What If The Seahawks Take A Quarterback With The Fifth Pick?

This question feels like a waste of time. It feels like clickbait nonsense. When you read it from established journalists/pundits – as opposed to yours truly, who’s writing this in his pajamas in the middle of the afternoon while listening to some #FunkyDiscoHouse – it feels like they’re just parroting what unnamed agents/NFL front offices want them to “leak”, for financial/competitive gains.

When I read about the Seahawks showing interest in the quarterback position at the top of the draft, it seems very disingenuous. That’s what we WANT the rest of the league to believe, so the price to trade into our spot goes up. Or, so teams will leapfrog us, in hopes that one of the bigtime defensive line prospects falls to us. And/or to drive Geno Smith’s price down.

99.9% of me believes it’s bullshit that the Seahawks would select a quarterback with the fifth overall draft pick. I can’t say 100%, because nothing is 100% in the game of football. But, I’m saying it without saying it: the Seahawks are NOT drafting a quarterback fifth overall.

I say that as a fan of the Seahawks who has followed this organization VERY closely through the years.

Can you name the highest-drafted quarterback in the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era? You should, because his name is Russell Wilson, and he was famously taken by us in the third round. We’ve taken exactly one other quarterback in the draft since 2010: Alex McGough in 2018, in the 7th round. That’s a 50% success rate, for those keeping track at home.

The Seahawks have largely been unconventional at the spot over the last 12+ years. The inherited Matt Hasselbeck, they traded for Charlie Whitehurst (a huge bust), they took on Tarvaris Jackson because he was familiar with Darrell Bevell’s system, they made a medium-sized splash on Matt Flynn, and they’ve run through a number of starting busts to sit behind Wilson until we got to Geno and Drew Lock last year battling it out. LOTTA crap there, up to and including Hasselbeck’s last year here (when he was over the hill), outside of hitting the lottery on Russell Wilson.

But, at the same time, there haven’t been those huge swings you see out of most other franchises. Do you know who was the last quarterback we drafted in the first two rounds? The much-maligned Rick Mirer at number two overall, back in 1993. In fact, there’s only one other QB the Seahawks have taken in the first two rounds, and that was Dan McGwire at number 16 in 1991 (when Chuck Knox lobbied hard for Brett Favre). That’s a 0% success rate, for those keeping track at home.

Isn’t that interesting, though? When you think about the Seahawks, you don’t think about us being totally bereft of quarterback talent. But, we’ve been unorthodox at getting our guys. Jim Zorn was an undrafted free agent. Dave Krieg was as well. Warren Moon was a free agent, Matt Hasselbeck was a trade acquisition; those are all the big names, that comprise a significant chunk of the Pre-Wilson Seahawks history.

What’s also interesting – especially going from the Holmgren era through the John Schneider era (both with ties to the Green Bay Packers way of doing things) – is that this organization doesn’t even take a lot of draft fliers the way the Packers model themselves after. We get our franchise quarterback, and we throw whatever scrubs we find off the scrap heap behind him. Now, to be fair, what are we talking about? The Packers have made two high-profile draft picks of Aaron Rodgers (when Favre was still playing at a high level) and Jordan Love (when Rodgers was still playing at a high level); it’s not like they’re actually drafting a new quarterback every season.

But, that’s their reputation, and that’s also the reputation that was foisted upon John Schneider. I don’t know if he buys into that or not. Maybe that was an unfair allegation that was levied against him, since he came from Green Bay. But, regardless, it hasn’t been even remotely his practice since coming here. Not even when you consider this team really could’ve used a little more attention paid to the position!

There are those rumors that he was all in on Patrick Mahomes and/or Josh Allen. That if those guys would’ve fallen to us in their respective draft classes, we would’ve taken one of them even though that was smack in Wilson’s prime. Of course, we’ll never know; it’s easy to plant those stories to make yourself look smart. It’s also easy to plant those stories when you want to drive down the price of your own franchise quarterback in times of contract extension. But, it’s a great What If. What if we traded Wilson back in 2017 and acquired a ton of draft picks at that time? What if we used those picks to select (or trade up for) one of Mahomes or Allen? Wouldn’t that be exciting?!

