I’m Perfectly Okay With The Seahawks Not Trading For Anyone

There was a lot of news around the NFL yesterday, as some pretty prominent names switched teams.  The Rams got more pass rush help (as if they needed more) in Dante Fowler.  Demaryius Thomas will now disappoint for the Texans instead of the Broncos.  Golden Tate looks to contend for another Super Bowl, this time with the Eagles.  The Packers are apparently sold on their secondary being good-enough, as they gave away a still-productive Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to the Redskins.

And, I’m sure there are others I’m forgetting, but I don’t care all that much because it doesn’t involve the Seahawks.  All the Seahawks did yesterday was waive Brandon Marshall, who wasn’t really playing a whole lot as it is (and when he did play, he was dropping balls left and right).

I pointed out yesterday (on Twitter) that I didn’t really want the Seahawks to trade for anyone, and someone responded that the Seahawks need Bruce Irvin.  I can see why someone would say that.  Obviously, the Seahawks are well aware of his abilities.  The Raiders are in full-on tank mode, shipping off veterans as they collect high draft picks.  And, what have we been talking about all year as the Seahawks’ most pressing need?  Pass rush!  So, yeah, Bruce Irvin makes a lot of sense.

But, does he?  I honestly haven’t paid him much mind since he went to the Raiders.  What I know from his Seahawks days is that he was drafted to be our LEO defensive end.  He got 8 sacks as a rookie, which is still the most sacks he’s gotten in a season.  By 2015 – his last year in Seattle – Irvin was converted to a SAM linebacker.  Like I said, I don’t know what he’s been up to in Oakland, but if he’s still a SAM, I’ve got news for you:  so is Barkevious Mingo.  Mychal Kendricks can also play that position, and he’s set to return to the Seahawks from his suspension later this season, in week 14.

Okay, so maybe we could’ve just played Irvin at defensive end.  I suppose that’s possible.  He’s still pretty under-sized at 250 pounds, so that hurts us in run defense.  Also, he has yet to really develop into a dominant pass rusher.  As I mentioned, his season high in sacks is still 8.  He’s had 18 total sacks in the last 2.5 seasons with the Raiders, which honestly isn’t all that impressive.  He has 3 sacks in 7 games this year, and I think he’s dealing with nagging injury issues.  Regardless, he’s not exactly filling up the stat sheet with his production.

We know Frank Clark is better than Irvin.  I would argue Dion Jordan is better than Irvin when he’s healthy.  I also like the upside of both Jacob Martin and Rasheem Green and would prefer to see both of those guys gain experience through the second half of this season over someone like Irvin, who has a clear and defined ceiling (which, again, isn’t all that impressive).

Finally, there’s the matter of his contract.  He’s set to earn whatever $8 million is pro-rated over the rest of the season.  He’d be owed $9.25 million for 2019 if we opted to keep him, which isn’t a ton of money, but is probably money we can use to acquire better players in the offseason.  We could cut him after this year without a cap hit, at which point we’d be trading for a half-year rental.  How much would you be willing to give up for something like that?  For me, it wouldn’t be anything over a 6th round pick.  Is that something the Raiders would accept?  I highly doubt it.  See, they too can cut him after this year with no cap hit.  Odds are, if we wanted to bring Irvin back next year, we could sign him in the offseason for a lot less than $9 million, based on his NFL production across 7 seasons.

I’d rather the Seahawks just hang onto our draft picks, all things considered.

Most of all, I’m still a believer that the Seahawks aren’t a championship contender in 2018.  Now, given the way they’ve played the last few weeks, the Seahawks are certainly a lot better than I expected – and a lot closer to being a championship contender than I ever thought possible – but we’re still at least a year or two away from truly contending.  So, save that money to make big splashes in free agency next year, and save those draft picks to continue filling in the rest of the roster with young, hungry talent.  We’re not a Bruce Irvin (or, really, anyone else who would’ve been legitimately available in trade) away from making it back to the Super Bowl this year, so better not to panic and stay the course.

Things are still looking good!  The future looks bright!  Let’s just enjoy the ride as it’s been constructed.

Not Winners & Losers Of The Seahawks’ Game In Detroit

The Seahawks went into Detroit and did their thing.  The Lions scored an early TD to go up 7, but Seattle took over from there, ultimately winning 28-14.  Things could’ve gotten hairy there towards the end – especially after a bullshit pass-interference call that put the Lions in the red zone with a chance to bring the game to within 1 score with time left to get the ball back – but Justin Coleman jumped a route to snag an interception.  And Michael Dickson ran what was supposed to be a safety out of the back of the endzone 9 yards for an unlikely first down to salt the game away.  To the premise!

What I’m Geeked Out About After Seven Games

It’s like deciding who my best child is.  Or my favorite Halloween candy!  Twix?  Kit Kat?  Snickers?  Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups?  Mounds?  Skittles?  The red/pink Starburst only?  Reese’s Fast Break?  Whatchamacallit?  Do they even have that one in Fun Size?  Milky Way?  Peanut M&M’s?  I LOVE ALL MY BABIES AND NOW I ALSO HAVE DIABETES!

Look, I’m just gonna be selfish here.  As you’ll no doubt read about later this week – because you know you love reading about me and my fantasy team troubles – I was able to pick up Chris Carson in a week where Ezekiel Elliott was on a BYE, and he single-handedly won me a fantasy football game.  You’ll see who I was gonna pick up if I didn’t get Carson and suffice it to say it was a 20-point swing in an 11-point win.

Carson ran for 105 yards on 25 carries, as he was this team’s unquestioned #1 running back.  More importantly, he scored a touchdown and was in on most goalline and red zone plays.  This is huge, not just for my fantasy team.  Mike Davis is a serviceable and perfectly fine #2 running back.  If the Seahawks needed to start him next week, I’d be comfortable with him getting 20 carries.  He definitely also strikes me as a guy who gets better as the game goes along (and therefore requires a number of touches before he starts to get going).  Chris Carson is just a BEAST tho.  He’s faster than every other back on this team, he’s stronger than every other back on this team, he’s more elusive, he’s harder to bring down … you get the idea.  Make a list of all the attributes you want out of a running back, and he’s at the top of every one!

