Tag Archives: Cliff Avril

The Seahawks Signed Dre’Mont Jones & Jarran Reed

Posted on by
Reply

We have exciting news! I can’t remember the last time the Seahawks were involved with a major signing on the first day of free agency. Not for an outside player anyway. The Seahawks are an organization that likes to draft and develop, they’re an organization that likes to take care of their own guys. Other than that – and the occasional big splash trade – we usually buy low and test the waters on an older veteran, or a lesser name coming off his rookie contract.

It’s a smart way to do things, but it can also be infuriating. What happens to those teams who “win” free agency? They’re often coming from a real dark point; that’s why they have so much money to spend in the first place. And, you’re not getting the proper value out of guys on bigtime second or third contracts, compared to those on rookie deals especially, but also compared to past-their-prime veterans who might have a little something left in the tank. So, you don’t often see a lot of future success from those teams who “win” free agency. Once in a while, a team will get everything right, but that’s pretty rare. More often than not, if you’re not just as inept (remember that Philly “Dream Team” they compiled some years back), then you’re mortgaging the future like the Rams did. Which is great, they won a Super Bowl. But, now they’re set to be one of the worst teams in football, and that’s gotta be tough to swallow as a fan.

Conversely, as you can see, it’s not like the Seahawks’ way has paid dividends either. All too often, we’ve eschewed one impact signing in an attempt to scattershot a lot of minimum deals. Instead of signing one impact offensive linemen, we’d sign three mediocre duds. Instead of going for one impact pass rusher, we’d overpay defensive tackles (Poona, Mone) who can’t get to the quarterback, and then sign whoever else was left on the scrap heap (Quinton Jefferson, Al Woods).

Everyone likes to point to Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril as the last time the Seahawks got it right in free agency. That was EONS ago! The last outside free agent who actually made a positive impact was Uchenna Nwosu; before him, there was nobody.

Seemingly every year, we head into free agency with a decent amount of money to spend, and seemingly every year, we walk away shaking our heads at the moves the Seahawks have done.

Well, not this time! This time, we signed Dre’Mont Jones away from the Denver Broncos, for 3 years and $51 million. He gets a $20 million signing bonus, which puts his 2023 cap hit at around $10 million. Assuming he plays well, his 2024 cap hit is under $20 million. And if he’s a jackpot, we’ll probably extend him before 2025 comes into play.

6’3, 281 pound defensive tackle who has 22 sacks in his 4-year career, 18.5 over the last three seasons (no less than 5.5 per year). But, it’s obviously not just sacks that makes him one of the most sought-after defensive linemen in this free agency class. He can play all over the line, and he’s a menace against both the run and the pass. He’s basically everything we’ve been looking for since Clinton McDonald left, on the low end. On the high end, the sky’s the limit. I dunno, maybe Aaron Donald is the limit; he’s probably not Aaron Donald.

Nevertheless, he’s the best defensive tackle we’ve had in ages. Sam Adams maybe? Rocky Bernard? It goes back a ways. (I don’t count Michael Bennett here, though maybe I should; I always saw him as a defensive end who slid inside on passing downs to give us an extra outside rusher).

Not only is Dre’Mont one of the best and most impactful free agents, but he also fills a VERY huge need on this particular team. Shelby Harris and Quinton Jefferson were both released as cap casualties. Poona Ford is probably moving on (after not really fitting into the new 3-4 scheme), and Bryan Mone might be out with injury all year. So, as much as we all like Al Woods, there’s a lot of work left to do.

And just when I thought we might settle for some guy making the minimum, we bounced right back the next day and brought back Jarran Reed on a 2-year, $10.8 million deal. This isn’t just any old man off the streets. This is someone who has been remarkably healthy and available (other than a stint when he was suspended). He had a stretch with the Seahawks where there was real pass rush ability and potential (surpassing 10 sacks one year), but by and large he’ll give you a little bit of that, while also presenting a stout front in run defense.

What makes all of this truly thrilling is seeing what will come from the #5 overall pick. If Jalen Carter falls to us? And we get to play him, Reed, and Jones side by side by side? With Nwosu on one end and Darrell Taylor or Boye Mafe on the other? Or, we end up with Will Anderson as an end with those guys? We could really have something here!

I’m Sick & Tired Of The Seahawks Having A Mediocre Defensive Line

Posted on by
Reply

I never know what to make of seasons like this one. The Seahawks finished with 45 sacks in 2022, which puts them in the top quarter of the league. Indeed, we finished with one more sack than the San Francisco 49ers, who is the epitome of a defensive front seven that I desperately want for the Seahawks!

I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but this year had a very Feast Or Famine sort of feel to the Seahawks’ success on defense. It seems like we feasted on the dregs of society, but then we went totally in the tank in games we lost. Early on in the year, our failure was attributed to the scheme change, so we tweaked things where linemen could single-gap their opponents and be more aggressive in getting up field. That seemed to be the solution, until it wasn’t, and we once again couldn’t get to the quarterback.

As we all know, pass rush isn’t just Sacks. There’s a lot to it. When I look at the Seahawks, I don’t see a top quarter pass rush in the NFL, in spite of their sack totals. Not that sacks aren’t important, but you need to be generating consistent pressure on a regular basis if you want what the 49ers have.

And that comes down to talent. The fact of the matter is: the Seahawks haven’t had a difference-maker along the defensive line since Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. Which gets back to my biggest pet peeve: always comparing the new guys we bring in to Bennett & Avril. But, that’s going to continue to happen, because we keep drafting guys in later rounds, expecting them to magically transform into Pro Bowlers.

It’s my greatest frustration as a Seahawks fan. After that perfect storm of amazing moves from 2010-2012, we were on top of the world. But, from 2015 onward, all we did was make the playoffs, lose in the playoffs, and draft in the mid-20’s. You know what you can’t find in the mid-20’s? Or, at least, you know what the Seahawks have NEVER been able to find in the mid-20’s? A difference-maker along the defensive line.

There’s L.J. Collier. There’s Lawrence Jackson back in the day. There’s Lamar King going back a little further. And then there’s all those guys we’ve taken in the 2nd-6th rounds, who’ve been kind of speedy and undersized, who we hoped would develop into edge rushers and/or strong-side linebackers. Boye Mafe and Tyreke Smith last year, Darrell Taylor and Alton Robinson in 2020, Rasheem Green and Jacob Martin in 2018. We keep waiting for these guys to really pop, but there’s no consistency from game-to-game.

Sure, Darrell Taylor improved from 6.5 sacks in 2021 to 9.5 sacks in 2022, but where was he for the entire first half of this year? Where’s that consistency? Every time we point to a modicum of success these guys have as a possible jumping-off point for greater success, they come back the next year and underwhelm our increased expectations.

I just want a fucking stud, man. I want a fucking animal on the defensive line that cannot be stopped. I want an Aaron Donald, I want a Myles Garrett, I want a fucking Bosa! I’m tired of trying to cutesy-poo scheme our way to an improved pass rush; I just want a game-wrecker back there, mucking things up and opening up opportunities for everyone else.

