Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Snoopy & Prickly Pete

Also, check out the Fantasy Football tag for all my past ramblings on the subject.

Last year ended as horribly as can be in my Main League. I made the 6-team playoffs, but then promptly lost in the first round. That means I missed out on the 4-team consolation bracket – which plays for the top 4 draft picks the following season – and was saddled in the 5/6 game, playing for the 5th/6th draft pick. Of course, I lost that game as well, and here I was, heading into this season drafting 6th out of 10 teams, in a standard (non-snake) draft.

Last year, we were up to 4 keepers, having steadily increased that number over the last few years, with the ultimate goal of turning the league into a Dynasty League. Finally, there was enough discontent that the talk at this year’s rules meeting centered on, “We either need to go full dynasty, or blow it all up and eliminate keepers altogether.”

I don’t mind telling you I was lobbying hard to go with the dynasty league. I’ve been spending the last few years suffering mediocre finishes all in the name of trying to find the best keepers possible to carry over (with the primary goal of finding one or two quality quarterbacks to finally cement that position once and for all). I didn’t want all of that work to go to waste. Thankfully, by the thinnest of margins, we were able to vote in the dynasty.

Our set up is like this: we have to keep all of our starting positions. 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF. Easy peasy. We’ll get to wait until about a week before our fantasy draft next year before declaring who those keepers will be. Then, at the draft, we’ll select our 5 bench spots out of whoever’s left over, plus any incoming rookies.

This all starts NEXT year, meaning that we’re still only carrying over 4 keepers from last season. But, with our draft – that took place last Thursday – it’s officially on. If you’re not going all-in on the dynasty aspect with regards to who you’re drafting, then that means you like your team an awful lot and are pushing to win the championship within the next 1-2 years.

I didn’t love my keepers heading into our draft, because – SPOILER ALERT – I had no quarterbacks among the four. My keepers were:

  1. A.J. Brown (WR)
  2. CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  3. Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

That’s the ranking of how much I liked them, 1 through 4. I was waffling back and forth on CEH until the bitter end, before I read enough pundits who think he’s due to have a bounce-back year in his second season in the league. I can buy it. He doesn’t appear to have a lot of competition at the spot in Kansas City; even though they throw the ball WAY MORE than they run it, he could sneak in for some more touchdowns and still catch a lot of balls.

I had zero interest in keeping Josh Jacobs. He was supposed to be my horse last year, but he underwhelmed, and then the Raiders brought in Kenyan Drake (the bane of every fantasy owner’s existence wherever he plays, because he’s always stealing carries from someone more promising). I had a lot of fringey receivers I was mulling over (Jerry Jeudy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Chark, and Rashard Higgins), but all of those guys are players that could easily be had in any fantasy draft.

As for my two quarterbacks, I had Kirk Cousins (who’s a non-starter for me, since he’s not vaccinated – which means there’s a high likelihood he misses games this year – and he’s just overall mediocre), and Tua Tagovailoa. I made a HUGE to-do about picking him up on waivers last year, thinking his Alabama pedigree might translate to NFL success. But, he just looked too shitty as a rookie last year. More often than not, you can see which rookie quarterbacks are going to be studs, and which ones are going to be Marcus Mariota. Tua looks like he’s going to be a left-handed Mariota.

In the end, my final keeper came down to CEH and Tee Higgins. I was THIS close to keeping Higgins, because I freaking love that dude, and I think in that Bengals offense he’s going to be steadily productive for the next decade. But, the Bengals also went out and drafted another elite receiver really high in this year’s draft, plus they still have Tyler Boyd, who’s solid. There ended up being too many cooks in that kitchen, and I was scared off. I still think Higgins will be the best of those three this year, but going forward, it’s iffy.

Plus, let’s face it, there are tons of solid wide receivers all throughout the league. Keeping three of them seemed like overkill. I would’ve been effectively handing over my FLEX spot to Higgins, and if for whatever reason he struggles, then I’ve wasted one of my keeper spots for a fringe fantasy starter.

***

I had a couple plans heading into the draft with my 6th overall pick. Trevor Lawrence would obviously be off the table (he, indeed, went #1 overall). I assumed Najee Harris would also be off the table (he ended up being taken with the third pick, for reasons I’ll get into in a moment). I ranked my top six players, and my third choice would’ve been Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (who very well might’ve fallen to me, as he was ultimately taken 7th), followed by Matthew Stafford (who did fall to me, though I ended up trading him – SPOILER ALERT AGAIN), and then the Washington and Indy running backs as 5th and 6th (they ended up going 5th and 4th respectively).

I would’ve been elated to have Matthew Stafford, because I think he’s going to have an awesome year with the Rams. Plus, he’s only 33 years old, which means he could have another 7-10 years ahead of him if things break right!

My general plan was to load up on quarterbacks – taking lots of flyers on rookies, after Stafford – and running backs (to try to load up on depth in case of injuries and BYEs). This was always going to be a quasi-throwaway year for me, in hopes that I’d find the two quarterbacks I’d be rolling with for the next 5-10 years.

That was thrown out the window when Hahmez Wah 360 Allstars (don’t ask) texted the entire league saying his keepers were available for trade (in exchange for players and/or draft picks).

He actually had four pretty good keepers (Derrick Henry, D.K. Metcalf, George Kittle, and Stefon Diggs), but for whatever reason, he was looking to shake things up.

I didn’t want Henry because he’s being run into the ground and probably has 1-2 more years MAX before he begins his slide. I didn’t want Kittle because he could be an injury risk with the way he plays the game and how hard he is on his body. D.K. Metcalf is obviously a huge draw for me, as a Seahawks fan, and I think he’s someone who could be the #1 scoring wide receiver as early as THIS year. Plus he’s young and should be good for another decade. Sign me up!

I made Hahmez Wah 360 Allstars a lowball offer (I think a second rounder, or a fourth rounder plus A.J. Brown); he countered saying he needed my first rounder. I took a bit to think about it, before ultimately concluding that D.K. Metcalf with the 6th pick would be guaranteed to be better than anyone who might fall to me (there would’ve been the potential for higher upside with someone like Pitts, but there’s always a risk with any rookie).

I’m lucky I accepted the offer when I did, because by the next day someone had offered him the #2 overall pick for D.K. I told that guy (with the #2 pick) if Trevor Lawrence somehow – by the grace of God – fell out of the top spot, I’d trade him D.K. for Lawrence (which he agreed to, since he already has Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert as his keepers), but of course that was never going to happen.

Hahmez Wah, in the end, turned his aforementioned keepers into Jalen Hurts (#2 overall) & Chris Carson (he traded his #9 overall for the #2 overall, while also giving away Derrick Henry in the deal), Matthew Stafford (in the Metcalf deal), Tyler Lockett (in the Kittle deal, where he got the first pick in the second round), while still hanging onto Stefon Diggs. I wouldn’t love that for my team – if I were him, I would’ve stuck the keepers I had – but I understand the impulse in making a radical change. Also, it IS a game, after all; it’s supposed to be fun, right? What’s more fun than a crazy slew of trades?

***

So, heading into the second round, I had three receivers and two running backs. It was time to start looking into the quarterback position.

No other QB was taken after the three I already mentioned. Next up on my private dynasty rankings was Justin Fields, so I grabbed him with my second pick. No, he’s not starting right away, but the stories I’ve read about him were phenomenal, and I think he has real breakout potential. Trey Lance was going to be my next choice, but he was taken from me two picks before my spot in the third round, so I settled on Mac Jones. Also hearing great stories about him! Less of a running threat, but in a better team situation than Fields, so I like that.

Then, for good measure – because I needed someone to start right away in week one – I nabbed Jameis Winston. He’s been on and off my fantasy team for years, but he had last year off (for the most part) and has been learning the Saints’ system. If he’s even remotely more careful with the ball, he’s a guy who’s capable of throwing for 5,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns. We also forget: he’s also only 27 years old; so if he does change his entire career around, that could be a steal for me.

