This was me last year. I like doing these posts because I’m an idiot. So, without further ado, here’s how I think the NFL season is going to go down.
(How’s that for an intro to get your juices flowing?)
I tend to have a pretty good idea of where things stand – or, at least, where I THINK things will stand – by this point in the pre-season. But, I’m more befuddled this year than probably any other year. I start to REALLY second-guess myself when I start predicting repeat division champions, because that’s generally what all the national pundits go with and the national pundits are fucking morons.
That having been said, you might see a lot of repeaters out of me this year. Since I can’t predict where injuries are going to fall, I have to look at straight up talent. And Philly has it all over the rest of the teams in the East. For the record, all four of these teams have just the worst defenses, but I think the Eagles have it a hair above the others. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to see something of a bounce-back year out of the Giants and Eli Manning to perhaps get to 9 wins. Dallas will score a lot and they’ll give up a lot, and Tony Romo will be Tony Romo. Something in the 7-win range is in order. RGIII is looking at a new coaching staff and probably some more growing pains. If you’re a Redskins fan, you probably hate to see your young quarterback suffer coaching instability this early into his career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stay healthier this year, but also take a step back as they try to turn him into a pocket passer. Watch out for a potential QB controversy here as well.
Gotta take a chance in your predictions somewhere. I thought Detroit was poised to crack the playoffs last year, but ultimately their coaching staff was comprised of nothing but fuckups. Your team reflects that. This year, they’ve got a calming influnece in Jim Caldwell. I didn’t like him as much trying to follow Tony Dungy in Indy, but I like him here taking over a hyper-talented offense. That team should be averaging 30 points per game; how they improve their rushing attack will dictate how efficiently they’re able to score. And the defense HAS talented pieces. I think Caldwell’s staff will be able to get the most out of this unit, and I think the Lions will push through to take the division with 10 or 11 wins.
I still think Green Bay will be good, but they’ve got a brutal schedule. They start 4 of 6 on the road, including games at Seattle, Detroit, Chicago, and Miami. They also have to go to New Orleans and Tampa, while catching New England, Atlanta, Carolina, and Philly at home. Like I said: BRUTAL. Chicago still stinks on defense and shouldn’t be anything to worry about. Jay Cutler is still Jay Cutler and he’ll continue taking stupid chances that will be picked off in big situations (Tony Romo-lite, as it were). Minnesota will be a bottom-feeder.
You’re going to see a minimum of two playoff teams in this division, but I’ve got a feeling (and I’m staking my reputation on it) that we’ll see three. I think New Orleans is – with Seattle – among the best two teams in the conference (and maybe in all of football). Their offense is still amazing, but their defense REALLY impressed me last year, and only figures to get better as players gel and exceed expectations under their second year with Rob Ryan. It’ll be neck-and-neck with the Saints and Seahawks for the top two seeds, but ultimately the Saints will win a minimum of 12 games and hang onto that second seed.
Elsewhere, with Atlanta healthy, they’re sure to rebound. Matt Ryan is an elite quarterback and they’ve got one of the best wide receiver duos in the league with Julio Jones and Roddy White (still effective after all these years). What you have to hope for, if we’re all being honest, is that Steven Jackson doesn’t get in the way. He’s done. He’s old and slow and useless. MAYBE if they used him (when he gets healthy again) exclusively as a goalline back, he might be somewhat decent. But, they’ve got to turn that running game over to the younger backs we’ve watched on Hard Knocks this year. Defensively, they can’t help but improve just by having healthy bodies on the field. Really, they have to do just enough to make other teams work for their points and let their offense get a lead. The secondary is young and went through their growing pains last year; I would expect a good step forward out of them in 2014.
Tampa is my third playoff team. Lovie Smith is a pro’s pro at head coach. Josh McCown is a great pickup for them. He should prove for that team what Alex Smith was for KC: a steady influence that will manage the offense, keep mistakes to a minimum, and let the players around him be the stars. Defensively, Tampa is stout. Young and fast and hungry. With Lovie’s defensive-mindedness, we should be looking at a Top 10 unit, with the upside of a Top 5.
As for Carolina, I just don’t see a repeat of 2013 in their immediate future. As it was, they had practically no weapons on offense, and then they lost their top two receivers to free agency (well, Steve Smith was released, but still). Their horrendous cap situation has destroyed this team, leaving no one around Cam Newton to pick up the slack. He may be elite, but he can’t literally do EVERYTHING. The defense lost some pieces too, which should contribute to their free fall in 2014. If they get knocked around by the injury bug, you’re looking at a 4-win team. At best, I think they’re only a 6- or 7-win team.
I’ll get into this more on Thursday when I come out with my big prediction post, but I think the Seahawks – with this vastly improved offense and still-great defense – will get to 14 or 15 wins. San Francisco’s defense is getting KILLED by injuries and suspensions. Without that unit being a Top 5 (or even Top 10) unit, I think the offense will struggle as it’s tasked with carrying the load. My guess: 8-9 wins and on the outside looking in at the playoffs.
Elsewhere, I think the Rams are young enough and talented enough at certain spots to overcome the loss of Sam Bradford and look decent. Maybe they struggle early, but I could see this team coming together and stringing some quality games out towards the end of the season. Arizona is facing a similar situation with injuries and suspensions to their key defensive starters; they’ll take a step back in that area. And, I still don’t buy that the coaches will give Ellington the superstar role he deserves. With the atrocious Carson Palmer at the helm, I wouldn’t expect his health for anywhere near 16 games; and even when he IS healthy, I expect him to continue to be far below average. That’s a 3-4 win team if I’ve ever seen one.
