Monthly Archives: February 2023

The Seahawks Suck At Hiring Defensive Coordinators

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As Sean Desai gets poached by the Eagles to be their defensive coordinator – following one season as our … Associate Head Coach & Defensive Assistant (emphasis on the secondary) – I can’t help but think we’re keeping the wrong guy.

Clint Hurtt has been a punching bag for me ever since he was promoted from Underwhelming Defensive Line Coach to Underwhelming Defensive Coordinator, following the firing of Ken Norton Jr. Why hire some guy to install Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme when you could’ve just hired Vic Fucking Fangio (hired by the Dolphins this year, after taking 2022 off)? It doesn’t seem like we did any sort of DC search whatsoever last year. At the very least, we could’ve made Desai our DC and made Hurtt our Associate Head Coach or whatever.

It’s going to be pretty easy to compare the three guys – Desai, Hurtt, and Fangio – as they all embark on their jobs. Desai has the advantage of coaching for a Super Bowl team that was largely defined by their excellent defense. Fangio is going to a squad with a lot of talent, that figures to bolster that talent (considering they’re pretty well set on offense, assuming they opt to keep Tua) this offseason. Hurtt has one small advantage in that he’s been in the same organization for a number of years, with this being his second year in charge. The experience and familiarity should hopefully do him well.

I would also argue that Hurtt has the easiest job of the three. It’s been lean times for the Seahawks defense in recent years; all he has to do is build it up to be semi-competent and he’ll have done his job. If he exceeds expectations, then he should be on the fast track to head coaching opportunities. Whereas Desai is being given the keys of a defense that’s already great; there’s nowhere to go but down! And Fangio has the misfortune of being in a conference with a lot of elite offensive talent to go up against. He’s also getting up there in age and at some point you have to wonder when he’s going to shuffle off into retirement.

That being said, I have the least faith in Hurtt. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if the Seahawks continue to be inept. At which point, I’ll be the one “I Told You So”-ing on this blog until my fingers fall off.

What was the one thing that worked on the 2022 Seahawks defense? Where was the one area that exceeded expectations (while the others flopped miserably)? It was the secondary. Where Desai was firmly in charge. I can only dream of what might’ve been for the rest of the defense. It’s not that I expect the secondary to suddenly take a step back; I’m just lamenting the loss of someone who seems so damned good at his job (in favor of keeping someone who, I guess, gives good interview?).

But, this has been a long string of terrible defensive coordinators, with precious few bright spots.

Ken Norton was a bust. Kris Richard oversaw the dismantling of a once-great unit. Dan Quinn was the lone amazing hire by Pete Carroll in his tenure. Even Gus Bradley, I don’t know if he was good, so much as the organization just so happened to draft and sign a lot of future Hall of Famers. Bradley sure as shit hasn’t done a damn thing in any of his other jobs, as head coach or DC.

This isn’t just a Pete Carroll problem, though. Ray Rhodes was the only good hire of the Mike Holmgren tenure (though the tragic loss of Fritz Shurmur in 1999 – before he could even coach a game for us – was painfully unfortunate). And, none of the guys pre-Holmgren were anything special; even Tom Catlin – the DC under Chuck Knox – was never able to parlay that into anything outside of Seattle (even taking a demotion to linebackers coach once Knox left the organization).

It’s not that the Seahawks have always been terrible on defense outside of the Dan Quinn era; we’ve had plenty of talented players come through the organization since its inception. But, I would argue we’ve largely been underwhelming. Sometimes that’s due to bad luck, or injuries, or randomness. Sometimes it’s due to incompetence at the top, or a lack of skilled defenders. But, it sucks when you see the organization making a mistake in the moment.

I want the Seahawks to be good. I’ll often bend over backwards to talk myself into this team being better than it actually is. But, I can’t do anything with Clint Hurtt. Just like I couldn’t do anything with Ken Norton. We just have to fucking endure it. We have to watch mediocre defense for another 2-4 years before another change will inevitably have to be made. Meanwhile, we’re all going to wish the Seahawks had opted to choose Desai, because even if the Eagles take a slight step back on defense, they’re still going to be leaps and bounds better than the Seahawks for the foreseeable future.

It Would Be Weird If Bobby Wagner Returned To The Seahawks

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I don’t totally get what just happened between the Rams and Bobby Wagner. It was my understanding that they were on the hook for much more money than what he ended up getting. I don’t know how you go from a 5 year $50 million deal with $20 million in guarantees, but only end up paying a little over $7 million for one season.

Anyway, he’s once again a free agent. And, just as he was following his final year here in Seattle, he’s a free agent coming off of a season where he was 2nd team All Pro. I don’t know if that speaks to his level of play, or the lack of impact middle linebackers outside of the NFC West, but either way, it feels like the Rams had a bargain on their hands, and squandered one of his last great years in the NFL.

But, maybe I have to stop thinking about Bobby Wagner in those terms. Ray Lewis played until he was 37 years old. And he was still playing at an All Pro level at age 35. I’m always reluctant to compare guys to the all time greats – and regardless of what kind of person he was off the field, Ray Lewis was the best middle linebacker of the last 30 years – but Bobby Wagner might actually be in that conversation. He’ll be 33 this year. If he continues to take care of himself, and finds himself in the right situation, there’s no reason why he couldn’t play at a high level for another 3-4 years.

Which brings us to the topic of conversation for today. The Seahawks have a history with Bobby Wagner. The Seahawks also have a need to improve the linebacker spot. It’s under debate how important this need is, largely hinging on how serious the injury to Jordyn Brooks was to close out our 2022 season. Will he be back in time for the start of the 2023 season? How effective will he be when he does return? Is this one of those things where he’s not back to normal until 2024, but struggles through this year and wastes everyone’s time with his limited abilities?