As chance would have it, Cousins was around for my fifth pick, but I zagged and went with the Rams’ defense. I feel like they have the potential to be solid for the duration of Aaron Donald’s career, so why not? Then, with my sixth pick, Noah Fant was still available. I had him as a rookie and it sounds like the offense is going to be vastly improved in Denver, so I like the idea of having him for the foreseeable future. Also, the drop-off after Fant was pretty considerable (the next guys taken were Goedert and Tonyan; I’m good with my choice).

Then, I finally had to break down and get a third running back. Obviously, my plan to load up on the position was a failure. It was down to Chase Edmonds or Raheem Mostert in the 7th round. Edmonds went one pick earlier, so Mostert it is! I like Mostert; when he’s healthy, he’s dominant (in many ways, he’s like Chris Carson). He just can’t stay healthy. But, if I can squeeze a few weeks out of him, I’ll look to hopefully address the running back position next year.

In the 8th round, I nabbed Justin Tucker. He’s only 31 years old and he’s the best kicker in football. He could be around for another 10-15 years if he takes care of himself. After that, I went back to the quarterback well, grabbing Jimmy G. Obviously, the 49ers drafted their quarterback of the future. But, if you look at the 49ers’ schedule, it’s pretty damn easy the first few weeks of the season. I’ll mix and match with him and Mac Jones for a while until Jimmy G ultimately gets benched, and hope he has enough pride to force the 49ers’ hand in benching a guy playing well. At the very least, he has a soft landing against the Lions in week one, where I expect him to be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback (for just that one week, anyway). Yes, I know there’s potential for Lance to snipe some snaps from him, but I don’t care. As long as he’s not getting entire chunks of plays in the red zone, I’ll be happy.

With my next-to-last pick, I took a chance on Buffalo’s Zack Moss. He was a rookie last year and the team obviously liked him enough to draft him in the third round. Maybe this is the year he assumes the starter job! Of course, even then, it’s not like Buffalo runs the ball all that much. I’m hoping they get such huge leads early in games, that they’ll be running the ball exclusively in the fourth quarter.

Finally, for my super sleeper, I picked Jordan Love, backup quarterback of the Green Bay Packers. I’m going to do my damnedest to hang onto him all year. The way I see it, if none of my rookie QBs pan out this year, and are not keeper-worthy in my eyes, I’ll just keep Love and roll the dice. They obviously drafted him to be Aaron Rodgers’ replacement sooner or later. If I have no one better, why not keep him and see if he’s elite?

***

There’s obviously a lot wrong with my team at this point in my dynasty. The quarterback situation is a mess and my running back depth is nil. But, I have just the three receivers: D.K., Brown, and Lamb, and I think all three of those guys are Top 10 calibre players at the position. I’m set! In non-BYE weeks (and, in non-injury situations), I have my two WR spots and my FLEX spot all locked down. Not having any receivers on my bench affords me the luxury of carrying extra RBs and QBs. If I’m ever able to lock down the quarterback spot to my satisfaction, that leaves me more room on my bench for even more RBs, as well as potential backups to tight end or defense (which always comes in handy).

I think I’m done making RBs a priority. Unless some super-stud rookie falls to me in the first round of the draft next year, I’m just going to do my best to either stream running backs or carry enough in those second-to-fourth tiers to play matchups and hope I get around 10 points from each. If my QBs and receivers can carry me, I think that’s a championship formula. Running backs are just too damn fickle and too injury prone; it’s impossible to rely on them to be 20+ point workhorses anymore. I’d rather go for elite receivers, hope they blow up a few times a year, and just get steady-if-unspectacular production from my RBs. Plus, if I’m able to find someone on the free agent scrap heap that comes from nowhere to crush it, all the better.

***

Now, it’s time to talk about this week. My team is Snoopy & Prickly Pete (Seinfeld reference, for the second straight year!). I’m going up against the reigning league champion, Car Talk With Josh Allen (guess who one of his quarterbacks is). He’s projected to finish third in our league (one game ahead of me), and – not for nothing – he’s projected to beat me in week 1.

Here’s my week 1 lineup, barring any unexpected last-minute COVID issues:

  • Jameis Winston (QB) vs. GB
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) @ DET
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) @ TB
  • A.J. Brown (WR) vs. AZ
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ TB
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) vs. CLE
  • Noah Fant (TE) @ NYG
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ IND
  • Justin Tucker (K) @ LV
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) vs. CHI

As I said, I love Jimmy G against a nothing Detroit defense; Mac Jones is my only other option and I’d rather not start a rookie in his first game, against a defense as good as Miami’s. As I also said, all my receivers are locked in, which means the only other choice was my #2 running back (though, I don’t love Zeke against that Bucs defense, with their All Pro guard out for this game). I briefly considered Mostert against Detroit, but I’d really like to see what the 49ers’ offense looks like, with their two quarterbacks, plus their new rookie running back angling to steal snaps. I’m rolling with all my keepers, at least for now!

Car Talk looks like he’s got the following:

  • Josh Allen (QB) vs. PIT
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) vs. LAC
  • Allen Robinson (WR) @ LAR
  • Julio Jones (WR) vs. AZ
  • Aaron Jones (RB) @ NO
  • Joe Mixon (RB) vs. MIN
  • Travis Kelce (TE) vs. CLE
  • Robert Woods (WR) vs. CHI
  • Tyler Bass (K) vs. PIT
  • Baltimore (DEF) @ LV

Our teams are pretty much even (he’s a little better at QB, I’m a little better at WR) except for the difference in our projected points from the tight end position. Kelce is the best in football; mine is just okay. That’s always a huge advantage and I hope I’m able to one day have something similar on my team. In the meantime, I’ll just have to hope the Chiefs run the ball more and throw their TDs to their wide receivers. That’s a tall ask.

I’m guessing I’ll lose this game. I’ll be down in the dumps on Sunday, but a dynasty league isn’t about just one week, or even one season. This is a transitional year, and I hope to be better at the end than I am at the beginning.

In the meantime, PATIENCE! I need to practice extreme patience, and accept losing for what it is: a temporary means to an end, that will one day result in my name on that championship trophy. Maybe not this year, but one year soon. Let’s fucking go.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua No Avail

  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE – Here We Fucking Go Again
  • Pre-Season Week 2 HERE – Corona-Draft Prep
  • Fantasy Draft HERE – Nobody Beats The Wiz!
  • Week 1 HERE – Crisis Averted!
  • Week 2 HERE – Everything That Could Go Wrong
  • Week 3 HERE – Some Nobody Did, In Fact, Beat The Wiz!
  • Week 4 HERE – Literally Everyone Beats The Fucking Wiz
  • Week 5 HERE – Signs Of Life!
  • Week 6 HERE – And Tua All A Good Night
  • Week 7 HERE – Tua Be Or Not Tua Be, That Is The Question
  • Week 8 HERE – Tua Thine Own Self Be True
  • Week 9 HERE – Tua The Window, Tua The Wall!!!
  • Week 10 HERE – Tua Infinity & Beyond!
  • Week 11 HERE – Tua Err Is Human
  • Week 12 HERE – Although We’ve Come Tua The End Of The Road

Well, I lucked out winning the previous four weeks, because if I’d bungled any one of them I’d be relegated to the Consolation Bracket. Instead, with my 7-6 record, I managed to sneak into the playoffs as the sixth and final seed. I really had no shot against Sausage Shaped Pest, who annihilated me 193 to 136.45.

