Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua Err Is Human

  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE – Here We Fucking Go Again
  • Pre-Season Week 2 HERE – Corona-Draft Prep
  • Fantasy Draft HERE – Nobody Beats The Wiz!
  • Week 1 HERE – Crisis Averted!
  • Week 2 HERE – Everything That Could Go Wrong
  • Week 3 HERE – Some Nobody Did, In Fact, Beat The Wiz!
  • Week 4 HERE – Literally Everyone Beats The Fucking Wiz
  • Week 5 HERE – Signs Of Life!
  • Week 6 HERE – And Tua All A Good Night
  • Week 7 HERE – Tua Be Or Not Tua Be, That Is The Question
  • Week 8 HERE – Tua Thine Own Self Be True
  • Week 9 HERE – Tua The Window, Tua The Wall!!!
  • Week 10 HERE – Tua Infinity & Beyond!

Again, I just want to say: I don’t know how I’m doing this. I don’t know how I’m still winning games. I don’t know WHY these opponents of mine keep underperforming their projections. I DON’T KNOW! It boggles the mind. 162.75 to 131.29, Nobody Beats The Wiz over Colinoscopy Time.

I’m 6-5 on the year, currently sitting in fifth place in the standings. I have the third-fewest points scored and – more importantly – I have the second-fewest points scored against me.

It wasn’t a 200-point week for me, but it wasn’t awful either. Bad news on the Jameis Winston front: he never played. Instead I was played … for a sap! I mistakenly thought – since he subbed in for Drew Brees the previous week when Brees left the game injured – that Winston would slide right in there and run with the job. Instead, Taysom Hill got the nod, and I was less than ten minutes too late in picking him up after I noticed the announcement. You hate to see it.

But, I was able to slot Kirk Cousins back into my starting lineup and he got me a whopping 32.1 points! A helluva lot better than Carson Wentz’s 16.75 for my bench. Tua, on the other hand, had a really tough day, scoring only 10.15. He was benched by Miami’s coach late in the game, BUT he’s already been reinstated as the starter this week against the Jets. If he doesn’t tear shit up in this one, I’ll officially be worried about his long-term prospects; the Jets are literally THE worst.

I also ended up benching Jerry Jeudy in favor of Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker (who was a free agent, and one of my original draft picks lo those many weeks ago). Jeudy stunk (6.7), but Parker played great (18.1)! A.J. Brown (16.2) had a solid game thanks to a late TD, Ezekiel Elliott (19.4) showed why he’s so great, CEH (20.7) had a rare multi-TD game, and new tight end Dallas Goedert made me proud with 18.7!

As for Colinoscopy Time, he had five guys score less than 7 points apiece; that’s not going to get it done, even with Deshaun Watson leading the way with 38.8.

My only move this week (at press time) was to drop Jameis Winston, because I had to clear room for one of my 49ers receivers to come off IR. I don’t know yet what my other move is going to be (since I have two 49ers receivers on IR, and both could possibly return to action this week), but since I refuse to post this thing on a holiday (and since I refuse to post this thing on Friday, after a whopping three Thanksgiving games have been played), you get to live in a little suspense for a week. Here’s my potential lineup:

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) @ NYJ
  • Carson Wentz (QB) vs. SEA
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ IND
  • DeVante Parker (WR) @ NYJ
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) @ ATL
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) vs. WAS
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) vs. SEA
  • Deebo Samuel (WR) @ LAR
  • Harrison Butker (K) @ TB
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) vs. SF

Again, the choice comes down to Wentz vs. Cousins. Cousins is going up against Carolina, who would probably be the safer play. HOWEVER, it’s my understanding that the Panthers have a pretty awful rush defense (giving up the 6th most fantasy points to running backs), and the Vikings have the world’s greatest running back in Dalvin Cook (who I have in my other league, and is 100% my MVP). So, I kind of anticipate the Vikings giving all of their fantasy love to Cook. This will also be a good week to see if the Seahawks’ defense has indeed turned a corner, or if the last game against the Cardinals was a fluke.

