Category Archives: Mariners

I Think We Have An Opening Day Roster For The Mariners!

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Nothing is official, of course. There could always be a last-minute transaction, or a surprise injury or something. But, barring anything crazy, I think we have a 26-man roster.

The Starting Pitchers

  • Luis Castillo
  • Robbie Ray
  • Logan Gilbert
  • Marco Gonzales
  • George Kirby

This all checks out, right down to the order. Teams love the righty-lefty-righty back and forth, and this is about as perfect as it gets. I know we all love George Kirby and see him as having really explosive potential in his second year in the bigs, but the team is smart to protect his arm a little bit. Hold him back, let him ease into the season, maybe skip a start here and there. If all goes according to plan, Kirby will still get some play in the post-season, with hopefully a still-fresh arm.

I’m excited to see what we’re able to get from this unit. The Mariners will go as far as their pitching takes them, so we’re going to need these guys to stay healthy and stay dominating. That’s going to be a tough proposition – considering how healthy they all were last year. Odds are against us that they stay healthy again. But, if they do? Watch out!

The Relief Pitchers

  • Andres Munoz
  • Paul Sewald
  • Matt Brash
  • Diego Castillo
  • Matt Festa
  • Trevor Gott
  • Penn Murfee
  • Chris Flexen

It’s hard to argue with the sheer arm talent of this group. I know, relievers are volatile. But, I find it really hard to believe that all or most of these guys will take steps back. Maybe one or two, but that’s fine because we also have a lot in reserve down in the minors. There’s no shortage of impact arms in this organization, who will all cycle through at one point or another.

I am interested in what Chris Flexen brings to the table. There was talk heading into Spring Training that the Mariners might go with a 6-man rotation. Maybe I misunderstood, and they were just talking about how we had 6 viable starters on our roster. Either way, it’ll be interesting to see what his workload looks like. He didn’t play a ton after he lost his starting job last year. You would think in the early going, there will be more opportunities, as most starters aren’t in mid-season form yet. But, by the same token, you hope there aren’t more opportunities, because there’s a 50/50 chance that means we’re getting blown out. The less Flexen pitches, the more we’re using our high-leverage pitchers, which means the more we’re either winning or tied in a particular game.

The Starting Nine

  1. Kolten Wong (2B)
  2. Julio Rodriguez (CF)
  3. Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
  4. Ty France (1B)
  5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
  6. Cal Raleigh (C)
  7. Tom Murphy (DH)
  8. Jarred Kelenic (LF)
  9. J.P. Crawford (SS)

For what it’s worth, that’s my official prediction for an Opening Day lineup. I feel relatively confident about the top six; I feel least confident about Tom Murphy. But, I’ll say this, he’s got tremendous power, he’s a veteran, and with the third catcher, this really doesn’t hurt us if someone goes down mid-game. In a game that figures to be low scoring, one big swing of the bat might make all the difference, and maybe that swing comes from Murph.

The Bench/Platoon Bats

  • A.J. Pollock (OF)
  • Sam Haggerty (UTIL)
  • Cooper Hummel (C/OF)
  • Tommy La Stella (INF/DH)

These guys have probably a month to figure out who belongs and who doesn’t, before Dylan Moore (hopefully) returns from the IL. I don’t think Pollock is going anywhere, he seems pretty entrenched as a platoon partner for Kelenic. I also don’t think Haggerty is going anywhere unless he is in an absolutely miserable slump; but odds are he won’t be playing much outside of late-inning pinch runner duty. La Stella seems like the favorite to be cut, but I also wonder how much he’s even going to play in the early going? He might get a DH start here and there, but I could also see this team playing Pollock at DH along with Murph (and the other starters we opt to give some rest).

If La Stella can get off to a hot start, though, maybe we hang onto him a bit in favor of sending Hummel down to Tacoma. Doubtful, but you never know.

Top to bottom, 1-26, this is a quality roster. With, encouragingly, lots in reserve to come up and help in a pinch. I can’t wait for tomorrow night!

My Thoughts On The New Rules In Baseball

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I should probably go ahead and start out by saying that I have not yet watched nor listened to a baseball game since the new rules were implemented in Spring Training. And I didn’t get a chance to make it out to a minor league game last year. I can’t remember if the rules were in place the last time I did go to a Rainiers game; I vaguely remember a pitch clock running, but I don’t remember the umpires being sticklers for adhering to it. This was the year Kelenic started in AAA – so that would’ve been 2021 – and from what I recall they were just starting to sprinkle it in.

Anyway, I suppose my thoughts could change as I start watching games and as the season progresses. But, from what I’m hearing, and from what I know the rules represent, I think I’m like the majority: overwhelmingly in favor of them.

Pitch Clock

I’m decidedly NOT a baseball purist. I don’t think I’m any kind of sports purist, but I’ll be honest, I’m especially a fan of speeding things up.

Now, clearly, I’m no athlete. But, my friends and I used to play a considerable amount of baseball in my backyard (the baseball was a tennis ball, the bat was thick and plastic, the strike zone was a towel thumbtacked to the fence, foul balls over the fence/house were outs, you could throw the ball at a baserunner to tag them out), and as a pitcher who took pride in his craft (and kept copious notes of his stats throughout the “seasons”), I was a big fan of taking the ball and throwing it, with very little in-between nonsense.

It’s not that I necessarily hate it when a pitcher futzes with his gear, or when a hitter fidgets with his batting gloves. But, taken as a whole, you can see the clear difference in game play. We’re shaving off 30 minutes of bullshit! If your OCD brain can’t function between pitches without doing 15 ritualistic things, then maybe you don’t belong in the Major Leagues. Somebody posted a video to Twitter that featured nearly 3 minutes of down time between pitches; that’s clinically insane!

It’s also not like I was always thinking “games are too long”, but you knew it when you were watching it. Some pitcher loses the strike zone for an inning, and all of a sudden you’re sitting there for 45 minutes before the next team’s up to bat. You had hoped to be finished and in bed before 10pm, and all of a sudden it’s pushing 11pm with no end in sight.

It’s easy to blame the most egregious cases. I don’t know how Boston fans tolerated Nomar Garciaparra all those years. I know, in recent times, it’s been a nightmare having to sit through Diego Castillo on the mound; a guy who seemingly never makes it through an inning in under 20 pitches, with 45 hat twists in between. But, clearly, it’s just about everyone, all game long, contributing to the runaway boredom.