The debate part comes in because the NFL defense is an ecosystem. For everything to work as it’s supposed to, all the pieces need to be doing their jobs in harmony with one another. I think a lot of people would argue that the interior of the defensive line was a major culprit in our inability to stop anyone with any sort of regularity. With improved defensive tackle play, they would free up the linebackers to be more impactful. But, since our first line of defense was continuously bulldozed, opposing offenses were able to swallow up our linebackers.

That being said, I don’t think anyone would be happy with another season of Cody Barton, Starting Linebacker for the Seahawks. But, his isn’t really the same position as what Bobby Wagner plays. Indeed, as we transition to a 3-4 defense, it’s fair to wonder why Bobby would be interested in returning at all. It seems drastically different to what he’s used to.

But, let’s disgard that for a moment. Let’s say he’s a savvy veteran who fits into any system. It would still be weird if he returned to the Seahawks.

You can’t deny Wagner had some hurt feelings when the Seahawks released him, so right off the bat it seems like his return would be a non-starter. Then again, maybe you consider his 2022 season the big Fuck You to his former team, proving he’s still got what it takes to be elite in this league.

The market dictated his value last year, and it will continue to show that if he wants to continue playing, it’s going to be at a reduced rate compared to what he would’ve gotten had the Seahawks not cut him in the first place. If he could be had for the right price, I don’t think anyone would say no. But, by all accounts, Wagner wants an opportunity to win a Super Bowl. Maybe beggars can’t be choosers in this regard. I don’t know how the Super Bowl contenders are fixed at middle linebacker at the moment, but if I were Wagner, I don’t know if I would wait around too long after free agency opens in mid-March. If he wants to maximize his dollars, he’ll probably want to jump at what the first tier offers are. The longer he waits, the more teams are going to look elsewhere for their solutions at his position. If he has to wait closer to training camp – or even into the regular season – you can bet he’ll be settling for whatever minimum deal some needy team has available within their cap.

As for the Seahawks, I would wonder if that’s how they’d want to spend their free agent dollars. How many times have we been burned by L.O.B. era players ending their careers here due to premature injury? Also, is that the position we want to use our money on, when we’re probably in need of drafting for our linebacking future?

I know, I know, teams can always find a way to make these things work under the cap. But, we’re looking at putting down a significant chunk of change on Geno Smith. We need to maximize the value of lesser positions like linebacker. Sure, we could always sign Bobby, still draft his replacement, and have that guy learn at his feet. But, we did that already with Brooks. I’d much rather draft someone and play him immediately. Take advantage of a quality linebacker on his rookie deal. Get four full years of value out of him.

Every outside free agent signing that doesn’t address our most pressing need – the defensive line – is going to be a signing that annoys the shit out of me. Even if Bobby goes on to play at a high level for the next 3-4 years, I’d rather look back on his career here with fondness, rather than see how it comes crumbling to a depressing end. Let’s leave the past in the past, and move forward with a group that will hopefully make a whole new set of fond memories.

The Seahawks Are Lucky To Be Rid Of Russell Wilson

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I occasionally return to writing about Russell Wilson, because he’s a truly fascinating figure in Seattle sports history. “How the mighty have fallen” is something that comes immediately to mind.

There was an article released by The Athletic today outlining his miserable first year in Denver. It also touched on the impetus for him being traded to the Broncos in the first place: he allegedly went to Seahawks ownership and called for them to fire Pete Carroll and John Schneider. Wilson has since denied those claims on Twitter – an intriguing move, to be sure, since I don’t know him to be so reactionary when negative news about him is released – but the Seahawks have stuck to their usual stance of not commenting whatsoever.

I don’t think anyone is really inclined to believe anything that Russell Wilson says at this point. There was another bombshell recently released that got into Wilson’s charitable foundation, and how they may or may not be spending their money. Turns out extravagantly wealthy people aren’t always all that inclined to give away their money, and that they may inflate what they’ve purported to donate. The sad thing is that he’s just like any other multi-millionaire in the world.

While he might not have gone directly to Jody Allen (or whoever’s running the show with the Seahawks), I would venture to guess probably his agent passed along both of their wishes. It’s particularly believable given the additional nugget of information released by The Athletic: that Wilson’s preferred head coaching replacement for Pete Carroll was Sean Payton. We all know Wilson’s affinity for Drew Brees, and the fact that the Saints were on his previous list of teams he’d be willing to be traded to (back when Payton was still their coach).

There’s an alternate universe where Russell Wilson spends his entire career with the Seahawks. It’s fascinating to contemplate what would’ve happened if the organization sided with the player over the coach and general manager. What kind of dystopian hellscape would THAT look like?

For starters, we wouldn’t have had Denver’s draft picks last year. No Charles Cross at left tackle. Who takes that spot? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe we would’ve re-signed Duane Brown for one more year. We wouldn’t have had Boye Mafe either (he didn’t do a ton as a rookie), and there’s a legitimate question as to whether or not we would’ve used our other second round pick on Kenneth Walker. I mean, really, without John Schneider running the draft, it’s highly unlikely we’d have ANY of the guys we got. We’re talking an entirely different, unknown crop of rookies and free agent moves, all likely catering to Wilson’s whims.

Also, I would strongly doubt the Seahawks could’ve managed to hire Sean Payton in this kind of situation. Why would he want to come here? As we’ve seen the last two years, he clearly had his pick of the litter when it came to head coaching jobs. Why would he put himself into a situation where he’d have to be subservient to his quarterback? It’s also a situation that has him living in Seattle (probably not his ideal destination), working for an organization that might be going through an ownership change as soon as 2024. That sounds like a headache I’m sure he would’ve rather avoided.

But, if you believe Wilson had that kind of pull this time last year – that he could convince Payton to come here – then I suppose you can look at the 2023 Broncos as sort of a barometer or the kind of success we might’ve enjoyed in 2022. Except, the 2023 Broncos have a drastically superior roster of talent outside of the quarterback spot, compared to what the Seahawks had last season.

