Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Signs Of Life!

There are two keys to Nobody Beats The Wiz that you can bank on most weeks: my non-quarterbacks are pretty solid, and my actual quarterbacks are the fucking worst. That’s not the ONLY way to score in the 160’s in back-to-back weeks (which is a respectable number for our league; 170+ is good, under 150 is bad), but it happens to be MY way.

So, if the 160-range is to be my ceiling (which will be the case, as long as Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones continue to play like dogshit), then I’m going to need my opponents to not go off for crazy-good weeks. Thankfully (and FINALLY), someone obliged when I needed it the most. Nobody Beats The Wiz defeated Sloane N Steady 163.12 to 137.20.

My QBs combined for 30.40 points. That’s an average score for one quarterback having a good week. Wentz was going up against the Steelers and threw a last-second hail mary interception, otherwise I wouldn’t be so upset with his day. But, Jones eked out just over 10 points against a putrid Cowboys defense and I couldn’t be more despondent. Back to the quarterback drawing board in 2021 I guess!

As I alluded to above, the rest of my moves panned out! I made smart fantasy football decisions for once! Darius Slayton was an INSPIRED choice over Odell Beckham Jr. My guy got almost 10 more points over ODB. Including Slayton and Wentz, I had five guys score over 20 points (CeeDee Lamb is a Must Start every week, even with Dak lost for the season). No one else really even deserves to be singled out for poor performance, that’s how pleased I am with my non-QB roster!

Sloane N Steady just had an off-game, highlighted by his quarterbacks also struggling mightily (they combined for 32.10 points to beat my duds, but still vastly underwhelm); he had three guys get under 10 points in this one to seal his fate.

My only roster move actually took place over the weekend. As soon as Yahoo! allowed me to put Noah Fant in my IR spot for the week (because he was ruled out, right before the Broncos game ended up getting postponed to next week), I picked up the Chargers’ defense. Not so I could employ them last week, but absolutely so I could employ them this upcoming week! They’re playing the Jets, and while I like Indy’s defense in pretty much any situation, when you have an opportunity to use the defense that’s going up against the Jets, you have to take advantage! And just like that, the Chargers/Jets game has been moved to Week 11 thanks to COVID schedule shuffling around the league. So, I guess that brilliant idea is out!

This week, Nobody Beats The Wiz goes up against Space Forcin’. This is always a killer matchup for me, as I seem to lose to this guy every fucking time that I play him. It doesn’t matter how good his team is over the decades we’ve been playing against one another, but lately he’s had a lot of elite-level talent as his keepers and it makes beating him a huge struggle.

BYE weeks affect us both, but probably him a little more than me. I will be without Josh Jacobs, so my three-headed running back hydra is down a head. Thankfully, I have my full assortment of healthy receivers at my disposal. He will be without Saints back Alvin Kamara and Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett, so I feel like those are pretty huge bullets dodged. But, he does get Davante Adams back from injury which is pretty scary. First, here’s what my lineup is looking like:

  • Carson Wentz (QB) vs. BAL
  • Daniel Jones (QB) vs. WAS
  • Odell Beckham Jr. (WR) @ PIT
  • A.J. Brown (WR) vs. HOU
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) vs. ARI
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) @ BUF
  • Jimmy Graham (TE) @ CAR
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs. ARI
  • Harrison Butker (K) @ BUF
  • Indianapolis (DEF) vs. CIN

My already-abysmal quarterbacks have even MORE abysmal matchups. The silver lining for Wentz is that the Eagles will probably be losing heavily to the Ravens and have to throw to get back in the game; the downside is the Eagles might very well be losing BECAUSE Wentz is throwing picks and otherwise ineffective. As for Jones, I think you’d be hard pressed to find a worse matchup. The Washington Football Team isn’t anything special, but they have a great defensive line that can get a lot of sacks; the Giants have one of the worst offensive lines in all respects, so we’re almost certainly looking at another long day for Jones.

Ezekiel Elliott figures to be my MVP going forward, with Dak Prescott out for the season. I assume Dallas will be riding him all day long. That also puts into question Lamb’s value as the #2 receiver on that team. Andy Dalton is no slouch (well, he’s only SORT OF a slouch), but with the Cowboys defense being as bad as it is, I still expect they’ll need to throw the ball quite a bit. I just think it’ll be a little more balanced going forward, now that their starting quarterback isn’t someone who is trying to re-set the entire quarterback market behind Patrick Mahomes. Lamb is a true focal point for the passing game and I don’t think that will change one iota the rest of the way (unless Dalton gets injured, then I’ll be worried).

I don’t love CEH’s potential against that Buffalo defense; but I DO love Butker’s potential in the kicking game. That could be a game where the Chiefs kick a lot of field goals, so maybe he’ll make up for CEH’s lack of production a little bit.

I’m not super high on my starting receivers. I could see myself flip-flopping a bunch of these guys before Sunday rolls around. Indeed, the flip-flopping has already started, as just before writing this, I inserted A.J. Brown over Darius Slayton. Brown returned from injury and played well on Tuesday against the Bills. That gives me all the confidence I need to roll with him against the Texans. I really want to find a way to get Deebo Samuel into my lineup, but I think patience is going to be the play with the 49ers until their offense gets rolling again.

Here’s what we’re looking at with Space Forcin’ this week:

  • Patrick Mahomes (QB) @ BUF
  • Tom Brady (QB) vs. GB
  • Cooper Kupp (WR) @ SF
  • Robby Anderson (WR) vs. CHI
  • Chase Edmonds (RB) @ DAL
  • Antonio GIbson (RB) @ NYG
  • Zach Ertz (TE) vs. BAL
  • Davante Adams (WR) @ TB
  • TBD (K) vs. TBD
  • Baltimore (DEF) @ PHI

Well, I thought I MIGHT have caught a break with his quarterbacks not having the greatest matchups, but that was before I saw the Bills let Ryan Tannehill have a career day on Tuesday. Considering Mahomes is coming off of his first defeat of the season, I’m sure he’ll be good and pissed off and ready to throw seven TDs against me the Bills. Also, the Bills figure to be among the top AFC teams vying for that #1 seed, so a Chiefs victory will be doubly important (motivation won’t be an issue, in other words). As for Brady, who knows what we’ll see from week to week? Or from quarter to quarter?! He’s old and has a noodle arm, but he’s also a Hall of Famer and there must still be some magic in that old silk hat he found …

As I expected, as soon as Davante Adams was cleared to play, Space Forcin’ found room in his lineup for him. David Johnson, the Texans’ running back, was benched in his place. In the only game Adams was fully healthy for this year, he put up over 40 points. With the way that Packers offense is humming along, this move will likely seal my fate.

Also, don’t think I’m not HIGHLY annoyed by the fact that he has Zach Ertz – Carson Wentz’s number one target in an offense lacking in receiving weapons – who will probably catch 20 balls and wrangle in all the receiving TDs. Just a little insult to injury in what should be a massive blowout loss for Nobody Beats The Wiz.

Just when I clawed my way into 8th place, with a 2-3 record. I still have the second-fewest total points, but the team with the third-fewest total points is currently 4-1 and sitting in second place in the league. So, there’s hope for me yet! Not this week, of course. Space Forcin’ is 3-2 and has the second-MOST total points (and that’s, again, with a number of injuries to key players throughout this season). I would need a miracle just to keep it close.

Which is why I don’t fully understand why Yahoo! has me projected to win by almost 9 points. Granted, Space Forcin’ doesn’t have a kicker yet – and thanks to his roster construction, might not want to drop anyone to pick one up – but I really don’t think that will matter. On paper, everything always looks fine for Nobody Beats The Wiz! And then the games start, and my team proceeds to get trounced.

I’m not falling for the bullshit lies anymore, Yahoo! You hear me?! So can it!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Corona-Draft Prep

  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE

Well, the keepers are set in place, and now I get to look forward to our draft this Friday. There were some minor surprises – and a couple big ones – so without further ado, let’s take a quick glance at how wrong I was about my projected keepers for the rest of the league:

  1. Russell Wilson, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Godwin, Matt Ryan (all correct)
  2. Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, James Conner, Travis Kelce (Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Ingram, and Keenan Allen all available to draft)
  3. Deshaun Watson, George Kittle, Derrick Henry, Cam Newton (Aaron Jones)
  4. Jared Goff, Drew Lock, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster (A.J. Brown and Raheem Mostert)
  5. Kyler Murray, Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon (Mike Evans)
  6. Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen (Amari Cooper)
  7. Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett (all correct)
  8. Jimmy Garoppolo, Tyreek Hill, Gardner Minshew, Todd Gurley (Matthew Stafford)
  9. Lamar Jackson, Julio Jones, Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold)

I remember being MUCH more successful in predicting my league’s keepers before last season, so I don’t know what that says about me or the state of the NFL right now, but it makes the upcoming draft more interesting!

