King Felix Returned & The Mariners Kicked Some Ass

This offense is an unstoppable killing machine right now, and it’s coming at you from all directions!

Last night, the Mariners overwhelmed the Astros 13-3 behind that awe-inspiring offense and some solid pitching from our Ace.  Felix went 6 innings, giving up 3 runs on 8 hits, 1 walk, and striking out 6.  That’s your run of the mill Quality Start, but against this Astros team it’s pretty impressive.  It’s like the equivalent of no-hitting the A’s or something.

This game was all about the bats, and they got started early:

  • Dyson RBI double in the second
  • Haniger RBI single in the third
  • Valencia 2-run single in the third
  • Zunino 3-run bomb in the third
  • Gamel & Seager solo bombs in the fourth
  • Valencia & Dyson scored on a 2-base wild pitch in the seventh
  • Motter scored on another wild pitch in the seventh
  • Cruz scored on a throwing error in the eighth

Every starter but Cano had a hit.  Segura, Gamel, Seager, Dyson, and Zunino each had 2 hits; Valencia went 4 for 5.  Like I said, it came from everywhere.

And, to top it off, we got to see Yovani Gallardo in relief with a huge lead under his belt.  He got the 3-inning save by sparing the rest of the bullpen, and to top it off he actually didn’t give up any runs.  WHAT A CONCEPT!

Of course, Gallardo is still with us because the Mariners sent Andrew Moore back to Tacoma.  I know it sounds crazy in a vacuum, but the team has 2 off-days next week and will have no use for a fifth starter.  They can give Moore a controlled start in Tacoma to keep him fresh, and bring him back after 10 days.

What this means for our bullpen at that point is anyone’s guess.  My thinking is that, with Gallardo essentially locking down that long relief role (taking it away from the revolving door from Tacoma), the M’s will make Altavilla the odd man out, to work on his mechanics in AAA.  Not the worst idea I’ve ever heard.

Gaviglio gets another start tonight against the best team in the league.  Our 6-game winning streak is in serious jeopardy.

Dan Altavilla Sure Looks Like The Second Coming Of Bobby Ayala

This one looked like a picture-perfect, textbook Mariners victory.  Ariel Miranda coughed up a couple of solo homers in the first couple innings before settling down to go 7 innings, giving up just those 2 runs, on 4 hits, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts.  Nelson Cruz jacked a 2-run homer in the bottom of the first, Taylor Motter hit a solo homer out to left in the bottom of the second, and Ben Gamel added to the Mariners’ lead with a solo homer of his own to dead center in the bottom of the seventh.  All we needed was someone to bridge the game from Starter to Closer.

The tricky part was that Nick Vincent – our usual bridge guy – was unavailable, due to his back-to-back 1.1 inning performances the last two days.  Tony Zych was unavailable due to what we would later learn to be an illness.  I have to believe they wanted to save James Pazos unless it was an absolute emergency, considering he too had pitched the previous two days.

Which meant that the only right-handed relievers available for that eighth inning were Dan Altavilla, Steve Cishek, or Max Povse.  It would be pretty fucked up to make Povse’s Major League debut a tense eighth inning affair with a narrow lead, and Cishek is another guy who pitched the previous two days.

So, that left Altavilla, who was rested, but also fresh off of a 3-homer performance down in Texas on Saturday.

This really hasn’t been Altavilla’s season.  I don’t know what to make of his total and complete lack of command.  He got the late-season call up last year and was dominant.  But, this year, he’s been all over the place.  Sometimes, he looks unhittable, and zips through these innings no problem; other times, he falls apart and gets pounded into submission.  In his 25 appearances this year for the Mariners, he’s given up runs in 10 of them; that’s unacceptable.  He’s got the live fastball; he’s got the slider that has righties swinging for the dirt.  But, he leaves too many balls in the middle of the zone (when he’s not entirely missing the zone and walking a bunch of guys).

I didn’t see what he looked like on Saturday, but I watched him last night.  His first sin was walking the leadoff hitter, Ian Kinsler.  Kinsler was able to steal second on the perfect pitch (a slider low and away), but Altavilla really wasn’t doing a whole lot to keep him close to the bag at first.  He was able to strike out the next couple guys, but then did an ATROCIOUS job of keeping Kinsler close at second, who was allowed to have a huge lead to steal third base easily.  The fact that the pitch on that steal was another slider that got away from Zunino was also pure Altavilla.  I know you want those strikeout pitches buried in the ground, but he was spiking those fucking things five feet in front of home plate!

