Can The Seahawks Maintain Their Hot Start?

This Seahawks team sure looks more special than I expected. I feel like we’re one more win away from a guaranteed 5-0 start; we just have to get over this Dallas Cowboys hurdle.

While the Seahawks appear special, that’s not the same thing as them being dominant. The defense is still just as much of a liability as it’s been the last couple seasons, worsened by the season-ending injuries to Marquise Blair and Bruce Irvin. The Irvin injury feels like a real crusher. He obviously hasn’t had a ton of sacks or anything through the first two games, but he provided plenty of value along that defensive line in many ways, from run stuffing, to at least getting pressure on the quarterback from time to time. You just knew he was going to have some real blow-up games at some point, coming up big in key moments, so it’s almost a tragedy to see him go.

By comparison, the Blair injury doesn’t seem as bad because we have lots of guys behind him who are able to step up. But, we’ll never know! How could we? Maybe Blair has All Pro-level talent, and that’s been taken from us. The Alternate Universe Seahawks are probably enjoying all that he has to offer, but I don’t live in that universe, so nuts to that!

I just don’t see a lot of great options – either on this team, or in the free agent market – to replace someone like Irvin. It’s going to be a severe downgrade any way you slice it. Maybe one of the young linebackers currently on the team can provide better speed at that SAM spot, but you probably lose some of the power and definitely lose the pass rushing ability (on a team that, obviously, struggles at that aspect as it is).

On the plus side, maybe this is an opportunity for Shaquem Griffin to make an impact! I hope so; I think he has just what this team needs.

Anyway, getting back, yeah, this defense IS a liability. But, we’ve seen shaky defenses propped up by elite offenses before, and this offense is 100% elite right now! It’s right up there with Kansas City and Baltimore (though, obviously they have an edge with superior defenses). We’ve also seen shaky defenses get better as seasons progress. As the weather cools and passing games cool right along with it, it becomes more important to stop the run as we get into December and January, which is when this team could really come together.

The Seahawks have also been challenged by some pretty strong offenses through two weeks; Atlanta’s passing game looks as good as anyone’s, and New England will continue to play well as long as Cam is healthy and Belichick is breathing. Dallas, this week, is a continuation of that: Top 5 passer, lots of weapons to throw to, and probably the best running back still healthy at the moment. As far as our non-divisional schedule is concerned, this is our most difficult remaining game outside of the Buffalo contest in early November. So, when I say if we can get through this one with a W, 5-0 is VERY much on the table, as we go to Miami the following week, before hosting the hapless Vikings after that (in primetime, no less).

It’s hard to figure out where the Cowboys are as a team. I think it’s pretty clear they’re the best team in the NFC East right now, but is that saying much? All the other teams in that division are bumbling along pretty pitifully. Is this a situation where Dallas might win a playoff spot with an 8-8 record? I feel like they’re a play here or a play there from either being 0-2 or 2-0. They almost came back to beat the Rams in Week 1 (a bogus OPI penalty on Michael Gallup was particularly galling). But, at the same time, they really SHOULD have lost to the Falcons last week (if anyone on Atlanta’s Special Teams was smart enough to fall on a spinning football during an onside kick before it went the necessary 10 yards for the kicking team to recover), so it’s tough to say how good or bad Dallas is. I believe the Rams are a top tier football team, and while Atlanta probably isn’t so great, their offense is explosive enough to give any defense fits.

Based on what I’ve seen, I know enough to be wary of these Cowboys. Given how balanced and talented they are on offense, they should have no trouble moving the football (made even easier, obviously, by the lack of fans in the stands) against our nothing defense. At the same time, nothing about Dallas’ defense scares me if I’m the Seahawks offense. I think this one is destined to be another high-scoring shootout.

The same keys find their way into any pre-game analysis when you’re talking about the difference between winning and losing. 3rd/4th down conversions, TD/FG percentage, penalties, run/pass ratio & efficiency. But, I think this is going to boil down to turnovers. It seems like these two offenses are so similar, that they should be able to move the ball at will and do whatever they want. Therefore, critical turnovers could play a huge part in determining the outcome of this game.

You could see that in the Pats game as well. It shouldn’t have been as close as it was, but the Patriots converted a Pick-Six, while the Seahawks dropped a chance at returning the favor. Had the Seahawks played a clean game from a turnover perspective, we would’ve witnessed another double-digit victory. I think there’s a CHANCE for that to happen here, but it’s going to require the Seahawks not shooting themselves in the foot.

With the way our offense is rolling, the only team that can beat the Seahawks IS the Seahawks.

Right now, all the MVP hype in the world is on Russell Wilson’s jock, and for good reason. He’s been nearly-flawless. Of course, the MVP through two weeks has rarely been the MVP at the end of the season. For the Seahawks to continue to be special, they’re going to need him to keep this up, especially against the very best teams on our schedule (like Dallas). There will be opportunities for the Seahawks defense to shine; bad teams are coming! But, I don’t believe Dallas is among them, and it’s going to take everything we’ve got to keep the good times going.

Ezekiel Elliott has always destroyed us, even when our defenses were great. While this is good for my fantasy team, it’s bad for the Seahawks. But, in spite of that, I think I’m more afraid of Dak Prescott and this passing game. Imagine how tough New England was, only if they had more than one good receiver. Dallas is rolling three deep! They’re fast, they’re big, and they can make plays anywhere on the field. Amari Cooper is always a tough matchup for us, but I’m watching out for CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. With the way our secondary has given up big plays down field through two games (likely having a lot to do with our complete and utter lack of a pass rush), I see no reason for that not to continue. We’re still working in new guys (Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar, most notably), and now we’re getting over the loss of Marquise Blair (who factored heavily in our defensive scheme this season); this is not the best time to try to take on this Dallas passing attack.

The ace up our sleeve in this one might be the Cowboys’ head coach, Mike McCarthy. His teams tend to make some baffling decisions on offense, which could conceivably work in our favor. Then again, his Green Bay Packers teams in recent years have had their way with us, and those teams weren’t nearly as stacked as these Cowboys are.

I nevertheless expect a narrow Seahawks victory in this one. I won’t rule out a blowout one way or the other, though, because while I do believe the Seahawks are the superior team, we’re a mediocre Russell Wilson performance away from losing by double digits (or being so far out of it that a garbage-time score still leaves us woefully behind with no time left in the game). I won’t go so far as to say I know this offense has a few duds in it, but I will say I haven’t TOTALLY bought into the sea change we’ve seen through two weeks. I keep expecting the other shoe to drop. I hope I’m wrong!