Until I saw the actual keepers, I wasn’t too thrilled about my prospects as the guy with the #2 overall draft pick. It just seemed like there wouldn’t be anyone really dominating for me to select. BUT, I see two guys among the leftovers who are VERY exciting! Not just for 2020, but for many years to come potentially!

Of this group, Mike Evans and Aaron Jones are both VERY enticing to me. Either one of them could fall to me and I’d be ecstatic with whoever I get. I know I bemoaned Tom Brady’s noodle arm last week, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be interested in the weapons he has to throw to. For starters, Brady isn’t totally inept; he hasn’t fallen completely off the cliff just yet. While Mike Evans has been mostly a deep threat thus far in his career, he still has a ton of value as a red zone target, and should thrive with someone like Brady throwing jump balls his way. If, by the grace of all that is holy, both Evans and Jones were to fall to me, I’d have to go with Evans simply because the drop-off at receiver is so steep among him and the rest of the leftovers.

Odell Beckham Jr. is, of course, one of those leftovers. I can’t say that I agree with exposing him to the rest of the league while keeping someone like Josh Allen, but you know, there’s a reason why I haven’t won a league championship in the fantasy trophy era (2010-Present). I think the Cleveland Browns – and by extension, their players – are pretty underrated in 2020, after being so very OVER-rated heading into 2019, so there could be some good value in guys like ODB and Baker Mayfield. If I picked lower in the first round, I’d be over the moon if someone like ODB fell to me; someone is going to get an absolute steal.

Aaron Jones was one of the best running backs in all of football last year, at least from a fantasy perspective. So, it’s shocking to see him available. But, it’s telling that he is, because the owner who exposed him is also a lifelong Packers fan. If HE’S not keeping Aaron Jones, there must be a reason (he’s also the reigning league champion, but that’s in spite of him auto-drafting last year, as well as never checking his e-mail, so we’re all in agreement that this was a fluke, and if his wife weren’t cc’d on all league e-mails, we’d probably never hear from him again). I have to believe Aaron Jones still has a lot of value, though, so if Mike Evans goes to the guy drafting #1 overall, I’m okay with nabbing Jones, even though I’ve already kept two running backs. There’s still the FLEX spot, and there are only so many bona fide, workhorse running backs in the league, so you really can’t have too many.

That would, of course, necessitate my drafting wide receivers in both the second and third rounds (which might see me needing to reach for some lesser players, but that’s the price you pay, I guess).

As I stated before, I still haven’t done a ton of research heading into the draft, as my objective at this point is still to mostly go by what Yahoo tells me. But, to pique my curiosity, I checked the season projections and found some surprising guys among the leftovers.

Miles Sanders, running back for the Eagles, is rated VERY high. Even higher than Aaron Jones! I can’t remember the last time an Eagles running back was worth more than an in-season free agent pickup (probably Shady McCoy), because they so often are in a time-share with multiple backs. But, he’s been definitively named the starter by the head coach, which is saying a lot but also not saying anything at all. Why would the head coach be motivated to give away such news for free to the rest of the league? Also, there’s no saying he has to stick with that, if Sanders under-produces or gets hurt. Sanders was really good towards the end of last year though, so I think that’s where the hope lies.

Not ODB nor Mike Evans is the highest-ranked wide receiver remaining; that falls to Allen Robinson of the Bears. I don’t totally get that, but ESPN also has him ranked pretty high, so I guess I have to believe it. With Chicago’s quarterback situation being what it is, I don’t have ANY faith in any of their players, but if he somehow falls to the second round, I might have to take him anyway.

Kenny Golladay is also rated above ODB and Evans, and he seems like a safer pick. He has elite talent, and Matthew Stafford is healthy again. It’s looking highly likely that MANY wide receivers are going to fly off the board in the first three rounds of our draft, so I’ll be interested to see who I’m able to grab.

Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, and Darren Waller are the three tight ends I’m looking at right now. Andrews is probably the only guy worth reaching for (maybe in the second or third round, if he’s still there), but if the draft doesn’t fall the way I want it to, I have no problem waiting until the end of the draft to pick up a tight end. There will be someone on waivers worth claiming in the first week or two of the regular season.

I need to resist the urge to get a third quarterback too early, but there are LOTS of veteran options out there (who I would anticipate get snapped up before I have a chance), including Drew Brees, Brady, Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, and Tyrod Taylor. There’s also Baker Mayfield, who still has a lot of potential to be great, as well as Darnold and Dwayne Haskins (who stunk last year, but is still young enough to turn it around). And then, of course, there are the rookies. The more I think about it, the less inclined I am to want to reach too early for any of them. I also wonder if Joe Burrow won’t be the first overall player taken in the draft, considering the guy picking there and how badly he’s been looking to shore up his QB spots. Having Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow for the next generation might be too tantalizing to pass up.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Here We Fucking Go Again

If you want to read about my 2019 fantasy football season, click HERE and you can see all the prior links at the top. And, if you want to read about my 2018 season (which has a lot of good info at the beginning about how our league works), click HERE.

Note: please don’t go back and read all of that. There’s a reason why this series is called, “Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team”. You’ve been warned; this isn’t necessarily a generic fantasy football column like you may be used to, this is specifically about MY team, and if the players I write about happen to be relevant to your situation, then all the better, I guess.

Just a quick reminder: this is a 10-team, 2-quarterback PPR league where quarterback points are slightly inflated compared to standard leagues (20 yards per point, 6 points per TD, -4 points per INT). So, you know, it’s pretty important to have a couple quality quarterbacks.

We had our annual fantasy football meeting last week, without much tweaking of the rules. For our purposes, the league season only counts – as it relates to the championship and related prizes therein – if the NFL completes nine regular season weeks. I don’t think that will be much of an issue, but apparently we have to account for these things in these COVID times. We also are allowed one extra IR spot (on top of the IR spot we already get) specifically if someone is diagnosed with COVID and placed on leave accordingly. Seems unlikely that anyone super good will catch it, so I’m not too concerned.

It’s another year with four keepers, so here are mine:

  • Carson Wentz (QB)
  • Daniel Jones (QB)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  • Josh Jacobs (RB)

The only holdovers from my 2018 squad are Wentz and Elliott. I made an ill-advised trade for Tom Brady midway through last year – costing me Tyreek Hill in the process – and for that I have much regret. Nevertheless, Danny Dimes looks like he has true stud potential, and as someone I held onto all year in spite of not playing him very regularly, I’m pretty devoted to seeing how he plays out in his second season in the league. Josh Jacobs, from the moment I drafted him, was someone I eyeballed as a potential keeper for years to come (and someone I see has a HUGE upgrade over LeVeon Bell, who was mired on a terrible Jets team with a God-awful offensive line).

The only other serious contenders as keepers were the aforementioned Tom Brady and Le’Veon Bell. Brady is REALLY intriguing, as we all know he’s now in Tampa, with a ton of weapons, and with an offensive-minded head coach in Bruce Arians. Like many around football, I’m not totally sold on Carson Wentz. The bloom is off the rose with him, even though he played in all 16 games, had a career high in passing yards (4,039) in spite of having no great wide receiver options to throw to, and still had a very commendable 27:7 TD:INT ratio. I don’t know if the weapons situation is all that much improved, but they went after wide receiver HARD in the draft, and hopefully will see some younger guys from prior seasons step up. So, there was a serious look at Brady over Wentz, but in the end Brady is just so old, and that noodle arm looked SO feeble last year. The offense under Arians tends to feature a lot of deep downfield plays in the passing game. I could see Brady starting off the season on fire, but when I would need him the most – in the fantasy playoffs – I just don’t think he’ll have it. Besides that, Wentz is obviously still very young and should still be viable for many more years; Brady is on his very final legs and could be forced into retirement at any time.

As for Bell, I couldn’t tell you what the Jets have done to bolster their O-Line (other than pay a lot of money to George Fant to be their left tackle, a position he’d rarely been asked to play as a member of the Seahawks). I don’t know if I totally buy Bell as still having it. He was a steady fantasy player last year, but he’s getting up there as well, and if that offense continues to struggle, I don’t know if I see him having a lot of TD opportunities. I’m of the opinion that Jacobs will be a superstar, and Elliott already IS a superstar. Kind of a no-brainer there.

