Tag Archives: Aaron Rodgers

Predicting The 2023 NFL Season

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Guess who’s back! Back again! The NFL prediction post is the one that’s back again. Here are the prior years I’ve done it:

Last year, I was just BRUTALLY awful. Bills over Packers in the Super Bowl, let’s just start there, because believe me, it gets worse. I had Denver and the Colts as division champions. I had the Giants and Seahawks as among the four worst teams in football; I also had the Jags coming in last in their division.

Turn the page! On to the next! Let’s flush 2022 and get back on the winning train. Here are my predictions for the entire NFL:

NFC East

  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • New York Giants
  • Washington Commanders

I made this mistake – picking the Cowboys over the Eagles – last year, but I’m running it back because I think Dallas is really good on both sides of the ball. I think Dak has a bounce-back season in him (I’m banking one of my fantasy team’s fortunes on this), and I think they win one more than Philly in a Super Bowl Hangover season. I don’t know if I like the Giants to repeat as wild card teams, and I actually lowkey believe in Washington keeping things close with New York

NFC North

  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Detroit Lions
  • Chicago Bears

I think most people are penciling in the Lions as division champs – based on how they finished 2022 – but I’m not buying it. They MIGHT be able to squeak into the playoffs, but we’ll see. I like the Vikings; I think they’re underrated. I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate in close games as they were last year, but even if they regress down to 10 wins or so, I think that’s enough to win the division. My big reach is the Packers overtaking the Lions behind Jordan Love and a solid defense. I think the Bears are – at best – a year away.

NFC South

  • New Orleans Saints
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I like the Saints to win this at 9-8; very mediocre. I think the Falcons might get to 7-8 wins at best. I think the Panthers will be better than people expect (many are expecting them to be among the worst teams in football), but they’ll come on too late to make an impact. I think the Bucs will legitimately be among the four worst teams in football.

NFC West

  • Seattle Seahawks
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Arizona Cardinals

Fuck it, let’s go! Give me the Seahawks as division champs! Give me the Seahawks as a Top 2 seed! Give me the 49ers settling for the wild card. Give me the Rams being slightly better than expected (6-8 wins). And give me the Cards contending for a top overall draft pick.

AFC East

  • New York Jets
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Buffalo Bills
  • New England Patriots

I had the toughest time with this one, but here’s my rationale. I love the Jets’ defense. I know the popular pick is for the offense to underperform behind Aaron Rodgers, but I think he has enough in the tank to give them one good season; they also shouldn’t need to score a ton to get there. With the talent they have at the skill positions, I think that’ll be more than enough to compensate for a potentially-shaky O-Line. I’m putting my eggs in the basket that Tua will stay healthy and that Miami offense will do some work. I think Buffalo’s defense is shaky as hell, and we’ll see some regression out of an offense that relies too much on Josh Allen. For what it’s worth, I think the Pats’ defense is among the best in football, and they’ll be involved in a lot of low-scoring games where they still manage to win 8-9 games.

AFC North

  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Baltimore Ravens

I just think the Bengals are the whole package. I love the Steelers’ defense and think Pickett takes a big step in his development. The Browns have a lot of talent, but I’m not so sure they’ve got enough at the quarterback spot to overtake the top two teams. And, sort of by default, I think the Ravens struggle.

AFC South

  • Tennessee Titans
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Houston Texans
  • Indianapolis Colts

I want one last ride with the Titans: great coaching, good-enough defense, so-so quarterback play, and one final monster year from Derrick Henry. I think the Jags are also right there and will nab one of the wild card spots. Houston and Indy will be among the bottom-feeders in football

AFC West

  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Denver Broncos
  • Las Vegas Raiders

I’m not super high on the Chiefs to repeat as champions, but I think they’re the best of an otherwise Just Okay division. The Chargers will probably be among the first ones out of the playoffs. I think Denver will be slightly improved, but I also think Russell Wilson is finished as a premiere quarterback. And I think the Raiders are a mess.

NFC Playoffs

  1. Dallas Cowboys
  2. Seattle Seahawks
  3. Minnesota Vikings
  4. New Orleans Saints
  5. Philadelphia Eagles
  6. San Francisco 49ers
  7. Green Bay Packers

AFC Playoffs

  1. Cincinnati Bengals
  2. New York Jets
  3. Kansas City Chiefs
  4. Tennessee Titans
  5. Miami Dolphins
  6. Jacksonville Jaguars
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers

Wild Card Round

  • Seahawks over Packers
  • 49ers over Vikings
  • Eagles over Saints
  • Jets over Steelers
  • Chiefs over Jaguars
  • Dolphins over Titans

Divisional Round

  • Cowboys over 49ers
  • Seahawks over Eagles
  • Bengals over Dolphins
  • Chiefs over Jets

Championship Round

  • Cowboys over Seahawks
  • Bengals over Chiefs

Super Bowl

  • Bengals over Cowboys

Probably a little too high on the Seahawks. Probably a little too low on the 49ers. Almost certainly too high on the Cowboys. Might be a mistake dismissing the Bills the way I did. We’ll see! I don’t feel great about any of it, other than the Bengals. For whatever reason, I really like Cincy this year (almost certainly the kiss of death!).

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2023: Draft Results May Vary

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I completed three fantasy football drafts in about an 80-hour span; is it possible to feel terrible about every single one of them?

Before we dive into my Dyntasy League 5-round draft, I’ll talk a little bit about my other two teams, as I seem to have stumbled into a couple of different strategies without even trying.

Every draft is different. You never know where you’re going to land in any given draft (assuming it’s randomly selected for you), you never know who’s going to be available (who people reach for, or who people steal from you at the last moment), and so you can go into a draft with one plan, but circumstances force you to go another way.

I try to be adaptable. I’m just looking for as many good players as possible. If it comes down to one of two guys, I’ll simply take the player I want to root for more. And I definitely tend to skew towards younger players, especially at running back and wide receiver.

Yet, I think I have two wildly different teams! To wit, the True League, and my team, RUM HAM:

  • Jalen Hurts (QB)
  • Aaron Rodgers (QB)
  • James Conner (RB)
  • Dalvin Cook (RB)
  • Breece Hall (RB)
  • Elijah Mitchell (RB)
  • Jonathan Taylor (RB)
  • Jahan Dotson (WR)
  • Treylon Burks (WR)
  • Zay Flowers (WR)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
  • Cooper Kupp (WR)
  • Jameson Williams (WR)
  • Travis Kelce (TE)
  • Kicker TBD
  • New York Jets (DEF)

There’s injury concerns (Conner, Hall, Mitchell, Taylor, Kupp), there’s age concerns (Rodgers, Kelce, Conner again), and then there’s just an endless array of first- and second-year players (Hall, Dotson, Burks, Flowers, JSN, Williams). This is more of a standard scoring league, with half-PPR I believe, but I don’t know if I have enough TD-power to cut the mustard. Will Taylor return to playing football this season? How bad is Kupp’s injury? How many games will I get out of Conner? When will Hall have his inevitable set-back? Will I be able to hold onto Williams through his entire 6-week suspension?

There’s a lot of questions swirling around my team. On the one end of the spectrum of possibilities, I’ll be spending every week scrambling to field a healthy team, constantly worried about and second-guessing injury reports. On the other end, my hurt guys get healthy, and I’m able to field a juggernaut by season’s end that will take me all the way to the championship. High variance, high reward!

