There’s a reason why the point spread went from 13.5 all the way up to 15.5 in the matter of just a few days since Sunday. Nothing has changed about these two teams; at least, nothing of a significant consequence. The only thing that’s changed is betting trends and Las Vegas’ reaction to those trends.
EVERYONE is betting on the Steelers to cover by 2+ touchdowns. It’s just something that’s not even a question. They WILL beat us and they will beat us badly.
I’m not going to come on here and contradict the vast majority; I agree that there is no way whatsoever that the Seahawks come away from Pittsburgh with a victory. What I’m curious about is: how do the Seahawks beat the spread?
My dislike for the Steelers might only be surpassed by my dislike for people who make money due to the Steelers killing my team. I want all of these gamblers to lose their shirts! The only way that’s going to happen is if the Seahawks somehow manage to keep things close.
First of all, we’re going to need the defense to show up. Yeah, it would be awesome if we could force some punts or, God help us, turnovers. Ideally, the defense could even turn those turnovers into points directly, without the middleman of an inept offense. But, realistically, what I mean by “showing up” is to keep Pittsburgh out of the endzone. At least for a WHILE. Like, a half, at minimum. Give them all the field goals they want, but don’t give up any big plays and don’t let them slice & dice us like Wolfgang Puck.
Secondly, those gaping holes in our special teams need to be sealed shut! We may not be able to move the ball against them; we may not be able to stop them from moving the ball against us; but we damn sure can avoid giving them huge chunks of yardage on returns (I’m assuming they’ll be punt returns for the most part, so it’s all the more important).
Third, we’re going to have to dig ourselves a big hole early in the second half. Hear me out! If my first two steps hold serve, then let’s say we’re down 12-0 at halftime thanks to them getting four field goals on four long drives. Early in the third quarter, our defense will be tired and Pittsburgh will have made adjustments; THAT’S when they go up 19-0. That’s when they’ll let off the gas a little bit.
Not a lot, mind you, because that defense will be starving for a shutout if they can smell blood in the water in the second half. So, somewhere (maybe it’s the first half, maybe it’s early in the second half) we’re going to have to hit a field goal. Maybe instead of 12-0 at half, it’s 12-3 because we got our two minute offense going late and hit a long field goal as the clock expired. If we give them a 19-3 or a 22-3 lead, that should really take the wind out of their defense’s sails!
That’s when we strike. In a furious fourth quarter where they’re playing prevent defense (and trying to run out the clock on offense), maybe the Seahawks drive for a TD. Maybe we go for 2. Maybe at that point it’s 22-11 and they decide to kick a field goal … and maybe at that point we drive for a meaningless score with less than 2 minutes to play!
I’m not saying it’s a fool-proof plan. I’m just saying it’s probably the only way we’ll beat this spread.
Hold them to field goals early (because if they’re up 30-0 at half, kiss that comeback goodbye), manage some semblance of points before the fourth quarter, and then when they’ve got a comfortable lead, hit ’em where it hurts. You mess with the bull, you get the horns!
You hear me, gamblers? Your days are numbered! These Seahawks mean business! Maybe next time you’ll think twice about betting against us with a 2-touchdown spread and seemingly impossible odds!