I’m trying to imagine what the Seahawks would’ve looked like this past year, with Wilson behind the center, running Payton’s offense with our guys (minus Kenneth Walker, of course), saddled with that defense (that surely would’ve performed worse than they actually did, thanks to the loss of Carroll’s guiding influence). It seems like it would’ve been an absolute nightmare, made all the worse by the fact that WE would be the ones overpaying for Wilson’s diminishing services for the next however many years.

Now, if you take Sean Payton out of that equation, and saddle us with a Nathaniel Hackett (or whoever we could’ve managed to convince to coach here), I think we’re talking about a team that’s even WORSE than what the 2022 Broncos actually were.

I believe that Russell Wilson believes that Pete Carroll and John Schneider were holding him back in his quest to win MVPs and Super Bowls. I also can’t entirely dismiss that line of thinking. It’s easy to sit here and dunk on Wilson. Age is catching up to him, his size limits his ability to throw over the intermediate middle, and hubris is preventing him from ceding control or reining in his preferred style of play (meaning he no longer runs with the football, and opts to take deep shots over checkdowns that might actually net more yards). So, I fully understand the instinct to call Wilson crazy. The only person holding Russell Wilson back is Russell Wilson.

But, I can’t just unsee what he did in the second half of 2015.

It’s the outlier to end all outliers. In the final seven games of the regular season, the Seahawks went 6-1. In those six victories, Wilson’s lowest passer rating was 123.7 (his average rating over that span was 132.8). He had a 71% completion percentage. He threw for 1,906 yards, with an absolutely RIDICULOUS 24:1 touchdown to interception ratio. It’s literally the best stretch of football I’ve ever seen by a quarterback, and it was unlike literally any other season he’s played in the NFL. He threw from the pocket, he threw with precision, on time, to all areas of the field (including the intermediate middle). I can’t even fathom how brilliant and efficient the Seahawks’ offense was, at a time when our rushing attack wasn’t there to prop us up. It was all on the arm of Russell Wilson. And, I’m afraid it’s warped everyone’s thinking – including his own – ever since.

The sad part is the fact that he reverted right back to his usual style of play when we hit the playoffs that season (the last of our L.O.B. Championship Window). It really seemed like we’d turned a page, and the offense was ready to ascend that year. Instead, we barely got by the Vikings in the wild card round, before taking a HUGE shit early deficit in the first half of the divisional round against Carolina, before our furious comeback fell seven points short in the end.

From then on, though, it felt like there was no limit to Wilson’s abilities. Sure, he had the running, and he had the play-action deep balls, but now he had this precision timing offense down. THAT was supposed to be the key to how he’d age gracefully in this league. And when we never saw him do it again, we all assumed it was because Pete Carroll was holding back the offense. And/or because John Schneider wasn’t giving Wilson the guys he needed around him to make it work.

Part of that is true. Carroll did rein in the offense. Except, it was only AFTER Wilson made too many horrendous throws and turned the ball over an uncharacteristic amount. And, of course, how can we forget all the times John Schneider did, in fact, sign free agents that were Wilson-approved? The Greg Olsen tenure here is a boil on my ass that will never go away.

This takes us back to Russell Wilson being the only person holding Russell Wilson back. But, he still did what he did in that 2015 season. And it’s fair to wonder what his career might’ve looked like if he’d had Sean Payton’s offense from the get go.

It’s also fair to wonder if it’s too little, too late. He’ll be 35 years old in November. And he’s clearly not aging the way Tom Brady aged into his 35th year.

I’m just glad he’s not our problem anymore.

Some Quasi-Interesting Seahawks News

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As O.J. Simpson’s latest tweet indicates, this isn’t the best time of year for sports fans. Same goes for local sports bloggers, who tend to struggle to find things to write about.

Phil Haynes signed a 1-year extension for $4 million (could be worth up to $5 million). Does that float your boat? This could be a precursor to Gabe Jackson getting cut for salary cap savings of $6.5 million. Does that mean Haynes will be our starting right guard in 2023 (after spending much of 2022 in a time-share with Jackson)? Maybe. Or, maybe $4 million is just the going rate for a quality backup guard. I still believe the team will look to the draft for this spot, and make it an open competition heading into training camp. But, Haynes has a lot of talent, so we could certainly do a lot worse.

Nick Bellore is coming back. I don’t know how much he’s getting, but he’s clearly a valuable special teams player, even if he is a punchline at linebacker.

Former position coach Dave Canales (our quarterbacks coach in 2022) was recently hired by the Bucs to be their offensive coordinator. He’s an intriguing choice. I don’t see that he’s called plays above the high school level, if ever. I understand the Seahawks’ offense did some good things this year, and took some steps forward with Russell Wilson out of here, but it wasn’t so elite that the NFL should start poaching our guys. Is this what Rams fans felt like when they saw Shane Waldron of all people get hired to be our OC? Maybe Canales is just that good of an interviewer.

I think the most interesting news to come out recently was some contract guarantees that were vested.

For instance, D.K. Metcalf’s 2023 base salary became fully guaranteed. $2.22 million isn’t a whole helluva lot, but he also got a $12 million option bonus (to be spread out over the final three years of his deal). Which means that now he’s got two bonuses being spread out over the life of the contract, $7.5 million per year from his signing, and now $4 million from this second bonus. His cap hit for this year is still very reasonable (under $14 million), but it starts to balloon in 2024. That isn’t super important, though, because we likely were never getting rid of him before 2025 anyway, if we get rid of him at all. I would expect – if he’s still playing at a high level – we’ll look to extend him prior to 2025. He’s not going anywhere.

I don’t know if anyone was thinking that the Seahawks might free some money by getting rid of Will Dissly, but rest assured, he’ll be back. His 2023 base salary of $5.64 million is now fully guaranteed. That was never likely, though. He stayed healthy and was moderately productive last year. With his blocking ability, the team was never going to cut him.

