Tag Archives: Gardner Minshew

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2023: I Lost A Game I Should Have Won

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Consider Week 9 my first game I lost because I lost Cousins.

This was a pillow fight any way you slice it. 137.65 to 113.15. To be fair, no one had a super strong week; scoring was down leaguewide in week 9. It happens. But, I was the worst of the lot. 25 more points would’ve gotten me the win. Let’s explore.

For starters, I had Bryce Young in there, pick-sixing his way to 6.75 points. Josh Dobbs – Minnesota’s backup by virtue of just joining the team last week – entered the game early and scored over 30 points. That’s the difference, right there. If we can assume Cousins would’ve scored around 30, it’s a slam dunk case.

But, I would invite you to join me further down my roster. I started Josh Downs. He was banged up heading into the week, but he still seemed like a safer bet than Addison (remember, Jaren Hall was the starter, and presumably would’ve struggled the entire game had he stayed healthy). If Cousins was in there, Addison would’ve also been in there. As it was, Addison scored 10.2 points for my bench; Downs scored 2 points for my roster. If we project those 10.2 points across the board, all Cousins would’ve needed to do was get me less than 25. Seems VERY reasonable.

I’m chalking it up to the loss of Cousins. It didn’t help that Walker did fuck-all, or Pollard continued driving his own personal shit train, or Jordan Love continues to be a total bum. Now, I’m 4-5 and just barely clinging to 6th place. I’m still at least a week away from Justin Fields returning, I’m like two weeks from Kyren Williams coming back, and Bryce Young is looking like the bust of the century.

In roster shake-up news, I dropped Downs for Tank Dell. For starters, how do you not like the name Tank?! I get it, this screams of recency bias. Dell just had a 30-point game; Downs hasn’t been great the last two weeks. But, looking long-term, it seems like Houston really has something in C.J. Stroud (I’ll never forgive myself for totally dismissing him in the draft, taking Young over him, much the same way the Panthers did). I think Stroud and Dell are going to develop an amazing rapport the next few years. If we’re thinking possible keepers, it might boil down to Addison or Dell. Downs is nice too, but knowing Anthony Richardson will be back next year, I find it hard to believe he’s ever going to be an amazing passer. He might be the second coming of Lamar Jackson – which is very high praise – but when has Lamar ever broken big with a wide receiver? Never. I can see Downs being frustrated a lot in future years; meanwhile, Stroud should be bombing it up and down the field for the next decade, and Dell could very well be the primary beneficiary. Either way, this was my last opportunity to pick up Dell before he’s rostered for good. And, I have a gut feeling that Minshew is going to turn back into a pumpkin the more he plays. I could see the Colts really falling apart as the season concludes.

All that being said, spoiler alert, Tank Dell is on my bench this week. Here’s my team:

  • Bryce Young (QB) @ Chi
  • Jordan Love (QB) @ Pit
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs. NYG
  • Terry McLaurin (WR) @ Sea
  • Kenneth Walker (RB) vs. Was
  • Tony Pollard (RB) vs. NYG
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE) vs. NO
  • Alexander Mattison (RB) vs. NO
  • Dustin Hopkins (K) @ Bal
  • N.Y. Jets (DEF) @ LV

I actually don’t hate starting Young this week. Why should I be afraid of the Bears’ defense? I very much DO hate starting Love this week, because I think he’s going to be sacked 9,000 times and throw a couple picks. But, I have no choice, because Fields is out, and Aidan O’Connell is going up against the Jets (where he will be destroyed). I thought O’Connell looked fine last week, but he also didn’t really have to do a lot. I’d like to see him actually get into the endzone before I give him a start. As for Love, I will say that I’ve seen teams move the ball against the Steelers quite a bit; I feel like he can have an okay game if he can figure out how to avoid turnovers. I’m not expecting the moon or the stars here; just give me 18-20 points and let’s see if the rest of my team can pick up the slack.

I like McLaurin’s steadiness over Addison’s boom or bust potential. Until I see Dobbs actually find his receivers (and not just check down to running backs and tight ends), I’m limiting my exposure to receivers in my lineup. Enter Mattison, who had a great week last week, now that he’s playing solo thanks to Cam Akers being lost for the year. As for Scary Terry, I think he could have a monster game against the Seahawks.

CeeDee Lamb has been as elite as advertised; he’s got a tasty matchup this week. So does Pollard; if he’s ever going to figure it the fuck out, it should be against a terrible Giants team. I’m concerned about Walker’s health, but that’s why I rostered Charbonnet. Hopefully Walker makes it back okay, because I think he could be good for a couple of scores in this one.

I’m hoping for lots of Browns field goals, and I’m hoping for a 40-burger from the Jets defense. I hope they just KILL the Raiders!

This week, I play the same guy twice, in two different leagues. In this one, he’s You Dropped Your Dildo and he’s somehow in 8th place in spite of having the 4th-most points scored. His roster is full of killers:

  • Lamar Jackson (QB) vs. Cle
  • Dak Prescott (QB) vs. NYG
  • Ja’Marr Chase (WR) vs. Hou
  • Garrett Wilson (WR) @ LV
  • Austin Ekeler (RB) vs. Det
  • Jonathan Taylor (RB) @ NE
  • Logan Thomas (TE) @ Sea
  • Mike Evans (WR) vs. Ten
  • TBD (K) vs. TBD
  • Pittsburgh (DEF) vs. GB

He’s got Waddle on a BYE and Danny Dimes on IR, but that doesn’t matter a whole helluva lot. There’s a chance Chase sits out, but he’s got Joe Mixon on his bench. It’s a total nightmare playing You Dropped Your Dildo! Hopefully, the Browns can slow down Lamar, and hopefully Dallas hands off for all of their touchdowns, but I’m not holding my breath. The skill guys are all fuckin’ elite, and he’s got the Steelers’ defense to boot! I have no chance.

I Don’t See The Downside To Letting Geno Smith Hit Free Agency

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Of course I don’t, because I don’t really want to see the Seahawks re-signing him. But, I’m resigned to the fact that he will be back, because that’s just how it works. NFL teams can’t help themselves. It’s a zero-risk league; you find what works and you beat it into the fucking ground.

For the purposes of this exercise, though, let’s pretend that I do want Geno Smith back. That I’m more than happy with a 9-8 team that barely squeaks into the playoffs. That mediocrity is my be-all, end-all in life. I was listening to Brock & Salk the other day, and I think they were torn on the matter. Someone said something about how he expects Geno to hit free agency, and Salk said if that happens, he’s as good as gone, because some team will blow the Seahawks away with an over-the-top offer.

I don’t agree with that. I mean, sure, there might be some other team willing to pay $32+ million per year to nab Geno. But, you’re making a big assumption when you opine that the Seahawks might get some sort of discount if we act fast and lock him up before free agency starts.

Frankly, I don’t see any reason why Geno Smith would want to avoid the open market. This is his first – and maybe ONLY – chance to make some real money in this league. His value has never been higher, and it will probably never BE higher than it is right this moment. He has every right to hold out for the absolute highest offer, whatever that may be. Unless …

Conversely, yeah, if you’re the Seahawks – and you want Geno to return – you have to be nervous about a bidding war starting up among the quarterback-needy teams in the league. There are PLENTY of organizations out there who would love to have his services. Geno would be a vast improvement for so many teams! And, as they always say, it only takes one to become enamored with him. Unless …

What if there isn’t the market everyone expects for Geno? Well then, it would be in Geno’s best interests to sign now and avoid the catastrophe that is the league lowballing him all offseason. Conversely, maybe the Seahawks would be wise to wait and see. Maybe instead of approaching that Franchise Tag figure, we’re free to sign him for considerably less.

Why don’t we take this opportunity to look around the league: who are the teams that need a quarterback, and who are the veteran quarterbacks available?