In coming in second place in the Consolation Bracket last season, I earned the second overall draft pick in the upcoming draft on Friday, September 4th. This presents me with a unique opportunity. The deadline for everyone to declare their keepers is this Friday, August 28th, so before next week’s column, I should know who’s available to me.

Since there isn’t a ton to write about this early in the pre-season, I’ll try to take a stab at guessing who the keepers will be for the other nine teams (with guys in parentheses being alternate options):

  1. Russell Wilson, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Godwin, Matt Ryan (Tyler Boyd)
  2. Dak Prescott, Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Ingram, Travis Kelce (Keenan Allen)
  3. Deshaun Watson, George Kittle, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones (Cam Newton)
  4. DeAndre Hopkins, Jared Goff, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster (Raheem Mostert)
  5. Kyler Murray, Michael Thomas, Saquon Barkley, Mike Evans (Joe Mixon)
  6. Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Amari Cooper (Adam Thielen)
  7. Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett (Zach Ertz)
  8. Tyreek Hill, Jimmy Garoppolo, Todd Gurley, Matthew Stafford (Gardner Minshew)
  9. Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake, Baker Mayfield, Julio Jones (Austin Ekeler, Sam Darnold)

Honestly, I’m not in love with any of these potential leftovers. I’m tempted to more or less auto-draft. I’m happy with my keepers, but I was REALLY hoping there’d be someone super exciting for me to select with my #2 overall pick. Thankfully, we have a straight draft, so I’m #2 in every round. By auto-drafting, I figure I can’t do much worse than I’ve been doing over these last dozen or so years.

I haven’t done much of any research so far this off-season, and I don’t know what I’ll end up getting to prior to the draft. My hunch is: not much. Again, being prepared hasn’t done a damn thing for me; my name sure as shit isn’t on that league trophy, I’ll tell you that much!

One idea I’ve been mulling over is using my #2 overall pick on one of the incoming rookies. I have three players in mind, two of them being the most prominent rookie quarterbacks: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. Gun to my head: I like Tua more than Burrow. But, he’s projected to start this season as Miami’s backup, and their BYE week isn’t until Week 11. So, either Ryan Fitzpatrick sucks and Tua’s thrown to the wolves prematurely, and without a proper BYE week to prepare, or FitzMagic continues to do his thing and we don’t see Tua until very late in the season. The point being: there’s a great chance Tua doesn’t help me much at all this year, and I’d be throwing away yet another season trying to get my shit together when it comes to the quarterback position (with a very small, but important chance that Tua is the next Mahomes and I’d be missing out on my one and only opportunity at getting in on his ground floor).

It just figures that I have this great draft pick for the first time in YEARS, and there are no real stud running backs that would change the course of my fantasy franchise for years to come. Where’s MY Saquon Barkley?!

We’ll see, though. Once the keepers are locked in place, I’ll hop back into the league site and see who Yahoo thinks I should take. It does seem kind of idiotic to have a third quarterback on my roster before even getting ONE wide receiver. At some point, I need to stop playing for the future and start playing for today.

How many times have I admonished myself the last few years by saying that very same thing?

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2019: Fucking Sick Of This Shit

On Saturday night, I asked my brother who he would start: Robert Woods or Jamison Crowder. I ended up going with Woods because I paired him with Kupp and I liked at least ONE of those guys to go off against the Bears. I didn’t expect the Rams to continue to look so fucking inept on offense. And I CERTAINLY didn’t expect Woods to be a surprise healthy scratch because of some personal issue that we weren’t privy to until maybe an hour or two before gametime; when ALL of my other players were fucking dead to me.

I ended up dropping Darius Slayton for Sammy Watkins, going for the Chiefs on Monday Night. I could’ve had Josh Reynolds, but the Chiefs receiver looked like the safer play. High-flying offense against a mediocre defense, surely would do the trick! It ended up not mattering either way.

Of course, the rest of my team fucking SUCKED. I got a combined 27 points out of Brady and Wentz which fucking murdered me. So, I went into the Monday Night game essentially tied with my opponent. He had Rivers, I had Watkins. Tyreek Hill even got injured for me pretty early on to help out the cause! But, Watkins is fucking over the hill and useless from a fantasy perspective, so he got me 4.6 points. Rivers was totally fucking worthless as well, but at least through his 4 interceptions he still managed 9.65. I lost to Sloane N Steady 138.89-133.50. If I’d played Crowder, I would’ve won.

Honestly, the main reason I didn’t play him is because he’d already had two good games in a row; what were the odds a Jets receiver would have THREE in a row? I also thought the Redskins’ defense was slightly frisky (they’re not). Plus, I got burned the week prior when I tinkered with my lineup on a Saturday night; now I’ve been burned by NOT tinkering. I can’t do anything right.

I truly, truly fucking hate this game. It ruins every weekend for me. I don’t know why I keep playing fantasy football. I hope the league disbands and I never have to play again.

***

I’m now 5-6, in 8th place out of 10 teams, two spots out of the playoffs. I’ve underperformed my projections in 9 out of 11 weeks now. I’m down to the 8th most points scored and what does it even fucking matter how many I’ve had scored against me? I should be on a 5-game winning streak, but my team fucking shits the bed at every turn. There are two more weeks. I somehow still have an outside shot – as there are two other 5-6 teams ahead of me in total points – but I need help. I think I’ve got a decent shot of going 1-1 in the final two weeks of the regular season, which means I need both teams ahead of me to lose out. It can be done, but it would be the silliest back-door entry into the playoffs anyone’s ever seen.

***

I immediately dropped Sammy Watkins on Tuesday morning because fuck that turd. I didn’t put any waiver claims out there because honestly I don’t know. I wasn’t inspired. Nobody out on the scrap heap looked better than my guys; at least no one I’d want to go to any trouble for. The rest of the league was pretty active. I waited until Wednesday morning, then re-claimed Darius Slayton off of Free Agency, dropping Robert Woods. That guy seems like bad luck from a fantasy perspective, and if I’m gonna be out of it, I might as well go down with a rookie with high upside. Who knows, maybe in the Consolation Bracket playoffs, I’ll start him and Danny Dimes and watch them do their things.

I’m also thinking it’s time to drop A.J. Green. He’s been on my bench/IR spot all season, but lately it’s more trouble than it’s probably going to be worth. He keeps reverting back to ineligible for the IR spot – because he’s effectively week-to-week – but it’s looking less and less likely that he’s going to ever return. Besides that, the Bengals are obviously in Lose-Now mode by going with the younger QB (who sucks), so what upside does Green have even if he DOES come back for the fantasy playoffs? Probably not much. Certainly not more than Kupp or Crowder or any of the receivers I could pick up off waivers. So, before Sunday, I could see myself making another roster move; but at this point I don’t see myself using up a waiver claim unless someone special pops up.

***

My lineup is pretty set at this point for the stretch run. I’ve got Brady vs. Dallas and Wentz vs. the Seahawks. They should be okay. My running backs are really the only guys not totally letting me down; Zeke, Bell, and Jacobs all have decent-to-good matchups. The Disappearing Cooper Kupp has to face Baltimore’s ravenous defense on Monday Night, so let’s hope I’m somehow able to lock things up before then. I actually am going to start Crowder this week at home against the Raiders, WHAT ARE THE ODDS HE HAS FOUR GOOD GAMES IN A ROW??? Pretty fucking negligible, I’d say. Then, there’s Waller, Tucker, and Buffalo hosting Denver, so whatever.

My Space Pirates are going up against our biggest nemesis: Space Forcin’. I’m catching him on a Mahomes BYE – which was really my only hope of beating him – but the rest of his team is still stacked, led by Kamara, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett, and Zach Ertz who will absolutely dominate the Seahawks this week.

Did I mention I fucking hate fantasy football? I wish everyone was dead.

The Seahawks Should Have Their Best Game Of 2019 (To Date) In Arizona This Weekend

The Cardinals’ defense is terrible. Let’s just get that out there. If the Seahawks don’t surpass 30 points in this one, then I don’t know what to say. Russell Wilson should have no trouble moving the ball down the field, and more importantly, our running game should finally bust out into something much more formidable.