CEH is a no-go because the Chiefs are playing the Bucs, and their rush defense is amazing. Since the Chiefs rarely run the ball as it is, that makes CEH too touchdown-dependant for my tastes. Deebo Samuel isn’t ideal – since he hasn’t played since October 25th due to injury – but I think the 49ers will need to throw the ball a lot, so he could be a target machine in that offense.

I actually like my Miami and Philly players in this one; I think Goedert could have a great game against the Seahawks. I also think my running backs could be poised to carry me a little bit, as I worry about A.J. Brown against that Indy defense. Finally, this could be the game where my kicker busts out (since Tampa’s defense should HOPEFULLY force the Chiefs into attempting a few field goals, instead of ONLY touchdowns every single scoring drive). And, I’m pretty high on the Rams’ defense against the 49ers (especially at home, where the Rams are often much better than on the road, even in these fanless COVID times).

Since I don’t totally hate my matchups, WATCH ME SHIT THE BED! I’m going up against Korky Butchek, who really fucking destroyed me in Week 3. He just lost his franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow, so he’s reeling a little bit, but as you’ll see there’s plenty of talent left over:

  • Jared Goff (QB) vs. SF
  • Drew Lock (QB) vs. NO
  • Diontae Johnson (WR) vs. BAL
  • D.J. Moore (WR) @ MIN
  • James Robinson (RB) vs. CLE
  • Raheem Mostert (RB) @ LAR
  • Jonnu Smith (TE) @ IND
  • DeAndre Hopkins (WR) @ NE
  • Matt Prater (K) vs. HOU
  • Tampa Bay (DEF) vs. KC

I’m just assuming he’ll insert Mostert over Zack Moss (who he currently has in his lineup), because Mostert is 150 times better (plus he’s someone I’m counting on in my other league, so of course he’ll come back to bite me in the ass here). I’m also half-expecting Korky to find an alternate defense, because I can’t imagine why anyone in his right mind would start a defense going up against the Chiefs.

I don’t totally love any of his matchups, really. Lock against the Saints looks like a nightmare. Goff is always a 3-INT game waiting to happen. Baltimore’s secondary is pretty solid. Cleveland’s defense is pretty stout up front. And if Stephon Gilmore follows Hopkins all over the field, that could be a long day for someone who is always a fantasy stud. D.J. Moore against the Vikings is probably his best matchup, but the Panthers have two other really good receivers they love to throw to, and you never know who’s going to be left in the lurch on that team on any given Sunday.

That being said, I can envision a scenario where any or all of those guys have great games (okay, probably not Lock). Don’t think I’m not supremely irritated he’s got Jonnu Smith and I’ve got A.J. Brown; I can’t see more than one of those guys having a good game against the Colts (my money’s on Smith).

Korky and I are two of the worst teams in the league (he’s one of only two teams that have scored fewer points than me this season. The difference between my 6-5 record and his 4-7 is … quite honestly bad luck! He actually has the FEWEST points scored against him, which is kinda mindblowing. It wouldn’t shock me to see the both of us duking it out in the Consolation Bracket for a #1 overall seed next year. If he beats me this week, that’ll open the door for the surging Sausage Shaped Pest to claim my spot in the 6-team playoffs. Sausage Shaped Pest is 5-6, but has almost 50 more points than me; if he beats Space Forcin’ and I lose, we’ll be tied in record, with one week to go in the regular season.

Who should I happen to play next week? Sausage Shaped Pest, of course! So, even if he stays within a game of me (meaning we both win, or we both lose), it’ll all come down to next week’s outcome. I would need to win and him to lose this week for me to clinch one of the final playoff spots. Pray for me! Pray for Nobody Beats The Wiz!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua Infinity & Beyond!

I mean, this is getting pretty silly. If I were anyone else in the league, I’d be FURIOUS right now at the undeserved success of Nobody Beats The Wiz. My 141.91 to 126.20 victory over Crazy N8’s Prostates takes me to 5-5 on the season, which is currently good for sixth place in the standings (the sixth and final playoff spot, if the season ended today). This is in spite of the fact that I have the third-fewest total points scored (1,495.74), and two people on the outside looking in have outscored me. Every other player in the playoffs with me have AT LEAST 85 more points. Crazy N8’s Prostates, for example, is a team I’ve somehow managed to defeat twice this season; he has 255 more points than me! It’s utter lunacy.