New York Jets – That’s a good team built to win right now, only missing a quarterback. I think they very much present a potential landing spot for a veteran. Would they want to bring Geno back after he failed so miserably with them the first time? I’m dubious.

Baltimore Ravens – It looks like they might move on from Lamar Jackson. But, they have 2022 Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley they could always turn to.

Houston Texans – They have the second overall pick and almost certainly will draft someone.

Indianapolis Colts – They have the fourth overall pick and almost certainly will draft someone.

Las Vegas Raiders – They’ve abandoned Derek Carr and could cut him with relatively little in the way of dead money; they could also try to trade him, though I don’t know what that market looks like. They have the seventh overall pick, but I could see them going either way (veteran vs. rookie).

Washington Commanders – They don’t strike me as a team that can be happy with the guys they’ve got. Like the Jets, they seem close to contention right now, just needing to shore up the quarterback spot. I’d bank on a veteran going their way.

New York Giants – They only need someone if they opt to let Danny Dimes walk. If that’s the case, I’d say they go with a veteran.

The Entire NFC South – The Falcons have the eighth overall pick and a third round quarterback from a year ago. I could see them going either way, but if I were them, I’d just draft another guy and have the two young guns duke it out. The Bucs are losing Tom Brady and don’t appear to have anyone in reserve; they seem to be a likely landing spot for a vet. The Saints would be idiotic to run it back with Andy Dalton, and Jameis Winston apparently isn’t any better otherwise he would’ve been in there when their season was at stake. I could also see them going for a vet. As for the Panthers, I think it’s full rebuild time; they have the ninth pick this year, go get a rookie.

Seattle Seahawks – duh.

Besides the Seahawks, there’s eleven teams. Two, for sure, will go with rookies. Maybe up to four. On the market, we figure to have the aforementioned Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, maybe Aaron Rodgers (if the Packers opt to trade him and go with Jordan Love), Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Cooper Rush, Gardner Minshew, and Matt Ryan. If I’m the Seahawks, I don’t know if I’m enamored with any of those guys. If I’m the rest of the league, though, maybe Geno Smith isn’t looking too bad?

I guess we’ll see. As someone who is against paying $32+ million for Geno Smith, I’m in favor of letting him test the waters. Let him get that somewhere else. Because there’s always the chance that the rest of the NFL sees his 2022 season as something of a fluke. Or, at the very least, a product of a very specific environment, that isn’t likely to be replicated just anywhere.

Ultimately, the question I have for myself is: is there a number I would like to have Geno come back to the Seahawks at? Maybe $20-$25 million. That doesn’t seem super realistic, but I could see myself being comfortable with that sort of deal, over two or three years.

Seahawks Death Week 2022: Quarterbacks On The 2023 Roster

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I blathered on and on about the rest of the Seahawks free agents yesterday (just prior to one of them re-signing for a big-money payday), now it’s time to talk about the most important position (of which we currently have zero on the 2023 roster), and the two guys who are set to be unrestricted free agents this year: Geno Smith and Drew Lock.

I think it’s fair to say 2022 didn’t go how I expected AT ALL. I was under the impression that this team was bound and determined to hand the starting job to Drew Lock in the pre-season. We’ll never know if that was accurate or not, since he got COVID right before the game he would’ve started. Nevertheless, just watching the games, it was clear who the better man was: Geno Smith, hands down.

That isn’t saying much, because the Seahawks’ offense in the pre-season was the worst I’d seen in ages. They couldn’t move the ball for shit! It was fucking embarrassing. Which led to my extremely dour prognosis heading into the regular season, that the Seahawks wouldn’t win more than 3-4 games. They more than doubled that.

So, yeah, I’m bad at my job is what I’m getting at. I mean, the job of Fan/Blogger doesn’t pay anything, so you get what you pay for, but still.

I feel like – if I had to rank all expectations around this team – the least likely would’ve been the possibility that either of these guys would be back in 2023. Yet, here we are, with the very real possibility that BOTH might return.

Obviously, there’s chatter around Geno Smith coming back on a big money deal. That’s what happens when you have statistically one of the best (if not THE best) seasons in franchise history. There’s lots of speculation of anywhere from 2-4 years, and anywhere from $70 million to $150 million. So, this is a serious thing we’re about to walk into.

I’m firmly entrenched in the camp that has reservations about this move. I don’t fully trust Geno Smith in the big games. I don’t like the thought of tying up so much of our cap to him, especially when we have so many other holes we need to fill. It forces us to really nail the draft in ways we’ve only done once or twice since the heyday of 2010-2012.

Brock & Salk had an interesting thought exercise this week: would you rather have Geno Smith at whatever it’s going to cost to keep him (over $30 million per year), or Drew Lock and a $20 million defensive lineman (meaning, one of the very best D-linemen in the league). I don’t really know how to answer that.

They keep saying things about how the Seahawks coaches like what they’ve seen out of Drew Lock, putting it out there that he’s been doing well in practice and could conceivably be a viable option to take over as starter in this offense. I don’t know what to say to that either. I can take their word for it, I guess, but every time I’ve seen Drew Lock on the field, he’s been a nightmare. Also, how good could he possibly look in regular season practices when Geno is the starter and ostensibly getting the bulk of the reps? It all sounds fishy, like the team is leaking rumors of Lock’s competence in hopes Geno’s price will somehow be driven down. The logic isn’t totally there, but I still don’t believe Lock is worth a damn.

What is Drew Lock supposed to command on the open market? He’s a failed high-round draft pick, a failed starter in this league, and he failed to beat out Geno Smith when his value was remarkably low. You’re telling me there’s an organization out there who believes in Drew Lock, and is going to offer him on the high-end of a backup quarterback contract? As if he’s Gardner Minshew or Cooper Rush or Jameis Winston?

He should get the fucking minimum and like it! And be grateful he’s not reduced to the scrap heap of the XFL or USFL.

But, if what they’re saying is true, and Lock has looked good in practice, then why wouldn’t you pay him a low-dollar amount to be the starter (with incentives, of course) and then go out and trade for a top-of-the-line defensive pass rusher? Pair that guy with whoever you get with the 5th pick, then go after a lower first/high second round quarterback prospect.

Honestly, I’d love for the Seahawks to take that risk. Let Geno walk. See what he commands on the open market, and more importantly, see what he looks like in a different offensive scheme, behind a possibly-worse offensive line. I bet he reverts to the Geno Of Old real damn quick.

Go balls to the wall and believe in the Shane Waldron/Sean McVay system! Put anyone back there and see how they do! Cheap out on a veteran and go after draft picks to see if we hit on someone special!

Here’s my outlook on things; you may not agree with me and that’s fine. But, I feel like we’ve hit pretty close to the ceiling of what Geno Smith has to offer. I think he’s good enough to keep us middle-of-the-pack. He can get us into the playoffs, but he can’t lead us on a deep playoff run. If we had an elite team around him – like the 49ers – then it might be doable.

I’d rather risk it with a veteran making the minimum and spend our free agent dollars on superstars at other positions of need. I’d rather go to the quarterback well in the draft year after year until we hit on a stud. Then, ride that stud on his rookie deal as far as he’ll take us. If we fail, then fine, we draft higher and get more quality bites at the apple. If the cheap player(s) succeed, then great, we know the offensive scheme is great and can continue to reload at the QB spot with reduced capital, to continue bolstering our roster elsewhere.

I’m not gonna lie to you, I haven’t been this enamored with a team since the Seahawks of the L.O.B. days, but I really am fascinated with what the 49ers are doing this year. If I didn’t hate their fans and their organization so much, I’d be actively rooting for them the rest of this year’s playoffs! What they’re doing with a third string, seventh round quarterback, is truly amazing, and it’s everything I’ve ever wanted out of my own football team. I want what they have! I want the Seahawks to scheme their way to offensive success, and just overpower their opponents on defense. It’s fucking awesome!