I mean, I don’t really have much more to say beyond that. The Cardinals, in theory anyway, have a good offense, but that’s yet to translate to really eye-opening numbers. They’ve been fine. They have a rookie quarterback, a terrible offensive line, and a shaky rushing attack. It’s looking like they’re making baby steps every week towards being an elite force offensively, but at the moment, they haven’t yet put it all together. Could this be the week? It’s entirely possible! But, regardless, I still think we can outscore them in a shootout.

If I had to force a reason to be concerned, I guess I could get into all the myriad ways the Seahawks could do dumb shit and lose to another team they should beat, but how do you top that Saints game? How do you top a punt return for a touchdown (off of a seriously crappy punt), a third straight game with a fumble for Chris Carson, a return for another touchdown ON that fumble, a “lining up over the long-snapper” penalty that turned a missed field goal into an eventual touchdown, and Alvin Kamara being an immortal god incapable of being slowed down even for an instant by the Seahawks’ defense?

On the plus side, there isn’t anyone NEARLY as good as Kamara on the Cardinals; that’s something to be thankful for, right?

I’m sure there are tons of other ways the Seahawks could fuck things up, but I just can’t see it happening. Not against Arizona.

If I’m concerned about anything, it’s our running game. Really, it’s our offensive line, who while technically “healthy” in that they’re all playing, I have to believe are all banged up because why else would they be this ineffective? Teams ALWAYS play us to try to slow down the run, so loading the box isn’t anything new. If we can’t convert a 3rd & 1 or 4th & 1 when the other team knows we want to run the ball, then we have a fundamental problem that WILL torpedo this season.

I’d say my next biggest concern would be our depth at receiver. Wilson has been feeding Tyler Lockett a steady stream of targets, as well he should; and Lockett – to his credit – has stepped up in a big way. There are tons of #2 receivers out there who look like absolute dogshit when elevated to the team’s #1, either via injury or personnel changes, but Lockett is raising his game to another level, and that’s very encouraging.

Beyond Lockett, though, D.K. Metcalf is a promising outside receiver and deep threat, but he was largely held to a quiet game last week against the Saints (2 catches for 67 yards, but one of them was as harmless a 54-yard bomb at the end of the first half as you can get). The Saints appeared to drape their best cornerback on him all day, but we’ve still gotta find a way to get him the ball more than that. David Moore was on his first game back after his injury, so that’s always going to be a tough one, but Malik Turner appears to have seen an increase in his playing time on offense, and I just don’t think he’s got what it takes. He was the target on that critical deep overthrow on 4th & 1 that Russell checked into after the Saints loaded the box, which was a smart move, particularly with the way we’d failed time and time again in those situations that day. But, they clearly weren’t on the same page, as Turner was … turned all the way around in trying to make a play on the ball. If he were more experienced with Wilson, or just a more competent receiver, maybe that would’ve been a conversion. But, I’m hard pressed to place the bulk of the blame on that play on Wilson, knowing what a good deep ball thrower he is.

Finally, how can you not be concerned about the way our front seven played against the pass last week? We’re almost as healthy as we’re going to be – three more Jarran Reed-free games to go before he completes the set – and they just did NOTHING against the Saints. Of course, what can you do when they’re getting rid of the ball so quickly? And, similarly, this was Ansah’s first game back after his injury, and the team was taking no chances with him, keeping him in there for around 19 or so plays. I’ve said it all along and I’ll say no different now: as this season progresses, this team should get better each and every week. Part of that is reincorporating injured players into the system, while new players (like Clowney) continue to acclimate to the new scheme. I really expected the Seahawks to harass Bridgewater a ton last week, but that was coming from the notion that he’d hold onto the ball like he usually does.

So, will Kyler Murray be the same way? Obviously, with his scrambling ability, it’ll be a tall order to get him on his back. But, that offense is designed for the quick pass, so once again we might be in store for a long, sackless day. Nevertheless, their O-Line is horrible, so there better be enough breakdowns to at least make his job difficult.

I’ve got it as a 33-16 Seahawks victory. Let’s get back on the winning trail!

I’ll tell you this much: if we DO somehow find a way to lose, then fuck this season. I will be beyond pissed. If we’re 2-2 heading into a Thursday Night game against the Rams, then we might as well all get ready for another fucking useless Wild Card season, with a very real chance that this team is no better than 8-8 and on the outside looking in. There are no Must Win games in September, but there are certainly Better Fucking Win games. And, the Seahawks Better Fucking Win this week against Arizona, or there’s gonna be hell to pay.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2019: Trade Hijinks

The question on my mind this week: should spouses be allowed to trade with one another?

This is a story about a different league I’m involved with – one that I’m the commissioner of – so don’t get this confused with what I’ll talk about later. I’ll take you back to last Thursday. My team was playing someone who has Drew Brees. It’s also a 2-QB league, and her third QB (the only other healthy one she had on her roster) was Marcus Mariota, who was going up against Jacksonville on Thursday Night Football. She hadn’t updated her lineup all week – so Brees was still in the starting lineup; Mariota was on her bench – as kickoff came and went. I wasn’t about to say anything, because she was my opponent! If you don’t look at your roster by Thursday night, that’s on you! I figured she’d make a free agent claim over the weekend and we’d all have a good laugh.

Instead, on Saturday, I got a text asking me to push a trade through so she could set her lineup.

There aren’t any rules about trades in my league. Not really. I’ve never vetoed a trade in my life and I wasn’t about to start now. I legitimately don’t believe in it. Part of it has to do with trusting people to do the right thing. Part of it is you never know how these things are going to shake out in the long run; you can easily overreact in the moment (if you think one person is fleecing another), but then it turns out to be more even than you expected as the weeks go on. Part of it also has to do with the fact that pretty much EVERYONE has very intense reactions about pretty much every trade that’s ever happened, and by and large they’re largely just that: overreactions because they’re just bitter they didn’t have a chance to make a better offer.

I like trades. I like wheeling and dealing with other people. I like trying to come up with terms that someone else will accept (while at the same time secretly getting something over on someone else with my “brilliant fantasy football intellect”). I like shaking my team up and getting new guys to play around with. And, I generally find the reactions of others pretty amusing when I’m involved in a trade that’s perceived to be one-sided. The funniest parts of the TV show The League are when cries of “COLLUSION” are bandied about, because it’s so true to real life.

That having been said, this trade – on paper – looks pretty bad. It’s not the worst fantasy trade I’ve ever seen (that would still be when I got Shaq in his prime for Erick Dampier one year – which may or may not have been legitimate collusion, I can’t remember – but pretty much destroyed the entire league as a result), but it’s far from equal right now, and I think it’ll look a lot worse over time:

  • “Team Fleeced” Got: Mason Rudolph (QB) and Cleveland’s Defense
  • “Team Fleeced” Gave Up: Damien Williams (RB) and Chicago’s Defense

Now, if the defenses were reversed, and it was Rudolph and Chicago going one way, with Williams and Cleveland going the other, it might be more reasonable. But, just going by draft projections, we’re talking about Chicago (generally the number one defense selected, alongside maybe Baltimore) and a running back that was considered to be in the top 10 of fantasy backs, if not in the top 10 of all players (in standard leagues); whereas we’re talking about an okay defense in Cleveland, and Big Ben’s backup making his first career start. It’s a bad look. To her credit, she already had Minnesota’s defense on her roster, and Cleveland’s defense has a lot of talent, so the Cleveland/Chicago comparisons should probably line up pretty close by season’s end. But, if you polled fantasy football players, I feel like well over 90% of unbiased voters would choose the Bears over the Browns for their own teams, if given the opportunity.

As for Rudolph vs. Williams, it’s no contest. Rudolph looked awful against the 49ers; Williams is the starter on an offense that scores the most in football. He’ll be out for one week, maybe two? Then, he’s dialed in as your starting RB for the rest of the season as long as he remains healthy.

I said up top, we won’t know how this looks until season’s end, but I have a pretty good feeling there will be a clear winner, and with it potential changes to the league’s rules heading into next year.

I don’t want to pick on spouses, because I don’t believe for one minute that this was done with the intent to collude to win a league championship. I’ve known these people for years, so believe me when I say that I trust their intentions. But, I mean, you’ve got two people living in the same house, who’ve got nothing but time to discuss their rosters (I assume that’s what married people do? Talk about their fantasy football teams all day every day?). Why reach out to the rest of the league when it’s so much easier to trade with someone right in front of you? Also, time was of the essence; she had one day to roster a second QB, and Rudolph probably seems like a better option than whoever’s left as a free agent; so there’s not a lot of time to put feelers out to the league on a Saturday when people have lives and things going on.

