I’ll preface this by saying: you can’t do anything without a quarterback. That’s obvious. Everyone knows it, so there’s really not even much point in bringing it up, except if you don’t bring it up, then wise-asses will come on here and tell me I forgot about the quarterback position.
There are all kinds of different types of quarterbacks that can win you a championship, as evidenced by the last decade or so of NFL champions. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady are going to go down as all-time greats. Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger likely won’t. Doesn’t mean they’re BAD; just means that no one is going to put them in their Top 10 All Time Greatest Quarterbacks list.
For the record, my picks:
- Joe Montana
- Tom Brady
- John Elway
- Peyton Manning
- Dan Marino
- Steve Young
- Johnny Unitas
- Brett Favre
- Drew Brees
- Warren Moon
But, that’s neither here nor there. The point is, the quarterback is crucial. It’s too early to say where Russell Wilson will fall on that list, but I’d venture to say we’d still be ringless if he had to carry a team with an underperforming defense last season.
And that’s what the elite quarterback will afford you. The elites – like Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Brees, etc. – can cover up for just a so-so defense. Of course, the fact that all of those quarterbacks only have one championship apiece will tell you that a quarterback can’t do it by himself (and, truth be told, the years their respective teams won it all, their defenses weren’t that bad).
The more talent you have around your quarterback, the less perfect your quarterback has to be (hence why Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger both have two championships each). But, the NFL has a salary cap, and teams have got to find a way to fit 53 players into that cap (plus a little extra to make up for injuries and such). So, HOW you build around your quarterback is just about as important as the quarterback itself.
There isn’t exactly one specific way to run your team, but I’ll tell you this much: you’re not going to get very far without a good defense. That means one of two things: elite pass rush, or elite secondary (or, ideally both). Without really delving deep into things, I think it’s pretty safe to say that at least half of NFL teams are pretty happy with their quarterbacks. I don’t think it’s out of the question to say that at least half of the teams have a guy under center capable of winning it all (assuming everything breaks right and they have a good team around them). So, you figure that at least half the time, your defense is going to face a pretty good quarterback.
Now, if you’re going to build a defense to combat all those pretty good-to-great quarterbacks, you’ve got to have one of the two aforementioned qualities: an elite pass rush or an elite secondary. It’s all about disrupting the quarterback’s timing and forcing him to do things he doesn’t want to do. If you’ve got the pass rush, then odds are you’ll be able to force him to throw early; if you’ve got the secondary, then odds are you’ll be able to force him to throw late (and hopefully give your adequate pass rush enough time to get home). So, it would stand to reason that if you’re building your roster to win a championship, you’re going to focus the bulk of your defensive salary cap on edge rushers and/or the secondary.
What you DON’T want to do is start pumping a bunch of money down into your linebackers and interior linemen. Unless that interior lineman is in the Cortez Kennedy/Warren Sapp mold, you’re probably overpaying. You can find wide-bodies just about anywhere, on the cheap, no problem. Ditto linebackers. People will point to some of the quality guys like Patrick Willis and Luke Kuechly, and I will admit that those dudes are pretty awesome at what they do. But, you know who else is pretty awesome? Bobby Wagner. He’s a second round pick making a fraction of what those guys are making and will make. Bobby Wagner isn’t heralded in the least, but he’s still awesome. And, I would venture that you can find a TON of Bobby Wagners in the draft, which will save you money in the long run over massive extensions for the Kuechlys of the world.
Take a look at the Seahawks. We’ve pumped some serious money into Earl Thomas, Michael Bennett, Kam Chancellor, and soon we’ll devote a whole bunch more into Richard Sherman. Pass rush & secondary. Where are we finding savings? How about three linebackers (Wagner, Wright, Smith) all drafted in the 2nd round or later, all still on rookie deals. Now, the Seahawks MIGHT extend one or more of those guys when the time comes, but I bet they’ll be mid-range contracts that don’t kill our cap for years to come.
We’re also saving money on our interior line. Brandon Mebane has a $5 million APY, and that leads the team on interior line spending. Tony McDaniel is on a short-term, on-the-cheap deal, and the rest of our interior guys are on rookie contracts.
Of course, the Seahawks could always use a little more pass rush security. Maybe Cliff Avril gets extended beyond this year. Maybe we hit on someone in the draft. Maybe we pick up another team’s cast-off. Or, maybe we just try to hold the fort and steal another team’s outgoing free agent next year.
The point is: pass rush & secondary = big money players. Linebackers & interior linemen = savings.
On offense, the Seahawks have proven that a run-first model isn’t entirely out-dated. Nevertheless, their spending in this area kinda sorta is.
Marshawn Lynch has the fourth-highest average per-year salary on the team (behind Harvin, Thomas, and Okung). His contact runs out after the 2015 season. Nobody really expects Lynch to see the final year of that deal as it’s currently configured, because nobody really expects Lynch to continue playing at the high level he’s been at the last three or four years. Plus, there’s the whole issue with Russell Wilson getting his money after the 2014 season (when the team can negotiate an extension and finally pay him what he’s really worth).
As you can see from all the free agent deals for running backs this off-season, they’re not getting the kind of money they used to get even 10 years ago. It sounds crazy when you think of someone like Chris Johnson, who can only get a 2-year deal; he was once the best runner in football and he’s NOT THAT OLD. Same goes for these other guys. What kind of a deal would Ben Tate have gotten even five years ago? Now, he’s playing for peanuts, as is MJD, Darren McFadden, and every other running back who hits free agency.