That’s where you get to the 00.1% chance of the Seahawks taking a quarterback at five. Because to do that, they would have to be SO SURE this guy is the next superstar in this league. Which is what makes all the Anthony Richardson hullabaloo at the combine over the weekend all the more intriguing. He blew the collective minds of everyone watching, with his freakish athleticism, with his interviewing skills, and with his leadership traits. He also apparently had a very positive interview with Pete Carroll (who, as we all remember, had that crazy interaction with D.K. Metcalf before we later took him at the end of the second round).

Would I be excited if the Seahawks took a quarterback at five? You’re damn right I would be! Because I love a surprise out of left field. Because I don’t really want to overpay for Geno Smith’s services. And because I would have to 100% buy in on this guy, since the organization is taking such a huge risk. With our philosophy largely undermining the quarterback spot throughout the years, this would be a HUGE step in the other direction.

Naturally, it depends on who we take at five. I’ll say this, there’s no “sure thing” in this draft. Bryce Young is undersized and slight of frame. Also, I don’t know how much I buy Alabama quarterbacks, after the underwhelming showing of both Mac Jones and Tua (Hurts goes pretty far in turning that tide for me, but he also transferred out of there, and had to find a way to succeed without the crutch of being on the best roster college football has to offer). C.J. Stroud has great accuracy, but lacks a willingness to scramble, and if I don’t trust Bama quarterbacks, I REALLY don’t trust Buckeye QBs. He also had the luxury of being on an elite roster of players, and it’s impossible to tell how someone will react to the real world of the NFL, where there’s significantly more parity.

Richardson is naturally on everyone’s minds – and might excite me more than the other two guys, if only for his potential upside – but he has serious accuracy problems. He also didn’t play much at college and might be a little too reliant on his legs for success at the next level. I know it feels nitpicky – one guy runs too much, the other not enough, what is this a 3 Bears situation? – but that’s the nature of the beast with drafting a quarterback, especially in the upper half of the first round. For every Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, there are dozens of Blake Bortleses. You don’t often get those “sure things”. Most of the time, you get someone with flaws that you hope don’t usher him out of the league as a bust.

But, as I said, if the Seahawks take a quarterback at five, of course I’m going to be excited! What other choice do I have? That being said, if it’s not one of those three guys I just referenced, not only would it be a gargantuan shock, but it would be downright irresponsible. There’s just no one else worthy of that kind of attention.

When Seahawks fans speculate on the team taking a QB, it’s usually in the second or third round; MAYBE with the 20th overall pick (or trade down from 20 and take him later in the first). That feels a little more reasonable. It’s FAR less sexy, but it’s also probably the smarter play. Take a bigger project with less upside and hope to mold him over this season as he rides the pine behind Geno. But, can you imagine how much we’d lose our minds if we were one of those teams to take a quarterback in the top five?! What a thrill!

I Don’t See The Downside To Letting Geno Smith Hit Free Agency

Of course I don’t, because I don’t really want to see the Seahawks re-signing him. But, I’m resigned to the fact that he will be back, because that’s just how it works. NFL teams can’t help themselves. It’s a zero-risk league; you find what works and you beat it into the fucking ground.

For the purposes of this exercise, though, let’s pretend that I do want Geno Smith back. That I’m more than happy with a 9-8 team that barely squeaks into the playoffs. That mediocrity is my be-all, end-all in life. I was listening to Brock & Salk the other day, and I think they were torn on the matter. Someone said something about how he expects Geno to hit free agency, and Salk said if that happens, he’s as good as gone, because some team will blow the Seahawks away with an over-the-top offer.

I don’t agree with that. I mean, sure, there might be some other team willing to pay $32+ million per year to nab Geno. But, you’re making a big assumption when you opine that the Seahawks might get some sort of discount if we act fast and lock him up before free agency starts.

