The Huskies lost at Oregon last night, 86-73. I watched less than two minutes of the game, because I was too engrossed in watching my Oscar pool fall apart after starting the broadcast with 10 straight victories before finishing with only 17 of 24 correct. I guess Chriss got into some foul trouble and had a terrible game, I guess Andrews and Murray tried to do all they could, but in the end we’re just not in Oregon’s league this year. Which is something you could practically say every fucking year, which just makes me want to murder every single person I see.
There’s one game left against the hapless Washington State Cougars (who gave us a big scare early in the conference season, but has only won a single game against a Pac-12 opponent). Win or lose, it doesn’t really matter, at all. I suppose since it’s Senior Day, it would be nice to send Andrew Andrews off with a victory (especially considering he hasn’t had a ton of those in his Husky career), but this game has no bearing whatsoever on our NCAA Tournament standing. It’s simple:
The Huskies have to win the Pac-12 Tournament, or they will be going to the N.I.T.
As the week goes on, I’m going to get into Reasons Why The Huskies Won’t Win The Pac-12 Tournament, and Reasons Why The Huskies Could Possibly Shock The World, because for as lame as they’ve been over the last 11 games (winning only 3 of them), this team is still talented enough to win four straight games against this competition; a miracle run is still very much on the table! Unlikely, but I’m not ruling it out.
The Huskies currently sit 9th in conference, and can do no worse than 9th. The Huskies can climb as high as 6th or 7th (depending on how tiebreakers work, which I feel like the Huskies would lose all of them somehow). The three teams currently ahead of the Huskies (that we could also catch) are USC, Oregon State, and Stanford, all at 8-8 in conference play. The L.A. schools play the Oregon schools, so the Trojans or the Beavers have to win at least one more game, making 6th place probably not likely for the Huskies. Assuming we beat Wazzu and end up 9-9, I think there’s a very good chance that we pass Stanford (who has to go to the Arizona schools and will probably lose both), which wouldn’t make any difference because they’re the 8-seed and we’d still have to play them in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament anyway. I think I’d bet the farm on OSU and USC both finishing 9-9, with an outside chance of a 4-way tie at 9-9 between them, the Huskies, and the Cardinal if they can figure out a way to beat ASU this week.
OK, so I just looked up tiebreakers. If there are more than two teams tied, you pit the records against the tied teams in the regular season. The Huskies are 2-2, Stanford is also 2-2, USC is 1-3 (with 1 game remaining) and OSU is 3-1 (with 1 game remaining). So, a multi-way tie with Oregon State prevents the Huskies from reaching the 6-seed. If that gets you down to two teams (or if we just start with a two-team tie), then it’s result of head-to-head (Huskies were 1-0 against Stanford, so that takes them down a peg; 1-1 against USC, 0-1 against OSU).
So, rank the teams like this:
- Oregon State
Which means there’s a really good chance the Huskies go into the Pac-12 Tournament as the 7-seed, playing UCLA as the 10-seed. Not for nothing, but we’ve beaten UCLA twice already this year (by a combined 5 points, so it’s probably a good bet they take the Huskies down this time). The winner of this game would play the 2-seed, which right now looks to be Utah, which as I’ve said before is probably Husky Kryptonite.
So, that’s what we’ve got to look forward to. Beating the 2-seed would lead us into playing the 3-seed (which is most likely going to be Cal, unless Cal somehow loses out), which would likely lead us into playing Oregon in the championship game.
Hope everyone is ready for an anti-climactic couple of weeks of Pac-12 hoops!