Football isn’t as fun to watch if your team sucks on defense. And the way to get good on defense is to bolster that defensive line with legitimate stars, not undersized prospects we hope might one day blossom into some damn thing. Not slow and plodding ‘tweeners who get eaten up by even subpar offensive linemen. But, you can’t get there without drafting in the top 3-5. You can’t get there when you’re overpaying at nonsense positions like off-ball linebackers and safeties.

That’s why I’m going to be harping on the need for the Seahawks to use this 5th overall pick on a defensive lineman. Don’t trade it! Don’t use it for any other fucking position. Lineman. Figure it out. And stop paying for all these damn safeties and linebackers, so the next time a Frank Clark type is ready to hit free agency, you can hang onto your own, rather than going dumpster diving for other team’s bullshit like Jadeveon Clowney and Sheldon Richardson.

The Seahawks Drafted Some Non-Quarterbacks On Day Two

Posted on by
Reply

It’s really only noteworthy given the fact that by the time the Seahawks picked in the third round, all quarterbacks aside from Kenny Pickett were still available. So, the Seahawks passed over a bunch of mediocre dudes repeatedly through this draft, allowing me to breathe a HUGE sigh of relief.

Is it weird to feel such good vibes about this draft? I’m not saying it’s universally beloved or anything. Some people really wanted us to get Malik Willis. A lot of people REALLY hate the idea of using any draft capital above the fourth round on a running back. I’m sure if you really drill down, you’ll find people complaining about so-and-so being available at a particular spot that we passed over.

But, I gotta tell ya, based solely on who the Seahawks have added the last two days? You’d think we’re absolutely KILLING it!

Which I can’t help but take as a bad sign. I don’t know why. Maybe it’s because we’re not allowed to have nice things.

The more tidbits that roll in, the more I’m coming around on Cross. Some have even said he was the second LT on the board for the Seahawks, which might just be something the team wants leaked out there to boost their guy, but regardless it’s positive vibes out into the universe that I like at this point (having no idea how they look in minicamps and whatnot). But, as I noted yesterday, there’s nothing wrong with his athleticism; he has everything he needs to be a viable starter in this league. The team just needs to help him unlock it.

That goes for the guys we drafted last night as well. Athleticism seems to be a key theme, which I absolutely adore. We’re not just bringing in High Floor guys who we can plug in as depth; these are players with lots of room for growth, and lots of potential to be starters and even stars.

Now, the risk – as always – is that they just don’t have it. You can have all the athleticism in the world, but if you don’t have the skills or the want-to, then it won’t happen. Or, arguably worse: it happens, but not during the tenure of your rookie deal. The point of this whole thing – stripping down to the studs (so to speak) of the quarterback position, building up the roster elsewhere, and then nailing our QB of the future in next year’s draft – is to get guys who can help immediately. Guys who can legitimately get their feet wet as rookies, only to step into major starting roles in year two and beyond. This doesn’t work if it takes four years to coach these guys up.

If I’m worried about that for anyone among yesterday’s picks, it’s Boye Mafe, our edge player out of Minnesota. A LOT of Cliff Avril comps, which yeah, that’d be great! But, odds are … probably not. The broadcast seemed to believe he was a one-note type of rusher (I’m not even sure what that note was, I guess speed-rush around the edge?), hence why he fell to the second round. But, there have been lots of love on Twitter since he was drafted, which leads me to believe we might’ve gotten someone special to pair opposite of Darrell Taylor. The more the merrier, when it comes to quality pass rushers. I just hope we use him properly, and don’t spend most of our time dropping him into coverage (it didn’t sound like he had a lot of experience with that, nor was he very good at it).

The upside is a starting defensive end getting 10 sacks a year. The downside is probably a poor man’s Benson Mayowa.

If there was a Most Seahawky Pick heading into this draft, it was Kenneth Walker III, the running back out of Michigan State. Highly productive in college, speedy but also tough, breaks lots of tackles and gets lots of yards after initial contact, and obviously he’s also a running back. Not only a position of need (when you have to believe Chris Carson’s career is over, with that significant neck injury), but a position the Seahawks love to covet and value over most of the rest of the league.

There’s no doubt about it, though: the Seahawks do NOT have a great track record in drafting running backs. Easily our biggest “hit” was Chris Carson in the 7th round, but he’s spent every year in various states of injured. Our other good choices were guys who ended up being blocked and having better careers elsewhere (Alex Collins and Spencer Ware). Otherwise, we’ve only managed to find competent backups (Robert Turbin, Travis Homer, DeeJay Dallas), or out-and-out busts (Rashaad Penny until the last five-or-so weeks of last year, C.J. Prosise, Zac Brooks, Christine Michael).

How are the Seahawks at drafting running backs?

But, that doesn’t mean you stop trying. And, while I’m pretty adamantly against picking a running back anywhere in the first round – the Penny debacle saw to that – I think it’s okay when you have a need at the position, and you have multiple second round picks to play around with.

Great running backs are taken in the second round all the damn time! That’s generally where we’ve found our very best NFL running backs in recent years. Also, not for nothing, but I like seeing the Seahawks take the second running back off the board, as opposed to the first. There’s a lot of pressure on that first guy! Admittedly, I’ve been on the Breece Hall bandwagon ever since I read an article saying he was projected to be a great fantasy back. But, I have no qualms about the Seahawks taking Walker whatsoever. I feel like the only thing that could slow him down is injuries, but we couldn’t possibly have that bug hit us yet again, could we?!

I will say that I heard his pass protection isn’t great, nor are his hands catching footballs out of the backfield. The blocking thing can be taught; a lot of that is just effort and desire. But, the hands might be concerning, especially if the Seahawks do introduce more of the short passing game into the offense. We’ll see!

The upside is eventually taking the job from Rashaad Penny and being a 1,000 yard back for the next however many years. The downside is probably a rich man’s Christine Michael.

I know he’s listed as Abraham, but I prefer bringing him into my blog as Abe Lucas. Legit right tackle prospect (not a guy who played right tackle, but really projects to be a guard in the NFL, like so many we’ve brought in here before) out of Washington State, he looks like another athletic darling with immediate starting potential.

I’ll admit, I didn’t see the Seahawks going after two offensive tackles in this draft, especially not in the first three rounds. I gotta be honest, I was hoping to be the Smartest Guy In The Room here with my take that Jake Curhan would be our right tackle going forward. There’s still that chance, of course. Curhan has a year’s experience under his belt – including starts in real, live NFL games – but there’s a big difference between an undrafted prospect and a guy taken in the upper third round.

But, you know, the Seahawks will certainly play the best man for the job. If Curhan shows he’s got what it takes – and Lucas looks like a problematic rookie who might get beat – they’re not going to cater to a guy’s draft status. The thing I like is that we’re going young and we’re going home-grown at the position. Brandon Shell, and all the other retreads we brought in here during the majority of Russell Wilson’s tenure, were far from inspiring. When Breno Giacomini was easily the best RT we’ve had since the Mike Holmgren days, you know you’ve been floundering.

Also, not for nothing, but I was perfectly happy with what Curhan brought to the table last year. So, if that’s our floor, sign me up!

There is a tremendous amount of love for the Lucas pick though, which heartens me. Obviously, he comes from another Mike Leach-inspired offense full of non-stop passing, but there seems to be fewer questions about Lucas’ ability to run block. Again, when it comes to tackles – and really, the O-Line as a whole – I’ll gladly take guys with pass protection chops (who need to work on their run blocking skills) vs. the other way around.