It would be nice to see a shocking level of competence out of this defense, though. Two weeks should be enough time for this staff to coach up some guys and figure out what tweaks they need to make. We were close to getting – on a number of occasions – Cam Newton on his ass last week, and he just barely weaseled his way out of trouble. Dak is sort of a younger version of that, but I would argue he’s easier to get down as he isn’t quite as big and strong. I hope we’re able to learn from those missed sacks and do a better job of wrapping up; at the very least, force the quarterback to throw it away rather than escape for a huge gain.

5-0 is within range. I can taste it! We’re going to need it too, because the rest of the NFC West (sans San Francisco) looks pretty fucking great. Arizona looks a lot better than I expected, and I already expected them to give us fits whenever we match up against them. The Rams, I think, are still the team to beat. But, I bet their fans are saying the same thing about the Seahawks right now.

In the end, it’s going to come down to conference record (and record against common opponents), so this Dallas game is HUGE! It’s the first game that meets both of those criteria; I would love nothing more than to get this leg-up (or, at the very least, keep up with the Rams’ leg, since they already beat the Cowboys in Week 1).

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Corona-Draft Prep

  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE

Well, the keepers are set in place, and now I get to look forward to our draft this Friday. There were some minor surprises – and a couple big ones – so without further ado, let’s take a quick glance at how wrong I was about my projected keepers for the rest of the league:

  1. Russell Wilson, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Godwin, Matt Ryan (all correct)
  2. Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, James Conner, Travis Kelce (Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Ingram, and Keenan Allen all available to draft)
  3. Deshaun Watson, George Kittle, Derrick Henry, Cam Newton (Aaron Jones)
  4. Jared Goff, Drew Lock, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster (A.J. Brown and Raheem Mostert)
  5. Kyler Murray, Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon (Mike Evans)
  6. Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen (Amari Cooper)
  7. Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett (all correct)
  8. Jimmy Garoppolo, Tyreek Hill, Gardner Minshew, Todd Gurley (Matthew Stafford)
  9. Lamar Jackson, Julio Jones, Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold)

I remember being MUCH more successful in predicting my league’s keepers before last season, so I don’t know what that says about me or the state of the NFL right now, but it makes the upcoming draft more interesting!

Until I saw the actual keepers, I wasn’t too thrilled about my prospects as the guy with the #2 overall draft pick. It just seemed like there wouldn’t be anyone really dominating for me to select. BUT, I see two guys among the leftovers who are VERY exciting! Not just for 2020, but for many years to come potentially!

Of this group, Mike Evans and Aaron Jones are both VERY enticing to me. Either one of them could fall to me and I’d be ecstatic with whoever I get. I know I bemoaned Tom Brady’s noodle arm last week, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be interested in the weapons he has to throw to. For starters, Brady isn’t totally inept; he hasn’t fallen completely off the cliff just yet. While Mike Evans has been mostly a deep threat thus far in his career, he still has a ton of value as a red zone target, and should thrive with someone like Brady throwing jump balls his way. If, by the grace of all that is holy, both Evans and Jones were to fall to me, I’d have to go with Evans simply because the drop-off at receiver is so steep among him and the rest of the leftovers.

Odell Beckham Jr. is, of course, one of those leftovers. I can’t say that I agree with exposing him to the rest of the league while keeping someone like Josh Allen, but you know, there’s a reason why I haven’t won a league championship in the fantasy trophy era (2010-Present). I think the Cleveland Browns – and by extension, their players – are pretty underrated in 2020, after being so very OVER-rated heading into 2019, so there could be some good value in guys like ODB and Baker Mayfield. If I picked lower in the first round, I’d be over the moon if someone like ODB fell to me; someone is going to get an absolute steal.

Aaron Jones was one of the best running backs in all of football last year, at least from a fantasy perspective. So, it’s shocking to see him available. But, it’s telling that he is, because the owner who exposed him is also a lifelong Packers fan. If HE’S not keeping Aaron Jones, there must be a reason (he’s also the reigning league champion, but that’s in spite of him auto-drafting last year, as well as never checking his e-mail, so we’re all in agreement that this was a fluke, and if his wife weren’t cc’d on all league e-mails, we’d probably never hear from him again). I have to believe Aaron Jones still has a lot of value, though, so if Mike Evans goes to the guy drafting #1 overall, I’m okay with nabbing Jones, even though I’ve already kept two running backs. There’s still the FLEX spot, and there are only so many bona fide, workhorse running backs in the league, so you really can’t have too many.

That would, of course, necessitate my drafting wide receivers in both the second and third rounds (which might see me needing to reach for some lesser players, but that’s the price you pay, I guess).

As I stated before, I still haven’t done a ton of research heading into the draft, as my objective at this point is still to mostly go by what Yahoo tells me. But, to pique my curiosity, I checked the season projections and found some surprising guys among the leftovers.

Miles Sanders, running back for the Eagles, is rated VERY high. Even higher than Aaron Jones! I can’t remember the last time an Eagles running back was worth more than an in-season free agent pickup (probably Shady McCoy), because they so often are in a time-share with multiple backs. But, he’s been definitively named the starter by the head coach, which is saying a lot but also not saying anything at all. Why would the head coach be motivated to give away such news for free to the rest of the league? Also, there’s no saying he has to stick with that, if Sanders under-produces or gets hurt. Sanders was really good towards the end of last year though, so I think that’s where the hope lies.

Not ODB nor Mike Evans is the highest-ranked wide receiver remaining; that falls to Allen Robinson of the Bears. I don’t totally get that, but ESPN also has him ranked pretty high, so I guess I have to believe it. With Chicago’s quarterback situation being what it is, I don’t have ANY faith in any of their players, but if he somehow falls to the second round, I might have to take him anyway.

Kenny Golladay is also rated above ODB and Evans, and he seems like a safer pick. He has elite talent, and Matthew Stafford is healthy again. It’s looking highly likely that MANY wide receivers are going to fly off the board in the first three rounds of our draft, so I’ll be interested to see who I’m able to grab.

Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, and Darren Waller are the three tight ends I’m looking at right now. Andrews is probably the only guy worth reaching for (maybe in the second or third round, if he’s still there), but if the draft doesn’t fall the way I want it to, I have no problem waiting until the end of the draft to pick up a tight end. There will be someone on waivers worth claiming in the first week or two of the regular season.

I need to resist the urge to get a third quarterback too early, but there are LOTS of veteran options out there (who I would anticipate get snapped up before I have a chance), including Drew Brees, Brady, Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, and Tyrod Taylor. There’s also Baker Mayfield, who still has a lot of potential to be great, as well as Darnold and Dwayne Haskins (who stunk last year, but is still young enough to turn it around). And then, of course, there are the rookies. The more I think about it, the less inclined I am to want to reach too early for any of them. I also wonder if Joe Burrow won’t be the first overall player taken in the draft, considering the guy picking there and how badly he’s been looking to shore up his QB spots. Having Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow for the next generation might be too tantalizing to pass up.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Here We Fucking Go Again

If you want to read about my 2019 fantasy football season, click HERE and you can see all the prior links at the top. And, if you want to read about my 2018 season (which has a lot of good info at the beginning about how our league works), click HERE.