But, we’re talking about a guy who has been playing fantasy football for over two decades and who’s been watching football his entire life, against a gal who is on her third season in the game (all in this particular league) and is just a casual football observer. In that case, regardless of whether he intended to or not, it’s one person taking advantage of another’s inexperience.

This isn’t the first time a questionable trade between spouses has happened in this particular league. Two years ago, a husband – again, in need of a quarterback – gave up Todd Gurley & C.J. Beathard for Blake Bortles & Kelvin Benjamin. That was arguably Bortles’ best season of his career, but I mean come on. Gurley was the best offensive player of 2017. His wife, who already had a good, playoff-bound team, went on to win the league’s championship, largely on the back of Gurley crushing opponents.

Again, I’m not against trading, but there has to be an argument that both people are getting something at least CLOSE to equal. But, in each of these deals, we’re talking about one person taking advantage of another’s desperation. Being desperate is no excuse for flipping the whole league into one person’s advantage.

So, I dunno. I might have to make a change for next year. I don’t want to outlaw trades entirely, and I don’t want to be the sole arbiter. So, maybe it has to fall to a league vote on every trade. That runs the risk of – again – people being bitter and voting against every trade because of their own biases, but we’ve got people of varying skill levels in this league, and something has to be done to level the playing field.

I really hate my gut reaction to this, because as I said before, most of the time these things are overblown. But, as commissioner, I’m torn. I take that role seriously, maybe definitely too much so. I take things to heart in a situation that’s totally ridiculous and doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. Football itself doesn’t matter when compared to real life events and whatnot; fantasy football, by its own definition, doesn’t matter to the Nth degree. I don’t like calling people out, because I’m not really interested in shaming people for something that doesn’t matter. But, I also have a responsibility to the league as a whole, and a need to ensure things are above board. Trades are a slippery slope; they breed resentment. Retaliations generally come in the form of even MORE lopsided trades, this time with actual collusion in intent. Then, the league blows up and you’re left with nothing but hurt feelings and randos as your opponents.

***

My worst-case-scenario came to fruition last week, as my Space Pirates! lost to Space Forcin’ by a score of 222.46-198.95. His score was the highest that anyone has posted all season long. My score was the second-highest that anyone has posted all season long. Of course this happens to me. I can’t be allowed to have nice things! Perish the thought!

It’s pretty rare that both teams in a weekly matchup can get A+ grades, but this is what happens. Cooper Kupp went off for over 30 points. Four other guys got over 20 points, and Buffalo’s defense wasn’t far behind with 19. Everyone on my team except for Justin Tucker scored in double-digits. But, I mean, it just wasn’t even a contest! Mahomes, Kamara, and Lockett each scored over 30 for his team; two others scored almost 30. Only if I had the option of going back and replacing guys in my lineup with higher-scoring bench guys (Danny Dimes had 41, for instance), I still only would’ve BARELY beaten him by less than 1 point (and, seriously, who in their right mind would play someone like Chris Thompson over Le’Veon Bell?). It was the perfect storm, and one that I could see from about 5,000 miles away.

As a result, my team falls to 1-2 on the season, in fifth place in the league. Much like my unlucky streak from a year ago, I find myself with the fourth-highest point total, and the first-highest points-against total. Can’t catch a break. Just gotta find a way to stay in the playoff hunt (top 6 advance, with top 2 getting a first round BYE).

***

I made a waiver claim for Wayne Gallman in every league I’m in, and I got him in every league except this one. Ehh, it happens. I didn’t totally need another running back just yet anyway, and in the long run I still have Chris Thompson on my bench, who is a pretty solid plug n’ play guy if you’re desperate (PPR leagues only).

Some interesting news, as I woke up this morning to check all my waiver claims (much like a survivalist goes around the camp checking all his traps for stray rabbits and rodents and whatnot), someone proposed a trade! To me! This so rarely happens, I feel like the prettiest girl at the ball. I’m almost always the one throwing things out there to mix it up.

This one, I’ll admit, is pretty interesting to me. Beasts is asking me to give him Danny Dimes, and in return he’s willing to give me Matthew Stafford and Chris Godwin.

I’m just running it all through my head right now. Dimes is a rookie quarterback who has made all of one start in his young career. Of course, in that start – by our league’s scoring – he got over 41 points, which is pretty remarkable. Nevertheless, it was his only start, and there’s still so much we don’t know about him. What we do know is that Tampa’s defense is pretty mediocre. We know his offensive line is pretty shaky, and he doesn’t have a ton of weapons (reduced all the more impactfully by the injury to Saquon Barkley). His value might literally never be higher than it is right now; he could be the next Christian Ponder or Jake Locker or take your pick (name any terrible first round bust). In return, I’d be getting a legitimate veteran starting QB and a #2 receiver in an offense that has to throw it a billion times a game.

But, I’m obviously torn. For starters, I don’t love Stafford. I don’t love how that offense is being neutered into a more balanced attack. He’s only had one good week and that was against Arizona, who might have the worst defense in all of football. Now, Beasts picked the right week to offer him up, because he’s facing Kansas City, and you would expect the Lions will need to throw the ball a ton. But, with that comes the obvious risk of him throwing interceptions. Stafford isn’t reliable to me. As for Godwin, you just never know. He can blow up in some weeks, but he can also disappear. That offense has a ton of different people to throw to, with Mike Evans being the clear #1 focus. Plus, I feel like my team is full of Chris Godwin types. Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, Scary Terry, T.Y. Hilton, these are all boom or bust types, albeit ones with higher floors than people you’d see on waivers.

In looking at Beasts’ team, it’s an interesting move. He’s already got Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson as his starting quarterbacks, but I have a hard time figuring he’s doing this to shore up his bench. I’m wondering if he’s maybe starting to sour a little bit on Ryan?

On the flipside, in looking at my team, I’m reluctant to do any 2-for-1 deals when I’ve still got Tyreek Hill on the bench and A.J. Green on IR; I’m not letting those guys walk. And, honestly, I think I like the rest of my depth guys more than I’d want Godwin on my roster. I mean, I literally just blew my #1 waiver priority on Scary Terry, so if I don’t keep him around, I’m a huge fucking idiot.

My biggest concern, though, quite frankly, is the chance that Dimes might turn out to be one of the best five fantasy quarterbacks in the entire league. He has that stink of someone who was drafted WAY too high, and that’s still in the backs of everyone’s minds. Let’s see how he does against Washington, then Minnesota, then the Patriots. Later on he plays Chicago and Green Bay to boot. He could come crashing down to Earth so hard it’ll make all our heads spin, and all the doubters will be out in force with their I Told You So’s.

But, I mean, who scores 41 fantasy points in their first-ever start? This isn’t just a controversial rookie tearing up the pre-season. This isn’t just comparing him to the corpse of Eli Manning. This is a regular season game, on the road, playing for the country’s #1 market for that market’s #1 football team. The closest comp for those kinds of fantasy numbers would be Mahomes’ first start in 2018, when he threw for 256 yards and 4 touchdowns (but even he had a mediocre & meaningless start in the final week of 2017 after the Chiefs had clinched).

I mean, if I trade Dimes for Stafford and Godwin, I could be the guy who traded Manhattan for $24! This is a decision that could affect the fantasy league for the next decade!

Part of me wants to counter his offer with a request for his best player, Christian McCaffrey. I don’t think he’d accept that offer, but what if he did? What if he’s so sure about Dimes being the next Mahomes that he accepted it in a heartbeat? I think I’d be terrified to even throw that out there!

When you’re in a league with 4 keepers, as I’ve said before, you’ve always gotta have at least 1 eye toward the future. The way my team’s set up right now, I’ve given myself a lot of options: Wentz, Dimes, Zeke, Bell, Hill, Jacobs, and maybe even Kupp or Scary Terry if they continue to really kill it. The funny thing is Dimes might end up being the best of that bunch, and the guy I decide to keep around for his entire career. I got in on the ground floor of something potentially special. The last time I made this kind of move, it was Wentz in his rookie year, and so far you’d be hard-pressed to say it’s paid off for me. He’s been injured a lot, and he really doesn’t have a lot of those supernova blowup games where he goes off for 40+ points. You need those in our league, especially when you’re playing against a top team like Space Forcin’.