The bigger story is the fact that both Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams saw some guarantees pass by the deadline. Diggs’ base salary of just under $13.5 million is now locked in. There was talk of him taking a step back in 2022, but apparently the organization disagrees with that sentiment. Either that, or they’re banking on a bounce-back. It’ll be interesting to see if he makes it to the end of his deal, which runs through 2024, but also sees his base salary reduced to just under $10.5 million.

I think we were all resigned to our fate that Adams would return at least through 2023, given how his contract was structured. But, it became even more clear once a portion of his base salary became guaranteed. If the Seahawks were going to consider him a sunk cost and cut & run, every little bit of cap savings would’ve helped, even if it was only $2.56 million.

That being said, short of turning into the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year this season, I can’t envision a scenario where he comes back for 2024. Which is why – even with Ryan Neal likely to return – I have to imagine the Seahawks look to draft another safety this year. Possibly as high as the second round, but definitely somewhere in the middle, and with an eye towards taking over sooner rather than later.

Was this post worth the effort? I have no idea. Maybe there will be news that comes out today that’ll be more interesting to write about tomorrow.

In Defense Of Tanking In Sports

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Other than Cheating, I would say the concept of Tanking is the biggest taboo in sports. There’s certainly no honor in either, though unlike tanking, there’s a variety of definitions when it comes to cheating. If you hold someone in football and get away with it, technically you’ve just cheated. But, no one is going to walk up to the ref and ask to have a flag thrown on them. And, other than the guy being held – and the fans of that player’s team – no one is going to complain about it either. However, set up an elaborate video camera and trashcan banging system in baseball to steal signals from your opponent while alerting your own hitters, and you’re rightly vilified as the fucking scumbag Astros that you are (Astros being synonymous with Cheaters, naturally).

I see a gray area when it comes to tanking, though. My worst nightmare is being a fan of a team that constantly finishes in the middle. Good enough to really squint and see some hope, but ultimately never a championship contender, yet never so abysmal as to get a top draft pick the following year. I get to say that because I’ve always been a fan of Seattle teams. If I were a fan of the Lions or Pirates or whoever continuously stinks in the NBA (I would’ve said the Kings, but from what I understand, they’re actually sorta okay this year), I’m sure I’d be reading this right now totally outraged. I get it. It can ALWAYS be worse.

Because, here’s the thing: tanking in the wrong hands gets you absolutely nowhere. Until this year, you could point to the Jacksonville Jaguars as a prime example. Even with their number one quarterback – and slew of other high draft picks all around that roster – shoddy coaching choices continued to hold them back (until they finally lucked into hiring Doug Pederson).

And the biggest problem with baseball is that Tanking has become a way of life for some of these small market teams. The Rays and A’s have figured out a sort of cheat code in their development and shrewd scouting of other teams’ prospects (who they acquire in trades for their own successful superstars who figure to be too expensive to retain), but by and large the lowest payroll teams need to get unsustainably lucky with their own prospects hitting at the same time, while taking advantage of signing under-the-radar free agents for pennies on the dollar (see the Kansas City Royals of 2014-2015, which was an oasis in a VAST deserted wasteland of seasons before and since). Tanking can provide a sense of hope, but if all you do is tank every single year, all hope is lost.

It’s especially galling in baseball because there’s so much money to be had. Yet, teams long ago discovered that you don’t really need to put in much effort on payroll to turn a profit year over year. You’ll get yours, and whatever you don’t earn, you’ll be handed thanks to a revenue-sharing system that seems quite antithetical to the American way of life. On top of that, every year that goes by, your franchise is worth more and more money. It’s the only certainty in life; not even death & taxes have it on the valuation of professional franchises in the top North American sports.

So, I understand why many people have no patience for baseball teams who tank. Or, really, any team, be it football, basketball, hockey, soccer, whathaveyou. We’re talking about billionaire owners, who’ve decided to be fucking cheapskates. Even though they do pretty well for themselves for all the limitations they’ve placed on themselves, I have zero respect for the Athletics, because all they do is hold the city of Oakland hostage in an attempt to get taxpayers to pay for a new stadium they could EASILY afford. And, if for whatever reason they can’t afford it, then they need to sell the fucking team to an owner (or a group or owners) who will actually try. Imagine what the A’s or Rays could do – with their talent evaluators and coaching throughout all levels of the organization – if they actually spent money.

But, if we take those teams out of the equation – those teams who prioritize winning below anything and everything else – I think tanking can be a good and healthy refresher for an organization. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not so naive as to think any team prioritizes winning above all else; these are billionaires, they’re always going to be about the money first. But, there are self-respecting owners who also want to put a good product on the field. Who want to play in a stadium they can be proud of. Who ideally DON’T want to completely alienate their fanbase. I’ll be honest, I don’t understand how A’s fans do it year-in and year-out. That organization would drive me absolutely bonkers, and make no mistake, they’ve been SIGNIFICANTLY more successful than the Mariners in my lifetime.

Getting back to my original point, though, sometimes teams get bogged down. They develop a plan and see it through and for one reason or another, the plan fails. It happens. You saddle yourself with bad contracts, old players, and you know you’re never going to get anywhere trying to fit that square peg in a round hole. See: the Mariners from 2014-2018. They had … some semblance of a plan, and they came close to making the playoffs, but for one reason or another, they just couldn’t put it all together. And they definitely weren’t going to vie for a World Series; at best, that group of veterans might’ve snuck in as a Wild Card, but likely no better. So, they tore it all down, acquired some prospects, rededicated themselves to a pitching-centric draft strategy, and now here we are. We made the ALDS in 2022, we have an elite superstar in Julio Rodriguez, we have a bona fide ace pitcher (with lots of quality arms below him), and we appear to be poised for a run of playoff appearances. While there are no guarantees in life, if everything breaks right, the Mariners have as good a chance as anyone to play for a World Series title as soon as this year. You can only say that about so many teams, even this early into Spring Training. I know we’re all 0-0 right now, but in reality, there’s always the Haves and Have Nots. The Mariners are in the Haves group, which is a rare and wonderful thing. And it never would’ve happened without a little tanking spree.

