Exactly How Fucked Are The Seahawks?

The Seahawks sit at 6-3, with a game tonight against the 5-4 Atlanta Falcons.  If the Seahawks win, they’ll take over first place in the NFC West (thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker from Week 5); if the Seahawks lose, they’ll be overtaken from the playoffs and fall into the mediocre pack with the likes of the very same Falcons, Lions, Packers, Cowboys, and Redskins.  So, yeah, tonight’s game is pretty huge.

But, it’s not just about one game, the season hangs in the balance.  The Seahawks, once again, are decimated by injuries.  Kam Chancellor now joins the likes of:

  • Richard Sherman
  • Cliff Avril
  • George Fant
  • Rees Odhiambo
  • Chris Carson
  • C.J. Prosise
  • DeShawn Shead
  • Tre Madden
  • DeAndre Elliott
  • Malik McDowell

And that’s not even counting guys like Luke Joeckel, Duane Brown, Jarran Reed, Eddie Lacy, Earl Thomas (guys who have missed considerable time due to injury) and all the guys currently playing through pain because that’s just what football players do.

It’s absolutely unfathomable that the Seahawks should have to go through this two years in a row.  Sure, everyone has injuries here and there, but few teams are suffering the volume of injuries – and to elite superstars – at the rate the Seahawks are.  For a run of football that’s been pretty astounding, just how historically good could this Seahawks team (under Pete Carroll) have been if they’d stayed relatively healthy.  It’s one thing when you lose a guy for a game or two; but we’re falling HARD, and for the rest of the year!

How is this defense going to look without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor?  I would venture to guess:  not too good.  Also, not for nothing, but facing the passing attack of the Altanta Falcons couldn’t have come at a worse time.  Sure, it’ll be nice having Earl Thomas back in the fold, but now we get to see what a defense looks like with E.T. and a bunch of nobodies.  If he can somehow hold this thing together, he truly will be this team’s MVP.

It would be nice if the defensive line could step its game up and make more of an impact, but that doesn’t seem too realistic.  Opponents are conditioned to get the ball out quick as it is; there’s no reason for that to change now.  If anything, they’re going to continue to get the ball out quick and guys are going to be MORE open than they’ve been.

Also, get ready for teams to pick on Jeremy Lane constantly.  That should be fun.  If you thought the fanbase was sick and tired of that guy before, just wait until he’s stuck trying to guard Julio Jones and giving up chunk plays left and right.

You’re not going to recognize this Seahawks team, that’s for sure.  On a consistent basis, going forward, this is going to be a team that gets gashed defensively way more than we’ve seen in the last half decade.  I don’t think they’ll start giving up 30+ every game; but I do think 24-28 is on the table against all but the very worst offenses.

So, what does that mean?  It means the Seahawks’ offense is going to have to carry the load.  I can’t tell you how many times I’ve written this, but ever since Russell Wilson entered the league, we as Seahawks fans have been waiting for the time where the switch flipped and it was the offense doing most of the work, while the defense just sort of coasts.  Well, the time has come, because I don’t think this defense is capable of carrying this team anymore.  And that’s frightening, because as we’ve seen all too often from this offense:  it generally sucks.

Oh, it has padded its stats against the likes of the non-Jaguars AFC South, but this offense is truly mediocre on a good day and downright shitty on the rest.  The running game stinks, which is an indictment of both the O-Line and the running backs on this roster.  It takes Russell Wilson anywhere from 1-3 quarters before he finally starts playing well, which is an indictment on him, the O-Line, and his ball-dropping receivers (not you, Doug Baldwin).  This whole unit – again, save Doug (please) – is riddled with sloppy, lazy play that constantly shoots this team in the foot.  For every 1 game this offense does its job and compensates for a lacking defense (Houston), there are at least 3 games where this offense failed and this team lost as a result (Green Bay, Tennessee, Washington).  We had no business losing ANY of those games, but we did, because this offense fucking sucks.

So, that’s what we’ve got to look forward to.  Tonight, and the rest of the season.  An offense that does its fucking job about 25% of the time, and a defense severely limited by injuries, with no help on the horizon, and so aged that it’s sure to only get more injury-riddled as the weeks go on.

Exactly how fucked are the Seattle Seahawks?  Very.  Very fucking fucked.

