Holy Mother Of God: The Mariners Are Over .500!

Look, I’m no hero.  I’m just a man.  A man who had an opportunity to go to a Mariners game last night, featuring the Major League debuts of starter Andrew Moore and reliever Max Povse, on a team that finally got back to .500 for the fourth time after falling to 33-37.  Do I hold a particular amount of good luck with my presence in the stadium?  Is there some magic elixir that permeates this organization when I stuff my face with beer and hot dogs and soft serve ice cream?  Like I said, I’m no hero; I’ll leave that conversation for someone else to have.

All I know is I was there!  And it was glorious!

It’s been extremely exciting and satifsying to have the full offense healthy and playing together for all of two days, and I hope to see it healthy and playing together for many, many more.  Jean Segura is the best leadoff man we’ve had since Ichiro.  Ben Gamel and Mitch Haniger are quintessential 2-hole hitters, easily interchangeable depending on the handedness of the starter.  Cano, Cruz, and Seager are a legitimate, superstar middle of the order.  Valencia’s streakiness makes him frustrating, but also makes him dangerous when he’s on a heater.  Heredia and Dyson are speedy, disruptive manaces who seem to always do something positive in just about every game.  And we all hold out hope that Zunino has turned things around enough to maintain his status as an everyday catcher in this league.

The point is, there really aren’t any free at-bats in that lineup.  They’re going to work the count to death, they’re going to get guys on base, and they’re going to get guys home at a good-enough clip to be upper echelon in this league.  Even if you’re able to overpower this offense, it’s only temporary.  A few innings, or at most a few games, before they’re right back on the trolley.

Last night, this offense was a battering ram.  3 runs in the second to get things going.  2 more runs in the third to keep piling on.  An overwhelming 4 runs in the seventh to put the game away.  Just one smashing blow after another.  There was Gamel with the 2-RBI double off of a lefty pitcher.  There was Heredia following that up with an RBI single.  Then, a 2-run homer from Cano and a grand slam from Cano to put this one in the refrigerator.

I had a good feeling about Cano in this one, after I wrote yesterday that I thought he was starting to look dialed in at the plate.  I predicted three hits for him coming into the game, but I guess I’ll settle for the 2 homers and 6 RBI.  I’ll say this:  it’s not a moment too soon, with the Astros coming to town this weekend.  The Mariners are going to need all the help they can get.

The other big story of the game was Andrew Moore in his first Big League start.  We were in the club level, in the section right next to the press box on the first base side, and as such it wasn’t the greatest vantage point for noticing balls and strikes.  He seemed to have good-enough velocity, usually parked around 91 mph, but sometimes touching 93.  He obviously didn’t walk anyone, which is always big.  He seemed to get into a lot of deep counts – with Tigers hitters frequently fouling off pitches – and that looked like it inflated his pitch count a little bit.  He gave up a solo homer to Ian Kinsler in the third, and got into a little bit of trouble in the fifth, but he powered through the sixth and even the seventh inning while just giving up those 3 runs on 6 hits, with 4 strikeouts.  An outstanding debut for a highly-rated prospect, one of the last of the Jackie Z era.

With a 9-3 lead, Max Povse got to get his debut in as well, starting the eighth inning.  He looked like he threw pretty hard, but I didn’t get a sense that there was a ton of movement to his pitches.  Again, though, tough vantage to make a definitive call.  Anyway, he got two pretty quick outs, then apparently got overwhelmed by the moment:  a double, a homer to Miguel Cabrera, a double, and a single ended his night, giving up 3 runs in 2/3 of an inning.  Tony Zych cleaned up the mess and Steve Cishek worked the ninth for a quick and painless save (Diaz was unavailable after working 4 straight days); his first save since July 30, 2016, which had to feel nice after all he’s gone through since then.

All in all, a great team win, and a fabulous 4-game series sweep of the Tigers.  As noted above, the Mariners are over .500 for the first time all season, at 38-37.  They’re still 12.5 games behind the Astros in the A.L. West, but they’re only 1 game behind the Rays for the second Wild Card (behind the Twins, who are a half game back).

Felix comes back today, so we’ll finally learn the fate of Yovani Gallardo.  The Astros come to town; we haven’t seen them since the second week in April.  We’re a whopping 2-5 against them, and looked like the clearly inferior team in just about every game we played against them, so it would be nice to turn things around here while the going is good.  Let’s put some distance between us and .500 the other way, so it’s not as easy to get so buried like we were!

Mike Zunino Smashed The Mariners To Glory

Not “Smashed” in the Jersey Shore sense, although in a way …

Also, what’s a Jersey Shore?

Mike Zunino has been on an incredible tear!  This is like nothing he’s ever put up before!  I’m not exaggerating; he’s never had a month as good as this June.  The closest is probably his April in 2014 when he had a slash line of:

  • .279/.306/.471/.776, with 3 homers, 4 doubles, 10 RBI, and 7 runs scored

Now, compare that to just the first 19 days in June of this year:

  • .385/.431/.885/1.316, with 8 homers, 2 doubles, 26 RBI, and 11 runs scored

The walks to strikeouts ratio hasn’t changed a whole lot, but he passes the eyeball test.  He’s putting himself in better counts, working his way back from 0-2 holes, and forcing pitchers to throw to him in the strike zone.  Even better, he’s actually HITTING those pitches instead of swinging through them like he was earlier this year (and for most of his career)!