Not only that, but if you compared him to the rest of the #1 running backs around the league, and I would argue he compares VERY favorably!  He and everyone else are behind Todd Gurley by a comfortable margin, but in that second tier, I’d say Carson is right there … in raw ability and talent with the football.  Now, he still has to stay healthy and prove it over a longer sample size.  But, as for just the Eye Test?  He passes with flying colors.

Other Things That Caught My Eye (In A Good Way)

Give me Russell or give me death!  Do you want to see a football player’s stats?  14/17, 248 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 14.6 yards per attempt, 158.3 passer rating and 98.9 QBR.  In the leadup to this game, I talked about how he needed to have an efficient game, and that while they don’t give up a ton of yards, the Lions are among the worst teams in opponent’s passer rating.  Lo and behold, Wilson had a PERFECT passer rating!

How about that Ed Dickson?  I never thought I’d say we missed him, and if Dissly hadn’t gone down for the year, I might’ve even argued to cut Dickson before he returned from the PUP list.  But, he was back this week, and he hauled in a couple of VERY impressive catches.  One for 42 yards (on a play-action on third & short where the Lions totally bought into a run and left him wide open) and one for a contested touchdown in the back of the endzone.  I mean, I couldn’t even tell you what he did in a blocking capacity, but his first game in a Seahawks uniform is already my favorite over every other game Jimmy Graham ever had here!  Ed Dickson is such an upgrade it’s not even funny!

David Moore had 4 for 97 and a TD, Lockett had 2 for 34 and a TD, Baldwin had 2 for 26, even Vannett had a nifty catch for 16 yards.

Defensively, there were a lot of stars.  Frank Clark with a sack and a fumble recovery.  Shamar Stephen with another sack.  Some good pressure from Dion Jordan and Jacob Martin and Jarran Reed.

It was also good to see K.J. Wright back, who had a nice game.

Let’s Talk About Competitions

It’s pretty clear who’s stepped up and who’s gone by the wayside.  No Penny in this one.  Not much out of Brandon Marshall or Jaron Brown.  I want to say Mingo’s playing time is greatly reduced with the return of Wright.  Naz Jones was once again a healthy scratch.

Also interesting:  George Fant’s conversion to 4th string tight end.  Or, shit, is he 3rd string at this point?  He was on the field a ton as a de-facto 6th offensive lineman, but he was also lined up out wide seemingly just as much as he was on the line!  He’s even running routes out there a little bit!  I can’t imagine he has great hands, but what if he did?  What if Wilson actually threw him the ball?  Wouldn’t that be wild?

Other Things That Caught My Eye (In A Bad Way)

Not a lot, to be honest.  Tedric Thompson had a couple shoddy plays, but also forced a fumble on that kickoff.  I didn’t like seeing Bradley McDougald leave the game with what appeared to be an injury, but I guess he was just sick so that’s okay.  He might be the most important player on this defense at this point, with no Earl, and with the way he’s been playing at a super-high level this year.  The dropoff from him to Delano Hill is pretty steep, so never leave us Bradley!

There still isn’t a ton of pass rush to write home about, but there’s some, and with the way our back-end is playing, “some” might be “just enough”.

The gauntlet rolls on with a game against the Chargers.  6 of our last 9 games are at home, so giddyup 12’s!

The Huskies Lost To Cal And Somehow Still Have A Chance To Make The Rose Bowl

It’s Win Out Or Bust.  That’s what we’re looking at right now.  And, if I were a betting man, I’d put all my money on Bust.

I didn’t watch a single second of that game on Saturday.  I spent half the day at a friend’s house playing a board game called Terraforming Mars, which was fun and complicated and probably not something you want to be hammered for when you’re first learning how to play.  After that, we rented the movie Mandy on demand.  Those things probably aren’t in everyone’s wheelhouse, but they’re squarely in the middle of mine.  Even if you hate board games and insane Nicolas Cage movies where he’s on a kill-crazy rampage for the last hour, they’d both be preferable than what the Huskies were offering over the weekend.

I did follow along on Twitter, so I had a pretty good idea of what was going on.  The Huskies scored on their first drive of the game and then did jack shit after that.  The drives went:

  • Interception
  • Punt
  • Punt
  • Downs
  • Punt

At that point, the Huskies pulled Jake Browning for Jake Haener and I thought, “Here we go.”  Now, as I said before, I didn’t watch a lick of this game (I DVR’d it, but once I knew we lost, I went home and immediately deleted it), so I couldn’t tell you how the offense looked.  But, I think I can understand.  Given what was still at stake, my first choice would’ve been to let Browning stay in there and try to work through whatever it was he was working through.

However, my second choice would’ve been – if you’re going to pull Browning for Haener – just let Haener finish the job!

Now, obviously hindsight is 20/20, and you see what happened:  Haener’s first drive resulted in a pick-six, to allow Cal to go up 12-7 (they missed the 2-point conversion).  So, that was a disaster, and if they’d let Browning play the entire game, my hunch is the Huskies would’ve won that game.  There were still a lot of variables left to play out, and for all I know Browning would’ve done the same thing and threw a pick-six of his own, but that’s just how I feel.  I think the coaching staff uncharacteristically freaked out and made a poor decision and it cost us the game.

At which point, Coach Pete should’ve just owned it.  He let Haener start the next drive, which resulted in a punt, and after that Browning was back in the game.  I have another hunch that’s probably wrong, but I’m gonna tell it to you anyway:  I think if we would’ve left Haener in there, he would’ve eventually calmed down and driven the Huskies down the field on our final possession to score the game-winning touchdown.

I wish I had whatever Infinity Stone that allows you to turn back time so I could witness all of these different theories in practice, but that’s neither here nor there.

In the world we’re all living in, the end result is that the Huskies lost.  We’re out of the Top 25 rankings (which we absolutely deserve) and I don’t know what to think.

This week, we host Stanford at 6pm on the Pac-12 Network.  It’s our punishment for being two worthless teams who lost games they should’ve won.  The Cougs did the impossible by going down to Stanford and beating them 41-38, so now THEY’RE in the driver’s seat.  But, Washington still has shotgun.

It starts with somehow finding a way to bounce back and beating Stanford this weekend.  Then, we get two weeks to prepare for a home game against the Beavs.  After we destroy them, we have to somehow go into Pullman and rip the hearts out of the chests of every Coug fan in the world.

