There Is No Reason To Look Forward To This Seahawks Game In Washington

It’s time to face facts that our loss to the Giants eliminated any reasonable hope for the Seahawks to get the number one seed. At 9-4, we have two teams better than us (Green Bay and New Orleans) who we’d have to surpass (currently with 10-3 records). For tie-breaking purposes, both have a better conference record (8-2 to our 6-3), meaning we’d have to win out and they’d have to lose to another NFC team (and even then, further tiebreakers I won’t get into here might prevent us from climbing to the top).

The Packers have the Panthers and Bears left (as well as a meaningless game against the Titans that doesn’t help us if they lose to them). The Saints have the Vikings and Panthers left (as well as a meaningless game against the Chiefs this weekend). The odds of the Packers AND Saints losing to one of those NFC teams seems remote, so it’s pointless to even think about.

Our top priority in this brave new world should be the NFC West. We’ve been second place in this fucking division three years running, and as a DIRECT result, we have failed to advance past the Divisional Round of the playoffs. When you’re forced to play Wild Card weekend, and then go on the road in the second round, you have an exponentially more difficult time advancing to what is our ultimate goal every year we have Russell Wilson as our quarterback: the Super Bowl.

The difference this year is a two or three seed in the playoffs (and a home game in the first round) or probably a five seed wild card slot, and a road game in the first round (likely against this very same Washington team). In that sense, isn’t this Sunday’s game vital? Not really! The only game that matters is next week, when we host the Rams (also 9-4); the winner of that game will almost certainly win the NFC West.

I guess the Washington game is somewhat important, though. If we win this one AND beat the Rams, that buys us an opportunity to lose to the 49ers in Week 17 (I think, don’t quote me on that; I haven’t worked out all the possible scenarios in my head yet).

Anyway, the point is: the last thing any of us want is to play in Washington TWICE. Fuck, I don’t like playing there at all! Their field is fucking atrocious and it seems like an ACL or two are torn this time of year there every fucking season. Their field should be fucking outlawed along with their stupid former nickname.

I’m not dreading this game simply for the likelihood that a few of our guys will get injured this weekend (though that cloud will be hanging over me until Sunday afternoon, to be sure). I hate this matchup for any number of reasons! This will not be a fun game to watch. Much like the game against the Giants, it will be a fucking defensive slog, with lots of mistakes, punts, and probably turnovers. So, if that gets your juices flowing, then God help you.

The Washington Football Team has a tremendous defensive line and pass rush. As someone depending on Russell Wilson to win him a fantasy football playoff game, I’m fully expecting another bed-shitting performance. I would hope we’ve learned our lesson from the loss two weeks ago, and will rely more on quick passing and running the football, but I’m not holding my breath that even that will work. Our offensive line has been chewed up, and we’re seeing more critical missed blocks than we have all season. Wilson isn’t a spring chicken; he’s not escaping these increasingly-faster defenders as he ages into the middle of his prime. I expect him to be hit, a lot. And bad things tend to happen when Wilson takes a pounding.

The good thing is, like the Giants, Washington doesn’t have much of an offense to speak of. Their great running back appears to be hampered by an injury (if he plays at all). They’re down to a reliable Alex Smith (avoids turnovers, but also avoids making many big plays down field) and an elite receiver in Scary Terry McLaurin. If we can keep him in check, they’ll surely be in check-down mode all game.

Their offense is like a slightly better version of the Giants’ offense. So, instead of giving up 17 points, I would expect us to give up around 23. We are certainly capable of besting that mark, and even though it’ll be a challenge, I do expect we’ll get there.

The keys to this game are the same as any other. Try to get them off the field, so they’re not absolutely killing us in Time of Possession. Force them into field goals instead of touchdowns as much as possible. And for the love of all that is holy, the Seahawks’ offense MUST NOT go in the tank for huge stretches of this game!

The odds of a blowout win for either team seems remote. The lack of fans makes home field irrelevant (presumably, we’ll pack the proper cleats we need, but I guess you never know; we’ll find out if our guys are slipping and sliding around). From a pure talent perspective, I would say the Seahawks have a better than 50% chance of prevailing. The coaching is relatively equal on both sides. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t give the Seahawks more than a 60% chance of winning this one; there is work to be done.

Thankfully, it’s a 10am game (imagine if I’d ever said that in the Mike Holmgren years; you’d think I’d belong in a looney bin!), so either way this game will be over with plenty of time to move on to more enjoyable things. Christmas movies, Christmas music, Christmas TV specials, Christmas cookies, and just enjoying all of our Christmas decorations!

Are The Seahawks Pissing Down Our Legs & Telling Us It’s Raining?

The fun thing about Monday Night Football games is that I get an extra post to dick around with before making my official prediction on gameday. So, let’s take a broad look at the Seahawks, a little over halfway through the season.

The Seahawks are 7-2 after nine games. If you’d told me heading into the season that we’d be 7-2 at this point, I would’ve shown you my pre-season prediction post and told you this is EXACTLY where I expected the Seahawks to be. I didn’t get it 100% right – I had us beating Baltimore at home, for instance – but this is in line with my thought process.

What has me absolutely floored – and a little depressed – is the fact that the 49ers are undefeated at 8-0 (the last undefeated team in the league). My worst nightmare – after having to settle for a 5-seed in the playoffs last year, only to lose in Dallas in the first round – was to once again settle for a 5-seed in the playoffs this year, only to have to go to Dallas yet AGAIN. I mean, let’s face it, we beat Dallas last year in the regular season, so we should’ve held the tiebreaker and at least gotten to host them in the playoffs; but that’s not how the NFL rolls. You win a division, you get a home game, no ifs, ands, or buts.

It’s depressing because I do think the Seahawks can get to 12-4 if everything continues to break right. We’d have to go 5-2 the rest of the way, which is do-able if we split against Frisco and beat the Eagles, Vikings, Cardinals, and Panthers.

The problem is, if we don’t beat the 49ers twice, we might not have a prayer of surpassing them.

I’m not here to lament their easier schedule. Schedules are boiled down to a difference of two games when you’re in the same division. With our second place finish last year, we were saddled with the Vikings and Eagles; the 49ers enjoy the Redskins and Packers. TBH, I’d rather face the Vikings over the Packers, all things considered. And nothing about the Eagles (especially their secondary) scares me; they’re not as inept as the Redskins, but they’re not remarkably superior either.

I would argue both the Seahawks and 49ers have had it relatively easy so far through the midway point. So, let’s look at the 49ers’ schedule the rest of the way and see where some potential pitfalls lie.

Five of their remaining eight games are at home. So, that’s nuts. They have to face us twice, and both contests should be really tough and fun to watch.

They host the Cardinals and Falcons; both should be easy 49ers victories; that puts them at 10 wins.

They also host the Packers, which is good for them. However, what’s not good for them is Aaron Rodgers is from the area, and he loves going home and sticking it to the team that took Alex Smith over him in the draft. If the Seahawks fail to take care of business on Monday, I think this will for sure be their first loss of the season.

The really big games for them are back-to-back road games, at Baltimore and at New Orleans in the first two weekends in December. With the Packers game happening the week before, that’s a 3-week stretch where the Seahawks probably need them to lose all three. While it’s certainly possible, I have my doubts that it’ll actually happen.

After that tepid Falcons game, they host the Rams, which is another possible defeat. I’m nowhere near close to burying the Rams in spite of their little slip-up earlier this season. I do think – between the Packers, Ravens, Saints, and Rams – there are 3 defeats in that window, which would be good news for the Seahawks.

