I love doing this post, I don’t care how wrong I am. Last year, I was pretty far off in a lot of ways. Detroit winning their division, Green Bay out of the playoffs entirely, New Orleans as the clear-cut second-best team in the NFC (and maybe NFL), Tampa and Atlanta both sneaking in as wild cards (essentially, I was high on everyone in what would be the worst division of all time – the 2014 NFC South – except the actual division winner). And, of course, I made the mistake of picking a repeat Super Bowl matchup, which is about the dumbest thing you can possibly do.
I did have this little nugget of wisdom heading into the 2014 season, and if you replace all the Denver parts with New England parts, it rings eerily true:
My thing is – and I’ll deny it to my grave if I’m wrong – I have a SERIOUS nagging worry that the Seahawks and Denver will both make it back to the Super Bowl, but it’ll be the Broncos hoisting the Lombardi trophy while we sit and watch, devastated.
Of course, my official pick was a repeat Super Bowl championship, and we all know how that turned out.
So, let’s turn the page to 2015. Here are my picks, in all their glory:
Seemingly every year, I find the NFC East to be a crapshoot, where the hottest team in December ultimately wins the division. That USUALLY means the Cowboys are on the outside looking in, but in 2014, they finally put it all together. For 2015, I don’t see a whole lotta drop-off. They still have that offensive line, so their running game should be all right, which means their offense should continue to be the strength. Do just enough on defense, and I think they’ll take it.
Coming into this month, I would’ve had the Giants as my pick. I like the way they finished last year; and a full season of Eli to ODB should be gangbusters. But, I hear too much bad stuff about their defense for comfort (then again, that same bad stuff was said about the Cowboys’ defense last year, and they turned out okay). I have a hard time trying to peg Philly. I think they could be as good as a top 2 seed in the NFC, or they could be last in their division with 4 wins. I choose to believe that Sam Bradford will at some point be lost for the year. I also believe their defense got lucky on a lot of return TDs last year, and DeMarco Murray is another injury waiting to happen. Ultimately, all the tinkering will have made them worse. As for Washington, the less said about them, the better (though, I do believe with their new GM – Scot McCloughan – they have a chance to turn it around in a hurry; so long as Dan Snyder doesn’t fuck things up first).
Well, if I’m going to put the stink on anyone, it might as well be the Packers. I’ve got them as the biggest challenge to the Seahawks making it to a third straight Super Bowl, and right now, in fact, I have them with the edge for that #1 seed (by way of them hosting us in week 2, and by way of their incredibly easy schedule for a first place team). The loss of Jordy Nelson for the year isn’t great, but with James Jones back in the fold, they should have enough receivers to get through the year just fine. One of the strongest Packers teams I’ve seen since they went 15-1.
I still like Detroit – indeed, I like them as a Wild Card pick – and think they’ll have no trouble winning 10 games, even with the losses they’ve suffered on defense. I like Minnesota to take a step forward, as Teddy Bridgewater gets more comfortable as a passer. And, I like Chicago to be one of the very worst teams in the entire NFC (and therefore, the world).
I still find this division to be pretty pathetic, and I still doubt the winner of this division will have more than 9 wins. I don’t like Carolina much, but I like the teams I’ve ranked below them even less. Atlanta is still far from solid on defense, and they’ve got exactly two good players on offense (Matt Ryan & Julio Jones). That’s it. In games it wins, I’m sure the Ryan to Jones connection will be on point. But, good teams will be able to shut that option down, and thereby shutting down the entire offense. They don’t have a running game at all, Roddy White is very near retirement, and they’re STILL trying to figure out a way to replace Tony Gonzalez (will the mummy Antonio Gates be a free agent anytime soon?).
I’ve got New Orleans in the 3-hole, but I could easily see them as dead last. Who are Brees’ options? Are they REALLY going to devote their offense more to the run? Do they even HAVE a defense? I could see this year going sour in a hurry. Tampa actually has some upside, and if their #1 QB gets the hang of this game, they could approach 6-8 wins.