Seahawks Death Week: Looking On The Bright Side

Hey look, I get it, losing sucks.  Teams like the Seahawks have a finite championship window.  On the one hand, that’s a good thing because it means we have a good team.  The Cleveland Browns don’t have a finite championship window because they suck!  On the other hand, that championship window is going to close sooner or later, if it hasn’t already.  For what it’s worth, I think the future still looks pretty promising, but that obviously comes with the fact that they have work to do on the player personnel side.

Before I get into the promising future, let’s take a quick look back.  We’re at the end of the best 5-year run in franchise history!  56-23-1, or a .706 winning percentage.  That easily bests any of the best 5-year runs in the 80’s, as well as that superb 5-year run in the Holmgren years.  This includes the fact that we’ve won at least 10 games AND made the playoffs AND won at least one playoff game every season since 2012.  Only the Patriots have done that, and they enjoy the luxury of having the very worst divisional opponents this side of the AFC South.  On top of that, factor in 3 divisional championships, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and 1 championship, and you could say the Seahawks have been pretty hashtag-blessed in this run.

All the while, the Seahawks have remained one of the youngest teams in the NFL.  Now, more and more, that’s a result of the back-end of our roster being filled with rookies, but the players at the top are still in their primes, which means we’ve got at least 2-3 more years of this championship window left to stress over!

First and foremost, we’ve got a franchise quarterback.  You’re not going anywhere without a franchise quarterback.  Just ask those aforementioned Cleveland Browns, or the Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, New York Jets, and so on and so forth.  Even in those rare instances where a team rides its defense to a title, you’re never going to be able to achieve sustained success with that tactic.  Yeah, Peyton Manning stunk in 2015 and the Broncos won it all, but you saw what happened in 2016.  Due to salary cap constraints, players get poached.  Due to the law of averages, a defense largely healthy one year suffers a bevy of injuries the next.  I mean, go back through time of all the teams with elite defenses and crappy quarterbacks – 2002 Bucs, 2000 Ravens, 1985 Bears – did any of them repeat?  The Bears didn’t make another Super Bowl until the 2006 season; the Bucs haven’t been back period; and the Ravens didn’t win it all again until the 2012 season, at which time their defense was a shell of its former self, and they were able to ride the hot hand of Joe Flacco of all people.  The overwhelming majority of Super Bowl champions – and even Super Bowl participants – had either great quarterbacks, or average quarterbacks having great seasons.

Now, is there cause for concern about Russell Wilson’s 2016 season?  Sure felt like a step back to me, but I don’t know how much you can learn about a season when he’s hobbled and still running for his life because of that O-Line.  I think it all finally caught up to him, resulting in rushed throws, which in turn resulted in a lot of inaccurate throws.  Improved offensive line play will surely result in improved quarterback play.  Or, it’ll spell doom for a promising young player who looked like he was on the fast track to the Hall of Fame.

As I mentioned before, the wide receiver group is as strong as ever.  Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are great players.  Jermaine Kearse unquestionably had a down year in 2016, but he nevertheless brings a lot to the table with his blocking and his rapport with Wilson and the other receivers.  Paul Richardson came on like gangbusters after Lockett went down.  If we’re able to incorporate him more into this offense, we haven’t had a player with his combination of speed and catch radius EVER in the Pete Carroll era.  The person who comes closest is Sidney Rice in his prime, which I think this team would take in a heartbeat.  When you top it off with Jimmy Graham – who I believe this team not only needs to hang onto in 2017, but should probably look to extend out another 2-3 years to make his cap hits more reasonable – this offense has the weapons in the passing game to succeed.  They won’t need to hit the free agent or trade markets, nor will they need to look in the draft all that high.

Running back might be another story.  When healthy, you’ve got elite talent with Rawls and Prosise, but obviously you can’t count on either of them for a full 16-game season plus playoffs.  Alex Collins really started to play well towards the end of the season, so obviously I think you keep him in the mix.  But, this team will most definitely have to look in the draft for another quality back to throw onto the pile.

In talking about the O-Line, Justin Britt was a pleasant surprise and lone bright spot.  While there is plenty of work to do here, it’s nice to know at least ONE spot out of five is locked in.