Bottom line: I don’t believe in Drew Lock, but I don’t believe in Geno Smith either. So, let Geno Smith walk, use the #5 draft pick on a stud defensive lineman, use one of our other first/second round picks on a quarterback we believe can develop in this system relatively quickly, and use the cost savings to really go hard in free agency and in trades for elite players. It’s not conventional, but what has convention gotten us?

The Seahawks have been conventional since 2015, and it’s resulted in an endless run of disappointing finishes. We haven’t even been good enough to get back to the conference title game, let alone the Super Bowl. Maybe it’s time to be unconventional again. Zag where the rest of the NFL zigs, like we were doing when Pete Carroll and John Schneider first got here.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Tua Be Or Not Tua Be, That Is The Question

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For the first time all year, I actually got moderately-competent quarterback play from BOTH of my quarterbacks! A combined almost-58 points? If I’d been getting that every week, I daresay I’d have a much better win/loss record than I do now! Of course, I refuse to go back and double-check that math, because what could possibly be more of a waste of time? I mean, I’m already playing fantasy football; you can’t get much more time-wastey than that!

With that Thursday Night Miracle in hand, I’ll admit I was feeling pretty confident about winning this week. My projected points increased tremendously and if the rest of my team played according to how they’ve played all season, it should’ve been in the bag. But, you know me, I’m doomed to suffer. Things never seem to go my way. Close but no cigar and whatnot!

If I wanted to, I could blame the Atlanta Falcons for my loss. I could even blame Todd Gurley specifically! If he’d done what he should have done, they would’ve run out the clock and won their football game. Instead, he had to score a meaningless touchdown and that allowed the Lions to drive down and take the lead with a touchdown of their own to win the game. Which – thanks to my opponent having both the Lions’ quarterback and the tight end he threw that touchdown to – gave him just enough points to win his matchup against me, 165.05 to 156.40. Take away just the 12 points he got for the touchdown (6 for his quarterback, 6 for his tight end), and that’s a win for Nobody Beats The Wiz.

I could blame my misfortune on my running back keepers being totally worthless. Josh Jacobs and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 12.2 points when they were projected for a combined 35.63. I could blame my misfortune on the fantasy gods tearing Odell Beckham’s ACL in the first quarter of that Browns game where they racked up 37 points (surely some of those catches and/or touchdowns would’ve gone to their #1 receiver). Even if I’d had the gumption to stick with my three-headed running back hydra (CEH scored an improbable 13.3 points which seemed more flukey than a sign of things to come in that offense), the allure of playing ODB against the Bengals would’ve forced me to sit Deebo Samuel, who had 12.2 points of his own that I would’ve desperately needed to win this game.

The point is, there wasn’t much I could’ve done. If I would’ve played strictly by the projected points, I would’ve lost. Instead, I went by my gut and I lost. There was one combination of players that would’ve worked, and the odds of me figuring that out ahead of time was pretty minimal. This is the way.

I will say it wasn’t all doom and gloom. A.J. Brown had a monster game against the Steelers, getting me 27.3 points. The Rams’ defense was a great pickup, scoring 27 against the Bears on Monday Night. My kicker had his best game of the season, getting me 13 points.

Interesting waiver wire news: late last week, Beasts picked up Antonio Brown, who is headed to Tampa to play for the Bucs. Beasts, at the time, had four high-functioning quarterbacks, three of which already had their BYE weeks. There’s very little reason for anyone who’s fighting for a playoff spot to carry four quarterbacks on their roster when there are no longer any BYE weeks to work around. So, he ended up dropping his worst quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Who, as chance would have it, would be the second-best quarterback on my team had he been here the whole time. So, I put in a claim for him, dropping the most expendable receiver I had, Darius Slayton (who I would like to get back on my roster, if I’m so fortunate, especially thanks to ODB’s injury).

I also put in a claim for Chase Edmonds, because Arizona’s starting running back just got injured, but thanks to the Cousins claim, my waiver priority dropped down to 10th, so I assumed that was always going to be an impossible longshot. But, somehow, I got him! I guess maybe because Kenyan Drake will only be out for a few weeks, and because Arizona is on BYE this week, no one wanted to waste their waiver status. But still, I should get a couple good games out of Edmonds!

Finally, since I dropped ODB to pick up Edmonds, and since Deebo Samuel is in my IR spot for a bit, I picked up Brandon Aiyuk, also of the 49ers. He’s their impressive-looking rookie wide receiver who seems to be filling that Deebo Samuel-shaped hole in their offense. Since they’re going up against the Seahawks this week, you better believe I’m taking advantage!

The defeat drops me to 3-4 and in 8th place in the league. My opponent for this week is The Lance Petemans, who is 4-3 and in 5th place. He has the third-most total points (to my second-fewest), but he’s closer to the middle-of-the-pack than he is to the top two scoring teams. So, you know, it’s not an impossible task, but it will still likely require his team to underperform for me to beat him. Here’s what I’m looking at going with:

  • Carson Wentz (QB) vs. DAL
  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB) vs. LAR
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ CIN
  • Brandon Aiyuk (WR) @ SEA
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) @ CLE
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) vs. NYJ
  • Noah Fant (TE) vs. LAC
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ PHI
  • Harrison Butker (K) vs. NYJ
  • Indianapolis (DEF) @ DET

Fuck it, I’m Ride Or Die with Tua. Daniel Jones is a complete non-starter for me going forward until he proves he’s not totally worthless behind that offensive line (he’s especially impossible to start this week going up against that elite Bucs defense). Cousins is enticing, but he’s at Green Bay, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him play a bad game there. I’d hate to miss out on the Tua bandwagon because I “played it safe” with someone infuriating like Cousins. Believe me, I harbor no delusions about what Cousins brings to the table; I had him on my other fantasy team until about a week ago. He’s had a couple good weeks – largely fuelled by Garbage Time points – but he throws WAY too many interceptions, on top of which he’s leading a conservative, run-heavy offense that’s getting Dalvin Cook back this week (I hope, for my other fantasy team’s sake). Tua could stink! We just saw the Rams’ defense have a field day against the Bears. But, I’m hoping that by playing at home, having two weeks to prepare, and being a complete unknown will be enough to shock the world and lead Tua to have a huge game.

Not for nothing, but Daniel Jones’ first start last year saw him score 4 touchdowns (and over 40 fantasy points in our league), so there is precedent for someone coming from out of nowhere to blow away the competition.

I’m more or less stuck playing my full three-headed running back hydra because I have so many wide receiver injuries this week. ODB is out for the year, and Deebo Samuel strained a hamstring in his game last week; he’s already ruled out this week, and maybe next week as well. That’s a tough loss for me, because I have zero confidence in the Dallas offense whatsoever with Andy Dalton at the helm; the fact that I have to start Ezekiel Elliott is bad enough, but there was no way I could also start CeeDee Lamb. My hope is that CEH – against a putrid Jets defense – gets a lot of love in that one, and maybe Jacobs has a bounce-back game against a less-stout Browns defense.

I’m only starting Indy’s defense because I feel there’s a conflict of interest in playing the Rams against my rookie quarterback. I’m hoping the fantasy football gods see the good mojo I’m trying to throw into the world and reward me accordingly.