Note: please don’t go back and read all of that. There’s a reason why this series is called, “Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team”. You’ve been warned; this isn’t necessarily a generic fantasy football column like you may be used to, this is specifically about MY team, and if the players I write about happen to be relevant to your situation, then all the better, I guess.

Just a quick reminder: this is a 10-team, 2-quarterback PPR league where quarterback points are slightly inflated compared to standard leagues (20 yards per point, 6 points per TD, -4 points per INT). So, you know, it’s pretty important to have a couple quality quarterbacks.

We had our annual fantasy football meeting last week, without much tweaking of the rules. For our purposes, the league season only counts – as it relates to the championship and related prizes therein – if the NFL completes nine regular season weeks. I don’t think that will be much of an issue, but apparently we have to account for these things in these COVID times. We also are allowed one extra IR spot (on top of the IR spot we already get) specifically if someone is diagnosed with COVID and placed on leave accordingly. Seems unlikely that anyone super good will catch it, so I’m not too concerned.

It’s another year with four keepers, so here are mine:

  • Carson Wentz (QB)
  • Daniel Jones (QB)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  • Josh Jacobs (RB)

The only holdovers from my 2018 squad are Wentz and Elliott. I made an ill-advised trade for Tom Brady midway through last year – costing me Tyreek Hill in the process – and for that I have much regret. Nevertheless, Danny Dimes looks like he has true stud potential, and as someone I held onto all year in spite of not playing him very regularly, I’m pretty devoted to seeing how he plays out in his second season in the league. Josh Jacobs, from the moment I drafted him, was someone I eyeballed as a potential keeper for years to come (and someone I see has a HUGE upgrade over LeVeon Bell, who was mired on a terrible Jets team with a God-awful offensive line).

The only other serious contenders as keepers were the aforementioned Tom Brady and Le’Veon Bell. Brady is REALLY intriguing, as we all know he’s now in Tampa, with a ton of weapons, and with an offensive-minded head coach in Bruce Arians. Like many around football, I’m not totally sold on Carson Wentz. The bloom is off the rose with him, even though he played in all 16 games, had a career high in passing yards (4,039) in spite of having no great wide receiver options to throw to, and still had a very commendable 27:7 TD:INT ratio. I don’t know if the weapons situation is all that much improved, but they went after wide receiver HARD in the draft, and hopefully will see some younger guys from prior seasons step up. So, there was a serious look at Brady over Wentz, but in the end Brady is just so old, and that noodle arm looked SO feeble last year. The offense under Arians tends to feature a lot of deep downfield plays in the passing game. I could see Brady starting off the season on fire, but when I would need him the most – in the fantasy playoffs – I just don’t think he’ll have it. Besides that, Wentz is obviously still very young and should still be viable for many more years; Brady is on his very final legs and could be forced into retirement at any time.

As for Bell, I couldn’t tell you what the Jets have done to bolster their O-Line (other than pay a lot of money to George Fant to be their left tackle, a position he’d rarely been asked to play as a member of the Seahawks). I don’t know if I totally buy Bell as still having it. He was a steady fantasy player last year, but he’s getting up there as well, and if that offense continues to struggle, I don’t know if I see him having a lot of TD opportunities. I’m of the opinion that Jacobs will be a superstar, and Elliott already IS a superstar. Kind of a no-brainer there.

In coming in second place in the Consolation Bracket last season, I earned the second overall draft pick in the upcoming draft on Friday, September 4th. This presents me with a unique opportunity. The deadline for everyone to declare their keepers is this Friday, August 28th, so before next week’s column, I should know who’s available to me.

Since there isn’t a ton to write about this early in the pre-season, I’ll try to take a stab at guessing who the keepers will be for the other nine teams (with guys in parentheses being alternate options):

  1. Russell Wilson, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Godwin, Matt Ryan (Tyler Boyd)
  2. Dak Prescott, Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Ingram, Travis Kelce (Keenan Allen)
  3. Deshaun Watson, George Kittle, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones (Cam Newton)
  4. DeAndre Hopkins, Jared Goff, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster (Raheem Mostert)
  5. Kyler Murray, Michael Thomas, Saquon Barkley, Mike Evans (Joe Mixon)
  6. Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Amari Cooper (Adam Thielen)
  7. Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett (Zach Ertz)
  8. Tyreek Hill, Jimmy Garoppolo, Todd Gurley, Matthew Stafford (Gardner Minshew)
  9. Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake, Baker Mayfield, Julio Jones (Austin Ekeler, Sam Darnold)

Honestly, I’m not in love with any of these potential leftovers. I’m tempted to more or less auto-draft. I’m happy with my keepers, but I was REALLY hoping there’d be someone super exciting for me to select with my #2 overall pick. Thankfully, we have a straight draft, so I’m #2 in every round. By auto-drafting, I figure I can’t do much worse than I’ve been doing over these last dozen or so years.

I haven’t done much of any research so far this off-season, and I don’t know what I’ll end up getting to prior to the draft. My hunch is: not much. Again, being prepared hasn’t done a damn thing for me; my name sure as shit isn’t on that league trophy, I’ll tell you that much!

One idea I’ve been mulling over is using my #2 overall pick on one of the incoming rookies. I have three players in mind, two of them being the most prominent rookie quarterbacks: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. Gun to my head: I like Tua more than Burrow. But, he’s projected to start this season as Miami’s backup, and their BYE week isn’t until Week 11. So, either Ryan Fitzpatrick sucks and Tua’s thrown to the wolves prematurely, and without a proper BYE week to prepare, or FitzMagic continues to do his thing and we don’t see Tua until very late in the season. The point being: there’s a great chance Tua doesn’t help me much at all this year, and I’d be throwing away yet another season trying to get my shit together when it comes to the quarterback position (with a very small, but important chance that Tua is the next Mahomes and I’d be missing out on my one and only opportunity at getting in on his ground floor).

It just figures that I have this great draft pick for the first time in YEARS, and there are no real stud running backs that would change the course of my fantasy franchise for years to come. Where’s MY Saquon Barkley?!

We’ll see, though. Once the keepers are locked in place, I’ll hop back into the league site and see who Yahoo thinks I should take. It does seem kind of idiotic to have a third quarterback on my roster before even getting ONE wide receiver. At some point, I need to stop playing for the future and start playing for today.

How many times have I admonished myself the last few years by saying that very same thing?

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2019: Trade Deadline Follies

Make that Space Pirates has underperformed 8 out of 10 weeks!