Now, obviously, he could turn back into a pumpkin as early as tonight and go on another prolonged cold streak.  His actual June numbers by month’s end might not look so hot from a slash-line perspective (which, you would think will happen regardless, what with regression and all that), but the point is he’s never been nearly as good for nearly as long as he has through the first three weeks of this month.  No one is expecting Mike Zunino to compete for triple crowns (although, can you imagine?), but it’s comforting to know he’s got this in him.

I’ve said all along:  just give me a Mike Zunino who hits around .250.  With his power, with his pitch-framing ability and overall defensive ability, with the way he’s great with the pitching staff, with his leadership, that’s a guy I wouldn’t mind having at catcher for a good, long career.  Anything above and beyond that, hittingwise, is gravy.  And, in this month of June, we’ve been blessed with a whole shit-ton of gravy!

Last night, with the game tied in the bottom of the sixth, Mike Zunino cranked a 2-run home run to left field – over the bullpens – to put the Mariners ahead.  Then, in the bottom of the eighth, with the M’s still clinging to that 2-run lead, Mike Zunino ding-donged one to center to give the good guys a comfortable 4-run advantage (and thereby swipe a save opportunity from Edwin Diaz, who was already warming up in the ‘pen).  Not for nothing, but it was Z’s second multi-homer game of the month, but that probably doesn’t surprise you.

It might surprise you to see yet another fine pitching performance by this beleaguered bunch.  Sam Gaviglio gave the Mariners 5 solid innings of 2-run ball.  He got into a couple jams by giving up 3 hits and walking 4, but was able to greatly limit the damage thanks to some timely double plays.

Which brings us to the big question:  who will the Mariners keep in the rotation, Gaviglio or Bergman?

For what it’s worth, the organization might not have to make that decision just yet, as Iwakuma got a rehab start last night and could only make it through 2 innings.  He might need another outing or two (like Felix did) before bringing him back.  But, the question is looming regardless.

It could be further complicated if the Mariners decide to throw rationality to the wind and keep Yovani Gallardo on this roster.  I mean, look, he’s been ridiculously terrible this year.  If you go by the generous “Quality Start” definition in Major League Baseball (going at least 6 innings, giving up no more than 3 earned runs), he only has 4 in 14 total appearances.  He’s given up fewer than 3 runs only twice; for a so-called innings eater, he’s only gone 7 innings one time; and worst of all is he’s earning $11 million this year (with a $2 million buy-out next year).  It’s absolutely fucking shameful.

The primary argument for choosing Gallardo over the other two is that he’s got experience (Bergman had 14 starts over 3 seasons before this year; Gaviglio is a rookie).  He’s also a veteran, while I believe the other guys should have options (Bergman has less than 2 years of service time, so we should be good there).  Talentwise, Gallardo has a decent fastball, but he’s just been getting pounded.  There’s a slight argument in his favor that he usually only has 1 bad inning per start, and once he gets around that, he’s putting up zeroes.  But, that 1 bad inning is usually very early in the game, and it’s usually REALLY bad, putting the team in too big a hole to climb out of.  You’d think, if he could take better command of that 1 bad inning and at least limit the damage, he’d be an effective starter for this team.  But, you’d also think if he had that ability in him, he would have done it by now.

The fact of the matter is, Gallardo sucks at getting out of jams.  He’s been nothing but a liability for this team, and I don’t think we would’ve been any worse off if we’d given all of his starts to Chase De Jong all season.  Just because he’s been healthy all year and has made all of his starts is no feather in his cap.  If anything, he’s the ONE guy I WISH would’ve gotten injured, as opposed to the four guys who did.

If this is any sort of just and fair world, Gallardo gets hacked off this roster as soon as Felix returns on Friday.  Because, based on performance, Gallardo is severely lagging behind Bergman and Gaviglio.

Which gets us back to the aforementioned big question:  Bergman or Gaviglio?

Bergman has 3/9 quality starts; Gaviglio has 2/7 (with an asterisk, as one of those “quality starts” saw him give up 4 unearned runs in a loss).  By my own vague definition of starts where they kept the Mariners in the ballgame, I’ve got Bergman at 6/9 and Gaviglio at 4/7.  Bergman has a couple 7+ shutout inning performances under his belt and looks like a guy who will give you more quality innings; but he’s also got those two truly atrocious starts where he gave up 10 and 9 runs respectively.  Conversely, Gaviglio has gone between 5-6 innings in every start, giving up 0-5 runs.

Which leads to my thumbnail definition of each guy.  Bergman is more likely to eat more innings and look better doing it; but he’ll also have starts where he completely falls apart and looks like the most hittable guy on the planet.  Gaviglio is more likely to give you 5 innings and limit damage to 2-3 runs.