The subsequent solo homer to J.D. Martinez, though, that was pure Ayala.  Just a fat middle-middle meatball that he crushed to the opposite field seats.  I mean, I don’t understand how you go from absolutely OWNING Miguel Cabrera in the previous at-bat (utilizing your live fastball, brushing him off the plate, only to get him to watch your slider cover the outside corner for strike three) to being so careless with a guy like Martinez, who is another premiere slugger in this league.  It’s what made Bobby Ayala so maddening back in the day.  He had a plus fastball and a devastating splitter that could’ve laid waste to the American League.  But, all too often, as he fell off the left side of the mound, he’d leave those pitches up and out over the plate to get crushed.

Is it a concentration thing?  Or, are they just not able to control where their pitches go?  Either way, it’s something that needs to be fixed in a hurry, because I don’t really see a ton of other options in the minors with the kind of upside Altavilla demonstrates.  Who knows, maybe Max Povse will be the guy, but it’s way too early in his career to put that on him.

The Mariners squandered a 2-on, 1-out situation in the bottom of the eighth, with the heart of the order at the plate, and after that I went to bed.  Granted, they got good and Bucknor’d on that strikeout to Jarrod Dyson to end the inning, but all three of the guys who made outs in that inning (including the also-hot-hitting Nelson Cruz and Danny Valencia) were letting juicy sliders waft past them for strikes without even offering a swing.  One of the more frustrating half-innings I’ve seen in a while that didn’t involve the Mariners leaving someone on third base with less than two outs.

Edwin Diaz and Steve Cishek each worked scoreless innings to get us to the bottom of the tenth, where the Mariners scored the game-winning run on a Kyle Seager double (Tyler Smith pinch ran for Cruz and scored from second after a wild pitch).  I guess the joke is on me that the Mariners did all these cool things after I went to bed; I’ll somehow have to console myself with the good night’s sleep I enjoyed.

In the Kudos Department, Gamel had 3 more hits (including the aforementioned homer), Cruz was on base 4 times (with the aformentioned 2-run homer), Zunino had another hit to keep the good times rolling, Motter had a couple hits as Jean Segura works his way back in his rehab assignment (with a probable return tomorrow or Friday), and Seager had the heroics in extras.

I’d also like to circle back to Ariel Miranda, who got short shrift with all this Altavilla talk.  That’s an amazing bounce-back performance after his dud in Minnesota last week.  No hits after the third inning!  I would’ve complimented him on saving the bullpen in this one, but obviously what happened was outside of his control.

It does beg to wonder what things will look like tonight if the Mariners are in a position to win.  That’s three straight days with an appearance for Diaz and Cishek, so I have to believe those guys are sitting.  That most likely slots Vincent as our closer, with some combo of Zych and Pazos in the eighth.  Here’s to hoping Paxton has his mechanics working again, because we’re gonna need him.  Here’s also to hoping the offense gets on its horse so we don’t have to sweat one out in the late innings.

Mariners Win In Texas For First Time Since April 2016

Due to a scheduling quirk.  And some focused ineptitude.

After a couple of shitbird 10-4 losses, the Mariners went up against Yu Darvish in the series finale.  While he’s been Ace-like for most of his career, the Mariners have had curious bouts of competence against him, and yesterday was no exception.  5 runs in 5 innings to put the M’s in the driver’s seat.  Then, Nick Vincent shut things down after some shaky bullpen work in the seventh, bridging it to the ninth.  By then, it was no longer a save situation, but Edwin Diaz still locked down the 7-3 victory to make things not so bad.

Kyle Seager had 3 doubles, 2 runs, and 3 RBI; Ben Gamel continues to hit everything in sight; and Danny Valencia had a 2-run homer in the first to really put the Mariners on solid footing.

Christian Bergman had his final start before both Felix and Iwakuma come off the DL for this weekend’s Astros series.  He went 5.2 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits, 2 walks, and 1 strikeout.  The question now is:  has he done enough to stick around in this rotation?

With Felix and Kuma back, with Miranda and Paxton being too good to take out of the rotation (recent starts notwithstanding), there are now three pitchers for one spot:  Bergman, Gaviglio, and Gallardo.  Gaviglio and Gallardo will both have starts in this upcoming Tigers series and then a decision will have to be made.

I’m already on record as stating Gallardo needs to go.  Of course, he’ll catch on with some other team and absolutely destroy his opponents for the rest of the year, but that’s just the way that goes.  If he stays, he’ll continue to suck; we just have to hope he goes to the National League and we get an Out of Sight/Out of Mind situation.