He got almost 40 out of Derek Carr and 45 points from Carr’s tight end Darren Waller, with another 27.3 from Justin Jefferson (remember when I had him on my team oh-so-briefly, earlier this season?); those three guys alone practically did enough to beat me! As for my team, I’m still getting great effort out of Kirk Cousins (28.45), and my kicker finally had a huge game (17). But, my sweet, simple Tua only got me 21.1, and I took a full-on goose-egg from CEH (who I had to throw into my second running back spot, because Josh Jacobs was injured).

In Nobody Beats The Wiz Bench News, Carson Wentz has finally been replaced at quarterback by the Philadelphia Eagles, in favor of Jalen Hurts. So, he’s now useless to me. I’m down to Cousins and Tua, but I probably have to hang onto Ryan Fitzpatrick just in case Tua has to sit again. What a nightmare! Wentz has SO MUCH guaranteed money left on his contract; I don’t know what the Eagles are going to do.

So, here’s how the playoff seeding works: the top two teams (Sloane N Steady and The Lance Petemans) get a BYE this upcoming week. Then, the 3-seed plays the 6-seed, while the 4-seed plays the 5-seed. The top two teams ended up with 9-4 records; third place is 8-5, and the rest are 7-6 (including me, who has the fewest points scored among all the playoff teams).

Everyone in the “Wild Card” round was trying to scramble to not play Space Forcin’. Somehow, through my sheer incompetence, I managed to do just that! As the 6-seed, I play Colinoscopy Time, while Crazy N8’s Prostates (who leapfrogged me this past week) has the ill-fortune to get Space Forcin’. The winner of my game plays 2-seed The Lance Petemans; the winner of the other game goes up against 1-seed Sloane N Steady.

Last week I promised you a rundown of all my season finishes dating back to 2003, when we started running a Yahoo! league. I’ll list them out really quickly here, noting for the record that 2010 was the first year we had the trophy (as you’ll see, my only championships were in years BEFORE the trophy, which has been a constant source of misery for me):

  • 2019 – Space Pirates!: 8th Place
  • 2018 – King Flippy Nips: 4th Place
  • 2017 – Mr. Poopy Butthole: 4th Place
  • 2016 – Shittin’ Clits: 8th Place
  • 2015 – Catalina Wine Mixer: 6th Place
  • 2014 – Honky Hoedown: 4th Place
  • 2013 – Wanna Kiss Dicks?: 5th Place
  • 2012 – Leaky Submarine: 10th Place
  • 2011 – The Jake Sucks: 7th Place
  • 2010 – Macho Headgames: 2nd Place
  • 2009 – Hot Beef Injection: 1st Place
  • 2008 – The Vers Stopper: 3rd Place
  • 2007 – Washington: 6th Place
  • 2006 – Goodnight Honeytits: 8th Place
  • 2005 – Titty-Fuck Jake’sMom: 7th Place
  • 2004 – Ray Finkle: 1st Place
  • 2003 – Must Win Out: 5th Place

A few notes: for starters, there’s a 20-character limit on team names, so keep that in mind when you see some creative spellings/line spacings. Also, after the first few years, the league had to institute a rule – due to my shenanigans – where the name you choose at the beginning of the year is the name you’re stuck with; I would often change my team’s name from week-to-week depending on if I was losing or not. I’ll never top Hot Beef Injection as a team OR a team name (though, I have a fondness for Wanna Kiss Dicks?, as I feel that made everyone REALLY uncomfortable to ever have to say or read on their screens).

I should also point out that 2014 was the first year we expanded the playoffs from four to six teams (a rule that I recommended at the start of the year, I might add, thanks to Wanna Kiss Dicks?’ heartbreaking finish on the outside-looking-in). Honky Hoedown went into the playoffs as the #1 seed; we were a JUGGERNAUT! The sixth place team, on the other hand, barely limped into the playoffs, yet he got hot at the right time and won three games in a row. Had the playoffs been limited to just the four teams (oh yes, I went back and did the math), my name would’ve been on that trophy for that season. Instead, it continues to be my white whale …

All right, so let’s get into the playoff week. Unless Colinoscopy Time totally falls on his face, breaks his nose, and simultaneously shits his pants while suffering a brain aneurysm, I’m going to lose this week. Losing this week means I’ll be playing for 5th place next week (and, as such, the right to draft 5th overall in next year’s draft; the highest I can possibly draft since I made the playoffs). It’s actually a curse to be the worst team to make the playoffs, so I don’t know why the fantasy football gods decided to put this on me. I mean, obviously they hate me! That much is clear. But why? And what can I do to atone for my sins?

Anyway, here’s my shitty roster with my even-shittier matchups:

  • Kirk Cousins (QB) @ TB
  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) vs. KC
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ JAX
  • DeVante Parker (WR) vs. KC
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ CIN
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) vs. IND
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) vs. NO
  • Deebo Samuel (WR) vs. WAS
  • Harrison Butker (K) @ MIA
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) vs. NE

And here’s the list of guys who are going to murder me:

  • Deshaun Watson (QB) @ CHI
  • Ben Roethlisberger (QB) @ BUF
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) vs. NYJ
  • Stefon Diggs (WR) vs. PIT
  • Derrick Henry (RB) @ JAX
  • Ronald Jones (RB) vs. MIN
  • Robert Tonyan (TE) @ DET
  • Jamison Crowder (WR) @ SEA
  • Zane Gonzalez (K) @ NYG
  • Tennessee (DEF) @ JAX

He’s also got James White and D’Andre Swift at running back, Marquise Brown as an alternative at his FLEX spot, and Cam Newton at quarterback if he wanted to get cute with his matchups (going against my defense). I don’t know if I love a lot of his matchups either, but his players are SO MUCH better. Derrick Henry alone will surely score 30+, and don’t even get me started on D.K. Metcalf!

Well, it’s been an improbable run so far, but we finally made it. The playoffs are everything you imagine them to be. It’s exciting, because you never know who will get hot at the right time. It’s also a huge source of dread, because I know it won’t be me.

I guess there’s always my other league, where I’ve been on a 3-game losing streak, yet somehow still hold onto the #2 spot in the standings. I’ll still make it into the playoffs, but it doesn’t feel good to limp in, I’ll tell you that much!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Although We’ve Come Tua The End Of The Road

  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE – Here We Fucking Go Again
  • Pre-Season Week 2 HERE – Corona-Draft Prep
  • Fantasy Draft HERE – Nobody Beats The Wiz!
  • Week 1 HERE – Crisis Averted!
  • Week 2 HERE – Everything That Could Go Wrong
  • Week 3 HERE – Some Nobody Did, In Fact, Beat The Wiz!
  • Week 4 HERE – Literally Everyone Beats The Fucking Wiz
  • Week 5 HERE – Signs Of Life!
  • Week 6 HERE – And Tua All A Good Night
  • Week 7 HERE – Tua Be Or Not Tua Be, That Is The Question
  • Week 8 HERE – Tua Thine Own Self Be True
  • Week 9 HERE – Tua The Window, Tua The Wall!!!
  • Week 10 HERE – Tua Infinity & Beyond!
  • Week 11 HERE – Tua Err Is Human

Still I can’t let go! Tua belongs to me! I belong Tua!

This was supposed to be a Get Right game for Tua (against the Jets), but instead he suffered some sort of thumb injury beforehand (!) and didn’t even play. That left me scrambling to get his backup, but thankfully I was on the ball this time. So, it was The Return Of FitzMagic who was … fine. 25.85 points is actually pretty good for me, but obviously when you’re going up against the Jets you’d like to see 30+ out of your quarterback. In the end, it didn’t matter because I was smart enough to sub Kirk Cousins in for Carson Wentz, who ended up getting me 35.25 (compared to Wentz’s 22.95), and Nobody Beats The Wiz ended up defeating Korky Butchek 172.78 to 104.90.