My team turned out much differently compared to what I wrote about in my Week 10 preview post. Inspiration struck after I hit “Publish”. I’ve had conversations off and on with the last place team in our league, as I have a serious need to improve my quarterback position and he has a serious need to get better keepers. He was rightly reluctant to part with San Francisco’s Jimmy G, so there was nothing doing there. But, his other guy was Tom Brady, who he’s had for years and years, and has won multiple league titles with. In spite of Brady’s disasterous fantasy performances in recent Decembers, I still see him as a step up from Nick Foles, or the inconsistent Danny Dimes (he gets his nickname back after another 40-point fantasy week).

It took me trading Tyreek Hill to get Brady, which in turn forced him to give up Robert Woods (which he was happy to do, as Woods has been pretty mediocre this season after a solid 2018) because I needed to play a second WR this week, which in turn forced me to give up on Nick Foles (which I was happy to do because he’s Nick Foles) because he needed to roster a third quarterback for emergency purposes.

That left my team weaker for Week 10 than it already was, if that’s even possible. But, I THOUGHT I turned my fortunes around for the better by making a last-minute trade on Friday night.

See, the guy who grabbed Brian Hoyer off of waivers last week found out on Friday that Mahomes was a go. That eliminated the need for him to roster Hoyer. He offered him to me in trade – as I was needy for improvement for Week 10, and had complained about my bad fortune to him earlier – and I told him I couldn’t offer much (it is Hoyer after all, and he was to be a one-week rental), but I could send over Ryan Finley as a possible lottery ticket. He accepted, and I had my Hoyer for the week.

Turns out, I would’ve been better off playing Finley. I nearly would’ve been better off playing Taysom Hill, with his 1 catch for 17 yards!

To further complicate matters, I realized that with the move to bring in Brady, and give up on a supreme talent like Hill, I’m in full-blown Win Now Mode. So, why am I hanging onto Gardner Minshew? Particularly when the Jags aren’t close to annointing him as the starter. So, I beefed up my depth by picking Derrius Guice back up, as he’s set to return pretty soon.

This past weekend was the official trade deadline for our league, so that’s it for the excitement. You’ll be happy (or possibly dismayed) to know that I was involved in every single trade in this league, and that there were officially just the two trades for the entire season. Of course, I highly doubt anyone else obsesses over these things like I do, as most everyone else in the universe has more of a life than me.

***

It was a rough Week 10 for Space Pirates. As I noted up top, my team yet-again underperformed expectations. Part of that had to do with my cold feet when it came to Le’Veon Bell. That Adam Thielen fiasco the week prior really got in my head, as I couldn’t stand the thought of me starting someone who might have to come out of his game without getting me anything. So, in his stead I put in Jaylen Samuels who got me a whopping 7 points, nearly 10 points less than Bell who finally found the endzone for my bench.

Cooper Kupp got me 0. The aforementioned Hoyer only got 4.20 (which was FAR from the nice number it appears to be). Justin Tucker was relegated to 7 extra points and 0 field goals. Darren Waller also only had 7 points. Zeke Elliott had 8.30. Danny Dimes was the only guy keeping me afloat – with his 41.40 points – but unfortunately he doesn’t get to face the Jets’ defense every week. I lost 149.35-121.50. When Robert Woods is your third-highest scorer of the week, you know you’re probably in for a bad time.

The loss drops me to 5-5 on the year, stopping my winning streak at three games. There are also just three more games left to go in the regular season. I’ve fallen to 7th place, just outside of the playoffs if the season ended today. I’m down to the 7th most points scored, but still with the second-most points against.

***

I dropped Hoyer on Tuesday to open up a place on my bench, as neither Hilton nor Green are eligible for the IR spot just yet. With those guys injured – and thus only two healthy wide receivers on my roster at the moment (Kupp & Woods of the Rams) – I had to make a move to at least shore up some depth. So, I put in two waiver claims, and got my top priority: Darius Slayton of the New York Giants. He’s a rookie fifth rounder who has come on of late, with 4 touchdowns and over 55 points in the last three weeks. Of course, sandwiched in there was a game where caught 1 ball for 6 yards, but rookies aren’t perfect. I feel like he’ll go where Danny Dimes goes, especially if the other targets in that offense continue to get banged up.

I also put in a request to pick Scary Terry back up, but it wasn’t meant to be as someone else nabbed him. I had to downgrade him by the simple fact that Dwayne Haskins was named the starter for the rest of the season, and he just seems like too much of a bust to depend on. McLaurin will have better days ahead, but he’s going to need a better quarterback throwing to him if he wants to be on my roster.

***

I’m stuck playing Sloane N Steady this week, the first place team in the league. Granted, he’s on a 3-game losing streak, but he’s still a shitload better than me and that losing streak will almost certainly end now. Space Pirates need to bring their A-game, and based on what I’ve seen from my guys, I don’t think they have it in ’em.

He has Aaron Rodgers on BYE, but other than that everyone’s a full go. Plus, he has Philip Rivers as a plug n’ play going up against the Chiefs on Monday Night, so it’s pretty much like he’s at full strength anyway. Derek Carr is his other QB, who has a juicy matchup against the Bengals this week.

Then, he’s got Amari Cooper, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, New England’s defense, and countless other guys who always kick my fucking ass. Assuming I lose this one, next week I have to go up against last year’s league champion, before finally facing the last place team the week before the playoffs start. It’s looking AWFULLY grim.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2019: We’re Back!

If you want to read back through my 2018 season, click HERE. Follow the links at the top to go back all the way.

This weekly blog post was such a rousing success (and by “success” I mean literally zero people read it) that I absolutely had to run it back. How will it differ? Well, I’m throwing this up on the fly, so we’ll see!

I was in the middle of my great 5-week, cross-country road trip when we drafted on Friday, August 30th, so I was in a motel in Boise when the shit went down. There weren’t too many significant rule changes in our offseason fantasy football meeting, but a major one was an increase from 3 to 4 keepers. As you can see from the link above, I had a pretty good pile of players to choose from. Without belaboring things, here are the four I went with:

  • QB – Carson Wentz
  • RB – Ezekiel Elliott
  • RB – Le’Veon Bell
  • WR – Tyreek Hill

The final spot came down to Hill or Adam Thielen; when it looked like Hill might miss some games to a suspension, I was rolling with Thielen (when Hill was let off the hook, I obviously changed my mind). The fact of the matter is, Hill has the much higher upside. Of course, this was before he got injured in Week 1, causing him to miss a few weeks of the season, so that’s kind of a bummer. Fortunately, it’s only a clavicle injury, so he should be back and ready to rip once the bone heals.