I’m a pretty big fan of the Mariners; I’ve been following them religiously since 1995. And even still, it’s hard to stay engaged through all 9 innings! I’m usually right there in the beginning, then I lose focus through the middle innings, before making a return towards the end. I don’t think that’s uncommon. When there’s nothing else going on; when it’s a lazy Sunday afternoon and you might find yourself nodding off for an hour or so in front of the TV, the pace of baseball becomes nice white noise to soothe your restful mind.

But now, when you know you probably only have two and a half hours before it’s over, there’s more urgency. There’s fewer opportunities to turn your focus to your phone, or whatever else is on TV. If you step away to make dinner, you might now find 3-4 innings have gone by!

There’s only a couple of instances where I’m not as much of a fan of the new pace of play.

The first has to do with the rhythm of the broadcast. Now, the shorter games can also be a good thing here, if you have announcers who are boring/annoying. But, when you’ve got good ones – when you’ve got Aaron Goldsmith and Mike Blowers, for instance – you don’t mind spending 3+ hours with them, because they’re so entertaining and good at their jobs. You want to hear their stories, you want to learn what facts they’ve dug up for that game, you want to laugh at their jokes and just be in their company. So, that’s a bit of a bummer. There’ll be a learning curve, I’m sure. Plenty of cliffhangers to stories that have to wait until the next half-inning. But, that’ll work itself out. And, most importantly, it isn’t the end of the world, nor a deal-breaker.

My other gripe is going to be one that I’m just going to have to deal with, and that’s actually attending the games. I don’t go during the work week. If I did – or if I retired and had season tickets – then yeah, getting out of there and back home by 10pm would be a very ideal scenario. But, when I go, it’s an event. I get a group of friends together, or I’m there with my sweetheart, and we’re there to have a good time! We want alcoholic beverages, we want to try all the different kinds of foods, maybe we want a souvenir, and I know that I want to enjoy myself as I keep score in a scorecard. I never want those games to end! Now, if you go to a game, and concessions don’t have their shit together, you’re bound to miss a significant chunk of the game because you were stuck in line! Not for nothing, but with the Mariners being as good as they are, you know there’s going to be a drastic increase in fan attendance, which is only going to further strain the understaffed concessions booths. And you better be on your toes for that seventh inning, because alcohol sales are going to be over before you know it!

I’m never going to be fully happy going to games unless they manage to go into extra innings. But, again, that’s just something I’ll have to deal with.

No More Shift

I’ll admit, I didn’t hate the shift as much as some people. Part of me feels like hitters should be able to knock the ball the other way, or otherwise take a bunt when they’re clearly giving it to you. But, mostly, I actually like pitching and defense. I like it when guys throw 7+ innings of shutout ball. I like the strategy of taking advantage of a particular hitter’s pull tendencies. I think all of that is very interesting, and it makes spray hitters that much more valuable.

But, it’s also REALLY discouraging to see a hitter whip a ball straight up the pitcher’s ass – where it used to glide over the mound and second base, into the outfield without even the semblance of a play from the short stop or second baseman – only for it to be easily scooped up by a guy standing right there and thrown to first for an easy 6-3 put-out. And it’s rather pathetic to see all of these left-handed batters roll over to the second baseman who’s positioned halfway between the infield dirt and the outfield wall.

Then, I think about what the shift has meant to certain hitters. Corey Seager’s Brother Kyle Seager, for instance, might’ve been a perennial All Star. He came into baseball just as it was starting to be widely implemented, and by the end he was a shell of his early self and couldn’t keep his average above .250 to save his life. From 2011-2016, he was a .266 hitter; never had an average below .258. From 2017-2021, he was a .231 hitter; never had an average above .249. To make up for it, you really had to swing for the fences, which only increased your strikeouts (leading to that Three True Outcomes era we all loathed).

How many careers were derailed because of the shift? Conversely, how many middling pitchers were sustained? It’s not even that, though. Clearly, pitchers have outpaced hitters in natural ability over the last 20 years. Getting steroids out of the game helped. But, these guys are throwing in the upper 90’s with ease. They’re throwing nasty change-ups and sliders as secondary pitches, and the hitters can’t keep up. So, it only makes sense to throw the hitters a bone in this regard.

I say that as, again, a guy who loves pitching. A few more seeing-eye singles won’t make a whole helluva lot of difference for the really elite pitchers. But, maybe we get some of the duds out of the game a little quickler.

Bigger Bases/Fewer Pickoffs

I don’t know who could possibly have a problem with this, because it’s all straight up fun. Stolen bases are fun! Infield singles are fun! You know what’s not fun? Watching a pitcher throw over to first five times, only for that guy to take off running anyway. Pickoffs RARELY work. No one really has a good move anymore. More than anything, they just take advantage of the carelessness of the runner, who might have guessed wrong or just wasn’t paying attention.

I wasn’t even around for them, but I miss the days of guys stealing 100 bags. Between that and the shift going away, this feels like a resurgence for speedy slap hitters, who have been all but legislated out of the game thanks to nerds who took advantage of a flawed system. I’m all for winning by any means necessary, but it’s nice to add value where you can. And if a guy can hit around .300 – with little-to-no power – while stealing a bunch of bases and scoring a bunch of runs, there should be a place for him in Major League Baseball. It shouldn’t all be lumbering bombers who strike out 200 times a year and walk 100 times a year.

The beauty of baseball is that it takes all comers. You can be short, skinny, and fast, or you can be big, strong, and fat – or, really, any body type in between – and if you can play, you can play. So, let everyone play!

It’s funny, sports leagues tweak rules all the time, and it seems like they’re constantly getting it wrong. The NFL is a major culprit in this; who remembers the disaster that was allowing coaches to throw challenge flags for pass interference? Lots of half measures and hare-brained compromises lead to a watering down of the product. But, I feel like baseball got these things 100% right. Again, we’ll see how it shakes out in the regular season. But, without going to severe extremes – like shortening games to 7 innings – they’ve managed to preserve the integrity of the game, while reshaping it for future generations.

And, oddly enough, getting back to basics a little bit. Games used to be like this way back in the day. Shorter in length, with more singles and stolen bases. We’re improving the game for future generations by harkening back to a time when it was played by previous generations!

How Devastating Is This Dylan Moore Injury For The Mariners?

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One of the most terrifying things about the WBC is watching your players get ripped from the slow ramp-up of Spring Training activities and thrown into the fire of “meaningful” baseball in front of tens of thousands of screaming fans. I’m sure it’s an enjoyable experience for their home countries to root for – as if we didn’t already have the damn Olympics; why couldn’t we just keep baseball in that tournament? – but for fans of specific Major League Baseball teams, you’re just hoping your guys make it through unscathed.