I’m not saying we CAN’T do it, but it sure seems like a longshot.  It’s fortunate for us that the Ducks lost again over the weekend to make all this possible, but losing to Cal definitely makes me start to think our shit stinks a little bit more than it did earlier this season.  My confidence is at a 4-year low for this program.  I can’t help but feel rattled that these last two years have been complete and total disappointments and I’m starting to worry about my longterm outlook on this Jake Browning era.

A little success is a funny thing.  It doesn’t scratch the itch you think it’s going to.  Rather, it just makes you hungrier and hungrier for more and more success.  Sports are weird.

To Seahawks Or Not To Seahawks, That Is The Question

Since Russell Wilson came into the league, the Seahawks are 4-2 coming out of the BYE week.  Does that mean anything?  No it does not.

The two post-BYE losses happened in 2012 and 2015, exactly 3 years apart.  It’s been 3 years since our last post-BYE defeat, ergo we’re due for another one in 2018.  Does that mean anything?  No it does not.

The Seahawks are as healthy as they’re ever going to be the rest of the year; now that DOES mean something.  K.J. Wright is practicing again, Ed Dickson is ready to come off the PUP list, Rasheem Green is out there mixing it up.  Doug Baldwin had an extra week to rest his knees.  Our offensive linemen had an extra week to rest their everything.  Russell Wilson’s hammy (or whatever) is another week fresher.  And, everyone else who’s dealing with nagging whathaveyou’s, I’m sure, has enjoyed the break.  Hell, even C.J. Prosise is probably … nah, let’s not go THAT far.

I don’t know if there’s necessarily ever a “perfect” time for a team to hit its BYE week, but this one was as good as it’s gonna get for this particular team in this particular year.  Now, we hit the road to play the Detroit Lions, in an early 10am start after they beat up on the Dolphins in Miami the week prior.

By all accounts, I think the Seahawks are the better of the two teams.  At worst, these two teams are dead even, which is what Vegas appears to think.  The Lions are favored by 3 points, which is generally the figure granted to a team playing at home.  That’s not the ONLY reason why I think the Lions will win on Sunday, but it’s up there.

In reviewing the respective schedules, it looks like the Lions have better-looking victories (Patriots, Packers, at Dolphins); while the Seahawks beat a mediocre Cowboys team at home, a bad Cardinals team on the road, and a God awful Raiders team in London.  I guess we can all hang our hats on a close home defeat to the Rams, but that’s not really much comfort to me.

You can look at these two teams and see a clear advantage for both offenses.  The Seahawks want to ground and pound; the Lions’ defense has been among the worst in the league in defending the run.  They did just trade for Damon Harrison, who is a tremendous big body in the middle that should shore up that weakness, but can one guy really make that much of a difference?  I guess we’ll see.  I still like our O-Line an awful lot, and as long as those guys stay healthy, we should be able to open up some holes for Carson & Co.

The Lions’ offense, meanwhile, has traditionally been a more professional version of the Air Raid.  Matthew Stafford just airing it out left and right, winning and losing on his powerful right arm.  But, this year, with the introduction of rookie phenom Kerryon Johnson, they’re MUCH more balanced.  I feel like Matt Patricia’s influence as their new head coach has a lot to say about how the offense is run this year.  He’s seen what it takes to win, and for as good as Brady has been in his career, the Patriots have always had balance (especially late in the season, when the weather turns bad).  The Seahawks’ defense is better than we all had any right to expect, but it’s been susceptible to the run game at times.  Compound that with a lack of a pass rush, and the quick-strike ability of them to still kill you through the air, I think if anything this game is going to be high scoring.  The over/under is 49.5, so officially put me in for the OVER.

What needs to happen for the Seahawks to prevail is we’re going to have to avoid allowing too many big plays.  That’s sort of our specialty, so I wouldn’t expect it to be a problem, but if anyone will be able to fit the football into some tight windows down field, it’s Stafford.  He’s that good and that reckless.  Ideally, the Seahawks will take advantage of those times where he tries to bite off more than he can chew, and hopefully we’ll see a couple take-aways.

More than anything, the Seahawks are going to need to be efficient passing the ball.  The way I see this game going might be a little different than everyone else.  We’ve seen the Seahawks – over their last 4 games – really dominate with the run and see excellent results.  But, I don’t think it’s going to be that easy this time around.  I think there will be SOME rushing, but we won’t overwhelm them.  Where we can make some hay is through the air.  The Lions are pretty stingy with their passing yards allowed, but they’re among the worst in the league as far as passer rating is concerned.  That’s where the Seahawks can shine.  Stick with the rushing gameplan, by all means, but know when to strike through the air.  There will be opportunities to hit the Lions with deep balls, and we’re going to have to connect on them to make this thing happen.

All of that being said, do I see a Seahawks victory on Sunday?  I honestly don’t.  It’s more of a gut feeling than anything else.

We have these weird, flukey games every season in the early going.  Last year, in week 3, we lost a shootout to the Titans of all teams.  The year before that, we had that wonky loss down in New Orleans.  In 2015, we had that overtime defeat to the Bengals where we blew a late lead.  In 2014, it was a week 2 loss in 100+ degree heat in San Diego.  And, who can forget the shootout loss in Indy in 2013 to Andrew Luck?  Don’t get me started on our 2012 loss to the very same Lions in Detroit.  The score was 28-24, and I see something awfully similar happening this time around.

What do all of those losses have in common?  They were all against pretty good-to-great quarterbacks, they were all on the road in the first half of their respective seasons, and they were all games where our offense ostensibly did enough to win the game, but the defense just didn’t have what it took to put those teams away.  Sometimes, the Seahawks take control early and gag it away late; sometimes the other team goes up big and we mount a furious comeback that falls just short.  I could see either one of those things happening on Sunday.

What I can’t see is a Seahawks victory.  I hope I’m wrong.  Because the Seahawks REALLY need this one if we want to contend for a playoff spot.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 8

Last week, I just got hosed.  There’s no way around it.  Oh sure, I hosed myself in many respects – I could’ve made a harder push at picking up Indy’s defense, or drafted a better group of quarterbacks – but I pretty much put out the best team I could’ve and I got beat.