Also, I should say, I do like Dotson and Burks more than most. And, really, the Cardinals ONLY have Conner, so he should feast as the only dude on that offense.

Now, here’s my other team, The Annexation Of Puerto Rico, in my beloved Splinter League:

  • Josh Allen (QB)
  • Dak Prescott (QB)
  • Matthew Stafford (QB)
  • Bijan Robinson (RB)
  • Rachaad White (RB)
  • Tyler Allgeier (RB)
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
  • Tee Higgins (WR)
  • Christian Kirk (WR)
  • George Pickens (WR)
  • Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
  • Treylon Burks (WR)
  • Jameson Williams (WR)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (DEF)

On the flipside, not a lot of injury issues here, at least out of the gate. But, I also don’t have the glut of running backs to pull from in a pinch. Thankfully, I have the Falcons guys to fall back on, but if White is a bust, I’m kind of screwed.

In the True League, I had the fifth pick in the draft. After the usual suspects went 1-4, I made Kelce my top overall pick. By contrast, in the Splinter League, I had the second pick. Last year, I won it all by having the 10th pick, so this was a VASTLY different experience for me. My Splinter League is even more quarterback-crazy (2 QB league, 1 point per 15 passing yards, 6-point TDs, -4 INTs), and I’m happy to say I got to take Josh Allen for the first time ever. That’s a recipe for him having an uncharacteristically-down year if I’ve ever heard one!

Anyway, I guess we’ll see. I should point out that in the True League, I got an A+ grade by Yahoo, second overall in the league. And, in the Splinter League, I also got an A+ grade, first overall. Will that mean anything? We’ll see. I had a high grade last year in Splinter as well, and ended up winning the whole thing. But, there’s a lot that goes into a championship season; you need to get extremely lucky along the way.

In my Dynasty League, my team – Fight The Mattriarchy! – got a D grade, 8th out of 10 teams. Since everyone’s 10 keepers get slotted randomly into the draft rounds 1-10, I don’t know how much of that grade is outside of my control. But, with the way AI has been trending, I think Yahoo is probably able to take a global view of every team’s quality and depth of players and make an honest assessment. I mean, I’ve been kind of bottom-feeding for a while now; maybe my keepers aren’t up to snuff.

I wrote about my dilemma last week, so you can read that HERE. That link will also tell you who my keepers were. Without further ado, let’s talk about my 5-round draft! Or, rather, my 3-round/5-person draft.

As expected, the two rookie running backs went 1 and 2 (Bijan and Jahmyr Gibbs). That left one guy standing between me and the quarterback of my dreams/nightmares. He ended up taking Anthony Richardson, which left me no choice but to take Bryce Young. Here’s hoping that #1 overall NFL draft pedigree accounts for something!

By the time I selected with my second pick in the first round, I sadly missed out on re-acquiring D.K. Metcalf, who went two picks earlier. I also missed out on Joe Mixon, C.J. Stroud, Calvin Ridley, and Daniel Jones. So, I made my pick, and I made it Kirk Cousins.

He was already on my radar as a potential pick at #4, because I’ve got Fields and Love, so why not have a little leeway in case of injuries or ineffectiveness? Now, I get to have both my cake and eating it too! I get my rookie lottery ticket, AND I get the veteran who’s mostly good, but occasionally terrible when you least can afford it. I’m not saying I love having Cousins on my team; I’m just saying he should be better than Young and Love, at least in the early going.

I’M FIELDING A FANTASY TEAM WITH TWO COMPETENT QUARTERBACKS IF IT FUCKING KILLS ME!

The second round went pretty well for me: JSN, Sam Howell, and Isiah Pacheco with the top three. I had pretty much my pick of the rookie receivers, and opted to go with the guy from the Vikings, Jordan Addison. I would’ve taken him even if I didn’t have Cousins, but I love having them both, for obvious Double Touchdown reasons! The rest of the second round went Miles Sanders, James Cook, Dotson, Mac Jones, and Mike Williams before I selected again. I would’ve only wanted Dotson, or MAYBE Cook, out of that group. I’ve had Mac Jones for the last couple seasons, and good riddance!

With my second pick in the second round, I got to FINALLY draft Scary Terry McLaurin! I’ve wanted him since he was a rookie, but he was snagged out from under me. Having him fall to me couldn’t have gone better; I’m very happy with my receiver depth now!

Finally, the third round went like this: Dalton Kincaid, Christian Kirk, and Aiyuk. That left me with Dalvin Cook as my final draft pick of the evening. I don’t love him as a long-term prospect, but early on he should get the bulk of the carries as Hall returns from his injury. Cook is also insurance against Alexander Mattison, in the event a starter’s load doesn’t suit him well. As long as Cook stays healthy, Aaron Rodgers is going to want him in there, and that offense should have enough meat on the bone for all their stars, including Cook for an occasional TD. Who’s to say Cook couldn’t be the Ezekiel Elliott in this offense, vulturing touchdowns left and right?!

For Week 1, I’m starting Fields & Cousins, Lamb & Watson, Walker & Pollard, Hockenson & Cook (though, I may put McLaurin in there as a last-minute replacement, if it looks like he’s fully healthy, because that Arizona defense looks like straight garbage).

We’ll see how it all goes! I’ll be on here every week lamenting my losses and celebrating my victories.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2023: Anthony Richardson vs. Bryce Young vs. ???

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Our draft in my dynasty league is this Friday, September 1st, and so much is hinging on what happens in these five rounds. Rookies, players left over from last year; playing for this year while keeping an eye towards the future. It’s a lot to grapple with!

For those unaware of how this league operates, I ask you, why are you reading this? You don’t want to hear about my fantasy team! Nobody wants to hear about anyone’s fantasy team! But, if you’re interested in continuing, here’s the jist: this is a 2-QB PPR league with adjusted scoring to make quarterbacks more important (6-point TDs, 1 point per 20 yards passing, -4 points for INTs). Every team keeps 10 players, one per position, with one regular flex. Here’s the roster I kept:

  • Justin Fields (QB)
  • Jordan Love (QB)
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  • Christian Watson (WR)
  • Tony Pollard (RB)
  • Kenneth Walker (RB)
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE)
  • Alexander Mattison (RB)
  • Evan McPherson (K)
  • N.Y. Jets (DEF)

I had one decision to agonize over, and that was leaving D.K. Metcalf off of my team. For starters, he was a prior trade acquisition of mine, so part of me feels like I gave up a lot to get him, and then threw him away for nothing. Granted, I don’t remember what it cost to bring him to my team, but I remember it being somewhat significant. It more or less came down to Metcalf vs. Watson. I was committed to keeping three running backs, especially when Dalvin Cook was released by the Vikings and Mattison was there to pick up all those extra snaps. Now, Mattison might be mediocre, and he might get hurt or eventually lose his starting job. But, I couldn’t resist keeping a bona fide lead running back in a high-powered offense.

The Watson vs. Metcalf debate might haunt me all season long, though. My rationale for only keeping two receivers is simple: you can always find a quality receiver late in the draft or in free agency during the season. It’s how I got Watson in the first place. I like Watson’s upside as the #1 receiver with relatively little competition from any other Packer; whereas Metcalf has to contend with Lockett and Smith-Njigba and a quarterback who likes to spread the ball around. The obvious downside is the fact that Metcalf is a proven 1,000-yard receiver, who’s going to get the lion’s share of attention in red zone situations (and, not for nothing, but he’s also got big play abilities to score from anywhere on the field). Watson is a second year player, catching balls from a quarterback in his first year as the starter. He could be a total bust! But, the big plays he was making, and his pedigree out of the draft last year, made him intriguing. You don’t win fantasy football leagues on intriguing players, I get that. But, ultimately, I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to have both Love and Watson on my team. Double touchdowns!