That having been said, obviously you don’t HAVE to tank to turn your fortunes around. But there’s a psychological component that’s beneficial to your fanbase. As I said up top, it can be frustrating to be mired in the middle. All too often, fans lose faith in their teams. They believe the organization has lost the thread. That they have no plan, and instead are just spinning their wheels. And, to all of our detriment, those organizations can get panicky. They see the writing on the wall – that a coach or a GM is on the hot seat – and make poor deals to try to jumpstart a turnaround. How many times have the Seahawks blundered in recent years, compounding mistakes by making even dumber moves? Until they finally did what had to be done and traded Russell Wilson. That immediately put us in a position to kick off a rebuild, even as we improbably succeeded with Wilson’s erstwhile backup. My lack of faith in that backup has no bearing on reality, where we’re one great draft away from potentially building a championship contender.

Which leads us down another tangent. Sometimes, when you have smart people running your organization, what looks like a tanking season turns out to be something much more special. Like the 2022 Seahawks. In those cases, you thank your lucky stars you’ve got people in charge who know more than everyone else.

For all the teams who don’t win a championship – all teams but one, every single season – keeping hope alive is the name of the game. For those teams not already in an open championship window, tanking is a vital tool. It shouldn’t be your everything, but in small doses – with a quality plan in place to see it through to the end – it can mean the world.

In that respect, I’ll always be in favor of tanking. Young, hotshot draft prospects are always going to be more exciting than over-the-hill, overpaid former all stars. Building from the ground up – and succeeding with your own homegrown guys – is the most satisfying experience for a sports fan. Oh sure, I’ll take a championship any way I can get it. But, it’s not about AH championship. It’s about many years of championship contention. It’s being the next dynasty. It’s winning now and forever until the end of time. And when the end comes, blowing it up and starting all over with a new crop of high draft picks!

The Bottom Third Of The Mariners’ Lineup Looks Absolutely Atrocious

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At some point, I’m going to hop on here and talk about all the ways this thing can fall apart for the Mariners. There’s a number of hitters who could easily take steps back for one reason or another, our starting pitching was unsustainably healthy last year, and our bullpen has been remarkably fortunate and could fall apart for no good reason whatsoever outside of sheer randomness.

Today’s not going to be that day. See, a lot of that is just me being overly worried. We finally broke back into the playoffs, and now it feels like we’re due for a setback. Expectations are through the roof, which is always when the Mariners let us down the most. You can set your watch to it. On paper, most experts agree this is a team that should once again contend for a wild card spot. So, you really have to dig deep to magnify the flaws on this roster to the point where we fall on our faces.

That being said, I don’t think it takes very much digging whatsoever to point out that the bottom three hitters projected to play regularly heading into April are going to drag this team down with them.

If we choose to look on the bright side, there should be six quality hitters in this lineup (eventually, I’ll write a separate post talking about all the flaws among everyone). You have to figure Julio and Raleigh are excellent young players; Ty France is solid when healthy; Suarez has his power and should benefit from less shifting; Teoscar Hernandez is an already-good player who figures to be hyper-motivated as he’s heading into his first stint with free agency; and Wong is a veteran bat who should be fine as long as he’s healthy.

Just because those are the six hitters I think will be the ones we don’t have to worry about, doesn’t mean I’m right. Any one of those guys could easily suck. Conversely, among the batters I’m about to trash, I think the odds are just as good that one of them surprises us in a positive way. But, for the sake of this post, I think the top six in our lineup is going to be fine, and it’s going to look something like this:

  1. Julio – CF (R)
  2. Wong – 2B (L)
  3. Hernandez – RF (R)
  4. France – 1B (R)
  5. Suarez – 3B (R)
  6. Raleigh – C (S)

Our three weakest spots in the lineup are going to be Short Stop, Left Field, and DH.

We kinda know what we’re going to get with J.P. Crawford at this point. He’s going to get on base a little over 1/3 of the time. That’s fine. He was one of the least shifted-against Mariners the last couple years, so I don’t think he’s going to get much of a boost from the rules changes. He’s streaky. With very little power. So, when his BABIP is good, his slash line will look good. When the balls he hits find gloves, he’s going to look like one of the worst hitters in the league. The only hope for him is that all his offseason work with Driveline has improved his approach at the plate. His elongated swing tends to get exposed by superior pitching, and if that hasn’t been corrected in any sort of meaningful way, it’s only going to lead to more strikeouts and weak contact. At least we don’t need him at the top of the order anymore. Getting to hide him down towards the bottom will take some pressure off, while at the same time give us some speed – if and when he does get on base – for our superior hitters at the top of the lineup.

The left field spot is well-worn territory at this point, but it bears repeating, since we’re banking a big chunk of our season’s hopes on the combination of A.J. Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. What needs to be said about Kelenic that hasn’t already been said? He’s young, and so far he’s been a terrible hitter. He could, obviously, blossom this year with reduced expectations, a spot at the bottom of the order, and the elimination of the shift that has so gobbled up many of his would-be hits. But, the Pollock piece of this remains under-complained about. He was abysmal last year! People have brushed that aside by saying he’s going to play primarily against lefties, but as I’ve said before, lefties only comprise about a quarter of the pitchers in baseball. He’s still going to get his share of at bats against righties, especially if Kelenic struggles (which, odds are he will). Not only that, but given how our bench is shaping up, we could see Pollock and Kelenic in the same lineup (with Pollock being a DH).