The upside is the best right tackle we’ve ever had. The downside is Stone Forsythe.

Even though it’s not sexy, there’s a lot to like about this Seahawks draft so far. I would argue our drafts have been on a bit of an upswing in recent years, but this has the potential to be the best of the bunch. Not surprisingly, that’s what can happen when you’re a quality organization who FINALLY gets an opportunity to draft near the top of every round!

The Seahawks Signed Some More Guys & Lost Some More Guys

Posted on by
Reply

It’s time for my usual roundup of what the Seahawks did while I was in Reno. I’m still groggy as hell, but thankfully I was smart enough to take the day off of work. Anyway, I ran through a bunch of the minor comings and goings last week, so let’s get into the ones that happened while I was gone (I hope I don’t miss any).

Uchenna Nwosu: 2 years, $20 million

This might be the most important signing the Seahawks make this offseason. We’ll see. Pass rush is, was, and always will be the most pressing need for the Seahawks and it’s frankly ridiculous that we have to keep having this fucking conversation every God damn year because they haven’t figured their shit out after the heyday that was Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. Every fucking guy we bring in is compared to those two guys, because we’ve been 100% inept at replacing them. It’s getting old!

Nwosu is young, but also raw and full of potential. Which means he hasn’t done much yet in his four season in the NFL (with the Chargers), but he could be a late bloomer who peaks in the right defense with the right group of guys around him. He’s more of an edge player – who might also play some strong-side linebacker – but in what’s looking more and more like a 3-4 defense we’re installing, I would expect him to be one of our primary pass rush specialists.

Benson Mayowa, Kerry Hyder, & Carlos Dunlap: Released

That’s made all the more clear by these three moves that happened pretty close to one another. I’m surprised, and also I’m not. Mayowa did next-to-nothing last year, but he’s also earning next-to-nothing, so it seemed like he’d be a good candidate for training camp competition. Ditto Hyder. But, maybe we’re just looking to get younger across the board. That would seem to jibe with Dunlap’s release. He was set to earn a chunk of change, but he also seemingly earned it by the way he finished his 2021 season. I think his first half production was too damning though, as he did absolutely nothing for us in the early going.

I’m good with these moves. I like to go with veterans at the defensive end spot, but you can only keep them around as long as they’re consistently producing. These guys seem to be pretty close to out of the league.

Austin Blythe: 1 year, $4 million

Looks like probably our new starting center. He played with the Chiefs last year, but prior to that was with the Rams, so he seems to know our system (with both our O.C. and O-Line coach hailing from their organization). I’m kinda ready to move on from Ethan Pocic, so this is fine. Plus, he has extensive experience practicing against Aaron Donald, so that’s gotta be a plus, right?

Quinton Jefferson: 2 years, $9.5 million

This isn’t super thrilling, but it’s a further indication that we’re moving to more of a 3-4 defense. You want three bigger interior linemen, with a couple of off-ball pass rushers on either end. And, among those bigger interior linemen, ideally one or two of them would be somewhat effective at getting to the quarterback. That’s Jefferson to a T. He’s ranged from 3.0-4.5 sacks per season the last four years. And he plays the run well. I’m fine with it. It’s not flashy, but with Al Woods, Poona Ford, and Bryan Mone, I think we’ve really got something interesting at this group.

Kyle Fuller: 1 year, TBD

I don’t see any contract info on him, but considering the Seahawks non-tendered him, that means it must be pretty damn cheap. This is filler for the center and guard spots, nothing more.

Rashaad Penny: 1 year, $5.75 million

In maybe the biggest news of the long weekend, the Seahawks opted to keep Penny on a prove-it deal. This is fantastic. In my opinion, he hasn’t earned a multi-year extension. Not with his injury history. Not based on a hot final 5-6 games.

It’s those games that make this so tantalizing, though. Without Wilson, with a new O-Line coach, with another offseason from our offensive coordinator to install his scheme, we could be looking at a monster at running back, for a bargain of a price. And, if he flames out or gets injured, then it didn’t set us back financially.

Gerald Everett: Signed With The Chargers

Finally, the Chargers picked up a pretty good tight end to throw into their very good offense. We’ve got Dissly, Fant, and Parkinson, so we didn’t need to sign Everett. Not at $6+ million per year. He was solid, but also suffered from drops and fumbles, and was also kind of a head case with stupid penalites. I don’t think I’m gonna miss him.

The Seahawks Lost A Potential Back-Breaker To The Steelers In Overtime

Posted on by
Reply

Admittedly, I didn’t have a ton of interest in this Sunday night game. Geno Smith? I dunno. I more or less expected the first half that we got, only for the entire game. I didn’t have access to the television for this one, so I sort of checked in every so often on my phone to get scoring updates, and it looked grim!

The defense did what it was supposed to – keep the game close early – but continuous terrible offense by the Seahawks wasn’t going to make that possible for long. The Seahawks punted on 5 out of 6 possessions in the first half, with the sixth concluding at the end of half after a kneel down. At that point, it was 14-0 Steelers, and I stopped checking for scoring updates after that.

I got home around 8:30pm or so, expecting the game to be over. Or, if not, then wildly out of hand with the Seahawks still losing by double-digits. I was shocked to find the game was tied with two minutes to go in the game!

It turns out the Seahawks were finally able to get the running game going. Why they weren’t able to do this in the first half – or that it wasn’t more of a priority in the first half – I have no idea. But, Alex Collins was a beast until he got hurt! The Seahawks turned their first two second-half drives into touchdowns; they sandwiched a Steelers field goal drive to make it 17-14 heading into the fourth quarter.

Things slowed down considerably from there, but the Seahawks tied it at 17 before possession exchanged hands a few times.

The play of the game – which I made it home in time to see – was an egregious dropped interception that hit Jamal Adams right in the face. Is he EVER going to catch an interception with the Seahawks? It sure as shit doesn’t seem like it! Considering we ended up giving up the go-ahead field goal on that drive – and considering we would go on to hit the game-tying field goal as regulation expired – it feels like that Adams missed pick really could’ve handed us the game if he made the play.

The Seahawks won the toss in overtime – thanks to a brilliant “tails” call by Russell Wilson – and we ended up moving the ball to their side of the 50 yard line before giving up a massive third down sack to T.J. Watt. But, to our defense’s credit, we held them to a 3 & Out, thanks to a brilliant piece of open-field tackling by rookie corner Tre Brown. That gave us the ball back at our own 15 yard line.

Geno Smith took the snap out of shotgun, made a move that he was going to throw a deep ball, then pulled it back down and started to run forward. We had T.J. Watt quadruple-teamed, but as Geno slid forward in the pocket, Watt ran back to him and easily punched the ball out of his hands. First play of our final drive: Geno Smith turnover; where have I seen that before? (Well, actually, it was our next to last drive …)

The Steelers were already in field goal range, so they centered the ball and easily nailed the game-winning field goal to make it 23-20.