As for the Bergman vs. Gaviglio question, I’ll try to render an opinion after tonight’s start.  Oh yes, it’s really that close, and might come down to how Gaviglio looks in a Do Or Die situation.  Stay tuned.

In Long Relievers – They’re Just Like Us News:  Rob Whalen got the boot in favor of Max Povse (in the process, Dillon Overton got DFA’d to make room on the 40-man).  Povse has a ton of upside and is making the jump from AA, so this could be a little more interesting than someone set to eat up a few innings before an immediate demotion (in all likelihood, if Povse does well, I could see him replacing Altavilla, but we’re getting ahead of ourselves here).

Starting tonight, the Mariners enjoy a stretch of 16 of the next 19 at home heading into the All Star Break.  For the first time in forever, the Mariners actually get to play a home series immediately preceeding those three days off, so it’s nice that they don’t have to travel if they don’t want to.  The time is now:  the Mariners REALLY need to do well to get back in this Wild Card hunt, or fucking lose me forever.

Probably not.  I’m a sucker for this stupid team.

Another Fucking Day, Another Fucking 10-4 Defeat

Oh weird, Yovani Gallardo buried the Mariners again after one inning.  Didn’t see that coming.

Between his incompetency and Dan Altavilla’s volatility, the Mariners had another bad day.  Not even the resurgence of Mike Zunino (1 for 4 with a 3-run homer, batting average nearing .250) could stop the bleeding.

I was off watching Tool at the Gorge last night, so I have nothing to say about this one either.  The Mariners have a good offense, but when you’re constantly putting them in a hole early, you’re not doing them any favors.  I don’t care about Bergman’s last start, or Gaviglio’s overall meh-ness; Gallardo needs to fucking go as soon as our other starters start returning from injury.

In Transaction News:  Zac Curtis was sent back to the minors and Rob Whalen was called up.  He went just the two scoreless innings yesterday, so we’ll see if he gets to stay with the Big League ballclub or not.  It’s gotta suck to be Tacoma’s manager and try to fill out a starting rotation.

The 2017 Mariners Have Still Never Been Over .500

That was as unlucky of a 2-1 defeat as you’ll ever see.  Down 1-0 on a solo homer in the fourth, Christian Bergman was working around a moderate jam in the fifth.  With two outs, he got Joe Mauer to bounce one to second base.  At the time, you could’ve made an argument that they would’ve given Bergman a shot at going six innings in this one.  But, not so fast, because the ball booted off the heel of Robinson Cano’s glove to put runners at the corners.  The lead runner was past third base enough for the M’s to potentially have a shot at picking him off, but Cano couldn’t get a clean grip on the ball.  By the time he did, it was too late and he should’ve eaten it.  Instead, he tried to rush the ball to third, saw it skip past Kyle Seager, allowing the runner to turn around and score.

Two errors, one play, by a guy who had one error all season.

In the bottom of the fifth, Jarrod Dyson led off with a triple.  One out and a Boog Powell walk later, Ben Gamel hit a sac fly to score Dyson.  Guillermo Heredia hit a single to right to put runners on the corners, which brought up Robbie with a chance to atone for his sins in the top half of the inning.  He hit a screaming liner to center that looked like it was going to score the go-ahead runs for the Mariners, but Byron Buxton made a crazy leaping catch to end the inning.

There’s probably only a small handful of guys who are able to track that ball and make that catch.

The bullpens kept the game the same on into the bottom of the eighth, with the heart of the order coming up.  Cano and Seager singled to put runners at first and second; with one out, the hero of the previous night – Mike Zunino – stepped to the plate.  He didn’t have a particularly good game in this one heading into the at bat, but all of that would’ve changed had he gotten ahold of one.  On a 1-0 pitch, Zunino smashed a liner right at the pitcher that almost certainly would’ve scored the tying run.  But, he hit it right into the pitcher’s glove, who was able to easily double off Cano at second to end the threat.

There would be no blown save for Minnesota’s closer on this night, as he came into the ninth and went 1-2-3.

What can you do, you know?  The confluence of events to get that game to go in Minnesota’s favor was pretty astounding.  Bergman once again pitched good enough to keep the Mariners in the ballgame (funny how he rarely seems to have Gallardo’s problem of The Big Inning, but that’s neither here nor there) and the bullpen pitched good enough to give the Mariners the win.  Four shutout innings by Pazos, Cishek, Scrabble, and Altavilla.

