While the rest of the baseball world believes the season is going to start on Wednesday, April 4th, with a single game featuring St. Louis & Miami, Oakland and Seattle fans know the truth.  The season is ACTUALLY starting a week earlier.  So, suck it Major Leagues.  I don’t know why, but just suck it anyway.

Matt Flynn Is The Best The Seahawks Could’ve Done

Posted on by
Reply

Given the circumstances, I couldn’t be happier with how this whole quarterback thing went down.

We weren’t getting Andrew Luck, we weren’t getting Robert Griffin, we weren’t getting Peyton Manning.  In essence, we weren’t getting the three best quarterbacks on the market in this offseason.  Where would that have left us?  Drafting the third, fourth, fifth, or sixth best quarterback out of college?  All of whom would be COMPLETE unknowns, yet almost assuredly downgrades from the top two guys picked.  Or, there were any number of crappy veterans out there, from Chad Henne, to Kyle Orton, to Jason Campbell, to Vince Young, to David Garrard, to Alex Smith … with the much-maligned Smith being the best of the bunch.  Then again, would you (as the Seahawks) REALLY want to sign Alex Smith to his sixth different offense?  I think he CAN be good, but I would still like to see him do it over more than just the one season before I invest too heavily.

As far as I can tell, Matt Flynn was the fourth-best option out on the market this offseason.  Yeah, he’s only started two games in the NFL, but that’s two more games than anyone coming out of college.  And besides, Peyton Manning is one hard hit away from the grave.

I have a lot of confidence in this move.  Yeah, the Seahawks have led us astray in the past with the last two quarterback signings.  But, those were two guys we KNEW would stink!  Charlie Whitehurst?  That was a total pipe-dream at best, picking another team’s third stringer.  And Tarvaris Jackson?  That might be the most bemoaned signing in franchise history!

Matt Flynn, on the other hand, comes in with a lot of fanfare.  This is the guy EVERY Seahawks fan wanted (at least, those fans smart enough to know who WOULDN’T be available … myself and my Drew Brees fantasy notwithstanding).  Matt Flynn was the ultimate prize, and not only did the Seahawks get him, but they got him for a reasonable deal!  So, if everyone is wrong and he flames out:  no big whup.  We go right back to the drawing board.

Or, we draft a project quarterback in this draft and hope HE makes something of himself.

I’m excited.  You know why I’m excited?  Because we’re going to have an open quarterback competition.  We can all probably take Pete Carroll’s words with a grain of salt at this point, but at least PUBLICLY this will be an open battle.  I’m sure if Tarvar comes out of the gate like a man possessed, they’ll give him the nod.  But, here’s the thing:  Tarvar in no way, shape, or form is going to come out of the gate like a man possessed.  He’s going to come out exactly as he has his whole career.  And Matt Flynn is going to beat him.  And we as Seahawks fans are all going to rejoice because we will have a starting quarterback who is BETTER than Tarvaris Jackson!

That’s more back-handed compliment than outright insult on Tarvar’s behalf.  Tarvar isn’t the WORST quarterback in the world.  I would take Tarvar right now over every other quarterback available in free agency this offseason (except Manning, of course).  Tarvar is an okay quarterback.  He’s an 8-8, middle-of-the-road quarterback.  The problem with Tarvar is:  he has a ceiling.  And he’s reached that ceiling.  Tarvar is never going to be better than he is right now.  And that is simply not good enough for a franchise looking to get back to the Super Bowl.

Matt Flynn, being better than Tarvar, means that he has a HIGHER ceiling.  A ceiling that could potentially lead us deep into the playoffs.

I want you to watch a video.  It’s a video of Matt Flynn’s first start against New England in 2010.  In that game, he went 24/37 for 251 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.  He had a passer rating of 100.2.  The Packers would go on to lose that game by 4 points, but I want you to pay special attention to our guy in his first NFL start.  I want you to see how very decisive he is!  I want you to marvel at his decision-making, and I want you to compare him in your mind to Tarvaris Jackson.  I want you to remember all those times Tarvar took a needless sack because he held onto the ball for 8 seconds when he should’ve gotten rid of it after 4.  It’s about ten minutes long, so settle in and get pumped.

He wasn’t perfect, mind you.  There were plenty of check-downs to beat the band.  But, he was taking what the defense gave him, he was moving the ball, and he was leading his team the way a quarterback is supposed to lead.  Shaking off the mistakes, coming back for more, and taking chances when chances are warranted.  I mean, shit, he came within a few more seconds of leading his team to a victory against a very good Patriots team in a Sunday Night, nationally-televised game!

We all know what he did against Detroit, in only his second start, in the final game of the 2011 season; and you can say what you want about Detroit’s shitty defense and the amount of Yards After Catch the Packers had.  I’ll just point to his  first start against the Patriots and say, “That Detroit game wasn’t a fluke.”  This guy COULD be for real.  And I couldn’t be more pleased.