In lesser decision-making news, I decided to keep Love over both Stafford (old, injured last year, on a terrible team) and Mac Jones (might be good for a bounce-back under better offensive coaching, but I’ll have to see it to believe it), going for upside.

As has been the case for the last half-decade, if not longer, Quarterback is my weakest position. In a league where quarterbacks are – again – the most important position. The difference here is that I feel like I finally have someone viable in Justin Fields. If he stays healthy, he’s a strong bet to turn into a Jalen Hurts type. If that’s the case, with the rest of my team looking pretty strong, that means I need to focus on the second quarterback spot.

I’m drafting fourth this year. I also have extra picks in the first two rounds (in a deal made last season), while having given up my picks in the final two rounds. So, every team drafts their bench, essentially. Five rounds for five spots (or, in my case, three rounds for five spots).

I have it on reasonably-good authority that both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs will be selected ahead of me. These could be lies, of course. Competitors gaining an edge by throwing me off the scent. But, I know for a fact that one of the teams has two loaded quarterbacks and has no need to take another rookie. So, even if the other guy goes rogue and both Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young are gone by the time I select, then I have no problem whatsoever grabbing Gibbs and further bolstering my running back stable.

Based on the information I have, and knowing who the #3 pick has at quarterback heading into the draft (Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr), I am reasonably sure he’s 1,000% taking a quarterback.

There’s one interesting wrinkle to this debate, and that’s the fact that Kirk Cousins is available as well. Of the quarterbacks not kept by teams from last year, the top holdovers are Cousins, Stafford, Daniel Jones, Sam Howell, and then the likes of Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and Desmond Ridder. So, the quality is falling FAST. If #3 is looking to play for this year, and wants a safe, pro-ready option to gobble a lot of points, he could very well roll with Cousins and take his chances. If you believe Aaron Rodgers is destined for a bounce-back, on a new team, with a familiar coordinator, and a stable of studs at the skill positions around him, then you could do a lot worse choosing between Carr and Cousins every week based on matchups. I like the rest of #3’s team, so he could definitely make that work and ride it into the playoffs.

My take on this year’s rookies is pretty well set in my mind. For fantasy purposes, I think Anthony Richardson is the clear top dog. I think Bryce Young is the safest bet, even though he’s too short and doesn’t run and has no weapons and a suspect O-Line (for what it’s worth, I think they all have suspect O-Lines). And I think C.J. Stroud is the worst of the three, in the worst situation (even worse weapons, with a first time head coach who might be bad at the job, in an organization that has no idea what it’s doing). I was never taking C.J. Stroud, even if the other two guys were taken ahead of me; he’s off all my draft boards (so, knowing me, maybe bet the farm on Stroud being a Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done).

They all have drawbacks, of course. I think the hype train is a little too inflated for Richardson. He’s getting A LOT of Josh Allen comparisons. But, Josh Allens don’t grow on trees! He’s kind of a unicorn. Most quarterbacks don’t improve their completion percentages that significantly from the college to the pros. With Richardson, obviously he’s projected to be a points hog because he runs so well. And now it appears the Colts won’t have any competition for him, if they ultimately trade Jonathan Taylor (or he holds out). But, the downside is, his value is mitigated if he can’t also throw for touchdowns, or worse, if he throws a lot of interceptions (the -4 for INTs is the great equalizer in our league, and should be standard for all fantasy football leagues). Also, on a personal level, do I really want both Fields and Richardson? Two guys who run a lot, can’t throw, and are one big hit away from sinking my season?

If I were to talk myself into Bryce Young, I’d talk about his leadership, his poise, his intangibles. He’s also very accurate and he’s a winner. There’s a reason why he was the #1 pick in the NFL. Young really bridges the gap for me when it comes to being ready THIS season. Richardson might have more upside, and a higher longterm outlook for fantasy purposes. But, if I want to win THIS year? Young might be the better way to go.

My second pick in the first round isn’t until the very end, at number 10. I highly doubt Cousins will be there for me in this scenario. But, I don’t want to throw all my eggs in the Cousins basket for this year at pick 4, because he’s 35 years old, he’s on the final year of his deal, and I have no idea where he’ll be going forward. Also, it’s never fun to have to rely on Cousins; he takes a dump at the most inopportune times!

Once I have my quarterback locked in at 4, I need to scramble and get a receiver at 10. Because if I wait until the second round, it might be too late. My secret hope is that D.K. Metcalf is still there at 10, but that might be a longshot. How confident am I in Calvin Ridley? Yeesh. That’s either going to work out spectacularly or blow up in my face. I’ve always wanted Scary Terry McLaurin, and he’s out there again for me!

Of the rookie receivers, I dunno. JSN is probably the most talented, but not in a situation to showcase his talents. Do I want to trust a receiver for the Ravens? Or the third receiver on the Chargers? Or the #2 to Justin Jefferson’s #1? I wouldn’t mind terribly seeing who’s left over of those four, and taking that guy in the second round.

Then, it’s just Best Player Available. Don’t have to worry about kickers. I could always look into keeping a second defense, though I like the Jets a lot and they don’t have a BYE until Week 7. We’ll see. A lot riding on this one! I’ve been in rebuild mode for the last 3-4 years; now it’s time to see if I can take that next step.

I’m Having A Hard Time Getting Excited For Football Right Now

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This SHOULD be the perfect scenario to get me super pumped for football. We had another down college basketball season; hockey was fun, but in a Just Glad To Be There sort of way when it came to a middling playoff run; and the Mariners are obviously in the midst of yet another in a long line of disappointing seasons (save one) over the last couple decades.

When it’s late-July and baseball is going nowhere, downtrodden Seattle sports fans turn their sights to the impending football season, and all the possibilities therein. But, not me.

I don’t know what it is. Maybe the Mariners play a part in that, in how far below expectations they’ve landed, sucking all of our collective wills to live. There’s a case to be made to have high expectations for both the Seahawks and Huskies. The Seahawks are coming off of an unlikely playoff appearance, they’re coming off of back-to-back potentially-elite draft classes, the dark cloud of the previous era of Seahawks football came to a close with Russell Wilson playing in Denver now. Vibes are high! Now, take the Huskies; they’re coming off of an unlikely bowl game victory, and an even unlikelier double digit-win season. That came on the heels of the team totally falling apart, and the death knell of the Chris Petersen-to-Jimmy Lake Era that had once achieved soaring heights. With most of our important players returning, vibes are even higher on Montlake!

It’s not hard to remember when our expectations were as mammoth; see: the 2023 Mariners.

Now remember that we’re Seattle sports fans, and Seattle is Sports Hell. It’s not Sports Hell because all our teams are miserable all the damn time. It’s so much more than that! We’re in Sports Hell because of this very scenaro. Because our teams do – occasionally – see expectations raised. And THAT’S when our teams choose to fall on their fucking faces.

We have decades upon decades full of experience in this arena. And exactly three championships for our efforts, between the Supersonics, Seahawks, Mariners, and Husky basketball & football teams. In my 42 years of existence – since I’ve been rooting for these respective teams – I’ve only gotten to witness the one (Super Bowl XLVIII), since I wasn’t a Husky fan in the early 90’s. That’s a lotta heartbreak.

