In the days following the end of the Seahawks’ season, a lot of bloggers like myself took to their keyboards to concoct plans for what the Seahawks should do this offseason. I was no different, and I think it’s fun to go back and look at how things in real life differed from my Seahawks Vision Board (for the TL;DR crowd: scroll to the very bottom for my concise list).
Part of what made my list so impractical is that I really didn’t have a handle on how much cap room the Seahawks really had. Nor could I have seen how much money some guys – like Irvin and Sweezy – would end up commanding on the open market. But, let’s quickly go one by one down the list to see how my vision differs from reality:
- The Seahawks did, in fact, let Okung go and move Gilliam to LT – CHECK!
- Couldn’t bring back Sweezy, cost too much (probably for the best anyway)
- Instead of “stud free agent guard”, the Seahawks went for a so-so guard and opted to move him to right tackle (Webb)
- (draft stud left guard in 1st round – draft hasn’t happened yet, but might be unlikely to see a stud fall to 26th overall)
- Seahawks brought back Lewis at center – CHECK! – and may indeed draft one as well
- Seahawks seem set at leaving Britt at left guard, and have already named Webb the starting right tackle, so this prediction looks like a bust
- Lynch retired, Rawls looks good to be the team’s #1, team re-signed Michael to be the #2, and still could draft a third down back late – ALMOST CHECK!
- Have yet to extend Baldwin, but still have time to do so
- Re-signed Kearse to 3-year, $13.5 million – CHECK!
- Kept Rubin, let Mebane go, replaced Mebane with cheap FA option (Siliga), and still could draft another – ALMOST CHECK!
- Seahawks didn’t re-sign Irvin (too expensive), looking to spread savings elsewhere – EITHER WAY I COULDN’T LOSE THIS CHECK!
- Re-signed Lane to 4-year, $23 million – CHECK! (even better because I projected more money in my prediction)
So, I’m well on my way to getting 7 of these things right, with potential to get to 9 by the time the draft passes and we get closer to Training Camp.
Anyway, we’ve got a good idea of what most of the roster looks like right now. In all likelihood, the Seahawks already have at least 39 of 53 players on their roster right now, and possibly as many as 49 of 53, depending on how the pre-season shakes out. Let me run a quick list of my thoughts on the roster right now. Guys listed I feel are locks, guys in parentheses () are potential roster guys, and if he’s not on the list, he’s a longshot in my eyes:
- Russell Wilson – QB
- Thomas Rawls – RB
- Christine Michael – RB
- Doug Baldwin – WR
- Jermaine Kearse – WR
- Tyler Lockett – WR
- Paul Richardson – WR
- (Kevin Smith – WR)
- (Kasen Williams – WR)
- Jimmy Graham – TE
- Luke Willson – TE
- (Cooper Helfet – TE)
- Garry Gilliam – LT
- Justin Britt – LG
- Patrick Lewis – C
- Mark Glowinski – RG
- J’Marcus Webb – RT
- (Kristjan Sokoli – C)
- (Drew Nowak – C)
- (Terry Poole – T)
- (Bradley Sowell – T)
I ranked these guys in order (by position), so I think it’s more likely Kevin Smith makes it over Kasen Williams, but neither is a sure thing. I think Helfet is here for insurance, but it wouldn’t shock me for the team to draft another tight end, or sign a guy off the free agent scrap heap who’s a quality blocker. I think the team likely keeps one of Sokoli/Nowak and one of Poole/Sowell, depending on who looks best in the pre-season. Anyway, that’s the offense. I think we have a minimum of 16 offensive players already under contract, with the potential (though unlikely) of up to 21 players. The Seahawks will need around 24-25 offensive players by the time the regular season starts.
- Cliff Avril – DE
- Michael Bennett – DE
- Frank Clark – DE
- Cassius Marsh – DE
- (Chris Clemons – DE)
- Ahtyba Rubin – DT
- Sealver Siliga – DT
- Jordan Hill – DT
- (A.J. Francis – DT)
- Bobby Wagner – LB
- K.J. Wright – LB
- Mike Morgan – LB
- Brock Coyle – LB
- Kevin Pierre-Lewis – LB
- (Eric Pinkins – LB)
- Richard Sherman – CB
- Jeremy Lane – CB
- DeShawn Shead – CB
- Tharold Simon – CB
- (Tye Smith – CB)
- (Marcus Burley – CB)
- Earl Thomas – S
- Kam Chancellor – S
- Kelcie McCray – S
- Steven Terrell – S
As we learned recently, there’s relatively little guaranteed money in the Clemons signing, which means he’s going to have to earn his spot in the pre-season. As the team is likely to draft a defensive end relatively high, it could be a tough roster spot to win. I think the team likes Francis a lot, so his spot largely comes down to how high another defensive tackle is drafted, and how well that player performs. Pinkins has always been a bubble guy, but he’s stuck around for the most part. Smith and Burley might have a lot to prove, as I feel like the team will be in the market for another tall, outside corner, meaning there might not be many nickel corner spots to go around. I have it as at least 20 defensive players already on the roster, with potential for up to 25. Considering the max is probably 25-26 defensive players, I wouldn’t bank on me having all 25 predicted right now.