Sloane N Steady ended up starting Nick Chubb over Isaiah Crowell, which in the end made all the difference (8 points, when he won 143.95 – 141.44), but that shouldn’t have even mattered.  He was saddled with a big, fat 0 out of Melvin Gordon – whose 6:30am London start time was too early for my opponent to realize he was out with injury – and I honestly thought I had the week in the bag.  I was over a 75% favorite heading INTO the Sunday afternoon games!  Hell, I just needed 34 combined points out of Andy Dalton and Tyreek Hill in the Sunday Night Game (he had no one else going at this point).  While Hill did his job, Dalton only got me 9.4, and that was that.  Andy Fucking Dalton, worthless pile of shit, playing in a Primetime game, sucked too many dicks and I lost yet another week of fantasy football I should’ve won.

I’m now 3-4, in 5th place in the league, and I’m still 3rd overall in points scored (while down to 6th in points against).  It’s just unbelievable.

At this point, I don’t know what else I have to do.  Making a bunch of panic moves feels like a mistake.  Honestly, it’s not any one thing that’s setting me back.  Sure, I’m pretty shaky at quarterback, but I’m never going to find anyone better without giving up a king’s ransom of talent at other positions, and quite frankly I just don’t have enough depth on my bench to make up the difference.  Every week, it’s something else.  As much as I despise that loathesome ginger-headed quarterback, getting only 3 points out of the Bears’ defense is the biggest culprit.  Had I known they were going to be THAT bad against the Pats – and that my game was destined to be this close against me – I sure as shit would’ve risked losing Calvin Ridley to pick up a better streaming defense last week.

My life goes from bad to worse this week, as I’m without Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette – two of my three keepers from last season.  Fournette is obviously a worthless pile of shit (whose team just traded for Carlos Hyde, to make my life even more miserable, as his value with the Jags continues to plummet); Elliott, on the other hand, is on a BYE, which leaves me with 1 healthy running back in the 500 year old Adrian Peterson.

The best available RB was Latavius Murray, who might get the nod over Dalvin Cook, but is also set to face the Saints, who are one of the best run defenses in football (so, I didn’t put in a claim for him and someone else snapped him up).  The other usual suspects are/were out there – Javorius Allen, Wendell Smallwood, Jalen Richard (who also got claimed on waivers), Frank Gore – but none of them are all that enticing.

Someone did, however, drop Chris Carson, so I used my 5-waiver priority to pick him up.  I won’t know if I get him until tomorrow, so consider that a teaser for next week’s recap!

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz @ JAX
  • QB2 – Andy Dalton vs. TB
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill vs. DEN
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen vs. NO
  • RB1 – TBD
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson @ NYG
  • TE – Jordan Reed @ NYG
  • FLEX – Robert Woods vs. GB
  • K – Matt Prater vs. SEA
  • DEF – Chicago vs. NYJ

My bench is:  Carr, Elliott (BYE), Ridley (BYE), Fournette (IR), Golladay, Olsen, Devonta Freeman (to be waived for a healthy replacement RB).

I’m feeling super dumb about holding two tight ends on my roster, when both of them are as mediocre as can be.  When I think about all the other guys I could’ve had – ON WAIVERS, not to mention in the draft – it drives me crazy.  The last thing I wanted to do this year was waste two roster spots on the tight end position, yet here I am.  I started Reed over Olsen this week because the Ravens’ defense is pretty stout, so it seems unlikely the Panthers are going to move the ball well.  I don’t have much hope for Reed either, but he feels like a slightly better proposition.

This week, my opponent is The Lance Petemans.  He’s won our league every other year for the last I don’t even know how many years, which makes him both one of the better fantasy football owners in our league, and also probably the luckiest.

He’s always been smart about his keepers, and this year was no different.  He’s had Brady and Gurley the last two seasons, with Jimmy Garoppolo as his third, who was looking like yet another monster fantasy producer until he hit the IR.  The rest of his team is, as you’d expect, pretty solid up and down the lineup … except for that #2 QB spot.  To wit:

  • QB1 – Tom Brady @ BUF
  • QB2 – C.J. Beathard @ AZ
  • WR1 – A.J. Green vs. TB
  • WR2 – Alshon Jeffery @ JAX
  • RB1 – Todd Gurley vs. GB
  • RB2 – Tarik Cohen vs. NYJ
  • TE – Eric Ebron @ OAK
  • FLEX – John Brown @ CAR
  • K – Dan Bailey vs. NO
  • DEF – New England @ BUF

His bench is:  Sony Michel, Ryan Tannehill, Will Fuller V, Dion Lewis, L.A. Chargers, Jimmy G (IR).

So, for starters, what did I do to deserve back-to-back opponents having their respective quarterbacks go up against Buffalo & Arizona?  You can pencil those guys in for 60 points RIGHT NOW!  And that might be conservative!  Really, he’s got matchup darlings up and down his lineup.  Green against Tampa’s grotesque defense; Jeffery against the suddenly-mediocre Jaguars defense (while also poaching points from Wentz with every pass he catches); Gurley against the Packers’ nothing defense; Ebron against the Raiders’ less-than-nothing defense.  And the shit-cherry on top of the shit-sundae:  the Patriots defense against the Bills, who hand out pick-sixes like they’re full candy bars on Halloween.

If The Lance Petemans don’t score over 220 points, I’ll be shocked.  I’ve got a pretty good team, but even with an active and healthy Zeke and Fournette, I don’t think I’d have a shot in Hell.  You could probably add up my entire roster – including all bench guys – and I don’t think I’d come close to beating his starting lineup.

The Huskies Want No Part Of A 3-Way Or 4-Way Tie For The Pac-12 North

There’s a plausible scenario out there where Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Wazzu all have 2 conference losses at season’s end.  Of course, we’re well aware of all head-to-head tie-breaker scenarios.  Oregon’s got a leg up on us in that regard, which is why their loss in Pullman last week was so huge, as that got them to their second conference defeat.  We have a home game against Stanford and go on the road for the Apple Cup.  The easiest path for Washington to make the Pac-12 Championship Game is to win out; that leaves us with 1 loss and everyone else with at least 2.  Simple math.