What a drubbing! And, it could’ve been so much worse, but I got cold feet at the last minute with Deebo Samuel. Once Tua was ruled out, I was able to stash him in one of my IR spots, giving me an opportunity to pick up Atlanta’s backup running back – Brian Hill, who was starting in place of the injured Todd Gurley – who I figured would be good for 10 points or so, with upside in the high teens. I was honestly more worried that the Rams’ defense would destroy the 49ers, but boy was I mistaken! Hill only got 5.5, while Deebo racked up 24.3 for my bench (and, to boot, the 49ers actually beat the Rams, to help the Seahawks out!).

But, on top of my QBs killing it, I had a lot of guys running up the score. A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, and the Rams’ defense all had over 20 points (with DeVante Parker getting 19.9); that was enough to overcome my three running backs scoring me a combined 13.8.

The victory puts me at 7-5 on the season, and thanks to Sausage Shaped Pest losing, guarantees me a spot in this year’s playoffs! Now, all I have to worry about is playoff seeding.

I was about to get into all the possible scenarios, but they are too varied to count. Suffice it to say I’m currently in 5th place; the highest I can climb is to third place (if I win and the two teams above me – also 7-5 – lose their games). The lowest I can finish is 6th place; I have no tiebreaker advantages because I have the fewest points scored of all the teams in the playoffs. I wish I knew the history of being the playoff team with the fewest points, but I’ve never been in this position! Usually, I’m one of the teams that scores MORE than one (or more) of the playoff teams, but due to bad luck ends up in the Consolation Bracket. So, this is uncharted territory for me; hopefully my team gets hot at the right time!

This week, Nobody Beats The Wiz gets a meaningless matchup against Sausage Shaped Pest. It most likely won’t matter either way if I win or lose, so watch me have my best game of the entire season (right before having my absolute worst game, to bounce me from the playoffs). Here’s my lineup anyway (subject to change, if I get a wild hair up my ass about something on Sunday morning):

  • Kirk Cousins (QB) vs. JAX
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa (QB) vs. CIN
  • A.J. Brown (WR) vs. CLE
  • DeVante Parker (WR) vs. CIN
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ BAL
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) @ NYJ
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) @ GB
  • Deebo Samuel (WR) vs. BUF
  • Harrison Butker (K) vs. DEN
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) @ ARI

It seems to be a toss-up as to who will start for Miami this week; is Tua’s injury healed? We’ll see! My three receivers all have great matchups this week; my running backs less so (especially if Jacobs’ sprained ankle doesn’t allow him to play; then I’ll have to start CEH against Denver’s stout defense). But, again, I’m not too worried because this game is meaningless. Here’s Sausage Shaped Pest’s roster this week:

  • Derek Carr (QB) @ NYJ
  • Kyler Murray (QB) vs. LAR
  • Michael Thomas (WR) @ ATL
  • Justin Jefferson (WR) vs. JAX
  • Gio Bernard (RB) @ MIA
  • Wayne Gallman (RB) @ SEA
  • Darren Waller (TE) @ NYJ
  • Brandin Cooks (WR) vs. IND
  • Brandon McManus (K) @ KC
  • Cleveland (DEF) @ TEN

That’s a pretty good team, that’s been decimated by injuries. He should have Joe Mixon and Saquon Barkley as his starting running backs, but both are currently on IR. He’s also got Mike Evans on BYE this week to hamper his flex spot. Nevertheless, there’s a lot of firepower left over. My guess is he’ll pick up a new defense this week, but he also might not care because he’s already been doomed to the Consolation Bracket.

Next week, I’ll have a playoff preview, since I’m guaranteed to be playing in Week 14. The top two seeds – both with 8-4 records at the moment – while they don’t have their BYEs locked in, they’ve at least locked me out (since they have SO MANY more points than I do). Nevertheless, you know what’s crazy? I have the longest active winning streak in the league right now, of four games, with a very good chance to make it five heading into the playoffs. The hottest team wins no awards, and it has no bearing on what happens in the all-important playoffs. But, I feel better than I did two months ago, when it comes to my team! I’ve done everything I can to try to improve my lineup, and now it’s up to the players to lead me to victory or (more likely) submarine me into the briny deep.

Now that I feel somewhat okay about my lot in (fantasy football) life, watch it all blow up in my fucking face. Next week, I’ll take you down Memory Lane, and look at all of my fantasy football finishes in this league, dating back to 2003 (when we joined Yahoo!). Spoiler Alert: there’s A LOT of mediocrity!

The Seahawks Should Steamroll The Eagles Tonight

I wanted to start this off saying that I’m weirdly confident in the Seahawks going to Philly and kicking some ass, but I don’t even think it’s that weird! The Eagles are fucking terrible. Carson Wentz is so bad (HOW BAD IS HE?) that I had the option of starting him in fantasy football this week – against a Seahawks defense that has given up more passing yards than anyone else in NFL history to this point in the season – and I ended up getting cold feet, benching him for Kirk Cousins of all people! Carson Wentz is so bad (HOW BAD IS HE?) that he just signed a huge $128 million contract last year, and the Eagles are already talking about giving (as well as ACTUALLY giving) rookie Jalen Hurts practice reps with the first team offense this week. Hurts, of course, couldn’t prevent Tua from stealing his job at Alabama, so it’s tough to say what his professional career is going to be (I would bet probably not great), but this is a pretty serious indictment of how far Wentz has fallen in not even one full season’s worth of sucking.

How the mighty have fallen, when it comes to the Eagles, though. Remember it was as recent as the 2017 season when they beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl and everyone was predicting that they’d be the new dynasty in the NFC. Since then, it’s been a couple of 9-7 finishes and early playoff exits, as well as whatever this abomination has been in 2020 (are they REALLY going to blow the NFC East to the 4-7 Giants or the 4-7 Washington Football Team?!).

This is a really perplexing team in that regard, because so many of the same pieces are still in place. Obviously, injuries play a significant role in their struggles the last two seasons, but at what point do you stop blaming injuries and start blaming the fact that they haven’t filled in the back of their roster with improved talent? Then, you look at the coaching staff and you wonder how this is (minus Frank Reich) the same group that out-coached the greatest coach of all time in Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl? They can’t seem to figure ANYTHING out, not even how to win the absolute worst division in NFL history!

The thing is, there’s talent there. The defensive line has some guys, anchored by Fletcher Cox in the middle; Brandon Graham has 7 sacks, Derek Barnett has 4.5, Josh Sweat has 4. They can get after it! I don’t know if the secondary terrifies you, but Darius Slay was a lockdown corner for the Lions and presumably hasn’t fallen off too far. Offensively, they’ve got some great weapons at running back in Miles Sanders and Boston Scott. Dallas Goedert is a quality tight end (as is Zach Ertz when he’s healthy). It even appears they’ve FINALLY managed to develop a good receiver in Travis Fulgham. The point being: they shouldn’t be THIS inept! And yet, here we are.

I think you have to point to the offensive line woes as the primary culprit. I still contend that Wentz wasn’t that bad a season ago (and last year, the talent level really was pretty bad, especially at receiver). But, this is two years in a row where injuries along the offensive line have made his life miserable, and it’s starting to get in Wentz’s head. He’s making some of the worst decisions I’ve ever seen from a quarterback, and that falls on his utter lack of confidence that he won’t get destroyed behind that O-Line. You see this happen (though, usually the guys are a little on the older side; it’s a little shocking to see it with someone who’s 27 years old and in the prime of what was once a great career), and when it does, it’s hard to recover from. He could turn it around next year, if they bolster his blockers up front, but I don’t envision much in the way of improvement in 2020.