No significant BYE week luck this week. The Lance Petemans has Gardner Minshew on BYE, but he probably would’ve been benched anyway. Ryan Tannehill is a must-start every week apparently, and Jimmy G is facing the also-putrid Seahawks defense. When you’ve got someone going up against the Seahawks, you have to play them; it’s a new rule they just brought down. Here’s his projected lineup:

  • Ryan Tannehill (QB) @ CIN
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) @ SEA
  • Tyreek Hill (WR) vs. NYJ
  • Calvin Ridley (WR) @ CAR
  • Todd Gurley (RB) @ CAR
  • Melvin Gordon (RB) vs. LAC
  • Rob Gronkowski (TE) @ NYG
  • Miles Sanders (RB) vs. DAL
  • Ryan Succop (K) @ NYG
  • Philadelphia (DEF) vs. DAL

I only have myself to blame for trading him Tyreek Hill last year in an ill-advised deal to get the aging Tom Brady (With No Weapons To Throw To), who is clearly different than this year’s Tom Brady (On The Bucs Who Scores Tons Of Points Every Week). So, look for Hill to score 4 TDs. Calvin Ridley has come on as a real stud, which I honestly didn’t see coming. Tannehill, I should point out again, has been a really dominant force (scoring over 30 points in three of his six games). All of his running backs are great, with juicy matchups. He’s probably weakest on defense, and even then there’s a lot to like, because I think even Andy Dalton is hurt and the Cowboys are going with a much less-touted rookie who will probably be overwhelmed.

I don’t see a clear path to victory this week, unless I get lucky with a lot of my opponent’s guys underperforming. We’ll see, though. I don’t totally hate my matchups this week, for whatever that’s worth (it’s probably worth my team scoring the fewest points it has all year).

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Crisis Averted!

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  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE
  • Pre-Season Week 2 HERE
  • Fantasy Draft HERE

Yahoo! had me projected to lose heading into the week, and continued to have me projected to lose after the Thursday night game when CEH had his outstanding nearly 20-point debut. It was, in fact, looking pretty grim on into the afternoon games, when Crazy N8’s Prostates already had a 35-point game out of one of his quarterbacks with Dak Prescott still yet to play. Even though I had three players going on Monday Night, as we headed into that Cowboys/Rams game on Sunday Night, I was ready to face my defeat like a man and get to work on turning things around in Week 2.

Among my disappointments, I have to start with Odell Beckham Jr. I didn’t want to draft him in the first round, for obvious reasons, but I also didn’t want to draft him AT ALL, except he managed to fall to me in the second round and I felt I had no choice. The upside is too great with this guy, but the downside is clear: 3 receptions for 22 yards, for a total of 5.2 points. There are certain teams you JUST don’t want to fuck with, because they’re poorly coached and their overall rosters are mediocre-to-terrible. The Jets are annually one of these teams. The Washington Football Team usually finds its way onto this list. You can usually make cases for the Jaguars and Bengals as well. But, at the very top of my Fantasy Football Shit List, we have the Cleveland Browns (never a more apt team for someone of ODB’s proclivities to play for). All of their guys were off of my draft board. Even Nick Chubb – who is one of the most talented running backs in football – couldn’t be trusted because, as we saw on Sunday, he’s in a pretty strict time-share with Kareem Hunt (another high-level running back they sought to add for no apparent reason other than to distress fantasy football owners).

Anyway, the Browns gave ODB a shit-ton of money (no pun intended no, pun intended) after he came over from the Giants. And, let’s just say I don’t believe he has the heart of a champion. I think he got his millions of dollars and his GAF-level is at an all-time low. It doesn’t help that the franchise is poorly run, his quarterback is overrated, and their offensive scheme is total balls. But, the real tragedy is now I’m stuck with a guy who’s too good to bench, but too bad to help me win games. Everything about this is a disaster because his trade value is so low, all I could reasonably get in return is somebody’s backup defense or something. He gets one more week out of me before I bench him in favor of Darius Slayton of the Giants, who absolutely TORCHED the Steelers on Monday Night (getting me 28 useless points for my bench).

Also high on my disappointment list is Carson Wentz. Once again, his best weapons are all injured, and this week even his security blankets were out. Miles Sanders has a hamstring issue, and his Pro Bowl left tackle was also out. Against a Washington Football Team defensive line that’s apparently among the best in football (and gave Wentz fits all day). In this case, there’s really nothing I can do, because I have no better QB options on my roster, so I just have to hope for improved health luck (and thank my stars he doesn’t have to face Washington again in this fantasy football season).

Finally, I’m putting the Indianapolis defense in this list, because they only managed 8 points against what was supposed to be an inept Jacksonville Jaguars offense, allowing Minshew Mania to complete almost all of his passes. 4 sacks, that’s it. I can’t tell if this was just a bad week, or if the Colts just aren’t as good as I’d hoped, but needless to say I’ll be looking for defensive reinforcements this week.

My matchup against Crazy N8’s Prostates started to turn in my favor during that very Sunday Night Cowboys/Rams game, actually! Dak Prescott only threw for one touchdown, and it was to my running back, Ezekiel Elliott! With Elliott also scoring a rushing touchdown, he actually managed to out-score Dak by five points!

From there, heading into the two Monday Night games, Yahoo! had me projected to win by a considerable margin. But, of course, Crazy N8 still held a decent lead, so my guys would have to put up SOME points.

Daniel Jones (when he’s bad) started off the game in true Danny Dimes (when he’s good) fashion! He had an early bomb to Slayton and the Giants actually held an improbable lead over the Steelers for a spell. Then, with two mind-boggling interceptions, Dimes reverted to Jones and I was pretty distraught. Thankfully, once the Steelers had the game well in hand, Dimes returned with some garbage-time points (in the form of a second TD pass to Slayton). All in all, it was a 20-point effort that’s far from ideal, but is good enough as a baseline level of fantasy production as my second quarterback. Better days are ahead, I’m sure of it.

In the night cap, I had one of my late-round draft sleepers going in Noah Fant. He was terrific! His 19 fantasy points is not only great for a tight end, it actually out-paced Travis Kelce on Crazy N8’s team (who was one of his four keepers)! With Fant’s production alone, it didn’t matter that A.J. Brown only put up 8.9 points for me; I got to go to sleep early, knowing my victory was in the bag; 170.45 to 150.80.

My win and points total puts me in third place among the 1-0 teams heading into this week, where I go up against Colinoscopy Time (our reigning league champion) who scored the second-fewest points in the league in Week 1. At the time of this writing, Yahoo! has me projected as a slight underdog, but we’ll see where we’re at when my roster is set for the week. In the meantime, here’s where I’m leaning:

  • Wentz (QB) vs. LAR
  • Jones (QB) @ CHI
  • Beckham (WR) vs. CIN
  • Brown (WR) vs. JAX
  • Edwards-Helaire (RB) @ LAC
  • Elliott (RB) vs. ATL
  • Fant (TE) @ PIT
  • Jacobs (RB) vs. NO
  • Butker (K) @ LAC
  • Washington (DEF) @ ARI

So this officially brings us to Waiver Wire Corner! I put in one claim this week: the Washington defense, which as you can see I ended up getting. I dropped Mecole Hardman, who wasn’t long for my team, because it’s apparent the Chiefs are using him more as a #4 receiver than the #2 I’d hoped for. Then, when I woke up this morning, I saw a couple other guys sitting out in Free Agency that I could nab. First and foremost, I got quarterback Mitch Trubisky, dropping Sam Darnold. The Jets are a true disaster right now, plus their schedule looks TOUGH. The Bears, on the other hand, have a pretty light schedule – at least to start the season – so I’m hoping Trubisky can build up some confidence. He was a good fantasy quarterback a couple years ago (and I don’t think you could EVER say that about Darnold), so I feel better rolling the dice with the somewhat-proven commodity. Finally, running back Malcolm Brown of the Rams went totally unclaimed! Given how great he looked – getting the lion’s share of the carries, scoring two touchdowns against the Cowboys – I was SURE someone would’ve put in a claim for him. I mean, I’m stacked with running backs, but I can’t just leave him out there! Plus, this way I have both Brown and his backup, rookie Cam Akers (who didn’t have an inspiring debut, even though he technically got the “start”; he’s more of a guy you stash on your bench for better days later in the season). To make room for Brown, I made the tough decision to cut DeVante Parker, who reaggravated his hamstring injury during the game last week, which is VERY discouraging, because he was so good last year. I would LOVE for my wide receiver spots to be as settled as my running backs are, because I need all the help I can get if my quarterbacks are going to be so up-and-down. I might have to trade from my position of strength to get a wide receiver that I’m happy with.