If I’m being honest, I think Bergman is the better, more talented pitcher right now, but I just flat out feel better when I see Gaviglio is on the mound.  There’s no way to explain it, because if these two guys pitched for the A’s or something, I wouldn’t be able to tell them apart.  Frankly, I don’t know how BOTH of those guys aren’t getting destroyed every time they hit the mound.  Looks like a lot of smoke and mirrors, if you ask me.  I could be way off base, though, but I just feel like Gaviglio has a higher upside.  Maybe I’m just easily impressed by the “bulldog mentality”.  Of course, the last guy we had around here with a bulldog mentality was Erik Bedard, and he too was prone to the Five & Dive start.

I really don’t have a clue as to what the Mariners are going to decide.  I’m pretty confident they’ll let Gallardo go at some point.  Considering Bergman was called up before Gaviglio – meaning he was “ahead” of Gaviglio on the theoretical depth chart – if I had to guess I’d say they roll with Bergman for a while and let Gaviglio keep starting in Tacoma.  Of course, I doubt we will have seen the last of either of the guys who end up being sent down to Tacoma.  What, the Mariners are suddenly going to get and STAY healthy?  Poppycock!

As for the rest of last night’s game, kudos to Guillermo Heredia – getting the start for Haniger, who was given a rest day – who hit the game-tying 2-run home run in the fifth.

Big ups to James Pazos, who got the win with his 1.1 innings of shutout relief.

Bigger ups to Nick Vincent, who went 1.1 innings of shutout ball for the second day in a row.  As I was talking about on Twitter last night, that’s 13 consecutive appearances where he hasn’t given up a run.  He’s 8 for 8 in Hold opportunities in that span, going 11.1 innings, giving up 10 hits, 2 walks, and striking out 7.  He’s been an absolute beast all year and the only guy in the ‘pen (besides Pazos maybe?) who hasn’t really had any sort of prolonged slump.  He’s locked down that 8th inning role and is able to be used multiple innings on multiple days in a row, which is really important for a team that’s largely struggled with its bullpen for the season.

Also, a shout out to Jarrod Dyson, who is having his own fine month of June.  Ever since Mitch Haniger came back, and it looked like Dyson’s grasp of a starting job might be in jeopardy, he’s come out swinging like a big dog to fend off Heredia for now.  It’s a crowded outfield, with four guys playing really well, and I can’t remember the last time I was able to say that with a straight face.

This Tigers series continues with Ariel Miranda tonight.

The Mariners Continue To Be Terrible On The Road

Well, the good news is that James Paxton isn’t injured, or currently in pain (so says he), but the bad news is his mechanics and timing are off, and that’s resulting in some pretty shitty performances.

The Rangers put up 7 on him in less than 4 innings, and that was that.  Tony Zych gave up an inherited runner, but otherwise suffered no ill effects.  Zac Curtis was called up to replace Chase De Jong and went 3 innings, giving up 3 runs, so expect him to go back to the minors any minute now.

On the offensive side of the ball, Ben Gamel continues to be an on-base & run-scoring machine.  It’s clear that Gamel won the job over Guillermo Heredia, and with the run on right-handed starters we’ve faced, it appears center field is now a strict platoon between Heredia and Dyson.  Interesting.  Speaking of Dyson, he hit his 4th homer of the season, which is pretty insane for him.  In case it wasn’t clear, 4 is a high for him in a season; he came into this year with 7, over a 7-year career in Kansas City.  So, bully for him.

This game was a snooze from the jump, so I’m not going to give it too much thought.  Paxton needs to figure his shit out and do it in a hurry.  2pm game today with Gallardo, so I dunno, maybe skip it?  Maybe go outside and get some fresh air?  Maybe watch literally anything else that might be on TV?  Yeah, do that.  Fuck the Mariners.

The 2017 Mariners Have Still Never Been Over .500

That was as unlucky of a 2-1 defeat as you’ll ever see.  Down 1-0 on a solo homer in the fourth, Christian Bergman was working around a moderate jam in the fifth.  With two outs, he got Joe Mauer to bounce one to second base.  At the time, you could’ve made an argument that they would’ve given Bergman a shot at going six innings in this one.  But, not so fast, because the ball booted off the heel of Robinson Cano’s glove to put runners at the corners.  The lead runner was past third base enough for the M’s to potentially have a shot at picking him off, but Cano couldn’t get a clean grip on the ball.  By the time he did, it was too late and he should’ve eaten it.  Instead, he tried to rush the ball to third, saw it skip past Kyle Seager, allowing the runner to turn around and score.

Two errors, one play, by a guy who had one error all season.

In the bottom of the fifth, Jarrod Dyson led off with a triple.  One out and a Boog Powell walk later, Ben Gamel hit a sac fly to score Dyson.  Guillermo Heredia hit a single to right to put runners on the corners, which brought up Robbie with a chance to atone for his sins in the top half of the inning.  He hit a screaming liner to center that looked like it was going to score the go-ahead runs for the Mariners, but Byron Buxton made a crazy leaping catch to end the inning.

There’s probably only a small handful of guys who are able to track that ball and make that catch.

The bullpens kept the game the same on into the bottom of the eighth, with the heart of the order coming up.  Cano and Seager singled to put runners at first and second; with one out, the hero of the previous night – Mike Zunino – stepped to the plate.  He didn’t have a particularly good game in this one heading into the at bat, but all of that would’ve changed had he gotten ahold of one.  On a 1-0 pitch, Zunino smashed a liner right at the pitcher that almost certainly would’ve scored the tying run.  But, he hit it right into the pitcher’s glove, who was able to easily double off Cano at second to end the threat.