And certainly not this week. I think this is a great place to start in on the Seahawks, because we’ve seen significant improvement out of our pass rush in the last few weeks. Indeed, in the three games Carlos Dunlap has played in, the Seahawks have had 13 sacks; in the first seven games of the season we had only 12! We went from being at or very near the bottom of the entire league, to tied for 13th (with, again, a game to play tonight to rise up the rankings). You can downplay Dunlap’s importance in that turnaround all you want, but he has 3.5 sacks in 3 games, which is already good for second-most on the team (behind Jamal Adams’ 5.5). He’s not only getting it done by himself (which is more than we could say for Clowney last year, forget the goose egg he’s giving the Titans this year), but he’s freeing up those around him to succeed at getting to opposing quarterbacks as well. Jarran Reed looks like a new man! L.J. Collier (at least, when he’s rushing from a defensive tackle spot) looks ALMOST like a guy who can play in this league (which is a far cry from where he was in his rookie season). If the Seahawks don’t win along the defensive line tonight, I will be legitimately shocked, because this is the first time all year I can say WITH CONFIDENCE that we have the upper hand at this position group.

The Mini-BYE comes at the perfect time, of course. I would say the Seahawks have had good BYE placement this season. We had one after going 5-0 (when we had a lot of injuries to recover from), and now at the 10-game mark I think we’re finally going to see most of guys back and playing again. The only serious blow is losing Brandon Shell for this one. Given how much time we’ve had off since our last game, I’m hoping we’re just being extra careful. If there’s one spot I’m worried about, it’s that one, and whoever is coming off the edge to abuse Cedric Ogbuehi.

But, that’s really it. Chris Carson is back! Carlos Hyde is still here! Ethan Pocic should return to snap the ball, which moves Damien Lewis back to his natural right guard spot, and all is otherwise right with the world when it comes to the O-Line (save the aforementioned RT spot). If the Seahawks don’t score the easiest 31 points you’ve ever seen, then I dunno, some freaky shit must be going on.

I mean, I hate to pull this card out, but the Seahawks have the NFL’s highest winning percentage on Monday Night Football. That might be a coincidence, or a fluke, but who cares?! We get it done on the NFL’s second-brightest stage (I think it’s safe to say Sunday Night Football has well supplanted MNF as the game of the week). The Seahawks are favored by 6.5 points and I don’t think even that line is high enough. I think this game will end up being a total laugher by the end.

And if it isn’t, then the Seahawks will have some ‘splaining to do …

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua Err Is Human

  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE – Here We Fucking Go Again
  • Pre-Season Week 2 HERE – Corona-Draft Prep
  • Fantasy Draft HERE – Nobody Beats The Wiz!
  • Week 1 HERE – Crisis Averted!
  • Week 2 HERE – Everything That Could Go Wrong
  • Week 3 HERE – Some Nobody Did, In Fact, Beat The Wiz!
  • Week 4 HERE – Literally Everyone Beats The Fucking Wiz
  • Week 5 HERE – Signs Of Life!
  • Week 6 HERE – And Tua All A Good Night
  • Week 7 HERE – Tua Be Or Not Tua Be, That Is The Question
  • Week 8 HERE – Tua Thine Own Self Be True
  • Week 9 HERE – Tua The Window, Tua The Wall!!!
  • Week 10 HERE – Tua Infinity & Beyond!

Again, I just want to say: I don’t know how I’m doing this. I don’t know how I’m still winning games. I don’t know WHY these opponents of mine keep underperforming their projections. I DON’T KNOW! It boggles the mind. 162.75 to 131.29, Nobody Beats The Wiz over Colinoscopy Time.

I’m 6-5 on the year, currently sitting in fifth place in the standings. I have the third-fewest points scored and – more importantly – I have the second-fewest points scored against me.

It wasn’t a 200-point week for me, but it wasn’t awful either. Bad news on the Jameis Winston front: he never played. Instead I was played … for a sap! I mistakenly thought – since he subbed in for Drew Brees the previous week when Brees left the game injured – that Winston would slide right in there and run with the job. Instead, Taysom Hill got the nod, and I was less than ten minutes too late in picking him up after I noticed the announcement. You hate to see it.

But, I was able to slot Kirk Cousins back into my starting lineup and he got me a whopping 32.1 points! A helluva lot better than Carson Wentz’s 16.75 for my bench. Tua, on the other hand, had a really tough day, scoring only 10.15. He was benched by Miami’s coach late in the game, BUT he’s already been reinstated as the starter this week against the Jets. If he doesn’t tear shit up in this one, I’ll officially be worried about his long-term prospects; the Jets are literally THE worst.

I also ended up benching Jerry Jeudy in favor of Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker (who was a free agent, and one of my original draft picks lo those many weeks ago). Jeudy stunk (6.7), but Parker played great (18.1)! A.J. Brown (16.2) had a solid game thanks to a late TD, Ezekiel Elliott (19.4) showed why he’s so great, CEH (20.7) had a rare multi-TD game, and new tight end Dallas Goedert made me proud with 18.7!

As for Colinoscopy Time, he had five guys score less than 7 points apiece; that’s not going to get it done, even with Deshaun Watson leading the way with 38.8.

My only move this week (at press time) was to drop Jameis Winston, because I had to clear room for one of my 49ers receivers to come off IR. I don’t know yet what my other move is going to be (since I have two 49ers receivers on IR, and both could possibly return to action this week), but since I refuse to post this thing on a holiday (and since I refuse to post this thing on Friday, after a whopping three Thanksgiving games have been played), you get to live in a little suspense for a week. Here’s my potential lineup:

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) @ NYJ
  • Carson Wentz (QB) vs. SEA
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ IND
  • DeVante Parker (WR) @ NYJ
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) @ ATL
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) vs. WAS
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) vs. SEA
  • Deebo Samuel (WR) @ LAR
  • Harrison Butker (K) @ TB
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) vs. SF

Again, the choice comes down to Wentz vs. Cousins. Cousins is going up against Carolina, who would probably be the safer play. HOWEVER, it’s my understanding that the Panthers have a pretty awful rush defense (giving up the 6th most fantasy points to running backs), and the Vikings have the world’s greatest running back in Dalvin Cook (who I have in my other league, and is 100% my MVP). So, I kind of anticipate the Vikings giving all of their fantasy love to Cook. This will also be a good week to see if the Seahawks’ defense has indeed turned a corner, or if the last game against the Cardinals was a fluke.

CEH is a no-go because the Chiefs are playing the Bucs, and their rush defense is amazing. Since the Chiefs rarely run the ball as it is, that makes CEH too touchdown-dependant for my tastes. Deebo Samuel isn’t ideal – since he hasn’t played since October 25th due to injury – but I think the 49ers will need to throw the ball a lot, so he could be a target machine in that offense.

I actually like my Miami and Philly players in this one; I think Goedert could have a great game against the Seahawks. I also think my running backs could be poised to carry me a little bit, as I worry about A.J. Brown against that Indy defense. Finally, this could be the game where my kicker busts out (since Tampa’s defense should HOPEFULLY force the Chiefs into attempting a few field goals, instead of ONLY touchdowns every single scoring drive). And, I’m pretty high on the Rams’ defense against the 49ers (especially at home, where the Rams are often much better than on the road, even in these fanless COVID times).

Since I don’t totally hate my matchups, WATCH ME SHIT THE BED! I’m going up against Korky Butchek, who really fucking destroyed me in Week 3. He just lost his franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow, so he’s reeling a little bit, but as you’ll see there’s plenty of talent left over:

  • Jared Goff (QB) vs. SF
  • Drew Lock (QB) vs. NO
  • Diontae Johnson (WR) vs. BAL
  • D.J. Moore (WR) @ MIN
  • James Robinson (RB) vs. CLE
  • Raheem Mostert (RB) @ LAR
  • Jonnu Smith (TE) @ IND
  • DeAndre Hopkins (WR) @ NE
  • Matt Prater (K) vs. HOU
  • Tampa Bay (DEF) vs. KC

I’m just assuming he’ll insert Mostert over Zack Moss (who he currently has in his lineup), because Mostert is 150 times better (plus he’s someone I’m counting on in my other league, so of course he’ll come back to bite me in the ass here). I’m also half-expecting Korky to find an alternate defense, because I can’t imagine why anyone in his right mind would start a defense going up against the Chiefs.