So, I’ll give it some thought. I’ll let it sit out there and think about it a bit. As soon as Dimes goes down with a season-ending injury this week, I’m sure I’ll want to crawl into a hole and die. We’ll see how it goes.

***

This week, I go up against The Lance Petemans, who are currently 0-3 and in last place. He’s had a rough go the last season and a half, but he’s also got his name on our Championship Trophy more times than anyone else in the league, so no one is feeling sorry for him.

I’ve obviously got Dimes in my lineup with Wentz; my receivers are Kupp, Scary Terry, and we’ll see (T.Y. Hilton if he’s playing, probably Christian Kirk if he’s not); Bell is on BYE, so I’ve got Zeke and Jacobs (hoping for a bounce-back week for the rookie, now that he’s over his illness); Waller is a locked-in Top 10 TE in football, which is a fun thing to have grabbed off the free agent pile a few weeks back; I’m hoping Tucker has a better game against the Browns this week; and with my bench being so stacked, I’m forced to roll with the Bills’ Defense at home against New England. I’m just hoping for maybe a few sacks or something, I dunno.

The Petemans are down a Jimmy G, so they’re rolling with Andy Dalton in primetime. He’s still got Tom Brady, who’s still pumping out the points in the early part of the season, so that could do a ton of damage to my defense. His skill guys include all of the Rams that I don’t have (Gurley, Cooks, and Woods), but I don’t know if he’s playing all three of them or not (he currently has Woods on his bench). The rest of his guys are … far from ideal. He’s got Houston’s Defense going up against Carolina, so that’s a real wild card with the Panthers going with a young QB.

At the moment, Yahoo has me as a slight favorite, but their projections are usually bad. They’re shorting Dimes about 20 points, for instance …

Seahawks Follow The Same Script As Every Other Dumb, Frustrating Seahawks Loss, This Time To The Saints

Early mistakes, huge deficit through three quarters, followed by furious comeback to make the final score respectable. As I was sitting there watching it, I kept wanting to leave, to go watch literally anything else. But, I knew the switch would flip at some point. Whenever these games come around, I’m usually off watching something else in another room, only hearing about (or reading about on Twitter) what amazing things are happening in my absence. This time, I thought I’d stick around to see the “magic”, but it took longer in arriving than I hoped.

So much of my Friday preview came to fruition, just not exactly the way I’d anticipated. I said Teddy Bridgewater is fucking mediocre, and lo and behold, 177 yards on 19/27 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs, for a 6.6 average. He was never going to botch this game for his team, and they were smart to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. Much more quickly than I ever could’ve expected, as the Seahawks’ pass rush – complete with the return of Ziggy Ansah – couldn’t do a damn thing.

Also, both teams were shaky on third downs (NO – 3/11; SEA – 5/14), but critically the Saints were 1/1 on fourth down (for a TD) while the Seahawks were 1/4, a huge reason why we lost this one.

Ironically, while the game did largely hinge on turnovers, they were technically even, and the team that had the ball last did NOT win. So, chew on that one if you dare!

My biggest gaffe in the whole Friday preview was stating the following:

I don’t expect Chris Carson to fumble, in case you were wondering. I think he’ll actually come out with a pretty monster game this week to silence all the critics of his first couple games

– Some idiot

I mean, I couldn’t be more wrong if I tried. 53 yards on 15 carries, with countless slips and falls thanks to not being able to run on wet fake grass. I would argue his fumble was costlier than the Saints’ (and not just because they ran it back for a touchdown), as he immediately started to lose snaps as both the team lost confidence in him and he probably lost confidence in himself. I don’t know how you don’t bench him immediately and send a message through loss of playing time, but he’ll certainly be the guy getting the first handoff next week.

The general focus of my Friday preview was that the Seahawks are fully capable of blowing a game they should win, and that’s all you really needed to take away from it. Punt return for a touchdown. Fumble return for a touchdown. Sloppy tackling all day long, particularly on Alvin Kamara, who is apparently tougher to wrangle than the Incredible Hulk I guess.

Even though the Seahawks threw for over 400 yards, the Saints did something pretty interesting on defense. Instead of shutting down Lockett – who went off for 154 yards on 11 receptions – they shut down D.K. Metcalf by largely having their best cornerback on him for most of the day. He had only 2 catches for 64 yards, and one of those was a 54-yarder as the clock expired for the first half. It’s not a bad plan, to be honest, as he’s proven in his short career to be a beast with a 50/50 ball in one-on-one coverage. You can let Lockett eat all he wants as long as you don’t let him get past you deep, and that’s pretty much what happened.

The biggest thing the Saints did to thwart the Seahawks was to shut down the running game. Wilson scrambled for 51 yards on 7 carries, but if you’ve watched tape on the Seahawks for the last year and a half, you’d know that’s the exception and not the rule. The actual Seahawks running backs went for 58 yards on 19 carries, for an average of just over 3 yards per carry.

The most brutal thing to watch was actually how ineffective the defense was at stopping Kamara. I guess it’s a good thing we don’t face him every week. I’ve noticed we tend to be weirdly terrible whenever we have to play in the rain, which is absolutely not something you would expect. Someone on the weather service needs to get on it, because I swear the Seahawks always suck in the rain.

This was just disappointing anyway you slice it. I always hate it when my teams lose, but I hate it so much more when they repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot, in a game they’re supposed to win. The funny thing is, if Drew Brees was out there instead, the Saints probably would’ve won by 20 and I’d have a remarkably different tone.

As shitty as it is, we’re still on pace. I said the Seahawks would go 1-1 in the 2-game stretch between the Steelers and Saints; the results I expected just flip-flopped. Fortunately, the Saints are who we thought they were, and the rest of the NFC South is a dumpster fire, so we shouldn’t be competing with them for a wild card spot (if it comes to that). The downside, of course, is that if we’re both divisional winners, this one might bite us in the ass, but that’s certainly a better problem to have, and a much more luxurious bridge to have to cross.

This Is Exactly The Kind Of Game The Seahawks Might Boner

I’m usually a little more doom & gloom than I care to be on these pre-game Seahawks posts, always looking on the dark side, trying to find all the ways we can blow it, and this one is no different. But, let me be clear right from the top: the Seahawks SHOULD beat the Saints this weekend. I’m picking them in my weekly picks, and I fully expect the Seahawks to be 3-0 when we reconvene on Monday to talk about it.

The Seahawks have had a pretty charmed life so far in the 2019 season. That Bengals game easily could’ve gone sideways, when we were all expecting a double-digit victory. Without question, the Seahawks looked better against the Steelers, but you can’t deny we got lucky with that Roethlisberger injury. The way they started to move the ball in the second half, combined with our two lost fumbles, it might’ve looked mighty different in the second half if he was fully healthy and playing the full 60.

Ramp that good fortune up to 12 this week, with the loss of Drew Brees as the Saints come to town, and it’s easy to see why we’re all in agreement one way or another about the Seahawks prevailing. The deck is so STACKED in our favor it’s incredible:

  • No Drew Brees
  • Teddy Bridgewater is (likely) starting
  • The Saints have had to stay on the west coast all week after losing to the Rams last week
  • Teddy Bridgewater is mediocre
  • Ziggy Ansah is (likely) returning from injury
  • Poona Ford is (hopefully) returning from injury
  • Tedric Thompson is not returning from injury
  • Teddy Bridgewater

I mean, let’s just start here: our front seven might be a Jarran Reed away from full strength, at the absolute best possible time. So far, the Seahawks are 2-0 against two AFC teams, which counts not at all to the most important tie-breakers for the Seahawks: divisional record and conference record. The Saints are our first crack at this and they’re ripe for the plucking. They’re also a major competitor to our playoff standing this year; they could very likely be in line for a wild card spot, or if they recover and we somehow get over the hump against the Rams, we could be vying for a possible playoff BYE. Beyond our divisional games, this is one of the most important matchups of the entire season (alongside the Eagles, Vikings, and maybe Falcons) and it could be THE most important.

Must. Win. This. Game.

Now, of course, I have my fun at Bridgewater’s expense, because he is truly mediocre, and probably overpaid. I don’t see a ton of difference between what he can do and what Geno Smith can do; give Geno a top 5 offensive line, a dynamic offensive-minded head coach, and a bunch of weapons around him, and I bet he too can throw for 220 yards and a touchdown every game. The difference is, of course, the cost to sign either player. Bridgewater was (somehow) a Pro Bowler in 2015, when he threw for all of 3,231 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions (with a whopping 192 yards rushing and 3 TDs on the ground); I’m assuming every other quarterback in the NFL died that year? Anyway, he could’ve conceivably competed for a starting job somewhere else, but opted to be an overpaid backup for the Saints, and now here we are. Their head coach is trying to play games about which quarterback will be starting, but Bridgewater has a cap hit over $7 million, so I have to believe he’ll get the lion’s share of the opportunity.