Offensively, we’re talking about 0 for 7 with RISP, which obviously won’t get the job done on many nights.  The Mariners will try again to get back to .500 (and maybe over .500) against the Blue Jays this weekend.  Sam Gaviglio goes tonight, which is cause for concern.  The fact that the Blue Jays have practically everyone back and healthy is another cause for concern, considering they were pretty beaten down by injuries the last time we played them last month, and they still managed to sweep the M’s in a 4-game series.  On top of all of that, we have to deal with a park full of insufferable Blue Jays fans.  Part of me wants to go to Safeco this weekend and mix it up, but the rest of me knows the Mariners are just going to lose anyway, because we always fucking lose to Toronto.

On a minor positive note, both Drew Smyly and Hisashi Iwakuma threw off of a mound yesterday.  It’s not much, but it’s an important next step.  Also, Mitch Haniger had a good game down in Tacoma, drawing the game-winning walk.  And, word around the team is that Nelson Cruz should be back tonight, but we’ll see.

The Mariners Chopped The Twins Up With An Axe

It was a 12-3 win for the Mariners that was about 95% impressive hitting performance and 5% solid pitching.  12 runs on 12 hits and 5 walks, 7 for 12 with RISP; homers from Cano and Seager, doubles from Valencia and Seager.  Heredia had 2 hits and 2 runs scored; Valencia had a bases-clearing 3-run double; Cano had 3 RBI and 3 runs scored; Seager had 4 RBI; Motter had a couple of hits and a really impressive sac fly.  Just about everyone had a say in this, and the best part is that the Mariners racked up all their runs by the fourth inning, so it was a nice, relaxing coast to the finish line.

James Paxton was rock solid through the first three innings, but as the Mariners offense did their thing, leaving Paxton with longer and longer between-innings breaks, he got tripped up.  He ended up going 5 innings, giving up 3 runs to get the win, but as I alluded to before, not a start to write home about.

Zych, Altavilla, and Vincent combined to go the final four innings, keeping the Twins off the board, which is all you could really ask for.  The best part of this game, honestly, is how the Mariners forced them into using 5 relievers of their own.  Here’s to hoping that sets things up poorly for them these next two games.

Nelson Cruz was pulled from this one pretty early with a tight calf – the same one that’s been nagging him for a while now.  Considering the Mariners had amassed such a powerful lead, it didn’t bite us in the ass, but here’s to hoping he’s able to come back tonight.

The M’s are now 29-30, which is pretty great, all things considered.  They’re 13 games behind the Astros – who are keeping pace with the 2001 Mariners of all teams, for Christ’s sake – but they’re just 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot.  Remember when they were down around the Royals for last in the American League?  Now there are only two teams between us and the Baltimore Orioles.  Thankfully, like last year, the A.L. East has a lot of good teams, which means they should spend the majority of the season beating up on one another.  You gotta figure one of those teams will take the brunt of the pounding, opening up that second Wild Card for a plucky little team from the Central or West.  Why not us, right?

Well, Felix made his first rehab start in Tacoma last night and got pounded in his two innings of work.  So … that’s neat.  Mitch Haniger also DH’d for the first time in Tacoma and went 1 for 4 with a run scored.

In further good news, Jean Segura is improving by leaps and bounds.  He might start doing baseball-like things in the next week or so!  On top of that, there were reports all over Twitter last night that Segura is going to sign a 5-year, $70 million deal (effectively buying out his final Arb year next year), with a possible sixth option year for $17 million.  Given the way contracts go in baseball, that’s a VERY reasonable figure for a guy with his skillset.  So much for the idea of selling at the trade deadline, I guess.

Paxton’s Return Is A Sight For Sore Eyes

How crazy is it that James Paxton didn’t totally have it last night – his first Major League game since May 2nd – and he still managed 5.1 innings of 3-hit shutout ball?  How crazy is it that James Paxton has thrown shutout ball in 5 of his 7 starts this season?  This guy is unbelievable!  Now please, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, stay healthy the rest of the season!

In winning four in a row to close out the month, the Mariners managed to go 14-14 in May.  They’re a game up on the A’s and only THIRD-worst in the American League.  They’re also, not for nothing, 3.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot, because say what you will about teams like the Astros and Yankees running away with things, but all these teams contending for the second Wild Card spot are PRETTY mediocre.

Now we settle into what appears to be – on paper – a very enjoyable month of June.  19 out of 27 games at home, 3 total off days (including 2 in the middle of long homestands), only have to go as far east as Minnesota, only three games (at home) against the unstoppable Astros, no stupid games in National League parks, the luxury of two more games against the hapless Philadelphia Phillies.  I mean, I could go on and on, but this month should be a delight!

