Seattle Sports Hell 2014 NFL Power Rankings – Week 4

This week’s intro is called:  “Taking A Revised Look At The Seahawks’ 2014 Schedule”

Every year, I do a preview/prediction post where I take a look at the Seahawks’ schedule and try to predict the winners and losers.  This year, I went and predicted a record of 14-2, where I guessed the Seahawks would lose at San Francisco and at home against the Rams in Week 17 when we’re resting all of our starters.  As you can discern, I’m already way off base, as the Seahawks’ first loss was at San Diego in week 2 (when, in all fairness, I did predict a fairly close, high-scoring game; and I even got San Diego’s score right on the nose with 30 points!).

Anyway, we’re now four full weeks into this thing, and while it’s impossible to know how everything is going to play out this early into the season, four weeks is enough to give us something of an idea of how it’s all going to shake out.

Next week, we play the Redskins on Monday night.  I WAS a little concerned about things with Kirk Cousins taking over, but his performance on Thursday night brought that dream back down to Earth.  I don’t think he’ll be as bad as he was against the Giants, but he’s still not all that good.  They have talent, but I don’t think the Seahawks will have much trouble shutting down their offense.  And their defense is THE WORST, so even if they do manage to put up some points, they won’t put up enough.

One trend I’m noticing out of this season is the sheer volume of high-scoring offenses we’re facing on a regular basis.  For one reason or another, it’s reasonable to at least somewhat fear the following:  GB, SD, Den, Was, Dal, and Phi.  Obviously, six isn’t a high percentage, but out of the gates we’ve got the first five games against these high-scoring teams.  Dallas is no different.  Though, Dallas still has the iffy quarterback play, so I don’t see this game being much of a contest.  I stand behind my prediction of this being a comfortable win.

After the Dallas game, we’ve got two road, 10am starts, against the Rams and Panthers.  The Rams aren’t a good team, period.  Injuries have killed them, obviously.  But, beyond that, they’re just not gelling as a team.  Their defense isn’t anywhere near as good as they should be.  And, their offense isn’t stepping up and improving as they should.  Even without Sam Bradford, on paper, the Rams should be a .500 team with a bullet.  We should be fearing the Rams as a divisional contender for years to come; but they keep spinning their tires.  Is it the coaching staff?  That’s quite possible.  Jeff Fisher isn’t some coaching god.  He’s just another guy, like Shanahan and Andy Reid and all these other coaches who go from one good situation to a bad situation.  He caught fire in a bottle once, but he’s not good enough to capture it twice.  The Rams are toast and should not be feared.

Until I saw the Panthers’ defense get crushed in the last two weeks – against the likes of the Steelers and Ravens – I considered that game to be a legitimate threat.  But now?  Even if they somehow shut down our run game, we shouldn’t have much trouble shredding them through the air.  And, as for their offense?  Ye Gods!  As expected, Cam Newton doesn’t have any weapons around him.  At worst, it’ll be another low-scoring affair just like the last two times we’ve played this team.  But, I’m starting to get the feeling that this will be yet another comfortable win.

We follow that stretch with two home games against the Raiders and Giants.  Is it possible that these teams are even WORSE than expected?  I don’t see how, but that’s exactly what’s happening.  The Raiders certainly aren’t getting the return on investment with all the veterans they signed.  As for the Giants, they’re a fucking zoo (I don’t care they beat the Texans and Redskins the last two weeks).  The offense will be crushed, and the defense will be decimated.  If the Seahawks are flying high and still mostly healthy, I expect us to beat the Giants by 50.  Anything less will be a mild disappointment.

We play the Chiefs on the road.  I wasn’t expecting much out of them originally, but after watching them dismantle the Patriots on Monday night, I think I short-changed them a little bit.  That defense, while wounded and missing some pieces from last year, is still pretty strong.  Plus, they’ll be at home, in the loudest stadium in the world, so that’s fun.  I still don’t think they’re making the playoffs, but they’re just as good as any other AFC Wild Card team in contention for that 6-seed.

We wrap up our 8-game stretch of Teams The Seahawks Should Beat with a home contest against the Cards.  Right now, the Cards are 3-0 and look to be the first REALLY tough defense we will face.  I have to believe that teams will have figured them out by the time we play them in week 12, so they absolutely should not still be leading in this division.  With this being a home game – and with the Seahawks still pretty salty about losing at home to them last year – I fully expect us to complete this 8-game stretch with another victory.  But, it’s probably going to be a lot tougher than I would’ve thought.