There would be no blown save for Minnesota’s closer on this night, as he came into the ninth and went 1-2-3.

What can you do, you know?  The confluence of events to get that game to go in Minnesota’s favor was pretty astounding.  Bergman once again pitched good enough to keep the Mariners in the ballgame (funny how he rarely seems to have Gallardo’s problem of The Big Inning, but that’s neither here nor there) and the bullpen pitched good enough to give the Mariners the win.  Four shutout innings by Pazos, Cishek, Scrabble, and Altavilla.

Offensively, we’re talking about 0 for 7 with RISP, which obviously won’t get the job done on many nights.  The Mariners will try again to get back to .500 (and maybe over .500) against the Blue Jays this weekend.  Sam Gaviglio goes tonight, which is cause for concern.  The fact that the Blue Jays have practically everyone back and healthy is another cause for concern, considering they were pretty beaten down by injuries the last time we played them last month, and they still managed to sweep the M’s in a 4-game series.  On top of all of that, we have to deal with a park full of insufferable Blue Jays fans.  Part of me wants to go to Safeco this weekend and mix it up, but the rest of me knows the Mariners are just going to lose anyway, because we always fucking lose to Toronto.

On a minor positive note, both Drew Smyly and Hisashi Iwakuma threw off of a mound yesterday.  It’s not much, but it’s an important next step.  Also, Mitch Haniger had a good game down in Tacoma, drawing the game-winning walk.  And, word around the team is that Nelson Cruz should be back tonight, but we’ll see.

The Mariners Chopped The Twins Up With An Axe

It was a 12-3 win for the Mariners that was about 95% impressive hitting performance and 5% solid pitching.  12 runs on 12 hits and 5 walks, 7 for 12 with RISP; homers from Cano and Seager, doubles from Valencia and Seager.  Heredia had 2 hits and 2 runs scored; Valencia had a bases-clearing 3-run double; Cano had 3 RBI and 3 runs scored; Seager had 4 RBI; Motter had a couple of hits and a really impressive sac fly.  Just about everyone had a say in this, and the best part is that the Mariners racked up all their runs by the fourth inning, so it was a nice, relaxing coast to the finish line.

James Paxton was rock solid through the first three innings, but as the Mariners offense did their thing, leaving Paxton with longer and longer between-innings breaks, he got tripped up.  He ended up going 5 innings, giving up 3 runs to get the win, but as I alluded to before, not a start to write home about.

Zych, Altavilla, and Vincent combined to go the final four innings, keeping the Twins off the board, which is all you could really ask for.  The best part of this game, honestly, is how the Mariners forced them into using 5 relievers of their own.  Here’s to hoping that sets things up poorly for them these next two games.

Nelson Cruz was pulled from this one pretty early with a tight calf – the same one that’s been nagging him for a while now.  Considering the Mariners had amassed such a powerful lead, it didn’t bite us in the ass, but here’s to hoping he’s able to come back tonight.

The M’s are now 29-30, which is pretty great, all things considered.  They’re 13 games behind the Astros – who are keeping pace with the 2001 Mariners of all teams, for Christ’s sake – but they’re just 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot.  Remember when they were down around the Royals for last in the American League?  Now there are only two teams between us and the Baltimore Orioles.  Thankfully, like last year, the A.L. East has a lot of good teams, which means they should spend the majority of the season beating up on one another.  You gotta figure one of those teams will take the brunt of the pounding, opening up that second Wild Card for a plucky little team from the Central or West.  Why not us, right?

Well, Felix made his first rehab start in Tacoma last night and got pounded in his two innings of work.  So … that’s neat.  Mitch Haniger also DH’d for the first time in Tacoma and went 1 for 4 with a run scored.

In further good news, Jean Segura is improving by leaps and bounds.  He might start doing baseball-like things in the next week or so!  On top of that, there were reports all over Twitter last night that Segura is going to sign a 5-year, $70 million deal (effectively buying out his final Arb year next year), with a possible sixth option year for $17 million.  Given the way contracts go in baseball, that’s a VERY reasonable figure for a guy with his skillset.  So much for the idea of selling at the trade deadline, I guess.

The Mariners Salvaged A 4-4 Road Trip

And in doing so, they got through a left-handed starter!

After their season’s offensive nadir – back-to-back shutout losses in Boston – the Mariners started hitting again.  They had 16 hits in the finale against the Red Sox, and 10 more hits against the Rockies the next day, but they only had a combined 11 runs to show for it.  It was only a matter of time before their hitting with RISP turned around, and indeed that day was yesterday.  19 hits and 10 runs against the Rockies, while going 6 for 15 with RISP, in a 10-4 victory.

Segura had 4 hits; Cano had 2 hits, 2 runs, and an RBI; Gamel had 3 hits in relief of Nelson Cruz – who left early in the game with a strained calf – Heredia had 3 hits; Zunino had 2 hits.  But, the star of the show was Kyle Seager:  3 for 5 with a double, a homer, 3 runs scored and 4 RBI.  I wouldn’t say Seager is explosively hot right now, but he’s got 5 doubles over the last week, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him really start to pour it on heading into June.