How did I win? Well, Crazy N8’s Prostates underscored his projections by over 45 points. Done and done. Drew Brees was injured before he could get to 10 points. After Josh Allen’s 30.2 points, his next-highest scorer was Kareem Hunt with 16.2. Four of his players scored in single-digits.

Meanwhile, it was more or less a team effort on Nobody Beats The Wiz’s part. Josh Jacobs blew up with almost 30 points. Brandon Aiyuk had almost 20. Tua didn’t have the best game, but just got over 20 points in a solid effort. Only two of my guys scored in single digits; everyone else was in the 10-14 range.

Which includes Carson Wentz at 10.8. This is two games in a row (with a BYE week in the middle) where he has COMBINED for less than 20 points, against really inferior competition. Kirk Cousins, meanwhile, had a vastly superior defense to go up against and scored over 22 points for my bench. My friend asked me over the weekend who my four keepers would be for next year, if I had to choose now (which, thankfully, I do not). He asked if Wentz would be one of them, and right now I have to say no! He’s not even close! I’ll be watching all of my receivers for that fourth and final keeper spot (for now, it’s Tua, Ezekiel Elliott, and Josh Jacobs as the top three, with A.J. Brown holding down the 4-spot). I might take Wentz as a flier for my third quarterback job next year, but I can safely say I’ll be in the market for a new second QB.

In Last Week Roster Move News, I picked up Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders before my game, dropping Noah Fant (who was picked up by Sloane N Steady, who started him and got all of 4.8 points for his efforts). Dallas Goedert didn’t do a whole helluva lot better for me, with 7.3, but I blame Wentz for ALL of that.

In Waiver Wire News, I got up to the #3 priority heading into this week. So, I decided to use that to my advantage. Jameis Winston figures to be getting starter’s snaps in Drew Brees’ absence the next few weeks, so I decided to put in a claim for him. Why not? If he can help me in the short term, maybe that’ll be enough to help me crack the playoffs. Since Jameis is only a temporary rental, I don’t think I had a lot of competition for his services, but I bet Crazy N8 sure is annoyed! Considering he just traded for Brees a few weeks back and for the simple fact that he’s an easy guy to annoy in general; maybe NEXT time he’ll take my trade offer more seriously!

Did I also grab Jameis out of spite and am now needlessly hogging four viable quarterbacks for no good reason? WHO’S TO SAY?!

My opponent this week is Colinoscopy Time. He is 7-3, in second place in the league, and has scored the fourth-most points (91 more points than me on the season). As probably the guy least-invested in fantasy football – and anything Internet/technology-related in general – it’s infuriating that he not only won the trophy last year, but is continuing to rampage through our league in spite of all that is good and decent in the world, but, you know, that’s how it works sometimes. Here are the guys I’ll be playing, in hopes of slowing down the juggernaut:

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) @ DEN
  • Jameis Winston (QB) vs. ATL
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ BAL
  • Jerry Jeudy (WR) vs. MIA
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) vs. KC
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ MIN
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) @ CLE
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) @ LV
  • Harrison Butker (K) @ LV
  • Indianapolis (DEF) vs. GB

These are some underwhelming matchups. My favorite one is probably Jameis, but I’m not even 100% confident that he’ll actually be the starter! The Saints could always throw Taysom Hill in there if they really wanted to fuck with me. Even if Jameis does start, he will have had exactly one week of practice to prepare; plus he’s notorious for turning the ball over millions of times. Could be dicey. Otherwise, I’m hoping Zeke comes back looking fresh and sharp against the Vikings, but I won’t be holding my breath.

I’ll say this about my quarterbacks, if I were at all impartial, I’d be starting Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL) over Tua, because the Cowboys’ defense is ALMOST as bad as it gets (thank you, Seahawks). My only reservation is really to preserve my sanity. If Tua stinks, whatever, it’s kind of to be expected; he’s making the third start of his career, it’s on the road, a mile above sea level, and Denver’s defense is a little underrated. BUT, if Kirk Cousins stinks, and I start him over Tua, I’m going to be FURIOUS with myself for backing the underwhelming, low-ceiling play over the exciting should-be centerpiece of my team for the next decade. I learned this lesson last year; every time I sat Danny Dimes in a matchup I thought was tough, he ended up scoring 40 points for my bench. I’m not going through that again! Also, not for nothing, but I could see the Vikings running the ball 40 times, with Dalvin Cook scoring another 30 fantasy points.