- Steven Hauschka – K
- Jon Ryan – P
- (Drew Ferris – LS)
I don’t know where the Seahawks are going with their long snapper position, and I don’t want to know. Just make it a guy who won’t fuck up, ever.
That exercise more or less gives us an idea of what the Seahawks need heading into the draft. A backup quarterback, probably two more running backs and a fullback, maybe a wide receiver and/or a tight end. Maybe 2-3 offensive linemen (particularly a Center of the Future who can sit and watch and bulk up in his first year). You always like to create competition among the pass rush – so probably one of each as far as end and tackle are concerned. Probably not a linebacker, unless you find an undrafted guy or a late-round guy you like a lot. Maybe a corner and maybe a safety to add to the depth there.
At the moment, the Seahawks have 9 draft picks. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Seahawks move down once or twice, build up to 11 or 12 draft picks if they can. But, assuming we’ve just got the 9, let’s take a look at where they are:
- First round – 26th
- Second round – 56th
- Third round – 91st
- Third round – 97th
- Fourth round – 124th
- Fifth round – 171st
- Sixth round – 215th
- Seventh round – 225th
- Seventh round – 247th
The great thing about this draft is how strong it is along both the offensive and defensive lines. So, that Center of the Future I’m talking about? You can probably find him in the third or fourth round. And, unless a real dominant pass-rushing force of a defensive tackle falls to you at 26, you can probably get an all-around good guy/run stuffer in the third or fourth round. So, while you could argue those are the two biggest needs (C and DT), you probably don’t need to draft either of those in the first two rounds, unless you find someone really special.
Among the other highly-pressing needs this team has, we’re talking about the guard/tackle position on the offensive line, and a pass-rushing end on the defensive side. While you like to find starters for your team in the first two rounds, the Seahawks have so few holes on their roster that it seems pretty improbable they’re going to draft either of these positions and find guys who will start right away. Gilliam seems pretty entrenched as the team’s left tackle (and looks pretty studly, from the videos I’ve seen of his workout routines), and Britt is probably locked in at guard, considering he’s been a starter since day 1, he has experience, and he’ll be going into the second straight year as this team’s left guard (that consistency – not jerking him around from spot to spot – will hopefully help him to improve his overall technique). Likewise, when you’re talking about the team’s defensive ends, Avril and Bennett are the guys. Clark has a leg up over everyone, and Marsh has experience to probably fend off any defensive end we pick at either of the first two draft spots.
Nightmares of Lawrence Jackson notwithstanding, you hope to at least find a rotation guy at 26, if you go the defensive end route.
Since we’re talking about the Seahawks – a team that had Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin securely under contract, then went out and drafted Christine Michael in the 2nd round anyway – you have to talk about the possibility of John Schneider and Pete Carroll going rogue in the first two rounds. Ultimately, I think the Seahawks draft Best Player Available with their first pick, if not their first two picks (though, it’s hard to see them not taking a pass rusher with either one). So, if a quality cornerback or tight end falls to them late in the first round – even though those are two positions I believe the Seahawks are particularly strong in, and therefore should be among the last positions the team targets in the draft – it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. Even running back has to be on the table here. I like Rawls as much as the next guy, and while I think they could go so far as to ignore the running back position altogether in the draft (and pick up someone like Arian Foster after the draft, to be in the RB rotation), it wouldn’t shock me if they saw Beastmode 2.0 fall to them at 26 and take him. For as important as the running game is to Pete Carroll, don’t rule it out.
If I had my druthers, I’d have the Seahawks pick two of the following three spots in the first two rounds: offensive guard/offensive tackle and defensive end.
In the third & fourth rounds, where the Seahawks have three picks, I’d like to see a center, a defensive tackle, and either a quality cornerback, or a third down running back.
In the fifth and sixth rounds, I’d like to see whatever they don’t get in that last pairing (either a cornerback or third down running back) and an outside linebacker to push Mike Morgan as we replace Bruce Irvin.
In the seventh round, I think the Seahawks pick up another offensive lineman (whatever they don’t draft – guard or tackle – in the first two rounds), and either another running back, a fullback, or a project at either cornerback, safety, or tight end.
And, if I have to be specific, let’s make it so:
- First round – Offensive Guard
- Second round – Defensive End
- Third round – Center
- Third round – Defensive Tackle
- Fourth round – Running Back
- Fifth round – Cornerback
- Sixth round – Outside Linebacker
- Seventh round – Offensive Tackle
- Seventh round – Fullback