Tom Brady continues to be the man. I don’t necessarily care for their receivers, but if Gronk can return to anywhere near his form two years ago, they’ll manage. The running game is always a question mark for this team, but I think they’ll get by with their committee approach. I like Miami’s potential on offense, as they bring in a new coordinator who worked with Philly last year. Up-tempo, lots of short passes for Tannehill, and an improved running game should be just what the doctor ordered. I REALLY wanted to pick them as a Wild Card team, but I think they’ll just miss out. Still, we could be looking at a 9- or 10-win team, giving them hope for the future. The Jets still should be good on defense, but I don’t think they’ll have enough on offense to win late in games. Buffalo kind of looks like a trainwreck right now.
The AFC is where you’re going to see a lot of the repeat predictions out of me. Cincinnati is a nice, well-rounded team. Andy Dalton will probably never make the jump to elite status, and will thus struggle to win games in the playoffs. But, in the regular season, against some of the lesser teams in the AFC, with the talent around him, he’ll continue to put up good-enough numbers to stay employed. Defensively, I like them a lot. Again, nothing flashy, but just all-around solid. I’d expect a lot of 24-10 games out of this team in 2014.
Pittsburgh was an 8-8 team last year and they were old and injury-riddled throughout. Their offensive line should improve just by staying healthy, if they can manage it. Roethlisberger may be on the downside of his career, but he’s got enough in the tank for a couple/few more runs at the playoffs. Antonio Brown is a stud, and if their running backs manage to bounce back from their weed-smoking infraction late in the pre-season, we could be looking at a very solid team. How the Steelers will fare depends entirely on working in younger players on defense around the veteran starters they retained. I think it’ll be just enough to snag a 6-seed.
Baltimore still looks to be reeling from that insane contract they gave Flacco. Their running game sucks, and if they continue to lean on their wacky pass-first mentality, it figures to be a long season for them again. Joe Flacco had that great Super Bowl run a couple years ago, but he’s not an elite quarterback. Torrey Smith tantalizes in fantasy, but ultimately falls short of expectations. Defensively, I’m not convinced they’ll be in the top half in the league. And, as for Cleveland, you’re looking at one of the worst teams in football. They’ll be drafting high again; so Browns fans better hope they have the general manager in place – with all of their draft capital – to rebuild smartly.
Has anyone led a more charmed life than Colts fans over the last couple decades? They have maybe the best quarterback of all time for the bulk of his career – culminating in two Super Bowl appearances and one title – then he gets injured for one year, they win the #1 pick, and they have the great fortune to draft Andrew Luck: another guy who may end up as one of the best of all time. AND, to top it all off, just as Luck comes into the league, the rest of their division totally falls apart, giving him every opportunity to win this division for the foreseeable future. It’s Indy and everybody else in the AFC South.
I like Jacksonville to continue to improve under Gus Bradley. Blake Bortles will contend with Derek Carr of the Raiders for best QB in his draft class. Hopefully, they can bring him along slowly and give him a soft landing somewhere around mid-season. I can easily see this team scratch its way to 8 wins. I don’t think Locker will ever be able to stay healthy and prove what he’s capable of. Even if he does play the bulk of their games, this just isn’t a good team. They have an upside of probably 7 wins. Houston will fight with Cleveland, Buffalo, and the Raiders for that top draft pick in next year’s draft.
Manning has another year in him. Their defense is vastly improved. They shouldn’t miss Decker too much with Sanders in the fold. The running game will always be secondary as long as Manning is behind the center. This is a Top 2 team in the AFC. San Diego should look even better than last year’s team that snuck into the playoffs. They’ll still be a Wild Card team, but I like them to be one of the better Wild Card teams in football and give either Cincy or Indy a run for their money in that 4/5 playoff game. Kansas City lost pieces in the defense and they still don’t have an elite receiver. They’ll go as far as Jamaal Charles takes them, and I really wonder about his health. The Raiders will
start to be interesting as soon as they bench Schaub’s ass and put Carr into the starting role be much more exciting with Carr as a starter. Carr may not light the league on fire the way he did against the Seahawks in that final pre-season game, but he’ll look plenty good and keep them in some ballgames. Still, you hate to see one of the worst teams also as one of the oldest. I could see injuries take this team down for the count early.
- New Orleans
- Tampa Bay
- New England
- San Diego
Wild Card Round
Detroit over Tampa Bay
Atlanta over Philadelphia
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
San Diego over Cincinnati
Seattle over Atlanta
New Orleans over Detroit
Indianapolis over New England
Denver over San Diego
Seattle over New Orleans
Denver over Indianapolis
Seattle over Denver
Predicting a repeat of the previous year’s Super Bowl matchup is about as hokey as it gets, I know. But, one thing I won’t do is predict something different just because the odds are so far against a repeat matchup. Seattle and Denver are, by far, the best two teams in football again this year. And, it’s not like it’s an impossible feat – Dallas and Buffalo had a couple repeat Super Bowl matchups in the early 90s.
My thing is – and I’ll deny it to my grave if I’m wrong – I have a SERIOUS nagging worry that the Seahawks and Denver will both make it back to the Super Bowl, but it’ll be the Broncos hoisting the Lombardi trophy while we sit and watch, devastated. Again, that’s not what I THINK will happen, but it’ll always be in the back of my mind until Peyton Manning breaks an ankle around midseason and completely blows up this predictions post.
For the record, I’m two for my last two in predicting Super Bowl matchups and Super Bowl winners. I had Baltimore over San Francisco, and I had Seattle over Denver. I’m on a pretty good run here, so let’s see if I can keep it going.