Due to my fourth place finish in the playoffs last year, I ended up drafting 8th overall. It’s a straight draft – as opposed to a snake draft – which means I was picking 8th in every round. With everyone going with four keepers, that’s 40 players off the board before we do anything, so it should be pretty clear the best of the best were gone by the time I selected. My plan going in was to grab Kyler Murray, but he went second overall (after Thielen was taken first), so I had to pivot earlier than I expected. I’ll give you the total rundown, then explain my rationale afterward:

  1. QB – Ben Roethlisberger
  2. RB – Josh Jacobs
  3. WR – T.Y. Hilton
  4. WR – Cooper Kupp
  5. RB – Derrius Guice
  6. WR – Christian Kirk
  7. TE – Vance McDonald
  8. RB – Tony Pollard
  9. K – Justin Tucker
  10. QB – Daniel Jones
  11. DEF – Buffalo

So, if you know anything about our league, you know quarterbacks are vital. It’s a 2-QB league, with TDs worth 6 points (and INT’s worth -4 points), so if you’re not picking quarterbacks high (or keeping them from last year), then you’re not doing it right. I’d already missed out on Lamar Jackson, and lucked out that someone took Jameis Winston, so it came down to Roethlisberger or Rivers for me (though, I may regret letting Dak fall to a rival in the next round).

I had been eyeballing Jacobs for quite some time, and felt fortunate he was still there the next time I picked. There was no debate whatsoever, as plenty of those second-tier RBs were flying off the board. Jacobs should be good right out of the gate, plus he could be a possible keeper in the years to come, should one of my other guys age out.

It got dicey with my third pick, because I’d been salivating over Kenny Golladay all offseason, after it had been announced he was going to be their #1 receiver. The Lions aren’t great, but they like to throw the ball a lot, and Golladay has been looking like a breakout candidate for some time now. He went one pick ahead of me, which left me scrambling. I needed someone to pair with Tyreek Hill, and I had too many running backs already to start filling up my bench with more. In a panic, it came down to Hilton, Tyler Lockett, and Tyler Boyd. I REALLY didn’t want any of these guys, for a variety of reasons. In general, I don’t like having Seahawks on my fantasy roster as a rule; I especially don’t like having Wilson or any receivers, because they can be wildly inconsistent from a fantasy perspective. Boyd is someone I had last year, who was very underwhelming when A.J. Green was out of the lineup and he was thrust into the #1 receiver role (which he would be in the first month or so of the season, with Green’s foot/ankle injury). Hilton is another inconsistent receiver who can be really awesome or get you less than 10 points, with seemingly little in-between. But, the fact of the matter is, I wanted a true #1 receiver to pair with Hill, and even with Luck retired I still like that Indy team. Jacoby Brissett isn’t totally inept, so I rolled the dice with Hilton.

The funny thing is, by the time it got around to my next pick, both Lockett and Boyd were still available! They went with the subsequent two picks after mine. I went with Kupp because I’d heard all the great things about his pre-season and his improved health, plus I just REALLY wanted a piece of that Rams offense, and he was the last viable candidate left on the board. In an ideal world, I’d have Robert Woods back, but he was snagged a few picks before I took Hilton. Kupp isn’t a world-beater, but he’s always good for a chunk of targets, and you never know if/when he’ll have a breakout game/season.

With my next pick, I thought I had something special. I thought I had a potential League Winner. Guice was Washington’s main dude in the draft in 2018 before he got injured and lost his rookie season. With him back in the fold, it felt like only a matter of time before he took over sole possession of the RB1 role on that team. Even if I had to hold onto him for a few weeks before he ascended, it would’ve been worth it.

I took Kirk next because Will Fuller V went a few picks earlier, and I really wanted a piece of that Arizona offense. I took McDonald because there weren’t many good tight ends left, and with AB gone in Pittsburgh, it seemed only natural that he’d see an uptick in targets. I took Pollard as an Elliott handcuff, as he still wasn’t extended by the time we drafted. I took Tucker because kickers are weirdly important in fantasy (even though they should be totally outlawed, and I’ll never stop fighting for this cause, because the variation is too random from week to week) and I wanted a guy I didn’t have to worry about. I took Daniel Jones because I still hadn’t drafted a backup QB. Roethlisberger’s BYE isn’t until week 7, and my hope was that he’d take over the starting job by then (and, if he pans out, he could be a possible keeper candidate for 2020). I took Buffalo because they were on the board, and I’d heard some good things (if nothing else, they were playing the Jets in Week 1, so that felt like a safe way to grab some cheap points).

Before Week 1 started, once everyone on waivers reverted back to free agents, I grabbed A.J. Green and stashed him in my IR slot. If he comes back in October, that could be a real boon. I wouldn’t expect him to play the rest of the season upon his return, but if he can get me a few big weeks, that should be something.

My team’s name is Space Pirates! There’s another team in the league referencing the good ol’ Space Force, so I’m going the other direction with it. We like to have fun.

Anyway, in Week 1, Space Pirates! squared off against Korky Butchek (the third place finisher in the playoffs last year). He’s the guy who knocked me from the 7th overall draft pick to the 8th; he’s also the guy who took Golladay from me. So, the revenge factor was pretty high on my part.

I got absolutely great games out of Wentz, Hilton (of all people), Bell, and Jacobs (all ranging from 23-34 points each). Buffalo got me a solid 17 points, Tucker got me 11, and everyone else did just enough (Roethlisberger, of course, stunk up the joint, and Hill’s injury knocked him out pretty early which also hurt ME). Korky Butchek had great games from DeAndre Hopkins and Evan Engram, but it wasn’t nearly enough. I took care of business to the tune of a 172.25-152.70 victory. That was good for just the fourth-highest total of the first week, putting me in fourth place.

I didn’t put in any waiver claims with my #3 waiver priority, so I held off until the wee hours of Wednesday morning before making my pickups. As a result, I now have the #1 waiver priority, which I fully intend to hoard until someone amazing comes along.

First thing’s first, I grabbed T.J. Hockenson from the Lions. He had a tremendous first week, and with people comparing him to Gronk, that felt like a no-brainer (I dropped Tony Pollard, because with so few bench spots, keeping handcuffs is a luxury few can afford). I also got Darren Waller, as with AB gone from the Raiders, he’s set to see a huge number of targets in the passing game (I dropped McDonald, because I just don’t trust Roethlisberger or the Steelers to ever make their TE a focal point in the passing game). Finally, with Guice set to hit the actual IR for the next 8 weeks, I set him loose, picking up a proper backup QB in Gardner Minshew. Consider me a believer in the moustache! Again, if he pans out (and he was terrific in replacing an injured Nick Foles last week), that’s another possible keeper for next year.

See, with a league like this, you have to always be thinking about the next year. Selling out to “win now” just isn’t tenable, because you’ll set yourself back YEARS in the process, all for what’s essentially a lottery ticket. I feel like I have a pretty good mix of both veterans who are great now, with younger guys who could develop into stars.