On the flipside, the Thanksgiving game in Santa Clara looks a lot EASIER than it did before the season.  I don’t know what happened to the 49ers, but they look like they’re going down in flames.  The defense looks average-at-best, and the offense is spinning their wheels (even with added firepower in the passing and running games).  To put it this way, I’m no longer guaranteeing that this game is a Seahawks loss.  How does that make you feel?

I am a little more concerned with the Eagles game, though.  Before the season, I predicted a high-scoring game where we still manage to win comfortably.  At the moment, this is a real coinflip for me.  Don’t get me wrong, I would still rather play a team with an offense-first mentality (and a shitty defense) over the alternative of a crappy offense and an overly-stout D.  But, there are a couple factors at play that really scare the bejesus out of me.  First and foremost, is this going to be a game where the weather is freaky?  Like, are we going to run into a huge snow storm or something?  The game against the Chargers had super-high temperatures that really affected our defense.  Will super-crappy Philly weather do us in the same way?  The other thing is:  we haven’t faced this particular team in a while (similar to the Chargers).  Thankfully, with the Thanksgiving game, we’ll have a few extra days to watch tape and prepare.  But, that doesn’t compare to actual game experience.  Since they’re so foreign to us, will they come out of the gate and blow us out of the water?  That’s a legitimate concern we should all be prepared for.  If I weren’t such a homer, I’d put this game in the loss column right now.

Our season closes out with three games against the division.  The 49ers at home, which we should win.  Then, on the road in Arizona.  I could see that one being a loss too!  If their defense holds up and they catch some breaks on offense, who knows?  At least the weather should be relatively mild for the time of year.  Finally, we come back to play the Rams.  If it’s a game we NEED to win to get home field, then I expect us to win.  If it’s not, and we rest all of our starters after a few series, then probably mark that one a loss.

14-2 is still in play, but after four weeks, if I were a betting man, I think I’d hedge my bet and lock us down for 12-4 or 13-3.  Giddyup.