That’s a collosal bummer. I guess good on the Seahawks for making it a game in the second half, but I don’t know if we can expect much more than this out of Geno Smith. Then again, I don’t know if we could’ve expected much more from Russell Wilson either. I only witnessed a few game minutes, but T.J. Watt surely would’ve had little trouble pounding Wilson into mincemeat just as he did Geno. It’s likely Wilson could’ve taken better advantage of a weak Steelers secondary, but it’s also possible he would’ve thrown the ball into heavy coverage, because he believes so hard that he’s going to do magical things all the time.

This felt like a bad matchup for the Seahawks from the moment their defense revealed themselves to be soft as fluff. We managed to sack the Ben Roethlisberger statue one time for three yards. In a game where he made 40 attempts, what the fuck are we even doing? THIS is the response our defense makes when it’s determined we need them to go out and win us a ballgame?!

And, what’s worse, Darrell Taylor had to be carted off the field and taken to a hospital with a neck/cervical spine injury. He was able to move his extremities and fly home with the team, but this has the feel of a Cliff Avril/Kam Chancellor thing where if it’s not career-ending, then it’s probably season-ending (with a high likelihood that it’s career-shortening). Our lone defensive bright spot, and one of the few guys period on this team who’s shown a knack for getting to the quarterback, and he’s probably gone forever. Great.

Tre Brown is a nice story, but one competent game from one maybe-competent cornerback isn’t going to salvage this season or this defense. Not with the albatross that is the Jamal Adams contract destroying everything in its path. How did this get SO fucked up?! How is he not a slam-dunk sure thing?! How do we keep getting these moves SO FUCKING WRONG?!

It’s not just a season-killer, but a franchise-killer. This is going to have repercussions we’re not going to recover from for years to come. Fucking up all these first rounds in the draft has come home to roost, and it’s going to be lean times for quite a while.

The 2021 Seattle Seahawks Regular Season Preview Extraordinaire!

Posted on by
Reply

If you feel like reading about my position-by-position breakdowns, click HERE and go through all the links at the top. And, in case you missed it, I talked briefly about my predictions for how the 2021 NFL season is going to go as a whole HERE. There’s a pretty significant spoiler in there about my feelings on the Seahawks, which I’m going to get to directly.

I think the 2021 Seattle Seahawks are going to be disappointing. That’s not a very unique hill to die on. If you’re a playoff contender, only one team’s season WON’T be disappointing. But, I guess that’s my point: the 2021 Seattle Seahawks aren’t going to win the Super Bowl. For a team with Russell Wilson as its quarterback, for a team that has been to two Super Bowls in the last decade – and been to the playoffs in all but one year dating back to 2012 – not winning the Super Bowl is always going to be disappointing. Seasons change and we’re all getting fucking older, and it’s reasonable to wonder if we’re all going to die without the Seahawks ever winning a Super Bowl again.

In skimming last year’s preview post, I think my feelings about the team are similar, but for slightly different reasons. I was probably a little higher on the offense than I am this season, and for the first half that was validated by what we saw on the field. Then, the level of our defensive competition improved, and we were unable to adjust to what they were doing to us. On the flipside, there were lots of worries about the defense heading into the season – also validated by what we saw on the field – but that tightened up in the second half (as the level of offensive competition declined, and we were able to adjust to what teams were doing to us). Ultimately, we were looking at a fatally flawed team in 2020, and we’re still looking at a fatally flawed team in 2021.

There’s a lot to like about the offense once again. The talent is on par with the most talented offensive teams in the NFL. We have a Top 5 quarterback, we have arguably the best wide receiver duo, we have a stable of quality running backs and tight ends (when healthy), and our offensive line is good enough (especially with Duane Brown back in the fold). I only have one concern about the offense, but it’s a big one: Shane Waldron.

He’s never called plays before. He’s never been in charge of setting up an offense or scheming against an opposing defense. I don’t know what it was, exactly, he did with the Rams, but he wasn’t The Guy. The buck didn’t stop with Shane Waldron. We ASSUME – since he worked under offensive genius Sean McVay – that we’re going to get “The Rams’ offense” with our Seahawks talent executing it. And, we ASSUME – because the Rams’ offense has always been so great for them since McVay was brought over there – that it’s going to translate seamlessly to our team. But, we don’t know if it’s going to work out at all!

There’s a chance the offense is more efficient, and we’re able to connect on the short passing game, which in turn will open up the deep passing game again, which in turn will also open up our rushing attack. But, I would argue there’s an equally-good chance (if not a better chance) that the offense is even less efficient than it was before, and we’re reduced to an embarrassing shambles with a guy who doesn’t know how to call plays or adjust in-game to what defenses are throwing at us.

Frankly, I’m leaning towards the offense being a frustrating mess more often than not. What’s more likely? Some first-time offensive coordinator – who no one’s ever heard of outside of hardcore football circles – comes in and takes the play-calling world by storm? Or, like the 8th coordinator poached from the Rams under Sean McVay goes to another team and sucks like all the rest?

Why is no one talking about this? Why isn’t this a bigger story? Everyone’s just taking for granted that the Seahawks are going to look exactly like the Rams offensively; it makes no sense. We’ve got a quarterback who can’t shit until he holds out for the long bomb – taking umpteen sacks in the process by holding the ball too long; we’ve got a head coach who wants to run the ball more than anyone else in the league; and we’ve got an offensive line that still has to face the front sevens of the rest of the NFC West six times a year (plus playoffs), on top of many other difficult D-Lines around the league. This is a recipe for utter disaster!

Honestly, I really question whether or not Brian Schottenheimer was the main problem last year. You’re telling me he doesn’t have a short or intermediate passing game in his playbook? You’re telling me HE was the reason this team never called screen passes or crossing patterns? Or, is it because the quarterback always wants to throw the home run ball, and he can’t see over all the linemen in his way to hit his receivers 10 yards downfield? Come on, let’s think about this rationally here.

I expect this offense to struggle mightily through the first month or two, until this team goes back to calling the same plays it’s called over the last decade. At which point we MIGHT see marginal improvement, but by that time we’ll have already lost too many games to get the top seed in the NFC, and it’ll be iffy at best if we can even compete for the divisional title.

While we’re on the topic, let’s get to probably the biggest reason why the 2021 Seahawks will be disappointing: the NFC West.

They’re all better. I’m just going to say that right off the bat. The 49ers are healthy again; they figure to have enough talent to contend for a playoff spot (and maybe even the division). The Cardinals were 8-8 last year and their quarterback was playing injured for most of the second half of the season. The Rams won 10 games, beat the Seahawks in Seattle in the first round of the playoffs, and VASTLY upgraded at quarterback with Stafford over Goff. I fully expect the Rams – still stacked at virtually every single position group – to not only win the NFC West, but have the best record in the entire conference. This isn’t just reverse-jinx posturing; I’m staking my fantasy football life on it (going all in on Stafford and the Rams’ defense, earlier than probably most any other non-Rams fan in existence).

It’s almost an impossible ask to expect the Seahawks to win this division in back-to-back seasons! Especially since you can’t really point to any one thing the Seahawks do as definitely exceptional. The Rams have a great offense and the best defensive player alive. The 49ers have a great offensive scheme (if maybe lacking in talent at the quarterback position) and a stacked front seven on defense. The Cardinals have one of the best mobile quarterbacks in the league, who almost always keeps them in ballgames with a chance to win it at the end.