I don’t totally love any of his matchups, really. Lock against the Saints looks like a nightmare. Goff is always a 3-INT game waiting to happen. Baltimore’s secondary is pretty solid. Cleveland’s defense is pretty stout up front. And if Stephon Gilmore follows Hopkins all over the field, that could be a long day for someone who is always a fantasy stud. D.J. Moore against the Vikings is probably his best matchup, but the Panthers have two other really good receivers they love to throw to, and you never know who’s going to be left in the lurch on that team on any given Sunday.

That being said, I can envision a scenario where any or all of those guys have great games (okay, probably not Lock). Don’t think I’m not supremely irritated he’s got Jonnu Smith and I’ve got A.J. Brown; I can’t see more than one of those guys having a good game against the Colts (my money’s on Smith).

Korky and I are two of the worst teams in the league (he’s one of only two teams that have scored fewer points than me this season. The difference between my 6-5 record and his 4-7 is … quite honestly bad luck! He actually has the FEWEST points scored against him, which is kinda mindblowing. It wouldn’t shock me to see the both of us duking it out in the Consolation Bracket for a #1 overall seed next year. If he beats me this week, that’ll open the door for the surging Sausage Shaped Pest to claim my spot in the 6-team playoffs. Sausage Shaped Pest is 5-6, but has almost 50 more points than me; if he beats Space Forcin’ and I lose, we’ll be tied in record, with one week to go in the regular season.

Who should I happen to play next week? Sausage Shaped Pest, of course! So, even if he stays within a game of me (meaning we both win, or we both lose), it’ll all come down to next week’s outcome. I would need to win and him to lose this week for me to clinch one of the final playoff spots. Pray for me! Pray for Nobody Beats The Wiz!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua Infinity & Beyond!

I mean, this is getting pretty silly. If I were anyone else in the league, I’d be FURIOUS right now at the undeserved success of Nobody Beats The Wiz. My 141.91 to 126.20 victory over Crazy N8’s Prostates takes me to 5-5 on the season, which is currently good for sixth place in the standings (the sixth and final playoff spot, if the season ended today). This is in spite of the fact that I have the third-fewest total points scored (1,495.74), and two people on the outside looking in have outscored me. Every other player in the playoffs with me have AT LEAST 85 more points. Crazy N8’s Prostates, for example, is a team I’ve somehow managed to defeat twice this season; he has 255 more points than me! It’s utter lunacy.

How did I win? Well, Crazy N8’s Prostates underscored his projections by over 45 points. Done and done. Drew Brees was injured before he could get to 10 points. After Josh Allen’s 30.2 points, his next-highest scorer was Kareem Hunt with 16.2. Four of his players scored in single-digits.

Meanwhile, it was more or less a team effort on Nobody Beats The Wiz’s part. Josh Jacobs blew up with almost 30 points. Brandon Aiyuk had almost 20. Tua didn’t have the best game, but just got over 20 points in a solid effort. Only two of my guys scored in single digits; everyone else was in the 10-14 range.

Which includes Carson Wentz at 10.8. This is two games in a row (with a BYE week in the middle) where he has COMBINED for less than 20 points, against really inferior competition. Kirk Cousins, meanwhile, had a vastly superior defense to go up against and scored over 22 points for my bench. My friend asked me over the weekend who my four keepers would be for next year, if I had to choose now (which, thankfully, I do not). He asked if Wentz would be one of them, and right now I have to say no! He’s not even close! I’ll be watching all of my receivers for that fourth and final keeper spot (for now, it’s Tua, Ezekiel Elliott, and Josh Jacobs as the top three, with A.J. Brown holding down the 4-spot). I might take Wentz as a flier for my third quarterback job next year, but I can safely say I’ll be in the market for a new second QB.

In Last Week Roster Move News, I picked up Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders before my game, dropping Noah Fant (who was picked up by Sloane N Steady, who started him and got all of 4.8 points for his efforts). Dallas Goedert didn’t do a whole helluva lot better for me, with 7.3, but I blame Wentz for ALL of that.

In Waiver Wire News, I got up to the #3 priority heading into this week. So, I decided to use that to my advantage. Jameis Winston figures to be getting starter’s snaps in Drew Brees’ absence the next few weeks, so I decided to put in a claim for him. Why not? If he can help me in the short term, maybe that’ll be enough to help me crack the playoffs. Since Jameis is only a temporary rental, I don’t think I had a lot of competition for his services, but I bet Crazy N8 sure is annoyed! Considering he just traded for Brees a few weeks back and for the simple fact that he’s an easy guy to annoy in general; maybe NEXT time he’ll take my trade offer more seriously!

Did I also grab Jameis out of spite and am now needlessly hogging four viable quarterbacks for no good reason? WHO’S TO SAY?!

My opponent this week is Colinoscopy Time. He is 7-3, in second place in the league, and has scored the fourth-most points (91 more points than me on the season). As probably the guy least-invested in fantasy football – and anything Internet/technology-related in general – it’s infuriating that he not only won the trophy last year, but is continuing to rampage through our league in spite of all that is good and decent in the world, but, you know, that’s how it works sometimes. Here are the guys I’ll be playing, in hopes of slowing down the juggernaut:

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) @ DEN
  • Jameis Winston (QB) vs. ATL
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ BAL
  • Jerry Jeudy (WR) vs. MIA
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) vs. KC
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ MIN
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) @ CLE
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) @ LV
  • Harrison Butker (K) @ LV
  • Indianapolis (DEF) vs. GB

These are some underwhelming matchups. My favorite one is probably Jameis, but I’m not even 100% confident that he’ll actually be the starter! The Saints could always throw Taysom Hill in there if they really wanted to fuck with me. Even if Jameis does start, he will have had exactly one week of practice to prepare; plus he’s notorious for turning the ball over millions of times. Could be dicey. Otherwise, I’m hoping Zeke comes back looking fresh and sharp against the Vikings, but I won’t be holding my breath.

I’ll say this about my quarterbacks, if I were at all impartial, I’d be starting Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL) over Tua, because the Cowboys’ defense is ALMOST as bad as it gets (thank you, Seahawks). My only reservation is really to preserve my sanity. If Tua stinks, whatever, it’s kind of to be expected; he’s making the third start of his career, it’s on the road, a mile above sea level, and Denver’s defense is a little underrated. BUT, if Kirk Cousins stinks, and I start him over Tua, I’m going to be FURIOUS with myself for backing the underwhelming, low-ceiling play over the exciting should-be centerpiece of my team for the next decade. I learned this lesson last year; every time I sat Danny Dimes in a matchup I thought was tough, he ended up scoring 40 points for my bench. I’m not going through that again! Also, not for nothing, but I could see the Vikings running the ball 40 times, with Dalvin Cook scoring another 30 fantasy points.

The 49ers being on BYE this week hurts me and my opponent equally. I catch an extra little break by dodging Stefon Diggs. But, as you’ll see below, he has MORE than enough talent to mop the floor with me:

  • Deshaun Watson (QB) vs. NE
  • Ben Roethlisberger (QB) @ JAX
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) vs. ARI
  • Jakeem Grant (WR) @ DEN
  • Derrick Henry (RB) @ BAL
  • D’Andre Swift (RB) @ CAR
  • Robert Tonyan (TE) @ IND
  • Jakobi Meyers (WR) @ HOU
  • Zane Gonzalez (K) @ SEA
  • Minnesota (DEF) vs. DAL

Great quarterbacks, elite running backs (Swift is getting better every week, it seems), Metcalf is sure to have a HUGE bounce-back game after being largely ignored last week, Meyers looks like the only viable offensive weapon for the Pats. There’s just a lot to like about this squad.