But, here’s how all those teams end up with 2 losses:

  1. Oregon would have to win out.  They host UCLA and ASU and go on the road to face Arizona and Oregon State.  They should be favored to win all those games.  They still have a tough road test at Utah that could eliminate them from contention, but it’s totally reasonable for Oregon – if they play like they’re capable of playing – to finish with 2 conference losses.
  2. Stanford would have to beat Wazzu this week and lose in Washington next week.  They finish home against the Beavers, and at Cal and UCLA; odds are they win all of those.  That – combined with their loss to Utah earlier – would leave them with 2 conference losses.
  3. Washington State would lose at Stanford and beat the Huskies in the Apple Cup.  There are other opportunities for them to Coug up their season – particularly a road game against Colorado – but again, if they play like they’re capable of playing, it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
  4. Washington would beat Stanford at home, win the other games they should be favored in, and lose the Apple Cup on the road.  At Cal this week could be a sneaky trap game for us; we still have a BYE week left, so the only other team we play is Oregon State, who should be dominated.

If all that happens, all four teams would be 7-2.  Ever wondered how the tiebreaker scenario shakes out for multiple teams with the same conference record?

Well, it starts out by comparing your record against the other teams you’re tied with (so, for Washington’s case, our record against Stanford, Oregon, and Wazzu).  In the scenario I outlined above, the Huskies and Ducks would each be 1-2 against those teams; while the Cougs and Stanford would be 2-1.  That would knock off Washington and Oregon, and the next tiebreaker would be head-to-head record between the two remaining teams, which means it would be Stanford over Wazzu.  Nobody wants that.

That makes this weekend’s game between the Cougs and Cardinal that much more important.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Wazzu goes on the road and wins a tough game against an elite opponent just a week after the hullabaloo that was last Saturday’s win over the Ducks.  It just seems impossibly crazy.  But, if they pull it off, and Washington is able to take care of business at home next week, that effectively eliminates Stanford from contention.

Which would ultimately set it up for the Apple Cup to decide who plays for the Pac-12 North (and, in my opinion, who plays for the Rose Bowl, because I don’t think there’s a chance in Hell that the Pac-12 South champion wins it all).

In an ideal world, I’d rather have it come down to just the Washington schools, because I like our chances of beating the Cougs more than I like the notion of Stanford slipping up against one of their final three useless opponents.

Something else to keep in mind is if there’s a 3-way tie for first.  Let’s say the Ducks or Cardinal slip up in one of their games against the non-Washington schools.  For instance:

  • If Stanford, Washington, and Wazzu all finish with 2 conference losses (Stanford beats Wazzu, loses to Washington; Wazzu beats Washington); we’d all be 1-1 against each other, with the same record against intra-divisional opponents.  The subsequent tie-breaker is record against the next-best team in the division, which would likely be Oregon.  That knocks Washington out.
  • If Oregon, Washington, and Wazzu all finish with 2 conference losses (Oregon beat Washington, lost to Wazzu; Wazzu beats Washington & loses to someone else), Washington gets knocked out because we would’ve lost to both the Ducks & Cougs.
  • If Stanford, Oregon, and Washington all finish with 2 conference losses (Oregon wins out; Stanford beats Wazzu & loses to Washington; Washington loses the Apple Cup; and Wazzu cuogs it in another game to get their 3rd conference loss), that would leave us all 1-1 against one another, and tied in intra-divisional games.  Next up would be record against the next-best team (Wazzu), which Stanford would’ve won in this scenario.  That pits Oregon against Washington, and we already lost to them, so that knocks the Dawgs out.

The point is, there’s really no way the Huskies have any advantage in any multi-team tie-breakers.  Better for us to get this thing down to the two Washington schools and play for all the marbles on November 23rd.  In that case, I mean Hell, at least it wouldn’t be Stanford or Oregon getting the glory.

The 25th-Ranked Husky Men’s Basketball Team Is Going To Make The NCAA Tournament In 2019

All the cool sports shit in Seattle right now is happening at the University of Washington.

Last year, the Husky Men’s Basketball team won 20 games in the regular season, went 10-8 in conference play, lost in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament to the Oregon State Beavers, and went 1-1 in the NIT, ultimately losing to Boise State.  It was a better first season for new head coach Mike Hopkins than anyone had any right to expect considering the circumstances, and ultimately it’s a nice jumping-off point for a team that should finally get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011.

First of all, it’s crazy how long it’s been.  It’ll be 8 years this March; that is far FAR too long between appearances.  Even if the Huskies literally have no chance of ever winning the national championship – because we’re not one of those elite teams and we never will be – it’s still nice to be tricked once in a while into believing.  It beats a constant stream of mediocrity and underperforming.

This year should be fun, even if the Pac-12 is as down as it always is.  We’ve got a road game against Auburn, a neutral-court game against Texas A&M, we continue our series against Gonzaga by playing them in their zoo of an arena, and for good measure we face another ranked team in Virginia Tech in a neutral location.  If nothing else, our strength of (non-conference) schedule looks to be one of the better ones in all of college basketball.  We’ll see how it all shakes out by the end of the season, but right now you can’t say the Huskies are loaded with cupcakes and only cupcakes!

I would also argue that it takes a team this laden with veteran talent to handle a schedule like that.  It’s the perfect storm, really, because we’ve got 4 Seniors who figure to play significant minutes, on top of stud Sophomore Jaylen Nowell, all of whom are in their second year in Hop’s program.  I don’t think a team loaded with youngsters could withstand this schedule, not if you’re teaching a bunch of new kids a brand new scheme.

Barring a slew of injuries, this team – led by Nowell, Noah Dickerson, Matisse Thybulle, David Crisp, and Dominic Green – should have no trouble handling the pressure that comes with increased expectations.  All of those guys can score (in a variety of ways) and defend with the best of ’em.  On top of which, we’ve got a number of quality role players to jump in there.  Sam Timmins, Junior Center, had a lot of important minutes last year and should only be more comfortable with his job as a starter playing reserve duty.  Hameir Wright and Nahziah Carter both flashed as Freshmen last year and figure to see increased time and responsibilities.  Already we’re talking about a team that’s 8-deep, and we haven’t even gotten to the rest of the guys on this team.

