There’s a great post over at Hawkblogger this week, taking a look at some of the decisions the Seahawks have to make looking beyond the 2017 season. As it stands, this year is pretty much set. The 2017 Seahawks might go dumpster diving at the tail end of the pre-season to pick up some bargains among other teams’ cuts, but for the most part what you see is what you get.
However, the 2018 Seahawks could look VERY different. Well, okay, maybe putting the “very” all in caps is a bit of hyperbole, but there are some big pieces that could be playing elsewhere next year. Big pieces to this team’s success dating back to 2012. Guys we’ll always remember fondly for taking this team to such dramatic heights.
Obviously, part of this conversation – as noted in the Hawkblogger article – has to do with guys who will be cut after this year; guys just not getting the job done anymore, relative to the size of their contract. Jermaine Kearse and Jeremy Lane generally top this list, but there’s just SO MUCH that can change in a year. People getting injured, people becoming disgruntled, people getting unloaded for other players and/or draft picks to try to fill a position of need. I’m not going to get into that today, as I believe there’s enough to talk about among just the impending free agents for next year.
The biggest names are as follows:
- Kam Chancellor
- Jimmy Graham
- Justin Britt
- DeShawn Shead
- Eddie Lacy
- Paul Richardson
- Luke Willson
- Cassius Marsh
- Kevin Pierre-Louis
- Luke Joeckel
- Bradley McDougald
I’m going to work my way backwards here. Let’s start off with McDougald and Joeckel. They were brought in this season, along with a flurry of other guys on 1-year deals (Aboushi, Wilhoite, Garvin, Arthur Brown, Blair Walsh, Austin Davis, maybe a couple/few others), and honestly we don’t know anything about these guys. They were given 1-year deals for a reason; they need to prove that they deserve multi-year contracts. A few of them might not even play for the Seahawks this year! Others might be relegated to backup status. And a few just might break out and have great seasons. We’ll just have to let the year play out and revisit them next off-season.
KPL and Cassius Marsh have spent the majority of their professional careers as backups and Special Teamers. Neither of these guys even have their jobs secure for THIS year, so it’s weird to talk about their futures. I do think Marsh will make the team this year, but I’m not breaking the bank to bring him back in 2018. Unless he gets blown away by another team – either with more money or an opportunity for more playing time – I think maybe Marsh goes year-to-year with the Seahawks, until either he has a breakout season, or it starts to cost too much money to keep bringing him back year-to-year. As for KPL, I think the writing is on the wall. The Seahawks went out and brought in A LOT of linebackers on 1-year deals to come in and compete for his very roster spot, because by and large he’s been something of a disappointment. I think he’s been pretty good on Special Teams, but probably not an elite-level player at that spot. Unless he’s coming into Training Camp having taken a HUGE leap, I think he’s one of the final roster cuts as the team gets to 53 players ahead of opening weekend.
Luke Willson and Paul Richardson are a couple of interesting players. Both were Seahawks draft picks with unique offensive abilities. Both have, I guess, underwhelmed in their tenure here? That’s probably not fair on Willson’s part; I think he’s been a fine player (coming from a terrible 2013 draft class) and I think he’s done what’s been expected of him. He’s been healthy for the most part, he’s in an offense that doesn’t throw a ton compared to others around the NFL, and he really hasn’t had that many opportunities to be the TE1 on this team. Sometimes guys ahead of him have gotten injured and thrust him into that role, but no one is going to put him up there with the great tight ends around the NFL. The last couple years, he’s been firmly behind Jimmy Graham (i.e. the team was so concerned about the position, they went out of their way to make a blockbuster trade to bring in a true TE1). As a TE2, I think Willson is fine. He’s had his moments, he seems to be a good all-around player, and he hasn’t really cost this team a whole lot. He’s making $1.8 million this year, on a 1-year free agent deal, because he couldn’t find anything better anywhere else in the league; that should say something about his value. I’ll be really interested in where the Seahawks go with the tight end position going forward. I think a lot has to do with what they do with Graham. If Graham gets an extension, I think that’s it for Willson. If they let Graham go in free agency, and Willson has an okay year, maybe you see the Seahawks bring him back on a 2-3 year deal at a very modest salary (just because I think it would be crippling to lose both of your top 2 TEs in the same year). Some of it will have to do with Nick Vannett, a draft pick from 2016; is HE going to take a step up? If he proves to be a capable and competent TE2, then the need to re-sign Willson goes way down (unless, again, Graham goes bye bye).