The bad news – spoiler alert – is that I think the Seahawks will lose to the 49ers on Monday. That will make us 7-3, and if everything shakes out the way I’m expecting it to for the 49ers (3 losses in those aforementioned 4 games), that means we would need to win out the rest of the way. @ Eagles, vs. Vikings, @ Rams, @ Panthers, vs. Cardinals. If that comes to pass, then it’s a Week 17 showdown in Seattle against the 49ers for the division.

I just don’t think that’s too likely. What’s likelier is the Seahawks lose one of those games and end up 11-4 heading into Week 17. If the 49ers are 12-3 at the same time, then it’s going to boil down to us sweeping the Rams this year, while the Rams take out the 49ers in Santa Clara. In this scenario, with both teams at 12-4 (assuming the Seahawks take care of business in the final week), we’d have the same divisional record, and we’d also need the Packers and Saints to beat the 49ers for us, to ensure we’re their 4th conference loss in that ultimate tiebreaker.

As I’ll go into on Monday, this game this week might be as close to a must-win as it gets, if we want to keep up in the race for the NFC West title. Otherwise, we might be too far gone, and once again looking to advance through a Wild Card berth.

***

So, let’s get back to the subject of this post: are the Seahawks actually good? Or, are we deluding ourselves with this remarkable record through nine games?

I still don’t have a great read on the Seahawks, other than the obvious:

Russell Wilson = Good
Defense = Bad

The two losses are to the two best teams we’ve played this year: the Saints and Ravens. The narrow victories over the Bengals, Browns, Falcons, and Bucs don’t look very good, in that we REALLY struggled to get those wins. The win over the Steelers looks better by the week, as they’ve clawed their way to .500; our best win was at home against the Rams, and we were maybe a couple feet away from losing on a last-second field goal.

The meat of our schedule is still ahead of us; I think I heard somewhere that we have the most difficult remaining schedule of anyone in the NFL. As I’ve discussed above, I think 12-4 is on the table. There could even be an outside shot at 13-3 if we’re unsustainably lucky over the final seven games.

But, this defense. God damn this defense is awful. We should nevertheless be good enough to at least beat the Eagles, Vikings, Panthers, and Cardinals, but none of those games are sure things. All of those teams have solid offenses who will have no trouble moving the ball on us; most or all of those games will probably come down to whoever has the ball last. I’d also say the Rams game is still a coin flip, even though it’s in Los Angeles; our offense matches up pretty well with their defense and has shown that over the last three games against them.

What worries me is this very 49ers team, which I’ll get into on Monday. I think they’re just flat out better than us. I think their defensive line is going to be the biggest problem we’ll face the rest of the season; their secondary is much improved. As a whole, I think these will be the types of games we’ve often seen where the Seahawks’ offense is shut down and we struggle to score over 20 points. Which won’t cut it, because the 49ers can run the ball like nobody’s business, and Jimmy G is just getting back into the swing of things after his nasty injury in 2018.

As I said before, Monday Night is a real Must Win.

Ultimately, nothing has changed from the beginning of this season: the Seahawks will go as far as Russell Wilson is able to take them. Thankfully, he’s having an MVP-type season; he will need to continue to play at that level the rest of the way just for us to make the playoffs. Honestly, with how terrible our defense has been, I think 9-7 or 10-6 is a more reasonable expectation for this team as opposed to 12-4 or 13-3. The Seahawks could lose literally ALL of their remaining games and it wouldn’t shock me.

As I alluded to above, we’ve been unsustainably lucky already, just to get to 7-2. We’re 6-1 in games decided by one score or less! We would have to somehow double down on that luck to get to a divsion championship. I just can’t see that happening.

If I’m being honest, the Seahawks aren’t a Super Bowl team this year. That feels disrespectful to say at this point in the season, but given what I’ve seen from our team – compared to what I’ve seen from the rest of the NFC – I’d rank the teams as follows:

  1. San Francisco 49ers
  2. New Orleans Saints
  3. Green Bay Packers
  4. Los Angeles Rams
  5. Dallas Cowboys
  6. Minnesota Vikings
  7. Seattle Seahawks
  8. Carolina Panthers
  9. Philadelphia Eagles

Any of those teams 4-9 are probably pretty equal; I could see any of those teams beating any of those teams on any given Sunday. But, the top 3 are pretty deep and pretty strong in all three phases. For the Seahawks to just get INTO the playoffs, we’ll have to find a way to beat 3 or 4 of those teams in the regular season, then likely go through Dallas, San Francisco, and either Green Bay or New Orleans to get to the Super Bowl. Can you see that happening? I can’t. Not unless the 49ers fall apart and the Seahawks find a way to win the division and get a first round BYE. Seems like the longest of longshots.

Unless, again the Seahawks luck into having the 49ers’ number this year. Anything could happen, I suppose.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not ruling any of this great success out; I’m just saying that it’s not likely. The Seahawks could very well go all the way thanks to Russell Wilson’s magic. But, he’s been great his whole career, on better teams than this one, and we’ve only got two Super Bowl appearances on our ledger. It’s not easy. This season has been remarkable to date, but don’t rule out a tragic ending.

Is Russell Wilson The Greatest Dual-Threat Quarterback Of All Time?

The first thing we have to ask is: what constitutes a true Dual-Threat Quarterback? I think it’s pretty easy to whittle things down on the Eye Test alone. For starters, we’re talking about quarterbacks who can also run with the football. So, we’re not talking about the greatest Running Quarterback, because if you looked at just the 2018 season, you’d have to say Lamar Jackson was the best Running Quarterback in the league. But, Dual-Threat means he can beat you with his legs AND his arm, and it’s pretty safe to say Jackson hasn’t built up that arm half of his game just yet.

So, I went into Pro Football Reference and played around with the numbers. First, I separated all the quarterbacks into a list of those who’ve run for 1,000 yards in their careers. But, that’s not quite good enough, because Tom Brady has 1,003 rushing yards in his career, and he is NOBODY’S idea of a Dual-Threat. So, I went ahead and bumped it up to 1,500 career rushing yards (mostly to knock him the hell off of a GOAT list, because he has enough GOATs in his life).

When you list them by rushing yards, you’ll find someone by the name of Tom Matte, who is listed as a quarterback and a running back. Among all quote-unquote Quarterbacks in NFL history, Matte has the 4th highest rushing yards total with 4,646. But, he only threw for 246 yards, so he’s obviously got to go. To be considered as the Greatest Dual-Threat Quarterback Of All Time, I figure at a minimum you need 20,000 passing yards. That drops our total from 53 to 38, which is a number I can get behind.

Such a list includes favorites like Jim Zorn, Andrew Luck, Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Archie Manning, and even Ryan Fitzpatrick! But, it also includes such stiffs as Vinny Testaverde, Boomer Esiason, Jay Cutler, Johnny Unitas, and Brett Favre. While they’re all pretty good-to-great, I don’t think you’d ever fear for your life if they were running with the football. Those guys mostly just hung around long enough to qualify for my arbitrary cutting-off point.

So, to whittle it down further, I had to put a limit on Yards Per Game. Yards Per Attempt isn’t worth a damn for a quarterback, because most guys scramble once or twice per game, and with the defense not expecting it, they tend to rack up a lot of garbage yards in the process. We need to focus on guys opposing defenses are specifically game-planning for. Setting it at 10 yards per game gets us down to 30 guys, and just barely keeps Jim Zorn on the list. But, it also keeps Jay Cutler on the list, and I just can’t have that. So, I increased it to a minimum of 13 yards per game, which also managed to cut off Joe Theismann, Ken Anderson, and Mark Brunell (who had 12.5 yards per game). While I like Brunell an awful lot, I don’t mind lopping him off because I don’t think he belongs in the conversation.