It’s not so much a worry of them getting knocked around; I’m sure most will mentally recover from the devastating effects of losing in the WBC. No, rather it’s worrying about what happened to Edwin Diaz. He LITERALLY just signed a 5-year $102 million contract extension with the Mets. His team just knocked out some other team in the WBC (not even in the finals, mind you, but one of the earlier rounds), and his teammates were gathered around him near the mound, jumping up and down in a pile of bodies, when he tore a tendon in his leg. He needs surgery and is lost for the year. He’ll be 30 years old in 2024, and who knows how he’s going to recover or if he’ll ever be his old, dominant self? The Mets might’ve just signed on for an albatross to end all albatross contracts.

Thankfully, the Mariners have seemingly avoided any such calamities. Nevertheless, no team makes it through the spring unscathed. So far, we appear to be heading into the regular season without Dylan Moore.

Under normal circumstances, if you told me the biggest injury issue we’d have to date is a utility infielder/outfielder with an oblique strain, I’d say we’re doing pretty good, all things considered. And that’s true. But, it’s at least a little worrisome considering how much the Mariners had planned on using him. By my estimation, he figured to play at least 3-4 times a week, maybe more. He’d be filling in at short and second base, to give Crawford rest and to platoon a bit with Wong. You figure he’d also be a backup at third base, to give Suarez a blow with a DH day or something.

And that’s the rub. The Mariners don’t have a traditional DH. It’s going to be a rotation of guys. With Moore likely the next man up to fill the void out on the field.

It’s not like we’re losing a superstar or anything, so I’m not trying to get my panties in a bunch. He’s not even a 2-WAR player. But, it goes to show how razor-thin we are in our depth. The drop-off from Moore to whoever fills his spot on the active roster is going to be considerable. And, likely, it shifts our plan to give Crawford more rest, and to give Wong a platoon partner. Ideally, Moore will return by May and we’ll get the full effects of whatever Dylan Moore brings to this team. But, it’s an oblique, and that shit tends to linger and get re-aggravated if the athlete isn’t careful in his recovery. How this will affect us over the course of the season is anybody’s guess, but I’m assuming it isn’t great.

I’ll be interested to see what the Mariners opt to do. Trading for an outside replacement seems very unsatisfying. Though, I suppose, that’s what you carry six starting pitchers for. If you can’t trade Flexen or Gonzales for reinforcements, then why are you still employing them? That being said, you’d like to think you can get more than just a reserve infielder for a legitimate innings-eater (which both Flexen and Gonzo are). I guess it all depends on how our internal options look (there’s Haggerty, and a few guys who have never cracked the bigs before), and how long it takes Moore to return.

That’s my biggest worry. Moore was already recovering from a “core surgery” a few months ago. He was already being brought along slowly, and just starting to ramp up to play in actual Spring Training games, when he strained his oblique on a swing in batting practice. I don’t know if these injuries are related, or if it’s just one thing on top of another, but every time I’ve heard of a player suffering an oblique injury, it’s taken significantly longer for them to recover than what original estimates stated. Suffice it to say, I’m not confident we’ll get Moore back by May. I’m not even confident we’ll see him before the summer, if we see him at all this year.

But, as I said before, it’s not the end of the world. Let’s just hope this isn’t the first domino of many to drop. I can’t handle a Season From Hell with these Mariners. They’re just too damned promising and fun to watch; don’t ruin my year!

What Could Possibly Go Wrong For The 2023 Mariners Pitchers?!

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As usual, I get into a situation where I want to write about the entire team, and I have to split it up into two posts because it gets way too unwieldy. Yesterday, we talked about the hitters, today it’s the pitchers.

I’m more bullish on the pitchers than I am on the hitters. So, that having been said, watch the hitters crush it this year, while the pitching lags behind. That having been said, there are legitimate concerns about everyone.

Luis Castillo – I’ve already written about Castillo, so I’ll let that pretty much speak for itself. That having been said, the floor is still higher with him than anyone else in the rotation. Even if he gets off to a bad start to the season, he should right the ship at some point and keep things steady. Nevertheless, just one season prior we signed Robbie Ray to a big money deal, and he definitely took a step back from his Cy Young-winning pace.

Robbie Ray – Speaking of which, I think it’s fair to be a little worried. He got off to a rough start, picked it up mid-season when he re-introduced his 2-seam fastball back into the repertoire, but after his hot stretch, was up-and-down to close the year. He also REALLY struggled against the Astros and Blue Jays (with very poor playoff performances), and seemingly cleaned up against the bottom-feeders of the A.L. I don’t know if he can be trusted. Lotta meatballs being thrown over too much of the plate. His K/9 was the lowest it’s been since 2015 (in just his second season in the Majors), that’s a bad trend. This isn’t so much a precautionary tale as it is what I think will happen this season: I think Robbie Ray will suck!

Logan Gilbert – He made a huge jump in innings last year, going from 119.1 to 185.2 (plus playoffs), so while I’m not necessarily worried about his results, I am worried about arm fatigue. Let’s hope he’s a unicorn. He could also stand to have better off-speed stuff to generate whiffs; he can’t rely on his fastball forever.

George Kirby – Similarly, we’re looking at a kid who went from the minors to 130 innings (plus playoffs). We’re going to need to ride these power arms if we want to go far through the playoffs. We’re also going to need them to make up for the trainwreck that Robbie Ray figures to be. It’s worrisome that we also have to limit their innings through the regular season just to carry them through, but it’s also necessary for their longterm health.

Marco Gonzales – I understand he’s in the “best shape of his life” or whatever, but he’s Marco. He has soft stuff and needs pinpoint command to limit damage. Like Ray, he’ll clean up on the bottom-feeders, but otherwise he’s just an innings-eater. The worry from now on is: when will he fall off a cliff? I don’t know if he has the kind of stuff to be a Jamie Moyer type and pitch into his 40’s.

Chris Flexen – The other concern with these last two starters is: who will ultimately be traded mid-season? I would expect Flexen has more trade value given his contract status; he’d be a nice little veteran rental for some pitching-needy team. That is, unless he totally falls off the face of the earth. He doesn’t have the best stuff, and while I understand he’s fully capable of eating innings as a long reliever, I don’t know if that’s the role most suited to his abilities. A soft-throwing guy with a 6+ ERA isn’t going to fetch much of anything at the deadline.

Andres Munoz – There’s never going to be a year where we don’t worry about his arm. The way he throws, it’s just going to be a given. Now, obviously, he looks like the second coming of Edwin Diaz, and last year he very much pitched like that. But, even Diaz had that first year with the Mets where his ERA was pushing 6 and he was blowing saves left and right. Between him and Cano in 2019, it truly looked like the M’s fleeced them in that deal. But, ever since, Diaz has been lights out and earned a humongous contract extension. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Munoz have that kind of career trajectory, up to and including the anomaly of a terrible season. Will it be in 2023? We’ll have to wait and see.