The 49ers being on BYE this week hurts me and my opponent equally. I catch an extra little break by dodging Stefon Diggs. But, as you’ll see below, he has MORE than enough talent to mop the floor with me:

  • Deshaun Watson (QB) vs. NE
  • Ben Roethlisberger (QB) @ JAX
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) vs. ARI
  • Jakeem Grant (WR) @ DEN
  • Derrick Henry (RB) @ BAL
  • D’Andre Swift (RB) @ CAR
  • Robert Tonyan (TE) @ IND
  • Jakobi Meyers (WR) @ HOU
  • Zane Gonzalez (K) @ SEA
  • Minnesota (DEF) vs. DAL

Great quarterbacks, elite running backs (Swift is getting better every week, it seems), Metcalf is sure to have a HUGE bounce-back game after being largely ignored last week, Meyers looks like the only viable offensive weapon for the Pats. There’s just a lot to like about this squad.

How many times can I keep lucking out by my opponents under-performing? Yet, it’s my only play; it’s the only way I can seemingly win games! So, hopefully, it continues to happen the rest of the year, because I need all the help I can get.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua The Window, Tua The Wall!!!

SKEET SKEET MOTHERFUCKERS!!! I am ROCK-HARD right now! All praise to Tua (and Sloane N Steady for waiving him, and the rest of the league for leaving him to me to pick up). My fuckin’ fantasy quarterback troubles are over (well, half over; damn Wentz). I don’t even care that I won! Not really, anyway (okay, I do care); I’m just happy Tua got me 27.9 points and looked good on the road against a frisky Cardinals defense. It’s not even that great of a performance, but it shows we’re scratching the surface of his potential, and THAT is what’s got my loins ablaze at the moment with the intensity of a thousand suns. Fuckin’ Tua, y’all! Let’s get this!

Once again, it helped my chances to have my opponent vastly underperform his projections, but a win is a win and I’ve been on the other side of this PLENTY of times in my storied fantasy football career. That being said, my 168.00 points is nothing to sneeze at! It’s on the higher side of average (and plenty to beat Beasts’ 138.50). It’s actually my second-highest output this season, which is sort of alarming (I don’t see any 200-point games in my future this year), but makes sense if you’ve been following along.

On top of Tua’s remarkable performance, Kirk Cousins was even better with 29! On top of that, my starting receivers – Jerry Jeudy and A.J. Brown – scored 25.5 and 20.1 respectively (Brown did indeed continue his streak of scoring at least one touchdown!). There wasn’t really a dud in the bunch, though my 3-headed running back hydra all scored in the 11-14 range which is just so-so. I didn’t get enough of a boost from the Washington defense to really make them worth picking up in the first place (somehow, the Giants and Daniel Jones managed to NOT turn the ball over for the first time all season, the one week I needed them to of course), but in the end it didn’t matter.

Speaking of Jerry Jeudy, I’m finding him to be a really interesting mid-season find for my roster, not just as a potential keeper, but as a potential Starting Wide Receiver alongside A.J. Brown. As a rookie, Jeudy clearly had the best game of his career this past week, which is giving me pause, as I had intended him to be a one-game plug-and-play. I wouldn’t have even picked him up at all if Brandon Aiyuk wasn’t placed on the COVID list! But, Jeudy has 24 targets in his last two games. Now, the downside is, obviously, Denver’s quarterback situation. It’s not good. But, Drew Lock is CLEARLY better than his backups, and they can somewhat move the ball when he’s in there. I can’t tell if Lock is good yet (as I absolutely refuse to watch Broncos games because they’re so boring), but he might be. And I think Jeudy has the potential to be this year’s A.J. Brown (who, down the stretch LAST year as a rookie, really dominated for a lot of really good fantasy teams). So, I think I’m going to hang onto Jeudy and start him for a while, because his matchups the rest of the way are pretty solid. And, if he kills it, my wide receiver spot is locked cold!