Although, with Deebo Samuel officially hitting the IR – and therefore not available to me for the first three weeks of the season (at least) – maybe he’s someone I can look forward to providing me a little help. That’d be nice.

I don’t have any use for my bench this week, though it’s tough to want to sit Slayton against the Bears, whose defense I don’t think is very good. As I said before, if ODB can’t rack up points against a bad Bengals team on Thursday Night, then next week I’ll be more than happy to make that change.

Colinoscopy Time has the following lineup:

  • Deshaun Watson (QB) vs. BAL
  • Ben Roethlisberger (QB) vs. DEN
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) vs. NE
  • Stefon Diggs (WR) @ MIA
  • Derrick Henry (RB) vs. JAX
  • Tarik Cohen (RB) vs. NYG
  • George Kittle (TE) @ NYJ
  • Michael Gallup (WR) vs. ATL
  • Nick Folk (K) @ SEA
  • Tennessee (DEF) vs. JAX

His quarterbacks have some very difficult matchups, which makes me happy, because those guys can be monsters. Metcalf might very well struggle against the Patriots’ secondary, but he’s a wild card, so you never know. Diggs should do well against Miami, as should Henry against the Jags. I don’t like Cohen much at all, but you never know when they’ll check down to him 15 times a game. Kittle is a bear, but he’s also a little banged up and may or may not play a whole lot this week. Gallup sounds like he’s a boom-or-bust kind of guy, who’s playing behind their new rookie receiver. Colinoscopy Time should clean up with the Titans against the Jags (but, then again, I thought the exact same thing with the Colts last week, and look at where that got me).

I actually like my chances in this one, which is usually a bad sign. We’ll see, though! Maybe my mojo in 2020 is starting to turn in my favor!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Corona-Draft Prep

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  • Pre-Season Week 1 HERE

Well, the keepers are set in place, and now I get to look forward to our draft this Friday. There were some minor surprises – and a couple big ones – so without further ado, let’s take a quick glance at how wrong I was about my projected keepers for the rest of the league:

  1. Russell Wilson, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Godwin, Matt Ryan (all correct)
  2. Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, James Conner, Travis Kelce (Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Ingram, and Keenan Allen all available to draft)
  3. Deshaun Watson, George Kittle, Derrick Henry, Cam Newton (Aaron Jones)
  4. Jared Goff, Drew Lock, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster (A.J. Brown and Raheem Mostert)
  5. Kyler Murray, Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon (Mike Evans)
  6. Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen (Amari Cooper)
  7. Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett (all correct)
  8. Jimmy Garoppolo, Tyreek Hill, Gardner Minshew, Todd Gurley (Matthew Stafford)
  9. Lamar Jackson, Julio Jones, Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold)

I remember being MUCH more successful in predicting my league’s keepers before last season, so I don’t know what that says about me or the state of the NFL right now, but it makes the upcoming draft more interesting!

Until I saw the actual keepers, I wasn’t too thrilled about my prospects as the guy with the #2 overall draft pick. It just seemed like there wouldn’t be anyone really dominating for me to select. BUT, I see two guys among the leftovers who are VERY exciting! Not just for 2020, but for many years to come potentially!

Of this group, Mike Evans and Aaron Jones are both VERY enticing to me. Either one of them could fall to me and I’d be ecstatic with whoever I get. I know I bemoaned Tom Brady’s noodle arm last week, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be interested in the weapons he has to throw to. For starters, Brady isn’t totally inept; he hasn’t fallen completely off the cliff just yet. While Mike Evans has been mostly a deep threat thus far in his career, he still has a ton of value as a red zone target, and should thrive with someone like Brady throwing jump balls his way. If, by the grace of all that is holy, both Evans and Jones were to fall to me, I’d have to go with Evans simply because the drop-off at receiver is so steep among him and the rest of the leftovers.

Odell Beckham Jr. is, of course, one of those leftovers. I can’t say that I agree with exposing him to the rest of the league while keeping someone like Josh Allen, but you know, there’s a reason why I haven’t won a league championship in the fantasy trophy era (2010-Present). I think the Cleveland Browns – and by extension, their players – are pretty underrated in 2020, after being so very OVER-rated heading into 2019, so there could be some good value in guys like ODB and Baker Mayfield. If I picked lower in the first round, I’d be over the moon if someone like ODB fell to me; someone is going to get an absolute steal.

Aaron Jones was one of the best running backs in all of football last year, at least from a fantasy perspective. So, it’s shocking to see him available. But, it’s telling that he is, because the owner who exposed him is also a lifelong Packers fan. If HE’S not keeping Aaron Jones, there must be a reason (he’s also the reigning league champion, but that’s in spite of him auto-drafting last year, as well as never checking his e-mail, so we’re all in agreement that this was a fluke, and if his wife weren’t cc’d on all league e-mails, we’d probably never hear from him again). I have to believe Aaron Jones still has a lot of value, though, so if Mike Evans goes to the guy drafting #1 overall, I’m okay with nabbing Jones, even though I’ve already kept two running backs. There’s still the FLEX spot, and there are only so many bona fide, workhorse running backs in the league, so you really can’t have too many.

That would, of course, necessitate my drafting wide receivers in both the second and third rounds (which might see me needing to reach for some lesser players, but that’s the price you pay, I guess).

As I stated before, I still haven’t done a ton of research heading into the draft, as my objective at this point is still to mostly go by what Yahoo tells me. But, to pique my curiosity, I checked the season projections and found some surprising guys among the leftovers.

Miles Sanders, running back for the Eagles, is rated VERY high. Even higher than Aaron Jones! I can’t remember the last time an Eagles running back was worth more than an in-season free agent pickup (probably Shady McCoy), because they so often are in a time-share with multiple backs. But, he’s been definitively named the starter by the head coach, which is saying a lot but also not saying anything at all. Why would the head coach be motivated to give away such news for free to the rest of the league? Also, there’s no saying he has to stick with that, if Sanders under-produces or gets hurt. Sanders was really good towards the end of last year though, so I think that’s where the hope lies.

Not ODB nor Mike Evans is the highest-ranked wide receiver remaining; that falls to Allen Robinson of the Bears. I don’t totally get that, but ESPN also has him ranked pretty high, so I guess I have to believe it. With Chicago’s quarterback situation being what it is, I don’t have ANY faith in any of their players, but if he somehow falls to the second round, I might have to take him anyway.

Kenny Golladay is also rated above ODB and Evans, and he seems like a safer pick. He has elite talent, and Matthew Stafford is healthy again. It’s looking highly likely that MANY wide receivers are going to fly off the board in the first three rounds of our draft, so I’ll be interested to see who I’m able to grab.

Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, and Darren Waller are the three tight ends I’m looking at right now. Andrews is probably the only guy worth reaching for (maybe in the second or third round, if he’s still there), but if the draft doesn’t fall the way I want it to, I have no problem waiting until the end of the draft to pick up a tight end. There will be someone on waivers worth claiming in the first week or two of the regular season.

I need to resist the urge to get a third quarterback too early, but there are LOTS of veteran options out there (who I would anticipate get snapped up before I have a chance), including Drew Brees, Brady, Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, and Tyrod Taylor. There’s also Baker Mayfield, who still has a lot of potential to be great, as well as Darnold and Dwayne Haskins (who stunk last year, but is still young enough to turn it around). And then, of course, there are the rookies. The more I think about it, the less inclined I am to want to reach too early for any of them. I also wonder if Joe Burrow won’t be the first overall player taken in the draft, considering the guy picking there and how badly he’s been looking to shore up his QB spots. Having Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow for the next generation might be too tantalizing to pass up.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2020: Here We Fucking Go Again

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If you want to read about my 2019 fantasy football season, click HERE and you can see all the prior links at the top. And, if you want to read about my 2018 season (which has a lot of good info at the beginning about how our league works), click HERE.

