Tag Archives: Daniel Jones

The Seahawks Re-Signed Geno Smith

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It’s 3 years and $105 million. That’s the headline figure. We still don’t know the actual structure of the contract, and I got tired of waiting around for it to land on Twitter. It won’t kill me to write a follow-up post at some point.

News came out today that it’s really a 3-year, $75 million deal, with $30 million in incentives. They’re saying it’s $40 million guaranteed at signing and that he’ll earn $28 million in the first year. I don’t want to get into the weeds here in money speculation, but the consensus seems to believe that this is effectively a 2-year deal, with little-to-no guarantees in that third year.

I’ll be honest, I’m a little disappointed. I’m not surprised though, I was fully expecting this to happen. And, as far as compensation goes, it’s not outrageous. This ensures we have a floor that’s probably around .500 (barring injuries). But, I would argue our ceiling is also pretty damn close to .500, which is what ultimately gets me. It comes down to beliefs; I don’t believe Geno Smith can lead us to a championship while he’s making this kind of money. Others do believe that, and that’s okay. We’re all entitled to our opinions.

I also believe the Seahawks were bidding against themselves in this thing. That’s why all the chatter about putting him on the Franchise Tag was insane; who were we going to get in a bidding war with? We should’ve let him hit free agency and seen what shook out in the wash. There’s been zero rumors about other teams having interest. If there was legitimate chatter behind the scenes, you know Geno’s camp would’ve heard about it. And, if that was the case, you know they would’ve held out for more money! The fact that he had to settle for a deal so incentive-laden only proves the market was soft!

He’s had one good year in the pros! And even then, there were more comparisons to Ryan Tannehill than even Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr. So, why did this have to get done now? It could’ve been done weeks from now. At – I would argue – a lower overall cost.

But, you know, good for Geno. He earned it! He bided his time behind Russell Wilson for years, he bet on himself when this job finally opened up, and he took advantage of Drew Lock getting COVID last pre-season (thereby eliminating him as competition). He also, at times, played very well, and led us to a wild card berth. If you’re into wild card berths, you must be loving this signing! Then again, that’s pretty much all we’ve been getting out of Russell Wilson in the back-half of his career here, so we’re used to this kind of overachieving mediocrity (or underachieving success).

I can also say, “At least we’re not the Giants or the Saints!” Imagine overpaying for Daniel Jones or Derek Carr, for Christ’s sake.

I wish I could get excited for this. It seems like a lot of Seahawks fans are into Geno Smith. I feel like the rest of you are much less tortured as fans. Much more healthy and emotionally mature. All I can see are the very best teams – the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys in the NFC; the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills in the AFC – and how very far away in quality we are from them. We clearly didn’t deserve to be a playoff team last year, but made it thanks to the expansion to a seventh team in each conference. We have SO MANY holes we need to fill, and now we’re devoting a significant portion of money to the quarterback position.

And I don’t know how the salary cap works, but I would assume we will need to keep some money in reserve in case he hits some of these incentives. I don’t think these are necessarily those types of incentives the NFL deems to be “not likely to be reached”. I think if he plays just as well as he did in 2022, he’ll probably earn most of them. So, the $25 million per year figure is only if he truly bottoms out. But, if he maintains this new status quo – again, a status quo that leaves us playing right around .500 ball – it’s likelier to be in that $30-$35 million range we were all anticipating.

That doesn’t leave us with a lot of wiggle room to improve the roster elsewhere. Indeed, we’re stuck needing to be perfect in our draft again, while at the same time hitting on some under-the-radar dumpster dive free agent signings.

It’s the worst possible position to be in. Only we’ve just traded Russell Wilson for Geno Smith. Everything else is mid as fuck.

I Don’t See The Downside To Letting Geno Smith Hit Free Agency

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Of course I don’t, because I don’t really want to see the Seahawks re-signing him. But, I’m resigned to the fact that he will be back, because that’s just how it works. NFL teams can’t help themselves. It’s a zero-risk league; you find what works and you beat it into the fucking ground.

For the purposes of this exercise, though, let’s pretend that I do want Geno Smith back. That I’m more than happy with a 9-8 team that barely squeaks into the playoffs. That mediocrity is my be-all, end-all in life. I was listening to Brock & Salk the other day, and I think they were torn on the matter. Someone said something about how he expects Geno to hit free agency, and Salk said if that happens, he’s as good as gone, because some team will blow the Seahawks away with an over-the-top offer.

I don’t agree with that. I mean, sure, there might be some other team willing to pay $32+ million per year to nab Geno. But, you’re making a big assumption when you opine that the Seahawks might get some sort of discount if we act fast and lock him up before free agency starts.

Frankly, I don’t see any reason why Geno Smith would want to avoid the open market. This is his first – and maybe ONLY – chance to make some real money in this league. His value has never been higher, and it will probably never BE higher than it is right this moment. He has every right to hold out for the absolute highest offer, whatever that may be. Unless …

Conversely, yeah, if you’re the Seahawks – and you want Geno to return – you have to be nervous about a bidding war starting up among the quarterback-needy teams in the league. There are PLENTY of organizations out there who would love to have his services. Geno would be a vast improvement for so many teams! And, as they always say, it only takes one to become enamored with him. Unless …

What if there isn’t the market everyone expects for Geno? Well then, it would be in Geno’s best interests to sign now and avoid the catastrophe that is the league lowballing him all offseason. Conversely, maybe the Seahawks would be wise to wait and see. Maybe instead of approaching that Franchise Tag figure, we’re free to sign him for considerably less.

Why don’t we take this opportunity to look around the league: who are the teams that need a quarterback, and who are the veteran quarterbacks available?

New York Jets – That’s a good team built to win right now, only missing a quarterback. I think they very much present a potential landing spot for a veteran. Would they want to bring Geno back after he failed so miserably with them the first time? I’m dubious.

Baltimore Ravens – It looks like they might move on from Lamar Jackson. But, they have 2022 Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley they could always turn to.

Houston Texans – They have the second overall pick and almost certainly will draft someone.

Indianapolis Colts – They have the fourth overall pick and almost certainly will draft someone.

Las Vegas Raiders – They’ve abandoned Derek Carr and could cut him with relatively little in the way of dead money; they could also try to trade him, though I don’t know what that market looks like. They have the seventh overall pick, but I could see them going either way (veteran vs. rookie).

Washington Commanders – They don’t strike me as a team that can be happy with the guys they’ve got. Like the Jets, they seem close to contention right now, just needing to shore up the quarterback spot. I’d bank on a veteran going their way.

New York Giants – They only need someone if they opt to let Danny Dimes walk. If that’s the case, I’d say they go with a veteran.

The Entire NFC South – The Falcons have the eighth overall pick and a third round quarterback from a year ago. I could see them going either way, but if I were them, I’d just draft another guy and have the two young guns duke it out. The Bucs are losing Tom Brady and don’t appear to have anyone in reserve; they seem to be a likely landing spot for a vet. The Saints would be idiotic to run it back with Andy Dalton, and Jameis Winston apparently isn’t any better otherwise he would’ve been in there when their season was at stake. I could also see them going for a vet. As for the Panthers, I think it’s full rebuild time; they have the ninth pick this year, go get a rookie.

Seattle Seahawks – duh.

Besides the Seahawks, there’s eleven teams. Two, for sure, will go with rookies. Maybe up to four. On the market, we figure to have the aforementioned Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, maybe Aaron Rodgers (if the Packers opt to trade him and go with Jordan Love), Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Cooper Rush, Gardner Minshew, and Matt Ryan. If I’m the Seahawks, I don’t know if I’m enamored with any of those guys. If I’m the rest of the league, though, maybe Geno Smith isn’t looking too bad?