As for P-Rich, he’s the true underwhelming player of the two, from an underwhelming 2014 draft. Of course, most of that has to do with all the injuries he’s sustained, but we really saw a whole new side of him down the stretch last year and in the playoffs, once Tyler Lockett went down. The question we have to ask is: who is the real Paul Richardson? Is it the injury-prone string bean? Or, is it the athletic freak who’s jumping all over the place making crazy catches through defenders? Because, you know what? The Seahawks could REALLY use the latter. Indeed, the Seahawks have been looking for the latter pretty much since Pete Carroll got here. Richardson isn’t that tall receiver we always talk about, but when he’s doing what he was doing in the playoffs, he PLAYS like a tall receiver. If you pair THAT guy with the all-around greatness of a Doug Baldwin, and the speedy Lockett, we’re talking about one of the best wide receiver rooms in the league. For a lot of these guys coming up, I’m going to be talking about whether or not the Seahawks should do an extension ASAP, do an extension at some point during the season, or wait until the season’s over and try to re-sign them; with P-Rich, it’s still early, but I think if he comes out of the gates on fire, you look to do an extension mid-season. Get him locked up before the rest of the league has a chance to get its hooks in him. I know the injury risk is there, and I’m sure any extension would reflect that in its guarantees/incentives, but if he looks as good in the first couple months of the season as he did in the playoffs, I think you LOCK THAT DOWN.
Eddie Lacy is another guy the Seahawks brought in on a 1-year prove-it deal, but he’s different than those depth guys. He’s actually shown he belongs in this league. I think he’ll come in here in the shape they want him to be in, and I think he’ll really flourish in this system. That having been said, I’m really waffling on what the Seahawks should do with him. I do think they need to wait it out a little bit before thinking about extending him. Part of that has to do with the running back market itself; I don’t want the Seahawks to necessarily bid against themselves. Part of it also has to do with how Rawls and Prosise look. If those two stay healthy, and consistently blow teams away, is there really a need to keep Lacy beyond 2017? Ultimately, I think you have to hold off until the next off-season and do a big picture assessment. If Rawls and Prosise are hampered with nagging injuries again, and Lacy has a good year, then by all means wrap him up. But, definitely wait and see.
The Seahawks caught a bit of a break in the DeShawn Shead situation. On the one hand, yeah, it sucks balls that he’s hurt, and that he was hurt so late into last season; but on the other hand we WILL see him again in 2017. He’ll get substantial action towards the back-half of the season, which will determine his fate. Also, by that time, we should have a pretty decent idea of what we have in the new guys. If one or more of the rookies really steps up and gets better as the season goes on, then there’s less of a need to go all out in re-signing Shead. Also, if Shead fails in his rehab, or gets re-injured, then obviously his future is going to be determined by prove-it and/or incentive-laden deals. But, if Shead comes back, plays like the Shead of old, and the rookies have more growing pains to go through than expected, then I fully expect the Seahawks to put in a good effort in bringing him back. But, this would be another situation where I’d have the Seahawks hold off until next off-season.
As for Justin Britt, I’m surprisingly on the fence. Going into this, I have to point out that the Jags just gave their center the highest contract ever for a center, at 5 years and $51.7 million, with $24 million guaranteed. Is Britt worthy of that? I’m not sure; his 2017 season will have a lot to say about that. But, at the very least, that’s the market price now. It’s the high-end of the market, but it’s out there, and it’s what Britt’s agent is going to aspire to. I like Britt. I like Britt as this team’s center, and I’d like to have Britt around for the rest of Russell Wilson’s career. I like setting up a QB/Center duo and keeping them together for as long as possible; I think it’s very important to an offense’s success. I also like the fact that they’re comparing his work ethic and leadership abilities to Max Unger. I WANT that! But, do I want to pay him upwards of $50 million? When you take a look at that Hawkblogger article at the top, it shows you the percentage of what the Seahawks pay per position, and it’s clear that the team is robbing the O-Line to pay the secondary (and the defense as a whole). While we can expect a bump in the NFL’s salary cap, will it be enough to offset Britt’s new deal? Will that also allow us to extend other guys they want to or need to extend? After all, we do need to start thinking about Frank Clark, and third contracts for guys like Russell Wilson, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, and so on.