Note: please don’t go back and read all of that. There’s a reason why this series is called, “Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team”. You’ve been warned; this isn’t necessarily a generic fantasy football column like you may be used to, this is specifically about MY team, and if the players I write about happen to be relevant to your situation, then all the better, I guess.

Just a quick reminder: this is a 10-team, 2-quarterback PPR league where quarterback points are slightly inflated compared to standard leagues (20 yards per point, 6 points per TD, -4 points per INT). So, you know, it’s pretty important to have a couple quality quarterbacks.

We had our annual fantasy football meeting last week, without much tweaking of the rules. For our purposes, the league season only counts – as it relates to the championship and related prizes therein – if the NFL completes nine regular season weeks. I don’t think that will be much of an issue, but apparently we have to account for these things in these COVID times. We also are allowed one extra IR spot (on top of the IR spot we already get) specifically if someone is diagnosed with COVID and placed on leave accordingly. Seems unlikely that anyone super good will catch it, so I’m not too concerned.

It’s another year with four keepers, so here are mine:

  • Carson Wentz (QB)
  • Daniel Jones (QB)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  • Josh Jacobs (RB)

The only holdovers from my 2018 squad are Wentz and Elliott. I made an ill-advised trade for Tom Brady midway through last year – costing me Tyreek Hill in the process – and for that I have much regret. Nevertheless, Danny Dimes looks like he has true stud potential, and as someone I held onto all year in spite of not playing him very regularly, I’m pretty devoted to seeing how he plays out in his second season in the league. Josh Jacobs, from the moment I drafted him, was someone I eyeballed as a potential keeper for years to come (and someone I see has a HUGE upgrade over LeVeon Bell, who was mired on a terrible Jets team with a God-awful offensive line).

The only other serious contenders as keepers were the aforementioned Tom Brady and Le’Veon Bell. Brady is REALLY intriguing, as we all know he’s now in Tampa, with a ton of weapons, and with an offensive-minded head coach in Bruce Arians. Like many around football, I’m not totally sold on Carson Wentz. The bloom is off the rose with him, even though he played in all 16 games, had a career high in passing yards (4,039) in spite of having no great wide receiver options to throw to, and still had a very commendable 27:7 TD:INT ratio. I don’t know if the weapons situation is all that much improved, but they went after wide receiver HARD in the draft, and hopefully will see some younger guys from prior seasons step up. So, there was a serious look at Brady over Wentz, but in the end Brady is just so old, and that noodle arm looked SO feeble last year. The offense under Arians tends to feature a lot of deep downfield plays in the passing game. I could see Brady starting off the season on fire, but when I would need him the most – in the fantasy playoffs – I just don’t think he’ll have it. Besides that, Wentz is obviously still very young and should still be viable for many more years; Brady is on his very final legs and could be forced into retirement at any time.

As for Bell, I couldn’t tell you what the Jets have done to bolster their O-Line (other than pay a lot of money to George Fant to be their left tackle, a position he’d rarely been asked to play as a member of the Seahawks). I don’t know if I totally buy Bell as still having it. He was a steady fantasy player last year, but he’s getting up there as well, and if that offense continues to struggle, I don’t know if I see him having a lot of TD opportunities. I’m of the opinion that Jacobs will be a superstar, and Elliott already IS a superstar. Kind of a no-brainer there.

In coming in second place in the Consolation Bracket last season, I earned the second overall draft pick in the upcoming draft on Friday, September 4th. This presents me with a unique opportunity. The deadline for everyone to declare their keepers is this Friday, August 28th, so before next week’s column, I should know who’s available to me.

Since there isn’t a ton to write about this early in the pre-season, I’ll try to take a stab at guessing who the keepers will be for the other nine teams (with guys in parentheses being alternate options):

  1. Russell Wilson, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Godwin, Matt Ryan (Tyler Boyd)
  2. Dak Prescott, Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Ingram, Travis Kelce (Keenan Allen)
  3. Deshaun Watson, George Kittle, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones (Cam Newton)
  4. DeAndre Hopkins, Jared Goff, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster (Raheem Mostert)
  5. Kyler Murray, Michael Thomas, Saquon Barkley, Mike Evans (Joe Mixon)
  6. Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Amari Cooper (Adam Thielen)
  7. Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett (Zach Ertz)
  8. Tyreek Hill, Jimmy Garoppolo, Todd Gurley, Matthew Stafford (Gardner Minshew)
  9. Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake, Baker Mayfield, Julio Jones (Austin Ekeler, Sam Darnold)

Honestly, I’m not in love with any of these potential leftovers. I’m tempted to more or less auto-draft. I’m happy with my keepers, but I was REALLY hoping there’d be someone super exciting for me to select with my #2 overall pick. Thankfully, we have a straight draft, so I’m #2 in every round. By auto-drafting, I figure I can’t do much worse than I’ve been doing over these last dozen or so years.

I haven’t done much of any research so far this off-season, and I don’t know what I’ll end up getting to prior to the draft. My hunch is: not much. Again, being prepared hasn’t done a damn thing for me; my name sure as shit isn’t on that league trophy, I’ll tell you that much!

One idea I’ve been mulling over is using my #2 overall pick on one of the incoming rookies. I have three players in mind, two of them being the most prominent rookie quarterbacks: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. Gun to my head: I like Tua more than Burrow. But, he’s projected to start this season as Miami’s backup, and their BYE week isn’t until Week 11. So, either Ryan Fitzpatrick sucks and Tua’s thrown to the wolves prematurely, and without a proper BYE week to prepare, or FitzMagic continues to do his thing and we don’t see Tua until very late in the season. The point being: there’s a great chance Tua doesn’t help me much at all this year, and I’d be throwing away yet another season trying to get my shit together when it comes to the quarterback position (with a very small, but important chance that Tua is the next Mahomes and I’d be missing out on my one and only opportunity at getting in on his ground floor).

It just figures that I have this great draft pick for the first time in YEARS, and there are no real stud running backs that would change the course of my fantasy franchise for years to come. Where’s MY Saquon Barkley?!

We’ll see, though. Once the keepers are locked in place, I’ll hop back into the league site and see who Yahoo thinks I should take. It does seem kind of idiotic to have a third quarterback on my roster before even getting ONE wide receiver. At some point, I need to stop playing for the future and start playing for today.

How many times have I admonished myself the last few years by saying that very same thing?

I’m Excited & Nervous About The Huskies Adding Transfer Quarterback Kevin Thomson

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Writing about Husky Football twice in the same week, and it’s not even football season yet? I feel like a real college football … head.

As I wrote about before, the Huskies are coming off of two consecutive highly-rated recruiting classes (2019 & 2020) and as such are considered to be among the favorites to win the Pac-12 this season. Of course, 1-A among biggest question marks would be: who’s going to start at quarterback? The guy who’s never started a college football game, the other guy who’s never started a college football game, or the incoming True Freshman who’s – say it with me now – never started a college football game?

No one really believed the Huskies were going to stand pat with Jacob Sirmon, Dylan Morris, and Ethan Garbers, though the dream scenario was trying to entice that USC transfer to come here (J.T. Daniels ended up going to Georgia, because SEC). Enter Kevin Thomson.

Thomson was the Big Sky Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2019, when he threw for 3,216 yards and 27 TDs (against only 8 INTs), with an additional 619 yards rushing and 12 more TDs on the ground for Sacramento State. It’s truly an impressive resume … for a small school in the Big Sky; so take that with about a thousand grains of salt.

Graduate transfers are a unique proposition. They’ve got the experience you like to see (especially if you’re a program that has none at the position), but you always have to wonder why they’re transferring in the first place. Russell Wilson was famously a grad transfer, but I feel like he’s the exception. He – along with Gardner Minshew for the Cougs – are probably the ideal of what you’d like to see when you acquire one of these players, but look at what we’re talking about here: a future NFL Hall of Famer, and another NFLer who played for a Mike Leach system that was built for players like Minshew to succeed at an elite level.