Let’s not beat around the bush here, though, because the DH has been a disaster for this team … pretty much since Edgar retired. I’ve already talked about how Dylan Moore is going to factor heavily into this team (cemented by the fact that he just signed a guaranteed contract to buy out his Arb years). Moore probably won’t DH a ton, but he’ll play in the field for guys getting rest days as the DH, so that makes him our de facto DH. I would also wager that Tom Murphy and/or Cal Raleigh will get their share of DH stints (when the other is starting at catcher), to infuse some additional power on occasion. We’ll see what Murphy has left in the tank after a few injury-plagued seasons. Then, there’s Haggerty, who was a fun story last year, but is coming off of an injury that happened towards the very end of our season. He’s also no guarantee to be effective the more the rest of the league gets a book on him. And, as I just wrote about, I don’t know who our 13th position player will be, but Tommy La Stella looks like the odds-on favorite, and he’s fucking garbage.

I don’t want to say that the season hinges on Jarred Kelenic starting to reach his full potential, but that could make all of our lives A LOT easier. There’s a massive black hole in the bottom third of our lineup that figures to be filled with – at best – Replacement Level hitters. But, if Kelenic were to pan out (which, officially I no longer believe will be the case), that could really take our team to new heights. All of a sudden, you’ve got seven quality bats in the lineup, with adequate production out of Crawford, and whatever you get from the DH slot from Moore, Murphy, et al. A competent Kelenic hitting somewhere around .250, hitting 20+ homers, could be all the difference between this team winning 86 games and 96 games. I know the math doesn’t work out from a WAR perspective, but not totally blowing it every time we get to the bottom of the order has a cumulative effect that – if everything else pans out the way we think it should – would make us quite formidable. You get no innings off with a lineup like that. Combined with our elite pitching, it could very well put us in line to compete for the division.

However, if Kelenic continues to let us down, and the rest of these guys can’t get out of their own way, it’s going to take everything we have just to remain in contention through the trade deadline. Where I’m assuming we’re going to need an impact bat, if we want to get back to the playoffs.

It’s just too bad we didn’t get that bat heading into the season, when all of this was blatantly obvious to anyone with eyes.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Are A Bunch Of Chickenshits

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I hate the fucking Big 10. Stupid fucking conference whose name doesn’t make any fucking sense because there’s way more than 10 teams in it now. Don’t get me wrong, I shit on the Pac-12 all the time for being an ineptly run organization/collective of schools who can’t get out of their own way. But, for the time being, I’m allowed to shit on the Pac-12. As a Washington Husky, it’s like being in an extremely dysfunctional family.

Other people, schools, and conferences don’t get to shit on the Pac-12 without drawing my ire, which is what Ohio State just did. They canceled their home & home series with the Washington Huskies recently. It had been on the books for just under a decade, set to finally take place in 2024 and 2025. Why? So the Buckeyes can add an 8th fucking home game to their schedule. They were willing to pay half a mil for the right to back out of the series at the last minute. Now, they’re free to schedule some cupcake game, while we’re left scrambling to fill a very significant void in our own schedule.

Fucking pansies. Too afraid to face an up-and-coming Washington team on the road. Don’t get me wrong, I get it. When you’re Ohio State, you don’t have to play anyone. Take care of business in your mediocre, overrated conference, beat up on Michigan, and you’re good to go. Why take any risks? No one else does. The SEC sure as shit doesn’t. USC and UCLA don’t. That’s why they’re fleeing to the Big 10, because they’re cowards who don’t have the fortitude to make it work in the conference they’ve called home for countless generations.

Here’s the thing: just because you don’t have to do something, doesn’t make you any less of a chickenshit for backing out of a challenge. You should strive to be better. Be better than the SEC. Be better than the L.A. schools jumping ship. Be a team and a school everyone aspires to be. You want to be the best? Beat the best. Don’t fucking tuck your tail between your legs as you add another meaningless Central Michigan game to your slate.

As for the Huskies, I can’t wait for another boring fucking BYU game to be added. Maybe Boise State YEARS after they were last relevant. Fuck Ohio State. Someone get them a binky and swaddle them in a cozy blanket.

Who Will Be The Mariners’ 13th Man?

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Are rosters still comprised of 26 players in Major League Baseball? Or are they cutting it back down to 25? I can’t really keep track of all these little details anymore. But, I do know there’s a limit on the number of pitchers you can carry, and that you have to have 13 position players at a minimum. Seems a LITTLE idiotic, but there’s so much to complain about when it comes to the rules of baseball, I’m not going to get bent out of shape about teams having an extra bench spot here and there.

As has been reported of late, the Mariners are pretty well set for the majority of their position player spots, becoming even more certain based on Taylor Trammell’s recent hamate bone injury that’s going to keep him out the entirety of Spring Training. He will almost certainly start the regular season down in Tacoma, giving the M’s one less guy to compete for that final active roster spot.

Catchers: Cal Raleigh, Tom Murphy.

Infield: Eugenio Suarez, J.P. Crawford, Kolten Wong, Ty France.

Outfield: Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, A.J. Pollock.

Platoon/Backups: Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty.

There’s 12 guys right there, pretty well set. Kelenic still has an option, so if he completely shits the bed in Spring Training, maybe he starts out in Tacoma, but I think that’s a very remote possibility. That leaves one other spot, and by my calculations only three realistic guys – currently on our 40-man – to compete for it.

Moore can play every spot on the infield AND the outfield. Haggerty can backup anywhere in the outfield and – in a pinch – can go in there at first, second, or third base. So, you can go into this 13th roster spot taking the Best Player Available, in a sense. You don’t need to worry about filling a specific hole. The outfield defense is well covered, and the infield defense is covered enough to at least get you through an emergency situation (if you were to lose two or more guys).

The three guys remaining are Tommy La Stella, Cade Marlowe, and Evan White.