Beasts got a huge boost from the return of Christian McCaffery (37.1), but Russell Wilson obviously had a tough game, and Justin Herbert was the only other player on his team to hit double-digits. Everyone else was under 10.

Before the weekend was finished, I made a roster move, picking up Dallas Goedert, who is healthy and the primary tight end (at the moment) for Carson Wentz and the Eagles. Noah Fant is not so reliable for me; he keeps getting injured (missing some snaps this past week after an early big gainer, never really picking things up from there) and he’s on an offense (again with the Broncos) that can struggle to move the ball. Goedert is a legitimate Top 10 tight end when healthy, on an offense that LOVES to throw to its tight ends (especially in the red zone). As long as Zach Ertz is out, Goedert is a phenomenal pick-up for me.

To make room, I officially had to abandon the Daniel Jones experiment. He went from keeper (and hopeful fantasy franchise quarterback), to on the waiver wire in half a season. What a disgrace! Both for him and for me! But, I mean, you can’t keep banging your head against the wall when something isn’t working. I have Cousins now and he’s a much more reliable third QB. Tua is the future! Dimes was a mistake.

More roster moves needed to be made, as it appeared I had two wide receivers coming off of the IR in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. My first drop went to the Washington defense. I had three on my roster last week and that’s about two too many (but I’ll never drop the Rams’ defense, as they’ve got solid matchups coming up this season).

As of press time, I haven’t officially made the other move I need to make, because I still have up until Sunday morning. You never know who’s going to get tagged with a COVID designation for the week, so I don’t want to go dropping anyone before I have to. If I do end up needing to drop someone, it’s going to be Noah Fant. I have no use for two tight ends on my roster and if Goedert ends up getting hurt again, I’ll just pick up someone else. Fant isn’t even a top ten tight end – though he’s been a relatively consistent high-floor/low-ceiling guy – so I don’t mind streaming tight ends the rest of the year if I need to.

My concern is: my kicker is on a BYE this week. Harrison Butker hasn’t been the world-beater I expected (I REALLY regret taking him over Justin Tucker two rounds before the final round, where most people draft their kickers); he’s ranked 14th in our league this season. The Chiefs predominantly score touchdowns because they have an elite offense, which was to be expected, but he hasn’t been hitting as many 50+ yarders as I thought he would, and he’s annoyingly missed the most PATs in football, that have taken points AWAY from his total! But, I don’t want to just fucking lose him for nothing, because I know as soon as I drop him, he’s going to go off for some games in the high teens. So, I’ll be waiting until the last minute to pick up a replacement kicker; the guy I end up dropping to do THAT will be TBD.

This week, I go up against Crazy N8’s Prostates, the guy I improbably defeated in Week 1, as well as the guy who just traded for Drew Brees and Julio Jones. He’s currently 4th in the standings, yet has far-and-away scored the most points. Here’s what Nobody Beats The Wiz is looking at starting:

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) vs. LAC
  • Carson Wentz (QB) @ NYG
  • A.J. Brown (WR) vs. IND
  • Jerry Jeudy (WR) @ LV
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) vs. DEN
  • Chase Edmonds (RB) vs. BUF
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) @ NYG
  • Brandon Aiyuk (WR) @ NO
  • TBD (K) vs. TBD
  • Indianapolis (DEF) @ TEN

Pretty easy choice with the quarterbacks, as Kirk Cousins is playing a stout Bears defense on Monday Night Football. I expect that game to be low scoring, and it wouldn’t shock me to see Cousins turn the ball over a lot. Also a no-brainer for my starting wide receivers, as Brown is a Must Start and Jeudy might be heading that way. It’s a no-brainer for my running backs as well, because Ezekiel Elliott and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both on BYEs. My FLEX spot is still up in the air, as there’s a rumor that Deebo Samuel might be healthy this week. If he is, he’s my guy over Aiyuk. However, with the 49ers scheduled to have a BYE next week, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them rest Deebo one more week before bringing him back super fresh. As for my defense, I don’t love the matchup, but I can’t play the Rams against my Seahawks, even if Aaron Donald alone will probably get three sacks and they could have a field day if Wilson continues to turn the ball over like he’s been doing.