The Seahawks have … a less-mobile Russell Wilson, in a new offense. They have maybe the best receiver in the game in D.K. Metcalf … who was largely neutralized in the second half of last season thanks to countless double teams and defenses (or just Jalen Ramsey) blanketing his side of the field. The only certainty is that the Seahawks have the best Safety Who Gets Sacks in football. Okay. Who was the last team that featured a sacking safety that won the Super Bowl? Go ahead, I’ll wait.

At the same time, though, I can’t say it’s all Doom & Gloom either. Because, as I said up top, this team IS talented, pretty much throughout. There’s enough talent on offense that I fully expect – in 2-minute situations, when Wilson is calling the plays in hurry-up – points will be scored. My argument is: it’s not going to be as seamless as everyone is expecting; it’s going to be a struggle sometimes. The Seahawks aren’t going to lead the league in points; they’re not even going to be in the Top 5. Talent alone will probably keep us in the Top 10, but I don’t think that’s going to be good enough to push us over the hump into the upper stratosphere.

Sure, there’s also talent on defense. I think the starting linebacker unit is solid, the defensive line should be at least on par with what we saw in the second half of 2020, and I have zero issues with the safeties. But, the cornerbacks are an obvious weakness, and there’s still the Ken Norton in the room. He’s a terrible defensive coordinator! He might’ve been okay when there were Hall of Famers throughout this side of the ball, but literally anyone could’ve coordinated those defenses and had a top DVOA unit. This is a group with a lot of young guys in prominent roles, a lot of fringe-starters getting full-time snaps, who desperately need to be coached up, and Ken Norton is completely incapable of doing that outside of the linebacker room. He should be a linebackers coach; that’s where his ceiling is from a coaching perspective. But, he’s in charge of the entire defense, and that’s where this team gets fucked.

The defense hasn’t been the same since Dan Quinn left for Atlanta. I’d feel a lot better about things if we’d brought him back this year, instead of letting Dallas take him in.

So, you know, expect a lot of frustrating defensive series. Expect teams to continue to dink and dunk on us at will, at times, in every single game. Expect a good amount of chunk plays to go against us because our cornerbacks are crappy and our safeties can’t be everywhere at once. Then, expect us to adjust and slow teams down for a while in the second or third quarters of games, before they finally figure out how to move it again midway through the fourth quarter.

In short, expect the Seahawks defense you’ve come to know and loathe since Dan Quinn left. Along with it, expect the usual Cardiac Seahawks games where they’re maddeningly close until the bitter end, with the final possession deciding the game’s outcome. You like one-score games? I hope so, because the Seahawks enjoy nothing more than playing the same fucking Greatest Hits for us every single week.

I haven’t done this in a while, so let’s go game-by-game and see if we can predict wins and losses. This is fun for about 30 seconds, right?

  • @ Indy – Win
  • Tenn – Win
  • @ Minn – Win
  • @ Frisco – Loss
  • Rams – Loss
  • @ Pitt – Loss
  • Saints – Win
  • Jags – Win
  • BYE
  • @ Pack – Loss
  • Zona – Loss
  • @ Wash – Win
  • Frisco – Win
  • @ Hou – Win
  • @ Rams – Loss
  • Bears – Win
  • Lions – Win
  • @ Zona – Win

I have us at 11-6 in this scenario. It might not shake out EXACTLY in this fashion, but I think 5-3 heading into the BYE is probably reasonable. I think 2-4 against the division is probably the difference-maker between us or the 49ers getting the higher wild card seed (I think we probably end up with the same record, but they figure out a way to sweep the Cards and get one over on the Rams).

I’d love nothing more than to be wrong. There’s a small part of me that wants to believe the Seahawks have been on this upward trajectory since 2017 (the last time we missed the playoffs). We were 9-7 that year, and have improved by one win every season since, with us finally winning the division again in 2020. The next step in that progression is to not only win the division, but take the top seed in the NFC again. And, with that – ideally – a spot in the Super Bowl.

But, usually, teams who do that are able to get that one final piece to the puzzle in the lead-up to that season. In 2013, for instance, we went out and got Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. The Bucs last year got Tom Brady and loaded up on veterans on defense. When was the last team you saw that was THIS flawed that somehow managed to improve? Almost always – when a team is this flawed – there’s negative regression the other way.

Frankly, the Seahawks have been flawed every season since 2017; things can’t keep improving forever.

This feels like a total meltdown waiting to happen. We were already teetering on the brink this offseason with Russell Wilson complaining in the media. I’m half-expecting everything to totally fall apart, with the final nail being a Wilson trade out of here. And knowing our Seattle luck with trading superstars, he will hamstring us with the list of teams we’re allowed to trade him to, resulting in our getting a terrible package of picks and players in return.

Officially, I’m predicting the Seahawks will be 11-6 and the 6th seed in the NFC. But, secretly I wouldn’t be shocked to see us fall to 8-9, miss out on the playoffs, and have all hell break loose.

Earlier this week I called out the Ravens as the team having a Season From Hell. But, don’t be surprised if it’s us. Again, I hope I’m wrong, but I feel it in my gut: the future looks grim.

Seahawks Position Breakdown 2021: Defensive Line

Posted on by
Reply

Well, I waited as long as I could possibly wait before getting to the defensive line. I even rearranged my whole posting schedule for the last month to give the team time to make any more moves they were going to make to the D-Line before the regular season started (this post was supposed to happen almost two weeks ago!). I guess we’re keeping Geno Atkins on ice until we get past the first game?

I mean, it makes sense. The defensive line has largely been set since earlier this offseason, when we waived Jarran Reed and re-signed Carlos Dunlap. It’s actually one of the great strengths of this team, at least on paper! Meanwhile, the Seahawks continue to tinker with the cornerback spot until – who is Bless Austin, you ask? I have no idea – we’re all left wondering what the hell is going on. Oh well, better luck for my posting schedule next year!

I’m a big fan of what the Seahawks have going at defensive line. I was really happy with the group in the second half of last year, and that starts with Carlos Dunlap. Oh sure, he’s going into his 12th season, but he’s just a solid, steady dude who gets regular pressure on the quarterback and is able to convert enough of that pressure into sacks.

Dunlap leads a pretty impressive DE group that gets production all the way down to the last man. Benson Mayowa returns; he has 13 sacks over the last two years. As a part-time pass-rush specialist, he’s nails.

Alton Robinson and Darrell Taylor are sort of hybrid DEs and SAM linebackers who we’re all excited about. I’m loathe to expect too much of a jump from year one to year two (especially with someone like Taylor, who didn’t even play last year), but we saw Robinson’s baseline last year and 4.0 sacks as a rookie is nothing to sneeze at. If he runs it back, fine. If he does slightly better, great!

The newcomer is Kerry Hyder, who has racked up two seasons of 8+ sacks in his 5-year career. I don’t know his full story, but by all accounts he’s a hard worker and is someone who will fit into our scheme really well.