1,500 career rushing yards, 20,000 career passing yards, and 13 rushing yards per game put us at 25 quarterbacks. But, a couple of names still bothered me, because mediocre quarterbacks like Jeff Blake and Aaron Brooks were still hanging around. So, I made the cutoff 22,000 passing yards, and we’re left with a Top 23. This fits better with my idea of a Dual-Threat Quarterback.

For what it’s worth, I was going to be more strict with the Rushing Yards Per Game, and set it at 20, to really separate the wheat from the chaff, but that ended up cutting off guys like John Elway, Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach, and Aaron Rodgers. While I don’t consider A-Rod to be a “running quarterback” per se, he’s still lumped into that Dual-Threat mold, even though his arm is VASTLY superior to his running ability (I’d put it at somewhere like 90/10, or 80/20 at the very most). And, while Elway certainly slowed down on running in his old age, you just can’t have this conversation without him.

There are a number of ways to go about ranking these guys, but I’m just going to go by Who I Would Most Want On My Football Team, at the beginning of their careers, for the duration of their careers.

I’m also going to split them up even further, because ultimately I have a Top 4 REAL Dual-Threat Quarterbacks.

There’s no perfect way to rank these guys, because all of the ones in the aforementioned Top 23 are much more passers than runners. But, I would argue that the vast majority of them are more “scramblers” than actual threats to run downfield with the football. So, if I had to pick a Top 10, I would definitely include guys like Andrew Luck (10), Donovan McNabb (9), Steve McNair (8), Fran Tarkenton (7), John Elway (6), and Aaron Rodgers (5). Those guys have a ton of rushing yards, pretty solid Yards Per Game averages, and a ton of passing yards. But, to me, they’re not REAL Dual-Threat Quarterbacks in the sense I’m defining here.

Just outside my Top 10, I might add, we have Alex Smith, who I wouldn’t have expected to show up here, except he has over 34,000 passing yards, over 2,600 rushing yards, and averages over 15 rushing yards per game. I’m also leaving out Michael Vick, because his passing game was far too weak to be considered, even though he leads all QBs in total and per game rushing yards.

My Top 4 includes Randall Cunningham (4) and Cam Newton (3). I LOVE me some QB Eagles, and if their careers both ended today, he’d actually rank ahead of Cam. But, given Cam’s age and the fact that he has so much left in the tank, he’s easily the superior option. Even though I don’t love the way he reacts in losing situations, it would be idiotic to keep Newton outside of the Top 3.

My Top 2 should come as no surprise. In some order, it’s Russell Wilson and Steve Young. Young has over 33,000 passing yards, over 4,200 rushing yards, and over 25 yards per game. He’s right in that sweet spot of elite passer and elite runner, and if you just count his prime (from 1991-1998), you’re talking about eight Hall of Fame seasons where he averaged nearly 4,000 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns, with an average of over 400 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. I mean, just unstoppable production, and his total career could’ve been so much better if he A) wasn’t saddled behind Joe Montana for so long, and B) didn’t succumb to head injuries (among other maladies) late in his career.

So, if we’re just talking about today, I have Steve Young at #1 and Russell Wilson #2, but it won’t be too much longer before Russell Wilson is the All Time Greatest Dual-Threat Quarterback, with Cam Newton coming in at #2 (in other words, we’re watching the two greatest Dual-Threat Quarterbacks while they’re in their primes, and that’s pretty amazing).

Not for nothing, but if you compare Young’s best 7 years to Wilson’s only 7 years, you can see what I’m talking about:

  • Steve Young 1992-1998: 24,266 passing yards, 178 TDs, 68 INTs, 66.9% completions; 2,450 rushing yards, 29 TDs, 5.8 yards per attempt
  • Russell Wilson 2012-2018: 25,624 passing yards, 196 TDs, 63 INTs, 64.2% completions; 3,651 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 5.7 yards per attempt

As I said, it’s only a matter of time before Wilson surpasses him in all career numbers. And, considering Wilson’s best statistical years might still be ahead of him, it could be sooner than we think.

Finally, I know nobody likes talking about superficial things QB Winzzz or Pro Bowl/Playoff appearances, but I’m sorry, you just can’t have this discussion without bringing those into the mix. Young’s record as a 49ers quarterback was 91-33 over 13 years; Wilson is 75-36-1. Young was in 7 Pro Bowls to Wilson’s 5, and he was on 3 First All Pro Teams to Wilson’s 0. Young has 14 Playoff Games Started to Wilson’s 13, with an 8-6 record to Wilson’s 8-5. Young, of course, has 3 rings to Wilson’s 1, but two of Young’s were as a backup to Montana. Finally, Young has 2 MVPs to Wilson’s 0, and 1 Super Bowl MVP to Wilson’s 0. Wilson is RIGHT THERE in so many areas, but just not quite over the hump.

Not yet, that is.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Playoffs Round 1

Spoiler alert:  I backed into the playoffs.

That’s right, I lost yet again to Korky Butchek, albeit narrowly, 154.40 to 149.45.  I had good games out of my QB’s (Wentz & Winston) as well as Elliott and Woods; but Tyreek Hill did nothing, Greg Olsen got hurt and is out for the rest of the season, and my Chicago defense royally shit the bed.  My opponent, meanwhile, got nothing out of his QB’s (Stafford & Goff) and had a paltry game out of Mark Ingram.  But, Antonio Brown killed it, the Seahawks defense dominated, and Zach Ertz did just enough to counter-balance my Philly quarterback going on Monday Night to fend me off.

Luckily, the guy I was fighting for that 6th and final playoff spot who had the same record as me also lost.  That game was pretty well decided before we even got to the Sunday Night game, so I had that going for me.

So, I’m 5-8.  I’m 3rd in total points scored, and 2nd in most points scored against.  It is what it is.  The bottom line is I got into the playoffs, and it all starts over from here.

If I had won, I would’ve jumped up to the 5th seed, playing the 4-seed in the first round.  We’ll see what happens this week, but that’s yet another thing I can bitch about if things don’t go my way.  Also, if I’d won, I would’ve knocked Korky Butchek out of the 2-seed (top two seeds get a first round BYE).  Instead, I’m the 6th seed, playing the team I would’ve bumped up to #2 had I won. He’s obviously not pleased with me.

That team:  Crazy N8’s Prostates.  That’s right, a third contest with the team that so far has beaten me twice by a combined 7 points.  He’s the team who won my way into the playoffs by beating my closest rival for the 6th seed, so obviously I’m pretty happy with this fella!  He’s already lost Alex Smith for the year, and now he’s down Colt McCoy as well.  I don’t know who he’ll play as his second QB this week, but he’s got options (albeit, not great ones).

First, here’s my lineup:

  • QB1 – Jameis Winston vs. NO
  • QB2 – Derek Carr vs. PIT
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill vs. BAL
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen @ SEA
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott vs. PHI
  • RB2 – Chris Carson vs. MIN
  • TE – Jimmy Graham vs. ATL
  • FLEX – Robert Woods @ CHI
  • K – Matt Bryant @ GB
  • DEF – New York @ WAS

My bench is:  Wentz, Peterson, Boyd, Adams, Chicago, Bell (IR).