Seattle Mariners Roster Explosion 2012!!!

Posted on by
1

When I try to wrap my head around something, I like to make lists.  I like to listen to instrumental rock and I like to make lists.

So, without further ado …

For starters, let’s look at the 40-man.  You can see it all laid out here in an official capacity, but I would like to break it down thusly:

Guys Already Sent To The Minors:

  1. Danny Hultzen (SP – Left Handed)
  2. Yoervis Medina (SP – Right Handed)
  3. Mauricio Robles (RP – Left Handed)
  4. Francisco Martinez (3B – Right Handed)
  5. Carlos Truinfel (Inf – Right Handed)
  6. Johermyn Chavez (OF – Right Handed)
  7. Chih-Hsien Chiang (OF – Left Handed)
  8. Trayvon Robinson (OF – Switch Hitter)

Guys Destined For The Minors:

  1. Chance Ruffin (RP – Right Handed)
  2. Charlie Furbush (SP – Left Handed)
  3. Adam Moore (C – Right Handed)
  4. Alex Liddi (Inf – Right Handed)
  5. Carlos Peguero (OF – Left Handed)

Guys On The Disabled List Who Will Eventually Be In The Majors:

  1. Franklin Gutierrez (CF – Right Handed)

Now we’re getting somewhere!  Forget those 14 guys even exist, because they won’t matter until the season is well out of hand.

Now, how about we get to your Starting Nine, in what appears to be the order Eric Wedge will have them batting (at least initially):

  1. Chone Figgins (3B – Switch Hitter)
  2. Dustin Ackley (2B – Left Handed)
  3. Ichiro (RF – Left Handed)
  4. Justin Smoak (1B – Switch Hitter)
  5. Jesus Montero (DH – Right Handed)
  6. Mike Carp (LF – Left Handed)
  7. Miguel Olivo (C – Right Handed)
  8. Michael Saunders (CF – Left Handed)
  9. Brendan Ryan (SS – Right Handed)

Now, if I were convinced that these guys would be good, I’d say that’s one helluva lineup to post against a right handed pitcher.  But, I digress.  Those are your starting 9 to start the season, barring some fluke.

Guys Who Figure To Start The Season On The Bench:

  1. John Jaso (C – Left Handed)
  2. Munenori Kawasaki (Inf – Left Handed) (also:  not yet on the 40-man, but will be)
  3. Casper Wells (OF – Right Handed)
  4. Kyle Seager (Inf – Left Handed)

Assuming, of course, the team goes with a 4-man bench.  I’m also assuming that Casper Wells makes the team over Carlos Peguero (which, let’s be realistic, is the way it SHOULD be).  If Wells continues to struggle as he has in Spring Training, then when Guti comes back, it’ll be a matter of either Wells or Saunders going back down to Tacoma.  But, that’s an argument for another time.  This brings our 40-man total to 27.  Let’s look at the pitchers.

Starting Five:

  1. Felix Hernandez (Right Handed)
  2. Jason Vargas (Left Handed)
  3. Kevin Millwood (Right Handed) (also:  not yet on the 40-man, but will be)
  4. Blake Beavan (Right Handed)
  5. Hector Noesi (Right Handed)

So, it doesn’t really diversify all that much (4 righties & a lefty), but it’s what we’ve got, so we better get used to it.  I fully expect Millwood to be the 3rd starter, because I doubt very much that Wedge is going to keep on a veteran like Millwood and not put him right in the middle of the order.  Then again, who really cares?  The last four pitchers on this list inspire fear in exactly no one, so take my order with a grain of salt.

This brings us to our 7-man bullpen:

  1. Brandon League (Closer)
  2. George Sherrill (Left Handed)
  3. Tom Wilhelmsen (Right Handed)
  4. Lucas Luetge (Left Handed)
  5. Shawn Kelley (Right Handed)
  6. Steve Delabar (Right Handed)
  7. Hisashi Iwakuma (Right Handed)

Yeah, I guess we’ll see.  I think the bullpen might be the biggest wildcard on the team.  Who knows WHAT you’re going to get?

And at this point, you might be thinking, “Hey!  That’s only 39 guys!”  And you’d be right.  I don’t know if they need to right now or not, but if they had to they could always put Erasmo Ramirez on the 40-man to make things a little more complete.  Although, if he’s not on the 40-man now, and we’re past the point of the Rule 5 Draft, I don’t see why the Mariners have to go to all the trouble right now.  Seems like they could easily wait until the end of the season (or whenever he earns his way up to the Big Club) to add him to the 40-man.

Anyway, that’s it.  I feel better informed already!