Ariel Miranda was rolling through 4 innings, gave up a couple runs in the 5th, and was pulled after that for a pinch hitter (because stupid National League rules).  The bullpen really did a fine job, though.  Casey Lawrence ate up 2.2 innings, giving up just the 1 run.  Scrabble was able to get us out of a mini-jam in the 8th, when this thing still could’ve gone sideways, and Altavilla got through the ninth after the Mariners padded their lead beyond the need for their closer.

I don’t have a lot to add, other than James Paxton returns tonight.  Like Blowers mentioned on the broadcast last night, I too would expect Paxton to be on a bit of a limited pitch count.  Ryne Harper was sent back to Tacoma without making an appearance, which is really a good news/bad news situation (bad news for him, anyway, as I’m sure he would’ve loved to have made his Major League debut).  If the Mariners can win tonight, they will salvage a 14-14 month of May, which again is another baby step in the right direction.  Considering the Mariners went 4-12 in the middle part of the month, that’s a nice turnaround.

The post below this talks about why the Mariners probably won’t be huge sellers at the deadline, so feel free to dig into that one if you need more to read.

Why It Doesn’t Make Sense To Blow Up The Mariners

It’s always alarming when people start talking about tearing a team down and doing a full-on rebuild, particularly when it’s a team like the Mariners, who had the hype and expectations they had coming into the season.  Indeed, it’s more than just alarming; it’s discouraging, frustrating, enraging, you name it.  It also makes sense in a lot of ways.  The Mariners have an aging roster with guys like Cano and Cruz on offense, and guys like Felix and Iwakuma on the pitching staff, on top of various role players and guys on 1-year deals.  When you factor that in with how this team has underperformed, is staring down the barrel of last place, with a few guys making a lot of money, and then take a look at how barren the farm system is, and yeah, I can see why people might be clamoring for a tear down.  Get the nasty taste of Jackie Z and Howard Lincoln out of our mouths once and for all, start fresh with the new ownership group and the new GM.

Now, normally, when you do this, you have someone on your roster who you choose to build around, but I’m hearing people talking about trading Cruz, Cano, Felix, (obvs) and Kyle Seager?  Not that Seager is some stud superstar or anything, but he’s not old, he’s not particularly overpaid, and you figure he’s got a lot of years left of being a productive player at this level.

But, here, I’m getting ahead of myself.  Let’s say, for the sake of argument that the Mariners continue to be terrible on into July and anyone and everyone is on the table for trade.  I want to go through the roster line by line, so to speak, and tell you why it doesn’t make a ton of sense to blow the whole thing up.

Any conversation in this area is going to start with Robinson Cano.  We’re currently in the fourth year of a 10-year deal, where he’s making $24 million per season.  He’s 34 years old and still putting up All Star numbers.  He has that DL stint under his belt already this year, which is an obvious concern (given his age), and that contract is pretty prohibitive for a lot of teams.  Smaller market cities just flat out won’t be able to afford him; teams at the top of the league in payroll are going to be VERY wary of bringing on such a huge deal.  So, right there, you’re chopping off maybe half the league, not even factoring in the teams who have a need for a second baseman, who are also in contention and willing to be buyers at the deadline.  Oh, and by the way, Cano has a full no-trade clause, so he’d have to agree to any deal.  The bottom line is, there’s no way the Mariners are trading Cano without opting to eat a significant portion of his salary, in which case why even bother?  We’re not at a point where he’s a cancer in the organization.  And, even if we did trade him while eating a bunch of money, we STILL probably won’t get anyone of value in return.  That’s, like, a million whammies against this ever happening.  Next.

Nelson Cruz.  He’s even older than Cano, at 36 years of age, but he’s in the third year of a 4-year deal.  He’s still playing at an All Star level, but he’s also just a DH.  He can only play the outfield in National League games, and I’m not totally sure he can even play on back-to-back days.  That SEVERELY limits his value.  It takes out the entire National League, for starters, as he can’t play any other defensive position than right field.  So, he’s a DH.  I’m sure an American League team would welcome him with open arms, but he immediately limits a team’s flexibility to give guys DH “rest” days late in the season.  His contract isn’t too terrible, at $14 million next year (and whatever pro-rated portion of that for the rest of this season), but again, you’re not talking about a guy who is going to bring back a lot of value.  Maybe a couple Quad-A guys, and some salary relief and that’s about it.  Next.

Felix Hernandez, of course.  He’s 31 years old, but he’s been in the Major Leagues since 2005 and has a lot of miles on his arm.  He spent significant time on the DL last year and again this year.  He’s making $26 million this year and next, and $27 million in 2019.  There’s a $1 million option for 2020 if he spends significant time on the DL with an elbow injury, otherwise he’ll be a free agent in 2020.  His performance has declined since 2014 (the last year he was really at an All Star level) with no reason to expect him to return to a consistent All Star level.  In short, trading Felix would be a straight-up salary dump for very low-level prospects.  And, on top of it, he too has a full no-trade clause.  Seems highly unlikely any team would take on the risk of a Felix Hernandez for that type of money, so this is another scenario where the Mariners would almost certainly have to eat some of that money.  He doesn’t have the type of emotional value anywhere else besides Seattle, so what would be his motivation to want to go elsewhere (aside from being a broken-down starter trying to back-door into a playoff appearance)?  Seems like a longshot at best that the Mariners are able to deal him at all.  Next.