I’m catching some more good BYE-week luck with Crazy N8’s Prostates, as both Julio Jones and Travis Kelce are out this week. As you’ll see, though, he has replacements more than capable of filling their shoes:

  • Josh Allen (QB) @ ARI
  • Drew Brees (QB) vs. SF
  • Allen Robinson (WR) vs. MIN
  • Robert Woods (WR) vs. SEA
  • James Conner (RB) vs. CIN
  • Aaron Jones (RB) vs. JAX
  • Eric Ebron (TE) vs. CIN
  • Keenan Allen (WR) @ MIA
  • Justin Tucker (K) @ NE
  • Green Bay (DEF) vs. JAX

He has some of the SICKEST matchups this week. I mean, Robert Woods alone – against our inept Seahawks defense – is just a nightmare. But, all his receivers should do great, his running backs might score three TDs apiece, his quarterbacks will certainly be fine, and I bet Baltimore kicks a lot of field goals against the Patriots on the road. He’s even got an elite defensive matchup (I should know, I picked up the Packers this week in my other league, where I should reiterate I am CRUSHING it).

Nobody Beats The Wiz is going to need to WILDLY outscore projections. This would be, probably, the most perfect time to net my first 200-point week of the season.

At 4-5, I’m in 7th place in the league, JUST on the outside-looking-in at the playoffs. I now have the third-fewest total points, having leapfrogged Korky Butchek for the honor. Now that everyone has played everyone once, we officially have a season that will count in the record books; if COVID officially ruins everything … well, I won’t have my name on the trophy, that’s for damn sure.

That having been said, I don’t expect the season to ever shut down completely. I have four weeks to make up ground. If I get lucky, my final two regular season games could be against my direct competition for the 6th and final spot in the playoffs. I technically have control of my own destiny; if I win out, I will definitely make the post-season. But, come on, let’s not go overboard here.

One week at a time. Let’s go 2-0 against Crazy N8! Wouldn’t that be something?

Is This Where The Seahawks Start To Take Their Season To The Next Level?

We talk about it all the time: the Seahawks are excellent closers. They tend to play pretty well at the end of games, and they tend to play pretty well at the end of seasons.

In futzing around with Pro Football Reference, I discovered that the Seahawks aren’t quite as elite as we think they are in one-score (8 points or less) regular season games in the Russell Wilson era, with a record of 36-32-1. But, nevertheless, Wilson has built his career on end-of-game comebacks, so the reputation is born.

That record is actually more in line with conventional thinking: over the long haul, most teams are usually around .500 in close games (be it the one-score variety in football, one-run games in baseball, or basketball games that finish within 3 points).

This year, the Seahawks are 8-2 overall, and 7-1 in one-score games. So, the fear would be (as they talked about on the Brock & Salk podcast this past week) the dreaded Regression To The Mean. If you expect most teams to be right around .500 in these situations, then you might expect a rash of one-score losses to be coming in these final six games. But, as everyone always talks about, it’s such a small sample size in football of 16 regular season games; therefore anomalies abound. So, if this year the Seahawks are an anomaly, maybe that regression hits in 2020; but of course, there’s so much turnover in the NFL that it’s effectively an entirely new team from year to year, so I don’t really know how much regression will play into this at all.

TL;DR: it’s all a fucking crapshoot.

The more interesting thing is how the Seahawks finish their seasons in the Russell Wilson Era. From Week 11 through Week 17, the Seahawks are 34-13 in this span, which is absolutely phenomenal. I don’t know where that ranks among all the teams in the NFL, but that’s a .723 winning percentage (whereas overall, the Seahawks have a regular season winning percentage of only .674 since Russell Wilson joined the team). So, there’s just no arguing that overall, the Seahawks are a better team closing out the year than they are to start.

Now, of course, 2016 and 2017 weren’t great, but pobody’s nerfect.

Anyway, here we are, closing out the month of November. Coming off of our BYE week. Hitting the road, going to Philly, who’s coming off of a difficult loss to the Patriots last Sunday. Shit’s getting real for everyone. The Seahawks are one game behind the 49ers for the division lead, and we’re tied with Green Bay and New Orleans in the conference standings. How we wrap up these final six games will determine if we’re in the playoffs or not, as well as if we’re division winners, or even in the Top 2 in the NFC. Our very championship hopes and dreams hinge on these final regular season games.