I guess we’ll see. As someone who is against paying $32+ million for Geno Smith, I’m in favor of letting him test the waters. Let him get that somewhere else. Because there’s always the chance that the rest of the NFL sees his 2022 season as something of a fluke. Or, at the very least, a product of a very specific environment, that isn’t likely to be replicated just anywhere.

Ultimately, the question I have for myself is: is there a number I would like to have Geno come back to the Seahawks at? Maybe $20-$25 million. That doesn’t seem super realistic, but I could see myself being comfortable with that sort of deal, over two or three years.

Are The Seahawks Contenders In The NFC?

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They’re sucking me in, man! I still can’t say that I’m all the way there yet, even though we’re 5-3 and in first place in the NFC West by a full game. Even though we just beat the 6-win Giants a week after a pretty convincing road victory over the probably playoff-bound Chargers.

But, I’m getting there. At some point, the Seahawks are going to keep winning football games, and I’m going to have no choice but to believe. At least believe in something. Is this a championship-contending team? PROBABLY not. I still think the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs are the class of the NFL. I would also say that Dallas most likely beats us in any sort of meaningful contest. And, sure, we’ll lose other games to other teams as well. But, when you flip it and ask, “Who could the Seahawks beat on any given Sunday?” The answer is pretty considerable. I think we’re getting to the point where there isn’t a team we couldn’t hypothetically defeat. But, if you had me choose, I think those aforementioned four teams would be my pick 100 out of 100 times.

I also don’t want to take away anything from the Giants – I did have them ranked in the top tier of my power rankings last week – but they’re clearly a flawed team. Why anyone would have a team with Daniel Jones in their top tier is anyone’s guess. But, they also do a lot of things well. They run the ball with the best of ’em. They play defense at a great clip. They block for their quarterback, who can scramble around and make just enough plays to be somewhat effective (as long as he’s not fumbling or otherwise giving the ball away to the other team).

And yet the Giants were really out-classed by the Seahawks in this one. It was a 27-13 victory, but it could’ve been so much more without some uncharacteristic mistakes by Tyler Lockett (who had a critical fumble and a dropped touchdown, before redeeming himself with a TD in the fourth quarter).

Geno Smith wasn’t exactly electric in this one (23 of 34 for 212, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs), but he was also under duress for the entire game. And we never really got our running game going, though Walker did salvage his day with a late 16-yard TD run. But, the defense once again made some real hay!

We had 5 sacks on the day – 2 by Nwosu, who is absolutely the real deal, in all facets of the game – and likely would’ve held the Giants’ offense without a touchdown if it weren’t for the muffed punt by Lockett. Tariq Woolen is already a guy teams are avoiding throwing against (I don’t think he was targeted until the second half in this one), and with the adjustments we’ve made up front (with the D-Line being more aggressive and attacking single gaps as opposed to trying to play two gaps like they were early in the season), we’ve gotten opposing running games under control, while letting the players do what they’re best at. We held Saquon Barkley to 53 yards on 20 carries for crying out loud!

So, that begs the question: can the Seahawks compete in the NFC? Are we really doing this?!

Look, I had legitimate questions about this team winning three games all year. Yet, here we are, having won three in a row, and four of our last five. On the horizon, there are opponents who were quite scary heading into the season, who now look like potential cannon fodder. Could I see us winning in Arizona next week? You mean, our home away from home? Absolutely I could! Could we beat the Bucs in Germany? Yes, very much so, they’ve looked horrible this season. Can we take down the Raiders, Rams, Panthers, Jets, and 49ers at home? Why not? The hardest game looks to be at Kansas City on Christmas Eve, but I remember us playing Patrick Mahomes pretty tough the last time we faced them, so I wouldn’t throw that out either.

The Seahawks can very much compete in this NFC. That doesn’t mean I’m all in. They could also struggle against the Rams like they always do. The 49ers still look like they’re loaded on both sides of the ball. And I don’t think there’s any catching the Eagles this year for the one seed.

So, what I’m really saying is that it’s all still on the table. We could keep winning and get as high as the two seed. Or, we could fall apart again and drop out of the playoffs. But, I’m willing to put my faith in at least a wild card run, with a very good chance at winning the suddenly questionable NFC West.

What can’t be denied is that this is a fun team, and a fun development. When your expectations are nil, and the team you root for comes from out of nowhere to not only compete, but look really good doing it? On top of being a very young team, and watching those young players compete at a high level? It’s great! This is as close to an ideal outcome as you could get.

Starting this week, I’m coming at this season with a new mindset. I’m out of Tank Mode. That was really ripped away from me anyway, so it would be foolish to root for tanking now. I’m also ready to climb down off of the fence. I don’t know if I’ve taken the Seahawks once this year in my pick ’em league, always expecting the other shoe to eventually drop. But, now I have to treat this team like I would any other above-average team. They’re good. They have a lot going for them. They can beat anyone. Now it’s time to invest. It’s time to start rooting for wins, rooting for us to take down the division, rooting for various playoff scenarios.

This is a gift. An unexpected pleasant surprise. So, it’s time to start really relishing in our great fortune. It’s been a rough last few years, with everything in decline and only Russell Wilson there to prop up our hopes. Oddly enough, it turns out, he was also the one holding us back. Now, we’re free from that see-saw, and it’s all good vibes going forward. Everything is gravy. So, let’s fuck around and see what happens!

Fun Seahawks Are Fun!

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I still don’t know if I totally comprehend what happened yesterday. Though, I’ll admit, there’s a lot about this team that befuddles me.

My brain is having a hard time wrapping itself around the concept that the Seahawks are good. But also, ARE the Seahawks good? If we’re good, why did we lose at home to the Falcons and at ALL to the Saints? Is this part of the 7-10 process, where they lure us into a false sense of curiosity and wonderment, before bringing the axe down on our necks?

Or, did the Seahawks used to be mediocre, but now we’ve grown? Now, we’ve figured out how to play defense a little bit. Now, as the younger guys have had an opportunity to gain experience, we’re seeing the fruit starting to blossom.

I can’t think of a better litmus test at this point in the season than a road game against the Chargers. I like the Chargers. I think they’re pretty good. Their coaching is a little suspect at times; I think their play-calling on fourth down leaves A LOT to be desired. But, there’s a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and the Seahawks just made mincemeat of them, 37-23.

I’ll admit, part of the reason why I’m so jazzed is because I had some fantasy football juice in this game, and after a rocky start – losing D.K. after only a single reception severely hurt my chances – my guys blew up. “My guys” being Austin Ekeler (127 total yards, 12 receptions, and 2 total TDs) and Kenneth Walker III (168 rushing yards on 23 carries and 2 TDs) whose game-sealing 74-yard touchdown almost single-handedly swung two of my games on Sunday.

The good thing for the Seahawks is that all the Chargers had was Ekeler. We pretty much held everyone else in check (though Mike Williams got his – 7 for 86 and a TD – before spraining his ankle late in the game). The defense did a lot of good things in this one. 3 sacks, a fumble recovery, and a timely pick by Ryan Neal. Moreover, Woolen and Bryant both looked outstanding, and Darrell Taylor (he of the strip sack/fumble recovery combo) is starting to come around.

The story of the day has to be the offense, though. Walker looks like the stud of all studs. So, you know, I’m just waiting for his ankle to get rolled up on, which seems to be how it goes whenever the Seahawks find a running back they really like.

Then, there’s The Resurrected Geno Smith, who’s somehow also better than he’s ever been in his life? This isn’t like a so-so quarterback being propped up by an elite team around him. This is a legitimately GOOD quarterback leading a young team to a winning record! 20 of 27 for 210 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT (off of a deflected ball, that was nevertheless ill-advised, since the receiver was so well covered). He had a couple of dimes to Marquise Goodwin for touchdowns, who got to have his breakout game in a Seahawks uniform (4 for 67 and 2 TDs).