Then, there are the low men on the totem pole, Rasheem Green and L.J. Collier. Granted, both have been varying degrees of disappointing, but even they bring SOMETHING to the table. I know we all expected more out of Green, who left college early; we kept hearing about how he needed to grow into his body or whatever. Well, it’s been three years and he has a total of 7.0 sacks to show for it. Heading into the last year of his rookie deal, it’s really a make-or-break season for him. He did play pretty exceptionally during the pre-season; I honestly don’t remember him ever showing out like that before. So, maybe things are starting to click; or maybe he’s finally grown into that body. I guess we’ll see.

It was interesting to hear how many people on Twitter were speculating about the Seahawks possibly trading away or cutting L.J. Collier during and after the final roster cut-downs. I mean, I can see why they said those things; he didn’t have a particularly great pre-season. You never hear stories about him in practice or training camp. His rookie year was largely a bust and his 2020 season was improved, but no one’s writing home to mom about 3.0 sacks. I don’t have a lot of positive things to say, other than he’s another guy to throw onto the pile. He did show flashes of making an impact at times last year, and ideally I think that’s all you need. Collier isn’t a starter for this team. He’s in the rotation. He can slide inside to play defensive tackle (as well as Green and Hyder, for that matter), and ultimately I think the team likes him. I also think his value is so low that you’d essentially be throwing him away for nothing. He was a first round pick and he’s probably currently worth a 6th round pick in return. For an able body you can plug and play, that’s not a trade I’m looking to make, especially when there’s at least SOME upside, if you squint your eyes and focus real hard.

My favorite guys on the team are always the defensive tackles, and I think the Seahawks have some good ones!

Poona Ford is our anchor here, with Jarran Reed being waived and signing with the Chiefs. That’s a scary proposition for some Seahawks fans, considering Reed has a semi-proven track record of making an impact in the pass-rush game from the interior; Poona has 2.5 career sacks across three season. But, the Seahawks gave him a raise this offseason for a reason: I think they see great things ahead for this erstwhile undrafted free agent. I do too! He’s got remarkable quickness that I think will translate to running into some more sacks and tackles for loss now that he’s the main guy in the middle.

Al Woods is just a huge plug in the middle of that line. He’s another aging veteran, going into his 11th season, but it doesn’t look like he’s lost anything. As long as he’s healthy, he should provide the run-stuffing we need, at a great value, I might add.

Finally, Bryan Mone rounds out the trio. He’s another undrafted free agent who is providing a lot of value and depth in the middle. He’s heading into his third year and is just an all-around pro already.

So, I can see why Geno Atkins is a target for this team, I just don’t know who you cut to pick him up. All of these guys will contribute, and at Geno’s age it’s fair to wonder what he has left in the tank.

As I’ve noted before, there’s a lot of excitement from the fanbase surrounding the pass rush on this team. This does appear to be as deep as we were in 2013. But, I think you have to take that with the caveat that there isn’t quite the top-tier talent in this group that there was in our Super Bowl-winning year. No one is holding a candle to Michael Bennett or Cliff Avril in their heydays.

I guess I’m happy with this unit, but I’m also a little anxious too. There’s a lot riding on these guys, especially with how poor the cornerback group looks. When you look at the defense as a whole, we’re counting on a lot of production from a lot of unproven guys. So, at least in the early going, it would be nice to see a big impact from the likes of Dunlap, Mayowa, Hyder, and the other studs on this defense.

I’m giving the defensive line a solid B+, with an opportunity to get into the A range if they manage to generate sacks into the 40’s this year. I’m less worried about the run defense, but obviously that needs to be a point of focus, because if teams are in a lot of 3rd & Shorts, they’re definitely going to convert a high percentage of them thanks to this weak secondary.

Seahawks Position Breakdown 2021: Linebackers

Posted on by
Reply

You hear a good amount of comparisons to the 2012-2014 Seahawks defenses around these parts. When things are looking bad, people lament the good old days. When we get a new member of the secondary, people instinctively compare them to the Hall of Famers of that era. And, when the defense as a whole looks good, people like to say, “This is the best Seahawks defense since 2013!” In fact, people are saying that about the depth along the defensive line – particularly from a pass rush standpoint – right this very season!

You know what those 2012-2014 Seahawks had that we might also have again in 2021? Some elite-level linebackers that are criminally overlooked.

What did we talk about in 2013? We talked first about the L.O.B. Of course. Two of the best safeties in the game, probably the best cornerback alive at the time, and whoever else was on the other side keeping up his end of the bargain. Next, we talked about the NASCAR pass rush, led by the likes of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, but continuing on down to the last DL on the roster, as everyone contributed! But, who was overlooked? The dynamic duo of Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, in their second and third seasons, respectively.

Well, Bobby Wagner is still here, and he’s no young pup anymore, but he’s still playing at a high level. Maybe not the same level he was in his prime, but the dropoff hasn’t been too severe. Unfortunately, there’s no room at the inn for K.J. Wright, as he just signed with the Raiders. In his place, we have first round draft pick Jordyn Brooks, who looked good as a rookie, got a lot of playing time towards the end of the season, and appears to have taken the next step in – this – his second season.

Jordyn Brooks is exciting! He’s fast and instinctive and looks like the real deal. He might be the best linebacker in his draft class (who isn’t exclusively a pass rusher). I’m thrilled the Seahawks gave him the starting job – even though it sucks to see K.J. Wright go, because he was still playing at a high level and it’s criminal he was unemployed for as long as he was – and I can’t wait to see what he does.

Then, there’s Darrell Taylor, getting a shot to be this team’s SAM linebacker. I don’t know if he’s the best man for the job right now (again, when K.J. Wright was still just sitting there for the entire offseason, having exceeded expectations at SAM last year), but he very well could develop into a force for this defense. At the very least, it’s easy to see from the pre-season games alone why the Seahawks have been so high on him. His build and athleticism appear to be off the charts; when he gets his first sack in a Seahawks uniform, the Pacific Northwest might explode.

There’s no doubt about it, though, the linebacker depth took a hit. Losing BBK costs us not only a valuable special teams ace, but also a cheap veteran who’s been in the system since his rookie year and could’ve very capably filled in for injuries, should they have come up (which they always do).

Cody Barton, however, has ascended into a fringe-level starter who we have the luxury of being our backup at every linebacker spot. He, as with BBK, has been in the system since his rookie season, and he’s always been a step or two ahead of BBK the entire way. This pre-season, he looked like he was playing a different game than the rest of the backups around him, making plays all over the field. This bodes well if we have ONE injury in our starting linebacker corps. But, if we have TWO or more injuries, I don’t know if I trust anyone behind him at this point.

Nick Bellore is our hybrid fullback/linebacker, and he looked okay. But, I don’t think you want him starting an extended number of games for you. If he has to go in for a few plays here and there, he’d probably be fine. But, I think his lack of athleticism would get exposed the more teams can game-plan against him. If BBK were still here, I wouldn’t mind Bellore as a sixth guy. But, as the fifth guy? That’s a little scary.

I’ve also heard reports of Alton Robinson getting some snaps at SAM linebacker. Both he and Taylor seem better suited to strictly being the defensive end, but you can only have so many DE’s on the field at one time, and SAM is a way to fudge that a little bit. Sometimes SAM linebackers rush the passer, but usually more often they have to go out in patterns and cover running backs or maybe even tight ends. Nothing I’ve seen leads me to believe Robinson or Taylor are going to be as good as Bruce Irvin was in the role. But, we’ll see! Both are young and athletic enough, maybe they can grow into the position!