I’ll get to the Seahawks throughout the week in a series of previews, but suffice it to say, with all the turnover, I still feel the Seahawks are one of the best two or three teams in the NFL. In a little more shocking news, I finally like the Rams to get over the hump and into the playoffs. I think this is the year their defense puts it all together. I don’t like Nick Foles a ton, but he is a starting quarterback in this league, and I’d much rather have him than someone like Cutler, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Bradford, Cousins, Hoyer, and QB Browns. Furthermore, I don’t think they’ll have to do much at all on offense to win games this year; I foresee a lot of 16-13 wins, as teams struggle to move the ball. The schedule doesn’t help them out much early (3 of first 5 on the road, with games vs. SEA, vs. PIT, @ AZ, and @ GB), but after their week 6 BYE, they have a stretch where they play 6 of 9 at home, featuring (vs. CLE, vs. SF, @ MIN, vs. CHI, @ BAL, @ CIN, vs. AZ, vs. DET, vs TB). I see them winning 7 of those games alone, and with a couple of unmentioned road games against the 49ers and Redskins, it’s not impossible to see this as a 10-win team.
I don’t like Arizona at all. I think they got incredibly lucky in 2014 (which is a ridiculous statement, considering how unlucky they were with injuries, specifically with the quarterback position) and were not as good of a team as their record. Carson Palmer is back, but I can’t imagine he has much left in the tank. They’ve lost a bunch of guys on both sides of the line, and they still don’t have a running game at all. They might get off to a good start early (home games against the Saints, 49ers, and Rams in the first four weeks, with the only road game being at Chicago), but look for the wheels to come off as that stretch is followed by the following (@ DET, @ PIT, vs. BAL, @ CLE, BYE, @ SEA, vs. CIN, @ SF, @ StL). I could easily see them losing 6 of those games, and that doesn’t factor in a tough stretch of mostly home games to close out the season (vs. MIN, @ PHI, vs. GB, vs. SEA). With Palmer surely injured by this point, I could see them losing out and having at least 10-11 losses this year.
And with all of that said, I STILL think the 49ers will be worse! My hope is that they’re terrible, but not so terrible that they get a Top 5 pick. Is that possible? Well, considering all their good people are either retired or playing/coaching elsewhere, we might actually be looking at the future #1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Not quite my worst nightmare, but it’s close. The only things they have going for them is a Week 10 BYE and they get to host us on a Thursday (#ShortWeek).
With Tom Brady
embiggened emboldened by the overturning of his 4-game suspension, I fully expect him to lay to waste any defense that comes across his path. The thing with that is, teams aren’t just going to roll over and die (well, MOST teams; I fully expect the Steelers on Thursday to roll over like the good doggies they are, as I’m playing against my friend in Fantasy Football who’s starting Brady this week). The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets all have pretty tough defenses. I don’t expect them to beat the Pats a whole lot, but I’d LIKE to see them knock Brady around, to wipe that smug fucking smirk off his face. They also face the defenses of Houston, Denver, and Dallas who should all be pretty tough as well. How they managed to dodge playing the Ravens in the regular season is a crime against NFL scheduling (though, I obviously understand how NFL scheduling works, wouldn’t the hype for that game – which would invariably be played on either a Sunday or Monday night – be deliciously over the top?).
Elsewhere, like the Rams, I think this is the year the Dolphins finally make it over the hump. Mike Wallace is gone, so that’s addition by subtraction. I think they have the weapons in both the passing game and the running game to be a consistent force on offense. With the addition of Suh on defense, that gives their run defense instant credibility, forcing other teams to be one dimensional. That formula (combined with playing the NFC East and AFC South) should be more than enough to get them to 10 wins and a wild card. I like Buffalo for approximately 7-8 wins (mostly due to their very-strong defense and lack of a quarterback), and I like the Jets for even less than that (mostly due to their less-strong defense and even BIGGER lack of a quarterback).
The Ravens won the Super Bowl in the 2012 season, then suffered an immediate setback thanks to the Joe Flacco contract. They shed older players, reloaded through the draft, and now they’re back once again, ready to contend for more championships. You know I love me some Seahawks front office, but I have only the utmost respect for the Ravens’. And, not to get off on a tangent here, but I like the Ravens’ front office even more than the Patriots’. Yeah, the Pats may have been more successful over the last decade and a half, but they’ve also been cheating throughout, and most importantly, they’ve EASILY had the lowest level of divisional competition by a fucking thousand miles. If you swapped the Ravens and Patriots (so the Ravens were in the AFC LEast and the Pats were in the AFC North), I can make a pretty easy argument for the Ravens being the last great dynasty in the NFL, and the Pats still being pretty good, but nowhere near 6 Super Bowl appearances in 15 years.