I put in a claim for the Steelers’ backup running back, but of course I didn’t get it.  What’s worse, the ninnies with the highest waiver priority didn’t claim him either.  Which means Crazy N8’s Prostates – who suffered the devastating loss of James Conner – now gets to slide his backup right into his lineup and not skip a beat.  Great.

I did end up nabbing Jimmy Graham as my tight end.  I don’t feel super confident about that – because I’m a Seahawks fan, and I’ve seen what he brings to the table – but at this point I have to go for upside.  Jordan Reed with Mark Sanchez throwing to him isn’t exciting.  Austin Hooper is, like, Atlanta’s 4th or 5th option offensively.  And the rest is downhill from there.  All told, Graham should hopefully be okay.

And, I tried to stick to Chicago each and every week as my defense, hoping that maybe they’ll get just enough sacks or something to help me out and get me SOME points.  But, I’ve been burned against the better offenses.  I put them in against New England and I’m pretty sure that’s why I lost that week.  It seems like, if they’re not scoring touchdowns, they’re not doing anything for me; now, it speaks volumes that they’ve scored as many TDs as they have this year, but I just can’t throw them out there against the Rams.  I WANTED the Chargers – who host Cincinnati this week – but some guy who didn’t even need them used his high waiver priority on them over that Steelers’ backup running back, so I’m putting the blame (if I lose) squarely on that guy!  I don’t love the Giants’ defense, but I hate Washington’s offense, so I’m hoping for a miracle.  Any time you stream a defense that’s on the road, you’re just asking for trouble.

As far as matchups go for my guys, these are about as bad as they get.  The Cowboys and Saints both have terrific defenses.  Meanwhile, the Steelers aren’t great.  Considering the tear the Cowboys are on, I’ve got to go with the higher-upside plays over my keeper in Wentz.  It’s more likely Winston and Carr will be involved in shootouts; whereas the Eagles/Cowboys game is likely to be a grind-it-out affair.

Things don’t get better for my team from there.  Baltimore’s defense is one of the best in the league, the Vikings have to go to Seattle on Monday Night, and I could see the Bears shutting down Robert Woods.  I need to hope for crazy miracles up and down my roster or I’m toast.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 13

I’m a man on the brink of destruction.

I took another one on the chin this week, losing to Space Forcin’ 178.53 to 170.70.  I had an opportunity, but I froze, and it bit me in the ass.  If I’d picked up Chase Daniel and dropped Derek Carr, that would’ve been the difference.  Space Forcin’ had Daniel going on Thursday, so of course he blew up for 25 points.  There were any number of other issues – JuJu Smith-Schuster scoring on a 90+ yard touchdown against the inept Denver Broncos secondary, Philip Rivers being unstoppable; or on my team getting another crap game from Wentz, AP and Greg Olsen – but the bottom line is if I couldn’t beat a team with Mahomes on BYE and with Kamara getting under 12 points, then I just don’t deserve to win.

So, this is it.  The final week of the regular season.  I’m 5-7, in 6th place.  Still 3rd in points scored; still 2nd in points against.  This year is a clusterfuck of epic proportions.  The team ahead of me is 6-6; I can only pass him if I win and he loses (because I’m way ahead of him in points).  The team behind me is also 5-7.  If I lose and he wins, I’m out of the playoffs.  If he loses, I’m in the playoffs regardless (because, again, I’m way ahead of him in points).

I don’t deserve any of this.  But, I also deserve every single bit of this.  Because I play this stupid fucking game by choice; no one’s putting a gun to my head!  I could quit any time.  And yet I continue to put myself through this.  I’m miserable all day Sunday as I obsessively check score updates; I’m miserable all day Monday as I sweat out yet another close game.  I’m miserable Tuesday through Saturday because I’m in this fucking position of having one of the three best teams in the league while on the outside-looking-in.  I need a miracle and the guy I need to win next week just lost Alex Smith and Jack Doyle.

As for my team, I lost Andy Dalton for the year, so that’s fun.  Thankfully, I wasn’t planning on playing him ever.  Jameis Winston is now my Ride Or Die #2 QB, so I’ll live and die with a potential 4-INT game hanging over my head.  Before Monday Night’s game, I dropped Dalton for Derrick Henry, but I never expected to hang onto him long.  Indeed, I was able to flip him for Philly’s Josh Adams.  It’s Week 13, I’m not gonna make a waiver claim and NOT play him immediately!  So, he slots in for Carson.  I do think Carson will play well against the 49ers – and watch this be the game he scores 3 TDs – but I think Adams is going to be more reliable, more explosive, and more of a workhorse over Seattle’s committee.  Plus, this way, if Carson stinks, I don’t have to sit there being miserable the entire afternoon.

No more BYE weeks to kick me around, so here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz vs. WAS
  • QB2 – Jameis Winston vs. CAR
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill @ OAK
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen @ NE
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott vs. NO
  • RB2 – Josh Adams vs. WAS
  • TE – Greg Olsen @ TB
  • FLEX – Robert Woods @ DET
  • K – Matt Bryant vs. BAL
  • DEF – Chicago @ NYG

My bench is:  Carr, Peterson, Boyd, Carson, Brown, Bell (IR).

This week I’m going up against Korky Butchek again.  He’s the #2 team in the league, in record and in points.  I’m not posting his lineup because I don’t give a fuck anymore.  I’m not obsessing over this thing like I’ve been doing.  My lineups are set in all my leagues, I’ll check before game times to make sure there are no injury/inactive surprises.  But, once 10am on Sunday rolls around, I’m not opening up Yahoo again until Tuesday morning.  I don’t want to know who my opponent has going this week, because I don’t want to feel that pang of misery every time I see one of his guys scores a touchdown.  I just want to watch football and try to enjoy myself.  If I make the playoffs, great.  If I don’t, then whatever, I’ll try to rip shit up in the Consolation Bracket.

I should be favored in all those games – barring more injuries – because I’m far and away better than the bottom 4 teams.  So, watch me lose in the first week.

Every year I tinker with the thought of quitting fantasy football.  That urge is going to be tough to beat after this season if I’m eliminated from the playoffs.  I mean, how is this fun?  What makes this a worthwhile endeavor?  These are the questions I’ll be asking myself in the weeks ahead.

The Seahawks’ Season Might Be On The Line In Carolina

It’s interesting, because last weekend through arguably yesterday, everything the Seahawks needed to have happen has gone according to the script you’d want to see.  I mean, let’s go through the list:

  1. Seahawks beat Packers on Thursday
  2. Dallas beat Atlanta to knock them down a peg
  3. Detroit beat Carolina
  4. Houston beat Washington
  5. New Orleans beat Philly
  6. Chicago beat Minnesota
  7. Chicago beat Detroit
  8. New Orleans beat Atlanta to knock them down another peg

The only thing you could argue isn’t so great is Dallas beating Washington yesterday, but that could really go either way.  At this point, the Cowboys are leading the NFC East, which means our victory over them doesn’t do a whole lot for our wild card situation.  My thinking is the Redskins without Alex Smith are toast, so ideally we’d keep pace with Dallas, and someone like Philly would surpass them for the division.  But, who knows?  Maybe Dallas is just really good now, and with their schedule being relatively easy the rest of the way (3 of 5 at home, including the Saints, Eagles, and Bucs; with their road games being at Indy & the Giants), maybe they go 3-2 or 4-1 and finish with a better record than us anyway.

That’s not really the point here, which is that our season really hinges on this game against the Panthers on Sunday.  If we win, we improve to 6-5, pass them with a tie-breaker, and if the Packers beat the Vikings, we’d soar past both of those teams as well.  Then, it’s only a matter of the Redskins continuing to spiral before we worm our way into the wild card spot.