How many times can I keep lucking out by my opponents under-performing? Yet, it’s my only play; it’s the only way I can seemingly win games! So, hopefully, it continues to happen the rest of the year, because I need all the help I can get.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua The Window, Tua The Wall!!!

SKEET SKEET MOTHERFUCKERS!!! I am ROCK-HARD right now! All praise to Tua (and Sloane N Steady for waiving him, and the rest of the league for leaving him to me to pick up). My fuckin’ fantasy quarterback troubles are over (well, half over; damn Wentz). I don’t even care that I won! Not really, anyway (okay, I do care); I’m just happy Tua got me 27.9 points and looked good on the road against a frisky Cardinals defense. It’s not even that great of a performance, but it shows we’re scratching the surface of his potential, and THAT is what’s got my loins ablaze at the moment with the intensity of a thousand suns. Fuckin’ Tua, y’all! Let’s get this!

Once again, it helped my chances to have my opponent vastly underperform his projections, but a win is a win and I’ve been on the other side of this PLENTY of times in my storied fantasy football career. That being said, my 168.00 points is nothing to sneeze at! It’s on the higher side of average (and plenty to beat Beasts’ 138.50). It’s actually my second-highest output this season, which is sort of alarming (I don’t see any 200-point games in my future this year), but makes sense if you’ve been following along.

On top of Tua’s remarkable performance, Kirk Cousins was even better with 29! On top of that, my starting receivers – Jerry Jeudy and A.J. Brown – scored 25.5 and 20.1 respectively (Brown did indeed continue his streak of scoring at least one touchdown!). There wasn’t really a dud in the bunch, though my 3-headed running back hydra all scored in the 11-14 range which is just so-so. I didn’t get enough of a boost from the Washington defense to really make them worth picking up in the first place (somehow, the Giants and Daniel Jones managed to NOT turn the ball over for the first time all season, the one week I needed them to of course), but in the end it didn’t matter.

Speaking of Jerry Jeudy, I’m finding him to be a really interesting mid-season find for my roster, not just as a potential keeper, but as a potential Starting Wide Receiver alongside A.J. Brown. As a rookie, Jeudy clearly had the best game of his career this past week, which is giving me pause, as I had intended him to be a one-game plug-and-play. I wouldn’t have even picked him up at all if Brandon Aiyuk wasn’t placed on the COVID list! But, Jeudy has 24 targets in his last two games. Now, the downside is, obviously, Denver’s quarterback situation. It’s not good. But, Drew Lock is CLEARLY better than his backups, and they can somewhat move the ball when he’s in there. I can’t tell if Lock is good yet (as I absolutely refuse to watch Broncos games because they’re so boring), but he might be. And I think Jeudy has the potential to be this year’s A.J. Brown (who, down the stretch LAST year as a rookie, really dominated for a lot of really good fantasy teams). So, I think I’m going to hang onto Jeudy and start him for a while, because his matchups the rest of the way are pretty solid. And, if he kills it, my wide receiver spot is locked cold!

Beasts got a huge boost from the return of Christian McCaffery (37.1), but Russell Wilson obviously had a tough game, and Justin Herbert was the only other player on his team to hit double-digits. Everyone else was under 10.

Before the weekend was finished, I made a roster move, picking up Dallas Goedert, who is healthy and the primary tight end (at the moment) for Carson Wentz and the Eagles. Noah Fant is not so reliable for me; he keeps getting injured (missing some snaps this past week after an early big gainer, never really picking things up from there) and he’s on an offense (again with the Broncos) that can struggle to move the ball. Goedert is a legitimate Top 10 tight end when healthy, on an offense that LOVES to throw to its tight ends (especially in the red zone). As long as Zach Ertz is out, Goedert is a phenomenal pick-up for me.

To make room, I officially had to abandon the Daniel Jones experiment. He went from keeper (and hopeful fantasy franchise quarterback), to on the waiver wire in half a season. What a disgrace! Both for him and for me! But, I mean, you can’t keep banging your head against the wall when something isn’t working. I have Cousins now and he’s a much more reliable third QB. Tua is the future! Dimes was a mistake.

More roster moves needed to be made, as it appeared I had two wide receivers coming off of the IR in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. My first drop went to the Washington defense. I had three on my roster last week and that’s about two too many (but I’ll never drop the Rams’ defense, as they’ve got solid matchups coming up this season).

As of press time, I haven’t officially made the other move I need to make, because I still have up until Sunday morning. You never know who’s going to get tagged with a COVID designation for the week, so I don’t want to go dropping anyone before I have to. If I do end up needing to drop someone, it’s going to be Noah Fant. I have no use for two tight ends on my roster and if Goedert ends up getting hurt again, I’ll just pick up someone else. Fant isn’t even a top ten tight end – though he’s been a relatively consistent high-floor/low-ceiling guy – so I don’t mind streaming tight ends the rest of the year if I need to.

My concern is: my kicker is on a BYE this week. Harrison Butker hasn’t been the world-beater I expected (I REALLY regret taking him over Justin Tucker two rounds before the final round, where most people draft their kickers); he’s ranked 14th in our league this season. The Chiefs predominantly score touchdowns because they have an elite offense, which was to be expected, but he hasn’t been hitting as many 50+ yarders as I thought he would, and he’s annoyingly missed the most PATs in football, that have taken points AWAY from his total! But, I don’t want to just fucking lose him for nothing, because I know as soon as I drop him, he’s going to go off for some games in the high teens. So, I’ll be waiting until the last minute to pick up a replacement kicker; the guy I end up dropping to do THAT will be TBD.

This week, I go up against Crazy N8’s Prostates, the guy I improbably defeated in Week 1, as well as the guy who just traded for Drew Brees and Julio Jones. He’s currently 4th in the standings, yet has far-and-away scored the most points. Here’s what Nobody Beats The Wiz is looking at starting:

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) vs. LAC
  • Carson Wentz (QB) @ NYG
  • A.J. Brown (WR) vs. IND
  • Jerry Jeudy (WR) @ LV
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) vs. DEN
  • Chase Edmonds (RB) vs. BUF
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) @ NYG
  • Brandon Aiyuk (WR) @ NO
  • TBD (K) vs. TBD
  • Indianapolis (DEF) @ TEN

Pretty easy choice with the quarterbacks, as Kirk Cousins is playing a stout Bears defense on Monday Night Football. I expect that game to be low scoring, and it wouldn’t shock me to see Cousins turn the ball over a lot. Also a no-brainer for my starting wide receivers, as Brown is a Must Start and Jeudy might be heading that way. It’s a no-brainer for my running backs as well, because Ezekiel Elliott and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both on BYEs. My FLEX spot is still up in the air, as there’s a rumor that Deebo Samuel might be healthy this week. If he is, he’s my guy over Aiyuk. However, with the 49ers scheduled to have a BYE next week, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them rest Deebo one more week before bringing him back super fresh. As for my defense, I don’t love the matchup, but I can’t play the Rams against my Seahawks, even if Aaron Donald alone will probably get three sacks and they could have a field day if Wilson continues to turn the ball over like he’s been doing.

