Yeah, so this time it’s Roenis Elias & Carson Smith to the Red Sox for Wade Miley & Jonathan Aro.
From what I understand, the main pieces in this deal are Smith for Miley; the Red Sox needed a dominant, late-inning reliever, and the Mariners needed a mediocre, left-handed innings eater. That may be oversimplifying things a bit, but not all that much. I feel like Aro was thrown in to help mitigate the sting of giving away our best reliever; he looks like a guy on the cusp of competing for a Major League roster spot. And, I feel like Elias was thrown in … because the Red Sox were asking for the moon and the stars and the Mariners decided to oblige?
A lot of Mariners fans hate this deal, so Welcome To Seattle, Jerry Dipoto! Mariners fans are probably going to hate A LOT of your deals, because as Seattle sports fans, we’ve had a lot of experience getting shafted by inept general managers. This just sounds like a lot to give up, to get so little in return.
Carson Smith, many believe (I among them) will be a dominant pitching force for years to come. He’s already great now, just think of how awesome he’ll be with five more years of experience! This has shades of trading away Jeff Nelson back in December of 1995; he went to the Yankees and won a bunch of championships with Tino Martinez and the gang. So, that right there is bad enough. When you throw in Elias – another young guy who should only improve with experience, and who’s already had the better part of two seasons in the Major Leagues as it is – it’s hard to feel, as a Mariners fan, like we haven’t just been bent over and taken to town with a 12-inch strap-on dildo.
For what? Wade Miley and a prospect? Wade Miley, the second coming of J.A. Happ’s miserable half-season with the Mariners before he miraged his way through the National League into an insane contract with the Blue Jays this offseason? What did we do to deserve THIS?
Well, for starters, blame the rest of the fucking league for paying through their asses for some of these pitchers. I mean, seriously, over $30 million per year for Zack Greinke and David Price? Get the fuck right out of here! I know these guys are great pitchers, but no one is WORTH that much! Enjoy your albatross contracts when they inevitably get injured and start to decline.
Anyway, as a result of that, and with a specific nod to the Dodgers for prying Iwakuma away to the tune of 3 years & $45 million, the Mariners had to do something in this pitching-crazy market. That something, apparently, was to trade for a lefty starter with mediocre numbers, whose greatest attribute has been his health. Because if there’s ever a curse that comes with having mediocre players on your baseball team, it’s the curse of everlasting health.
For what it’s worth, I am glad the Mariners didn’t go to a third year with Iwakuma. I like Kuma as much as the next guy, but he can’t stay healthy to save his life. It sucks having to count on him, only to see him miss two months every year. Which brings up the interesting question: would you rather have four months of a quality, ace-lite starting pitcher, or a full season with a 4th/5th starter who will be great one week, and then can’t get out of the second inning the next? I’m torn on the subject.
The one variable we have yet to discover is how Miley will be affected by pitching in Safeco. I know, we went through this same thing with Happ just last year, but if Miley can turn into a Jason Vargas-like pitcher for us, while continuing to eat up innings, this deal might be palatable.
When you look at the big picture, you can see why the Mariners went this way. We preserve our 11th overall draft pick by not signing a free agent pitcher with a qualifying offer. We also save some money by not paying those extravagant free agency prices, as Miley is set to earn just under $15 million combined over the next two years (with a $12 million option on the third year, if we’d like to keep him). In this context, it’s pretty apparent that the team is in no position to increase salary this year. I’m not necessarily saying this is good or bad, but it appears to be a fact. Right now, counting just the players under a Major League contract (not counting arbitration guys, or younger guys under team control), we’ve got $102,250,000 tied up in 11 players. When you pad that out with the rest of the guys on the 40-man, you’re looking at a team that’s RIGHT around its payroll limit. There might be a moderate increase for a lower-tier first baseman (potential platoon option with Jesus Montero, should he show continued signs of life in Spring Training), but other than that, some flyers on veteran pitchers, and maybe another bullpen arm or two, what you see is what you’re going to get.
As for the rotation itself, as noted above, Miley is a considerable step down in talent from Iwakuma. That’s going to put some pressure on some other guys to step up. With Iwakuma in the fold, the Mariners had a natural #2 type pitcher to slot in behind Felix. Now? Someone is going to have to step into that role. Is that pitcher Taijuan Walker? I sure as shit hope he’s ready to make the leap, because if he’s not ready, we’re looking at a lot of 4/5-type starters in this rotation behind The King. Karns is young & unproven. Paxton is also young & unproven, plus he’s an injury waiting to happen and our most likely trade chip. Montgomery is unproven and another likely trade chip. Nuno is probably better suited as a bullpen guy/long reliever/spot starter; but, I’m starting to get the feeling that he’ll have a very real opportunity to lock down the 5th starter’s job, especially if Paxton is dealt for a first baseman and/or turns up injured again.
I’m pretty sure I read a quote somewhere from our GM about the Miley trade, saying that he wanted to bring in a proven guy who will take the ball every fifth day, to help compensate for the fact that we’re relying on so many younger guys to fill out our rotation. I think that was something of a shot at Elias (indirectly, of course), as he, along with our other fringe starters, have been anything but consistent. But, I’ll tell you what, if those younger guys don’t develop in a hurry, we could be looking at another long season.
As for Elias, it really stinks that he was a throw-in to this deal. He was an excellent security blanket to be able to stash in AAA in the likely event of injury. I mean, how often are you able to bring up a guy with significant Major League experience to either spot start for you or flat out slot into your rotation for a few months? Elias wasn’t the greatest, but I thought he battled out there like a pro. Give him another year or two, and I think he’ll be a rock-solid starter for years to come. Maybe not an All Star, but could he really be THAT much worse than Wade Miley?
Now hearing about a trade bringing in Adam Lind from the Brewers. Plays first base, gets on base a lot. GIVE US A BREAK!!!!