Go ahead and check out my last gambling post to see where I went right and horribly, horribly wrong (thanks a lot, Green Bay). As I noted before, I’m going to Vegas in T-Minus two weeks, so I’m ramping up my gambling thoughts in the hopes of winning lots of monies.
I’m gonna go ahead and walk my way through the games, to see if maybe I can coalesce my thoughts into something resembling a coherent plan.
Right off the bat, I love Green Bay -6.5 at the Giants. I think that’s going to be a total walk-over and would gladly put a good chunk of change on the line as is. There’s also ample teaser opportunity (bringing the line down to GB -0.5, aka they just have to win by any score) that I’m hoping to pair with something a little later.
Speaking of teasers, I’m seeing three games with even 10-point lines, and I’m wondering which of the three teams screws me here: Carolina at home over Washington, Kansas City at home over Oakland, and Philly on the road at Miami. A three-team tease makes all of those games pick ’ems, so I ask again: who screws me here? The best of the underdogs would be Oakland – so that’s the obvious choice – but the Chiefs are coming off of a BYE, they should be fully healthy, and I just can’t see them blowing this. Of course, the more I think about it, the more I recall Kansas City’s defense is the absolute worst, but I’m sticking by them anyway. The worst team among the favorites might actually be Philly, and I think that’s the one that scares me the most. Their defense has picked it up in a big way, so there’s always the opportunity for them to pick off Fitzpatrick a bunch of times. But, I’m never one to shy away from a bad team.
So, here’s my 3-team tease: Carolina down to a pick ’em, Kansas City down to a pick ’em, and Miami to +20. Lock it in!
Next up: my Tampa Bay obsession! When I wrote about the Bucs last time, it looked like Vegas had finally corrected things with the over/unders here, boosting it to 54. The bettors apparently took my advice to finally go with the under, and the line eventually ended up moving down to around 51 points, which is only a 3-point difference, but looks oddly comforting when faced with the prospect of betting the over. Had I been in Vegas and seen the line at 51, I certainly would’ve bet the over and won yet again (that’s at least four weeks in a row their game has gone over). This time, at Jacksonville, the Bucs are favored by 1.5 points, so give me that line all day. Separately, the over/under is only 47, so let’s run it back with the OVER! Make that my lock of the week; easiest money on the board this week.
Also, go ahead and parlay the 1.5 with the over and thank me later.
There are a ton of home underdogs this week, including all of the afternoon games and the Sunday Night game. The Rams are favored at Arizona by 3 points, and while I like the Rams (and am tempted to bet them as is), what I like even more is the over/under of 47.5. Give me the OVER. Arizona’s defense is pretty crappy – this feels like a Get Right game for the Rams’ beleaguered offense – and the Cards have proven (particularly with their games against the 49ers) that they can score against top defenses. So, the over feels pretty lock-ish.
The Chargers are also favored by 3 at Denver. This is probably a stay-away for me, but if anything I kinda like the Broncos. Welcome back to Underdog Watch! And, not for nothing, but Cleveland is favored by 2 at Pittsburgh. There’s a big revenge-game factor flowing throughout this one, and call me crazy, but I don’t buy this Browns resurgence. So, here’s what we’re gonna do: let’s tease the Broncos to +9 and the Steelers to +8. Couple of quality defenses, at home, in divisional matchups; I like these both to at least stay close. I could also be tempted into parlaying both of these teams to win on the money line, but let’s keep that to a smallish amount.
Last week, my Irrational Homer Pick totally and completely backfired. The Packers were just a TERRIBLE pick on my part. So, I’m flip-flopping! The Ravens are at home and they’re favored by 5.5 points over the 49ers. The Seahawks, obviously, need the 49ers to lose. So, were I in Vegas right now, I’d be putting my money on the 49ers to cover. I’d also be putting a little on the 49ers to win outright! Either I lose my money and the Seahawks benefit, or I win both bets and feel shitty collecting my winnings.
And, before I forget, here’s what I’m looking at for my Packers tease: bring Green Bay down to -0.5, and pair that with the Bengals! Andy Dalton is back, the Jets are on the road, this feels like the perfect opportunity to put money on another home underdog. The Jets are favored by 3, and nothing about that feels right. So, let’s bring the Bengals up to +9 and have ourselves a day!
Here’s the part of the post I call Steven’s Stay-Aways. I’m staying away from Indy -2.5 at home against Tennessee (gun to my head, I say Indy covers); I’m staying away from New England -3 at Houston (gun to my head, give me the Pats). Everything else is in play this week, which is fun!
In doing another sweep of the over/unders, I like KC/Oakland over 51, I like Baltimore/SF over 46, and I kinda like GB/Giants over 45 (but probably not enough to put much down on it).
Finally, give me ALL the Seahawks -3 at home on Monday Night against the Vikings. I think it’ll be a rout.