The obvious downside to my season so far is that the injury bug is crippling my depth. Hill is out 4-6 weeks, which is actually less time than Green is expected to be out, so I moved Hill to the IR spot. And, with Guice gone, my RB depth takes a big hit (for a position that gets injured as much as this one, you just can’t have enough quality RBs on your roster). I opted to go Waller over Hockenson for my TE spot, because I need to see at least another week out of the Lions’ rookie before I totally fall for the Gronk hype. I’ve got Hilton and Kupp as my starting receivers, as Kupp is more dependable than Kirk (plus the Cards are playing the tough Ravens defense). Everything else is the same, with my 3-headed RB hydra of Elliott, Bell, and Jacobs all locked in (two RB slots and my FLEX).

This week, I’m going up against Sloane N Steady, who is the only guy in our league with worse luck right now, in that he has no Luck at all (HI-YO!). He had the unfortunate occurrence of locking in Andrew Luck as one of his four keepers just a day before he announced his retirement. With Luck & Aaron Rodgers as two of his keepers the last few years, he was probably the most settled of anyone in the league at his QB spots. But, not only did he get Thielen with the first overall draft pick, in the second round he got Rivers as his QB2, which is an awesome find.

Sloane N Steady’s team looks quite formidable. Rodgers and Rivers. Thielen and Amari Cooper. Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb. Delanie Walker (TE) and James White (FLEX). Dallas’ kicker and New England’s defense. With bench spots devoted to Mike Williams, Jordan Howard, Donte Moncrief, and Derek Carr. At the time of this posting, I’m favored by less than 3 points; I have to imagine it’s going to be as close as advertised.

When the dust of Sunday settles, it’ll be Chubb vs. Bell on Monday Night Football to likely decide who wins or loses. Space Pirates! had a mighty scare when Bell went in for an MRI this week, but it looks like he’s playing. Regardless, if his touches are limited as a result of whatever this shoulder thing is, I think I’m toast. The rest of Sloane N Steady’s team plays in the 10am Sunday window, so I’ll certainly be playing from behind for the entire day.

The Seahawks Go To Dallas This Saturday For A Wild Card Showdown

In week 3 of the regular season, the Seahawks hosted the Cowboys and beat them 24 to 13. It was the immortal game where the 0-2 Seahawks first started their re-dedication to running the football. Chris Carson carried it a whopping 32 times after being limited to just 6 carries the week prior (where the coaching staff either forgot about him, or doubted his conditioning). That proved to be a mistake, and the Dallas game proved it, as he racked up 102 yards and a touchdown.

That’s not an amazing average, but the Cowboys in 2018 had one of the top defenses in the league against the run (giving up the 5th fewest yards per game and yards per attempt), so you have to figure just having a 100-yard back is pretty amazing.

The thing about this matchup is: these aren’t the same Cowboys. Those Cowboys – after their week 3 defeat – fell to 1-2 (the same record as the Seahawks). The Cowboys would eventually fall to 3-5 at the midway point in the season, which was right around the time they traded a first round pick to the Raiders for Amari Cooper. The Cowboys finished their season 7-1 to win the NFC East and earn this first round home game.

Regardless of the quality of your opponents, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. They beat the Eagles twice, and the #1 seed Saints at home; their only loss was a flukey road game against Indy where they were shut out. But, other than that, the Cowboys have been one of the more clutch teams, winning all 7 of those late-season games by 8 points or less. They have the league’s #1 running back in Ezekiel Elliott, they figured out how to unleash Amari Cooper after he’d been floundering in Oakland for the last few seasons, and Dak Prescott has stepped his game back up after a rocky sophomore campaign.

More importantly, their defense is legit, and apparently they have Kris Richard to thank?! They’ve given up the 7th fewest yards and 6th fewest points. They’re middle-of-the-road in sacks, but don’t be fooled, because they can generate a ton of pressure. I already talked about their rush defense being key, but their pass defense is no slouch either, giving up just 234.7 yards per game.

But, here’s the other thing about this matchup: these aren’t the same Seahawks either.

We all know what the Seahawks have done – going 10-4 since week 2, while putting up a fight in each of our losses against tough opponents – and what the Seahawks are good at. So, let’s talk about how it relates to this game on Saturday.

The absolute key of keys will be the offensive line. D.J. Fluker appears to be ready to go, and it sounds like J.R. Sweezy will give it a try and see how he feels on gameday. Having them both back and healthy is going to be critical, not just for this game, but for the rest of this season. I mean, you saw what happened last week, when both of them sat out! The Cardinals almost upset us! You saw what happened against the 49ers when we had to fill some holes; it was a disaster!

If either of them miss time in this game, we’re in trouble. Because if the #1-A key to this game is the O-Line, then #1-B is turnovers. The Cowboys aren’t particularly great – on either side of the ball – at turnovers, so if we give them additional possessions, we’re probably going to be fucked. Their defense is too good for us to overcome a ton of mistakes. On the flipside, if OUR defense can knock the ball out of their hands and recover some of those fumbles, we might be talking about a serious spanking.

On a neutral field, if you played this game 100 times, I think the Seahawks win more than they lose. On this particular field, on this particular day, I think the Seahawks are more than capable of doing what needs to be done. Odds are – if we do prevail – we’ll have to go on the road to play New Orleans, which is a TALL order, and will likely require some of that special Russell Wilson goodness. I’d like to save that – if there is indeed a finite amount of it in the 2018 season – for next week, and just take care of business here against the Cowboys.

On the flipside, I’m worried about Zeke. That dude is a STUD and our defense has been pretty weak at stopping the run this year. Thankfully, we have Bobby Wagner, who is our rock. Maybe even MORE thankfully, K.J. Wright is back and playing like his old self. He’s going to be our defensive #1-A key, because not only will he need to track Elliott, but he’ll likely find himself shading towards Cole Beasley whenever Justin Coleman isn’t on him. We all know what Amari Cooper can do. I’m sure he’ll get his, but I have my doubts that he’ll blow up like he has at times since the trade. I do fear Beasley quite a bit, because he’s shifty, he’s quick, and he tears up those underneath routes (which our defense tends to give up, as we do everything in our power to prevent opposing offense from taking the top off). So, covering him will be critical, but more importantly, SOUND TACKLING will be the name of the game.

We lose this game if we lose the turnover battle, and if we get tore apart on 3rd down. If Dak has a clean pocket, he can easily dink and dunk his way down the field on us, so let’s wrap up, let’s take good angles, and let’s stay healthy out there! I know a lot of our depth is injured, so keeping our able bodies on the field will be super important.

In the end – like with most every Seahawks game – I think it’s a coin flip. I’d give the edge to the good guys, but if we’re all disappointed come Saturday night, I won’t be shocked. If the Seahawks DO win, don’t be surprised if it’s some oddball score, so I’m going to predict something in the realm of 26-12. Don’t ask me how we get to that number, but that’s what I’m going with.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 9

Man, that was a squeaker!