The simplest and easiest answer to this question is Tommy La Stella. He’s a veteran who has experience all around the infield (save short stop) and is currently listed as a designated hitter. He’s a 34 year old veteran who has the feel of a Replacement Level hitter (if all goes well) from the left side of the plate. He’s not much of a power guy, though, so you’re bringing him in for a veteran presence and his eye at the plate. Combine that with the fact that the Mariners have options for both White and Marlowe, it’s kind of a no brainer. Let them both play every day in Tacoma, get their reps up, and call them back to Seattle if/when a need arises. It’s baseball, there are 162 games, there will eventually be a need, if not sooner, then later.

But, that’s not what anybody wants. La Stella feels like camp fodder. He’s earning $720K, which is all guaranteed, but also isn’t very much money in baseball terms. I would assume the Mariners want someone else to take this spot, but given the inherent roster flexibility with the two younger players, they’re really going to have to blow the team away this spring.

Marlowe is an interesting case, because with Trammell out, he’s the de facto “competition” for Kelenic in that platoon spot in left field. Marlowe has rocketed up the minor leagues over the last two years – playing most of 2022 in AA before getting called up to AAA for 13 games – and there’s certainly a believable scenario where he beats out Kelenic in the platoon battle, given his incredible speed, base-stealing ability (he swiped 42 bags between the two minor league levels last year), and on-base ability. At that point, it would be a battle between Kelenic and La Stella for the final bench spot, and maybe Kelenic beats him out (or maybe the team wants to preserve Kelenic’s final option year, just in case).

My hunch is, the least likely person to win the final roster spot out of Spring Training is Evan White. He’s just been too banged up the last couple years, and I have to imagine the team wants him down in Tacoma playing every day (and maybe getting cross-trained at multiple positions, to increase his value to the team). That being said, assuming White is fully healthy and stays that way, I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets called up. Even if it’s not as an injury replacement, I think his bat will be desperately needed once the month of May rolls around.

That’s all I’m giving La Stella. I imagine we’ll give him every opportunity to win the final spot in Spring Training. I imagine he’ll get regular at bats as our primary DH (when we’re not rotating quasi-rest days for the other starters), and I think it’s all but guaranteed that he’s totally washed as a Major League player. After a month or so, the team will opt to move on, and if all goes according to plan, Evan White will be the first player called up to take his place. That’ll allow him and Ty France to bounce back and forth – giving France the regular DH days he needs to stay fresh throughout the year – and hopefully provide some additional pop in a lineup that could surely use it.

It’ll also be interesting to see if White gets some work in left field. I only have a tiny bit more confidence in A.J. Pollock’s abilities to succeed in a Mariners uniform, so it would be VERY interesting to me if we one day see an Evan White/Jarred Kelenic platoon in left. Two highly-regarded former prospects giving it a go to try to salvage their careers here (one who signed the early extension to buy out his Arbitration years, the other who spurned such an offer, probably costing himself untold millions of dollars in the process).

There Isn’t A Veteran Quarterback On The Market That Interests Me For The Seahawks

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Derek Carr was recently released by the Raiders. It was a pretty great little Fuck You to the organization who abandoned him; he refused to budge one iota in his No Trade Clause, so they couldn’t recoup any value from him whatsoever (outside of the obvious savings of millions upon millions of dollars that would’ve otherwise been fully guaranteed after a certain date). So, throw him onto the pile of available quarterbacks and potentially-available quarterbacks this offseason.

As expected, no one is exciting. We all know the ideal in quarterbacks is a good guy on a rookie deal. But, failing that, you’re kinda looking for a Matthew Stafford type. Someone with talent who has otherwise been squandered in a terrible organization. That would seem to fit Derek Carr to a T, but I don’t think he can be trusted. How do you get Davante Adams and somehow have WORSE numbers as a passer?

The question on our minds should be: can you win with X Quarterback? Of course, if the rest of your team is good enough, you can win with ANY quarterback; it’s why we still talk about Trent Dilfer and the Baltimore Ravens to this very day. He’s the ideal of a terrible quarterback stumbling upon a Once-In-A-Generation elite defense/team and winning it all.

There’s three ways to win, two of them involve having a great quarterback.

  1. Great quarterback on a rookie deal allows you to bolster the rest of your roster
  2. Elite quarterback making significant money helps you overcome shortcomings elsewhere through sheer force of will (this year’s Chiefs team)
  3. Cheap game manager allows you to bolster the rest of your roster, with heavy emphasis on defensive prowess

Here’s the deal, as it relates to the Seahawks: even though we had a terrific draft class in 2022, and even though we took a step forward and made the playoffs, we’re not One Offseason Away from being a Super Bowl contending team. Even IF we do what I expect the Seahawks to do: re-sign Geno Smith to a significant contract, kill the draft with a heavy emphasis on the defense, and head into the 2023 season looking improved in all facets over the 2022 squad, there’s no way this team will have done enough to push it over the top. We’ll still be a couple guys short in the front seven, we’ll almost certainly be stuck with sub-standard safety play due to age and injuries, and we’ll still have a starting quarterback who’s good-not-great. That’s best-case scenario. In all reality, we’re Two Offseasons Away, and that’s if everything goes according to plan (which, as we all know, it never does).

That’s why I’ve been beating the drum AWAY from this concept of paying Geno Smith $35+ million a year. But, that doesn’t mean I’m looking at any of these other guys at the top of the market. Hell, I’m not even interested in the second-wave guys. The only fate worse than over-paying for Geno Smith is being saddled with Andy Dalton, Jimmy G, or Jameis Winston.

And don’t mistake my anti-Geno stance for a willingness to roll with Drew Lock. I do believe the Seahawks can rely on their offensive system, but only when it comes to a rookie. I don’t care that Lock has a year in our system; he’s still Drew Lock. He’s not giving you even 80% of what Geno gave us last year, so what’s the point? There’s no touch on his deep ball, there’s no accuracy, there’s no clutch potential of any kind.