Hisashi Iwakuma.  Will he even be healthy by July?  Let’s assume he is, for the sake of argument.  Well, he’s 36 years old right now.  He’s earning $14 million this year, so he’ll cost his new ballclub whatever the pro-rated amount of that is.  He’s 94 innings-pitched away from earning a guaranteed $15 million in 2018, which he could very well reach if he’s able to return by July (otherwise, it looks like 2018 is a $10 million club option year, and he could be released if he doesn’t reach the innings threshold).  Also, Kuma has a full no-trade clause.  His velocity has gone down significantly this season, he’s not making great progress in his rehab at the moment, and aside from 2016, he hasn’t proven to be very durable.  Throw him on the pile of guys I’ve already mentioned who won’t bring back much of anything in trade, aside from salary relief.

Boring and repetitive, no?  Let’s return to Kyle Seager then.  Here’s a guy with some real, actual value.  He’s 29 years old.  He’s on a contract for up to five more seasons after this year (2022 is a club option year with a buy-out).  He has yet to be prohibitively expensive, though his salary spikes starting in 2018 (between $18-$19 million per season over the next four years, while his 2022 season value could climb as high as $20 million if he reaches certain performance markers).  Again, though, that’s not an unreasonable number for a guy like Seager, who plays a solid third base, who is as durable as they get, who is consistent offensively (and has improved little by little every year).  This is a guy any team would love to have!  So, we get back to the usual questions:  which teams in contention also need a third baseman?  You could talk about moving him to second base in a pinch, but moving him to first base seems like a waste of his talents, and reduces much of his value.  I could see the Mariners getting a really valuable piece in return for Kyle Seager, but once you trade him, you’ve got an immediate hole at third base.  Who fills that void?  The Mariners don’t have anyone in the minors right now ready to step in there on an everyday basis.  If you trade Seager for a third base prospect, you still don’t know if that guy will pan out.  You’re essentially trading a sure thing for a lottery ticket, and you haven’t really helped your team out in any other areas.  Plus, Seager is a homegrown talent, and if you’re looking to unload salary elsewhere, you’re going to want to keep a guy like Seager around to help lessen the blow of the fact that the Mariners would (in this scenario) be getting rid of a lot of familiar faces.  However, if the Mariners are forced to keep guys like Cano, Felix, and Cruz (due to age and salary issues), then by all means, try to get as much as you can for Seager.  I just hope the backup plan at third base is a true asset and this won’t be a Robbing Peter to Pay Paul situation.

Jean Segura is under club control through 2018, so here’s another valuable piece.  Who wouldn’t want a guy like Segura?  You could stick him at short stop or second base, you can put him at the top of your lineup as he’s a hitting machine, he’s got plenty of pop in his bat to boot, and he’s cost-friendly from a contract perspective (his final Arb year is next year, but he’s a steal at $6.2 million this year, and should still be a bargain next year with whatever raise he gets).  You can unload Seager and Segura and get some high-level prospects back, but again those are a couple of really big holes to fill on the left side of your infield.

After that, I don’t know that you have a ton of value left to trade.  Smyly’s hurt, Gallardo is bad, Valencia is just okay, ditto Dyson and some of the veteran bullpen guys.  You’re not going to get much back in return, is my point.  The only other guys with value on the Mariners are younger guys:  Paxton, Haniger, Heredia, Gamel, Diaz, Altavilla, Pazos, but isn’t the whole point of a total roster rebuild to build AROUND that young core?  Wouldn’t you want to KEEP guys like Paxton, Haniger, Heredia, Gamel, Diaz, and the like?  Sure, you could get some decent prospects back, but at that point you’re REALLY trying to bottom out if you’re going to trade talent like this.  That’s more of a long-con like the Astros did, where they went after the #1 overall draft pick year after year after year.  Can the Mariners afford to wait that long, when they’re already the team with the longest playoff drought in the entirety of Major League Baseball?

I’ll talk a little more about Paxton here, since I’m thinking he’s a name people might want to trade.  Like Kuma, Paxton is a guy who has never proven he can stay healthy for a full season.  He hasn’t really had any significant arm trouble, but it’s been a lot of other things, and you have to think the significant arm trouble is on the horizon.  I just don’t know if you’re going to get the type of value for a guy like Paxton that you’d be happy with.  It makes more sense to hang onto him for the pennies he’s making now, let him build up value over the next few seasons (if he can), and reap the rewards of his ace-like performances while we can.

I dunno.  A total rebuild is a nice idea, particularly in a season like this where everything is going to shit, but I just can’t see it.  At best, the Mariners can unload salary, while getting some good prospects back for Seager and Segura, but it comes at a price:  knowing the Mariners won’t contend for anything for another 3-5 years or more.  Maybe you’re okay with that, but there’s another problem with “building for the future”:  even if you run into a Best Case Scenario, like with the Royals a few years ago, these things are short lived!  Guys get injured, guys underperform at random, guys become free agents and command huge deals on the open market.