I’m sure over the vast landscape of grad transfer quarterbacks, you’ve got all kinds, from those elite success stories, all the way down to complete washouts who never played a down for their new school. I feel like the majority of these guys are like Thomson, who played the bulk of their college careers for a smaller school, and are looking to get a taste of the big time to see what they’re made of.

The Huskies are saying the right things, of course. He isn’t guaranteed the starting job by any means, as it will be a four-man competition as we head into the season. But, you can see why people might be excited about Thomson. The experience disparity between him and the others alone gives him a significant advantage as it is, but considering COVID-19 eliminated all spring practices – and has severely hampered what we’re able to do for any sort of training camp this summer – you have to figure Thomson is all but a lock.

The cool part of this is – if he works out – then we’ve got a legitimately better chance to win a lot of games this fall. The knock against Thomson is his accuracy – which has yet to get over 60% in any of his seasons – but I wonder about the talent level around him. With Pac-12 players on the roster to throw to (and to block for him), we could see that number improve. I also LOVE a dual-threat quarterback – especially in college – where protection often breaks down regardless of how talented the offensive lines are (lack of rushing ability seriously hampered Browning and Eason – and as a result, the entire Husky offense – in recent years, in spite of really good O-Lines in front of them).

The other cool part of this is – even if he doesn’t work out – then that means whoever does end up winning the starting job will be that much better and hopefully result in the Huskies winning even more games. I’ll never throw advanced competition out of bed for eating crackers!

The downside is, these moves often lead to one or more quarterbacks transferring from the program, and the three above guys I mentioned who were already on the roster are all highly-rated prospects (with a 5-star QB joining the Huskies in 2021 who looks to be a strong candidate to be a multi-year starter from Day One). You’d hate to see someone leave the program – who might go on to a quality college career – for a one-year rental in a grad transfer. But, the fun thing is: it’s all in their hands. If you want to be the starter, go out and win the job. It’s that simple.

I would’ve put the Huskies’ chances at winning the Pac-12 at MAYBE 10% before this week, given their schedule and the level of competition around the conference. I think this move legitimately improves our chances. And, if we hear good things about Thomson as the competition gets going, you’ll be looking at one rabid Dawg fan when the calendar flips to September!

I mean, let’s be real, you’re going to hear from a rabid Dawg fan regardless because I’m a consummate homer and will have talked myself into ongoing Husky domination between now and then, regardless of whatever news I read. Is it sane? Probably not. Will I be getting my hopes up for later disappointment? Well, I’m a sports fan, so what else is new?

Seattle Sports Hell’s Gambling Corner: Vegas This Weekend

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In chronicling my progress at fake sports gambling, I feel like I’m at the very least starting to think a little smarter about the games I pick and my rationale behind all of it. Last week, I actually did better than expected! There’s a lot of quality wins in this group, so let’s dig into it before I start looking at what REAL bets I want to make this weekend.

My primary strategy was a cluster of 2-team teases featuring Baltimore as my rock. All I needed was for the Ravens to beat the Bills, and they came through (though it was a little scary at the end).

I paired the Ravens with seven other teams, going 5-2 in the process. I needed the Packers to win by a touchdown and they allowed the Redskins to backdoor cover it at the end. My other defeat saw the Jags get absolutely ROUTED at home by a struggling Chargers team. There were some nice wins though: Cincy kept it close, the Falcons blew out the Panthers, the Jets won on a last-second field goal, Indy kept it close, and the Vikings did their jobs.

I also hit on the Tampa OVER, but my parlay with the Indy victory fell through. That also blew up my underdog parlay of Indy and Kansas City, though the Chiefs did their job in my solo fake wager on them.

I did pretty well on overs, all things considered. Cincy & Cleveland went over, as did Carolina & Atlanta. But, the Steelers/Cards game was just short, as was the Rams/Seahawks (my lock of the group).

And, finally, it’s back-to-back weeks where I’ve devised a well-crafted 3-team tease only to have one of the three teams stab me in the back! It was, as expected, the Raiders completely falling apart. In fairness, the game was within range through three quarters. But, the Titans tacked on a couple more TDs to put it out of reach in the final frame.

I did nail the 49ers beating the Saints. But, I lost the UNDER 50 points before we even got to halfitme, so my separate tease was a bust.

All in all, a pretty solid week. This makes me DOUBLY nervous as we head to Vegas tomorrow, as I wait for the other shoe to drop.

***

I’ve waited until the last possible minute in the week to figure out what I’m doing on my Vegas trip. Now, obviously, there will be some ad libs, probably some live betting, but I’ve at least got my plan outlined and ready to go.

For starters, I wanted to do a big parlay (with point spreads) just as a stab in the dark. So, I’m going to put $50 to win $9,000 on the following 8-team parlay:

  • Tennessee -3 vs. HOU
  • Green Bay -4.5 vs. CHI
  • Philly -4.5 @ WAS
  • Detroit +3.5 vs. TB
  • Miami +3.5 @ NYG
  • Oakland -6.5 vs. JAX
  • San Francisco -10.5 vs. ATL
  • Cleveland -2.5 @ AZ

I’ve already swapped about four teams in and out of that lineup, and may continue to tinker with it up until tomorrow when I arrive in Vegas. But, for now, that’s what I’m looking at.

I’m also looking at an 8-team moneyline parlay, where the teams just need to win. I’m thinking somewhere around $150 (I don’t know what it’ll pay out, but probably around that amount). You’ll see some overlap in the first parlay, but obviously more heavy favorites are included here:

  • Philly @ WAS
  • Green Bay vs. CHI
  • LA Rams @ DAL
  • Seattle @ CAR
  • Kansas City vs. DEN
  • Oakland vs. JAX
  • San Francisco vs. ATL
  • Cleveland @ AZ

Now, in conjunction with my attempt last week at picking one sure thing to pair with multiple different teasers, I’ve got my sights set on Green Bay. I loved the Packers back on Monday when I first saw the line was -5, and I love them even more now that a certain amount of the public has money on the Bears to cover, forcing the line down to -4.5. Moving that 6 points gives me the Packers +1.5; I’ll take that all day and twice on Sunday. So, here are my teaser partners, all with Packers +1.5 (each of these will be $100):

  • Philly to +1.5 @ WAS
  • Tennessee to +3 vs. HOU
  • Seattle to -0.5 @ CAR
  • Miami to +9.5 @ NYG
  • Oakland to -0.5 vs. JAX
  • Arizona to +8.5 vs. CLE
  • LA Rams to +4.5 @ DAL
  • Buffalo to +8 @ PIT

As for my beloved over/unders, there’s only one that I REALLY like: Oakland vs. Jacksonville over 45.5. Those are a couple of mediocre defenses that should give up considerable points (the risk is the Jags on the road, across 3 time zones, just doing absolutely nothing with the fraud that is Gardner Minshew). We’ll keep that to a simple $110. Also, if I’m feeling frisky, I might put the same amount on Detroit vs. Tampa over 46 (though, I’m hoping that line goes down).

I want to do one really BIG teaser bet, and in an effort to not put all my eggs COMPLETELY in the Packers’ basket, I’m thinking of making Buffalo +8 my lock in this one. The three teams I’m considering are … the Packers +1.5 (but, again, I’m trying to avoid this), the Raiders -0.5 (which just FEELS like a can’t-lose situation that might be too good to be true) or one that just intrigued me as I wrote it out above: Miami +9.5. I mean, all they have to do is NOT lose to the Giants by 10 or more? That Giants defense is terrible, and Eli is still Eli the last time I checked! How do I lose that one?

Also, should I switch it, and go Dolphins +9.5 at NYG and Oakland -0.5 vs. JAX?