Brock & Salk were throwing out a scenario where the Ravens might be compelled to trade Lamar Jackson, but I’m with the majority here: there’s no way I’d be willing to give up the draft capital it’ll take to get him here, nor am I willing to pay him the kind of guaranteed money he’s looking to make. Sure, he’s a fun guy to watch, but he’s not someone who can carry us to a championship by himself. He’s had MUCH better defenses in Baltimore over the years, along with a veteran coaching staff willing to cater their offense to his skillset, and what has that got them? Pass.

Even someone like Aaron Rodgers – assuming he comes away from his retreat dedicated to ass-kicking again – requires too many cap dollars, and potentially too much in trade, to get him here and allow us to compete right now. You don’t bring in Rodgers to play for 2024; you bring him in to Win Now. We wouldn’t have the roster to do that.

I’ve never been more in the corner of drafting someone. Doesn’t matter if it’s in the first, second, or third round. Draft and develop. Draft and develop. Draft and develop. That’s been our mantra in so many ways, but hardly ever with the quarterback position. We always talk about how John Schneider came from the Packers, who would frequently draft a quarterback even if they didn’t need one. Yet, that’s decidedly NOT been his M.O. with the Seahawks. I hope that starts to change. It’s getting ridiculous that we’re continuing to trawl the dregs of the veteran quarterback market for starters and backups, when we should be starting fresh with someone willing to be molded.

We’re two years away anyway. Let’s use 2023 to beef up and give our rookie a chance to work out the kinks.

What Impact Did Robinson Cano Have On The Seattle Mariners?

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Did you know that 2023 is the final year of the 10-year, $240 million contract that Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners in December of 2013? Furthermore, did you know that we’re still on the hook for another $3.75 million, even though he hasn’t played for us since 2018? I mean, it’s a far cry from the $20.25 million the Mets have to cough up for someone who likely won’t even crack a Major League roster this year, but that’s neither here nor there.

As you can read here right after it was announced, I was doing somersaults and backflips trying to talk myself into the Mariners turning around the ship. Check out the weirdly prescient crack about Cano’s bat being legally pronounced dead in 2021 (when he was actually suspended the entire year for steroids). But, I still contend that if they’d listened to me – spending money on the proper complementary veterans, and trading Taijuan Walker for David Price – maybe the 2014 Mariners would’ve broken the playoff drought.

For the TL;DR crowd, in short we were all excited the Mariners were finally spending money on a bigtime free agent, while at the same time understanding that there was no way Cano would be worth $24 million per season at the tail end of the contract.

Robbie Cano is an interesting figure in Seattle sports history. I don’t see him as someone who was particularly well-liked by fans, but he’s also not someone who’s loathed. He made the majority of his money in Seattle, but he’ll forever be associated with the New York Yankees (where he had the bulk of his success). That being said, it’s not like he dropped off the face of the earth when he came here. His numbers – while not quite as elite as they were in the Bronx – were still relatively on par with his prior production (especially when you consider he had to battle our marine layer in half his games). Predictably, his five years in Seattle were his best years of this deal; it wasn’t until after he went back to New York (this time with the Mets) where he fell off.

In that respect, Cano’s tenure here is kind of miraculous! We got the absolute best we could’ve possibly hoped for out of him (including his 2016 season where he hit a career-high 39 homers), then we got out from under his deal with a relatively low penalty (Edwin Diaz and just under $14 million in total, thanks to the 2020 COVID-shortened season, and his 2021 suspension), while still holding onto the lottery ticket that is Jarred Kelenic (who could be a valuable starter/platoon outfielder as early as this season). Granted, Cano was never able to lead us back to the playoffs, but I’m hard pressed to blame any one guy for that result (maybe Jack Zduriencik).

So, what’s Cano’s legacy here? I think that’s complicated. We got to see a Hall of Fame-calibre talent play every day for five years … but he probably cheated his way out of Hall of Fame contention thanks to his multiple steroid suspensions. You can choose to appreciate him for his abilities on the field, but at the same time it’s hard to ignore the behind-the-scenes rumors of him not trying hard, not getting along with segments of the team, and generally projecting an annoyingly laissez-faire attitude that may or may not have rubbed off on the younger players around him. It’s hard to build a culture of accountability when you’ve got such a significant presence undermining you at every turn. But, a lot of that stuff is conjecture; none of us can speak with any certainty to how he was as a teammate.

The bottom line is: the Mariners never won with Robinson Cano. Not enough to make the playoffs anyway. There were a couple years where we contended into September, but nothing really worth getting worked up about. His legacy ultimately boils down to being on the last Mariners teams before this current rebuild (which started the year after he was traded away), that ultimately led to our being a Wild Card team in 2022. And you can’t really even attribute THAT to getting rid of him, because none of the players we received in that package did anything to get us there (unless you count Justin Dunn, who we eventually flipped with other prospects in a separate deal to the Reds, netting us Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker; but that’s kinda grasping at straws).

My lasting memory of Robinson Cano in a Mariners uniform is one of half measures. We would eventually go on to sign Nelson Cruz, but not until the 2015 season, where they both played together in the lineup side-by-side for four years. But, Cruz VASTLY outshined Cano as far as contract value – decidedly earning the entirety of his money – while also allowing us to get out from under him a year too early (rather than a year too late). There’s nothing but positive vibes coming from our collective memories of Cruz. Other than that, though, the Mariners never quite spent enough or did enough to get over the hump. That era of Mariners baseball was good-not-great, and ultimately led to the decision to blow the whole thing up and start over from scratch.

It’s been much more hopeful ever since. Under Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners have drafted better, developed better, and forged a unified front with the field management. We’re no longer churning through managers every two years; Scott Servais has set the tone and the players have responded. At all levels, you can feel the difference. It’s a whole new culture with the Mariners’ organization. In that respect, Cano represents the last death knell of the previous culture. The losing culture. The bloated, ineffectual, rudderless culture. Hopefully lost to the sands of time, never to be thought of again.