Going back to the Royals, they were a bottom-feeder for almost 30 years!  They won the World Series in 1985, then didn’t make the playoffs again until 2014.  They made the World Series in back-to-back years in 2014 and 2015 (winning it all the second time around), then fell to .500 in 2016 and now, in 2017, they’re last in the American League.  THAT’S HOW FAST IT CAN ALL FALL APART!

Now, come back to the Mariners.  Again, I reiterate, the Mariners have the longest playoff drought in the entire Major Leagues.  They’re one of two teams who have never reached the World Series (with the Nationals/Expos), and one of 8 teams who have never won it all.  Only the Buffalo Bills have a longer playoff drought in all of the four major American professional sports.  You could make an argument that the Mariners, as presently constructed, are just a couple players away from being serious playoff contenders (particularly on the pitching side of things).  Are you willing to throw that all away, to start over fresh, without any guarantee whatsoever that tanking these next 3-5 years will bring about any sort of turnaround?  Just because it looks like it’s worked for the Astros doesn’t mean it will work for the Mariners.  And, even with the Astros on the rise, how long will it last?  Will they be the new Royals in three years?

TL;DR:  why do we even follow the sport of baseball?  ALL OF LIFE IS A MEANINGLESS FARCE!

Seattle “One Out Of Three Ain’t Bad” Mariners Avoid Boston Sweep

Considering the Mariners are winning road games at a 31% clip, one out of three is actually an improvement!

Christian Bergman – with his 7 shutout innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 walks, with 2 strikeouts – goes right to the top of my list of most baffling Mariners currently on the 25-man roster.  He had a very similar outing two starts ago, when he got one out into the eighth inning of a shutout victory.  These two starts, of course, are the slices of bread in the shit sandwhich that was his game in Washington, where he gave up 10 runs in 4 innings, in what has to be one of the worst starts of the year across Major League Baseball.

So, what’s the deal?  Is this guy a fantastic, double-play-inducing machine?  Or is he the guy who got pounded like a nerd on the playground?  He’s not just putting up zeroes against the dregs of the league; the Red Sox are a fantastic hitting bunch.  I guess, for now, we shrug our shoulders and exclaim Small Sample Size!  I have a hard time imagining a truly great pitcher would ever succumb to giving up 10 runs in 4 innings, but maybe it was just a fluke.  As always, we’ll need to see more starts out of him before we can make an informed decision.

Still, it’s nice to think that maybe he could be some semblance of the real deal with Bill McNeal.  Considering it’s highly in doubt that we ever get Drew Smyly back; Bergman may indeed be our only ticket to getting rid of Yovani Gallardo, if/when we get the rest of our rotation back and healthy.

The Mariners were finally worth a damn offensively, generating five runs on 16 hits.  We made reigning Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello work for his 6.1 innings, getting just two runs out of him.  And, we kept the string going through Boston’s bullpen.  Everyone in the Mariners lineup had at least one hit, with Cano, Cruz, Heredia, and Segura doing the bulk of the damage; not to mention the three hits from Chooch.

It was a sight for sore eyes, for sure.  Lots of hits, lots of runs, and the Mariners actually left a lot on the table.  Let’s hope they can parlay that into being relevant against the Rockies.  Four games, with 2 in Colorado (starting today) and 2 in Seattle (starting Wednesday).

Also, in You Guessed It, More Mariners Roster Moves news, Ryne Harper was called up as another reliever, taking the spot of Rob Whalen.  Harper has yet to make a Major League appearance, but his numbers in the minors look VERY encouraging.  Harper was acquired in an under-the-radar trade with the Braves for Jose Ramirez, another relief pitcher who was out of options and was apparently not in our future plans (in spite of him putting up some really solid seasons with the Braves last year and this).  Here’s to hoping Harper has the higher upside.

Another Day, Another Garbage Yovani Gallardo Start

When the chips are down, you find out who the fighters are and who are the wastes of fucking life.

I have a lot of respect for a lot of guys on the Mariners right now.  Shit is REAL bad, but these guys are going out there and getting the job done.  Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager.  Hell, Danny Valencia started off the season as a wreck, and look at how he’s built up his numbers!  Heredia and Gamel have stepped up in a major way – even if they’ve cooled off over the last couple weeks – in the wake of Leonys Martin being sent to Tacoma and Mitch Haniger spending so much time on the DL.

On the pitching side of things, obviously we’re talking about the bulk of our hardships here.  But, I can’t say enough about how Ariel Miranda has stepped his game up this season.  He’s gone from a guy who’s good one day, bad the next, and he’s morphed into a guy who is consistently keeping the Mariners in more games than not.  The Mariners are 6-4 in his starts this season, and you could argue two of those losses were very much on the offense not getting it done.

In the bullpen, it’s been a disaster, but there are a few bright spots.  Scrabble, Zych, Vincent, and Pazos have all stepped up in a major way this season.

