Tag Archives: Brian Fleury

Can The Seahawks Continue To Be Elite In Early Scoring?

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What has stood out to me more than anything through two preseason Seahawks games is the fact that the Seahawks scored first on both of their opening possessions (and both scores were touchdowns).

It’s so funny to me that the entirety of the Pete Carroll Era – especially with Russell Wilson at the helm – was the old adage of, “Can you win the game in the first quarter … and so on and so forth?” Those teams prided themselves on coming back and winning games late. It was an exciting brand of football, to be sure (if you avoided the weekly heart attacks this team tried to give you), and it’s hard to argue with results. I know we all would’ve preferred more, but a Super Bowl victory and two Super Bowl appearances speak for themselves.

When, in reality, it very much DOES matter how you do in the first quarter! Indeed, with every quarter containing the same number of minutes, it’s like EVERY quarter matters the same!

The 2025 Seahawks led the NFL in first quarter scoring, averaging 6.8 points (the Rams were second with 6.5 points; the Patriots were fourth with 6.1 points). Seems relevant, doesn’t it?

Did you also know that teams who lead after the first quarter go on to win nearly 70% of the time? Sure seems like all those Pete Carroll teams were doing things the hard way!

I can kind of see it the other way, if I talk through it a little bit. This presupposes you have an elite defense; it makes sense to slow the game down, reduce possessions, and then throw up the throttle late only if you need a score. But, it’s so much better to get that early lead, and then lean on your defense to force the other team into being one-dimensional. That’ll generate more stops, more turnovers, and run up the score for your team.

The 2025 Seahawks scored on their first possession four times (five if you count the playoffs); across the league, it’s anywhere from 35-40% of the time when teams score on their first possession, so that’s kind of in line. I will say the 49ers (since we got our OC from them) only scored on their first possession three times in 2025; something to think about.

The 2025 Seahawks led after the first quarter in only 12 of their 20 games (including playoffs), which is kind of surprising to me. I would’ve thought it might be higher, with the way people talk about how often we scored early. The only game where we led after the first quarter and lost was against the Bucs. It’s not entirely mandatory that we jump out early, but it certainly helps.

If we get even more granular – again, considering the Seahawks have scored on both of their preseason opening drives – I wanted to know the percentage of teams who win the game after scoring on their opening possession. Turns out, it’s around 60-65% of the time. And, if you defer, stop them, and THEN score on your opening possession, that percentage bumps up to around 70% (even higher if that score is a touchdown).

This whole thought exercise is a byproduct of my anxiety over Brian Fleury being a first-time play-caller. I’m trying my best to keep my confidence in how this whole operation is going to look with the loss of Kubiak, and taking solace in our ability to show up on these preseason opening drives is what I’ve got right now.

I say this knowing full well I’ve jinxed the Seahawks for tonight’s game against the Chiefs, but what are you gonna do?

Can the Seahawks continue this trend into the regular season? Will this be something that Fleury can hang his hat on?

The 49ers notoriously script their first however many plays. I don’t necessarily know how effective that is, since again, they only scored on their opening possession three times last year. But, it would stand to reason this is a strategy Fleury will take with him to Seattle.

I would love for the early scoring trend to continue for this team. I feel like it just brings this sense of relaxation over the proceedings, especially if you can crack the endzone early. It also buys you some wiggle room, in the event that the other team makes adjustments and you’re not necessarily as effective going forward. Get an early TD and a few field goals through three quarters, that’s 16 points and you’ve got a-whole-nother 15 minutes of action left to play! If this defense can’t keep you in the game with 16 points through three quarters, then I’ll eat my hat!

So, that’s what I’m going to be looking for tonight, and that’s what I’ll be looking for in the first month of the regular season. Can the Seahawks keep it up with first quarter scoring? If yes, that’s a great sign for things to come.

If not … then it’s one more thing we have to worry about.

Bigger Regression Candidate: Seahawks or Rams?