Defensively, we’re still stacked up and down the lineup.  Bennett and Avril are still making lives miserable.  Frank Clark – already solid as a rookie – took a big leap forward in his second year, setting himself up for a HUGE third season, and likely a huge payday once next season concludes.  Along the interior, Rubin and Reed and the return of Tony McDaniel helped us maintain our status as one of the best run defenses in the league.  You never mind picking up extra talent in this group – particularly at the back end, to shore up the depth – but D-Line isn’t really the priority it has been the last couple years.

I was most impressed with our linebackers in 2016.  Bobby Wagner had a so-so 2015, and responded with the best season of his career this past year.  He was, in fact, the best linebacker in the entire NFL, which is no small feat.  Led the league in tackles, managed 4.5 sacks for a guy who doesn’t rush the passer a ton, and was just generally always around the football.  K.J. Wright continued being the most underrated defender in football, and the guy most deserving of a Pro Bowl invite who has yet to actually make it who finally got in this year!  This group didn’t see its strongside linebacker out on the field a lot, but when Mike Morgan came back from injury, he was a force, particularly in setting the edge on running plays.  Just, all around, the best linebacking unit in football, period.

The secondary, while it needs some work, has the broad strokes in place.  Richard Sherman didn’t have his best year (and, it sounds like half that year he was dealing with an MCL issue), but when he’s locked in on his side of the field, as you saw in the Detroit playoff game, he’s still a force to be avoided.  On the opposite side, DeShawn Shead got the starting nod and really acquitted himself well.  Unfortunately, they didn’t trust him enough to just leave him over there – as we saw more and more Richard Sherman following the other team’s best receiver – and I think that might’ve had something to do with our defense taking a step back.  At safety, Kam was his usual dominant self when he was on the field, and Earl was Earl (again, when he was on the field).  The fact that both of those guys missed some pretty extensive time this year, and the fact that our defense REALLY suffered accordingly, means this team has work to do in shoring up our depth in the secondary.  Those four guys, plus Jeremy Lane, were supposed to make the secondary this team’s #1 strength.  Instead, they were this team’s second-biggest weakness, when the likes of Kelcie McCray, Steven Terrell, DeAndre Elliott, and Neiko Thorpe were thrust into active duty.  Bolster the unit from the bottom up and we should see a return to former glories for the secondary.

The foundation is solid, is what I’m trying to get at!  Across the board, except for the O-Line.  We’ve just got to figure out a way to get the complementary pieces in place to get us through the hard times.  As luck would have it, 2017 presents a unique opportunity to really pump this team full of talent.  The Salary Cap should be upwards of $170 million.  Our dead money is currently less than $1 million.  Add that to our contracts already on file, we’ve spent approximately $135 million on our 2017 roster.  The best part, though?  Our list of unrestricted free agents is pretty weak.  The most expensive player on that list is Steven Hauschka, and we might end up looking in another direction at kicker anyway, given how poor of a season he had in 2016.  Then, there’s Luke Willson, who figures to test the market and see if he can get himself a starting job somewhere.  If he comes back to Seattle, it’ll likely be on a very reasonable deal.  As for starter types, Mike Morgan and Tony McDaniel could be had on small deals as well.  Beyond those guys, we’re talking about the bottom of the roster:  McCray, Sowell, Thorpe, Marcel Reece, Tukuafu, Jeron Johnson, Brandon Williams, and Damontre Moore.  So, you know, it’s not like there’s some big contract we need to take care of on our own roster.

I’m fuzzy at best as to what the free agent market is going to look like, but that’s a topic for another day.  For now, let’s just bask in the glow that we’ve got a very good football team, with some very smart people running the show, and we’re really not THAT far off from competing for the top seed in the NFC and the Super Bowl.

The 2016 Seahawks Have A 53-Man Roster

Labor Day weekend was spent, by me, watching college football, going to parts of Bumbershoot, and constantly refreshing Twitter to check out the cuts, the signings, the trades, and the practice squad picks.

I won’t get into the whole 53-man here, but I’ll talk a little bit about some of the noteworthy choices.  You can see how everything compares to my lone roster prediction here.