***

  1. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) – So, Zach Miller will be out a few weeks.  That sucks harder than it sounds.
  2. Denver Broncos (2-1) – I kinda figured the Broncos would be tested by the Chargers, but if the Chiefs turn out to be decent, it might not be the easiest road for the best team in the AFC.
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) – Anyone want to tell me why we have six teams with BYEs last week, but only the Dolphins & Raiders this week?  Hey NFL, how about a little consistency!  No one likes the BYE weeks!  How about just doing 6 teams a week for five weeks and 2 teams that last week?
  4. Detroit Lions (3-1) – It finally looks like the defense is rounding into form.  This could be a dangerous team.
  5. San Diego Chargers (3-1) – I picked up their defense in fantasy – because Cincy was on a BYE – and they got me a nice chunk of change.  With some of the cupcakes they’ve got on the schedule, it looks like I’m going to keep them around for a while.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) – Nick Foles isn’t God.  If you cut him, he will bleed!  And every once in a while, he’s going to have a shitbird of a game.
  7. Arizona Cardinals (3-0) – I’m pretty happy they took the 49ers down a peg, but the Cardinals will cease to be perfect starting this week.
  8. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) – 0-2?  BFD.  This is where the sucky division and cheesy overall schedule comes into play.
  9. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) – I know people were recommending that we root for the 49ers over the Eagles, but how was that game any different than the Saints/49ers game last year?  Sure as shit, we needed the Saints to win that game for us to take the division title and the #1 overall seed.  I don’t think the Eagles are #1-seed material, and it SURE would have been nice to see the 49ers fall to 1-3 and REALLY fall into a tailspin.
  10. New Orleans Saints (1-3) – It’s getting harder and harder to continue to believe in this team.  Yeah, they’ve only played one home game, but that wasn’t the most impressive victory in the world.  And, if they can’t win on the road, is this still a team I should worry about?
  11. Green Bay Packers (2-2) – The defenses they face start to get easier as the season goes along.  But, I still don’t think they’re on the same level as the Lions.
  12. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) – Way to bounce back, Chiefs!  I had low expectations coming into the year, and your first two games only reinforced that opinion.  Seriously, how did you lose a game at home against the Titans when you just pulled off that type of performance against the Patriots?
  13. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) – OH BOY, the Cowboys are 3-1!  Looks like we better start taking them seriously and projecting them into the playoffs!  Except, who do they play in December again?  @ Chicago, @ Philly, vs. Indy, @ Washington.  Hmm.  CAN YOU SMELL WHAT THE TONY ROMO MELTDOWN IS COOKING???
  14. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – I said it about the Saints and I’ll say it here:  if you can’t win on the road, then you’re just wasting everyone’s time.  You think you’re going to play a home game EVER in the playoffs?  Think again.
  15. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) – Pretty good record now, but check back in with me after they’ve played their next four of five games on the road.
  16. New England Patriots (2-2) – They haven’t had the most difficult schedule, yet even in their victories they haven’t looked good on offense.  Who knew that the O-Line would be important?  Oh, that’s right, anyone who knows anything about football knew that the O-Line would be important.  It’s like Bill Belichick goes into every season asking himself, “How can I make Tom Brady’s life a living hell THIS year?”  No receivers, no offensive line, a tight end who can only play once every five plays; let’s try that and see if he blows his brains out.
  17. Chicago Bears (2-2) – See, Chicago, that was a test.  That was a test and you failed.  At home, if you want to be a contender, you’ve got to BEAT Green Bay.
  18. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) – These God damned Steelers are the 8-8est team I’ve ever seen in my life!
  19. Carolina Panthers (2-2) – In their first two games – both victories – the Panthers’ defense was rock solid and they looked like they could hang with the Panthers of 2013.  In their last two games – both losses – they’ve given up 35+ points per game and have caused fantasy football owners to pull their hair out.  So, what’s it going to be, Panthers?
  20. New York Giants (2-2) – Well, they’re not good enough to beat the good teams, but they should be just okay enough to beat the crappy ones.  Which means, of course, that they have as good a chance as anyone to win the NFC East (zing!).
  21. Houston Texans (3-1) – Sorry, still not buying it.  You can beat all the Redskins, Raiders, and Bills that you want, but you’re still not a good team.  And, quite frankly, there aren’t enough shitty teams on your schedule to prop up this sinking ship!  Mark it down now, they’re losing 4 of their next 5 and will go into their BYE with a record of 4-5.
  22. Miami Dolphins (2-2) – Miami coaches, just do me this favor:  feed your running backs and take the ball out of Tannehill’s hands.
  23. Washington Redskins (2-2) – On the one hand, boy does Cousins look like a dumpster fire waiting to happen.  But, on the other hand, never trust a Thursday night performance – good or bad.
  24. New York Jets (1-3) – You know, if this team has even a halfway decent record by season’s end, it’ll be really impressive.  They’ve got a pretty tough schedule considering they’re in the AFC Least.
  25. Buffalo Bills (2-2) – Not gonna lie to you, giving Kyle Orton the starting job is the first step in everyone from the GM on down getting their asses shitcanned.
  26. Minnesota Vikings (2-2) – I don’t know if I’m ready to live in a world where Teddy Bridgewater is the best quarterback of his class.
  27. Cleveland Browns (1-2) – You got me, I don’t have anything on the Browns.
  28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) – Better with Glennon?  Probably.  A good team with Glennon?  Absolutely not.
  29. St. Louis Rams (1-2) – So, who’s their starting quarterback again?  I’m serious, I have no idea.
  30. Tennessee Titans (1-3) – This is why you pay Charlie Whitehurst the big bucks.
  31. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) – So, here’s the deal.  The Jags play Pittsburgh, @ Tennessee, Cleveland, Miami, @ Cincinnati, and Dallas before their BYE week.  Any of those first four games are totally games you could win if you’re the Jags.  If they don’t win any, I think you’re well within your rights to fire the whole coaching staff and start over after the BYE.  This is where you realize whether you’ve got something you can work with or not.  Is Gus Bradley the real deal?  He’s going to have to prove it in the next four games.
  32. Oakland Raiders (0-4) – So, when the Raiders needed to use a backup quarterback, their first choice was Matt McGloin?  No wonder their coach got fired this week!

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