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The Seahawks and Rams were the two best teams in football in the 2025 season. I think the only other team close to their level in the AFC was the Houston Texans, and clearly C.J. Stroud didn’t give them a chance to do anything in the playoffs. As for the NFC, there was just no doubt. The way it played out in the regular season; the way it played out in the playoffs, the NFC Championship Game was the only game that mattered when push came to shove.

This year, on paper, I believe it’s the Seahawks and Rams again. I know, technically, the Ravens and Bills have better Super Bowl odds, but that’s just Lamar and Josh bias. Their defenses are still painfully mid, and there’s question marks all over those organizations. So I’m again going to dismiss the AFC, for the purposes of this exercise (though, I would say Houston is poised to be the team of that conference, as I expect Stroud to be much better/safer with the football this time around).

And, the funny thing is, the schedule-makers decided the same thing: that it’s going to boil down to the Rams and Seahawks. That’s why they’re the marquee game on Christmas Day. That’s why they’re set to go again two weeks later in Los Angeles in the final week of the regular season. If the NFL has any say in the matter, that final game of the regular season will be Seahawks at Rams for all the marbles on Sunday Night Football (with, ideally, both teams again matching up for a repeat NFC title game).

On paper, I find it hard to argue with that sentiment. These look like the two best teams once again. The Rams, infamously, loaded up on defense, filling every conceivable hole, including holes they didn’t even have, like defensive end! They look just as good on offense, with pretty much everyone coming back. And, they’re super motivated because they (irrationally) feel like the 2025 title was stolen from them. The Seahawks, by the same token, have largely run it back. There are a few missing pieces, but as they said in Office Space, I wouldn’t say I’m missing them, Bob. The most important people are still here, save our offensive coordinator, so we’ll see. I think it’s fair that the Rams are rated higher than the Seahawks in preseason power polls. I also think being slighted – as the Seahawks are – is the best spot to be in. They always say it’s tough to repeat as champions, because opposing teams are going to give you their very best effort. But, with all the hype surrounding the Rams, it almost feels like THEY won it all last year, and are deserving of the mysterious Very Best Effort of opponents.

As we all know, though, football seasons aren’t played on paper. Crazy, unexpected shit happens every season. Hell, the 2025 Seahawks were some crazy, unexpected shit! No one saw 14-3 coming! No one saw a flawless run through the playoffs by Sam Darnold! And yet, that’s what we got.

My whole thesis for this post resides in the fact that I just don’t believe things are this perfect. I don’t believe the NFL ever truly gets what they want in regards like this. I think they try! They like to manipulate the schedule to set the very best games in the first couple weeks and the last couple weeks of the season. But, by the time you get to the end, the season has rarely gone the way NFL schedule-makers expect. I tend to believe those Rams/Seahawks games – while they might be compelling individual exhibitions – aren’t going to have the kind of impact everyone is expecting. I kinda think the division will largely be decided by that point. And, I believe one of these two teams will be deemed “frauds” when it’s all said and done. Or, at least, one of these two teams will be clearly inferior, from a record standpoint.

I really want to believe it’s the Rams. I want to flag this Bill Barnwell article and point to how these super teams rarely follow through on their promise. I’d like to think the city of Los Angeles doesn’t just get to buy every fucking major championship because their owners are crazy and willing to spend billions of dollars. But, I fear that might be my Seahawks Homer getting the better of me.

Where does it go wrong for the Seahawks?

Well, obviously, any kind of extended Sam Darnold injury would strip us of any divisional title hopes and shunt us off to the realm of the last wild card spot. I wouldn’t say that’s a huge concern, but you never know. Maybe he bashes a thumb into a helmet while throwing; maybe he gets rolled up on and has a high ankle sprain for a month or so. It doesn’t take much to go from NFC Favorites to Finding Other Ways To Win. I like Drew Lock enough, but not so much that I think he can replace Sam Darnold.

The biggest worry has to be Brian Fleury. I don’t know what it’s going to take for this to not be my biggest worry, but a slow start for the offense in the regular season is REALLY going to be a buzzkill for me. My hope is that we have enough juice to win the opening night game, then we have a couple of soft landings on the road against Arizona and Washington. But, then we’re going to have to have things figured out after that, because there will be opponents going forward who can put up some serious points: Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, Chiefs, Bears. Three of those games are in primetime. If our offense is still sputtering through this stretch, again I think we’d be looking at a wild card spot.