Scrolling from top to bottom, the first thing that sticks out is how the Seahawks waived Will Tukuafu, to eventually be replaced by Tani Tupou (who plays both fullback and defensive tackle).  For a while there, it looked like the Seahawks weren’t going to have ANY fullback, and people predictably lost their shit for some reason.  Beat writers spent most of the weekend reassuring people that this was all a cost-cutting effort by the team to avoid having a full season’s worth of salary guaranteed to the veteran Tukuafu; and that by having him sign AFTER week 1, the team would reach that goal.  Even though the Seahawks brought Tupou back, I think nothing has changed in that regard.  There was a reason why the team originally cut Tupou, and there’s a reason why he was still readily available all this time later.  Tupou will still be there in the coming weeks, if Tukuafu ever gets injured.  For one week, Tupou gets to show if he’s worth bringing back, should disaster strike the fullback position.

The next shocker comes in the form of Tanner McEvoy cracking the roster as the team’s fifth wide receiver.  I don’t know what this means for his prospects as a tight end.  I don’t even know if he’s healthy enough to practice after missing a couple weeks with a nagging injury.  I do know this speaks volumes about his potential, and that he was rightly sought after by other teams, and never would’ve made it to the Practice Squad.  What this means for him long term is anyone’s guess.  I’d wager we’ll see him as a healthy scratch more often than not, and he’s REALLY going to have to make strides in practice to not get passed over.

Regarding the O-Line, I had that unit nailed except for one guy.  Will Pericak indeed made it back onto the Practice Squad, while rookie George Fant – a tackle prospect – gets that 9th and final roster spot.  The ends justifies the means, I suppose.  I still like Pericak as a talented prospect, but it probably wouldn’t hurt this team to hang onto four tackles.  Sowell is no sure thing, Webb was beat out by Gilliam when he got the most guaranteed money of any of our free agent offensive lineman this offseason, and Gilliam has already failed in his charge of converting over to the left side, when that’s all he was working towards this offseason.  Fant will most certainly be a healthy scratch for most of the season, but hopefully he can learn the left tackle position and win the starting job in 2017.

On the D-Line, I rightly predicted Jordan Hill’s release, but I didn’t quite nail this team keeping the 5th D-Tackle.  Garrison Smith was claimed after the 49ers released him and hopefully he’ll help provide some of that interior pass rush Hill brought.  Either that, or let’s hope Quinton Jefferson as a rookie will make a big leap in the early going of his career.

For the rest of the defense, I see we let Pinkins go, which I probably should’ve seen coming.  Wishful thinking, I guess, but it’s no shocker considering the team has let him go before.  I also see that we kept 11 DBs when I thought that was too many initially.  Of course, my prediction differed GREATLY from what the team ultimately decided upon.

I had Marcus Burley, Tye Smith, and Brandon Browner all sticking.  Instead, we opted to hang onto Steven Terrell, DeAndre Elliott, and trade for Dewey McDonald from Oakland.  We had also traded for the 49ers’ L.J. McCray, but he has since failed his physical (hence the re-signing of Tupou above).  Burley’s a tough one to swallow, especially when it was rumored that the Seahawks made all of these moves in the secondary – in large part – to shore up our special teams coverage.  But, I guess the team likes Tharold Simon’s play on the outside more than keeping a third nickel guy.  Brandon Browner’s release wasn’t all that shocking, considering we never really saw him play much in the pre-season.  For all we like to think about this coaching staff trying to pull one over on the league, hiding players until the games matter, they actually do the opposite more times than not.  They don’t mind giving the league tape on our guys, because they also want to evaluate how these guys look in real game situations.

The biggest disappointment is Tye Smith.  He was a draft pick last year who the team kept on its 53-man roster the whole season, and he was a guy the team had high expectations for coming into 2016.  Hell, from the sounds of things, Tye Smith had high expectations about Tye Smith coming into 2016.  But, from what I saw, he never really flashed, never really made many impact plays, and was never really called out for excellent coverage skills by the broadcast team.  Not only was Tye Smith cut, but he wasn’t even brought back onto the Practice Squad!  He could still be out there on the ghost roster, ready to be picked up during the season should a need arise, or try out for the 90-man next offseason, but that’s a pretty big blow.  DeAndre Elliott, an undrafted rookie with a similar build to Smith, DID flash this pre-season.  I remember seeing him mix it up quite a bit.  He very well could be the next DeShawn Shead if he keeps at it, so that’s nice to see.

On the special teams, still no movement on the long snapper position.  Nolan Frese, you may be safe for another week!