If you thought our game against the 49ers was intense, just you wait.

Which brings me back to the other point made on Brock & Salk: the infamous point differential. The Seahawks are only +21, which is more in line with a 5-4-1 record than it is the one we have now. As we’ve seen with recent Mariners seasons (when they were improbably contending for a wild card spot, not 2019), the chickens come home to roost over the long haul if you’ve got a great record and a mediocre point/run differential. But, again, as I just got done talking about: small NFL sample sizes.

Also: the Seahawks have Russell Wilson and you guys don’t.

If this is the time of year where the Russell Wilson-led Seahawks traditionally start picking things up (which we’ve established that it is), and these 2019 Seahawks continue that trend (which we all pray that they do), then we should start seeing some more lopsided scores in our favor, to push that point-differential out to a more respectable number. So we’re NOT having to rely on all of these close, one-score games!

Unfortunately, the opponents don’t get any easier, and that starts with Philly this weekend. Sure, the Eagles are only 5-5, and their only path to the playoffs appears to be a divisional battle with the 6-4 Cowboys, but they’re a quality, veteran team with good coaching that’s had recent success in the playoffs and Super Bowl; this is a team that also generally finishes their seasons better than they start them.

Kind of an unstoppable force against an immovable object situation.

The 2019 Eagles thus far have been – to my fantasy dismay – pretty underwhelming on defense, particularly in the secondary where they’ve been shredded by most teams they’ve played. Until last week (when I conveniently traded for Tom Brady in fantasy, of course), when they held the Pats in check and generally made life miserable for them on offense. Of course, the Eagles have also been pretty underwhelming on offense this year (last week was no exception), but then again so have the Seahawks on defense.

Until that 49ers game. So, which Seahawks defense will we be getting the rest of the way? Will it be from the first nine weeks? Or, the vastly improved unit we saw in Santa Clara a couple Mondays ago?

If that’s the defense we get, I think this Sunday’s game against the Eagles will be no contest. But, if our defense reverts back to sucking, and the Eagles’ defense keeps up what they started last week (which was, for them, coming off of a BYE, where presumably key guys had since gotten healthy on that side of the ball), then this game is going to be a lot closer – and a lot more difficult to win – than we’ve come to expect.

This game is no sure thing, in other words. Also: what else is new?

The Eagles started out this week as 2.5-point favorites. That line has since moved to 1.5; nevertheless it feels wrong for them to be favored. I don’t think Vegas quite trusts that the Seahawks’ defense has turned a corner, and I don’t blame ’em.

The Eagles are hurting at receiver. Honestly, believe what their fans say when they rant on Twitter about how they let Josh Gordon fall to us, because they definitely could use him (and definitely could afford him). Nevertheless, they’re quite strong at tight end, and that’s where the Seahawks’ defense tends to be weakest. I would expect big games out of both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. They’re also banged up at running back, but Miles Sanders has the potential to be special. Carson Wentz isn’t my favorite fantasy quarterback at the moment, but he’s as capable as anyone (you have to at least put him in the top half of all QBs from a talent perspective, which is plenty good enough to beat this defense, even when we’re rolling).

I nevertheless would expect the Seahawks to win this game. I picked them in my weekly pick ’em contest, and if I were in a sportsbook I’d put a decent amount of money on us to win on the moneyline. I never know what to expect out of a Seahawks game, but this should prove to be a solid indicator of things to come. If the Seahawks win in a rout, then the End Of Season Roll should be in full effect. We should see a drastic improvement in our point-differential, and could make a serious charge at one of the top two seeds in the NFC. If the Seahawks win a tight one, then maybe that’s just who this team is, and they’ll have to continue to pull these nailbiters out of their collective asses to get us to where we want them to be by season’s end.

And, if the Seahawks lose … all bets are off. I don’t want to even think about what might happen if that’s the case. Like a rock n’ roller with no backup plan: it’s either the bigtime, or dead in a ditch; there is no Plan B (which, in this case, would be sneaking into the playoffs as a wildcard and losing in the first round in Dallas like last year).