Paul Sewald – Here’s a guy who’s been an absolute revelation since joining the Mariners in 2021. He struck out guys at a ridiculously unsustainable clip that first year, before coming back down to Earth in 2022. Nevertheless, he was still very good, with an even-better ERA. However, there were little blips of rough outings towards the end that give me pause. Did he just get tired? That’s certainly understandable; he’s pitched 60+ games in back-to-back years, in EXTREMELY high-leverage situations. He hasn’t come close to that kind of usage in his professional career. Hopefully, with other Mariners relievers taking steps forward in their development, that’ll give us more chances to rest Sewald, so he’ll be fresher down the stretch. But, the secret concern is: has the league caught up to his weird throwing style? He doesn’t come with a lot of heat, so he’s overly reliant on his unique arm slot and pitch movement. But, when he leaves a hanger, it can get crushed.

Matt Brash – Everyone. I mean EVERYONE is high on Matt Brash right now. So, right here, how can you not be concerned? If you could bet on Matt Brash being awesome in 2023, there would be a huge discrepancy between the betting public and the Vegas sportsbooks. Smart money’s always on the house. I’m just saying, don’t be shocked if he gets knocked around, or suffers elbow issues.

Diego Castillo – You don’t have to squint very hard to see a scenario where Castillo stinks. With the advent of the pitch clock, you’re talking about speeding up one of the slowest pitchers in baseball. Now, as a casual fan, it’ll be nice not to have to endure his constant twitching and adjusting of his baseball cap between every single pitch. But, what will that mean for his effectiveness? He’s overly reliant on a slider that gets a lot of swings and misses, but he also has a tendency to blow up and get mashed around. I’d love to know how his numbers look whenever he throws 20+ pitches in an inning, vs. when he’s able to get out in 19 or less. The more he throws, the wilder he gets. His numbers were already trending the wrong way last year, and he has lost his high-leverage status accordingly. Is this the year where it all falls apart?

Matt Festa – He’s kind of Just A Guy to me. He throws strikes, which will keep him employed more often than not. But, I don’t know what he does beyond that that’s anything special. Natural variance could clip his wings.

Penn Murfee – Oddball spelling of his name aside, at least Murfee has a sweeping slider that’s tough on righties. But, he also doesn’t have an amazing fastball, so he could be done in by a few bad outings as well.

Trevor Gott – I’m going to cut this post off here, as everyone else looks to be depth pieces. We lost Erik Swanson in a trade this offseason – probably selling at the exact peak of his value – and Gott figures to be a veteran option to throw onto the pile. He’s only making a little over a million bucks, so it’s not like we’re compelled to keep him all year. He’s really just some insurance against a few of the younger arms we’re looking to call up at some point. I expect him to be terrible, and pitch exclusively in the lowest-leverage situations.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong For The 2023 Mariners Hitters?!

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I’m on record as saying the Mariners will be going back to the playoffs in 2023. Granted, they’re most likely not going to win the A.L. West – the Astros just have too great of a talent disparity over us – but on paper, and with the eye test, the Mariners seem like the best wild card team of the bunch. Barring a calamity of injuries, we should find ourselves back where we belong. I would also argue – again, barring injuries to our most key players – that we’re in a better position to make a deep playoff run, even if we don’t necessarily have the horses to win 100 games in the regular season.

But, we must never forget that these are the Seattle Mariners. All we know is failure. All but five of our 40-some-odd seasons of existence have ended without a post-season berth. There’s never been a World Series appearance, meaning the five best seasons have also ended in defeat. And, anecdotally, it seems like whenever our expectations are at their highest, the M’s find a way to crumple under the pressure.

I’ve been teasing this post for a little while now, but it’s time to get into it. Yes, there’s more optimism for this group of players than I can remember in the last 20 years combined. But, there’s also legitimate arguments to be made for every single one of these players to underperform. I won’t touch on the entire 40-man roster, but we’ll hit on a good portion of guys.

Julio Rodriguez – He’s already been anointed as one of the next great superstars of the game of baseball – with a contract to match – so you’d think if there was anyone safe from the Mariners curse, it’d be Julio. But, freakier shit has happened. It’s only his second year in the bigs, and he’s already had to endure ups and downs. What’s to say he doesn’t get off to another slow start, and things start to snowball?

Cal Raleigh – This one seems a little more legitimate, to me at least. He had a great year last year, but it’s extremely reliant on his power numbers. He was also worked quite a bit – particularly down the stretch – and is coming off of a thumb injury that limited him severely. We know he’s not going to be a guy who hits for average, and he’s practically a liability on the basepaths with his lack of speed. So, if the power numbers take a dive, he could be Rob Johnson-esque!

Ty France – I would call France our most reliable hitter, by a pretty significant margin. The caveat there, of course, is when he’s healthy. While he’s tough as hell, the last two seasons have seen him swoon for long stretches whenever he’s forced to gut out minor injuries (“minor” of course; I’m sure they’d be painful as hell to normal people). He’s also among the league leaders in getting hit by pitches, and isn’t afraid to make physical contact when trying to make a play in the field. So, you have to wonder how his body is going to last, or if it’ll break down prematurely. He seems like the kind of player who will shine bright for a short period of time, but will fall off a cliff when it comes time to sign a bigtime free agent contract. If he suffers a major injury and has to spend a long chunk of time on the IL, that could be disastrous for us. What might be worse is if he suffers some minor injuries early and often, and opts to play through them with negative results.

Eugenio Suarez – You can easily see the variety of possibilities for Suarez in 2023. Just look at his previous two seasons. 30 points of batting average seemingly makes all the difference in the world between him being a sub-replacement player vs. a 4-win player on a playoff team. What can go wrong with Suarez? Simple BABIP luck.

Teoscar Hernandez & Kolten Wong – This one’s also easy: neither of these guys have played the majority of their games in T-Mobile Park. Hernandez isn’t strictly a power guy, but a significant portion of his value is his ability to hit for extra bases and knock runners in. If he succumbs to the marine layer, it’s going to be a long and brutal season (see: Jesse Winker). Since Wong isn’t really a power guy, you’d think he might be a safer fit, but we’ve seen plenty of slap hitters falter in Seattle (see: Adam Frazier, Chone Figgins, etc.). He’s also 32 years old and on the tail-end of his Major League career.