The cool thing is, the Seahawks always had an answer in this one. After we went up 17-0 in the first quarter, the Chargers started clawing back, bringing it to 17-14 with plenty of time left in the second quarter. But, we cooly marched down the field and made it 24-14. More importantly, we didn’t let their 2-minute offense go anywhere in keeping that score where it was at the break.

I somehow didn’t notice, but the Seahawks had a 10+ minute drive in the third quarter to go up 27-14. That really shortened things up, but by no means discouraged further scoring. We gave up a safety after the Chargers downed a punt at the one yard line, but we proceeded to force a 3 & Out off of the free kick, then got another field goal to make it 30-14. Then, another stop by our defense led to the Kenneth Walker burst around the right side; 1 play, 74 yards, game-clinching touchdown. We gave up a meaningless garbage time TD to my boy Ekeler, but then we proceeded to run off the final three and a half minutes to end it in Victory Formation.

The obvious downside to this game is the D.K. Metcalf injury. He had his hands on a ball near the goalline, came down awkwardly, and that was it. Seems to be a knee injury. It immediately took him out for the rest of the game, no questionable tag or anything. So that’s ominous. There will be further testing today, and it sounds like he’s optimistic this won’t be a big deal, but I have concerns!

Namely: Dee Eskridge fucking sucks, and it’s ridiculous that he’s getting as much playing time as he’s getting. He had a stupid penalty, he fumbled a toss by taking his eyes off the ball (though they credited it to Geno, which is asinine), he had zero catches on one target, and he had a meaningless fly-sweep run for 4 yards. This is what he’s here for? The stupid fly-sweep play that never works because it’s the NFL and everyone is fast? He’s brittle as fuck, every hit looks like it’s going to end his season, and I can’t shake the feeling that he’s keeping someone else off the field who is more deserving and who has a higher ceiling. All because we threw away the 2021 draft (where we only selected three guys) and he was our top pick that year.

This team will STRUGGLE if we don’t have Metcalf for the rest of the year. I’m just telling you that right now. Tyler Lockett is and has always been a really good #2, but he’s also getting older, and in spite of avoiding contact at practically every turn (smart, in his case; prolong that career!), he still found himself on the injury report and questionable all week. I love Marquise Goodwin, and as long as he’s healthy, he can be an elite #3. But, he hasn’t been able play a full season since 2017. He WILL get hurt, it’s only a matter of time. It was nice having him in this game, with Metcalf out. But, he could go down as early as next week and it wouldn’t shock me.

That leaves Eskridge (again, sucks) and the rookies at receiver. That makes this team much more predictable and easier to handle if it’s left to the running game and tight ends to do all the heavy lifting. Metcalf is the difference-maker. Metcalf forces defenses to spend untold time and resources in an effort to try and stop him. He takes the best cornerback off of Lockett, who is free to get open among lesser opponents. He opens up the tight ends to feast off of linebackers and linemen. He makes Geno Smith better than he is. Sure, Geno was able to weather the storm against the Chargers, but long term? I’d be very nervous. And I’m not just saying that because I have Metcalf in my dynasty league and don’t want to see him miss any time ever.

Now what we’re looking at is a step up in our litmus tests: a home game against the one-loss Giants. They appear to be the exact photo negative of the Chargers: they’re still good, but it has everything to do with the coaching, and less to do with the talent at quarterback, my apologies to Danny Dimes and whatnot.

If you thought I was befuddled by the Seahawks, HOO BOY do I not understand these Giants!

I would say their schedule has a lot to do with their 6-1 record, but I’m not so sure. Of course, they beat up on the Panthers, Bears, and Jaguars. But, they also defeated the Titans, Packers, and Ravens. I know those teams aren’t as spectacular as we all expected heading into the season, but I still believe they’ll all either be in the playoffs this year, or at least in contention to the bitter end.

They play largely mistake-free football. Dimes doesn’t throw a lot, but he’s running pretty well for a quarterback, and only has 2 picks against 6 TDs. They rely largely on their running game, featuring a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley, who has 726 yards and a 5.1 average per carry. He’s also pacing the team in targets with 30 and is second in receiving yards. He hasn’t played a healthy, full season since his rookie year of 2018, but he’s showing why his talent made him the 2nd overall draft pick.

So, you know, easy peasy, right? Stop Saquon Barkley, win the game! Simple! Why haven’t all these other teams thought of that?

The interesting thing is that their defense isn’t all that amazing. They’re middle of the road against the pass, and legitimately bad against the run. Yet, they allow the 6th fewest points in the league, making good on that Bend Don’t Break promise.

For the Seahawks to win, just know that Barkley is probably going to get his. But, you have to make him work for it. You can’t get gashed for huge plays all day long. You also need to put Danny Dimes into 3rd & medium-to-long situations and force him to beat you with his arm. We know how to play against mobile quarterbacks, so I would hope we can apply that wealth of knowledge to this game.

I don’t think there’s any way we get this game in a shootout. I think it’s going to be low-ish scoring and close. One way or the other, the winner will be decided by 3 points or less.

How about this for making a guess: if D.K. Metcalf is healthy and plays this week, the Seahawks will win. If he’s out, the Seahawks will lose. Either way, the score will be 20-17.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2022: Dynasty Drafting

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There are obvious plusses and minuses to being in a Dynasty League. On the plus side, if you have players you like, you get to keep them forever. If you’re a good team one year, you’re likely to continue being good. The flipside, of course, also is true: if you have players you hate, you might be stuck with them until the next year, when you can drop and replace. If you’re bad one year, you might continue being bad for the foreseeable future. Just like real life!

One thing’s for certain: a lot of pressure is taken off of the draft! We were done well under a half hour, as we only selected five bench spots. With the vast majority of good players already rostered, there was significantly less research to do.

As I noted last week (see the above link), we kept a full roster of starters, so my team going in looked like this:

  • Mac Jones (QB)
  • Justin Fields (QB)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  • Javonte Williams (RB)
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR)
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE)
  • Diontae Johnson (WR)
  • Evan McPherson (K)
  • L.A. Rams (DEF)

I had the third overall draft pick. We do a straight draft – not a snake draft – so I had the third pick in each of the five rounds (except for the fifth round, which I traded for a second 2nd round pick, in a trading away of Justin Tucker last year). It’s not as confusing as I’m making it sound, I promise.

Sadly, I don’t really see a true top-shelf rookie in this class. That doesn’t mean there ISN’T one, but that just means he hasn’t made himself obvious to everyone just yet. There isn’t a Najee Harris or Kyle Pitts in this class, someone who we know is a sure thing right out of the box, sight unseen. That’s unfortunate for someone like me – a bottom feeder, who desperately needs an ace superstar to help bolster my fantasy future – so I was stuck in a pretty shitty spot.

I really wanted Breece Hall. I know he’s no guarantee, but everything I read about him prior to the preseason led me to believe the odds are in his favor on breaking big. He went one pick before me. I’ll just have to hope since he landed on the Jets, they’re going to do everything to Jets it up with him. Travis Etienne was looking to be my second option, but he actually went first overall.

So, I was left between two options I didn’t particularly love: Kenneth Walker III or Dameon Pierce, of the Houston Texans. The upside on Pierce is that he’s the starter from Day 1, and he’s looked pretty good in preseason so far. The downside is that he plays for the Houston Texans; do they even employ offensive linemen? Or are they just stuffed scarecrows spiked on the turf? Who’s to say?! The upside on Walker is that he’s a significant college talent, on a team that loves to run the football, playing behind an injury-prone starter. The downside, however, is that Walker himself is injured, and missed most of the preseason due to a hernia surgery. When will he return? Will he be up to speed? Or, will it be like every other rookie who’s missed significant time in their first preseason, where this is a totally lost year?

I ultimately picked Walker, and I immediately think it was a mistake. Pierce went two spots later in the draft (sandwiching Kenny Pickett, who was a quarterback I was looking at, though not in the first round), and I think he’s going to be a monster.

