I got into a bunch of stuff last week, if you missed it.
So, without further ado, why not kick this post off by talking about the hitters and fielders?
I’ve been on record for a while now as being pretty impressed by the collection of hitters the Mariners have amassed this year. I think we’re across-the-board better than we were last year, and better than we’ve been in I can’t remember how many years. Adam Lind should be an improvement over the streaky LoMo. I’m not really all that high on Brad Miller (again, streaky), so I think we’ll get more consistency out of Ketel Marte. Chris Iannetta should be leaps & bounds better than the black hole that was Mike Zunino. Nori Aoki should be a HUGE upgrade over Dustin Ackley. And, considering there was absolutely nothing special about Austin Jackson, that means we’re not taking much of a hit offensively with Leonys Martin, while at the same time getting a bigtime player defensively in center.
When you tack that onto Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz still in their primes, the improved health of Robinson Cano leading to a dramatic return to form, and the steady presence of Seth Smith and Franklin Gutierrez in a platoon situation, I think we’re going to see this team be quite competitive offensively, compared to in years past where most of the time we were struggling just to score a run or two.
In fact, I’ll take it one step further. I think we’re going to see a high number of shootouts, where the Mariners are scoring 7+ runs, while at the same time giving up 7+ runs. While the obvious home run numbers won’t be there, I think this COULD prove to be the best offense we’ve had since 2001.
Which is a shame, because usually it’s the pitching I have the most confidence in. This year, terms like “potential” and “cautiously optimistic” have been uttered by me when talking about the collection of starters and relievers we’ve got on the roster. It’s less than ideal. You can make the case for and against just about every one of these guys.
I’m like 85-90% sure Felix Hernandez is going to continue being great. But, while I won’t damn him for the so-called poor finish to his season last year, I will say there were a disturbing number of appearances where he got absolutely annihilated. 8 runs against Houston, where he only got 1 out. 7 runs each against the Yankees and Diamondbacks. 10 runs in 2.1 innings against Boston. I’m not used to seeing my guy struggle like he did in these games. I mean, I didn’t think I’d EVER see a time where he couldn’t get out of the first inning! It’s not cause to be alarmed, but it’s cause to be on alert. King Felix is still performing at a high level for the most part, but winter is coming.
On any given day, I’m 50/50 as to whether we’ll see Good Iwakuma or Crap Iwakuma. He had that 2013 season where he was amazing (and amazingly healthy), but he’s followed it up with two so-so years. While he finished pretty consistently strong, he had a run from late 2014 through early 2015 where he was giving up homers at an insane rate. Even in his best year, he was giving up almost a homer a game, so that’s not entirely a negative issue with him. But, keeping guys off base and keeping the ball from looking like a juicy piece of meat for opposing batters to mash will always be the key.
Wade Miley is more or less an effective innings eater, but he reminds me of every soft-tossing lefty starter we’ve had here in the last 8 years or so. Vargas, Saunders, Elias, Happ, Washburn, Rowland-Smith, and I’m sure I’m forgetting countless others. Vargas was probably the best of the bunch, but he didn’t come as a finished product and had his share of growing pains along the way. Does Miley have an effective out pitch? If he doesn’t have an awesome splitter or change up or something, I don’t have high hopes for him being very good.
Taijuan Walker seems to have the most promise among players taking a big leap forward. But, at the same time, he could just be who he is. When his command is on, he’ll be tough, but ultimately falling short of that elite, Ace status.
Then, there’s what’s sure to be a revolving door of sorts at the bottom of the rotation. Karns is young, and I don’t really know what he has. Paxton is down in Tacoma, waiting for either Karns to slip up, or someone else to get injured. Neither one of them inspire too much confidence (I mean, our main injury insurance in Paxton is himself injury-prone!).
Ultimately, this is going to be the highest variance season we’ve seen out of the Mariners since 2007. You know how, in every Preview post I’ve ever written about the Mariners, I talk about the Best Case Scenario? Well, usually my scenarios are based in far-off delusions (Ackley/Smoak/Montero/Miller/Zunino will hopefully be ready to take the next step into being a productive and elite member of baseball society). But, the actual variance in possibilities isn’t usually that great. A normal range of outcomes is usually anywhere from 70-80 wins. But, this year? I could see this team winning anywhere from 65 games to 90 games and not have it be totally crazy.
What does a 65-win Mariners team look like? Well, probably injury-riddled at its core. One would think that team will have to face significant time with King Felix on the shelf, and at least one of the big three (Cano/Cruz/Seager). As this team doesn’t really have a ton of depth, nor a ton of talent coming up through the pipeline, it just won’t be able to overcome significant health issues at its premium positions.