One would hope the defense is still good enough to pick up the slack, but you know, we’ll see. I’m not going to sit here and be all doom and gloom about the defense; it’s still going to be a Top 5 unit barring significant injuries. But, will it repeat as #1? Or, is there some regression to be had?

Speaking of regression, I don’t think we have to worry a whole lot about one-score games. We were 6-3 last year in those scenarios; still good, but nothing outlandish. But, that means the rest of our games were (won) by two scores or more. Is 8 two-plus score games (all wins) something that can regress? Maybe. Maybe what was once a comfortable final margin last year, is now a close game this year. Maybe there are more scenarios where the offense needs to pull it out at the end, or the defense needs to make a critical stop.

So, there’s four major concerns: quarterback health, OC, a little bit of defensive regression, and general season-long team-wide regression. After that, throw in a smattering of injuries to various key players, and that’s kind of your top five.

Where does it go wrong for the Rams?

It also starts with Matthew Stafford, though I would argue it’s more serious here. It’s more serious because he’s 38 years old. It’s more serious because he’s notoriously had issues with his back for years now. And, while he’s a tough S.O.B., father time comes for us all. I would also argue that while they still would have McVay calling plays for the backups, the step down from Stafford to whoever is #2 is steeper than it is going from Darnold to Lock.

Injuries aside, Stafford was the clearcut MVP last year. Could he conceivably repeat? Sure, it’s possible. Aaron Rodgers did it back-to-back in his late 30’s. But, that feels like asking a lot. I know he has a cannon, I know he’s as smart as they come, but the older you get, the less you like getting hit. And that’s gonna HAVE to be a priority for defenses this year if you want to slow him down. As he has shown on occasion – even during his MVP season – Stafford has some games where he looks totally sunk (losses in the regular season to the Panthers and Falcons were pretty egregious). Will those games start to happen more and more? I think it’s fair to say Stafford isn’t going to be the 1 of 1 quarterback in the NFL this year, but it’s probably also fair to say he’ll be somewhere around the Top 5, assuming he stays healthy. So, I think that kind of washes with any fear of the Seahawks defense regressing.

There’s no real coaching staff questions for the Rams. There’s also no issue with one-score games (they were 4-5 last year). They had the same number of one-score games, and they were also 8-0 in two-plus score games.

For the Rams, sadly, I think it just comes down to injuries. It’s a lot more of a roll of the dice than some of the legitimate regression concerns with the Seahawks. But, here’s where things get interesting, because I would argue across the board the Rams are more of a top-heavy team than the Seahawks. So, when their stars get hurt, it means more. Remember when Albert Pujols came to the Angels and we all thought we were fucked as Mariners fans? He turned out to be just okay, then kinda mediocre for a lot of years. I don’t think it’s a 1 to 1 argument vis a vis Myles Garrett. But, I do think it’s fair to believe Garrett’s very best years are behind him. And, while he’s still in his prime, I would say he’s on the other side of his apex, and the next half-decade should be interesting to watch from afar.

Yes, if JSN goes down, the Seahawks will be hurting. But, what if Puka goes down? They have an aging Davante Adams and not much else; at least we have Kupp, Shaheed and some promising weapons elsewhere. Puka is a real wild card! Is this the year where his personal life problems bleed onto the field? He also plays a rugged version of wide receiver; is this the year that catches up to him?

It’s simple to say both the Seahawks and Rams had inordinate amount of injury luck in 2025, and that’s why they were the two best teams in football. But, I would argue given everything, the Rams were far luckier. We had extensive periods without Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love. We lost our hotshot rookie receiver halfway through the season and had to replace him in trade for Shaheed. We were banged up at linebacker, and missed a couple linemen early in the season (I believe that Bucs loss was due to injuries along the D-Line). We also had to break in a new OC last year, and growing pains definitely played a part in our Week 1 loss, as well as our inability to really get a running game going until the second half of the season.