I’ve seen a lot of good-not-great teams in my lifetime. The Sonics of the entire 1990’s, the Mariners of the mid 90’s, the turn-of-the-century Mariners (who were a very different beast entirely), the Holmgren Era Seahawks, the Romar Era Huskies, the Legion Of Boom, the Chris Peterson Huskies, the Post-LOB Seahawks, and this current era of Mariners baseball. There’s a lot of great memories sprinkled throughout, but one main throughline: they all fell short of ultimate glory, save one.

I’ve discussed this topic quite a bit on my blog throughout the years. It’s all a matter of perspective. If I was able to just enjoy the journey, take these teams for what they are, and accept the fact that we can’t always win it all, then I’m sure I’d be a lot happier. But, how do you enjoy the 2023 Mariners, when you know this team is underachieving, and we all expected them to be better than they are? This team was supposed to win 90+ games in the regular season and really make a dent in the playoffs; instead, they’re struggling to get to 81 wins, and will almost certainly not reach the post-season. And, as such, now we go into 2024 with more questions than answers. We go into 2024 with more holes than we thought we’d have, and an apparent lack of opportunities and willingness to do what it takes to fill those holes.

I guess the answer to that question is: don’t have expectations going in. If I had zero expectations for the 2023 Mariners, then maybe I could appreciate a .500 team that’s still kinda/sorta in it, and hold out hope that they’ll figure something out in the next two months to eke their way into the playoffs.

But, that’s not how I’m wired. That’s how a fairweather fan thinks, or a complete non-fan. My fiancé could do that, because she isn’t saddled with the burden of following these teams, and has zero interest in them outside of the fact that I have interest, and she enjoys my company enough to care about what I care about.

I can’t go into this football season with no expectations. I see the 2023 Seahawks and I see a team on the rise. I see a lot of talented youths with potential for greatness. I see a division and an NFC that’s up for grabs, and I see us as a potential dark horse.

Then, I see the 2023 Huskies and I see a team that’s there! That’s a legitimate contender for the Pac-12 crown, and if they play their cards right, maybe even a berth in the college football playoffs.

In total, I see two football teams where you don’t necessarily have to squint very hard to see them going pretty far. Just as I saw a certain Mariners team, in the very same light.

So, how could my favorite football teams Mariners things up this season?

Well, the Huskies might just be God-awful on defense, particularly in the secondary and linebacker units. They might need to score a ton on offense every single week, which means they’d have to be damn near perfect on an efficiency standpoint. What if Michael Penix doesn’t even remotely resemble a Heisman Trophy candidate? What if the O-Line doesn’t hold up? What if we get bitten by the injury bug or bad fumble luck? What if we simply lose two fucking conference games and it knocks us out of the conference race entirely? It doesn’t take a whole helluva lot to ruin a college football team with high expectations. Two Pac-12 defeats, that’d do it. We always lose at least one dumb bullshit game against some fucking annoyingly shitty Arizona or Bay Area school with an 8pm start time. Do that, and lose to a legitimately good team, and there you have it: season ruined.

It’s a lot easier to see how the Seahawks could fuck up.

The Seahawks might just be God-awful on defense, particularly in the D-Line and linebacker units. There’s also a decent chance Geno Smith doesn’t survive the entire 17-game season, meaning we’ll have to endure Drew Lock in games that count. But, even if Geno manages to stay healthy, is he really the guy who’s going to lead us to a division title and a deep playoff run? Behind an extremely inexperienced O-Line? The 49ers are still pretty fucking good, even with their injury question marks at quarterback. The Eagles should still make some noise. The rest of the NFC East is nothing to sneeze at, and the Vikings figure to win a lot of games again. Then, you have to factor in how the Seahawks continually get off to slow starts to the regular season under Pete Carroll. It’s a lot to overcome.

I’ll admit, my expectations for the Seahawks aren’t nearly as high as they are for the Huskies. But, I can already feel the homer in me yearning to believe big. He knows that if we can keep this team mostly healthy, they’ll really surprise the rest of the league! Homer Steven is a simpleton like that. He’ll believe anything! So, I’m bound to be disappointed when the Seahawks are just another wild card team losing in the first round again. Or, God forbid, another Seahawks team that failed to make the playoffs entirely (but also wasn’t bad enough to get a Top 10 pick out of the deal).

So, yeah, I figure to have a lot of disappointing moments this fall. And, when I’m not disappointed, I’ll just be dreading the impending disappointment I know is right around the corner. This is the year where my regular football fandom meets my fantasy football fandom.

Speaking of which, I’m coming off of one league championship in my Splinter League, so anything short of a repeat performance is bound to be a letdown. And, in my Dynasty League, so much has gone right for me this offseason, I don’t even know where to begin.

For starters, the Cowboys finally cut Ezekiel Elliott. I have Tony Pollard as the unquestioned lead back. Then, the Vikings cut Dalvin Cook; I have Alexander Mattison. And, the coup de grace, since my Dynasty team has struggled with shabby quarterback play for the last decade, I’m actually not dreading my two guys. Justin Fields – when healthy – gobbles up points with his legs; his experience last year should hopefully propel him into better results through the air. Then, with Rodgers being traded to the Jets, I get to hang onto Jordan Love and see what he’s made of. If they both pan out, I’ve got two QBs locked and loaded for the next half decade. With the way the rest of my team shakes out, I’m not desperate to fill any particular need; I can truly take the Best Player Available in the draft to fill out my bench, and my team should be all the better for it.

Except, of course, we know that’s not how it actually works. My quarterbacks will probably stink and/or get hurt. The rest of my roster will underperform. I’ll play against a lot of fantasy teams going on their best weeks. And, even the weeks I’m victorious, I’ll just dread the following week all the more, because that’s how fantasy football works. It’s a neverending hellscape of frustration.

If I wasn’t getting married and going on a honeymoon this fall, I don’t know WHAT I would be looking forward to! But, it sure as shit isn’t this football season. That I’ll be watching with my hands covering my face, one eye peeking in between a set of fingers, ready for the next nut punch to come my way.

Is Geno Smith A Top 10 Quarterback In 2023?

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There’s a lot of Top 10 lists being thrown around nowadays when it comes to the NFL. You know, it’s still pre pre-season, most of the important free agents have signed with teams, and there just isn’t much going on. The calm before the storm, if you will.

So, to get everyone all riled up, media outlets create fake outrage (in the absence of legitimate outrage, which will surely be coming, if it isn’t already here – NFL running backs being underpaid and whatnot) to get everyone talking about football. It’s how we keep the NFL on the front of everyone’s mind 24/7/365.

They’ve been doing this series of Top 10 lists by position group, and save D.K. Metcalf (I think), the Seahawks can’t seem to buy any representation. Hell, even Pete Carroll can’t get a Top 10 nod, being ranked behind the likes of Brian Daboll, Kyle Shanahan, among other coaches who don’t have the resume Pete has. Other than PFF being responsible for that head coach list, I don’t really know where these are coming from. Is it ESPN? NFL.com? Other? I don’t really care.

Other than the head coaching thing, I kind of understand why the Seahawks aren’t among the Top 10 in anything. Outside of D.K., who is our biggest star? I would argue our very best players are so young, they haven’t had a chance to really prove themselves. There’s a variety of rookies from the last couple drafts (including 2023) who I believe will turn into studs, if they aren’t there already. So, you know what? Disrespect them now! Put another chip on their shoulders! I read on Twitter that the Seahawks were iced out of the top 32 in NFL offensive tackles; great! Stupendous! Charles Cross and Abe Lucas see that, and they’re coming for you!