The point is, there are a lot of fighters on this Mariners team.  I wouldn’t say they’re able to keep the Mariners afloat – as we’re now 7 games under .500 with yesterday’s 3-0 defeat – but they’re at the very least slowing down the drowning somewhat.

Then, there’s Yovani Gallardo.  He’s been a burr in my fucking saddle pretty much since the day we (ugh) traded Seth Smith for him.  And, look, I understood the rationale then and I understand the rationale now:  Seth Smith is, at best, a platoon outfielder with very limited defensive skills, while the Mariners had a need for a veteran, back-of-the-rotation starter.  But, while Seth Smith is over in Baltimore doing Seth Smith things (10 extra base hits in 105 at bats, with an okay batting average, a great on-base percentage, and he’s already matched his 2016 WAR in under two months, while dealing with some nagging injuries), Yovani Gallardo is just the God damned worst.

As has been beaten into the ground, the Mariners are struggling with injuries.  Per my opening sentence:  the chips are fucking DOWN!  A bunch of guys on this team are TRYING to keep things in check until some of our injured guys return, and hats off to them.  But, here you’ve got an 11-year veteran starting pitcher who is the only man standing from this organization’s intended starting rotation coming into the season, and sure, he’s lost a bit of his skills over that long career.  But, I dunno, it seems like he should be doing more.  It seems like a guy who has kicked around the Majors for this long would have enough tricks up his sleeve to step up when things are at their worst.  I mean, shit man, you’re easily the most veteran healthy pitcher on this roster right now!  The Mariners are a VERY young team, particularly on the pitching side, they’re looking to YOU to set the fucking example!

And the best you can give is a 5.76 ERA?  The best you can do last night is 5.1 innings of 3-run ball, giving up 7 hits and a whopping 6 walks?!  That on the back of a 10-run outing the last time out, against the White Sox?  People shouldn’t have to fall all over themselves sucking your dick just because you occasionally get into the 7th inning, while still giving up 3 runs!  The Mariners are 3-7 in Gallardo’s starts this year, and that’s just pathetic.  If the Mariners weren’t so fucking decimated by injuries, Gallardo should’ve been DFA’d WEEKS ago!

Sure, you could make the argument that the Mariners’ offense hasn’t showed up in a lot of those defeats (a la last night’s shutout), but I’d counter that with the fact that Gallardo has consistently stunk early in games.  He has a 9.00 ERA in the first innings of his starts!  Over a quarter of all his runs allowed have come in the first!  27 of his 35 earned runs have come in the first four innings!  That’s not keeping your team in the game!  That’s digging them a huge hole they’ve got to dig their way out of against the bullpens of the league!

The fact of the matter is, the Mariners – right now – need more than what Gallardo is giving them.  He’s a worthless lump and I can’t wait until I never have to be subjected to one of his starts ever again.  If the offense is slumping, then guess what:  a GOOD pitcher steps up and helps his team!  He doesn’t consistently average 5 innings and 3 runs a game.  NOT GOOD ENOUGH.  He’s hurting this bullpen, he’s hurting the win/loss record of the team, and he’s demoralizing an offense that has to always score 6+ runs in his starts just to have a CHANCE to win.

Fuck Yovani Gallardo.

Mariners Lose (A Lot) to 1, For The Fifth Straight Game

I don’t know what to tell you.  The fans are demoralized.  The players are demoralized.  The coaches are demoralized.  The Mariners are a half game out of last place in the entire American League.  With the collection of hitting talent on this team, that’s not supposed to happen.  But, that IS what happens when you run out a AAA pitching staff.  That’s what happens when you gut your farm system on the way out the door (Jackie Z) trying to save your own job.  That’s what happens when you continuously rob Peter (pitching) to pay Paul (hitting), because you fail time and time and time again to field a legitimate Major League lineup.

This isn’t a This Year issue.  This isn’t really even a Jerry Dipoto problem.  It’s ingrained.  It’s longstanding.  It’s institutional.

This dates back to 2015, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1998, 1996, all the way back to the start of the franchise.  The Mariners are who we thought they were.  They’ve always been the caretaker at the Overlook Hotel.

A Jean Segura throwing error in yesterday’s game helped lead to 4 unearned runs in the bottom of the first inning.  A fleeting 1-0 Mariners lead in the top of the first became a 5-1 deficit after the second inning add-on RBI by the Nationals; the score would remain unchanged to the bitter end.

Be honest:  when the Mariners took that 1-0 lead, how many of you thought, “Well, the Mariners got their 1 run; I guess they’re done now!”  Because, that’s exactly what I thought.

On the plus side, Cano had three hits, Heredia had two hits, and a smattering of hits up and down the lineup, but of course the team was only 1 for 7 with RISP.  That’s not going to get you more than one run a game very often.

In Everyday I’m Shufflin’ … Players Between Seattle & Tacoma news:  Emilio Pagan was rewarded for his 4 shutout innings of relief of Christian Bergman the day before by being sent back down, with Rob Whalen getting the call-up.  He could be a long reliever, or he could be a spot starter as we continue to wait for Paxton’s return.  Yay.

Morning game today, unless it gets rained out.  At this point, I’m praying for rain outs for the next month, if that’s possible.  However long it takes until guys start coming back.