All of that being said, MUCH worse quarterbacks have beaten this Seahawks team, even in Seattle, so we really can’t take this team too lightly. This won’t be a walk-over; it won’t be a rout. They’re still a good football team, of that much there is no doubt. With Thomas and Kamara and a stout defensive line … the Saints are fully equipped to be a land mine!

Sorry, I’ll stop with the poetry.

This is a team a lot like the Colts, who also lost their All Pro passer. There’s still a good team around Bridgewater; the Saints’ foundation is strong. They have one of the best O-Lines in the game, even without Max Unger in the middle. They have one of the two best running backs in the entire league, who can beat you every way imaginable. They have one of the best 5 or 10 wide receivers in the game. They have a top notch cornerback in Marshon Lattimore, who is fully capable of shutting down Tyler Lockett or D.K. Metcalf, depending on where they choose to play him (I’d try to make the rookie beat me if I were them, so I’d expect a quiet day out of Lockett in this one). They may not have a bunch of huge names along the D-Line, but they still get pressure with the best of ’em, and largely without the need to blitz.

This game shouldn’t look too much like the Steelers game. I would expect the Seahawks to continue running the ball well, but I’d also expect Russell Wilson to hold onto the ball more closely to career norms, as opposed to the quick-throws he did against the Steelers.

Really, all the Saints need to do is not turn the ball over, feed Kamara every which way from Tuesday, and they should be in a close one in the fourth quarter. I expect both teams to be pretty shaky on 3rd downs, so honestly I think this one will come down to turnovers; the winner of that will win this game. If both teams are equal, I still see it as a coin flip game, probably coming down to who has the ball last.

I don’t expect Chris Carson to fumble, in case you were wondering. I think he’ll actually come out with a pretty monster game this week to silence all the critics of his first couple games. I wonder, however, if we won’t see some tipped passes or drops from our receivers falling into the opposition’s hands. Coverage should be tight all day, which means Wilson will have to hit throws into some small windows.

I actually have some high hopes about our defensive line finally coming together, though, and I think this group will be the key to everything. Can’t let Kamara blow us up between the tackles; if he’s going to beat us, at least let it be on the outside, in the passing game. Of course, I’m going up against him in fantasy football, so expect 3 TDs and 150 yards from scrimmage. But, if we can somehow bottle him up and force the quarterback to beat us with his arm, I’m fully prepared for a Dink & Dunk explosion. With the way Bridgewater likes to hold onto the ball forever, we should finally run into a game where the Seahawks net 4-6 sacks and generally make his life miserable.

The over/under is 44.5, and I’m taking the under. The line is Seahawks -4 and I’m also taking the under. This feels something like a 16-13 game.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2019: Down Goes Roethlisberger

Read about my season to date HERE.

So, yeah, of course I brought this on myself. It’s a 2-QB league, I only kept one quarterback – Carson Wentz – from last year, and when it came time to make a selection for my other guy, I took the first opportunity I could to draft Ben Roethlisberger. I could’ve had Rivers, I could’ve had Dak, but I figured the Steelers would need to throw the ball a lot and Roethlisberger had the highest upside.

Then, on top of all that (taking a guy who tends to be banged up a lot, if not outright injury prone and old), I didn’t pick up a backup QB until the second-to-last round. Now, as it happens, that guy was Daniel Jones, and as luck would have it, he’s starting in place of Eli Manning this week, but do I really want to play a rookie making his first-ever start? Granted, he’s seen a little bit of relief action this year, but they’re also on the road and going up against a sneaky-good Tampa defense. I think I need to give it some time.

***

Before we get into all of that, a quick recap of last week’s matchup. I got TROUNCED. The combination of Roethlisberger getting less than 4 points, with my opponent – Sloane N Steady – having New England’s defense go off for 57 points, was too much to overcome. Most of the rest of my team played to their expected points (no one really blew up), and some (like Wentz) really shit the bed for me. 190.90-142.60.

***

Let’s talk about my moves this week. I talked about this on Twitter the other day, but it bears repeating: I hate having the #1 waiver priority. I always hold onto it waaaaaaay too long – letting countless guys fall to other teams – hoping for the perfect superstar to pick up that someone is forced to drop because maybe they’re dealing with BYE weeks or something. Inevitably – because the guys in my league have been at this for a while – no one really good comes along, and as the playoffs approach, I feel obligated to just take the best player available to actually make use of the damn thing, and it’s never someone who helps me win games. It’s just a huge clusterfuck and I’ve had enough!

After Week 2, you should generally have a good idea of who on the waiver wire is worth rostering. A strong Week 1 can be a fluke, but if they put up back-to-back great weeks, and all the analysis is telling you to GET THIS GUY, you have to get the guy.

The best player available after two weeks in my league was Scary Terry McLaurin. He’s a rookie, he appears to be the best receiver on the Redskins right now, and he might be the best overall offensive weapon on the Redskins! Which, I know … they’re the Redskins. But, even crappy teams put up points. Scary Terry got 7 targets in week one, reeling in 5 of them for 125 yards and a TD. He upped his game to 9 targets in week two, reeling in another 5 for 62 and a TD. He’s not just a deep threat either; they’re featuring him all over the field. He’s fast, he’s hungry, and he’s a possible keeper candidate for next year if things go very right. I ended up waiving Roethlisberger because he’s out for the rest of the season, and he’s not someone I would even remotely consider as a keeper.

I put in a second waiver claim – because why the fuck not? – but Mason Rudolph went to another team. I generally have a bad read on the rest of the league when it comes to who I should prioritize in waiver claims; guys I tend to lock into oftentimes go unclaimed entirely! But, I’ll admit, I didn’t expect Sloane N Steady to snipe this one from me – even if he is a die hard Steelers fan – since he has three other QBs on his roster who are pretty solid (depending on your thoughts on Derek Carr as a third). He must know something I don’t – that Rudolph is going to take this job and run with it – which I probably should’ve seen coming. Here’s to Roethlisberger playing for the Bucs next year!

I still wanted to grab another backup QB, because at this point I’m seriously scrambling, so I took Teddy Bridgewater as a free agent. It’s weird that no one put a claim in for him, considering how few eligible quarterbacks are available in our league, but there you have it. I dropped T.J. Hockenson, as I don’t really have a need for a second tight end (particularly one who had a shit game last week after being lights out in week one) right now. I’ll probably try to get him back at some point, if my season continues to fall apart and I just need to play for next year.

It really sucks talking like that after two weeks, but again, I did this to myself.

***

I’ve got a lot of shuffling going on in my lineup, so let’s jump right into it.

For my QB spots, I’ve got Wentz and Gardner Minshew II. As noted above, I need to actually see how Danny Dimes plays before I throw him into my lineup (and even then, I’ll be going game-to-game based on matchups). Part of me really wants to play Bridgewater here, but he’s just SO MEDIOCRE. Now, who knows, maybe they’ll tailor the offense to him and he’ll come into Seattle on Sunday and throw for 300 yards and 3 TDs, but I doubt it. Even if he has all day to throw, it’s going to be some underneath bullshit. Their O-Line is good, so that gives me pause, but the Seahawks should be pretty close to full strength on the D-Line this week with the return of Ansah. Combine that with us being at home, and I’m expecting something in the 200-yard range with maybe a TD. For our league, that’s anywhere from 15-20 points, depending on how many turnovers he has. Not great. I feel like the upside is higher with Minshew at home. Now, I HATE the fact that it’s a Thursday game, and those tend to be super wonky and super one-sided. Feels like a 50/50 proposition though that this one will be one-sided towards Jacksonville. I guess I have to like those odds, considering my opponent this week (more on that later).