Like the Giants, if you’d asked me to rank the divisions a month ago, I probably would’ve put Pittsburgh on top. Again, you gotta like the way their offense played down the stretch. But, that defense is clearly rebuilding, and they’re unlikely to remain as lucky with injuries as they were in 2014 (their center is already out for at least half the year, being put on the IR-designated to return). If I had to predict the 2016 division champions, I’d probably tell you the Steelers will finally be ready. But, as it stands now, I think they win no more than 9-10 games, and I think that’s still not good enough to crack the Wild Card. I like Cincy to fall below .500 for the first time since Andy Dalton came into the league. I also think Andy Dalton’s stranglehold on the starting QB job is in jeopardy and he starts losing some snaps to A.J. McCarron (Wave of the Future!). Finally, I think Cleveland is a mess and that’s the end of that analysis.
Indy is quickly taking over the reign of Worst Divisional Opponents In The NFL from New England, which is pretty easy to do when you’re good and the rest of the teams in your division don’t have any quarterbacks. I think Hoyer and that Texans defense will be good enough to get to around 8 wins. I think Jacksonville will make some strides towards .500 this year, but I don’t believe in Bortles as far as I can throw him; he’ll be another bust. And the Titans are too young to do much of anything. Mariota being Jake Locker 2.0 is probably their worst nightmare.
I think we’re reaching the end of the line for Peyton Manning. I like them to sneak into a wild card spot, but I’m not even really high on that, to be honest. This is sort of a hedge pick; if Manning stays healthy, and the defense keeps up their end of the bargain, the Broncos could be divisional winners. If Manning gets hurt, I think they could fall as far as last place in the division. So, I decided to meet in the middle – maybe Manning misses a bunch of games in the middle of the season and they get him back for a hot stretch run in December. Either way, I feel pretty good about the Chiefs grabbing control of the division. Most people blame Alex Smith for their offensive woes last year; I blame their sub-pedestrian receivers (led by the corpse of Dwayne Bowe). With a REAL number one receiver in Jeremy Maclin, I think this offense hums along like those old Andy Reid Philly teams. And, considering their defense is pretty fearsome, I wouldn’t be shocked if this team won 12 games and a BYE in the first round of the playoffs.
I could see the Chargers sneaking past the Broncos for that final wild card spot, but I dunno. The Chargers seem to be a team that always has all the promise in the world, but ultimately falters to a .500 finish. I’m going to say their defense isn’t up to the charge (!), their running game isn’t where it needs to be, and Rivers doesn’t quite have the receiving weapons to get the job done. As for the Raiders, it all hinges on Derek Carr. That’s a scary proposition.
- Green Bay
- St. Louis
- New England
- Kansas City
Wild Card Round
Dallas over Detroit
St. Louis over Carolina
Kansas City over Miami
Baltimore over Denver
Seattle over St. Louis
Dallas over Green Bay
New England over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Seattle over Dallas
Indianapolis over New England
Seattle over Indianapolis
In 2012, the Colts – with rookie Andrew Luck – won 11 games, made the playoffs, and lost in the first round to the Ravens. In 2013, the Colts won 11 games again, made the playoffs again, beat the Chiefs in the Wild Card round, and lost to the Patriots in the Divisional round. In 2014, the Colts won 11 games one more time, made the playoffs, beat the Bengals in the Wild Card round, beat the Broncos in the Divisional round, and lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. My point being: the Colts have gotten better every single year under Andrew Luck. Their first year was just seeing what they had – and what they had was the next Peyton Manning. The next year was seeing if the first year wasn’t a fluke. Last year was taking that next step towards being elite. THIS year is where they put it all together.
They’ve got Andre Johnson to go with T.Y. Hilton, which is a vast improvement over Reggie Wayne towards the end of his career. They’ve got the steady presence of Frank Gore who’s been nothing if not healthy and is dying for a chance to win a ring. And, FINALLY, I think they’ve made real strides to toughen up that defense. I think this is the year they finally get over the hump of the Patriots running the ball down their throats. I think they’ve got the complete package – even an elite shutdown corner in Vontae Davis (if he can stay healthy) – and I think this is the year they make their reemergence into the Super Bowl.
And, with all that being said, I think they’re going to get beat by the Seahawks. You could argue that the first 10 games of the 2014 season saw the Seahawks wrapped up in a long term Super Bowl Hangover. I think there’s no such hangover this year. Everyone has their eyes on that prize and they’re going to do anything and everything to make people forget about The Play Call That Shall Not Be Named.
I have no such doubts about this year like I did going into last year. I’m not QUITE as confident as I was going into the 2013 season (where I knew as soon as the 2012 playoffs ended that we’d be the team to beat), but that team was as complete as can be on both sides of the ball. This team is almost there, but I worry about a few growing pains early. If we beat the Rams and Packers in the first two weeks, all doubt will be washed away going forward.
The course for a Seahawks Dynasty is still very much on track.