But, if anyone might have a gripe, I think it’s Geno Smith. I think he might be a Top 10 quarterback, and he’s being summarily dismissed once again in the eyes of the know-it-all pundits.

Not all of them. There are always contrarians out there willing to go to bat for Geno. But, it’s weird just the same.

We’re not making a case for All Time Top 10. We’re just talking about the Top 10 quarterbacks heading into 2023. It’s a prediction, based on last year’s production, and what you think is possible for this year.

The usual suspects round out the very top of this list: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert. On the next tier down, I think you can make an argument for Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and even Aaron Rodgers; they all have flaws, but I think they have to be in the conversation just the same.

And I would put Geno Smith squarely in that group in the second tier.

So, we’re locking in the Top 5, in some order: Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Herbert. What about the next five?

Well, I think you have to consider the very real injury risks coming with the likes of Tua, Dak, Lamar, and Stafford. Stafford’s arm is about to fall off, plus the talent around him is depleted. Even if he plays in 2023, I don’t think he’ll be better than Geno. When you take away the Dak injury, he was still wildly inconsistent, and good for at least a mistake a game that might cost ’em. At this point, the bloom is off the rose and I don’t think I would rank him over Geno. Lamar, as a running quarterback, is taking a massive amount of hits over the average pocket passer or scrambler. He isn’t the smartest about avoiding contact, and frankly he’s not the passer that Geno is. Other than Mark Andrews, who is he throwing to? Now that he’s been given the massive contract he was looking for, will he be as motivated? I have a lot of doubts about Lamar, most of all: is he a winner? In the regular season, sure, but I think I’d rather have Geno in a playoff game, all things considered. And, we all know what’s going on with Tua. He’s legit elite in that offense, and could be a Top 5 QB when healthy. But, one more big hit to the head might end his career. No thanks.

Aaron Rodgers is an interesting case here. He definitely wasn’t a Top 10 quarterback in 2022; he was legitimately bad! A lot of that, I’m sure, had to do with the loss of Davante Adams, though it’s concerning because great QBs are supposed to elevate the talent around them. I just think A-Rod was done with Green Bay prior to last season, but they couldn’t move him for a variety of reasons, so they had to eat a sub-par year out of him before sending him on his way. Rodgers has elite receivers in New York. Presumably, the O-Line will be fine, though they might also be terrible (which would worry me). More than anything, I wonder if his heart is in it anymore. He’s getting up there. He’s got a world of interests outside of football. He spent a significant portion of this offseason contemplating whether or not he would play again. And, everyone is already crowning the Jets as the next Super Team, which is always cause for concern. BUT, on the flipside, everyone is already counting Rodgers out. There’s a significant portion of the talking heads out there who are dismissing the Jets for all the reasons I just mentioned. And people are taking every opportunity to clown on Rodgers for his … everything (personality, beliefs, political leanings, etc.). In that respect, part of me wonders if he goes Scorched Earth on the NFL for one more year. I mean, he was just the MVP back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022, so you can’t entirely rule him out.

As for Cousins and Goff, I think there’s enough of a sample for both of them to see where they’re lacking. They play up against the bad teams, but don’t always show up against the good ones. There’s enough mistakes in their game to make them total wild cards on any given week. And, with Trevor Lawrence, last year was really his first with any sort of coaching competence around him. And, in spite of that, Geno still out-performed him in most every major category.

This isn’t to say I think Geno Smith is perfect, or even the best option of all of these Tier 2 guys. He has his own mistake issues. He’ll throw a back-breaking interception, drop a killer fumble, or allow defensive pressure to get the best of him. And he also only has the one season of quality play.

But, Geno was Top 10 in total yards (8th, with 4,282), was 4th in passer rating among quarterbacks who played in at least 13 games, he led the league in completion percentage among qualified passers, he averaged 7.5 yards per attempt (7th in football among QBs who played in at least 13 games), and was one of only 8 quarterbacks who played in all 17 games. He also had the 4th most touchdown passes with 30.

I think in aggregate – based on all of the above – you have to put Geno in the Top 10. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to be there at season’s end. But, knowing what we know now, about him and the rest of the league, when you factor in his ability, the talent and coaching around him, I would put him in the Top 10, and I’m as much of a doubter as anyone.

What If The Seahawks Take A Quarterback With The Fifth Pick?

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This question feels like a waste of time. It feels like clickbait nonsense. When you read it from established journalists/pundits – as opposed to yours truly, who’s writing this in his pajamas in the middle of the afternoon while listening to some #FunkyDiscoHouse – it feels like they’re just parroting what unnamed agents/NFL front offices want them to “leak”, for financial/competitive gains.

When I read about the Seahawks showing interest in the quarterback position at the top of the draft, it seems very disingenuous. That’s what we WANT the rest of the league to believe, so the price to trade into our spot goes up. Or, so teams will leapfrog us, in hopes that one of the bigtime defensive line prospects falls to us. And/or to drive Geno Smith’s price down.

99.9% of me believes it’s bullshit that the Seahawks would select a quarterback with the fifth overall draft pick. I can’t say 100%, because nothing is 100% in the game of football. But, I’m saying it without saying it: the Seahawks are NOT drafting a quarterback fifth overall.

I say that as a fan of the Seahawks who has followed this organization VERY closely through the years.

Can you name the highest-drafted quarterback in the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era? You should, because his name is Russell Wilson, and he was famously taken by us in the third round. We’ve taken exactly one other quarterback in the draft since 2010: Alex McGough in 2018, in the 7th round. That’s a 50% success rate, for those keeping track at home.

The Seahawks have largely been unconventional at the spot over the last 12+ years. The inherited Matt Hasselbeck, they traded for Charlie Whitehurst (a huge bust), they took on Tarvaris Jackson because he was familiar with Darrell Bevell’s system, they made a medium-sized splash on Matt Flynn, and they’ve run through a number of starting busts to sit behind Wilson until we got to Geno and Drew Lock last year battling it out. LOTTA crap there, up to and including Hasselbeck’s last year here (when he was over the hill), outside of hitting the lottery on Russell Wilson.

But, at the same time, there haven’t been those huge swings you see out of most other franchises. Do you know who was the last quarterback we drafted in the first two rounds? The much-maligned Rick Mirer at number two overall, back in 1993. In fact, there’s only one other QB the Seahawks have taken in the first two rounds, and that was Dan McGwire at number 16 in 1991 (when Chuck Knox lobbied hard for Brett Favre). That’s a 0% success rate, for those keeping track at home.

Isn’t that interesting, though? When you think about the Seahawks, you don’t think about us being totally bereft of quarterback talent. But, we’ve been unorthodox at getting our guys. Jim Zorn was an undrafted free agent. Dave Krieg was as well. Warren Moon was a free agent, Matt Hasselbeck was a trade acquisition; those are all the big names, that comprise a significant chunk of the Pre-Wilson Seahawks history.

What’s also interesting – especially going from the Holmgren era through the John Schneider era (both with ties to the Green Bay Packers way of doing things) – is that this organization doesn’t even take a lot of draft fliers the way the Packers model themselves after. We get our franchise quarterback, and we throw whatever scrubs we find off the scrap heap behind him. Now, to be fair, what are we talking about? The Packers have made two high-profile draft picks of Aaron Rodgers (when Favre was still playing at a high level) and Jordan Love (when Rodgers was still playing at a high level); it’s not like they’re actually drafting a new quarterback every season.