I hope I made up for it in the second round by taking Tony Pollard. I already have Zeke, but I have failed in the last few years to ever handcuff him. Pollard has been the ultimate handcuff in recent seasons, because not only is he great, but he pretty much splits time on the field and balls out accordingly. One could EASILY make the argument that – right now – Pollard is the better of the two, both in fantasy and in actual NFL games. I’ll be honest, I very nearly considered taking Pollard with my first pick. I have every belief that he’ll take over for Zeke this year, with Zeke being cut before next year. I could very well own the Cowboys’ succession plan at running back! Gotta love it.

With my other second round pick, I was able to nab Gabe Davis, the hotshot #2 receiver for the Bills that everyone is in love with. Wide receiver wasn’t as big of a need for me as, let’s say, QUARTERBACK. But, you gotta have quality depth. And, if Davis pans out like most fantasy experts think he will, I’ve got a real gem on my hands. As it is – SPOILER ALERT – he’ll be starting for me in week 1 against the Rams. So, hopefully we’ll see some immediate dividends.

Then it was time to finally address the quarterback position. I’m now in two leagues where I’m rostering Jameis Winston. What a fucking nightmare.

We’re in a 2-QB league, so clearly there weren’t going to be great options after all the dynasty guys were kept. However, shockingly, Tom Brady was out there. He went 9th overall in the first round (to the team who kept Deshaun Watson, of course). I thought about it, but as I’ve been saying all along, if his O-Line is weak, and his receivers are banged up, Tom Brady is as inept as it gets from a fantasy perspective. I’m not trying to rely on him come playoff time.

Winston was actually the third QB to come off the board. I selected his upside over Matt Ryan’s steady presence (in what’s looking like a run-heavy attack), over Daniel Jones’ incompetence (I still can’t believe he was drafted), over Baker Mayfield’s mediocrity, over Zach Wilson’s atrociousness, and over Jimmy G’s benchwarming. There are a few other guys still out there on waivers, but when you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel like I am, do you really want to devote so many bench spots to the scrubs of all scrubs?

With my last pick, I took Brian Robinson, the running back who got shot in a robbery in D.C. I’ve tried to get him in all my leagues, but succeeded in only 2 of 3. His upside looks fantastic if he can return to full health. Between him and Walker, I’ve got two rookies and I just need one of them to pan out. It’s a great hedge against Javonte Williams too, just in case things go FUBAR there. For now, Robinson goes on my IR, so I get an extra roster spot which I’m planning to use on a defense.

I’ve kind of said all along that I like the bulk of my team, sans quarterback. I don’t LOVE my team. I can say something similar to my Splinter League team – good skill guys, crummy QBs – but at least those skill guys are potential game-breakers. These skill guys are … fine.

Between D.K., CeeDee, Diontae, and Gabe, there has to be three guys I can play every week, barring injury. I’m pretty confident – even with the shaky quarterback play D.K. and Diontae have to endure – that I’ll get good numbers from my wide receiver position.

I’m encouraged by my running backs, now that I have both Dallas runners. But, until Javonte assumes the bellcow role he deserves – or until one of my rookies gets healthy and starts playing significant snaps – I’ll always be a little hampered by my running backs. But, unless you have one of the top 6-8 guys, everyone’s more or less in a time share of sorts.

I’m fine with my TE, I love my kicker, and I think most weeks I’ll be happy with the Rams’ defense. But, here we go again with these fakakta quarterbacks.

Just give me one. Jones or Fields, I don’t care who. ONE of them needs to pan out. Then, I can go into next year hopefully getting the best rookie QB available in what’s looking like a loaded draft. You can bet your ass I’ll be researching those guys HARD.

As things stand, Yahoo has me overwhelmingly finishing in last place, with a 2-12 record. That feels about right. Just gotta start playing quality ball in the consolation bracket.

***

Real quick, let’s look at this week’s matchup. I start the season going up against Space Forcin’, who has been a thorn in my side for a generation now. Here’s my lineup:

  • Mac Jones (QB) @ Mia
  • Jameis Winston (QB) @ Atl
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs. TB
  • Gabe Davis (WR) @ LAR
  • Tony Pollard (RB) vs. TB
  • Javonte Williams (RB) @ Sea
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE) vs. Phi
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) vs. Den
  • Evan McPherson (K) vs. Pit
  • TBD (DEF)

Pretty easy decisions here. Justin Fields is going up against the stout 49ers defense (it was really a choice between him and Jones, as Jameis has to be a lock against a terrible Falcons team). I opted for those receivers over Diontae since he seems to be dealing with a shoulder injury and is questionable. I opted for Pollard over Zeke because they’re going up against the Bucs, who are terrific against the run (maybe Pollard can bounce some things outside, or otherwise catch some passes). Walker is out, since he’s hurt and might not make it back by Monday. And the Rams are out because the Bills have a tremendous offense and might pop 40 points on ’em. I’ll take my chances with whatever defense I can grab tomorrow when waivers convert to free agents.

Here’s my opponent:

  • Patrick Mahomes (QB) @ Ari
  • Trey Lance (QB) @ Chi
  • Davante Adams (WR) @ LAC
  • Chris Godwin (WR) @ Dal
  • Alvin Kamara (RB) @ Atl
  • Antonio Gibson (RB) vs. Jax
  • Dalton Schultz (TE) vs. TB
  • Adam Thielen (WR) vs. GB
  • Matt Prater (K) vs. KC
  • Miami (DEF) vs. NE

He’s had Mahomes, Adams, and Kamara for as long as I can remember. Lance sure seems like a safe bet for steady points at the QB spot. Godwin has been a steal for everyone who’s drafted him. Gibson is starting now, and that’s all that matters this week. Schultz looks fantastic, and might be a sleeper guy at tight end (since Dallas lost Amari Cooper). And all Thielen does is produce at a high level when healthy. It’s week 1, I’d say he’s as healthy as he’s going to get.

So, I’m going to lose. Regardless of the defense I end up with, I’m going to lose. I also have the 8th waiver wire spot, which seems like a travesty considering how bad I am. But, whatever.

What If The Seahawks Got Baker Mayfield?

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All right, calm down people. I’m not sitting here advocating for the Seahawks to acquire Baker Mayfield, in case that’s the conclusion you jumped to. GET OFF MY ASS! We’re just talking things through here.

The situation is this: the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, and gave him a batshit crazy all-guaranteed contract. Somehow, Watson allegedly sexually harassed (if not outright sexually abused) dozens of women, and yet he held all the cards when it came to his future? How does this work? Browns gonna Browns, of course, but it would seem multiple teams were prepared to go to this great length – burning down the league’s leverage in the quarterback contract market for all future superstars – so I guess I would just point to the insanity of the NFL owners themselves. They’ll cater to an alleged abuser, but they won’t even give a tryout to a guy in Colin Kaepernick fighting for social justice. Okay.

Anyway, the Browns have Watson, they also just signed Jacoby Brissett to be his backup, and all the while there’s Baker Mayfield in the final year of his rookie deal, making around $18 million. Not an outrageous sum of money for a viable starting quarterback, but the question remains: IS Baker Mayfield a viable starting quarterback? One that can lead a team to a championship?

It’s obvious to anyone with half a brain that the Browns have shit the bed in this one particular scenario: they want out from under Mayfield’s guaranteed money. Unfortunately, most of the big ticket quarterback moves have already been made. Aaron Rodgers is staying with Green Bay. Russell Wilson is now with the Broncos. The aforementioned Watson is with the Browns. Matt Ryan went to the Colts. Carson Wentz … went to the Commanders. Tom Brady is back with the Bucs. The Vikings are committed to Cousins, the Dolphins are committed to Tua, the Saints look to be committed to Jameis, the Jets are (apparently) committed to Zach Wilson, the Giants are (bafflingly) committed to Danny Dimes. Of the quarterbacks who are reported to be available in trades, Jimmy G should head that list, and so far there haven’t been any takers. So, where’s Baker’s market, exactly?

