It’s been about a month since I’ve written about the Mariners. The last newsworthy item I felt compelled to write about was trading Michael Saunders for J.A. Happ. Prior to that, it was the Nelson Cruz signing. Prior to that, it was the Kyle Seager extension. That’s about it for the major events in this offseason, as it pertains to the 2015 squad.
There have been some minor moves that should impact the club one way or another. Let’s list them here!
- December 30th: Mariners trade Brandon Maurer to Padres for Seth Smith
- December 17th: Mariners trade minor league reliever to Cubs for Justin Ruggiano
- December 11th: Kendrys Morales signed a 2-year deal with the Royals who for some reason offered Kendrys Morales a 2-year deal
OK, so it’s not a huge list. Some other Mariners became ex-Mariners by signing with other teams, but I don’t much care about that. I just care that Kendrys Morales is gone and hopefully will never return.
So, where does that leave us? Let’s look at the roster as currently constructed:
Left – Dustin Ackley
Center – Austin Jackson
Right – Seth Smith / Justin Ruggiano
Third – Kyle Seager
Short – Brad Miller / Chris Taylor
Second – Robbie Cano
First – Logan Morrison
Catcher – Mike Zunino
DH/Outfield – Nelson Cruz
Those are the guys you’re going to see the most. Miller and Taylor will duke it out for the starting short stop job, with the loser likely starting the season in Tacoma (with an outside chance of the loser sticking on the bench, but I wouldn’t count on it).
As for the bench, you’re looking at keeping a backup catcher (likely Jesus Sucre), a utility infielder (likely Willie Bloomquist, if he can return to good health), a fifth outfielder (a James Jones / Endy Chavez type) and possibly a backup first baseman (Jesus Montero?). It all really depends on how many we opt to keep in the bullpen. A 5-man bench might be too much to carry when you’re talking about a strict platoon job in right field; so, it’s very possible we don’t keep a fifth outfielder. Bank on the 25th spot on the roster being entirely dependant upon whether or not the team feels Jesus Montero is ready to return to the Bigs.
The starting rotation looks something like this:
- Felix Hernandez
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- J.A. Happ
- James Paxton
- Roenis Elias / Taijuan Walker
I don’t necessarily think that’ll be the exact order. But, if you look at the rotation today, Happ’s roster spot is MUCH more secure than the three pitchers behind him. Now, obviously, the final two spots in the rotation will come down to overall health and performance in Spring Training. With everything being equal, and everyone healthy as a horse, I’d anticipate Paxton being this teams #3 starter. And, I don’t care what anyone else says, until I hear otherwise I’ve got Elias ahead of Walker for the simple reason that he pitched for the Big Ballclub for almost the entire 2014 season. Either way, don’t count on the Mariners running out a 6-man rotation, and don’t count on any of these six pitchers starting the year in the bullpen. When push comes to shove, one of the last three guys will be starting in Tacoma until needed by Seattle at a later date.
In the bullpen, you’ve got the following fighting for anywhere from 6-8 spots (again, depending on how many bench spots we decide to keep):
- Fernando Rodney
- Danny Farquhar
- Yoervis Medina
- Tom Wilhelmsen
- Charlie Furbush
- Carson Smith
- Dominic Leone
- David Rollins / Lucas Luetge / Edgar OImos / (misc. 2nd lefty reliever)
- Erasmo Ramirez
As you can see, even without Maurer, the Mariners have an insane surplus of relief pitching. There is NO WAY we’re keeping all of these guys. Rollins is a Rule 5 guy, so unless we want to work out a trade with the Astros, we either have to keep him on our Major League roster or give him back. Now, if he stinks in Spring Training, I don’t think the team will have any problem giving him back. But, if he shows promise, but otherwise isn’t totally ready to stick in the Bigs, then a tough decision will have to be made.
To determine who stays, let’s take a look at the locks on this team. The Mariners have 10 regular everyday players and they’ll keep 5 starting pitchers. That leaves 10 roster spots. You have to keep a backup catcher, so that brings us to 9. You have to keep a utility infielder, so there’s 8. At this point, the Mariners will have to decide what’s more important: an 8th reliever, or another backup first baseman/outfielder. With a healthy Bloomquist, you can conceivably plug him in at first in a pinch. Montero still has options, as do Jones and Romero (who would be another option as a backup outfielder).
The bullpen locks are as follows: Rodney, Farquhar, Medina, Wilhelmsen, and Furbush. Leone stuck with the Mariners all year last year and proved to be effective in going multiple innings. Smith came up late, but absolutely destroyed everyone in his path. I like Smith more than Leone, but if I had my druthers, I’d keep them both. And, if they do, well, that’s 7 bullpen arms right there, and we haven’t even added a second lefty.