But, that’s their reputation, and that’s also the reputation that was foisted upon John Schneider. I don’t know if he buys into that or not. Maybe that was an unfair allegation that was levied against him, since he came from Green Bay. But, regardless, it hasn’t been even remotely his practice since coming here. Not even when you consider this team really could’ve used a little more attention paid to the position!

There are those rumors that he was all in on Patrick Mahomes and/or Josh Allen. That if those guys would’ve fallen to us in their respective draft classes, we would’ve taken one of them even though that was smack in Wilson’s prime. Of course, we’ll never know; it’s easy to plant those stories to make yourself look smart. It’s also easy to plant those stories when you want to drive down the price of your own franchise quarterback in times of contract extension. But, it’s a great What If. What if we traded Wilson back in 2017 and acquired a ton of draft picks at that time? What if we used those picks to select (or trade up for) one of Mahomes or Allen? Wouldn’t that be exciting?!

That’s where you get to the 00.1% chance of the Seahawks taking a quarterback at five. Because to do that, they would have to be SO SURE this guy is the next superstar in this league. Which is what makes all the Anthony Richardson hullabaloo at the combine over the weekend all the more intriguing. He blew the collective minds of everyone watching, with his freakish athleticism, with his interviewing skills, and with his leadership traits. He also apparently had a very positive interview with Pete Carroll (who, as we all remember, had that crazy interaction with D.K. Metcalf before we later took him at the end of the second round).

Would I be excited if the Seahawks took a quarterback at five? You’re damn right I would be! Because I love a surprise out of left field. Because I don’t really want to overpay for Geno Smith’s services. And because I would have to 100% buy in on this guy, since the organization is taking such a huge risk. With our philosophy largely undermining the quarterback spot throughout the years, this would be a HUGE step in the other direction.

Naturally, it depends on who we take at five. I’ll say this, there’s no “sure thing” in this draft. Bryce Young is undersized and slight of frame. Also, I don’t know how much I buy Alabama quarterbacks, after the underwhelming showing of both Mac Jones and Tua (Hurts goes pretty far in turning that tide for me, but he also transferred out of there, and had to find a way to succeed without the crutch of being on the best roster college football has to offer). C.J. Stroud has great accuracy, but lacks a willingness to scramble, and if I don’t trust Bama quarterbacks, I REALLY don’t trust Buckeye QBs. He also had the luxury of being on an elite roster of players, and it’s impossible to tell how someone will react to the real world of the NFL, where there’s significantly more parity.

Richardson is naturally on everyone’s minds – and might excite me more than the other two guys, if only for his potential upside – but he has serious accuracy problems. He also didn’t play much at college and might be a little too reliant on his legs for success at the next level. I know it feels nitpicky – one guy runs too much, the other not enough, what is this a 3 Bears situation? – but that’s the nature of the beast with drafting a quarterback, especially in the upper half of the first round. For every Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, there are dozens of Blake Bortleses. You don’t often get those “sure things”. Most of the time, you get someone with flaws that you hope don’t usher him out of the league as a bust.

But, as I said, if the Seahawks take a quarterback at five, of course I’m going to be excited! What other choice do I have? That being said, if it’s not one of those three guys I just referenced, not only would it be a gargantuan shock, but it would be downright irresponsible. There’s just no one else worthy of that kind of attention.

When Seahawks fans speculate on the team taking a QB, it’s usually in the second or third round; MAYBE with the 20th overall pick (or trade down from 20 and take him later in the first). That feels a little more reasonable. It’s FAR less sexy, but it’s also probably the smarter play. Take a bigger project with less upside and hope to mold him over this season as he rides the pine behind Geno. But, can you imagine how much we’d lose our minds if we were one of those teams to take a quarterback in the top five?! What a thrill!

There Isn’t A Veteran Quarterback On The Market That Interests Me For The Seahawks

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Derek Carr was recently released by the Raiders. It was a pretty great little Fuck You to the organization who abandoned him; he refused to budge one iota in his No Trade Clause, so they couldn’t recoup any value from him whatsoever (outside of the obvious savings of millions upon millions of dollars that would’ve otherwise been fully guaranteed after a certain date). So, throw him onto the pile of available quarterbacks and potentially-available quarterbacks this offseason.

As expected, no one is exciting. We all know the ideal in quarterbacks is a good guy on a rookie deal. But, failing that, you’re kinda looking for a Matthew Stafford type. Someone with talent who has otherwise been squandered in a terrible organization. That would seem to fit Derek Carr to a T, but I don’t think he can be trusted. How do you get Davante Adams and somehow have WORSE numbers as a passer?

The question on our minds should be: can you win with X Quarterback? Of course, if the rest of your team is good enough, you can win with ANY quarterback; it’s why we still talk about Trent Dilfer and the Baltimore Ravens to this very day. He’s the ideal of a terrible quarterback stumbling upon a Once-In-A-Generation elite defense/team and winning it all.

There’s three ways to win, two of them involve having a great quarterback.

  1. Great quarterback on a rookie deal allows you to bolster the rest of your roster
  2. Elite quarterback making significant money helps you overcome shortcomings elsewhere through sheer force of will (this year’s Chiefs team)
  3. Cheap game manager allows you to bolster the rest of your roster, with heavy emphasis on defensive prowess

Here’s the deal, as it relates to the Seahawks: even though we had a terrific draft class in 2022, and even though we took a step forward and made the playoffs, we’re not One Offseason Away from being a Super Bowl contending team. Even IF we do what I expect the Seahawks to do: re-sign Geno Smith to a significant contract, kill the draft with a heavy emphasis on the defense, and head into the 2023 season looking improved in all facets over the 2022 squad, there’s no way this team will have done enough to push it over the top. We’ll still be a couple guys short in the front seven, we’ll almost certainly be stuck with sub-standard safety play due to age and injuries, and we’ll still have a starting quarterback who’s good-not-great. That’s best-case scenario. In all reality, we’re Two Offseasons Away, and that’s if everything goes according to plan (which, as we all know, it never does).

That’s why I’ve been beating the drum AWAY from this concept of paying Geno Smith $35+ million a year. But, that doesn’t mean I’m looking at any of these other guys at the top of the market. Hell, I’m not even interested in the second-wave guys. The only fate worse than over-paying for Geno Smith is being saddled with Andy Dalton, Jimmy G, or Jameis Winston.

And don’t mistake my anti-Geno stance for a willingness to roll with Drew Lock. I do believe the Seahawks can rely on their offensive system, but only when it comes to a rookie. I don’t care that Lock has a year in our system; he’s still Drew Lock. He’s not giving you even 80% of what Geno gave us last year, so what’s the point? There’s no touch on his deep ball, there’s no accuracy, there’s no clutch potential of any kind.

Brock & Salk were throwing out a scenario where the Ravens might be compelled to trade Lamar Jackson, but I’m with the majority here: there’s no way I’d be willing to give up the draft capital it’ll take to get him here, nor am I willing to pay him the kind of guaranteed money he’s looking to make. Sure, he’s a fun guy to watch, but he’s not someone who can carry us to a championship by himself. He’s had MUCH better defenses in Baltimore over the years, along with a veteran coaching staff willing to cater their offense to his skillset, and what has that got them? Pass.