Why is that? Because teams are reluctant to go with the one-back system and instead opt for a By-Committee approach. Because injuries are a son of a bitch. And because all too often, a no-name guy from the back-end of the draft will enter the mix in the NFL and be just as good, if not better, than these over-paid mama’s boys (Trent Richardson) who somehow still get drafted high.
All of this tells me one thing: you’re foolish if you’re pumping too much money into the running back position.
The Seahawks have the luxury of paying Marshawn Lynch a high salary because they’re paying next-to-nothing for Russell Wilson (and the quarterback position at large). But, when Wilson’s commanding around $20 million per season, you’ve got to find ways to cut corners somewhere. I would wager the Seahawks will pull some of that money out of the running back position (which is a shame, because everyone loves Marshawn Lynch with a passion).
It’ll be difficult, for the Seahawks more than others, because we DO rely on the run so much to make our offense go. The run sets up the play-action pass. The run keeps defenses honest. The run also reduces the risk of turnovers, because if we’re successfully running the ball, then we’re not throwing as much. If we’re not throwing as much, then we’re not throwing as many interceptions. Bing, bang, boom. So, the Seahawks can’t throw just any ol’ scrub in the backfield and expect to succeed.
To do what I advocate, you have to draft wisely and you have to draft often. Finding value in a guy like Christine Michael (if he does, indeed, turn out to be the elite runner we all expect) will set us up for a good long while. Yet, even if we were saddled with only Robert Turbin and whoever else via draft, I’d be content.
Because as long as you put value and talent into your offensive line, it really shouldn’t matter who you have at running back.
Under my system – which incidentally is the one the Seahawks have been using – you’ve got to have a great left tackle. Russell Okung fits that mold. He’s not quite Walter Jones, but then again, who is? You SHOULD be able to cut corners a little bit on the guard spots, as long as you’ve got a great center. The Seahawks have Max Unger, who is pretty terrific. I’d like to see a breakdown of the best centers and how often they’re involved in lengthy playoff runs, because I think they’re WAY more important than most people give them credit for.
Under almost no circumstances should you be paying elite money to a guard. Unless you know you’re getting someone like Hutch in his prime. At which point, you should probably find a value center and make due with a so-so right tackle. Obviously, you can’t pay everyone, but you should probably have at least two guys who are worthy of high-paying contracts.
If you’re a bad team, get that left tackle with a high draft pick. There is ALWAYS an elite left tackle coming out in the draft. So, if you have a high draft pick, make that guy your first priority. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have a wonderful coach like Tom Cable, so try to get yourselves one of those.
The model isn’t perfect, obviously. The Seahawks had two great linemen and a bunch of injuries last year and really struggled to protect the quarterback. That’s where your QB comes into play. You can put a crappy QB behind an elite O-Line and make some hay. You probably won’t win many championships, but you can consistently make the playoffs. The worse your O-Line is, though, the better your quarterback must be. Russell Wilson probably isn’t an elite QB just yet, but he was good enough to make up for all the injuries and inconsistencies we suffered last year.
And, of course, that leads us to the passing game. You can run the football all you want, but unless you can throw the ball when it counts, you’re not going to go all the way. Ask Adrian Peterson about that, I’m sure he’s got some stories to tell.
Like I said at the top, you need the quarterback, but it helps if he has talent to throw to.
Some quarterbacks – like Brees, Peyton Manning, etc. – will turn any receiver into a 1,000 yard threat. Others – I’m looking at you Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, etc. – need their receivers to elevate their games.
Andy Dalton would be a poor man’s Kyle Orton if he didn’t have A.J. Green. Kaepernick was God-awful last year without Crabtree! And Jay Cutler’s a fucking mess WITH guys like Brandon Marshall, but just imagine how terrible he’d be without him.
Now, say what you will about our receivers, but I think they’ve been pretty great. And, until Percy Harvin came along, they’ve been relatively cheap as well.
Again, a great quarterback will make up for a lot of deficiencies. I have no doubt that someone like Russell Wilson makes someone like Jermaine Kearse a better football player. It’s tough to say what Kearse’s ceiling would be in an offense that passes as much as New Orleans or Green Bay, but I bet it would be higher than you’d think if you had someone like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees throwing the ball around 35 times a game.
Our offense doesn’t need to over-spend at the wide receiver position, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t. If you can get someone like Percy Harvin, you probably should do it. If you draft someone and he turns out to be the next Calvin Johnson, then you should probably do whatever it takes to keep him.
This can be a little tricky, because if your #1 receiver is making top quarterback money, AND if you happen to have one of those top quarterbacks, then you can get into a situation like they’ve got down in Detroit. The Lions should probably worry about pumping their resources into an offensive line, or a secondary, to round out their team (and not, for instance, over-pay for someone like Golden Tate, but you didn’t hear that from me).
There are talented receivers out there in the draft and among the undrafted free agents, but you gotta be smart about it. I would more than be in favor of an A-B-C salary structure for your top three receivers. Your A-player gets the lion’s share, your B-player gets a healthy mid-level contract, and your C-player is probably a rookie or a young guy on a cheap deal.
In short, on offense, you’re going to want to pump a lot of money into the quarterback and the offensive line. Stay away from overpaying running backs and tight ends (unless you’ve got one like Jimmy Graham that plays more like a wide receiver anyway). And, just be smart about paying your receivers. If you’re only going to throw 20-25 times per game, maybe don’t throw all your eggs into the receiver basket. But, don’t leave the cupboard completely barren either.
The point of all of this is to say that the Seahawks are doing it the right way. If you root for another team, and they happen to be struggling, then follow the money. Where are their big-money contracts going? Would they be better off putting that money elsewhere? Are they making the same mistakes over and over? Then, you might be a
redneck Mariners fan, and get out of my brain.