Ultimately, my head says it’s the Seahawks who will regress. But, my heart wants to believe it’ll be the Rams. It would be ideal for everyone, if we’re being honest! Nobody wants a runaway monster to just lay waste to the NFL season. Nobody wants everything decided before the season has even begun. Guys like Aaron Donald shouldn’t just get to cherry pick when they decide they want to play based on their team finally getting good enough to put them over the top. If you’re gonna play football, then play fucking football – through the good times and the bad. Don’t fucking retire and sit around and then when things are just right decide to return. Be a man and stick it out, in sickness and in health, you God damned wishy-washy asshole!

The Seahawks Played A Preseason Game #1

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Look, I had some sort of stomach bug this weekend that stripped me of 7 pounds, presumably all coming from my stomach and intestinal lining, so I’ll be the first to admit that when this 5pm game rolled around, I was in bed, where I remained for the next 11 hours in a fitful night of sleep. So, sadly, I missed the entirety of the 17-7 loss to the Cowboys. My DVR only picked up the first half hour or so of the game – which turns out to probably be the only half hour worth watching – but I just deleted it on Sunday morning, without a care in the world.

Our lone scoring drive came on the first drive of the game, helmed by Drew Lock. I’m not gonna lie to you, before the game, I had the Cowboys and the points as my official prediction for this game. So that touchdown would’ve probably scared the bejesus out of me, if I had actual money on it!

Boy, I’ll tell ya, when I pictured this game in my mind – after seeing the score, and reading Hawkblogger’s report on it – I imagined a game with nothing going on. Just a lot of struggles and punts. But, the Seahawks really had a chance! Jason Myers missed an easy field goal in the first half, and the offense totally bungled a goal-to-go situation late in the game, by having Milroe try to throw it on 4th & 1 from the 1. Don’t get me wrong, nothing about this game screamed “watchability”. But, if you’re going to have a game like this, better to have it in the preseason, where you can correct some things.

I will say that I’m a little shocked that we didn’t get more from Drew Lock. I know that’s not everyone’s major takeaway, and I know he scored this team’s only TD, but in his three other drives, he had two 3 & Outs and a turnover on downs after 6 plays.

I’m also going to register some legitimate concerns about the play-calling. Again, I didn’t see the game, but what happened on that 4th down play with Lock? It was a pass to the running back for -4 yards; was that the call? Was that a checkdown gone awry? In the grand scheme of things, it didn’t matter, because we held on the play. Of course, this is the one fucking play they didn’t include on any highlight packages on YouTube, so I can’t be sure. But, it seems like such a play was a called swing pass … which just seems like a bad call. When everything has been close to the line of scrimmage, the defense is bound to be on their heels and ready to attack anything laterally.

And, I’ll be honest, I don’t know WHAT that was on 4th & goal from the 1. Shotgun? No play action whatsoever? Seems like the defense might bite on a fake dive/rollout.

I’m willing to believe that we’re saving our best plays for the regular season, and that these were some vanilla examples of things you likely wouldn’t see were the stakes higher. Maybe Brian Fleury brought out the big guns for that opening drive – just to show he could – and then packed it in for the rest of the game. If so, fantastic! But, if these issues linger into the regular season, I’m gonna have words.

As for the defense, what am I going to say about a unit playing zero starters? Yeah, you’re damn right Tyrice Knight kicked some ass, he was easily the best player on the field! Hopefully, this was a nice little reminder to the team that he deserves to be out there more.

I know there’s concern among Seahawks fans that this is a reflection of this team not having the kind of depth we hoped they’d have. But, nobody’s 90 deep; that’s insane. We played SO MANY guys you’re never going to hear about again, that it’s not even worth the brain cells. And – spoiler alert – with the Seahawks planning to scrimmage with Tennessee this week, we’re not likely to see anyone of note next week either.