So, you know, watch the Mariners muck it up somehow.

10 more hits for the offense last night, but only 3 for 11 with RISP.  Nevertheless, the Mariners jumped out to an early 3-0 lead in the second, and were able to tack on a couple more as the game went on; none of the runs attributed to homers, which is nice.  It’s nice that the Mariners can score in bunches and don’t just have to rely on the long ball.  Seager, Valencia, and Zunino each had two hits apiece (Valencia with 2 RBI to boot); Ben Gamel had a hit and a couple more RBI; Cruz, Segura, and Dyson all got in on the action as well.

Is it a coincidence that the Mariners have won four in a row, and the bullpen has been fantastic in that span?  Absolutely not!

  • Shutout in Boston:  2 innings by Pazos, Vincent, and Diaz
  • 6-5 win in Colorado:  4 shutout innings by Pazos, Zych, Vincent, Scrabble, Altavilla, and Diaz
  • 10-4 win in Colorado:  4 innings, 2 runs by Lawrence, Zych, Scrabble, and Altavilla
  • Shutout in Seattle last night:  3.2 innings by Cishek, Pazos, and Vincent

We’re going to need to see the bullpen continue to do this, pretty much for the rest of the season and not in these temporary bursts, but at least we’re starting to see something from these guys.  The next step, of course, is to get more consistent performances from our starters, to take some of the pressure off of them.

Particular kudos to Steve Cishek last night for getting out of that jam in the 6th without giving up any of his inherited runners.  I’d LOVE to see more of that going forward as well.

Today, we go for the sweep, with Gallardo on the mound.  I wish I could say I have even a little bit of confidence in him getting the job done, but all I can think about is how happy I am that this is a weekday afternoon game so I don’t have to subject my eyes to this nonsense.

The Mariners Salvaged A 4-4 Road Trip

And in doing so, they got through a left-handed starter!

After their season’s offensive nadir – back-to-back shutout losses in Boston – the Mariners started hitting again.  They had 16 hits in the finale against the Red Sox, and 10 more hits against the Rockies the next day, but they only had a combined 11 runs to show for it.  It was only a matter of time before their hitting with RISP turned around, and indeed that day was yesterday.  19 hits and 10 runs against the Rockies, while going 6 for 15 with RISP, in a 10-4 victory.

Segura had 4 hits; Cano had 2 hits, 2 runs, and an RBI; Gamel had 3 hits in relief of Nelson Cruz – who left early in the game with a strained calf – Heredia had 3 hits; Zunino had 2 hits.  But, the star of the show was Kyle Seager:  3 for 5 with a double, a homer, 3 runs scored and 4 RBI.  I wouldn’t say Seager is explosively hot right now, but he’s got 5 doubles over the last week, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him really start to pour it on heading into June.

Ariel Miranda was rolling through 4 innings, gave up a couple runs in the 5th, and was pulled after that for a pinch hitter (because stupid National League rules).  The bullpen really did a fine job, though.  Casey Lawrence ate up 2.2 innings, giving up just the 1 run.  Scrabble was able to get us out of a mini-jam in the 8th, when this thing still could’ve gone sideways, and Altavilla got through the ninth after the Mariners padded their lead beyond the need for their closer.

I don’t have a lot to add, other than James Paxton returns tonight.  Like Blowers mentioned on the broadcast last night, I too would expect Paxton to be on a bit of a limited pitch count.  Ryne Harper was sent back to Tacoma without making an appearance, which is really a good news/bad news situation (bad news for him, anyway, as I’m sure he would’ve loved to have made his Major League debut).  If the Mariners can win tonight, they will salvage a 14-14 month of May, which again is another baby step in the right direction.  Considering the Mariners went 4-12 in the middle part of the month, that’s a nice turnaround.

The post below this talks about why the Mariners probably won’t be huge sellers at the deadline, so feel free to dig into that one if you need more to read.

Why It Doesn’t Make Sense To Blow Up The Mariners

It’s always alarming when people start talking about tearing a team down and doing a full-on rebuild, particularly when it’s a team like the Mariners, who had the hype and expectations they had coming into the season.  Indeed, it’s more than just alarming; it’s discouraging, frustrating, enraging, you name it.  It also makes sense in a lot of ways.  The Mariners have an aging roster with guys like Cano and Cruz on offense, and guys like Felix and Iwakuma on the pitching staff, on top of various role players and guys on 1-year deals.  When you factor that in with how this team has underperformed, is staring down the barrel of last place, with a few guys making a lot of money, and then take a look at how barren the farm system is, and yeah, I can see why people might be clamoring for a tear down.  Get the nasty taste of Jackie Z and Howard Lincoln out of our mouths once and for all, start fresh with the new ownership group and the new GM.