So, there you go. The final spot will either be a second lefty reliever, Jesus Montero, a fifth outfielder, or someone else entirely, because it’s impossible to predict a 25-man roster this far out.
Before I move on, I’d like to comment on Erasmo Ramirez, as he’s an interesting case. Ramirez is out of options. And, by all accounts, Ramirez will NOT pass through waivers. So, either he makes the Mariners out of Spring Training, or he’s traded at some point in Spring Training to try to recoup SOME value out of him, or he’s DFA’d at the end of Spring Training and some other team claims a perfectly good long reliever/spot starter.
For the record, I don’t think Ramirez makes the Mariners unless there’s a rash of injuries. We’re talking about two of the above-referenced starting pitchers, or a bevy of the above-referenced relievers. If that’s the case, I could see him sticking in a long relief role, but those are some LONG odds.
The world is pretty high on the Seattle Mariners in 2015. There are reasonable odds in Vegas for this team to win it all. There are various sabermetric arguments made that this is one of the top teams in the American League (if not THE top team). You’re looking at a Mariners team that fell one win short of vying for a Wild Card spot, that has improved in some key areas while at the same time retained talent at other key areas.
Even with the loss of Maurer, as I mentioned above, this team is LOADED in the bullpen. I can’t tell you how huge that is. Of course, the bullpen could completely shit the bed and it wouldn’t be a total shocker. But, I like the chances of a bunch of hard-throwing strikeout righties.
The rotation, if it can manage to be healthier than it was in 2014, could be quite formidable. Felix is the best pitcher alive. Iwakuma has proven to be a stout second banana. The sky’s the limit for Paxton. Happ should benefit from Safeco’s dimensions as a Vargas-type lefty. Elias has already proven to be effective in the Bigs. And, the sky’s also the limit for Walker if he cracks the rotation. I believe the phrase we’re looking for is Pigs In Shit. The Mariners are like pigs in shit with this pitching staff.
As for the everyday players, take a look at this lineup and see how it works for you:
- Austin Jackson – CF
- Dustin Ackley – LF
- Robbie Cano – 2B
- Nelson Cruz – DH
- Kyle Seager – 3B
- Logan Morrison – 1B
- Seth Smith (against righties) / Justin Ruggiano (against lefties) – RF
- Mike Zunino – C
- Brad Miller / Chris Taylor – SS
Huh? How about it? Does that season your potatoes?
Now, of course, there are concerns. A-Jax was pretty terrible last year. We’re either banking on him bouncing back, or we’re going to throw a worthless pile of crap out there in the leadoff spot every day for a number of months. If A-Jax fails us, I’m not gonna lie to you, we’re KINDA screwed. But, moving on, Ackley has proven – if nothing else in his Major League career – to be completely unreliable. Just when you think he’s solved all his problems, he goes in the tank. Just when you think he’s a worthless bum, he starts raking for a couple months. So, I dunno.
The Mariners are rock solid in the middle of the order, which is more than you could say about this team in the last decade. The only thing that knocks us out is if Cano, Cruz, or Seager suffer some injuries.
Beyond that, the bottom half of the order is interesting, and potentially terrifying. The latest issue of concern is Logan Morrison. He hasn’t proven to be healthy in his career, which will be a kick in the groin because we have NOBODY behind him. Jesus Montero – while 30-35 pounds lighter than last year – is still a longshot to be even DECENT as a first baseman. After Montero, who do you got? D.J. Peterson is probably a year away; it would be a miracle if we bring him up this year and he succeeds. Ji-Man Choi had a shitty 2014 coming off of a PED suspension. The free agent market is deader than dead. It’s bad out there for a first baseman-hungry team like the Mariners. Just cross your fingers, pray LoMo stays healthy, and try not to think about the consequences if he doesn’t.
The Smith/Ruggiano platoon is interesting because it seems almost TOO perfect, you know? Smith is a lefty who rakes against righties; Ruggiano is a righty who rakes against lefties. There’s NO WAY this works out the way we planned it, is there? Even if we stick to the platoon and don’t mess with anything, you gotta figure one or both will either suffer a massive injury and/or take a huge step back as he tries to contend with Safeco’s dimensions. This’ll be a Believe It When I See It type of situation.
Zunino is still Zunino, which means he’ll mash over 20 homers, strike out a ton, and play solid defense. You figure with a full year under his belt, there’s bound to be some natural progression, so hopefully he works out some of the kinks. Then, we’ve got a short stop battle for the ages. The offensively-challenged Taylor vs. the wild card Miller. I like Miller for his power bat, but either way this is a GREAT problem to have.
I’m not ready to crown their asses just yet, but I’m sure the excitement for the Mariners will start building once football season ends. February 20th: Pitchers & Catchers report. Spring Training kicks off the first week of March. It’s almost here.