I’m catching some more good BYE-week luck with Crazy N8’s Prostates, as both Julio Jones and Travis Kelce are out this week. As you’ll see, though, he has replacements more than capable of filling their shoes:

  • Josh Allen (QB) @ ARI
  • Drew Brees (QB) vs. SF
  • Allen Robinson (WR) vs. MIN
  • Robert Woods (WR) vs. SEA
  • James Conner (RB) vs. CIN
  • Aaron Jones (RB) vs. JAX
  • Eric Ebron (TE) vs. CIN
  • Keenan Allen (WR) @ MIA
  • Justin Tucker (K) @ NE
  • Green Bay (DEF) vs. JAX

He has some of the SICKEST matchups this week. I mean, Robert Woods alone – against our inept Seahawks defense – is just a nightmare. But, all his receivers should do great, his running backs might score three TDs apiece, his quarterbacks will certainly be fine, and I bet Baltimore kicks a lot of field goals against the Patriots on the road. He’s even got an elite defensive matchup (I should know, I picked up the Packers this week in my other league, where I should reiterate I am CRUSHING it).

Nobody Beats The Wiz is going to need to WILDLY outscore projections. This would be, probably, the most perfect time to net my first 200-point week of the season.

At 4-5, I’m in 7th place in the league, JUST on the outside-looking-in at the playoffs. I now have the third-fewest total points, having leapfrogged Korky Butchek for the honor. Now that everyone has played everyone once, we officially have a season that will count in the record books; if COVID officially ruins everything … well, I won’t have my name on the trophy, that’s for damn sure.

That having been said, I don’t expect the season to ever shut down completely. I have four weeks to make up ground. If I get lucky, my final two regular season games could be against my direct competition for the 6th and final spot in the playoffs. I technically have control of my own destiny; if I win out, I will definitely make the post-season. But, come on, let’s not go overboard here.

One week at a time. Let’s go 2-0 against Crazy N8! Wouldn’t that be something?

Is This Where The Seahawks Start To Take Their Season To The Next Level?

We talk about it all the time: the Seahawks are excellent closers. They tend to play pretty well at the end of games, and they tend to play pretty well at the end of seasons.

In futzing around with Pro Football Reference, I discovered that the Seahawks aren’t quite as elite as we think they are in one-score (8 points or less) regular season games in the Russell Wilson era, with a record of 36-32-1. But, nevertheless, Wilson has built his career on end-of-game comebacks, so the reputation is born.

That record is actually more in line with conventional thinking: over the long haul, most teams are usually around .500 in close games (be it the one-score variety in football, one-run games in baseball, or basketball games that finish within 3 points).

This year, the Seahawks are 8-2 overall, and 7-1 in one-score games. So, the fear would be (as they talked about on the Brock & Salk podcast this past week) the dreaded Regression To The Mean. If you expect most teams to be right around .500 in these situations, then you might expect a rash of one-score losses to be coming in these final six games. But, as everyone always talks about, it’s such a small sample size in football of 16 regular season games; therefore anomalies abound. So, if this year the Seahawks are an anomaly, maybe that regression hits in 2020; but of course, there’s so much turnover in the NFL that it’s effectively an entirely new team from year to year, so I don’t really know how much regression will play into this at all.

TL;DR: it’s all a fucking crapshoot.

The more interesting thing is how the Seahawks finish their seasons in the Russell Wilson Era. From Week 11 through Week 17, the Seahawks are 34-13 in this span, which is absolutely phenomenal. I don’t know where that ranks among all the teams in the NFL, but that’s a .723 winning percentage (whereas overall, the Seahawks have a regular season winning percentage of only .674 since Russell Wilson joined the team). So, there’s just no arguing that overall, the Seahawks are a better team closing out the year than they are to start.

Now, of course, 2016 and 2017 weren’t great, but pobody’s nerfect.

Anyway, here we are, closing out the month of November. Coming off of our BYE week. Hitting the road, going to Philly, who’s coming off of a difficult loss to the Patriots last Sunday. Shit’s getting real for everyone. The Seahawks are one game behind the 49ers for the division lead, and we’re tied with Green Bay and New Orleans in the conference standings. How we wrap up these final six games will determine if we’re in the playoffs or not, as well as if we’re division winners, or even in the Top 2 in the NFC. Our very championship hopes and dreams hinge on these final regular season games.

If you thought our game against the 49ers was intense, just you wait.

Which brings me back to the other point made on Brock & Salk: the infamous point differential. The Seahawks are only +21, which is more in line with a 5-4-1 record than it is the one we have now. As we’ve seen with recent Mariners seasons (when they were improbably contending for a wild card spot, not 2019), the chickens come home to roost over the long haul if you’ve got a great record and a mediocre point/run differential. But, again, as I just got done talking about: small NFL sample sizes.

Also: the Seahawks have Russell Wilson and you guys don’t.

If this is the time of year where the Russell Wilson-led Seahawks traditionally start picking things up (which we’ve established that it is), and these 2019 Seahawks continue that trend (which we all pray that they do), then we should start seeing some more lopsided scores in our favor, to push that point-differential out to a more respectable number. So we’re NOT having to rely on all of these close, one-score games!

Unfortunately, the opponents don’t get any easier, and that starts with Philly this weekend. Sure, the Eagles are only 5-5, and their only path to the playoffs appears to be a divisional battle with the 6-4 Cowboys, but they’re a quality, veteran team with good coaching that’s had recent success in the playoffs and Super Bowl; this is a team that also generally finishes their seasons better than they start them.

Kind of an unstoppable force against an immovable object situation.

The 2019 Eagles thus far have been – to my fantasy dismay – pretty underwhelming on defense, particularly in the secondary where they’ve been shredded by most teams they’ve played. Until last week (when I conveniently traded for Tom Brady in fantasy, of course), when they held the Pats in check and generally made life miserable for them on offense. Of course, the Eagles have also been pretty underwhelming on offense this year (last week was no exception), but then again so have the Seahawks on defense.

Until that 49ers game. So, which Seahawks defense will we be getting the rest of the way? Will it be from the first nine weeks? Or, the vastly improved unit we saw in Santa Clara a couple Mondays ago?

If that’s the defense we get, I think this Sunday’s game against the Eagles will be no contest. But, if our defense reverts back to sucking, and the Eagles’ defense keeps up what they started last week (which was, for them, coming off of a BYE, where presumably key guys had since gotten healthy on that side of the ball), then this game is going to be a lot closer – and a lot more difficult to win – than we’ve come to expect.

This game is no sure thing, in other words. Also: what else is new?

The Eagles started out this week as 2.5-point favorites. That line has since moved to 1.5; nevertheless it feels wrong for them to be favored. I don’t think Vegas quite trusts that the Seahawks’ defense has turned a corner, and I don’t blame ’em.

The Eagles are hurting at receiver. Honestly, believe what their fans say when they rant on Twitter about how they let Josh Gordon fall to us, because they definitely could use him (and definitely could afford him). Nevertheless, they’re quite strong at tight end, and that’s where the Seahawks’ defense tends to be weakest. I would expect big games out of both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. They’re also banged up at running back, but Miles Sanders has the potential to be special. Carson Wentz isn’t my favorite fantasy quarterback at the moment, but he’s as capable as anyone (you have to at least put him in the top half of all QBs from a talent perspective, which is plenty good enough to beat this defense, even when we’re rolling).

I nevertheless would expect the Seahawks to win this game. I picked them in my weekly pick ’em contest, and if I were in a sportsbook I’d put a decent amount of money on us to win on the moneyline. I never know what to expect out of a Seahawks game, but this should prove to be a solid indicator of things to come. If the Seahawks win in a rout, then the End Of Season Roll should be in full effect. We should see a drastic improvement in our point-differential, and could make a serious charge at one of the top two seeds in the NFC. If the Seahawks win a tight one, then maybe that’s just who this team is, and they’ll have to continue to pull these nailbiters out of their collective asses to get us to where we want them to be by season’s end.

And, if the Seahawks lose … all bets are off. I don’t want to even think about what might happen if that’s the case. Like a rock n’ roller with no backup plan: it’s either the bigtime, or dead in a ditch; there is no Plan B (which, in this case, would be sneaking into the playoffs as a wildcard and losing in the first round in Dallas like last year).