If we lose, then we drop to 5-6, Carolina improves to 7-4, and they hold the tie-breaker over us.  Depending on what Philly does, we could possibly fall to 10th in the NFC.  Not good.

Now, obviously, our schedule eases up quite a bit the rest of the way.  4 of our last 5 at home, with three games against the 49ers and Cardinals.  We’d also host the Vikings to try to get past them, and I dunno, maybe we win a miracle game over the Chiefs to get to 10 wins the hard way.  Or, failing that, we’re mired at 9-7 and need some help.

I don’t want to get too into the whole scenario with all the viable teams, but suffice it to say, the Seahawks could make it A LOT easier on themselves if they just win on Sunday and go forward with the confidence that only winning a game in Carolina can give you.

But … when have the Seahawks EVER made things easy on themselves?

I’ve been poo-pooing the Seahawks’ chances a lot lately, to the point where now it feels like I’m trying to reverse-jinx them with every blog post.  It’s just that this team is so hard to read!  One week, they look really strong, then I get my hopes up and they lay an egg.

If I just go by my gut on this one, Carolina FEELS like the better team.  They’re at home, which is always a plus, and I think if any team could sneak up on us and stop our rushing attack, it would be the team led by one of the best middle linebackers in football in Luke Kuechly.  I also think that their offense – with Norv Turner at the helm – is really dynamic and poses a lot of challenges.

The Seahawks don’t stop the run very well.  Carolina has one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the game.  They’ve also got a gadget running back in Christian McCaffrey who does it all.  He could make things miserable for the linebackers who try to cover him, just as he could dominate through the gaping holes our D-Line gives up on the reg.

Carolina also has a lot of dynamic pieces in the passing game.  Greg Olsen, again, is a guy who can expose even our athletic linebackers.  D.J. Moore is an up-and-comer.  Devin Funchess has a terrific catch radius.  They’re a team that loves play-action and we’re a team that falls for it more than it’s supposed to.  We’re susceptible to the big play and Carolina thrives on it!

I think a lot of Seahawks fans are expecting one of those traditional Seattle/Carolina slugfests with a score like 12-10 or something.  I fear this could venture into the shootout territory, and if we’re not careful with the football, possibly even a blowout.

For the Seahawks to win, they’re going to have to do all the things they usually do in Seahawks wins.  Limit turnovers, get after the quarterback, be good on 3rd down while limiting the other team’s.  Pretty standard fare.  I don’t think we’ll stop them from moving the ball, and if I had to guess, I’d say this will look a lot closer to a Seahawks/Rams game than, I dunno, a Seahawks/Cardinals game.  High scoring, back-and-forth, with the team holding the ball last winning the game (or, at least, having a chance to win it).

My guess its it’s Carolina 31, Seahawks 24.  I think there are better days ahead, but I’m finding it really hard to see the Seahawks finishing this one.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 10

I’m so fucked.

I mean, last week was just a trainwreck.  Beasts beat up on King Flippy Nips 202.40 to 133.30.  There was nothing I could do!  If you thought Carr’s 9.05 on Thursday night was bad, wait til you get a load of Sam Darnold’s -4.55!  Every skill guy except for Greg Olsen underperformed.  My Chicago defense was always going to be my best thing going – and that proved true at a whopping 41.00 points – but even they were undercut by my opponent’s defense (Minnesota) and their 35.00.  Just unreal.

I’m officially demoralized.  I STILL have the 3rd most points scored, but I’m in 5th place with a 4-5 record (I’m up to the 2nd most points scored against).  Thankfully, this league allows 6 teams into the playoffs, because my only hope is to sneak in as one of the last ones in, but even that is looking grim.

I have 4 games left in the regular season.  3 of the 4 are against the top 3 teams in the league, record-wise (including the top 2 scoring teams, and the #4 scoring team).  The one “push-over” (if you want to call him that) is TheGangUnderperforms, who (with my luck) will probably see a return of Le’Veon Bell by the time I play him.  His team is actually really good, and having Bell around will only further cement my demise, as he shares my 4-5 record and is only behind me because of total points.

So, odds are, I’m going to need a TON of help.  The biggest help of them all would be just winning some fucking games, but I can’t see that happening any time soon.

One way to get that help is to make some drastic moves.  As chance would have it, TheGangUnderperforms – being in my same boat – is equally as desperate to shake things up.  So, just ahead of this week’s trade deadline, we did the following:

I traded away:

  • Kenny Golladay
  • Leonard Fournette
  • Sam Darnold

He traded away:

  • Tyler Boyd
  • Jameis Winston
  • Le’Veon Bell

So, the worst-case scenario in all this is we swapped two useless quarterbacks, two running backs who can’t/won’t stay on the field, and two equally-disappointing wide receivers.  But, I figure his rationale is he wants Darnold as a potential keeper (assuming Darnold makes The Leap in year 2), Fournette is a stud when he’s healthy, and Golladay might turn out to be a real boss (particularly with Golden Tate off the team).

My rationale is:  I figure Winston will get his job back eventually (and throwing a ton of picks per game or not, he still gets a lot of fantasy points), Tyler Boyd is a solid receiver who is a great fill-in this week and a good FLEX option going forward, and if Le’Veon Bell ever decides to come back, he could be a champion-maker (or, if nothing else, he’s a solid keeper option for 2019).

All the risk is on my end.  TheGangUnderperforms really doesn’t have a lot to lose at this point, because holding onto a Le’Veon Bell who doesn’t play this year isn’t going to help his playoff chances.  Sam Darnold is and always was potential keeper fodder for a guy desperately looking for a quality quarterback going foreward.  And, if Fournette returns to form and keeps from getting injured the rest of the way, could be a real game-changer in the fantasy playoffs.

I haven’t seen a lot of Boyd, but I think Golladay is the more-talented guy, in a more passer-friendly offense, and has a higher upside to be a true #1 (whereas Boyd will always be second fiddle as long as A.J. Green is around, and when he’s not around, then Boyd will be drawing the opposing team’s #1 cornerback).  Bell is a better fantasy back than Fournette, but he might not play at all this year (and even if he does, he’ll likely be in some fucked up timeshare).  And, the quarterbacks don’t matter because I have Wentz and Dalton; I’m just hanging onto Winston as a potential backup/injury replacement.

If you look at this trade from a perspective of just the 2018 season, it feels like a wash right now, with a lot of variables left to play out.  We won’t know the true effect on this season until it’s over.  If you look at it from a keeper perspective, then yeah, Le’Veon Bell is the prize pig in this thing; I was never in a million years going to keep Darnold, because I already have a QB I like in Wentz, and I highly doubt he’s going to look even remotely promising between now and the end of the year.  But, of course, our league could choose to vote keepers out next year, at which point I did all this for nothing.  So, yeah, good talk.

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz vs. DAL
  • QB2 – Andy Dalton vs. NO
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill vs. ARI
  • WR2 – Robert Woods vs. SEA
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott @ PHI
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson @ TB
  • TE – Greg Olsen @ PIT
  • FLEX – Tyler Boyd vs. NO
  • K – Matt Prater @ CHI
  • DEF – Chicago vs. DET

My bench is:  Thielen (BYE), Carr, Bell, Carson, Winston, Devonta Freeman (IR).