What does a 75-win Mariners team look like? Well, tbh, a lot like last year’s team. The bullpen struggles, the starters are somewhat effective, but have their own peaks & valleys to deal with, and the hitters aren’t as good as we thought going in. That means Iannetta is just as black of a hole as Zunino; Lind isn’t much of an upgrade over LoMo, as he struggles to adjust to Safeco Field; Ketel Marte is drastically worse than the low bar Brad Miller had set for us; Nori Aoki looks more like Austin Jackson than we care to admit; and Leonys Martin looks more like James Jones than we care to admit. That team also has one of the big three (let’s say Cruz, for shits and giggles, since he would appear to be due for some regression towards the mean) unexpectedly struggling a lot more than they did last year, due to nagging health issues or simply advanced age.
What does an 85-win Mariners team look like? Well, for starters, the hitters match my expectations of being the strength of this team. The pitching likely struggles at spots, and maybe Iwakuma or Karns miss a month or two due to injury (probably at different points in the season, giving us a lot more of Paxton than we expected). The bullpen goes through hot periods and extra cold periods, but the offense is just clutch enough to give us a Kansas City Royals-esque spate of walk-off wins. This team stays relevant throughout the season – giving Seattle fans lots to talk about all summer – and might even break that streak of seasons without a postseason appearance, depending on how things shake out in the rest of the American League. Ultimately, this team probably disappoints in the playoffs (if it does get there), but it gives fans a ton of hope going into the 2017 season.
What does a 90-win (or 90+ win) Mariners team look like? Well, here’s your Best Case Scenario. Here’s where absolutely everything that needed to break right DOES break right. Felix is in the Cy Young conversation. Iwakuma is back to his 2013 tricks. Wade Miley comes better than advertised and not only eats up innings, but figures out how to be an effective #2 or #3 starter. Taijuan Walker goes thermonuclear. And, the duo of Karns/Paxton are pleasant surprises whose ability to pitch finally catches up to their raw stuff. This team gets strong seasons out of its primary 8th & 9th inning bullpen guys, and gets enough out of the rest of the bullpen to make it one of the top five units in the league. And the hitting is not only as good as I think it’s going to be, but it still manages to come through on that clutchness factor, where we’re winning a vast majority of 1-run games (what some would say is an unsustainable rate of winning in those types of close games). This team probably catches some luck among the rest of the A.L. West and takes the division, and cruises right into the ALCS. Felix gets to show the world what it’s been missing by not having him in the playoffs, as he blows away the field in his post-season starts, and this team makes its first-ever World Series appearance (where it goes on to lose in five games, because this is Seattle, and we can’t have nice things).
So, where do I have my money?
In Tahoe, there was a Futures bet. The over/under for the Mariners was 82 wins. Now, considering I had 1 good betting day out of 4 when I was down there, you can take what I’m about to say with a grain of salt. If I still had money on the last day there, I would’ve bet everything I had on the Mariners winning under 82 games. What does that mean? Well, my gambling prowess notwithstanding, I believe there is a greater than 50% chance that the shit hits the fan with this team (either with injuries, or a struggling bullpen, or the hitters just not being as good as we expected) and the Mariners struggle to remain competitive. You know me, I hate a team that doesn’t pitch well. Even if the key guys stay healthy, I still think this team – at the end of the day – will look a lot like it did last year, at least in the win/loss column.
That having been said, there’s a part of me that believes in this team more than last year’s team. I wonder if that’s just because it looks so different (13 of the 25 players we have going into Opening Day will be playing their first games as Mariners). I mean, different = better, right? Well, at least different = more exciting, for the first few weeks anyway.
My hunch is that the offense will ultimately be one of the better ones we’ve seen in recent history, but it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see this offense get off to yet ANOTHER slow start in the month of April. All the better to make me look foolish in my predictions (because everything in the world revolves around me and what I think). Conversely, the pitching will probably start out on fire, and this team will be a couple games under .500 going into May. It’ll tread water – as the Mariners like to do – through the All Star Break, and then on that road trip at the end of July the Mariners will go something like 1-7 and play themselves right out of contention (and a season-saving deadline deal). From there, it’ll just be a matter of playing out the string of yet another losing season. I think the record will be 77-85.
I like this team, but I’ve been burned too many times in the past. I’ll go into this year expecting the worst, because why shouldn’t I? We’ve got national morons predicting the Mariners will shock the world – like we read about just about every single year – but what are they basing it on? The same things I’m basing my prediction on: the high variance nature of this roster. When has that ever worked out in our favor to spell out a post-season appearance? Not bloody often.