If the Browns cut Baker, they’re on the hook for his entire salary. But, they obviously can’t keep him around through training camp, because he almost certainly won’t be there, as he’s now demanded a change of scenery.

If I’m the rest of the NFL, and I had the slightest inkling in bringing in Baker, I’d play hardball and force the Browns to cut him. Then, swoop in with a lowball, incentive-laden offer to take him on as a 1-year flier.

No fanbase is excited about Baker Mayfield, though. It’s undeniable that he had a bad season in 2021, so there’s that taste in everyone’s mouths. He did have the torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, though, which undoubtedly affected his on-field play. He’s also, not for nothing, irritatingly over-exposed in TV commercials (based on his personality, I guess, because it’s not a reflection of his performance in actual professional football games). Even before his 2021 injury-plagued season, it’s not like Baker Mayfield was the epitome of an elite franchise quarterback. Odell Beckham’s dad more or less saw to making that clear to everyone with a Twitter feed.

He’s not particularly tall, he’s not particularly athletic, his arm isn’t particularly strong …

Funny Office Space quotes are funny …

And that’s where we are now. I still think the Steelers are the most logical destination for him, because he feels like a Steelers-type quarterback. Plus, he’d get two chances a year to stick it to the Browns, which I’m sure he’d love to do.

But, the Seahawks keep coming up in the rumor mill, and I have some free time this morning, so let’s get into it.

I’m just putting this back out into the universe for anyone who wants to read it: my number one preference for the Seahawks is to tank in 2022. That means, likely, giving Drew Lock as many reps as he can handle and watching him crash and burn spectacularly. That does NOT mean bringing in a middling veteran to annoyingly steal wins we don’t need. Draft a great pass rusher in the first round this year (or an elite left tackle, if one is still available), draft a couple of quality starters in the second round, and wait to draft a quarterback until 2023.

I have no number two preference. All other options for the Seahawks are going to be met with disdain. That includes Baker Mayfield.

If we MUST bring him in, then I would rather we wait for the Browns to cut him, and sign him to that aforementioned lowball, incentive-laden offer. I’ll admit, if that comes to fruition, I’d be intrigued.

I’m curious about what a healthy Baker Mayfield can accomplish, who is savagely pissed off at the world and hyper-motivated to rehabilitate his image. Don’t forget, it wasn’t that long ago when the Browns were lauded for taking him above the rest of his 2018 draft class. Of course, now we know Josh Allen was the true prize, but at first there were lots of questions about Allen’s accuracy and whatnot.

Ryan Tannehill is a name that gets bandied about. As a former Top 10 draft pick who flamed out with his original team, he became a … pretty good quarterback when he was inserted onto the right team. He doesn’t have to do too much, so long as Derrick Henry is healthy, but when he’s asked to step up, he tends to make plays more often than not. Now, EVERY team thinks they can rehab their own guys (to wit: the Giants with Danny Dimes), and it’s becoming sort of a disturbing trend. Most of these quarterbacks flame out for a reason, so giving them opportunity after opportunity is only going to prolong the mediocrity that’s so prevalent at the position.

But, if anyone can be “the next Ryan Tannehill”, I could see it being Baker.

Now, I’m not saying Tannehill is some great shakes, but he’s fine. Could Baker also be fine? Sure, why not?

The thing is, I don’t HATE the rest of the Seahawks’ roster. Assuming, of course, that they don’t trade away D.K. Metcalf. You know. If they do that, then the rebuild is almost certainly going into overdrive. But, with D.K., we’ve got two elite receivers, two stud tight ends, one potentially elite running back (with the high likelihood we draft another), and a pretty solid offensive line (whenever we figure out the left tackle spot).

I also don’t HATE the defense. We’ve got a new coaching staff and a tweaked scheme. Our interior linemen look good, we signed a promising pass rusher away from the Chargers, we’re moving on from Bobby and getting younger at linebacker, we’ve got Darrell Taylor who looks outstanding, and our secondary has a high floor, if not quite so high of a ceiling (unless Tre Brown returns from injury and asserts himself as the next great cornerback on this team). Don’t get me wrong, we still need an infusion of hot talent from the draft, but the bones are there for a quick turnaround (assuming we eventually get the right quarterback).

Could Baker Mayfield join this roster and lead us to a 9-8 record? It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. That might be a worst-case scenario in its own right, though, because 9-8 doesn’t seem like it’ll be good enough to catch a Wild Card spot, even with the expanded playoffs we’ve made our new reality.

However, I firmly do NOT believe Baker joins this roster and makes us a divisional contender. He certainly doesn’t make us a Super Bowl contender. At which point, his addition to this team just smacks of Pete Carroll refusing to rebuild through the draft like we need to.

And this scenario only gets scarier the more the Seahawks have to give up to get him here. The Browns are reportedly looking for a second round draft pick; that’s asinine. I wouldn’t give up anything higher than a 5th rounder, and even then, the Browns better be paying the bulk of his contract.

The thing is, I don’t think the Browns want him to go to the Steelers. And, if they cut him, I think that’s his top destination; I think he’d do everything – including taking a minimum contract from them – to make it happen. So, the Browns should be happy to take a 7th rounder from us – and pay the entirety of his contract – just to get him out of the AFC. Because, there won’t be anyone more motivated to beat up on the Browns if he’s in Pittsburgh (a city that already hates Cleveland with a passion).

In conclusion, Baker Mayfield is my nightmare. But, ultimately I don’t think he’ll be a Seahawk when it’s all said and done. Good luck, Steelers fans.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Toilet Bowl Week

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Hahmez Wah 360 Allstars defeated Snoopy & Prickly Pete 163.00 to 100.60. All of our players were done playing before Monday, but the matchup between the two fantasy teams was over pretty much during the first quarter of the morning games on Sunday. Justin Fields underperformed and got hurt. CeeDee Lamb underperformed and got hurt. The only player on my team worth a damn was Diontae Johnson, and by the time his game started I was already out of it. His 23.1 points spared me from a sub-100 point game, so for that I’m grateful.

Nothing went right. I had Taylor Heinicke on my bench, who scored 31.2 points. I left Clyde Edwards-Helaire in my IR spot (because no one knew until gametime that he’d actually play this week), who got 15.6 points. Of course, I wouldn’t have won regardless of how I set my lineup, but I’m just pointing it out to show the forces at play in my futility.

Taking a look at the immediate results of my trades last week, Justin Tucker outscored Zane Gonzalez 11 to 3. Again, it’s not WHY I lost, but there you go. Mike Gesicki scored an even 10 points for my TE spot; Pat Freiermuth would’ve gotten me 11.1 (not for nothing, but Noah Fant would’ve gotten me 10.9, just to show you what a wasteland tight end has become). The only moderately good news is that A.J. Brown is no longer on my team; he had to leave the game twice last week for two different injuries (and is officially questionable for this week). I’m sure he’ll return and kick some ass, but I gotta tell you, I’m just glad I don’t have to worry every time I play catch-up on Twitter that I’m going to read some tweet to the effect of “A.J. Brown is limping off the field”.

Anyway, the Toilet Bowl is upon us! Snoopy & Prickly Pete is taking on Korky Butchek for a battle to help decide who ends up with the 2021 last place trophy! I’m 2-9, he’s 3-8; he’s got a 50-point lead. If he beats me, he’ll have a 2-game advantage with only two weeks to go, and it will be a virtual lock that I take home the toilet trophy. If I win, we’re tied in record, and I make up some of that deficit in total points (the tiebreaker if our records are the same at season’s end), giving me two weeks to surpass him in total points to avoid the dubious honor.