I keep telling people how frustrating this year is, and that “I like my team,” but that’s starting to not be so true anymore.  I DON’T like this team!  It’s underperforming like a mofo!  Hence my willingness to do this blockbuster deal.  I have bad matchups every week, I’m playing the league’s toughest schedule, everything is fucked and I fucking hate fantasy football.

This week’s huge embarrassing failure will be at the hands of my Week 1 opponent, Crazy N8’s Prostates.  You may recall he beat me by less than 3 points because Derek Carr is a fucking piece of shit (but, I’m the guy who’s kept him on my roster all year long, so who’s REALLY the fucking piece of shit in this scenario?).  He’s got some decent players on BYE, but what does that mean?  Nothing means anything!  Here you go:

  • QB1 – Alex Smith @ TB
  • QB2 – Josh Rosen @ KC
  • WR1 – Keenan Allen @ OAK
  • WR2 – Odell Beckham Jr. @ SF
  • RB1 – James Conner vs. CAR
  • RB2 – David Johnson @ KC
  • TE – Travis Kelce vs. ARI
  • FLEX – Chris Thompson @ TB Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. MIA
  • K – Greg Zuerlein vs. SEA
  • DEF – Green Bay vs. MIA

His bench is:  Cousins (BYE), Courtland Sutton (BYE) Chris Thompson, Latavius Murray (BYE), Dez Bryant, Baltimore (BYE).

I see a lot of direct conflicts again between his guys and mine.  If the Redskins keep up or beat the Bucs, then Adrian Peterson will likely do well.  If they stink and have to throw to come back, then Alex Smith and Chris Thompson will likely dominate.  He has all the great matchups you could ever want:  Travis Kelce, who will surely poach all the TDs away from Tyreek Hill; the two Arizona guys going up against Kansas City’s nothing defense; Keenan Allen going up against the Raiders’ nothing defense; and ODB going up against the 49ers’ nothing defense.  Zuerlein is going to make a minimum of three 50-yard field goals to spite me (as I’m sure Robert Woods will go scoreless yet again).  I wish I was fucking dead.

I’m predicting a comfortable defeat this week.  One of my quarterbacks will shit the bed, my skill guys will continue to disappoint, and I’m sure the Lions’ offense will just shred the Bears’ defense (and me without my Golladay to boot!).

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:  Crazy N8’s Prostates is trying to make a mockery of my weekly blogging about my fantasy team by making post-Thursday morning roster moves.  Courtland Sutton hits the waiver wire, and Green Bay’s new #2 receiver hits the FLEX thanks to a Chris Thompson injury (ruled out this week, which gives me more hope for Adrian Peterson).

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 1

See my Intro to understand what this is all about.

See my Draft Recap to see where we are heading into the first week of the season.

I’ll be the first to admit I obsess WAY TOO MUCH about fantasy football.  Thinking about my roster, listening to podcasts, reading articles, pouring over the rankings of other people, scouring the waiver wire for potential pick-ups, conjuring trades to try and swindle my friends out of their elite players.  My productivity in general takes a HUGE hit during the football season for those reasons and many others, but I’m no more insane than I am in the lead-up to Week 1.

It’s no more or less important than any other regular season week, but it FEELS like the most important game of the season.  At the same time, I’ve been trying my best in recent years not to tinker too much with my roster before I’ve actually had a chance to see these guys play.  I mean, if I liked these guys enough to draft them a week ago, why am I sitting here second-guessing myself before they’ve done anything to convince me they’re no good?

Last year, I think I managed to go all the way through the first week before making a roster change; this year I wasn’t as strong.  But, I feel I had a good reason:  the Bears made a huge trade for Khalil Mack over the weekend – the day AFTER I drafted Baltimore’s defense – so I used my relatively high waiver priority (3rd in the league) to swap defenses.

My draft strategy this year was simple:  wait until the very last minute to draft a defense.  There are a few you have to feel good about – the Rams, the Jags, the Vikings, maybe the Eagles – but a lot of the time, defense is about matchups.  Likewise, there are countless stories of defenses that came out of nowhere to lead the fantasy league in points, just as there are countless stories of supposedly-elite defenses succumbing to age or injury or simple over-rating.  Why get caught up in the fervor of taking one of the top pre-season defenses early in the draft when you can get one pretty close to just as good at the end of the draft or on waivers after the first week.  So, in this league, I picked up the Ravens’ defense, because they’re going up against Buffalo in Week 1, and that felt like a good one to stream against until some other team popped out as one to go with from Week 2 onward (or, if I got lucky, and the Ravens’ defense was really good in general – and not just against the Bills – then I just got them in the next-to-last round while the suckers in my league wasted precious earlier draft picks on the same quality).

The thing is, even heading into the draft, I liked Chicago’s defense as a possible sleeper.  I think Vic Fangio is an excellent defensive coordinator – on a tier just below Wade Phillips – and I seemed to remember them really going hard after young talent in the draft on this side of the ball.  They seemed poised like a breakout candidate BEFORE trading for Mack; now that they have him, and his sack potential, I like the Bears enough to make them my ONLY defense.

Also, not for nothing, but I like my bench players an awful lot (heading into Week 1, my bench includes:  Greg Olsen, Carson Wentz, Robert Woods, Adrian Peterson, and Kenny Stills).  I don’t want to drop ANY of those guys at the moment, as I feel like they could all play important roles on my team this year.  If I did have to drop someone, it would likely be one of those two receivers, so seeing how they both look in the first week is going to be critical in my line of thinking going forward (gun to my head:  I’d probably choose Woods over Stills, as I like the Rams’ offense more than Miami’s; but Stills could end up as the Dolphins’ best receiver this year, while the Rams have a lot of guys who will divide Goff’s attention).

Anyway, how I plan to do this is I’m going to write up my thought process heading into the week ahead of time, that way my rationale won’t be tainted by events that already happened.  You’re going to know exactly what I’m thinking heading into this week, because I’m writing it before the games start.  Then, I’m going to write a section after the fact, letting you know how my week went.  So, without further ado:

My Rationale Beforehand

Here’s my roster for Week 1:

  • QB1 – Derek Carr vs. LAR
  • QB2 – Andy Dalton @ IND
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill @ LAC
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen vs. SF
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott @ CAR
  • RB2 – Leonard Fournette @ NYG
  • TE – Jordan Reed @ AZ
  • FLEX – Demaryius Thomas vs. SEA
  • K – Robbie Gould @ MIN
  • DEF – Chicago @ GB

Obviously, if Wentz was healthy, he’d be my QB1 and I’d probably end up sitting Carr this week.  On waivers, the available QBs (at the time of this writing) are Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and both Bills quarterbacks.  Of those guys, I might marginally prefer Taylor to Carr based on matchups (I could see Carr getting in trouble against that Rams defense, while Taylor is always careful with the football and the Steelers don’t really pose much of a threat to make his life miserable), but not enough to make a roster change.  I have a lot riding on Carr this year, based on the fact that I drafted him so high and because I believe the Raiders will be throwing a lot, so I kinda need him to work out for me early in the season.

I don’t have a lot to say about my starting WRs and RBs; they seem pretty self-explanatory.  I will say that I’m pretty confident about my FLEX guy as well, as I think Thomas could have a field day against this Seahawks defense.  For what it’s worth, I like Emmanuel Sanders a lot this year, but not particularly in this game.  The Broncos tend to move Thomas around quite a bit, and honestly I don’t see him going to Griffin’s side as much as Sanders.  I don’t think they play Thomas in the slot very much, so that negates Justin Coleman’s impact.  If I’m right, and Thomas is lining up opposite of Griffin’s side on the other end, I think 150 yards and a TD or two is well within his capabilities.  If I wasn’t playing Thomas, I would’ve gone with AP, but I’d like to take a wait-and-see approach with the veteran running back before I commit to giving him regular time in my fantasy lineup.