Now, normally, when you do this, you have someone on your roster who you choose to build around, but I’m hearing people talking about trading Cruz, Cano, Felix, (obvs) and Kyle Seager?  Not that Seager is some stud superstar or anything, but he’s not old, he’s not particularly overpaid, and you figure he’s got a lot of years left of being a productive player at this level.

But, here, I’m getting ahead of myself.  Let’s say, for the sake of argument that the Mariners continue to be terrible on into July and anyone and everyone is on the table for trade.  I want to go through the roster line by line, so to speak, and tell you why it doesn’t make a ton of sense to blow the whole thing up.

Any conversation in this area is going to start with Robinson Cano.  We’re currently in the fourth year of a 10-year deal, where he’s making $24 million per season.  He’s 34 years old and still putting up All Star numbers.  He has that DL stint under his belt already this year, which is an obvious concern (given his age), and that contract is pretty prohibitive for a lot of teams.  Smaller market cities just flat out won’t be able to afford him; teams at the top of the league in payroll are going to be VERY wary of bringing on such a huge deal.  So, right there, you’re chopping off maybe half the league, not even factoring in the teams who have a need for a second baseman, who are also in contention and willing to be buyers at the deadline.  Oh, and by the way, Cano has a full no-trade clause, so he’d have to agree to any deal.  The bottom line is, there’s no way the Mariners are trading Cano without opting to eat a significant portion of his salary, in which case why even bother?  We’re not at a point where he’s a cancer in the organization.  And, even if we did trade him while eating a bunch of money, we STILL probably won’t get anyone of value in return.  That’s, like, a million whammies against this ever happening.  Next.

Nelson Cruz.  He’s even older than Cano, at 36 years of age, but he’s in the third year of a 4-year deal.  He’s still playing at an All Star level, but he’s also just a DH.  He can only play the outfield in National League games, and I’m not totally sure he can even play on back-to-back days.  That SEVERELY limits his value.  It takes out the entire National League, for starters, as he can’t play any other defensive position than right field.  So, he’s a DH.  I’m sure an American League team would welcome him with open arms, but he immediately limits a team’s flexibility to give guys DH “rest” days late in the season.  His contract isn’t too terrible, at $14 million next year (and whatever pro-rated portion of that for the rest of this season), but again, you’re not talking about a guy who is going to bring back a lot of value.  Maybe a couple Quad-A guys, and some salary relief and that’s about it.  Next.

Felix Hernandez, of course.  He’s 31 years old, but he’s been in the Major Leagues since 2005 and has a lot of miles on his arm.  He spent significant time on the DL last year and again this year.  He’s making $26 million this year and next, and $27 million in 2019.  There’s a $1 million option for 2020 if he spends significant time on the DL with an elbow injury, otherwise he’ll be a free agent in 2020.  His performance has declined since 2014 (the last year he was really at an All Star level) with no reason to expect him to return to a consistent All Star level.  In short, trading Felix would be a straight-up salary dump for very low-level prospects.  And, on top of it, he too has a full no-trade clause.  Seems highly unlikely any team would take on the risk of a Felix Hernandez for that type of money, so this is another scenario where the Mariners would almost certainly have to eat some of that money.  He doesn’t have the type of emotional value anywhere else besides Seattle, so what would be his motivation to want to go elsewhere (aside from being a broken-down starter trying to back-door into a playoff appearance)?  Seems like a longshot at best that the Mariners are able to deal him at all.  Next.

Hisashi Iwakuma.  Will he even be healthy by July?  Let’s assume he is, for the sake of argument.  Well, he’s 36 years old right now.  He’s earning $14 million this year, so he’ll cost his new ballclub whatever the pro-rated amount of that is.  He’s 94 innings-pitched away from earning a guaranteed $15 million in 2018, which he could very well reach if he’s able to return by July (otherwise, it looks like 2018 is a $10 million club option year, and he could be released if he doesn’t reach the innings threshold).  Also, Kuma has a full no-trade clause.  His velocity has gone down significantly this season, he’s not making great progress in his rehab at the moment, and aside from 2016, he hasn’t proven to be very durable.  Throw him on the pile of guys I’ve already mentioned who won’t bring back much of anything in trade, aside from salary relief.