Here’s my lineup in this do-or-die week:

  • Mac Jones (QB) vs. TEN
  • Taylor Heinicke (QB) vs. SEA
  • Diontae Johnson (WR) @ CIN
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ WFT
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) vs. LV
  • Javonte Williams (RB) vs. LAC
  • Mike Gesicki (TE) vs. CAR
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) vs. TEN
  • Zane Gonzalez (K) @ MIA
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) @ GB

I am majorly irritated CeeDee Lamb is out with a concussion this week. I’m also majorly irritated CEH is on BYE; I don’t understand why he was brought back last week at all! Why risk it if you’ve got a BYE this week?! Anyway, it looks like I’ll be saddled with starting Stevenson in my FLEX, which is far from ideal.

Of course, Korky Butchek has reason to be irritated himself with the various maladies his team is beset with. Here is a possible alignment of players for him to start this week:

  • Joe Burrow (QB) vs. PIT
  • Daniel Jones (QB) vs. PHI
  • DeVonta Smith (WR) @ NYG
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ NE
  • David Montgomery (RB) @ DET
  • A.J. Dillon (RB) vs. LAR
  • George Kittle (TE) vs. MIN
  • D.J. Moore (WR) @ MIA
  • Daniel Carlson (K) @ DAL
  • New Orleans (DEF) @ BUF

He’s actually got plenty of options to play around with on his bench, so we’ll see what the lineup looks like at gametime. I would assume A.J. Brown will be in there if he’s playing. Otherwise, I’m looking at James Robinson going against a poor Falcons defense. I’m a little surprised to see Danny Dimes in there over Trevor Lawrence, but I could see the Giants making an immediate improvement now that they’ve fired Jason Garrett from the offensive coordinator job.

Korky Butchek has a lot of good players who have simply underperformed this year. I’m going to need them to continue underperforming this week, otherwise it’ll be curtains for me.

Splinter League Round-Up!

BUCK FUTTER took out Beer Thirty pretty handily, even though he got a strong comeback effort in that Chargers game with Herbert and Williams. Aaron Rodgers finishing with 50+ points and the rest of my guys (sans Tee Higgins) pulling their weight made things pretty comfortable. I’m still in third place, but only a game behind Beer Thirty, and only two games behind the first place team. I’m in for a dogfight this week with another 7-4 team; it would behoove me to knock out ChubbyDumplings to put a little distance between me and the teams behind me trying to take me out of a playoff spot. The Saints’ running back situation is scaring the living daylights out of me; I need ONE of either Kamara or Ingram to play. If they both have to sit, I’m in trouble.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Thank Fucking Christ I Don’t Have To Think About Fantasy Football Again For Another Year

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  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE – Here We Fucking Go Again
  • Pre-Season Week 2 HERE – Corona-Draft Prep
  • Fantasy Draft HERE – Nobody Beats The Wiz!
  • Week 1 HERE – Crisis Averted!
  • Week 2 HERE – Everything That Could Go Wrong
  • Week 3 HERE – Some Nobody Did, In Fact, Beat The Wiz!
  • Week 4 HERE – Literally Everyone Beats The Fucking Wiz
  • Week 5 HERE – Signs Of Life!
  • Week 6 HERE – And Tua All A Good Night
  • Week 7 HERE – Tua Be Or Not Tua Be, That Is The Question
  • Week 8 HERE – Tua Thine Own Self Be True
  • Week 9 HERE – Tua The Window, Tua The Wall!!!
  • Week 10 HERE – Tua Infinity & Beyond!
  • Week 11 HERE – Tua Err Is Human
  • Week 12 HERE – Although We’ve Come Tua The End Of The Road
  • Week 13 HERE – Tua No Avail
  • Playoffs HERE – It’s Time To Pound Some Cunth!

Piss on this game and anyone who plays it!

Nobody Beats The Wiz lost its 5th Place Game to conclude things, meaning I’ll be drafting sixth overall next season. What’s worse, Pound Some Cunth just got ANNIHILATED by Vinegar Strokes, 197.13 to 151.17 in the Splinter League this week. It was (fantasy) bad all around this weekend! The less said about it, the better.

Actually no. First, let me reiterate just how FUCKING STUPID fantasy football is! My all-world stud quarterback, Russell Wilson, should be a no-brainer when we’re talking about who to start in a 2-QB league like mine. What does he do? He goes up against a stout Washington defense and gets me 15.27 points. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts – a rookie making his second-ever career start – goes on the road to Arizona (with a defense that can do a lot of damage to an inexperienced quarterback with their disguised blitz packages and whatnot) and absolutely fucks their (fantasy) shit up to the tune of 52.83 points. And I’m supposed to use my fucking crystal ball to predict this, to win a fucking (fantasy) playoff game. Who would EVER come to that conclusion ahead of time?! It’s IDIOTIC! WHAT THE FUCK ARE WE EVEN DOING HERE?!

How an entire season can hinge on a decision this asinine is beyond me. In real life, you would NEVER in your WILDEST fucking dreams consider benching Russell Wilson for Jalen Hurts. Yet, in fantasy, you’re a fucking pissant moron if you don’t somehow read the tea leaves and sense this. Unbe-fucking-lievable.

All right, rant over. Probably. I could always have another aneurysm between now and the end of the post.

Getting back to the intention of this column, let’s now re-forget about the Splinter League and get back to Nobody Beats The Wiz, the latest in a long line of huge, buttfucking disappointments. I have decisions to make between now and the start of next season (so, thankfully, I have many months before this decision will be official), namely: who will be my four keepers?

Remember my keepers for this year?

  • Carson Wentz (QB)
  • Daniel Jones (QB)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  • Josh Jacobs (RB)

Two of those guys (the quarterbacks) weren’t on my team any longer by season’s end. Ezekiel Elliott was a tremendous disappointment once Dak Prescott went out injured. And Josh Jacobs was an okay player, but obviously not a difference-maker. Not someone who ever single-handedly swung any games for me. Neither was he someone who consistently got me around 20 points per week (those would be the two hallmarks of QUALITY keepers in our league).

The fact that I made the playoffs at all is almost impossible to fathom, and speaks to how very lucky my team was this year.

So, here are the players I have on my roster at press time:

  • Kirk Cousins (QB)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  • Josh Jacobs (RB)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)
  • Rashaad Penny (RB)
  • A.J. Brown (WR)
  • Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  • Tee Higgins (WR)
  • Jerry Jeudy (WR)
  • Deebo Samuel (WR)
  • Rashard Higgins (WR)
  • Irv Smith (TE)
  • Harrison Butker (K)
  • L.A. Rams (DEF)

You can cross out Smith, Butker, and the defense, as well as Kirk Cousins right off the bat. They are non-starters in the keeper game. From there, let’s look at the running backs.

Ezekiel Elliott is a really interesting one for me. 2020 is just his fifth season in the league. I did not assume that this would be his last year with me, coming in. But, he signed a huge deal before last season and already appears to be suffering the consequences of Overpaid Running Back Syndrome. He looked mediocre this year! Even before Dak went down, he didn’t look quite right. Now, a lot of that might have to do with the injuries along the Cowboys’ offensive line. If they can get that fixed up ahead of next season – and, of course, if Dak returns by Week 1 – then I think he’s a candidate for a bounce-back year. But, at some point – and some point relatively SOON – Zeke is going to fall off the cliff. And when he does, he will be totally unstartable. In the NFL, it’s usually better to cut someone a year too early than a year too late. I might want to adopt that for fantasy as well.

Josh Jacobs would be a “safe” choice to be one of my keepers. I imagine we’ve seen what his ceiling looks like, and it looks like his 2020 season. Through 13 games, he has 907 yards and a 3.7 yard average. He doesn’t catch enough balls to be elite, and his fantasy numbers are propped up by the 10 rushing touchdowns he’s accrued. That, and the fact that the Raiders haven’t drafted someone to significantly eat into his carries, leads me to lean towards a Yes when it comes to keeping Jacobs.