My biggest sticking point is in my TE spot, where I’ve already waffled once and it wouldn’t shock me if I waffled again.

Here’s the deal:  I drafted Olsen in the 8th round.  As I noted previously, I didn’t intend to use that high of a pick on a tight end this year, seemingly content with taking the leftover scraps.  But, Olsen was sitting there, and I would’ve felt like a fool if I’d let him drop any further.  He’s obviously a tremendous talent, both in fantasy and in real life, and in a usual circumstance, I’d be happy to start him against the Cowboys.  But, then in the 12th round, Jordan Reed was sitting there.  He’s got Alex Smith throwing to him.  He’s in an offense that utilizes the tight end to a great extent even before Alex Smith got there.  And, it’s week 1.  He’s healthy!  He’s probably as healthy as he’s ever going to be.  Indeed, I wouldn’t be shocked if this was the last chance I got to start him, that’s how fragile he is!  He’s going up against the Cardinals, which feels like a juicy matchup, and they’re on the road, so I expect the Redskins will need to throw the ball more than they would if they were at home and more likely to be sitting on a lead in the 4th quarter.  Ultimately, I feel like there’s better touchdown potential for someone like Reed over someone like Olsen, factoring in everything around both players.  The Panthers just have more weapons on offense, and I don’t believe Cam will be as inclined to look for his TE in the red zone as Smith will be.  We’ll see; I have a feeling I’m going to regret whatever I do here.

Also, thinking long term, I fucked up when I took Reed, because both players have Week 4 byes, which means if they both stay healthy between now and then, I either have to drop a really productive guy, or I’ll have to roster a third tight end for a week (or I guess I could take a 0 at that spot for one game, but that seems idiotic that early in the season).

Anyway, that’s that.  Below, read about how my fantasy week went.

***

Week 1 Results

Well, I didn’t want to believe it, but Derek Carr fucked me ALREADY!

I had a 20-point lead heading into Monday Night.  I had Carr left to go; usually, when you’re winning and you have a quarterback still to play, you’re in pretty excellent shape.  I want to say I was an 80% favorite heading into the night.  My opponent, Crazy N8’s Prostates, had Marvin Jones and the Rams’ kicker.  It was a lock, right?

Not so fucking fast.

If Carr had just thrown a single TD, I would’ve won.  If he’d just thrown TWO interceptions – instead of three – I would’ve won.  If Legatron had just missed one of those field goals (he ended up with 17 points in total), I would’ve won.  Instead, I’m a 3-point loser and everything is meaningless.

For a while there, I was looking like a genius with the Bears defense.  I also looked like a fucking boner, because remember how I had to drop Baltimore’s defense to pick up the Bears?  Well, not only did they go off (to the tune of 31 points in our league, way over their expected 17.12), but they went off FOR MY OPPONENT (who picked them up and played them against me!).  At one time, with Aaron Rodgers out of the game, the Bears had 35 points, but then the Packers started scoring, so that total fell to 20 (still well above the expected 9.06 Yahoo projected).

My big decision of Jordan Reed over Greg Olsen ended up panning out somewhat, with Olsen being the one to leave his game with an injury.  Reed beat Olsen by 9.5 points, so bully for me.

That Fournette injury is obviously a concern.  He was on his way to a monster day, but I guess his injury woes aren’t behind him.  Now, every time I have him in my lineup, I have to wonder if he’s going to get me 30 points or 3 points.  As long as Adrian Peterson is healthy – and in a plus matchup – I really have to consider putting him in there more often.

Demaryius Thomas acquitted himself well as my FLEX guy.  Predictably, the Seahawks’ defense posed little threat.  The bigger threat is Keenum’s rapport with Emmanuel Sanders, who went OFF in that game.  Still, my value pick is looking solid so far.

My biggest shining star was Tyreek Hill, who blew up to the tune of 46.10 points this week (he led all non-Fitzmagic players in my league).  He almost pulled my ass out of the fire, but you just can’t overcome a 3-point week out of your top available QB.

Crazy N8’s Prostates’ lineup looked like this:

  • QB1 – Kirk Cousins vs. SF
  • QB2 – Alex Smith @ AZ
  • WR1 – ODB vs. JAX
  • WR2 – Keenan Allen vs. KC
  • RB1 – Shady McCoy @ BAL
  • RB2 – David Johnson vs. WAS
  • TE – Travis Kelce @ LAC
  • FLEX – Marvin Jones vs. NYJ
  • K – Greg Zuerlein @ OAK
  • DEF – Baltimore vs. BUF

I ended up being the highest scorer of all the losers and had the third-highest points in the league this week.  Pretty sad state of affairs, all things considered.  Carson Wentz can’t come back soon enough.  Starting to think about picking up Fitzpatrick.  Things are looking bleak already!

Washington Lost To Auburn In The Stupidest Way Possible

Look, to try to recount every single way the Washington Huskies shot themselves in the foot would be an exercise in futility.  A Browning fumble here, a mind-boggling interception there, a missed field goal, a missed targeting penalty that falls on both the refs on the field and the replay review board … I mean, my blood is boiling the more I think about this shit.

The losers of these types of games always say this, but I’ll say it anyway:  THE BETTER TEAM LOST!  Auburn didn’t deserve that win.  But, I guess neither did Washington.

It’s not JUST Jake Browning’s fault, but boy does he carry his fair share of the burden.  The thing is, he didn’t totally shit the bed.  He threw for 296 yards and a 9.3 yard average.  I’d argue the play-calling did him little favors, and he compounded those by making things a million times worse.  I mean, if you’re throwing the ball away, THROW IT OUT OF FUCKING BOUNDS!  You’re a 4th year starter; that’s a mistake a true Freshman makes!  Also, if you’re going to run a fucking option play near the goalline, PITCH THE FUCKING BALL ON TIME!  Once again, it smacks of Browning trying to do too much; trying to shed this label of him not showing up in big games.  Just play within the offense and let your teammates make plays, THAT’S where Browning is elite.  We don’t need him to be Russell Wilson, we just need him to be Alex Smith and manage the fucking game.

Also, man, how soft was that defense?  They tightened up in the second half with some adjustments, but Auburn was still able to move the ball at will pretty much all game.  No turnovers, only 2 sacks, minimal pressure on the quarterback, and our vaunted secondary was picked apart!  Auburn’s mediocre quarterback was able to throw for 273 yards on 26/36 passing (and obviously a bevy of missed tackles were the shitty icing on top).

Just a fucking disaster from the get-go.  Obviously, it’s never good when your starting left tackle is hurt, but there should be enough depth on this team to compensate.  This was more about execution and I put as much of the blame on the coaching staff for not getting these players ready in time.  You had all off-season!  These looked like lost, scared little kids through most of the first half, and that’s on Coach Pete.

The shitty thing is that I don’t know how good Auburn really is.  They didn’t look particularly elite to me; I could easily see them losing 3-4 games this year.  We most likely lost to an inferior team in what was truly a home game for them, and losing that game will do us much more harm than the good of the fact that they’re on our schedule in the first place.

What I’m clinging to – because it feels wrong to abandon all hope on the season after 1 game – is that the Huskies are still a great team.  So great, in fact, that I have no doubt we can run the table if we catch a few breaks here and there.  Honestly, after some of the shit that’s gone down the last couple years, we DESERVE some breaks to go our fucking way!  I thought the passing game in general really stepped up in this one; we might not see a better defense the rest of the regular season.  So, that means we should be able to move the ball with regularity.