Boring and repetitive, no?  Let’s return to Kyle Seager then.  Here’s a guy with some real, actual value.  He’s 29 years old.  He’s on a contract for up to five more seasons after this year (2022 is a club option year with a buy-out).  He has yet to be prohibitively expensive, though his salary spikes starting in 2018 (between $18-$19 million per season over the next four years, while his 2022 season value could climb as high as $20 million if he reaches certain performance markers).  Again, though, that’s not an unreasonable number for a guy like Seager, who plays a solid third base, who is as durable as they get, who is consistent offensively (and has improved little by little every year).  This is a guy any team would love to have!  So, we get back to the usual questions:  which teams in contention also need a third baseman?  You could talk about moving him to second base in a pinch, but moving him to first base seems like a waste of his talents, and reduces much of his value.  I could see the Mariners getting a really valuable piece in return for Kyle Seager, but once you trade him, you’ve got an immediate hole at third base.  Who fills that void?  The Mariners don’t have anyone in the minors right now ready to step in there on an everyday basis.  If you trade Seager for a third base prospect, you still don’t know if that guy will pan out.  You’re essentially trading a sure thing for a lottery ticket, and you haven’t really helped your team out in any other areas.  Plus, Seager is a homegrown talent, and if you’re looking to unload salary elsewhere, you’re going to want to keep a guy like Seager around to help lessen the blow of the fact that the Mariners would (in this scenario) be getting rid of a lot of familiar faces.  However, if the Mariners are forced to keep guys like Cano, Felix, and Cruz (due to age and salary issues), then by all means, try to get as much as you can for Seager.  I just hope the backup plan at third base is a true asset and this won’t be a Robbing Peter to Pay Paul situation.

Jean Segura is under club control through 2018, so here’s another valuable piece.  Who wouldn’t want a guy like Segura?  You could stick him at short stop or second base, you can put him at the top of your lineup as he’s a hitting machine, he’s got plenty of pop in his bat to boot, and he’s cost-friendly from a contract perspective (his final Arb year is next year, but he’s a steal at $6.2 million this year, and should still be a bargain next year with whatever raise he gets).  You can unload Seager and Segura and get some high-level prospects back, but again those are a couple of really big holes to fill on the left side of your infield.

After that, I don’t know that you have a ton of value left to trade.  Smyly’s hurt, Gallardo is bad, Valencia is just okay, ditto Dyson and some of the veteran bullpen guys.  You’re not going to get much back in return, is my point.  The only other guys with value on the Mariners are younger guys:  Paxton, Haniger, Heredia, Gamel, Diaz, Altavilla, Pazos, but isn’t the whole point of a total roster rebuild to build AROUND that young core?  Wouldn’t you want to KEEP guys like Paxton, Haniger, Heredia, Gamel, Diaz, and the like?  Sure, you could get some decent prospects back, but at that point you’re REALLY trying to bottom out if you’re going to trade talent like this.  That’s more of a long-con like the Astros did, where they went after the #1 overall draft pick year after year after year.  Can the Mariners afford to wait that long, when they’re already the team with the longest playoff drought in the entirety of Major League Baseball?

I’ll talk a little more about Paxton here, since I’m thinking he’s a name people might want to trade.  Like Kuma, Paxton is a guy who has never proven he can stay healthy for a full season.  He hasn’t really had any significant arm trouble, but it’s been a lot of other things, and you have to think the significant arm trouble is on the horizon.  I just don’t know if you’re going to get the type of value for a guy like Paxton that you’d be happy with.  It makes more sense to hang onto him for the pennies he’s making now, let him build up value over the next few seasons (if he can), and reap the rewards of his ace-like performances while we can.

I dunno.  A total rebuild is a nice idea, particularly in a season like this where everything is going to shit, but I just can’t see it.  At best, the Mariners can unload salary, while getting some good prospects back for Seager and Segura, but it comes at a price:  knowing the Mariners won’t contend for anything for another 3-5 years or more.  Maybe you’re okay with that, but there’s another problem with “building for the future”:  even if you run into a Best Case Scenario, like with the Royals a few years ago, these things are short lived!  Guys get injured, guys underperform at random, guys become free agents and command huge deals on the open market.