J.P. Crawford – His on-base ability is pretty well established at this point, and his defense is very solid. But, there’s never been much power to speak of, and we seem to be banking a lot of his future success on changes to his swing from this past offseason. He certainly needed to switch things up, after a prolonged slump in the second half of 2022; getting his bat through the zone quicker will be a must. But, what if it doesn’t take? What if he reverts to old habits? We might be regretting not going after a high-priced short stop replacement, if that’s the case.

Jarred Kelenic & A.J. Pollock – I’ve already talked about these guys enough. Kelenic has yet to do anything for an extended period of the regular season. And Pollock seems like he’s Just A Guy. It would be a HUGE upset victory if both of these guys pan out; we’re just hoping for a little competence out of one of them.

Dylan Moore & Sam Haggerty – The great utility duo. I think they’re both coming off of injuries, which isn’t super encouraging. Moore is also slated to have a pretty major role on this team, since we don’t actually have a DH. There’s little-to-no power to speak of, so if their batting averages struggle, they’re going to be a huge liability.

Tom Murphy – I can’t even remember the last time he was healthy for a full season. Maybe never? I also don’t know what we have in reserve, but it doesn’t seem pretty. The worst-case scenario is Cal Raleigh turning back into a pumpkin, Tom Murphy getting hurt, and having to slog through with Cooper Hummel.

How Concerned Should The Mariners Be About A Slow Luis Castillo Start?

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Let me get ahead of this right now: I’m not talking about Spring Training here. I fully understand Luis Castillo’s M.O. when it comes to preparing for a baseball season: he uses Spring Training as a ramp-up to the regular season. So, he’s just getting his work in. Building up his arm. Getting his body in shape. It’s fine. I’m not going to bother myself with that. His fastball speed is down, his results are poor, I don’t care. These games are 100% meaningless.

But, I would like to take a look back at his prior regular seasons, and see what we can glean. Castillo is notorious for slow starts. One would hope the Mariners know the secret sauce to getting ready on time – we did, after all, employ King Felix for many years, who seemed to employ a similar strategy in his own preparation – so we’ll see if it works out this year, or if it takes until 2024 to lock in.

As sort of a refresher course, Castillo was called up to the bigs in late June of 2017; he had what I would call a solid rookie campaign. Ups and downs, but a few really outstanding performances sprinkled in. He was in the Reds’ rotation from the jump in 2018 and stayed there the whole year. This was by far his least-successful season (really skewing the early-season numbers, as he had an ERA of damn near 8 through April), where he was either really good or really bad in alternating months.

I would say 2019 is where we start to see the Luis Castillo we know and love. It’s just too bad he was on such a terrible team.

Anyway, looking back through his entire Major League career, he has an ERA of 4.58 in March/April (18 starts) and 4.63 in May (22 starts). It drops down considerably in June and July, before a blip in August sees his ERA return to 4.17 (30 starts) before a hot September closes things out.

What’s interesting is if you look at it year-by-year. In 2019, his March/April numbers were phenomenal! He suffered through the dog days of August, though, and his September wasn’t a whole lot better. That has the makings of someone who was really on the ball to start, but withered down the stretch.

It’s hard to take anything seriously with the shortened 2020 season, but his July/August could double as his March/April in normal years. In this case, he had an ERA of about 4.12 before picking things up in September.

In 2021, it was a return to normal, and not in the way you’d like to see. His April and May were absolutely atrocious. Exactly 1 quality start out of 11. In a way, that’s sort of the nightmare scenario for us.

In another way, 2022 is sort of a nightmare as well, since he missed all of April with a shoulder injury. I guess that’s one way to avoid an April swoon. He did hit the ground running in May, and avoided the August doldrums after being traded to Seattle. But, there were a couple of spotty performances in September before he got it together and dominated in the playoffs.

So, what does this tell us? I don’t know if it really tells us anything, other than to be on guard.

Seeing his career trajectory, and getting to watch his filthy stuff, not to mention the way he performed in the biggest moments of a playoff season with the Mariners, it all leads me to believe this guy has Cy Young stuff. He really does look like the second coming of Felix Hernandez. I’d like to believe he has that kind of season in him, but to do that, you really can’t afford to take any months off.

The whole justification for the Mariners’ relative inactivity this past offseason was in large part due to the rationale that we would have a full season out of Luis Castillo (rather than two months and change). But, that’s predicated on Castillo in April 2023 looking like Castillo in October of 2022. If he comes out of the box looking like Ken Cloude, then what are we even doing here?

I have a vested interest outside of just being a Mariners fan. I’m planning to attend the Opening Day game, and I’d like him to look good with the Mariners prevailing. I also, not for nothing, am planning on going to Reno in just over a week, and I wouldn’t mind throwing some money down on Castillo winning the Cy Young Award. The odds were a lot more lucrative a month or two ago, but it’s still not a bad little flier to take, all things considered.

It’s not the end of the world if he looks mortal out of the gate. But, I don’t want to see us dig ourselves too big of a hole either. The Mariners are notorious slow starters, especially with the bats. We need quality pitching early on to get us through before things heat up and we get on a roll. Early season winning could make all the difference between being a middling wild card team and contending for the division title.

The Mariners Need Teoscar Hernandez To Be Great

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Writing about an individual before the season has even started is the ultimate kiss of death for the weak-willed motherfucker.

If you wanted to put the 2022 Mariners in a nutshell, you’d say that they got to where they were because of their pitching, but ultimately failed to go any further because of their hitting. A 1-0 loss in 18 innings to end our playoff run isn’t a perfect microcosm of that team, but it’ll get the job done.

After this most recent offseason, I think it’s safe to say the 2023 Mariners will go as far as their pitching will take them, and ultimately fail to go any further because of their hitting. That’s not a reason for dismay, necessarily, because an argument can be made that their pitching is set to be even better this year, while there’s always a chance for the hitting to also be improved.

To put it politely, there’s a lot of room for variance among the bottom third of the lineup. But, I think we’re all banking on the upper two-thirds to be as advertised. Julio Rodriguez is going to play like a superstar. Ty France is going to be steady while he’s healthy, and he’s going to slowly break down over the course of the season as he leads the league in being hit by pitches. Eugenio Suarez is going to lead the team in homers and strikeouts. Cal Raleigh is going to be one of the most valuable catchers in the game. And Kolten Wong is going to bring veteran at-bats to every game he plays in. Even if the bottom third stinks, it’s going to give us occasional bouts of competence (at the very least), and when you wrap it all up, that should make the Mariners – with the pitching we’ve accumulated – playoff participants for the second year in a row.