As predicted, this game came down to the Husky run game, and as I warned, if we ran for less than 150 yards as a team, we’d lose the game.  We ran for 102 on 33 carries.  Really, 8 of those carries were on the QB scrambling, so throw those away.  Our actual running backs had 24 carries for 111, which still isn’t great, but it’s a fine average.  Even though our pass game was getting big chunk plays, I thought we went away from the run too much.  I also thought the team should’ve used Salvon Ahmed more, as his quick burst as a change-of-pace to Gaskin was able to gash them pretty regularly.

So, yeah, SHITTY start to the season.  Got to put it behind us and get on with the rest of it.  There are a ton of games left in the college football season and when it comes time to decide the bowl/playoff teams, no one is really going to remember a whole lot about this Washington/Auburn game.  If I’m wrong and the Tigers are great, then the Huskies can hang their hats on playing them close; if I’m right and they’re mediocre, then whatever, it’s only one road loss in a tough environment against a pre-season top 10 team.  The Huskies have to take care of business the rest of the way, so let’s go to work.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: The All-Important Draft

See the first post in this series for what I’m talking about here.

Well, we did it.  I drafted my team and, if I do say so myself, I think I did a pretty good job!  Of course, I always say so myself, because why wouldn’t I?  I brought in these players, I must like them to some extent!  Because they’ve yet to disappoint me.

It’s all downhill from here.

As I talked about last time, my 3 keepers are Wentz, Fournette, and Elliott.  Since I had my RBs set, I didn’t have to focus on them too much in the early going.  So, after the first three rounds took care of the keepers, I went to work bolstering my WR unit.

I picked 8th, in every round.  I won’t list out every single pick, but I’ll at least show you the first round, to give you an idea of the players we had available:

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Saquon Barkley
  3. Melvin Gordon
  4. Cam Newton
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. Davante Adams
  7. Matthew Stafford

So, those were the guys taken right before me.  Both of the top QBs that were left out there, the top 3 RBs, and my two favorite WRs.  I was bound and determined to get a receiver; the available ones were:  A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Gronk (technically a TE, but still), T.Y. Hilton, and Tyreek Hill.  I went with Hill.  I like Mahomes a lot, I like that offense, I think Hill is a stud in the prime of his career who will be the focal point of that passing game (as opposed to the tight end-centric offense run under Alex Smith), and I just believe he has the highest upside to really blow out some games.

I should point out that all of those other receivers I listed off were taken by the time I drafted again.  I still wanted to go WR – to knock that position out of the way – even though I desperately needed a second QB (and, one might argue, a FIRST QB, since who knows when Wentz will be ready).  Adam Thielen was sitting there and he felt like an obvious pick, so I took him (the other WRs were Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, and Doug Baldwin; I think I made clearly the best choice).

By my next pick, all of those receivers were gone, as well as the next two best tight ends (Kelce and Ertz), so I went into the QB well.  No more QBs were taken after Cam & Stafford, so I had my pick of the shit-filled kitty litter.  I went with Derek Carr, upside over recent success.  I think he’ll be a transformed player under Jon Gruden and even if the Raiders are a terrible team, I think they’ll be behind in a lot of games and throwing the ball a ton.  Plus, they don’t really have a defined #1 RB (a respectable committee led by Beastmode), so I think this could be great for me.  The other QBs available were Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Blake “The Bort” Bortles, Dak Prescott, and Case Keenum.  Ben is obviously better, but I can’t trust him to play a full season.  I might regret not taking Alex Smith though.

When it came back to me, in Round 7, Demaryius Thomas was still sitting there at the top of the Yahoo rankings.  I needed a flex guy, and honestly the value I was getting for Denver’s #1 receiver was too good to pass up.  I might’ve gotten the steal of the draft, or he might be the bust that everyone is expecting.  We’ll see, I’ll take my chances.  By taking him, though, I missed out on Chris Carson, his teammate Emmanuel Sanders, Jacksonville’s defense, the Rams’ defense, Allen Robinson, and Corey Davis, among others.

In Round 8, I took the best tight end available (who was also among the best overall players available), Greg Olsen.  My plan going into the draft was to wait until one of the last three rounds to take a tight end (as well as a defense and a kicker), but Olsen is elite, and the drop-off in tight ends was significant (plus, like I said, he was one of the top players remaining).  I missed out on Marquise Goodwin, Mark Ingram, and Minnesota’s defense, among others.

Next, I started filling my bench, with Robert Woods leading the way.  At this point, I still haven’t grabbed a third RB, and that might be my undoing if I have injuries to my top two guys.  A run on RBs went right after I took Woods, with guys like Lynch, Peyton Barber, Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson, Dion Lewis, and Carlos Hyde all going off the board.

In Round 10, I went back to QB, because it’s always smart to have a competent third (in case of injuries, BYEs, or if Derek Carr really does suck), so I bought low on Andy Dalton.  In Round 10 of a 2-QB league, I think I got really good value on this one too.  Plus, I think everyone is severely underrating him this year, and I like him to bounce back in a big way.  I passed on Jameis Winson, because I can’t have his 3-game suspension hanging over my head if I don’t know Wentz’s status those weeks and I didn’t want to have to roster 4 QBs.  I also passed on guys like Mitch Trubisky, Mayfield & Darnold, Ryan Tannehill, and Eli Manning, which I’m okay with.

Next up, Adrian Peterson was still there, so I grabbed him.  I don’t know if that’s going to work out for me, but he’s a #1 RB in the 11th round, so beggars can’t be choosers.  The other RBs available were all backups or in time-shares (Latavius Murray, Sony Michel, James Conner, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, and Marlon Mack, among others).  If worse comes to worse and I need an RB off waivers, I’m sure I can find someone, so I’m not too worried about it.  If best comes to best, then in AP I have a 1,000-yard rusher on a good offense.  (I will say that I’m disappointed that Will Fuller V was taken 2 picks after this; I think he’s a stud).

In Round 12, Jordan Reed was still there, so I grabbed him.  Yep, the guy who was going to wait and take whatever TE was left over in the final rounds … ended up drafting TWO of them.  But, when healthy, Reed is a Top 3 TE.  And now he has Alex Smith throwing to him, the ultimate in TE-friendly QBs.  Plus, Greg Olsen is getting up there, so it’s nice to have some TE insurance.

In the lucky 13th round, I grabbed Kenny Stills.  All the podcasts I was listening to in the week leading up to the draft cited this guy as a potential break-out player.  Tannehill apparently loves him, he’s a target monster, and with Landry out of the picture, he should be the team’s #1.  I am CRUSHING this draft with all the value I’m getting!

In the final two rounds, I finally had to go grab a defense and a kicker.  I drafted Baltimore’s defense in the 14th, and ‘Frisco’s Robbie Gould in the 15th.  Whatever.

Yahoo’s stupid grading system put me in the middle of the pack with a B grade.  It hated my Derek Carr pick (about 6 rounds too early according to ADP?), but it loves my Thielen pick, as well as my RB keepers.  My team is the 2nd oldest in the league, which might be troubling; then again, my tendency is to draft a lot of young guys and where has it gotten me?  Nowhere near the championship trophy, that’s for damn sure.

So, we’ll see how it goes.  My schedule is one of the toughest in the league, so that’s fucking great.  Then again, why should I trust Yahoo’s grading?