For my receivers, I’m Ride Or Die with T.Y. (Hilton) until Tyreek Hill comes back. It’s discouraging that A.J. Green isn’t going to return this month like I’d hoped, but I still feel good rostering him (for now) with the hope that he’ll provide my team a boost in the second half (he is in a contract season, after all). I elevated Christian Kirk into my starting lineup, based on his strong line against the Ravens last week. It looks like the Cardinals’ offense is just getting warmed up, and they’re about to explode with a ton of TDs the rest of the way. I’m keeping my RBs as Elliott and Bell, and my lone tight end is Waller (who might figure to get even more targets this week, depending on how well Tyrell Williams is feeling). But, I’m benching Josh Jacobs in lieu of Cooper Kupp (who continues to get ranked crazy-high by the ESPN experts). I don’t love how much the Rams spread the ball around, as it feels like Kupp oftentimes gets relegated to the sloppy seconds (or thirds, as it were) of Woods and Cooks; but I could see them needing to put up a lot of points and throw a lot against the Browns. It feels like the much smarter play over Jacobs, who isn’t a factor in the passing game, which means if they’re losing on the road against the Vikings (as is my expectation), he just won’t see the ball all that much.

Scary Terry was certainly a thought – I did blow a #1 waiver priority on him – but they’re playing the Bears on Monday Night, and I just don’t think the Redskins are going to score all that much. And, let’s be real here, I’m going to need A LOT of points, so going with high-variance guys is the way to play.

***

Space Forcin’ is my opponent, the arch nemesis of Space Pirates! We’re at it again. He of the A+ draft grade. He of the best keepers in the league – Mahomes, JuJu, Kamara, and Davante Adams. On top of those guys, he’s got Ertz, Phillip Lindsay, Lockett as his flex, Philly’s kicker, and San Fran’s defense (hosting Pittsburgh). His only real weak spot is Jacoby Brissett, who also just so happens to be throwing balls to my #1 wide receiver this week. It’s a mess!

What I’m banking on is Baltimore’s defense holding Kansas City’s passing attack in check. I’m not asking for the keys to Fort Knox here, just keep him under 30 points! I’d love to see Brissett throw a few picks to those ball-hawking Falcons cornerbacks. I’d also love it if the Steelers put up a good fight against the 49ers, yet maybe Richard Sherman still shuts down JuJu? Is that possible? The Seahawks should be pretty formidable against the Saints’ rushing attack, so I’d hope Kamara doesn’t go off like he normally does (ideally, let’s just keep him out of the endzone and see how the rest shakes out). Hopefully New Orleans’ #1 corner locks down Lockett, the Packers’ defense completely shuts down Denver’s running game, and Denver’s secondary finds a way to force anyone but Adams to beat them.

As for my team, Wentz should have a bounce-back game against the Lions. How do you not love Elliott at home against the Dolphins? If that isn’t a 30-point game, something’s seriously wrong. Bell should continue to be featured heavily on the road against the Pats. I have to believe Waller is due for the endzone a couple times. I love Baltimore’s kicker against KC’s defense. And, I love Buffalo’s defense against whatever the hell Cincinnati is trying to do on offense.

Look, if I’m being honest, I have no shot to win this week. Yahoo has me as a 13-point underdog, but if I don’t lose by 40 it’ll be a miracle. My only real hope is for his guys to have uncharacteristically bad games. I mean, like, I deserve some good luck! I scored 142 points last week, which is well below par for our league, and there were still FIVE teams who did worse (including someone who went on to win their matchup)! Why can’t I ever be playing some shit team when I’m having a similarly shit week? I swear to Christ, the schedule is my biggest obstacle every fucking year; when is it my turn to get some good fortune in this part of the game? I lose one of my keepers (Hill) in the middle of week one, then the injury bug swings back around to take my top draft pick in the middle of week two. I’m not even getting FULL GAMES out of these injured guys! How I managed to get to .500 after two games is a total mindfuck.

If I’m also being honest, it doesn’t even matter if I win this week or not. What’s more important is having one of these young QBs (ideally someone like Daniel Jones) really shine this week, affording me the confidence to play them the rest of the way. What’s more important is someone like Scary Terry doing it against a top shelf defense like the Bears, so I can pencil him into my lineup every week from here on out. What’s more important is for Josh Jacobs to come back with a vengeance so I feel like a fool for benching him.

What’s even MORE important than all of that is none of my other superstars getting fucking injured anymore!

If I wake up on Tuesday morning and find my bench outscored my starters, I’ll be fine with it. There are still lots of weeks left this season; I just need to tread water – and find a viable second quarterback – until some of my injured guys come back and I can kick ass again when it counts: the playoffs. As long as I can sneak into a 5th or 6th seed, that’s all that matters.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Playoffs Round 2

Well, it looked dicey there for a while on Sunday – as both King Flippy Nips and Crazy N8’s Prostates struggled to do much of anything – but as the day wore on, my guys had just enough in the tank to prevail, 164.77 to 124.10.

Predictably, I made a bunch of pre-game panic moves that either had no bearing on the outcome, or totally cost me points because I’m an idiot.  For starters, I put Wentz back in my lineup over Carr.  It was the right call – as my fantasy confidant and sherpa guide told me, “… this time of year I generally say play your best players,” – and in the end I got an extra point out of the deal.  Turns out Carr against the Steelers was also a good call, as I figured.  But, the risk of Carr totally melting down was too much for me, so I went with my keeper.

I also ditched the Giants defense, going with Detroit’s.  That ended up costing me 4 points, which was no big thing (thankfully).  But, I could’ve just stuck with Chicago’s defense (who DOMINATED the Rams, to my surprise) and had 10 more points!  IDIOT!

Finally, I put Adrian Peterson in there, thinking that the Redskins would hang around and try to run the ball a ton.  He got me less than 3 points in a week where Carson would’ve gotten me 15.  Woof.

Luckily, Zeke came to play (31.20), both my QB’s showed up, and Tyreek Hill shook off an early injury to get me over 20 points.  More importantly, Crazy N8’s Prostates had to replace ODB at the last minute (Chris Godwin, who got less than 3 points), and had mediocre games up and down his lineup.

So, I advance to the next round.  As a 6-seed, my reward is to play the 1-seed, Space Forcin’.  You know, the guy who managed to keep Mahomes, Kamara, and Rivers (QB1, RB5, and QB6).  The guy who – on his BYE week last week – still managed to lead the league in scoring with over 200 points.  This dude is a juggernaut.  I’m so fucked it’s not even funny.

Barring a miracle, I’m pretty much where I deserve to be:  in the final four.  I will say this, though:  for a team as good as mine, it’s weird that I’ve yet to surpass 200 points in any given week.  Most all of the other good teams in our league has had at least one 200-point week this year.  Just sayin’.

Anyway, here are my guys:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz or Nick Foles @ LAR
  • QB2 – Derek Carr @ CIN
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill vs. LAC
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen vs. MIA
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott @ IND
  • RB2 – Chris Carson @ SF
  • TE – Vance McDonald vs. NE
  • FLEX – Robert Woods vs. PHI
  • K – Ryan Succop @ NYG
  • DEF – Chicago vs. GB

My bench is:  Winston, Peterson, Boyd, Adams, Detroit, Bell (IR).

Come Wednesday morning, I made a flurry of moves.  Gone:  Jimmy Graham.  Fuck that guy, I fucking hate him anyway.  Plus, with the Packers going up against my defense, it’s not like I want him to do well anyway.  So, watch him have a monster game with multiple touchdowns.  In his place, I grabbed Vance McDonald.  There aren’t a lot of great tight ends out on waivers this time of year, and the ones I like are in tough matchups.  With McDonald, I just want to get SOME points, and I feel like he’s got the safest floor.

Also gone:  Matt Bryant.  The dude is old, their offense has sucked lately, and again I just want POINTS.  Per Yahoo, the Giants give up the most points to kickers in the league, so in comes Succop.  I don’t love Tennessee’s offense, but hopefully he’ll get me a 50-yarder or two.

Finally, I didn’t need two defenses, as I’m FOR REAL THIS TIME sticking with Chicago the rest of the way.  With word coming down on Wednesday that Carson Wentz is unlikely to play this week, I picked up Nick Foles.  I still like him more than Jameis Winston against that Baltimore defense.

My guys are okay, my matchups are okay, but Space Forcin’ is just STACKED.  The aforementioned Mahomes & Rivers (in a matchup against one another on Thursday night that’s destined to be a shootout to end all shootouts), Adams and Smith-Schuster as his starting wideouts, Kamara and Aaron Jones as his starting RBs, the immortal Kittle as his TE, Jacksonville’s defense going up against the pathetic Redskins.  I mean, how do you compete with these guys?

I’m gonna need my first 200-point week, and even then, will it be enough?  Yahoo has me losing by over 20 points already, before anyone has played a game.  It’s gonna be ugly.