There’s a real wild card here who could make all the difference. For once, I’m not talking about the impending breakout season of Jarred Kelenic. No, this time I’m talking about our lone major hitting addition this past offseason: Teoscar Hernandez.

Last year, we were saddled with far too many games featuring a massively-underperforming Jesse Winker, and a wildly-disappointing Abraham Toro, with precious too-few games from Mitch Haniger. That’s just a lot of turmoil for an outfield (Toro obviously played a lot of second base as well, but he was also a utility outfielder at times), which we had hoped was going to be one of our biggest strengths. Hernandez will hopefully stabilize things a little bit.

He’s a two-time Silver Slugger who’s averaged over 20 homers in every non-COVID season the last five years. Easily his best season came in 2021 when he hit a career high 32 homers, while slashing .296/.346/.524. That’s the ceiling. At least, for now.

He’s also in his age 30 season, heading into the final year of his contract. He just lost an Arbitration case with the Mariners, meaning he’s only getting $14 million instead of the $16 million that he wanted. With the way free agents are racking up the dough with these contracts nowadays, he’s in line for a massive payday after this season. So, he has all the motivation in the world to overcome the marine layer in Seattle and play his absolute best ball of his life.

And, frankly, the Mariners need it.

Our margin for error is razor thin, when it comes to competing with the Astros for the division. We need everything to break right, up to and including Teoscar and/or Julio playing like the MVP of the American League. But, given how injury luck can strike, along with the natural variance of the game of baseball, it also wouldn’t shock me if the Mariners weren’t quite locks to even make a wild card spot. Getting the most out of Hernandez would go a long way toward ensuring we don’t come up a game or two short at the end.

The worst case scenario for all involved is for Hernandez to hit the IL for a significant portion of the season. That’s going to – depending on the injury – drastically reduce his value in free agency, while at the same time severely hamper our ability to compete this season.

The best case scenario for all involved is for Hernandez to jack 40+ homers, hit around .280, and knock in 90+ RBI, followed by some other team overpaying for his services next offseason (or, if the Mariners do sign him to an extension, then he turns into a young Nelson Cruz in his prime).

With Teoscar in that group of guys at the top of the lineup, crushing the ball like he’s never crushed it before, we could really do some damage this year! There’s nothing more fearsome than a talented player in contract year. If you can factor that in with more DH days for Ty (to rest his body), with more familiarity by Suarez when it comes to facing A.L. pitching, and with a skyrocketing career trajectory by Julio, there’s no telling how far this team can go. It’s not necessarily about winning the division (though, that would be most delightful), it’s about getting hot come playoff time and riding our pitching to a World Series championship.

In Defense Of Tanking In Sports

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Other than Cheating, I would say the concept of Tanking is the biggest taboo in sports. There’s certainly no honor in either, though unlike tanking, there’s a variety of definitions when it comes to cheating. If you hold someone in football and get away with it, technically you’ve just cheated. But, no one is going to walk up to the ref and ask to have a flag thrown on them. And, other than the guy being held – and the fans of that player’s team – no one is going to complain about it either. However, set up an elaborate video camera and trashcan banging system in baseball to steal signals from your opponent while alerting your own hitters, and you’re rightly vilified as the fucking scumbag Astros that you are (Astros being synonymous with Cheaters, naturally).

I see a gray area when it comes to tanking, though. My worst nightmare is being a fan of a team that constantly finishes in the middle. Good enough to really squint and see some hope, but ultimately never a championship contender, yet never so abysmal as to get a top draft pick the following year. I get to say that because I’ve always been a fan of Seattle teams. If I were a fan of the Lions or Pirates or whoever continuously stinks in the NBA (I would’ve said the Kings, but from what I understand, they’re actually sorta okay this year), I’m sure I’d be reading this right now totally outraged. I get it. It can ALWAYS be worse.

Because, here’s the thing: tanking in the wrong hands gets you absolutely nowhere. Until this year, you could point to the Jacksonville Jaguars as a prime example. Even with their number one quarterback – and slew of other high draft picks all around that roster – shoddy coaching choices continued to hold them back (until they finally lucked into hiring Doug Pederson).

And the biggest problem with baseball is that Tanking has become a way of life for some of these small market teams. The Rays and A’s have figured out a sort of cheat code in their development and shrewd scouting of other teams’ prospects (who they acquire in trades for their own successful superstars who figure to be too expensive to retain), but by and large the lowest payroll teams need to get unsustainably lucky with their own prospects hitting at the same time, while taking advantage of signing under-the-radar free agents for pennies on the dollar (see the Kansas City Royals of 2014-2015, which was an oasis in a VAST deserted wasteland of seasons before and since). Tanking can provide a sense of hope, but if all you do is tank every single year, all hope is lost.

It’s especially galling in baseball because there’s so much money to be had. Yet, teams long ago discovered that you don’t really need to put in much effort on payroll to turn a profit year over year. You’ll get yours, and whatever you don’t earn, you’ll be handed thanks to a revenue-sharing system that seems quite antithetical to the American way of life. On top of that, every year that goes by, your franchise is worth more and more money. It’s the only certainty in life; not even death & taxes have it on the valuation of professional franchises in the top North American sports.

So, I understand why many people have no patience for baseball teams who tank. Or, really, any team, be it football, basketball, hockey, soccer, whathaveyou. We’re talking about billionaire owners, who’ve decided to be fucking cheapskates. Even though they do pretty well for themselves for all the limitations they’ve placed on themselves, I have zero respect for the Athletics, because all they do is hold the city of Oakland hostage in an attempt to get taxpayers to pay for a new stadium they could EASILY afford. And, if for whatever reason they can’t afford it, then they need to sell the fucking team to an owner (or a group or owners) who will actually try. Imagine what the A’s or Rays could do – with their talent evaluators and coaching throughout all levels of the organization – if they actually spent money.

But, if we take those teams out of the equation – those teams who prioritize winning below anything and everything else – I think tanking can be a good and healthy refresher for an organization. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not so naive as to think any team prioritizes winning above all else; these are billionaires, they’re always going to be about the money first. But, there are self-respecting owners who also want to put a good product on the field. Who want to play in a stadium they can be proud of. Who ideally DON’T want to completely alienate their fanbase. I’ll be honest, I don’t understand how A’s fans do it year-in and year-out. That organization would drive me absolutely bonkers, and make no mistake, they’ve been SIGNIFICANTLY more successful than the Mariners in my lifetime.

