It All Comes Down To This

I anticipate on Monday I’ll be writing about The Season That Was, or some other In Memoriam-type post on the 2014 Seattle Mariners.  Truth be told, as I said before, I’ve already checked out of this season.  The odds are too long and we’re playing too shitty for a comeback to be likely.

But, it’s Friday, and so I’ll try to not end this week – where the rains have returned and are sucking my will to live – on a total downer of a note.

The odds are long, but they’re not impossible.  The Mariners have three games at home against the Angels.  The A’s play three more in Texas.  The Royals have three more against the White Sox in Chicago.  The Mariners are currently 2 games behind Oakland and 3 games behind Kansas City.  So, it’s pretty simple.

The Mariners need to:

  • Win 2 of 3 and have Oakland lose the remainder of their games (which would force a 1-game playoff before the 1-game Wild Card playoff)
  • Win 3 of 3 and have Oakland lose 2 of 3 (which would also force a 1-game playoff)
  • Win 3 of 3 and have Oakland lose out (which would give the Mariners the 2nd Wild Card outright)
  • Win 3 of 3 and have the Royals lose out (which would force a 1-game playoff with the Royals)

I don’t want to get into what happens if there’s a 3-way tie, because it’s too complicated and stupid and it’s never going to happen.  Whatever the case, just know that the Mariners would host any of those 1-game playoffs because we’ve got better season records against the Royals and A’s.

So, how confident am I in the Seattle Mariners?  Well, given their recent pitching performances (Taijuan Walker notwithstanding), not very.  The Mariners are going to throw Iwakuma, Paxton, and Felix in that order this weekend.  If you’d asked me about a month ago about our chances, I’d say – with those three studs going – we DEFINITELY have a better than 1% chance of forcing a 1-game playoff to get to the next 1-game playoff.

But, at this point, I’m willing to guarantee a loss in that Kuma game, because he has been fucking awful over the last few weeks.  He doesn’t throw nearly hard enough to be pitching up in the zone like he’s been doing.  And, when he gets up there in the zone, his pitches have zero movement; you might as well just place the ball on a tee for them to hit off of.

Assuming the Mariners lose tonight, all that would need to happen is the A’s winning down in Texas.  I’d rather be blissfully ignorant of their pitching matchup, because I’m sure whatever it is will be too depressing to handle right now.

On the one hand:  yeah, the Mariners were in contention all the way to the very last weekend.  On the other hand, it could all be over tonight, if things play out like they should.

I thought I was trying to NOT end this week on a downer of a note!

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