If healthy, I think the linebackers are an A-, with the potential to elevate to an A grade if Taylor really explodes onto the scene. This group probably falls to a B- or so if there are any injuries to Wagner or Brooks. Further injuries, obviously, plummet the grade even deeper. Mostly, my feeling on the linebackers is that I don’t have to worry about them too much. Packaged with the defensive line (which I’ll write about next week), I think this front seven will be among the greatest in the NFL. That’s all I can really ask for.

I Would Like The Seahawks To Re-Sign Carlos Dunlap Please

Posted on by
Reply

Carlos Dunlap was set to have over a $14 million cap hit against the Seahawks in 2021, including over $3 million in a roster bonus due at some point this month. As a result of that, the fact that the NFL’s overall salary cap is going down this year, and the fact that the Seahawks didn’t have a ton of extra cap space laying around anyway, Carlos Dunlap was cut today.

It sucks, but it makes sense. This was apparently the agreement all along – after the Seahawks traded for him last year, and talked him into taking a reduced salary in the short term – so he would get a chance to test the free agent waters as a 32 year old. After all, this might be his last chance to really cash in on an open market.

I know it can be tricky when it comes to giving a lot of money to aging veterans in the NFL. I know, in fact, that the Seahawks have had recent landmines they’ve stepped on in the form of Cliff Avril and Kam Chancellor (among others), who weren’t even as old as Dunlap is right now! You just never know when someone is going to suffer a career-ending injury (but, you DO know that the likelihood tends to increase with age). That’s why the smart money is NOT extending or signing guys on third or fourth contracts, unless they’re “prove-it” type deals that can be team friendly if they fail to live up to pre-signing hopes. But, in this case, I don’t care: I want the Seahawks to re-sign Carlos Dunlap. Even if it’s a three or four year deal, whatever (mostly because most of the money on those deals are only guaranteed for the first two years anyway).

Sometimes you have to take a chance. The Bucs took a chance at signing a lot of older defensive linemen, and look at what happened this past season! Defensive linemen tend to age a lot better than various other position groups. They’re not relied upon for speed so much as power, and power tends to stay with you the longer you’ve had it. Speed, on the other hand, declines much more rapidly, which is why you don’t see a lot of elderly safeties or linebackers.

Carlos Dunlap was FAR AND AWAY the best pass rushing defensive lineman for the Seahawks last year. There’s an obvious reason why Jamal Adams – a safety – led the team in sacks. Yes, part of that is because he is especially-great. But, while 9.5 sacks is MOST impressive for a person in your secondary, it’s not all that special compared to what linemen are supposed to get. Your best pass rusher SHOULD have double-digit sacks. And, I have no doubt that if Dunlap had been with Seattle for the entire season, he easily would have eclipsed that mark.

While I would have preferred not subjecting ourselves to this kind of risk – of letting Dunlap peddle his wares elsewhere, with a good likelihood of not being able to match other offers – it also does make sense to see where the market for him really is. The Bengals didn’t think very highly of him, and they definitely could have used someone of his talent and experience in their current rebuild! But, they are also notoriously cheap, so it would make sense that they’d cut and run a year or two early.

My educated guess is that Dunlap is looking to play for a winner (because he’s stated as much). My hunch is: most good teams will see what he was still able to accomplish last year and be on board with signing him. I would like to believe that the Seahawks have a leg-up, of sorts, because he knows our system, our coaching staff, and experienced at least a little bit of winning (even though the playoff exit was a bitter pill to swallow). That being said, the Seahawks are still based in and around Seattle, where almost no one in sports wants to spend their time. So, I couldn’t even say with any amount of certainty that the Seahawks – if they did just match another team’s offer – would have the tiebreaking edge. Most likely, we’d have to take that deal and improve upon it somewhat; to make him an offer he couldn’t refuse (in the non-lethal sense, of course).

That sounds grim. That sounds like there’s a less-than 50% chance of him returning. But, there is some good news. Like, for instance, he did have some nagging injuries last year that limited his playing time. A foot injury, if I’m not mistaken, and those are NEVER good. They nag, they linger, and they progressively worsen the more you’re on your feet; football players NEED to be on their feet to be effective. It’s right there in the name! So, that might downgrade his value to the rest of the league. As will, of course, the state of the NFL’s salary cap; the Seahawks aren’t the only ones who need to cut costs to make ends meet. As will the fact that those other cuts are also likely to be quality players too! There are going to be TONS of viable options out there on the free agent market; I wouldn’t say Carlos Dunlap is the best of the best. He might have to wait it out a little bit before finding a deal that’s to his liking. The longer he has to wait, the better our chances are to swoop in and steal him at the last minute.

This isn’t a be-all, end-all thing. This isn’t like re-signing Russell Wilson in his prime. But, I think Carlos Dunlap is VERY important to Seattle’s chances in 2021 and 2022. I do NOT believe in the younger guys behind him, at all! So, if we can’t bring Dunlap back, we sure as shit better figure out a way to get someone comparable to his talent level in here. Because this defense needs HELP!

And, quite frankly, it would be nice to not have to have this exact concern heading into each and every fucking season from now until the end of time.

Seahawks Death Week: Guys To Cut Or Let Walk

Posted on by
Reply

I’ve ranted and raved (mostly just ranted, while offending poor Shrimpy), and I’ve talked about why the Seahawks are not likely to be blown up (but probably should be). Now, let’s get down to brass tacks and talk specific guys I never want to see again in a Seahawks uniform (unless it’s as a civilian raising the 12th Man Flag one day).

So, here’s the deal: the 2021 NFL salary cap is projected to be approximately $176 million. The 2020 cap was an all-time high of approximately $198 million. It had been going up – since 2013 – $10 million to $12 million per year, with no end in sight given how profitable the league is in the United States and increasingly around the world. It’s the top-rated program on television, generating tons of ad revenue, which makes the rights deals with networks astronomical, and all teams share in the profits (making the NFL, essentially, a socialist entity, and a large percentage of its fans supporters of socialism in a way; but that’s neither here nor there). However, given the pandemic (and the lack of fans allowed to attend games in person), a serious chunk of revenue was lost for the 2020 season (and possibly part of the 2021 season, depending on how the vaccine rollout goes). As such, every team lost approximately $22 million dollars to spend on players.

This hurts a team like the Seahawks more than most. Ever since, probably, 2015 or so, the Seahawks have been up against the salary cap limit every single year. NFL teams can roll over any unspent cap money into the following year; we haven’t been able to do that, since we’re paying our existing players (and a small number of former players) all of that money. With our superstar players – Russell Wilson, obviously, at the top – accounting for such a high percentage of our salary cap, the Seahawks have had to make due by filling out the bottom two thirds of our roster with rookies and veterans making the minimum.

At the time of this writing, the Seahawks’ salary cap figure for 2021 already sits at approximately $162 million of our projected $176 million. That accounts for 35 players under contract, when we have to fill out a regular season roster of 53 players, plus a practice squad (somewhere between 10-16 players, depending on what the league decides in the offseason), plus money left over for replacement players making the league minimum when our regular roster guys hit the Injured Reserve.