Getting back to my original point, though, sometimes teams get bogged down. They develop a plan and see it through and for one reason or another, the plan fails. It happens. You saddle yourself with bad contracts, old players, and you know you’re never going to get anywhere trying to fit that square peg in a round hole. See: the Mariners from 2014-2018. They had … some semblance of a plan, and they came close to making the playoffs, but for one reason or another, they just couldn’t put it all together. And they definitely weren’t going to vie for a World Series; at best, that group of veterans might’ve snuck in as a Wild Card, but likely no better. So, they tore it all down, acquired some prospects, rededicated themselves to a pitching-centric draft strategy, and now here we are. We made the ALDS in 2022, we have an elite superstar in Julio Rodriguez, we have a bona fide ace pitcher (with lots of quality arms below him), and we appear to be poised for a run of playoff appearances. While there are no guarantees in life, if everything breaks right, the Mariners have as good a chance as anyone to play for a World Series title as soon as this year. You can only say that about so many teams, even this early into Spring Training. I know we’re all 0-0 right now, but in reality, there’s always the Haves and Have Nots. The Mariners are in the Haves group, which is a rare and wonderful thing. And it never would’ve happened without a little tanking spree.

That having been said, obviously you don’t HAVE to tank to turn your fortunes around. But there’s a psychological component that’s beneficial to your fanbase. As I said up top, it can be frustrating to be mired in the middle. All too often, fans lose faith in their teams. They believe the organization has lost the thread. That they have no plan, and instead are just spinning their wheels. And, to all of our detriment, those organizations can get panicky. They see the writing on the wall – that a coach or a GM is on the hot seat – and make poor deals to try to jumpstart a turnaround. How many times have the Seahawks blundered in recent years, compounding mistakes by making even dumber moves? Until they finally did what had to be done and traded Russell Wilson. That immediately put us in a position to kick off a rebuild, even as we improbably succeeded with Wilson’s erstwhile backup. My lack of faith in that backup has no bearing on reality, where we’re one great draft away from potentially building a championship contender.

Which leads us down another tangent. Sometimes, when you have smart people running your organization, what looks like a tanking season turns out to be something much more special. Like the 2022 Seahawks. In those cases, you thank your lucky stars you’ve got people in charge who know more than everyone else.

For all the teams who don’t win a championship – all teams but one, every single season – keeping hope alive is the name of the game. For those teams not already in an open championship window, tanking is a vital tool. It shouldn’t be your everything, but in small doses – with a quality plan in place to see it through to the end – it can mean the world.

In that respect, I’ll always be in favor of tanking. Young, hotshot draft prospects are always going to be more exciting than over-the-hill, overpaid former all stars. Building from the ground up – and succeeding with your own homegrown guys – is the most satisfying experience for a sports fan. Oh sure, I’ll take a championship any way I can get it. But, it’s not about AH championship. It’s about many years of championship contention. It’s being the next dynasty. It’s winning now and forever until the end of time. And when the end comes, blowing it up and starting all over with a new crop of high draft picks!

The Bottom Third Of The Mariners’ Lineup Looks Absolutely Atrocious

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At some point, I’m going to hop on here and talk about all the ways this thing can fall apart for the Mariners. There’s a number of hitters who could easily take steps back for one reason or another, our starting pitching was unsustainably healthy last year, and our bullpen has been remarkably fortunate and could fall apart for no good reason whatsoever outside of sheer randomness.

Today’s not going to be that day. See, a lot of that is just me being overly worried. We finally broke back into the playoffs, and now it feels like we’re due for a setback. Expectations are through the roof, which is always when the Mariners let us down the most. You can set your watch to it. On paper, most experts agree this is a team that should once again contend for a wild card spot. So, you really have to dig deep to magnify the flaws on this roster to the point where we fall on our faces.

That being said, I don’t think it takes very much digging whatsoever to point out that the bottom three hitters projected to play regularly heading into April are going to drag this team down with them.

If we choose to look on the bright side, there should be six quality hitters in this lineup (eventually, I’ll write a separate post talking about all the flaws among everyone). You have to figure Julio and Raleigh are excellent young players; Ty France is solid when healthy; Suarez has his power and should benefit from less shifting; Teoscar Hernandez is an already-good player who figures to be hyper-motivated as he’s heading into his first stint with free agency; and Wong is a veteran bat who should be fine as long as he’s healthy.

Just because those are the six hitters I think will be the ones we don’t have to worry about, doesn’t mean I’m right. Any one of those guys could easily suck. Conversely, among the batters I’m about to trash, I think the odds are just as good that one of them surprises us in a positive way. But, for the sake of this post, I think the top six in our lineup is going to be fine, and it’s going to look something like this:

  1. Julio – CF (R)
  2. Wong – 2B (L)
  3. Hernandez – RF (R)
  4. France – 1B (R)
  5. Suarez – 3B (R)
  6. Raleigh – C (S)

Our three weakest spots in the lineup are going to be Short Stop, Left Field, and DH.

We kinda know what we’re going to get with J.P. Crawford at this point. He’s going to get on base a little over 1/3 of the time. That’s fine. He was one of the least shifted-against Mariners the last couple years, so I don’t think he’s going to get much of a boost from the rules changes. He’s streaky. With very little power. So, when his BABIP is good, his slash line will look good. When the balls he hits find gloves, he’s going to look like one of the worst hitters in the league. The only hope for him is that all his offseason work with Driveline has improved his approach at the plate. His elongated swing tends to get exposed by superior pitching, and if that hasn’t been corrected in any sort of meaningful way, it’s only going to lead to more strikeouts and weak contact. At least we don’t need him at the top of the order anymore. Getting to hide him down towards the bottom will take some pressure off, while at the same time give us some speed – if and when he does get on base – for our superior hitters at the top of the lineup.

The left field spot is well-worn territory at this point, but it bears repeating, since we’re banking a big chunk of our season’s hopes on the combination of A.J. Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. What needs to be said about Kelenic that hasn’t already been said? He’s young, and so far he’s been a terrible hitter. He could, obviously, blossom this year with reduced expectations, a spot at the bottom of the order, and the elimination of the shift that has so gobbled up many of his would-be hits. But, the Pollock piece of this remains under-complained about. He was abysmal last year! People have brushed that aside by saying he’s going to play primarily against lefties, but as I’ve said before, lefties only comprise about a quarter of the pitchers in baseball. He’s still going to get his share of at bats against righties, especially if Kelenic struggles (which, odds are he will). Not only that, but given how our bench is shaping up, we could see Pollock and Kelenic in the same lineup (with Pollock being a DH).