CEH is probably out for me. As my top draft pick, I was hoping for a long and fruitful (fantasy) career with him as one of my lead guys. But, the shame of it is that the Chiefs just don’t run the ball enough (especially at or near the goalline), and they’ve got too many viable running backs who are all basically the same. Unless I read reports that Kansas City is going to make a concerted effort to declare CEH their lead back, I think I’ll expose him to the rest of the league to snap up.

Finally, I picked up Rashaad Penny – the Seahawks’ running back who just returned from injury this past week – on the off-chance we let Chris Carson walk in free agency and Penny becomes the #1 of this team. I don’t think that’s very likely, but anyway it’s more important for me to make sure these types of guys aren’t kept by OTHER teams. I want Penny available to be drafted (by me) if it turns out he is the starter.

In the last couple weeks, I made a big push to pick up a lot of young receivers, so that’s what I find most interesting among my options.

A.J. Brown feels like a definite keeper to me. He’s the only guy I feel REALLY good about.

There are three other guys I’ll be watching VERY closely in the offseason, to see how their teams look and how their prospects will be in 2021: Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, and Brandon Aiyuk. It took Aiyuk about half of this – his rookie – season before he was really incorporated into the 49ers’ offense. But, once he assumed lead receiver duties (helped by Deebo Samuel’s injury-plagued year), he’s been quite effective. Other than a week missed to COVID, Aiyuk has averaged in the 20’s or high teens in 6 of the 49ers’ last 8 games. What’s unknown is how Aiyuk will look next to a fully-healthy Deebo in 2021. But, presumably Jimmy G will be back at quarterback next year, so that should help both of those guys a lot. Lamb was one of the better-looking rookie receivers until Dak went out; assuming Dak is healthy, Lamb might be a no-brainer. And, Higgins was ALSO one of the better-looking rookie receivers until Joe Burrow went out; assuming Burrow will make it back, Higgins should return to his former glory (and maybe then some).

None of my other receivers are likely to be kept by me, but again, I just want them among the draftable talent pool for next year. I don’t know what the rest of my league is thinking with their keepers, but there’s no point in helping them out when I don’t have to.

Finally, to Tua or not to Tua? That is the biggest (fantasy) question.

Going into a season with zero fantasy keepers at quarterback seems reckless. But, let’s look at it realistically here: I went into 2020 with Wentz and Dimes and came out with Cousins and Tua and still managed to make the playoffs. What I NEED more than anything else is talented players I can rely on – week-in and week-out – to provide me steady points. Keeping four receivers seems idiotic, but keeping two receivers and two running backs might be something to consider! Likewise, keeping three receivers and one running back could be an option (though, a little overkill, since we have just the one FLEX spot, and none of my receivers are what you would call super-elite).

I would need to see quite a bit more from Tua than what I’ve seen so far this season. At this point, Tua has started seven games. He has four games over 20 points. That’s pretty terrible. He has two games over 25 points (which is kind of the baseline average you’d want out of a QB in our league). And, of course, just the one game over 30; no 40 or 50-point explosions you see out of some of the game’s best. Those are the types of games that single-handedly swing weeks in your favor.

Now, Tua is young. He’s still getting his feet wet. He’s on a team that’s contending for a playoff spot and it’s pretty clear they haven’t taken the training wheels off of him. Nevertheless, if they do make the playoffs, I’ll be watching him VERY closely. At some point, they will be down late in a game, and I’ll need to see him do something remarkable to make me a believer.

Otherwise, if this is all he is – what we’ve seen from him in his almost half-a-season – then I feel more than confident exposing him to the draft next year. I highly doubt anyone in the Top 5 picks will snap him up, so if I REALLY want him, I should be able to get him back.

But, keeping guys based on potential? Fool me once, Danny Dimes, shame on you. Fool me twice, Tua?

The Seahawks Just Need To Get Through These Next Few Games In One Piece (and Also Some Gambling Stuff)

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I’ll go through the motions of talking about the Giants this week, and the Jets after that, and the Football Team from Washington D.C. after that, but my heart won’t really be in it, because I have no respect for any of these teams. They’re all inferior, deeply-flawed teams that should lose to the Seahawks. I can’t promise these games will be easy to watch. I can’t tell you the Seahawks won’t make you want to throw your remote control across the room as they sometimes struggle against teams they should easily defeat by double-digits. But, just as the game against the Eagles ultimately proved, the Seahawks are better and they SHOULD prevail.

So. The New York Football Giants. What can you say? They’re 4-7 and somehow tied for first place in the NFC East. They are winners of three in a row (and 4 of their last 6), but those victories are against Washington (twice), Philly, and Cincy (who have a combined 9 wins this season). Of our next three opponents, this is probably the best, but since they have to come all the way out here, I would argue this isn’t the toughest matchup of the three.

The Giants’ strengths lie exclusively on the defensive side of the ball. They’re in the upper half of the league in sacks. They’re in the top 10 in fewest yards given up. They’re fifth in fewest rushing yards given up, but they’re only middle-of-the-pack in passing yards given up. We should be able to throw on them if we want to; if we try to force the issue on the ground, it could be a long, frustrating game. They’re tied for fourth in takeaways, evenly split with nine interceptions and nine fumble recoveries; the fumble number is on the higher side, which shows that they’ve been relatively lucky in that regard to date.

Offensively, the Giants are a fucking disaster. Daniel Jones has proven to be thoroughly inept in his second year in the league, regressing quite a bit after a promising rookie season (I think it’s no coincidence that the Giants just hired Jason Garrett before the season, who was a mediocre head coach and – before that – coordinator for the Cowboys for many years); he’s too prone to turning the ball over (which is how the Giants can be tied for fourth in most takeaways, yet only have a +2 turnover differential), which totally negates his plus-ability to run with the football.

And yet, Jones was injured last week and probably won’t even play. I can’t tell if that’s a good thing or not. Colt McCoy is a career backup (for a reason), but the Seahawks have shown that they can struggle against these guys. They tend to be more careful with the football, and play us tough in low-scoring, hard-fought affairs. The ceiling for the Giants’ offense this Sunday isn’t very high, but the floor isn’t very low (compared to the floor for Jones, which is through the Earth’s fucking crust, with how he can cough up the football).

Besides the new offensive coordinator, the Giants (and Jones) have struggled behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. I don’t know if they’re super injured or just bad in general, but I suspect probably both. They’ve also suffered a rash of injuries to all of their wide receivers and their superstar running back in Saquon Barkley. So, again, REALLY low ceiling here.

I can’t envision a scenario where the Seahawks lose this one, but the only way it’s close is if we continuously ram our heads against a brick wall trying to get the running game going, and Wilson has one of his infrequent turnover-prone performances. By keeping the game close, I suppose it’s conceivable that the Giants could have the ball late, down only a small handful of points, driving for a go-ahead score. But, it feels like the perfect storm of fuckery would have to happen for this to be our reality. I’m not buying it.

Give me Seahawks 23, Giants 13, which – no joke – is the spread and the total points listed in Vegas (SIGHT UNSEEN, mind you!), so I think we might be on to something here!

In unrelated gambling news, my Vegas trip has been postponed, and I mostly forgot to set up any fake bets last week. I did one 3-team, 10-point teaser: moving Washington to +13 over Dallas (Washington won outright), Atlanta to +13 over the Raiders (they also won outright), and Green Bay to +1.5 over the Bears (they also won outright). My other teaser, a 2-team, 6-point one, was Washington to +9 and New England to +8.5 over the Cardinals (New England won outright). So, not too bad! I also had Denver in that 3-team teaser (in place of Atlanta), but that was prior to all of their quarterbacks being placed on the COVID IR (nevertheless, a loss is a loss when you place the fake bet). Still, 2-1 on the week isn’t bad.