There’s also the issue of Ethan Pocic that I find utterly fascinating. To date, he really hasn’t been talked up as a guy in the driver’s seat for a job on this offensive line, even though it was God awful last year, and even though he was a 2nd round pick this year. In years past, as we’ve seen with guys like Britt and Ifedi, those higher draft picks have been slotted into starting jobs immediately upon entering the league. So, what gives with Pocic? I mean, I think the Seahawks have done an okay job in bolstering the depth along the O-Line, but it’s by no means vastly improved! You’re telling me from a strict talent point of view, Pocic isn’t immediately better than some of these crappy veterans? Which gets me to wondering if maybe this team isn’t grooming him to be Britt’s replacement. After all, he was a center primarily in college, and that appears to be his best position. Do we give him a year to learn behind Britt, then hand him the keys in 2018? Thereby saving this team money and allowing them to fill in other spots?
I guess we’ll see. In a vacuum, I’d say Britt has earned an extension and he’s earned it yesterday. But, taking everything else into consideration, where does center rank on this team’s priorities list? I’d wager not as high. In an ideal world, Britt is here for the duration, but I don’t know if that’s how the Seahawks want to operate.
Moving on, we’ve got the case for Jimmy Graham. I’ve been in love with his contract ever since we got him, because essentially nothing was guaranteed. We could’ve cut him at any point without any dead cap; and from day 1 I’ve been clamoring for the team to let it play out just as they have. So, it would make zero sense for them to extend him now. If they were going to do that, they should’ve done it before the free agency period, so they could’ve used the extra cap space to get someone better than Luke Joeckel to be this team’s left guard. Now, they COULD do the extension mid-season, but I think that would be a mistake. He made it through all the games last year intact, but I have to believe the injury from 2015 is weighing heavily on their minds. Quite frankly, I don’t like the way he’s taken some of the hits he was taking last year; he tends to get blown the fuck up in the middle of the field, and I think it’s only a matter of time before he sustains another serious injury. Also, let’s face it, he’ll be 31 in November; how many more great years does he have left? He’s obviously going to be looking for another bigtime contract, because he’s one of the most talented and athletic tight ends in the game today, but do we really want to risk it on an aging player?
For what it’s worth, even if he does get injured, as long as it’s not another devastating knee injury, I think he’ll have a nice second act to his career. I could very much see him being a Tony Gonzalez type, a veteran presence who knows how to get open and work the open zones of a defense. But, I think his years of being an elite, Top 3 tight end in this league are numbered (and I think that number is one you can count on one hand). For me, I think you let him walk. I think you thank him for his services, but you do NOT pay him whatever the market price will be for him in 2018 and beyond, and I think you go in another direction for your big red zone presence. Because, let’s face it, with all of 8 TDs combined in his two seasons here, it’s pretty fucking obvious the Seahawks STILL haven’t figured out how to get him the ball in the endzone. So, why chase good money after bad? Keep tight end the fringe offensive weapon it’s supposed to be, and look to Luke Willson, or some other young guy, to get those 30-40 catches per season. Frankly, I’d rather have another Zach Miller type anyway, with the way this team struggles in pass protection.
Which brings us to Kam Chancellor. I’ve been on the Extend Kam train for a while now, and I still think we can get a deal done – a la with Marshawn Lynch’s final contract in Seattle – where he gets the money he deserves, while the Seahawks get the cap security they want. After all, let’s face it, the Seahawks don’t want to go throwing around a ton of guarantees for a guy who hasn’t had a fully healthy season since 2013! If that’s what he’s expecting, or if he’s still got a sour taste in his mouth from his holdout, then maybe he just wants to get out of Seattle and finish out his career elsewhere, which would be a shame. For a guy who’s been as critical, as inspirational, as fun to watch, I’d really hate for this relationship to end poorly. And, for the record, I do think he has some good years left in him. I’d LOVE to see him retire as a Seahawk and one day go into our Ring of Honor, and who knows? Maybe he’s already done enough to get in there. But, he’s a unique talent, and I’d hate to see him come back in another team’s uniform and start murdering our guys.
All in all, a lot of intrigue for this 2017 season. Not just because of this being another year in the closing Championship Window for these Seattle Seahawks, but in how this team transitions from one Championship Window to (hopefully) the next. Who will be the biggest stars and key components of the 2018 season and beyond? Will guys like Clark, Prosise, McDowell, and Griffin be the next studs who deserve huge, bank-breaking second contracts? And, who among those studs we have now will deserve even huger, bank-breakinger third contracts? 2017 will go a long way in parsing that out; it should be fun to watch.