- Seth Smith (OF) to Baltimore for Yovani Gallardo (SP)
- Nathan Karns (SP) to Kansas City for Jarrod Dyson (OF)
When I look at that, I see one good trade and one bad one. Let’s start with the bad.
Seth Smith has real value as a platoon outfielder, mostly for his bat, and if dealt to the right team, could be a nice little addition to a championship roster. In that sense, considering how good Baltimore already was, this feels right for them. He doesn’t need to play every day, he doesn’t even need to start! He’ll come in and pinch hit for them down the stretch or in the playoffs and make a big impact, I’m sure of it.
Gallardo, meanwhile, is a guy whose best years are CLEARLY behind him. He peaked between 2009-2012 with Milwaukee and has seen his strikeout numbers plummet ever since. Considering he’s ostensibly supposed to be a right-handed power arm, that’s certainly cause for concern. He was still more or less effective through the 2015 season, but that saw him hover around the 180 innings range. For a guy who’s also supposed to be an “innings eater”, I mean, I guess averaging 6 innings per start is okay, but I dunno.
Then, last year, he played in Baltimore, and he didn’t play well. He had a shoulder injury that kept him out of the rotation for 8 weeks, and upon his return he could never get it going. The Orioles sent over $2 million to offset the $11 million he’s making this year. And, if he totally flames out, all it will take is $2 million more to take care of his buyout next year (he’s set to earn $13 million otherwise). Like a lot of other guys Jerry Dipoto has brought in during his tenure here, we’re hoping for a bounce-back year. And, considering it looks like he’s more or less locked into the #4 starter role – with the loss of Taijuan Walker – we’re REALLY hoping he bounces back.
My ultimate takeaway is that I knew all along the Mariners were going to do something to bring in another veteran starter. It’s just a shame this is the best we could do. I feel like any number of free agents on the market would be a better gamble. Considering the starting pitching on this team was already a weakness coming into this offseason, and then we traded away Taijuan, I was just hoping we had something more impressive up our sleeves than a guy who might be done as soon as this year.
As for the good trade, SO LONG KARNS! I can’t say that I’m going to miss him. I really don’t give a shit that he has a ton of team control (while Dyson has just one year left on his deal), because we’ve already played that game. Team control is meaningless if the player is terrible. Karns had a full year in 2015 with the Rays and showed some promise, but it was also clear that he couldn’t go deep into games and they were really protecting him with his innings count. He had every opportunity in 2016 with the Mariners to cement his status as a starting pitcher in this league, but in 15 starts I’d say he really only had about 2 good ones. Most games, he struggled just to get through 5 innings. Eventually, the team had to demote him to reliever, before he was demoted to Tacoma, and then put on the DL. At that point, he fell off the face of the Earth, so I don’t even know if he’s healthy again, or if he’s spending this winter rehabbing. For all I know, he might not ever start again! Considering he didn’t throw all that hard, and his stuff wasn’t all that good (he had an okay curve ball, when he could control it, which was almost never), I’m hard pressed to peg him as even turning into a quality reliever. He feels like a guy who’s going to be out of baseball in the next year or two. Better to cut bait now and get what you can.
Which, in this case, is a guy I really like! Dyson isn’t an impressive hitter by any stretch. He’s got no power whatsoever, so go ahead and put that out of your mind. I’m not even sure he’s destined to be an everyday starter with this team. He’ll probably hit for around .250-.260, he’s improving with his on-base percentage, and across the last five years he’s averaged over 30 stolen bases per season. When you top him off as a quality defender, and pair him with Leonys Martin in center, you’re talking about a ton of speed at the bottom of our lineup (unless he starts to hit out of his mind, in which case you could see him move up in the lineup) and a ton of outfield defense. Which, for this pitching staff, it’s pretty easy to see how this will be a good thing.
So, in taking these two trades as a whole, did the Mariners improve? Well, if you look at it this way:
- Gallardo for Karns
- Dyson for Smith
I think you could say we did. Say what you will about Gallardo, but he’s sure as shit better than Karns! And, I know we all like Seth Smith’s bat, but he’s been prone to cold streaks (particularly late in seasons) and has batted around .250 both years he’s been in Seattle. You figure his on-base percentage will be better than Dyson’s, but the difference in baserunning and defense puts Dyson WAY ahead in this thing.
It’s still not an ideal team, but it’s rounding into something respectable. The lineup in particular is something you’ve gotta like. I’ve got it like this:
- Segura (SS)
- Valencia (1B)
- Cano (2B)
- Cruz (DH)
- Seager (3B)
- Ruiz (C)
- Martin (CF)
- Haniger (RF)
- Dyson (LF)
Or, depending on the opposing pitcher, and how well guys are playing, you could sub in Vogelbach at first base, pushing Valencia to one of the corner outfield spots. Also, put Haniger in the same outfield pile as Gamel, Heredia, Powell, and O’Malley; not all of those guys will crack the Opening Day roster, but they’re just a phone call away if they start out in Tacoma. Still, I like the first seven guys in that lineup an awful lot, and there are many reasons for optimism about Haniger and Dyson as well.
The tricky thing is the pitching staff, particularly the rotation:
Word from Dipoto is that the Mariners are still looking to bolster their depth in the rotation, which I would say is a MUST. Nevertheless, it sounds like we shouldn’t expect a big splash. If we get a free agent, expect it to be a low-level guy. If it’s a trade, expect it to be for another fringe prospect. It doesn’t sound like, at this time, the Mariners will be selling the farm (what little farm we’ve got left) to bring in a stud. We’ll see where they’re at by the end of June though.
The bullpen actually looks like it’s rounding into shape. There are plenty of guys to choose from, and I’m sure a few more moves will be made here, but these are the guys I like:
- Closer – Diaz
- RHP – Cishek
- RHP – Scribner
- RHP – Zych
- RHP – Vincent
- LHP – Scrabble
There’s room for one more reliever on there, I would expect a second lefty, but we’ll see. On paper, those six guys look pretty good, but they don’t play the games on paper.
Next month, pitchers and catchers report, and we get this thing going. I’m sure we’ll have a better idea of what to expect regarding the Opening Day roster by then.