The fact of the matter is, I don’t know how reasonable it is to expect too much from the rest.  The roster does look like it’s in pretty good shape, both for this year and going forward.  There aren’t any glaring holes or weaknesses.  We’re 3-4 deep at big man, with Dickerson, Timmins, and Wright leading the way.  We’ve also got incoming Freshman Bryan Penn-Johnson who’s got a college-ready body right now; he’ll likely get his feet wet depending on matchups and foul issues with the other guys ahead of him on the depth chart.  We’ve got a team full of ‘tweeners with long arms, a team full of shooters; you could say we’re a little thin at point guard, but I’d argue any number of guys from Nowell to Thybulle to maybe even Green or Carter could handle the rock in a pinch.  The other Freshman I’d be looking at is Elijah Hardy, a 6’2 point guard who could very well push Crisp for minutes.

As always, I think this team goes as far as Crisp takes them.  The good news is, I thought he started to make some strides last year in transitioning from a shoot-first deep threat to a guy more comfortable driving in the paint and looking to make plays.  I thought his game against Nevada the other day was telling.  The Huskies went on the road and beat a consensus Top 10 team in a meaningless exhibition game, but we didn’t treat it as such.  Noah Dickerson sat out with an injury, but the other main guys all played over 30 minutes.  Sure, Crisp was 2 for 6 from long range (not a great percentage, but honestly an improvement over what he’s averaged so far in his college career), but he was 6 for 9 from inside the arc, which hopefully means he’s not just looking to jack crazy bombs all year long.

I’ll be most interested in seeing how the rotations are set up and how minutes are divided.  Assuming everyone’s healthy, you figure Dickerson, Thybulle, Nowell, and Crisp will all be starters and play starters’ minutes.  Timmins figures to be a starting center, with Wright coming in off the bench and besting him in total minutes.  You figure Green will be the 6th man – with occasional spot starts, depending on matchups – to give us a scoring boost off the bench.  And, Carter and the other youngsters will be wild cards.  These things are always fluid over the course of a long season, but assuming everything goes according to plan, it’s pretty easy to see how this team shakes out.

The big variable is how the Pac-12 looks.  It’s weird seeing a pre-season Top 25 rankings without Arizona listed.  I can’t imagine they’ll ever be bad, but they are young and all the legal allegations swirling around the program can’t be good for their focus.  UCLA and Oregon are both ranked, which feels right.  Figure the Bruins will be disappointing and the Ducks will be pretty solid.  Nevertheless, not having a huge Top 10 program in the Pac-12 would appear to be a benefit to a team like Washington, whose non-conference schedule figures to do the heavy lifting.  Being as veteran as we are, I wouldn’t anticipate this team needs a lot of time to gel, so we should come out of the gate pretty strong and ready to upset some of these better teams.

We play all the Pac-12 North teams twice each, so if Oregon remains good, that’s two more opportunities for important wins.  We also play the mountain schools twice; while never really all that impressive, they’re usually decent enough that if they rip off a bunch of wins, they could always sneak into the Top 25.  We play the Arizona schools on the road and the L.A. schools at home (in back-to-back weeks, no less) so take that for what it’s worth.

I’ll be massively upset and disappointed if the Huskies don’t make the NCAA Tournament this year.  Mike Hopkins is getting more out of these players than Romar ever did.  While that’s not necessarily enough to be concerned about losing Hop to bigger and better programs, it’s enough to put him on notice around the rest of college basketball.  The real test of how good of a coach he is will come after all these Seniors graduate and he’s starting from scratch with his own guys.  Luckily, we’re still a year away from that headache.  For now, we get to enjoy the fun new feeling of being relevant in Men’s Basketball again.  I missed this.

The Huskies Climbed Back Into Rose Bowl Contention

I love Seahawks BYE weeks, if for no other reason than my beloved Dawgs get to enjoy the Monday spot on my blog.

It was a nice, if sloppy, bounce-back win for the Huskies, as they took care of business against a clearly-inferior opponent.  There were still enough cracks in our own team – on both sides of the ball – to be concerned going forward.  But, this is obviously a win we needed to have, and it keeps hope alive for at least one more week.

My day started out in Seattle bright and early.  There wasn’t any tailgating this week, so I met up at a buddy’s apartment for some pre-game IPA’s before we hit up the light rail to the stadium.  I’m just gonna say this about that:  whoever designed the University of Washington station did SUCH a pisspoor job of designing it.  They need, easily, like 4 more escalator bays; even if they’re not always open and running every day of the week, at least for gamedays.  They didn’t account for the crowds that would 1) show up for Husky football games and 2) use the light rail to get there.  But, it’s a fucking mess.  They can’t let too many people use the too-few escalators at once, otherwise they’ll break down.  So, there are HUGE lines going both up (pre-game) and down (post-game).  And, for whatever reason, they won’t open up the stairwells for fit people with functioning legs to walk up, because they don’t have enough security?  What the shit is that?  Do they think the stairwells are just going to be a kill-crazy free-for-all?  Are Seattleites running a Purge just in the UW lightrail station stairwells?  And, particularly for post-game, would it kill them to put additional cars on these trains to get us out of there in a timely fashion?  As it is, they’re doing the best they can, but they weren’t exactly supplied with all the resources they needed to make this a seamless transition.  You’re hoping that the people will use these modes of transportation to get to places … well, it needs to be a better experience if you want us to CONTINUE using these trains!

Anyway, after that first world problem was somehow conquered, my friends and I were in need of alcohol to soothe our jangled nerves.  Luckily, Husky Stadium now sells alcohol, albeit in certain specific locations.  The Zone is dead to me now, as you apparently need to buy a pass just to get into the area where you buy more food and alcohol.  Any way they can nickel and dime the fans, I suppose.  So, we went to this little beer garden inside the stadium; I guess it’s called Off Leash?  Some kind of play on the whole dawg theme?  Like, dogs take off their leashes and get plastered?

Long story short, we missed most of the first quarter (I wouldn’t say we were missing it, Bob).  The Huskies got the ball first, punted, and Colorado promptly went down and scored, making it 7-0 and making it look easy.  The Huskies finally got their shit together, and had a 14-13 lead heading into halftime.

The defense totally took over the game in the second half, as Colorado didn’t score the rest of the game.  But, the offense struggled to really put them away until late in the contest, finally prevailing 27-13.  Nevertheless, we failed to cover the 17-point spread, and the offense didn’t look particularly great.