Even someone like Aaron Rodgers – assuming he comes away from his retreat dedicated to ass-kicking again – requires too many cap dollars, and potentially too much in trade, to get him here and allow us to compete right now. You don’t bring in Rodgers to play for 2024; you bring him in to Win Now. We wouldn’t have the roster to do that.

I’ve never been more in the corner of drafting someone. Doesn’t matter if it’s in the first, second, or third round. Draft and develop. Draft and develop. Draft and develop. That’s been our mantra in so many ways, but hardly ever with the quarterback position. We always talk about how John Schneider came from the Packers, who would frequently draft a quarterback even if they didn’t need one. Yet, that’s decidedly NOT been his M.O. with the Seahawks. I hope that starts to change. It’s getting ridiculous that we’re continuing to trawl the dregs of the veteran quarterback market for starters and backups, when we should be starting fresh with someone willing to be molded.

We’re two years away anyway. Let’s use 2023 to beef up and give our rookie a chance to work out the kinks.

I Don’t See The Downside To Letting Geno Smith Hit Free Agency

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Of course I don’t, because I don’t really want to see the Seahawks re-signing him. But, I’m resigned to the fact that he will be back, because that’s just how it works. NFL teams can’t help themselves. It’s a zero-risk league; you find what works and you beat it into the fucking ground.

For the purposes of this exercise, though, let’s pretend that I do want Geno Smith back. That I’m more than happy with a 9-8 team that barely squeaks into the playoffs. That mediocrity is my be-all, end-all in life. I was listening to Brock & Salk the other day, and I think they were torn on the matter. Someone said something about how he expects Geno to hit free agency, and Salk said if that happens, he’s as good as gone, because some team will blow the Seahawks away with an over-the-top offer.

I don’t agree with that. I mean, sure, there might be some other team willing to pay $32+ million per year to nab Geno. But, you’re making a big assumption when you opine that the Seahawks might get some sort of discount if we act fast and lock him up before free agency starts.

Frankly, I don’t see any reason why Geno Smith would want to avoid the open market. This is his first – and maybe ONLY – chance to make some real money in this league. His value has never been higher, and it will probably never BE higher than it is right this moment. He has every right to hold out for the absolute highest offer, whatever that may be. Unless …

Conversely, yeah, if you’re the Seahawks – and you want Geno to return – you have to be nervous about a bidding war starting up among the quarterback-needy teams in the league. There are PLENTY of organizations out there who would love to have his services. Geno would be a vast improvement for so many teams! And, as they always say, it only takes one to become enamored with him. Unless …

What if there isn’t the market everyone expects for Geno? Well then, it would be in Geno’s best interests to sign now and avoid the catastrophe that is the league lowballing him all offseason. Conversely, maybe the Seahawks would be wise to wait and see. Maybe instead of approaching that Franchise Tag figure, we’re free to sign him for considerably less.

Why don’t we take this opportunity to look around the league: who are the teams that need a quarterback, and who are the veteran quarterbacks available?

New York Jets – That’s a good team built to win right now, only missing a quarterback. I think they very much present a potential landing spot for a veteran. Would they want to bring Geno back after he failed so miserably with them the first time? I’m dubious.

Baltimore Ravens – It looks like they might move on from Lamar Jackson. But, they have 2022 Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley they could always turn to.

Houston Texans – They have the second overall pick and almost certainly will draft someone.

Indianapolis Colts – They have the fourth overall pick and almost certainly will draft someone.

Las Vegas Raiders – They’ve abandoned Derek Carr and could cut him with relatively little in the way of dead money; they could also try to trade him, though I don’t know what that market looks like. They have the seventh overall pick, but I could see them going either way (veteran vs. rookie).

Washington Commanders – They don’t strike me as a team that can be happy with the guys they’ve got. Like the Jets, they seem close to contention right now, just needing to shore up the quarterback spot. I’d bank on a veteran going their way.

New York Giants – They only need someone if they opt to let Danny Dimes walk. If that’s the case, I’d say they go with a veteran.

The Entire NFC South – The Falcons have the eighth overall pick and a third round quarterback from a year ago. I could see them going either way, but if I were them, I’d just draft another guy and have the two young guns duke it out. The Bucs are losing Tom Brady and don’t appear to have anyone in reserve; they seem to be a likely landing spot for a vet. The Saints would be idiotic to run it back with Andy Dalton, and Jameis Winston apparently isn’t any better otherwise he would’ve been in there when their season was at stake. I could also see them going for a vet. As for the Panthers, I think it’s full rebuild time; they have the ninth pick this year, go get a rookie.

Seattle Seahawks – duh.

Besides the Seahawks, there’s eleven teams. Two, for sure, will go with rookies. Maybe up to four. On the market, we figure to have the aforementioned Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, maybe Aaron Rodgers (if the Packers opt to trade him and go with Jordan Love), Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Cooper Rush, Gardner Minshew, and Matt Ryan. If I’m the Seahawks, I don’t know if I’m enamored with any of those guys. If I’m the rest of the league, though, maybe Geno Smith isn’t looking too bad?

I guess we’ll see. As someone who is against paying $32+ million for Geno Smith, I’m in favor of letting him test the waters. Let him get that somewhere else. Because there’s always the chance that the rest of the NFL sees his 2022 season as something of a fluke. Or, at the very least, a product of a very specific environment, that isn’t likely to be replicated just anywhere.

Ultimately, the question I have for myself is: is there a number I would like to have Geno come back to the Seahawks at? Maybe $20-$25 million. That doesn’t seem super realistic, but I could see myself being comfortable with that sort of deal, over two or three years.

Will Russell Wilson Be A Hall Of Famer?

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It feels insane to even ask this. Even one year ago, I would’ve told you, “Absolutely, 100%!” But, after that 2022 season, it’s probably a fair question. I mean, shit, people are going to debate Eli Manning’s worthiness up until (and probably even after) he gets in, and the dude won two Super Bowls and is in the top ten of all time passing yardage leaders; you don’t think people are going to debate someone as polarizing as Russell Wilson?

If Russell Wilson was having this career 30 years ago, it’d be a no-brainer. He’d already be a lock to get into the Hall of Fame. But, times have clearly changed. Guys are passing for more and more yards; it’s easier than ever to be an NFL quarterback! I no longer think it’s a simple matter of hanging around for a long time and passing for a ton of yards. I think you need titles, plural. I think you need an MVP or two. I think you need to make a significant impact upon the NFL, ideally with playoff appearances and victories.

Let’s take Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, for instance. Both have thrown for over 60,000 yards; only 8 players have ever done so (Aaron Rodgers will be the 9th, if he plays again next year). There’s even a legitimate question about those two guys, though! Ryan has one Super Bowl appearance (that he famously lost), and Rivers doesn’t even have that. Ryan probably has a little bit of an edge, given that he was the Rookie of the Year and later an MVP, but he’s also only cracked the Pro Bowl four times in his career, and has had plenty of infuriating and underwhelming seasons to his credit.

Wilson, right now, sits at 21 in total passing yards with 40,583. Even if he just repeats his abysmal 2022 season, he’ll get to around 18th in 2023. He’s only 34 years old and has every intention of playing until he’s 40 or beyond. Presumably, even it if means bouncing from team to team, taking whatever chances to start that he can get. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get to at least 50,000 yards passing, and if he does find a way to start for another six years, that probably gets him over the hump of 60,000. But, again, will that – and one title – be enough?