By all rights, I should’ve lost last week.  In the end, I have my opponent to thank.

In the flurry of mid-week moves made in our league come Wednesday morning of last week, The Lance Petemans picked up Dion Lewis and dropped Chris Carson.  Per his description, Carson fucked him all year long, so of course the week he drops him is the week I claim him and he goes for 105 yards and a touchdown (20.40 points in total).  Had someone with a higher waiver priority made a play for Carson, my backup emergency fill-in RB for Ezekiel Elliott on his BYE was likely going to be Kenjon Barner (my thought process being: Sony Michel was injured, the Pats were likely to kill the Bills, and hopefully Barner would get me a goalline TD for my trouble).  Barner ended up getting all of 0.40, a full 20 points less than Carson.  King Flippy Nips beat The Lance Petemans 171.70 to 160.94, so you go ahead and do the math while I wait here and smoke this victory cigar.

I never in my wildest dreams figured I’d pick up a running back I actually wanted to keep around on my roster; I thought I’d get a guy for the week, be disappointed, and drop him as soon as humanly possible.  But, Carson isn’t only a viable plug n’ play, he might actually be a Must Start.  I don’t want to get ahead of myself, because he’s only had 2 good games out of 7, but this is the guy I was expecting coming into the draft (when I selected him in my other league WAY too early).

I got a lot of good play up and down my lineup.  Derek Carr got me almost 40 on my bench, but Wentz & Dalton both had 27+.  Thielen and Peterson also got me over 20, and the rest of my skill guys got me 10+.  Matt Prater had a crap game, and Chicago’s defense certainly missed Khalil Mack, but all in all it was a full team effort.

Having Tyreek Hill go down with a groin injury is far from ideal, but if there’s a position I can afford to have some injuries in, it’s wide receiver.  Woods is a Must Start for me at this point, and I’ve got plenty of depth to fill out my FLEX spot.  I just hope Hill’s injury doesn’t linger too long, and he isn’t beset with constant setbacks.

The victory brought me back to .500 at 4-4.  I’m in 4th place, comfortably in 3rd place in total points scored, and 6th in points against.

Week 9 is the week I’ve been dreading (and had blocked out of my mind to this point) all year.  On top of Leonard Fournette being on BYE (here’s hoping he’s back and starting in Week 10), I have not one but TWO quarterbacks on BYE.  Yes, this is a 2-QB league, and yes, I only have 3 QBs on my roster.  What’s more, Wentz was a keeper and the other two were draft picks, meaning I did this to myself.  Did I realize it when I picked Dalton?  Probably not.  Did I do anything about it back when I had a chance to grab someone off waivers?  Well, I owned FitzMagic for a hot minute, but dropped him back when he was benched for Jameis.

You can see where I’m going with this.  By picking up Chris Carson, my waiver priority fell; I was 9th out of 10 teams heading into this week.  Now, luckily I got the win last week, which I absolutely prefer to getting a chance to claim FitzMagic this week, so in that sense I don’t totally regret missing out on him.

Brock Osweiler was the only free agent quarterback available who looks like he’ll get a start this week.  That’s suboptimal, but what are you gonna do?  In the flurry of waiver moves on Wednesday morning, Sam Darnold was thrown to the wolves, so I put in a claim for him.  It won’t go through until Friday, so stay tuned!

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Derek Carr @ SF
  • QB2 – Brock Osweiler vs. NYJ
  • WR1 – Adam Thielen vs. DET
  • WR2 – Robert Woods @ NO
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott vs. TEN
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson vs. ATL
  • TE – Greg Olsen vs. TB
  • FLEX – Kenny Golladay @ MIN
  • K – Matt Prater @ MIN
  • DEF – Chicago @ BUF

My bench is:  Wentz (BYE), Dalton (BYE), Fournette (BYE), Carson, Hill, Devonta Freeman (IR).

As usual, the big decision I had was Olsen vs. Reed.  This week, I like the Panthers TE against the poor Bucs defense because they give up a ton of points to tight ends (whereas the Falcons’ defense is middle-of-the-road against tight ends).  Since Fournette is no longer an option for the IR spot, I had to create two openings before I could make any moves.  I dropped Jordan Reed so I could slide Fournette back to my bench.  Both Reed and Olsen are injury-prone (in spite of the fact that Reed hasn’t missed a game this year), but I like Olsen’s upside in a more prolific offense.  The other move was dropping Calvin Ridley for Osweiler.  Considering I’ve still got Golladay on my bench – and his role figures to increase now that the Lions traded Golden Tate – I feel I have plenty of top-shelf wide receiver depth on my roster.

The other big decision this week was Golladay over Carson for my FLEX.  Carson is really touchdown-dependent, but the Seahawks have been super-committed to him (as well they should be, because he’s far-and-away the best running back on this team and it’s not even close).  Golladay conversely, got lost in the shuffle the last two weeks with all the other Lions’ weapons stepping up.  Minnesota’s defense is pretty good against wide receivers, so for a while there I had Carson in my lineup.  But, with the trade of Golden Tate, Golladay HAS to see an increase in production.  Considering I feel the Lions will have to throw a lot to stay in this game, I think Golladay is both the safer play and the higher-ceiling play (as you’ll see tomorrow, I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Seahawks beating the Chargers).

This week, I’m going up against Beasts.  Last week, I talked about how The Lance Petemans have won the league championship every other year for the last too-many-years; well, the guy who’s won the league championship ALMOST every other year that The Lance Petemans failed to wrap it up was Beasts.  In back-to-back weeks I’m playing arguably the two best fantasy owners in our league’s history.  Great.

Here’s Beasts’ lineup:

  • QB1 – Russell Wilson vs. LAC
  • QB2 – Matt Ryan @ WAS
  • WR1 – Brandin Cooks @ NO
  • WR2 – Jarvis Landry vs. KC
  • RB1 – Christian McCaffrey vs. TB
  • RB2 – Phillip Lindsay vs. HOU
  • TE – Kyle Rudolph vs. DET
  • FLEX – Julian Edelman vs. GB
  • K – Graham Gano vs. TB
  • DEF – Minnesota vs. DET

His bench is:  Bortles (BYE), Tevin Coleman, Cooper Kupp, Doug Martin, Amari Cooper.

His quarterbacks should be rock solid in their games.  It’s sort of appalling how often the Rams try to force it into Cooks (when Woods is so much more wide open all the time!), and Landry is just a target machine against a terrible pass defense.  McCaffrey is a fantasy god going up against an even worse defense, and Phillip Lindsay pretty much owns that backfield now.  There really isn’t a weak player in the bunch; I guess I don’t love Minnesota’s defense against an offense like Detroit’s.  Nevertheless, my team is going to need to bring its A-game.