I’m putting about $1,100 on this one, so I better figure it out, because this could be my weekend.

Also, if I’m desperate, I have a Sunday Night Game Teaser that I’ve been working on. Take Buffalo, move them to +8, then take the over/under of 36 and move it to 42 and pound the UNDER, and just hope for a game filled with punts and field goals. My initial instinct was to move the line to 30 and take the OVER, but my initial instinct is usually wrong in these same-game teasers. This is really only if I’m chasing a day full of losers, trying to win some money back (in other words, PRAY it doesn’t come to this).

In my Irrational Homer Pick, the Rams game is an interesting one. Dallas, at home, was originally favored by 2 points. That line has since moved to the Rams being favored by 1.5 points. I still like the Rams (and apparently literally everyone else does too), and I like them even more in a tease that moves the line to +4.5. I’m hoping some money comes in on Dallas in the next couple days, because I could actually see myself pairing the Rams with the Bills, Dolphins, or Giants in that giant teaser bet I’m cooking up.

As for Steven’s Stay Aways, I want no part of Patriots -10 @ Cincy. Tom Brady is washed up, but the Pats’ defense is still elite, and Cincy is a total wild card, even at home. I could see Cincy keeping it close, I could even see them winning! Or, I could see the Pats pounding it down their throats, giving up nothing on defense, and winning an ugly game 27-3. I also want no part of KC -9.5 vs. Denver. I like Denver, they keep most of their games close and fight hard. But, this game’s in Kansas City, and I feel like most of the public is onto Denver as well. It wouldn’t shock me in the least to see KC win by 10 points, so no thank you. I’m also not super fond of Minnesota -2.5 at LA Chargers. Gun to my head, I think the Vikings win and probably easily. But, the last time I said that with a game in LA against the Chargers, it was when Green Bay went there and got their doors blown off. Kirk Cousins is still Kirk Cousins, and that Chargers defense is getting healthy at the right time (maybe not in time to make the playoffs, but to still wreak some havoc in the last few weeks).

Okay, so that’s it. My dilemma that I’m leaving up in the air is as follows: I need two of these five teams in a 6-point teaser:

  • Buffalo +8
  • Oakland -0.5
  • Miami +9.5
  • LA Rams +4.5
  • Green Bay +1.5

Who will I go with? Tune in next week for my Vegas recap. And, if you’ve got any recommendations, let me know.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2019: Trade Deadline Follies

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Make that Space Pirates has underperformed 8 out of 10 weeks!

My team turned out much differently compared to what I wrote about in my Week 10 preview post. Inspiration struck after I hit “Publish”. I’ve had conversations off and on with the last place team in our league, as I have a serious need to improve my quarterback position and he has a serious need to get better keepers. He was rightly reluctant to part with San Francisco’s Jimmy G, so there was nothing doing there. But, his other guy was Tom Brady, who he’s had for years and years, and has won multiple league titles with. In spite of Brady’s disasterous fantasy performances in recent Decembers, I still see him as a step up from Nick Foles, or the inconsistent Danny Dimes (he gets his nickname back after another 40-point fantasy week).

It took me trading Tyreek Hill to get Brady, which in turn forced him to give up Robert Woods (which he was happy to do, as Woods has been pretty mediocre this season after a solid 2018) because I needed to play a second WR this week, which in turn forced me to give up on Nick Foles (which I was happy to do because he’s Nick Foles) because he needed to roster a third quarterback for emergency purposes.

That left my team weaker for Week 10 than it already was, if that’s even possible. But, I THOUGHT I turned my fortunes around for the better by making a last-minute trade on Friday night.

See, the guy who grabbed Brian Hoyer off of waivers last week found out on Friday that Mahomes was a go. That eliminated the need for him to roster Hoyer. He offered him to me in trade – as I was needy for improvement for Week 10, and had complained about my bad fortune to him earlier – and I told him I couldn’t offer much (it is Hoyer after all, and he was to be a one-week rental), but I could send over Ryan Finley as a possible lottery ticket. He accepted, and I had my Hoyer for the week.

Turns out, I would’ve been better off playing Finley. I nearly would’ve been better off playing Taysom Hill, with his 1 catch for 17 yards!

To further complicate matters, I realized that with the move to bring in Brady, and give up on a supreme talent like Hill, I’m in full-blown Win Now Mode. So, why am I hanging onto Gardner Minshew? Particularly when the Jags aren’t close to annointing him as the starter. So, I beefed up my depth by picking Derrius Guice back up, as he’s set to return pretty soon.

This past weekend was the official trade deadline for our league, so that’s it for the excitement. You’ll be happy (or possibly dismayed) to know that I was involved in every single trade in this league, and that there were officially just the two trades for the entire season. Of course, I highly doubt anyone else obsesses over these things like I do, as most everyone else in the universe has more of a life than me.

***

It was a rough Week 10 for Space Pirates. As I noted up top, my team yet-again underperformed expectations. Part of that had to do with my cold feet when it came to Le’Veon Bell. That Adam Thielen fiasco the week prior really got in my head, as I couldn’t stand the thought of me starting someone who might have to come out of his game without getting me anything. So, in his stead I put in Jaylen Samuels who got me a whopping 7 points, nearly 10 points less than Bell who finally found the endzone for my bench.

Cooper Kupp got me 0. The aforementioned Hoyer only got 4.20 (which was FAR from the nice number it appears to be). Justin Tucker was relegated to 7 extra points and 0 field goals. Darren Waller also only had 7 points. Zeke Elliott had 8.30. Danny Dimes was the only guy keeping me afloat – with his 41.40 points – but unfortunately he doesn’t get to face the Jets’ defense every week. I lost 149.35-121.50. When Robert Woods is your third-highest scorer of the week, you know you’re probably in for a bad time.

The loss drops me to 5-5 on the year, stopping my winning streak at three games. There are also just three more games left to go in the regular season. I’ve fallen to 7th place, just outside of the playoffs if the season ended today. I’m down to the 7th most points scored, but still with the second-most points against.

***

I dropped Hoyer on Tuesday to open up a place on my bench, as neither Hilton nor Green are eligible for the IR spot just yet. With those guys injured – and thus only two healthy wide receivers on my roster at the moment (Kupp & Woods of the Rams) – I had to make a move to at least shore up some depth. So, I put in two waiver claims, and got my top priority: Darius Slayton of the New York Giants. He’s a rookie fifth rounder who has come on of late, with 4 touchdowns and over 55 points in the last three weeks. Of course, sandwiched in there was a game where caught 1 ball for 6 yards, but rookies aren’t perfect. I feel like he’ll go where Danny Dimes goes, especially if the other targets in that offense continue to get banged up.

I also put in a request to pick Scary Terry back up, but it wasn’t meant to be as someone else nabbed him. I had to downgrade him by the simple fact that Dwayne Haskins was named the starter for the rest of the season, and he just seems like too much of a bust to depend on. McLaurin will have better days ahead, but he’s going to need a better quarterback throwing to him if he wants to be on my roster.

***

I’m stuck playing Sloane N Steady this week, the first place team in the league. Granted, he’s on a 3-game losing streak, but he’s still a shitload better than me and that losing streak will almost certainly end now. Space Pirates need to bring their A-game, and based on what I’ve seen from my guys, I don’t think they have it in ’em.

He has Aaron Rodgers on BYE, but other than that everyone’s a full go. Plus, he has Philip Rivers as a plug n’ play going up against the Chiefs on Monday Night, so it’s pretty much like he’s at full strength anyway. Derek Carr is his other QB, who has a juicy matchup against the Bengals this week.

Then, he’s got Amari Cooper, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, New England’s defense, and countless other guys who always kick my fucking ass. Assuming I lose this one, next week I have to go up against last year’s league champion, before finally facing the last place team the week before the playoffs start. It’s looking AWFULLY grim.