Going back to the Royals, they were a bottom-feeder for almost 30 years!  They won the World Series in 1985, then didn’t make the playoffs again until 2014.  They made the World Series in back-to-back years in 2014 and 2015 (winning it all the second time around), then fell to .500 in 2016 and now, in 2017, they’re last in the American League.  THAT’S HOW FAST IT CAN ALL FALL APART!

Now, come back to the Mariners.  Again, I reiterate, the Mariners have the longest playoff drought in the entire Major Leagues.  They’re one of two teams who have never reached the World Series (with the Nationals/Expos), and one of 8 teams who have never won it all.  Only the Buffalo Bills have a longer playoff drought in all of the four major American professional sports.  You could make an argument that the Mariners, as presently constructed, are just a couple players away from being serious playoff contenders (particularly on the pitching side of things).  Are you willing to throw that all away, to start over fresh, without any guarantee whatsoever that tanking these next 3-5 years will bring about any sort of turnaround?  Just because it looks like it’s worked for the Astros doesn’t mean it will work for the Mariners.  And, even with the Astros on the rise, how long will it last?  Will they be the new Royals in three years?

TL;DR:  why do we even follow the sport of baseball?  ALL OF LIFE IS A MEANINGLESS FARCE!

The Mariners Might Actually Salvage A .500 Road Trip Later Today

After losing 2 of 3 in Washington, and then 2 of 3 in Boston, you start to wonder, “What’s the point?”  Yet, here we are, one win away from a 2-game sweep of the Rockies, thanks to a hard-fought 6-5 victory yesterday.

The Mariners had hits up and down the lineup, even Sam Gaviglio with a single that would come around to score.  Ben Gamel had a couple hits and a couple runs scored, Danny Valencia had 3 hits and an RBI, Mike Zunino had a couple hits and a walk, Kyle Seager had a double and 2 RBI.  And, once again, the Mariners left a bunch of runs out on the table, going 2 for 13 with RISP.  I would anticipate a huge breakout any day now.

Gaviglio was more or less rolling, giving up 3 runs in 5 innings, with a very low pitch count, before coming back out for the 6th.  He gave up back-to-back singles to lead off the inning before being pulled; both would come around to score.  Nevertheless, the Mariners had already scored their 6 runs by this point, and the bullpen would prove masterful in locking down the victory.

Pazos went 1.1 innings, Zych went 0.2; Vincent, Scrabble, and Altavilla mixed and matched and each got an out in the 8th inning, and Edwin Diaz looked downright dominant in closing things out in the 9th.

After a promising start to the month, where the Mariners went 6-2, they’ve been in a nosedive, winning only 4 of their next 16 games.  The Mariners have won 2 in a row here and time will tell if it’s just a blip in a much longer, more painful losing stretch, or if this is the beginning of the Great Turnaround.

On the plus side, James Paxton returns tomorrow.  The rotation for the next five days looks like this:  Miranda, Paxton, Gallardo, Bergman, and Gaviglio.  That’s obviously far from ideal, but Miranda has made great strides this year, as has Paxton before he got hurt (and Paxton was starting much further ahead than Miranda to boot, so it’s really saying something to say that Paxton has made a lot of strides); and Bergman and Gaviglio have looked semi-competent at times this season.  It’s encouraging to see Felix start to throw the ball pain-free (it’s less encouraging to see Iwakuma not-so-pain-free; and I’ll believe it when I see it for Smyly).  I don’t want it to sound like I’m getting my hopes up here or anything.  The REAL Great Turnaround for this season might not hit its stride until July or August, at which point it might be too late to mean anything as far as the playoffs are concerned.  I’m just looking for baby steps right now.  I’m looking for this team to not have to make daily roster moves between Seattle and Tacoma.  Then, I’ll be happy if Scott Servais can simply settle on a back-end of the bullpen that’s based on merit, and not based on whose arm is the freshest.  It’s got to be discouraging for someone like Jean Machi – who was solid for Seattle before he had to be sent back down, only to never get a repeat opportunity – or someone like Pagan, who had a wonderful 4-inning scoreless outing before going back to Tacoma.

Then, once we’re able to lock down the bullpen, wouldn’t it be nice to start getting guys back from injury without immediately seeing other guys have to go on the DL?  The Mariners will never be at 100% full strength, but wouldn’t it be nice to see them at 90 or 95% full strength, for like a full month or more?  I KNOW, look at the big dreamer over here; next thing I’ll be asking for is fresh air and clean drinking water!

This is why I don’t feel even remotely sorry for Angels fans for Mike Trout going on the DL for 6-8 weeks.  Talk to me when you’ve had to start Chase De Jong FOUR TIMES.