Here’s the bets I’m looking at for this weekend:

  • 3-team tease:
    • SEA to PK over NYG
    • GB to +1.5 over PHI
    • AZ to +13 over LAR
  • 3-team tease:
    • SEA to PK over NYG
    • GB to +1.5 over PHI
    • HOU to +13.5 over IND
  • 3-team tease:
    • SEA to PK over NYG
    • GB to +1.5 over PHI
    • NYJ to +19 over LV
  • 3-team tease
    • SEA to PK over NYG
    • GB to +1 over PHI
    • MIN to PK over JAX
  • 3-team tease
    • SEA to PK over NYG
    • GB to +1.5 over PHI
    • CLE to +16 over TEN
  • 3-team tease
    • SEA to PK over NYG
    • GB to +1.5 over PHI
    • NE to +9 over LAC

Also, here are some college bets, for shits n’ giggles:

  • Appalachian State -2.5 over UL Lafayette
  • Ohio State -24 over Michigan State
  • Oklahoma State & TCU over 51.5 points
  • Rutgers +11.5 over Penn State
  • Marshall -23.5 over Rice
  • Texas A&M -6.5 over Auburn
  • Notre Dame -33.5 over Syracuse
  • Buffalo -11.5 over Ohio
  • Buffalo & Ohio over 58
  • Indiana +14 over Wisconsin
  • Iowa St. -6.5 over West Virginia
  • Washington -11.5 over Stanford
  • Coastal Carolina +10 over BYU
    • Also Coastal Carolina on the Money Line at +280
  • Oregon -9 over Cal
  • WSU +12.5 over USC

I’d put the most money on App State, Indiana, Buffalo & Ohio over, Washington, and everything Coastal Carolina.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua Infinity & Beyond!

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I mean, this is getting pretty silly. If I were anyone else in the league, I’d be FURIOUS right now at the undeserved success of Nobody Beats The Wiz. My 141.91 to 126.20 victory over Crazy N8’s Prostates takes me to 5-5 on the season, which is currently good for sixth place in the standings (the sixth and final playoff spot, if the season ended today). This is in spite of the fact that I have the third-fewest total points scored (1,495.74), and two people on the outside looking in have outscored me. Every other player in the playoffs with me have AT LEAST 85 more points. Crazy N8’s Prostates, for example, is a team I’ve somehow managed to defeat twice this season; he has 255 more points than me! It’s utter lunacy.

How did I win? Well, Crazy N8’s Prostates underscored his projections by over 45 points. Done and done. Drew Brees was injured before he could get to 10 points. After Josh Allen’s 30.2 points, his next-highest scorer was Kareem Hunt with 16.2. Four of his players scored in single-digits.

Meanwhile, it was more or less a team effort on Nobody Beats The Wiz’s part. Josh Jacobs blew up with almost 30 points. Brandon Aiyuk had almost 20. Tua didn’t have the best game, but just got over 20 points in a solid effort. Only two of my guys scored in single digits; everyone else was in the 10-14 range.

Which includes Carson Wentz at 10.8. This is two games in a row (with a BYE week in the middle) where he has COMBINED for less than 20 points, against really inferior competition. Kirk Cousins, meanwhile, had a vastly superior defense to go up against and scored over 22 points for my bench. My friend asked me over the weekend who my four keepers would be for next year, if I had to choose now (which, thankfully, I do not). He asked if Wentz would be one of them, and right now I have to say no! He’s not even close! I’ll be watching all of my receivers for that fourth and final keeper spot (for now, it’s Tua, Ezekiel Elliott, and Josh Jacobs as the top three, with A.J. Brown holding down the 4-spot). I might take Wentz as a flier for my third quarterback job next year, but I can safely say I’ll be in the market for a new second QB.

In Last Week Roster Move News, I picked up Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders before my game, dropping Noah Fant (who was picked up by Sloane N Steady, who started him and got all of 4.8 points for his efforts). Dallas Goedert didn’t do a whole helluva lot better for me, with 7.3, but I blame Wentz for ALL of that.

In Waiver Wire News, I got up to the #3 priority heading into this week. So, I decided to use that to my advantage. Jameis Winston figures to be getting starter’s snaps in Drew Brees’ absence the next few weeks, so I decided to put in a claim for him. Why not? If he can help me in the short term, maybe that’ll be enough to help me crack the playoffs. Since Jameis is only a temporary rental, I don’t think I had a lot of competition for his services, but I bet Crazy N8 sure is annoyed! Considering he just traded for Brees a few weeks back and for the simple fact that he’s an easy guy to annoy in general; maybe NEXT time he’ll take my trade offer more seriously!

Did I also grab Jameis out of spite and am now needlessly hogging four viable quarterbacks for no good reason? WHO’S TO SAY?!

My opponent this week is Colinoscopy Time. He is 7-3, in second place in the league, and has scored the fourth-most points (91 more points than me on the season). As probably the guy least-invested in fantasy football – and anything Internet/technology-related in general – it’s infuriating that he not only won the trophy last year, but is continuing to rampage through our league in spite of all that is good and decent in the world, but, you know, that’s how it works sometimes. Here are the guys I’ll be playing, in hopes of slowing down the juggernaut:

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) @ DEN
  • Jameis Winston (QB) vs. ATL
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ BAL
  • Jerry Jeudy (WR) vs. MIA
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) vs. KC
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ MIN
  • Dallas Goedert (TE) @ CLE
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) @ LV
  • Harrison Butker (K) @ LV
  • Indianapolis (DEF) vs. GB

These are some underwhelming matchups. My favorite one is probably Jameis, but I’m not even 100% confident that he’ll actually be the starter! The Saints could always throw Taysom Hill in there if they really wanted to fuck with me. Even if Jameis does start, he will have had exactly one week of practice to prepare; plus he’s notorious for turning the ball over millions of times. Could be dicey. Otherwise, I’m hoping Zeke comes back looking fresh and sharp against the Vikings, but I won’t be holding my breath.

I’ll say this about my quarterbacks, if I were at all impartial, I’d be starting Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL) over Tua, because the Cowboys’ defense is ALMOST as bad as it gets (thank you, Seahawks). My only reservation is really to preserve my sanity. If Tua stinks, whatever, it’s kind of to be expected; he’s making the third start of his career, it’s on the road, a mile above sea level, and Denver’s defense is a little underrated. BUT, if Kirk Cousins stinks, and I start him over Tua, I’m going to be FURIOUS with myself for backing the underwhelming, low-ceiling play over the exciting should-be centerpiece of my team for the next decade. I learned this lesson last year; every time I sat Danny Dimes in a matchup I thought was tough, he ended up scoring 40 points for my bench. I’m not going through that again! Also, not for nothing, but I could see the Vikings running the ball 40 times, with Dalvin Cook scoring another 30 fantasy points.

The 49ers being on BYE this week hurts me and my opponent equally. I catch an extra little break by dodging Stefon Diggs. But, as you’ll see below, he has MORE than enough talent to mop the floor with me:

  • Deshaun Watson (QB) vs. NE
  • Ben Roethlisberger (QB) @ JAX
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) vs. ARI
  • Jakeem Grant (WR) @ DEN
  • Derrick Henry (RB) @ BAL
  • D’Andre Swift (RB) @ CAR
  • Robert Tonyan (TE) @ IND
  • Jakobi Meyers (WR) @ HOU
  • Zane Gonzalez (K) @ SEA
  • Minnesota (DEF) vs. DAL

Great quarterbacks, elite running backs (Swift is getting better every week, it seems), Metcalf is sure to have a HUGE bounce-back game after being largely ignored last week, Meyers looks like the only viable offensive weapon for the Pats. There’s just a lot to like about this squad.

How many times can I keep lucking out by my opponents under-performing? Yet, it’s my only play; it’s the only way I can seemingly win games! So, hopefully, it continues to happen the rest of the year, because I need all the help I can get.