I’ll end on this: it’s time for the rookies to start stepping it up. Price and Neal didn’t play at all (or, at least, didn’t show up on the stat sheets, but I believe both have been banged up), and Clark, Stephens, and Fuller didn’t make a tremendous impact. The takes on Clark in particular have been depressingly lukewarm, but maybe it’ll click in for him eventually. Regardless, this is the make-or-break time for rookies. And I can’t help but worry that we’re seeing any potential for this class to make an impact slip through our fingers.

The Seahawks Hired A New Offensive Coordinator

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Something tells me Brian Fleury won’t be promoted to somebody’s head coach after one season.

Being Super Bowl Champs comes with certain challenges: other teams want to copy your success. It’s a good problem to have, of course, because you’ve got that Lombardi Trophy in your back pocket. Would I trade a Super Bowl championship to get Klint Kubiak back? No way!

So, we’ve been spending the better part of this week looking for his replacement, and it sounds like Brian Fleury is the guy. Tight Ends Coach and Run Game Coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. It’s hard to get it up for a guy who’s never called offensive plays, coming over from a team that scored all of 26 points in three games against us in 2025.

I guess the idea is that we’re hiring a piece of Kyle Shanahan, who – against non-Mike Macdonald-coached teams – actually has a pretty good offensive scheme, that is also very similar to the one Kubiak runs. If they can’t beat you, join ’em? Did I get that saying right?

I guess I’m a little nervous about hiring someone with no previous play-calling experience; call it the Shane Waldron of it all. But, I mean, new offensive coordinators have to get their shot somewhere, right? They’re not ALL retreads!

The thing that concerns me is that there’s an obvious learning curve in the NFL, whether you’re drafted from college as a player, or going from being a coordinator to a head coach, or going from a position coach to coordinator. Now, we got lucky with Macdonald; he’s one of the good ones who’s been good from the jump. But, how long does it take a mortal man to make the jump to calling an offense? Is 2026 destined to be a lost year? Or can he pick it up on the fly and get this unit humming by season’s end? I’m guessing we’ll need to ride our defense to success once again, until the offense can start pulling its weight.

I found it very interesting that the Seahawks seemed destined to hire from within, in order to maintain offensive scheme continuity; we even went so far as to interview three or four of our own guys! Then this curveball came, and all of a sudden Fleury is the choice. What does that mean for the rest of the staff? Who’s going to jump ship to Vegas and join Kubiak? Who might stay, but be resentful that he didn’t get the job? Who will get a token promotion to be kept happy? A lotta ins, a lotta outs, a lotta whathaveyou’s.

What’s been encouraging are the moves the Seahawks have made on the defensive coaching staff this week. It looks like we officially retained Karl Scott, our Defensive Backs Coach/Pass Game Specialist, who appears to be destined for bigger things in the future. Aden Durde, of course, is back as our non-play calling DC; I understand it’ll only be a matter of time before he’s seriously considered for a head coaching job somewhere. And, in a move to maybe have a DC-in-waiting, we hired Zach Orr – the guy who took over for Macdonald in Baltimore, before they cleaned house this offseason – to be our Inside Linebackers Coach. That was, not for nothing, the job he had under Macdonald when he was DC in Baltimore. I mean, if the guy is good enough to be promoted to DC by a quality organization like that, he must be pretty good at his job! What a great get for Macdonald!

Here’s the deal, so much of 2025 was kind of a freak of nature, all the way down to our offense being so good, it got our OC hired to be a head coach in the NFL (after everyone killed us for hiring him in the first place). Considering DEFENSE is the backbone of this team, that feels … unnatural. I would expect – heading into 2026 – many of our defensive coaches to be on whatever is the opposite of a Hot Seat. They’re going to be pegged for future promotions. So, it’s good to see Macdonald doing what he can to bring in as much coaching talent as possible to back-fill.

Again, these are all good problems to have! McVay has to go through this every fucking year, and the Rams don’t really miss a beat, do they? So, I’m not going to be totally doom & gloom about all of this. But, I’m also not going to be super excited either. Fleury looks like he should be chainsmoking in a British pub while brooding over his favorite Futbol Club. He could be fine, he could be shit; we won’t know until the regular season games start.