Jake Browning didn’t have a whole lot going in this one.  Part of the problem was drops, but also he was wildly off-target on a few as well.  In spite of Gaskin being given the day off (I assume to rest his injured shoulder), the running game did their job.  We ran for 201 yards on a whopping 40 carries, with three different backs sharing the load.

Defensively, we tackled much better today than we have in weeks.  We still didn’t get much in the way of pressure, and are in desperate need for edge rushers to step up in 2018 (it needs to be a point of emphasis for next year as well).  The usual suspects stood out:  BBK led the team in tackles with 15, Greg Gaines was a force in the middle, our secondary made a number of sick plays as we held them to 144 yards passing on 17/28 with a TD and a pick.  But, I wanted to point out number 95, who I noticed flashed on a number of plays in the middle, Levi Onwuzurike, a Sophomore out of Texas.  He had 4 tackles (2 for loss) and our lone sack of the game, in what looked like pretty limited duty.  Gaines is a Senior this year and will be going to the League, so it’s nice to see our interior is in good hands.  I look forward to Levi having a bigger workload next year and REALLY making his presence felt.  When he becomes The Man, don’t forget who pointed it out first!  (it probably was someone who’s much smarter than me and knows a lot more about the Huskies, but I’m also a person!).

Our Saturday got better and better.  Post-game, we went back to my buddy’s apartment to eat some pizza and drink some beer and watch the Cougs take on the Ducks.  And yes, drunken Coug fan with the awesome sign, the Ducks DO Quack Under Pressure!

Thanks to the Huskies blowing it last week, Washington State got to host ESPN Gameday for the first time ever.  And, it looked like the party to end all parties.

The Cougs jumped out to a 27-0 lead at halftime, which only set up the Ultimate Couging Scenario.  Oregon proceeded to mount a comeback in the second half we all knew was coming.  They managed to get it to 27-20 with just under 7 minutes to go in the game; plenty of time to finish the Cougening.  Wazzu started at their own 25 and got down to Oregon’s 34 when it was 4th & 6.  On the previous drive, the Cougs got down to Oregon’s 42 with a 4th & 3 and opted to punt, so I was sure they were going to do something similarly stupid.  At this point (of the 4th & 6), there was just under 5 minutes to go in the game, and thankfully they went for it.  Why punt on 4th & 3 but go for it later on 4th & 6?  Well, according to the announcers, it’s easier for an Air Raid offense to get 8 yards than it is to get 3, so maybe we WEREN’T listening to the dumbest men on the planet call this game?  I would’ve said it was shoddy game management on the part of Mike Leach, but what do I know?

Anyway, thankfully, the Cougs converted that drive into a touchdown and won 34-20.  So, now the Huskies are back atop the Pac-12 North with a 4-1 record.  WSU and Stanford are right behind us at 3-1 (with Oregon at 2-2 – SUCK IT DUCKS!).  We host Stanford in a couple weeks and we go to Pullman for the Apple Cup at the end of the season.  In short, we control our own destiny.

A road game against Cal is on the horizon this Saturday.  The Golden Bears are not there yet, so this is a game we should handily win.  Cal’s only claim to fame is an early victory over BYU, back when we thought BYU was actually worth a damn.  Cal is coming off a drubbing of OSU, so they should be well-rested and confident.

The Cougs overtook the Huskies in the AP rankings, which was a possibility that had occurred to me on Saturday, but wasn’t one I took very seriously.  We’re still ahead of them in the Coaches Poll, but it obviously doesn’t matter, since no team from the Pac-12 will be representing the conference in the playoffs.  Anytime college football wants to expand the playoffs to 8 teams (with each major conference getting a guaranteed slot) will be okay with me.

Until then, eyes on the prize:  Rose Bowl or Bust.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 7

At some point heading into last weekend, I dropped Alfred Morris for Bilal Powell.  Morris was an absolute last-ditch option for me (I assumed the 49ers would get KILLED by Green Bay and throw it constantly, not necessarily that they wouldn’t play him whatsoever).  I had Bilal Powell in my lineup for a hot minute – as a potential hedge against the iffy proposition of starting a semi-injured Adrian Peterson – but then before gametime Sunday morning, I saw that Isaiah Crowell was active, and I reverted back to having AP get the nod.  Even though the Jets were at home, and in a favorable-appearing matchup with the Colts, I still liked the chances of AP over any sort of Jets timeshare.

As soon as I knew I wasn’t going to need Powell on my team, I swapped him out and picked up Detroit’s kicker (who was on BYE), who will be my guy going forward.  Yes, Robbie Gould had a fantastic game against the Packers, but I’m not counting on the 49ers being this high scoring going forward; Detroit’s offense is always going to be good as long as Stafford is around.

All in all, these moves had very little to do with my 184.95 to 142.25 drubbing of DelBocaVistaPhase2.  Truth be told, I had this week in the bag as soon as he traded away James Conner (28.90) and kept Dak Prescott (35.35) on his bench.  It’s hard to blame him for the trade, because who knows how long Conner is going to be Pittsburgh’s starting RB; and I know I won’t fault him for benching Dak, who was going up against the Jags (a defense I liked an awful lot in that matchup in Big D).  Those are the What If’s you have to live with as a fantasy owner; it’s why this game is a total mindfuck sometimes.

My ass was pulled out of the fire by Hill (39.20), Wentz (33.30), Thielen (29.30) and Dalton (23.45).  I got a shameful amount from my Bears defense, and Calvin Ridley’s day was cut short by an ankle injury.  Ridley will be on my bench going forward, as Robert Woods is too prolific to keep off my starting lineup any longer.  5 straight weeks of 14+ points!

I’m now 3-3, holding steady in 5th place in the league.  I have the 3rd most points scored, and I’m down to the 3rd most points against, so we’re slowly but surely starting to even out.

No waiver claims for me this week, as I’m not on the Ito Smith train just yet.  Gonna need to see him REALLY take over that Devonta Freeman role before I believe it (someone did pick up Ito Smith as a free agent and actually waived Freeman even though we have an IR spot at our disposal, which is something to think about).  That puts me up to 6th in the league’s waiver priority going forward, which isn’t great, but it’s better than nothing.