Clearly, moves will need to be made. Players will need to be cut. And, 2020 guys whose contracts have expired will be thanked for their services and allowed to sign elsewhere. The following are the guys I hope – as I said before – to never see again on a playing field with the Seattle Seahawks.

I don’t have a lot of cuts. Really, it’s probably just one guy: Bobby Wagner. So, let’s start there.

Wagner is set to count over $17 million against our cap in 2021. He also just earned his sixth First Team All Pro honor. So, why would you cut a guy playing at such a high level? Well, I would argue the eye test says he’s on the downside of his career, and he’s only going to get worse from here. If we cut him now, it’s only $7.5 million in dead money we have to endure, which is nearly $10 million in savings (minus whatever minimal amount we’d pay to whoever replaces him on the roster). I would argue, given how cash-strapped we are, we HAVE to cut Wagner, just to fill out our roster! But, I would also argue that the difference between Wagner and a replacement-level player (or Wagner and Jordyn Brooks, if he happens to slide over to the middle linebacker spot) is not as great as you’d think. It’s certainly not worth the extra $10 million we’d be paying a 31 year old Wagner.

Unfortunately, what with him being a surefire NFL Hall of Famer and a guy whose jersey number the Seahawks will surely retire one day, I don’t see that happening. Maybe AFTER the 2021 season – when the dead cap figure is only $3.75 million – but even then, who knows? It could get REALLY frustrating trying to root for this guy the next couple years; here’s to hoping that the Seahawks do the smart thing – the unemotional thing – and let us all go out on a high note, rather than letting the relationship sour like so many others before (Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril – the last two due to career-ending injuries, but still a financial drain to this organization).

Two other candidates are Carlos Dunlap and Duane Brown. Dunlap has zero dead money counting against our cap if we cut him; otherwise, if his contract remains as is, he would be worth a hair over $14 million. That, obviously, isn’t happening. Not to say he isn’t worth it! He really changed the face of this defense when he came over from the Bengals! But, that price is too high for our cap. What I think will happen – given that Dunlap will only be 32 and still highly productive – is that the Seahawks will tear up the contract and sign him to a 3-year deal that’s team-friendly in the first year, with a significant guarantee for 2022, and a signing bonus that can be spread out over the life of the deal (maybe tacking on a non-guaranteed 4th year to make the salary cap right).

As for Brown, he’ll be entering the final year of his extension that would count $13 million against us (with only $2 million in dead money if we cut him). This is another guy I don’t think we can afford to leave as is and let his contract play out. He’ll be 36 years old next year. Now, he too played at a pretty high level in 2020, but if you saw what I saw in that playoff game – with how much difficulty he had in just getting up off the turf and moving around – you’d see a guy who’s not long for this league. At the very least, he’s not someone who will be playing at a high level for very much longer. He’s one knee injury away from his career being over, and that injury could come at any time. The problem is, we have no viable replacement on our roster. Anyone we do have is either injury prone or terrible (particularly as a left tackle). We could sign someone for cheap, but we’ve done that before (in the period post-Russell Okung to pre-Duane Brown, most recently) and it never works out. We could draft someone, but considering we hardly have any draft picks at all – and the ones we do have are QUITE low – anyone we ended up bringing in would be worse than the crappy veterans at our disposal.

Quite frankly, from a talent standpoint, we’re at least a year away from replacing Brown (and that’s assuming we manage to draft his replacement THIS year and hope that guy develops in a hurry). I don’t know what the plan with him was heading into 2020, but I don’t think it was to make him a cap casualty by 2021. On the contrary, I think the Seahawks are setting up to give him yet another extension, for a year or two beyond 2021, which I am absolutely dreading. But, if we want any hope whatsoever to contend next season, we’ll need to pray he can hang on.

***

I’ll close this post with a list of the no-brainers, but first here are some of the … brainers, I guess.

K.J. Wright had a fantastic 2020 season. He’s had a fabulous Seahawks career since we drafted him in 2011! But, he counted $10 million against us this year and that’s just not anywhere near a figure we can approach in 2021. Since I have no belief that the Seahawks will do the right thing with Wagner, then they MUST cut the cord with Wright and make Brooks a full-time linebacker in his second season out of college. Otherwise, why the fuck did you draft him so high in the first place?

Chris Carson’s rookie deal just expired. I won’t say he’s shot, but he’s never NOT going to be injury-prone! Considering how great he’s been when healthy, he’s going to demand a high salary; but since he can’t stay healthy, it makes no sense to pay him that, when we can get similar production from a cheaper guy (who hopefully will be able to stay on the field). I would also say that Carson – while building his reputation as a guy who sought out contact – spent the majority of his time (when he returned from injury this past season) avoiding contact and running out of bounds. Not that I blame him, mind you! He’s gotta get his! But, he’s obviously not the same type of guy when he’s avoiding defenders.

Ethan Pocic earned a little over $1 million as this team’s starting center in the final year of his rookie deal. Presumably, he’ll be looking for a raise if he re-signs. Since he STUNK against the Rams – and since he was average-at-best in all the other games – I see no reason why we couldn’t draft a guy (or even bring in an undrafted free agent) to be our starting center next year.

Shaquill Griffin’s final season under his own rookie deal just expired. He’s a good-not-great coverage corner with little-to-no ball skills and hardly any interceptions on his resume. Nevertheless, he’s going to be looking for a contract near the top of the market (not in the top tier, but definitely in the one right below it). That hypothetically could work under our cap – since the first year of any extension is relatively cheap, with most of the money being back-loaded – but considering the guys we have to pay, and also factoring in an extension for Jamal Adams, I don’t see how the Seahawks fit him in. We have D.J. Reed at less than $1 million, plus Tre Flowers if we have to start him again. I think we’ll get by.

David Moore just earned $1 million in 2020, and that was money well spent. I could see him commanding more money on the open market, and I don’t see why we should be the team to give it to him, since we have Freddie Swain on a rookie contract. For a third/fourth receiver? There are other ways to go.

This probably should go without saying, but I’m going to say it anyway because I feel like it needs to be said: LET GREG OSLEN GO INTO BROADCASTING! Fucking $7 million dollars (*shaking head*).

Jacob Hollister was tendered and kept on at over $3 million. That was unnecessary, and will be even MORE unnecessary in 2021. We have Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson (who we drafted relatively highly in 2020), and any number of youngish guys, as well as Luke Willson (who is always partying on the scrap heap, just waiting for us to bring him back). We don’t use the tight end enough to justify paying as much money as we do on it, not when we mostly need it for blocking purposes. Blocking tight ends are – like linebackers and running backs – another dime-a-dozen position group.

Finally, here are the guys who it should go without saying that we should let walk:

Mike Iupati – great career, but you’re done.

Quinton Dunbar – bust of a trade acquisition, bust of a player, bust of a human being (even if he wasn’t convicted of anything, he still probably did something sketchy).

Lano Hill – please, no more.

Neiko Thorpe – a once-great special teams ace who can’t stay healthy. Salud.

Phillip Dorsett – a nice idea as a free agent, but he never played a down. Wide receivers need healthy feet to be worth a damn.