Let’s not beat around the bush here, though, because the DH has been a disaster for this team … pretty much since Edgar retired. I’ve already talked about how Dylan Moore is going to factor heavily into this team (cemented by the fact that he just signed a guaranteed contract to buy out his Arb years). Moore probably won’t DH a ton, but he’ll play in the field for guys getting rest days as the DH, so that makes him our de facto DH. I would also wager that Tom Murphy and/or Cal Raleigh will get their share of DH stints (when the other is starting at catcher), to infuse some additional power on occasion. We’ll see what Murphy has left in the tank after a few injury-plagued seasons. Then, there’s Haggerty, who was a fun story last year, but is coming off of an injury that happened towards the very end of our season. He’s also no guarantee to be effective the more the rest of the league gets a book on him. And, as I just wrote about, I don’t know who our 13th position player will be, but Tommy La Stella looks like the odds-on favorite, and he’s fucking garbage.

I don’t want to say that the season hinges on Jarred Kelenic starting to reach his full potential, but that could make all of our lives A LOT easier. There’s a massive black hole in the bottom third of our lineup that figures to be filled with – at best – Replacement Level hitters. But, if Kelenic were to pan out (which, officially I no longer believe will be the case), that could really take our team to new heights. All of a sudden, you’ve got seven quality bats in the lineup, with adequate production out of Crawford, and whatever you get from the DH slot from Moore, Murphy, et al. A competent Kelenic hitting somewhere around .250, hitting 20+ homers, could be all the difference between this team winning 86 games and 96 games. I know the math doesn’t work out from a WAR perspective, but not totally blowing it every time we get to the bottom of the order has a cumulative effect that – if everything else pans out the way we think it should – would make us quite formidable. You get no innings off with a lineup like that. Combined with our elite pitching, it could very well put us in line to compete for the division.

However, if Kelenic continues to let us down, and the rest of these guys can’t get out of their own way, it’s going to take everything we have just to remain in contention through the trade deadline. Where I’m assuming we’re going to need an impact bat, if we want to get back to the playoffs.

It’s just too bad we didn’t get that bat heading into the season, when all of this was blatantly obvious to anyone with eyes.

Who Will Be The Mariners’ 13th Man?

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Are rosters still comprised of 26 players in Major League Baseball? Or are they cutting it back down to 25? I can’t really keep track of all these little details anymore. But, I do know there’s a limit on the number of pitchers you can carry, and that you have to have 13 position players at a minimum. Seems a LITTLE idiotic, but there’s so much to complain about when it comes to the rules of baseball, I’m not going to get bent out of shape about teams having an extra bench spot here and there.

As has been reported of late, the Mariners are pretty well set for the majority of their position player spots, becoming even more certain based on Taylor Trammell’s recent hamate bone injury that’s going to keep him out the entirety of Spring Training. He will almost certainly start the regular season down in Tacoma, giving the M’s one less guy to compete for that final active roster spot.

Catchers: Cal Raleigh, Tom Murphy.

Infield: Eugenio Suarez, J.P. Crawford, Kolten Wong, Ty France.

Outfield: Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, A.J. Pollock.

Platoon/Backups: Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty.

There’s 12 guys right there, pretty well set. Kelenic still has an option, so if he completely shits the bed in Spring Training, maybe he starts out in Tacoma, but I think that’s a very remote possibility. That leaves one other spot, and by my calculations only three realistic guys – currently on our 40-man – to compete for it.

Moore can play every spot on the infield AND the outfield. Haggerty can backup anywhere in the outfield and – in a pinch – can go in there at first, second, or third base. So, you can go into this 13th roster spot taking the Best Player Available, in a sense. You don’t need to worry about filling a specific hole. The outfield defense is well covered, and the infield defense is covered enough to at least get you through an emergency situation (if you were to lose two or more guys).

The three guys remaining are Tommy La Stella, Cade Marlowe, and Evan White.

The simplest and easiest answer to this question is Tommy La Stella. He’s a veteran who has experience all around the infield (save short stop) and is currently listed as a designated hitter. He’s a 34 year old veteran who has the feel of a Replacement Level hitter (if all goes well) from the left side of the plate. He’s not much of a power guy, though, so you’re bringing him in for a veteran presence and his eye at the plate. Combine that with the fact that the Mariners have options for both White and Marlowe, it’s kind of a no brainer. Let them both play every day in Tacoma, get their reps up, and call them back to Seattle if/when a need arises. It’s baseball, there are 162 games, there will eventually be a need, if not sooner, then later.

But, that’s not what anybody wants. La Stella feels like camp fodder. He’s earning $720K, which is all guaranteed, but also isn’t very much money in baseball terms. I would assume the Mariners want someone else to take this spot, but given the inherent roster flexibility with the two younger players, they’re really going to have to blow the team away this spring.

Marlowe is an interesting case, because with Trammell out, he’s the de facto “competition” for Kelenic in that platoon spot in left field. Marlowe has rocketed up the minor leagues over the last two years – playing most of 2022 in AA before getting called up to AAA for 13 games – and there’s certainly a believable scenario where he beats out Kelenic in the platoon battle, given his incredible speed, base-stealing ability (he swiped 42 bags between the two minor league levels last year), and on-base ability. At that point, it would be a battle between Kelenic and La Stella for the final bench spot, and maybe Kelenic beats him out (or maybe the team wants to preserve Kelenic’s final option year, just in case).

My hunch is, the least likely person to win the final roster spot out of Spring Training is Evan White. He’s just been too banged up the last couple years, and I have to imagine the team wants him down in Tacoma playing every day (and maybe getting cross-trained at multiple positions, to increase his value to the team). That being said, assuming White is fully healthy and stays that way, I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets called up. Even if it’s not as an injury replacement, I think his bat will be desperately needed once the month of May rolls around.

That’s all I’m giving La Stella. I imagine we’ll give him every opportunity to win the final spot in Spring Training. I imagine he’ll get regular at bats as our primary DH (when we’re not rotating quasi-rest days for the other starters), and I think it’s all but guaranteed that he’s totally washed as a Major League player. After a month or so, the team will opt to move on, and if all goes according to plan, Evan White will be the first player called up to take his place. That’ll allow him and Ty France to bounce back and forth – giving France the regular DH days he needs to stay fresh throughout the year – and hopefully provide some additional pop in a lineup that could surely use it.

It’ll also be interesting to see if White gets some work in left field. I only have a tiny bit more confidence in A.J. Pollock’s abilities to succeed in a Mariners uniform, so it would be VERY interesting to me if we one day see an Evan White/Jarred Kelenic platoon in left. Two highly-regarded former prospects giving it a go to try to salvage their careers here (one who signed the early extension to buy out his Arbitration years, the other who spurned such an offer, probably costing himself untold millions of dollars in the process).