I was eyeballing David Njoku – who’s got a juicy matchup against the worst defense in football against tight ends – but Yahoo was dicking around with my IR designation on Fournette, as there’s apparently a quote/unquote chance that he plays this week.  Apparently, if you’re not ruled out completely, you’ve still got to be rostered on the bench.  Since I didn’t really want to give up on Calvin Ridley just yet – on top of the fact that I have 2 tight ends on my roster already – I decided to let Njoku sit out there.  He was promptly picked up Thursday morning, so we’ll see if I’m regretting this come next week.

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz vs. CAR
  • QB2 – Andy Dalton @ KC
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill vs. CIN
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen @ NYJ
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott @ WAS
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson vs. DAL
  • TE – Greg Olsen @ PHI
  • FLEX – Robert Woods @ SF
  • K – Matt Prater @ MIA
  • DEF – Chicago vs. NE

My bench is:  Carr (BYE), Ridley, Fournette, Golladay, Reed.

Watch this be the week that Jordan Reed goes off, but I don’t care anymore.  God dammit is he sucking my will to live!  I know Philly is pretty amazing against the TE position, but they also haven’t played very many elite tight ends so far this year, and it’s not like they’re perfect.  I’ll take my chances with the upside of Olsen (and hope he doesn’t re-injure his foot mid-game) over the steady mediocrity of Reed.

As I said before, Woods is in my lineup to stay.  Most likely.  I might mix n’ match him and Golladay depending on who they’re going up against, but Ridley is gonna be riding in the bitch seat for a while (his days on King Flippy Nips are probably numbered, if I need to make any emergency roster moves).

Up next, I’ve got a date with Sloane N Steady, who I’m catching on a pretty good week, as one of his main guys is Aaron Rodgers, who will be on a BYE.

Sloane N Steady has arguably had even worse luck than King Flippy Nips this year!  Last week, he suffered the same fate I did a couple weeks prior, in having the second-most points for the week in a losing effort.  But, his loss was by only 2.9 points.  He’s also had another loss earlier this season by a mere 0.45 points, so to say he’s due for an unlikely win is an understatement.  Here’s who he’s got:

  • QB1 – Andrew Luck vs. BUF
  • QB2 – Case Keenum @ AZ
  • WR1 – Josh Gordon @ CHI
  • WR2 – Devin Funchess @ PHI
  • RB1 – Melvin Gordon vs. TEN
  • RB2 – Isaiah Crowell vs. MIN
  • TE – Trey Burton vs. NE
  • FLEX – Allen Robinson vs. NE
  • K – Adam Vinatieri vs. BUF
  • DEF – Houston @ JAX

His bench is:  Rodgers (BYE), Dalvin Cook, Lamar Miller, Nick Chubb, T.Y. Hilton.

All things considered, I probably couldn’t be playing him in a better week.  No A-Rod, he’s got a bunch of guys banged up, the Browns haven’t recognized that Chubb deserves to be getting the lion’s share of the carries in that backfield (I have him on another team and it’s a constant source of frustration, as I absolutely REFUSE to drop him from my team; it’s a matter of principle at this point).

Sloane N Steady is 1-5 and in last place in the league (he’s 5th in points scored, and has the 2nd-most points against), but it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if he makes a second half run.  With Rodgers and Luck dealing, with Gordon, Cook, and Chubb all eventually healthy and starting, with solid points out of his receivers and a good defense and kicker, he could definitely make some noise if he goes on a winning streak.

As for this week, however, it would take quite an upset.  We’ll see.  That wouldn’t shock me in the slightest either; my fantasy teams tend to play down to their competition, so if I’m back on here bitching about a loss next week, don’t say I didn’t warn myself.

The Seahawks Control So Much Of Their Own Destiny

After six weeks, it feels pretty premature to start talking about the playoffs, but a blogger’s insignificant work is never done.

We don’t know much about how this season is going to shake out, but we know a little bit.  We know that at 3-3, the Seahawks could probably win the rest of their games and still not beat the Rams for the division (for the record, the Seahawks absolutely WON’T win the rest of their games – they do have one more against those very Rams, after all – so argue with me on that statement at your own discretion, but it’s a cow’s opinion any way you slice it).  We know that, at 4-1, the Saints have the inside track on the NFC South.  And, we know that the Redskins and Bears are leading in their respective divisions, but no one expects that to be the case at year’s end.

We also know that there are a ton of teams right around Seattle’s 3-3, all still very much in contention.  The aforementioned Redskins and Bears, as well as the Panthers, are all 3-2 right now.  The Packers and Vikings are 3-2-1.  The Eagles and Cowboys are also 3-3.  The Bucs and Lions are 2-3 and the Falcons are 2-4.  Apologies to the Cards, 49ers, and Giants, but let’s stick with the top 13 teams in the NFC for now.

The Seahawks are 2-2 against the NFC so far.  That’s a tough loss to the Bears, no doubt about it, as I feel like they’re eventually going to cede the division lead and be yet another wild card contender.  That means we’re going to need them to either somehow win that division, or fall to at least a game below us.  Our victory over the Cowboys, however, could be HUGE, if they manage to remain somewhat good the rest of the way.

Going forward, the Seahawks play a bunch of wild card contenders.  Everyone else in the NFC North, for instance.  We go to Detroit coming out of the BYE; that’s a very winnable game.  We host the Packers on a Thursday Night; that should be interesting.  And, we host the Vikings on a Monday Night, which is generally our best night from a historical perspective.  Winning all three of those games would be amazing.

The other really big one is the game in Carolina on Thanksgiving weekend.  I feel like every single one of these teams will be in it for a wild card spot, so really those four games are the very most important ones we’ve got.  Winning all four of those, plus taking care of business against the 49ers and Cardinals, gets us to 10 wins and I’ll say this:  if we win all of those games, I GUARANTEE the Seahawks will make the playoffs.

Fuck the Rams and fuck the remaining AFC teams.  Just beat the

  • Lions
  • Packers
  • Panthers
  • 49ers
  • Vikings
  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

and we’re golden.  Any loss to the bottom-feeders needs to be made up for by an upset win against the Rams or the AFC.  A loss to one of those wild card contenders – depending on what happens the rest of the way – could mean we need TWO wins against the Rams or AFC.

Something to think about during this carefree BYE week.  Every game counts the same in the standings, but not every game is equal in importance.