We’ll have to take into consideration what the league looks like by the time Wilson hangs ’em up. Mahomes will be skyrocketing up the passing yardage rankings, as will Burrow, Allen, Herbert, and maybe even Lawrence. He almost certainly will have played an entire career without so much as an MVP vote, let alone an MVP award. And, with the way he’s playing as he ages, I’m finding it harder and harder to believe he’s got another ring in him. The longer that goes on, the more people are going to recognize that 2013 Seahawks team for what it was: the genius of Pete Carroll and John Schneider, and the dominance of Marshawn Lynch and the L.O.B. It’s already swinging back in that direction after years of trying to shoehorn Wilson in there as the catalyst (of which I bought in as much as anyone).

And then there’s the Popularity Contest part of the Hall of Fame voting. You need a media person to plead your case to the committee. Is he well liked by the media? Given his boring, robotic quotes in literally every single interview, I’m guessing not. Is he liked at all? If Kyle Brandt’s not-even-hot take is at all representative of the greater American football media, it wouldn’t shock me if Wilson doesn’t have someone champing at the bit to vouch for him. Jake Heaps isn’t even on the radio anymore, for crying out loud!

I’ll admit, I’m really torn. There’s part of me that wants to see Russell Wilson succeed again, but I think in general I’m going to have a hard time rooting for him in a Broncos uniform. I think a lot of that has to do with me just not liking that particular team. I also have very little love for the Walmart family just based on their business practices alone. But, there’s also that need for the Seahawks to be correct in their decision-making. If Russell Wilson bounces back and leads the Broncos to the Super Bowl, that makes them look better than us. But, if he bounces back with his next team, then we’re an organization removed from this trade, and I can start to see myself rooting for a Wilson comeback (unless he returns to the NFC West to play for one of our rivals, then fuck him).

If I just take the last couple years out of it and stick to the good ol’ days, there are a TON of fond memories. All I would have to do is search Russell Wilson Seahawks Highlights on YouTube and there’d be countless compilation videos of him doing amazing, wonderful, magical things. You look at the Seahawks’ records in those seasons, you look at his records on the stat sheet, it all boils down to the best quarterback this organization has ever had.

When Russell Wilson retires, I’m sure we’ll get right back there. But, you can’t disregard what’s gone down the last two years. His vocal discontent in the media. His talking about a trade demand, followed by the next offseason actually following through on that demand. The way he made things miserable for this organization in his final season here. The way every contract he signed hamstrung this team in ways Tom Brady’s never has. Our worst nightmare – once it became clear Wilson was a star in this league – was him turning into a Me First diva. That’s exactly what happened, and it made the Seahawks actively worse as a result.

It’s not totally unforgivable, but it’s going to take some time to get over. You learn a lot about what kind of guy someone is the longer he stays around with the same team. I think we wanted to desperately to believe Russell Wilson was infallible, that we couldn’t see he was actually the cancer in this organization all along.

But, getting back to the original question, I would say right now, he is not a hall of famer. If he doesn’t win another title, he probably needs another 10-15 thousand more yards. And, even if he does manage to win one more, I’m guessing it’ll be more about the team around him than what he’s able to do slinging the ball. If that’s the case, I think he’s Eli 2.0, and it might take him a while to get over the hump.

Then again, he got his ultimate wish of having Sean Payton becoming his head coach, so I definitely won’t rule out a crazy Russell Wilson Second Act!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2022: The Worst Possible Outcome

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This season’s previous fantasy football posts:

Of course.

It’s not just that I came in last – ONCE AGAIN – in the Consolation Bracket, leaving me with only the 4th overall draft pick next year, but my trade partner – whose top two picks I get next year – also won the entire league, meaning those picks are 10th overall. The 4 and 10 picks. Fucking super. Maybe there’s some way I can trade for literally everyone’s first picks in 2024, that way I can guarantee myself a shot at a decent QB.

The only silver lining to this year is that I finally did win the championship in my Splinter League. It was a runaway. My team was great from the jump. I was projected to go 14-1 on draft day, I ended up going 11-4 through the regular season, and smoked both of my opponents in the playoffs (204.44 to 150.49 in round one, 178.30 to 147.90 in the championship). Shoutout to Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, my top two picks. Special shoutout to Jared Goff who probably saved my season. Honorable mention to CeeDee Lamb and Travis Kelce, stalwarts throughout. Even my bench rocked and rolled for me when I needed them! It’s nice to see Gabe Davis win at least one league, after such a disappointing season.

My other playoff team – in my third league – finished in fourth place, and was a colossal disappointment in the second half of the season.

All that’s left is choosing my dynasty roster for next year.

Quarterbacks

  • Justin Fields
  • Mike White
  • Mac Jones
  • Jordan Love
  • Matthew Stafford

Fields is a lock. Mac Jones is definitely out. Mike White is definitely out. Jordan Love is a wild card, but it all depends on what the Packers end up doing with him. If he remains Aaron Rodgers’ backup, then obviously he’s not going to be on my team next year. That leaves me with Matthew Stafford, who has already said he’s coming back in 2023. He’s definitely worth a shot, though obviously I’ll be drafting a quarterback with my top pick.

Running Backs

  • Ezekiel Elliott
  • Tony Pollard
  • Brian Robinson
  • Kenneth Walker
  • Alexander Mattison

I’m all in on Kenneth Walker, I think he’s just going to get better and better. My dream scenario involves the Cowboys cutting Zeke and handing the keys to Pollard, in which case I’m keeping Pollard. But, that would require a Pollard extension, which might not fit in the budget. On the plus side, maybe he lands with another run-heavy team that appreciates his talents. Mattison is another guy who will be a free agent, who could land with a run-heavy team (I mostly just picked him up so no one else could keep him). If all else fails, the Commanders seem to like Brian Robinson, and it might be interesting to see what he turns into with a full offseason of NOT getting shot in the leg in a robbery.

Wide Receivers

  • CeeDee Lamb
  • D.K. Metcalf
  • Christian Watson

Lamb is a guaranteed keeper. We’ll see with the other two. Watson has a high upside, but D.K. is already established. I could keep both, but that might be silly. Wide receivers are a dime a dozen; it’s probably more prudent to keep three running backs, what with injuries and everything.

Tight End / Kicker / Defense

  • T.J. Hockenson
  • Evan McPherson
  • New York Jets

I couldn’t be happier with where Hockenson landed. For whatever reason, the Lions just never figured him out, even though they pass a ton. The Vikings also pass a ton, but they seem to remember they also have a good tight end every once in a while. He actually finished #2 behind Kelce, which is kind of crazy, but also good on me for keeping him.

McPherson, on the other hand, REALLY took a step back in his second season. He finished 19th in kicker scoring. There were 11 guys on the scrap heap ranked ahead of him! I’m chalking that up to kicker randomness and hoping for better things in year three.

I’m cautiously optimistic with the Jets. They finished 7th in defensive scoring, but seem to have a young and talented core on that side of the ball that should continue to play well in 2023 at least. They finished MUCH better than the Rams, that’s for damn sure.

If I had to choose now, I’d go something like this:

  • Justin Fields (QB)
  • Matthew Stafford (QB)
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR)
  • Kenneth Walker (RB)
  • Tony Pollard (RB)
  • Brian Robinson (FLEX)
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE)
  • Evan McPherson (K)
  • N.Y. Jets (DEF)

My first pick is destined to be a quarterback. My second first round pick might ALSO be a quarterback. Then, it’s best player available the rest of the way (likely non-quarterbacks), with probably my early second rounder being another wide receiver.

I’ll be back with an update before next year’s season starts, where I should have a better idea of who I’m keeping.