I’ve been saying all along we need to hold off until we see all the moves in context. Well, it’s the afternoon of August 1st, and all the major moves have been made (it’s still possible to get rid of someone like Lind – who has a fat contract and doesn’t bring a ton to the table – before the end of the month, but that won’t mean much at this point, as I’ll get into later).
First, we had Montgomery for Vogelbach, and we didn’t know what to think. That one probably sits more in the camp of The Future than Win Now, but Montgomery is more or less just a bullpen piece at this point, and Vogelbach could be called up to Seattle at any time.
Next, we had Benoit for Storen, which was an obvious Greener Pastures move for two struggling relievers. Not much insight there (though, again, you see the Mariners go younger to bring in a guy with more upside, even if his contract expires after this year).
Now, we’ve got Wade Miley going to Baltimore for minor league starter Ariel Miranda. I know I’ve been conducting the Hate Train on Miley pretty much since he started showing us how worthless he is, but there’s no rational way to look at this move as anything other than a sell-off. Miley was set to earn upwards of $9 million next year, with a club option for 2018 that would’ve paid out $12 million. At the very least, we avoid that high salary next year and the $500,000 buy-out for 2018 (the Mariners sent no money Baltimore’s way, so it’s all on them now).
I don’t know why people are so upset! I mean, yeah, I get it, the Mariners are sellers, and not even GOOD sellers. They sold off scraps and got back question marks. Part of that, I’m sure, is that there weren’t any good deals out there. But, you can’t help but see this amalgam of moves as the Mariners – once again – trying to have it both ways. They get to be sellers without going so far as selling our most prized assets (*cough* NELSON CRUZ *cough*), but they can also say, “Look, we’re still pretty much the same team we were in the first two months, so let’s not totally close the door on this contention thing.”
And sure, I get it, Miley’s been on an upswing recently. He’s on a run of 3 quality starts in a row, and 4 out of his last 5 starts. Hell, his most recent outing – Saturday, against the Cubs – was his very best of the season! But, don’t forget the rest of the starts. Don’t forget all the bullshit outings we got out of Miley this year. A guy who was supposed to be – AT WORST – an innings eater, couldn’t even do THAT! What value does that guy have, who brings nothing to the table whatsoever? He’s not going to get you some stud prospect. He’s going to get you exactly who we got.
Ariel Miranda, with 1 career Major League appearance. Who’s played the bulk of his career in Cuba, who just made Baltimore’s AAA club this season. He’s a lefty starter with a good fastball (94 mph range) and a good changeup (he’s actually better against righties than lefties), but nothing much going on with his other breaking balls.
In my book, this guy is no worse than Miley RIGHT NOW.
Everyone points to Miley’s experience as the deciding factor, but what does that mean? I take it to mean you know what you’re going to get with Miley. That the younger pitcher will be wild and inconsistent from start to start. Well, look at the breakdown of 29 year old Miley’s starts with the Mariners this year, from April through July:
- Bad Start
- Bad Start
- Really Bad Start
- Good Start
- Great Start
- Good Start
- Bad Start
- Good Start
- Bad Start
- Bad Start
- Really Bad Start
- Great Start
- Bad Start
- Really Bad Start
- Good Start
- Bad Start
- Good Start
- Good Start
- Great Start
Tell me, where’s the consistency? For what it’s worth, a Good Start is like a regular Quality Start; a Great Start is 7 innings or more with 2 runs or less; a Bad Start is 4 runs or more (or a 3-run, 5 inning start); a Really Bad Start is anything less than 5 innings.
Miley has as many Really Bad Starts as Great Starts. He has more Bad Starts than Good Starts. That’s not acceptable, at all, from a veteran starter earning as much money as Miley makes. He’s a fucking washed up joke, and it’s Baltimore’s loss.
You’re telling me Ariel Miranda can’t give us Miley-esque production as a back-end starter right now? Because I think he can. And if he does, then boom, the Mariners have already won that trade, because he’s making peanuts, is younger, and has more upside. He just needs a chance.
If you ask me, the Mariners got better RIGHT NOW, just by getting rid of Miley.
What does this mean going forward though? It means, starting tonight, the Mariners have to nut up or shut up. Felix has to round back into his dominant form. Paxton needs to be a stud. Walker needs to return and stay healthy. Iwakuma needs to continue his run of quality pitching. And one of our 5th starters needs to emerge. Wade LeBlanc, Ariel Miranda, or Nathan Karns (seems unlikely on the Karns one, but the other two are possibilities).
It means, starting tonight, the bullpen needs to coalesce. Absolutely NO MORE BLOWN SAVES from Cishek. If he blows one more game, he’s done as the closer, period. Keep putting Diaz in there in the most pressure-packed situations and hope he continues to shine. And the veterans – Wilhelmsen, Nuno, Storen, eventually Furbush, hopefully Vincent – need to be dialed in.
We need two months of pure excellence out of the entire pitching staff in order to get this thing done. Anything less, and you’re going to see more of the same frustrating .500 ball that we’ve been watching of late. Because this is it! This is the team we have, for the final two months of the season. No more help is walking through that door. In fact, guys are more likely to leave, if we can find any takers for Lind, Aoki, or Seth Smith (all names I’ve heard bandied about in trade rumors).
But, even if we do find takers, don’t expect to get a lot in return. Removing Lind, Aoki, or Smith are cost-cutting moves plain and simple. You only get those guys off your team if you think they won’t be of any help to you reaching the playoffs, and you want to open up some roster spots for younger guys like Vogelbach, like the recently recalled Guillermo Heredia, like whoever else in Tacoma you want to see drink a cup of coffee.
My bet is that this upcoming homestand – starting tonight with 4 against the Red Sox, then 3 against the Angels over the weekend, then 3 more against the Tigers – is going to be the most important homestand of the year. There’s one off-day this month for the Mariners, and it takes place after that Tigers series. If you don’t see something like an 8-2 record in those ten games, I think we go into full-on Play For Next Year mode. I think you start seeing more guys from Tacoma called up. I think you start seeing guys like Aoki and Lind and maybe even Smith getting released or traded for peanuts. I think you see a switch at closer, and you see even more crappy Tacoma relievers called up to show what they can do.
That’s because, after the homestand, it’s 20 games in a row, all but 6 on the road. The Dog Days! They’re here! With the August 31st waivers deadline, followed by the September call-ups, if the Mariners haven’t made up a significant chunk of their 5-game deficit in the Wild Card standings, you’re going to see a whole lotta mailing it in. How soon that starts will be dictated in the next 10 days.
Pressure’s on, Mariners. Are you going to be like all the other shitty Mariners teams we’ve suffered through recently? Or, are you actually going to shock the world?