For what it’s worth, I like my non-QBs this week.  Chicago has a legitimate chance to be the best defense of the week (so watch them lay an egg somehow).  My kicker figures to have a nice bounce-back performance in a should-be high-scoring game.  All of my receivers look like they’ll be in games where their teams are throwing a lot.  And, here’s hoping Zeke comes back with a vengeance after a BYE week’s rest.  My hunch is that I lose this one, but I’ve got some guys that can keep me close.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: The All-Important Draft

See the first post in this series for what I’m talking about here.

Well, we did it.  I drafted my team and, if I do say so myself, I think I did a pretty good job!  Of course, I always say so myself, because why wouldn’t I?  I brought in these players, I must like them to some extent!  Because they’ve yet to disappoint me.

It’s all downhill from here.

As I talked about last time, my 3 keepers are Wentz, Fournette, and Elliott.  Since I had my RBs set, I didn’t have to focus on them too much in the early going.  So, after the first three rounds took care of the keepers, I went to work bolstering my WR unit.

I picked 8th, in every round.  I won’t list out every single pick, but I’ll at least show you the first round, to give you an idea of the players we had available:

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Saquon Barkley
  3. Melvin Gordon
  4. Cam Newton
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. Davante Adams
  7. Matthew Stafford

So, those were the guys taken right before me.  Both of the top QBs that were left out there, the top 3 RBs, and my two favorite WRs.  I was bound and determined to get a receiver; the available ones were:  A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Gronk (technically a TE, but still), T.Y. Hilton, and Tyreek Hill.  I went with Hill.  I like Mahomes a lot, I like that offense, I think Hill is a stud in the prime of his career who will be the focal point of that passing game (as opposed to the tight end-centric offense run under Alex Smith), and I just believe he has the highest upside to really blow out some games.

I should point out that all of those other receivers I listed off were taken by the time I drafted again.  I still wanted to go WR – to knock that position out of the way – even though I desperately needed a second QB (and, one might argue, a FIRST QB, since who knows when Wentz will be ready).  Adam Thielen was sitting there and he felt like an obvious pick, so I took him (the other WRs were Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, and Doug Baldwin; I think I made clearly the best choice).

By my next pick, all of those receivers were gone, as well as the next two best tight ends (Kelce and Ertz), so I went into the QB well.  No more QBs were taken after Cam & Stafford, so I had my pick of the shit-filled kitty litter.  I went with Derek Carr, upside over recent success.  I think he’ll be a transformed player under Jon Gruden and even if the Raiders are a terrible team, I think they’ll be behind in a lot of games and throwing the ball a ton.  Plus, they don’t really have a defined #1 RB (a respectable committee led by Beastmode), so I think this could be great for me.  The other QBs available were Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Blake “The Bort” Bortles, Dak Prescott, and Case Keenum.  Ben is obviously better, but I can’t trust him to play a full season.  I might regret not taking Alex Smith though.

When it came back to me, in Round 7, Demaryius Thomas was still sitting there at the top of the Yahoo rankings.  I needed a flex guy, and honestly the value I was getting for Denver’s #1 receiver was too good to pass up.  I might’ve gotten the steal of the draft, or he might be the bust that everyone is expecting.  We’ll see, I’ll take my chances.  By taking him, though, I missed out on Chris Carson, his teammate Emmanuel Sanders, Jacksonville’s defense, the Rams’ defense, Allen Robinson, and Corey Davis, among others.

In Round 8, I took the best tight end available (who was also among the best overall players available), Greg Olsen.  My plan going into the draft was to wait until one of the last three rounds to take a tight end (as well as a defense and a kicker), but Olsen is elite, and the drop-off in tight ends was significant (plus, like I said, he was one of the top players remaining).  I missed out on Marquise Goodwin, Mark Ingram, and Minnesota’s defense, among others.

Next, I started filling my bench, with Robert Woods leading the way.  At this point, I still haven’t grabbed a third RB, and that might be my undoing if I have injuries to my top two guys.  A run on RBs went right after I took Woods, with guys like Lynch, Peyton Barber, Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson, Dion Lewis, and Carlos Hyde all going off the board.

In Round 10, I went back to QB, because it’s always smart to have a competent third (in case of injuries, BYEs, or if Derek Carr really does suck), so I bought low on Andy Dalton.  In Round 10 of a 2-QB league, I think I got really good value on this one too.  Plus, I think everyone is severely underrating him this year, and I like him to bounce back in a big way.  I passed on Jameis Winson, because I can’t have his 3-game suspension hanging over my head if I don’t know Wentz’s status those weeks and I didn’t want to have to roster 4 QBs.  I also passed on guys like Mitch Trubisky, Mayfield & Darnold, Ryan Tannehill, and Eli Manning, which I’m okay with.

Next up, Adrian Peterson was still there, so I grabbed him.  I don’t know if that’s going to work out for me, but he’s a #1 RB in the 11th round, so beggars can’t be choosers.  The other RBs available were all backups or in time-shares (Latavius Murray, Sony Michel, James Conner, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, and Marlon Mack, among others).  If worse comes to worse and I need an RB off waivers, I’m sure I can find someone, so I’m not too worried about it.  If best comes to best, then in AP I have a 1,000-yard rusher on a good offense.  (I will say that I’m disappointed that Will Fuller V was taken 2 picks after this; I think he’s a stud).

In Round 12, Jordan Reed was still there, so I grabbed him.  Yep, the guy who was going to wait and take whatever TE was left over in the final rounds … ended up drafting TWO of them.  But, when healthy, Reed is a Top 3 TE.  And now he has Alex Smith throwing to him, the ultimate in TE-friendly QBs.  Plus, Greg Olsen is getting up there, so it’s nice to have some TE insurance.

In the lucky 13th round, I grabbed Kenny Stills.  All the podcasts I was listening to in the week leading up to the draft cited this guy as a potential break-out player.  Tannehill apparently loves him, he’s a target monster, and with Landry out of the picture, he should be the team’s #1.  I am CRUSHING this draft with all the value I’m getting!

In the final two rounds, I finally had to go grab a defense and a kicker.  I drafted Baltimore’s defense in the 14th, and ‘Frisco’s Robbie Gould in the 15th.  Whatever.

Yahoo’s stupid grading system put me in the middle of the pack with a B grade.  It hated my Derek Carr pick (about 6 rounds too early according to ADP?), but it loves my Thielen pick, as well as my RB keepers.  My team is the 2nd oldest in the league, which might be troubling; then again, my tendency is to draft a lot of young guys and where has it gotten me?  Nowhere near the championship trophy, that’s for damn sure.

So, we’ll see how it goes.  My schedule is one of the toughest in the league, so that’s fucking great.  Then again, why should I trust Yahoo’s grading?