Frankly, I don’t see any reason why Geno Smith would want to avoid the open market. This is his first – and maybe ONLY – chance to make some real money in this league. His value has never been higher, and it will probably never BE higher than it is right this moment. He has every right to hold out for the absolute highest offer, whatever that may be. Unless …

Conversely, yeah, if you’re the Seahawks – and you want Geno to return – you have to be nervous about a bidding war starting up among the quarterback-needy teams in the league. There are PLENTY of organizations out there who would love to have his services. Geno would be a vast improvement for so many teams! And, as they always say, it only takes one to become enamored with him. Unless …

What if there isn’t the market everyone expects for Geno? Well then, it would be in Geno’s best interests to sign now and avoid the catastrophe that is the league lowballing him all offseason. Conversely, maybe the Seahawks would be wise to wait and see. Maybe instead of approaching that Franchise Tag figure, we’re free to sign him for considerably less.

Why don’t we take this opportunity to look around the league: who are the teams that need a quarterback, and who are the veteran quarterbacks available?

New York Jets – That’s a good team built to win right now, only missing a quarterback. I think they very much present a potential landing spot for a veteran. Would they want to bring Geno back after he failed so miserably with them the first time? I’m dubious.

Baltimore Ravens – It looks like they might move on from Lamar Jackson. But, they have 2022 Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley they could always turn to.

Houston Texans – They have the second overall pick and almost certainly will draft someone.

Indianapolis Colts – They have the fourth overall pick and almost certainly will draft someone.

Las Vegas Raiders – They’ve abandoned Derek Carr and could cut him with relatively little in the way of dead money; they could also try to trade him, though I don’t know what that market looks like. They have the seventh overall pick, but I could see them going either way (veteran vs. rookie).

Washington Commanders – They don’t strike me as a team that can be happy with the guys they’ve got. Like the Jets, they seem close to contention right now, just needing to shore up the quarterback spot. I’d bank on a veteran going their way.

New York Giants – They only need someone if they opt to let Danny Dimes walk. If that’s the case, I’d say they go with a veteran.

The Entire NFC South – The Falcons have the eighth overall pick and a third round quarterback from a year ago. I could see them going either way, but if I were them, I’d just draft another guy and have the two young guns duke it out. The Bucs are losing Tom Brady and don’t appear to have anyone in reserve; they seem to be a likely landing spot for a vet. The Saints would be idiotic to run it back with Andy Dalton, and Jameis Winston apparently isn’t any better otherwise he would’ve been in there when their season was at stake. I could also see them going for a vet. As for the Panthers, I think it’s full rebuild time; they have the ninth pick this year, go get a rookie.

Seattle Seahawks – duh.

Besides the Seahawks, there’s eleven teams. Two, for sure, will go with rookies. Maybe up to four. On the market, we figure to have the aforementioned Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, maybe Aaron Rodgers (if the Packers opt to trade him and go with Jordan Love), Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Cooper Rush, Gardner Minshew, and Matt Ryan. If I’m the Seahawks, I don’t know if I’m enamored with any of those guys. If I’m the rest of the league, though, maybe Geno Smith isn’t looking too bad?

I guess we’ll see. As someone who is against paying $32+ million for Geno Smith, I’m in favor of letting him test the waters. Let him get that somewhere else. Because there’s always the chance that the rest of the NFL sees his 2022 season as something of a fluke. Or, at the very least, a product of a very specific environment, that isn’t likely to be replicated just anywhere.

Ultimately, the question I have for myself is: is there a number I would like to have Geno come back to the Seahawks at? Maybe $20-$25 million. That doesn’t seem super realistic, but I could see myself being comfortable with that sort of deal, over two or three years.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2022: The Worst Possible Outcome

This season’s previous fantasy football posts:

Of course.

It’s not just that I came in last – ONCE AGAIN – in the Consolation Bracket, leaving me with only the 4th overall draft pick next year, but my trade partner – whose top two picks I get next year – also won the entire league, meaning those picks are 10th overall. The 4 and 10 picks. Fucking super. Maybe there’s some way I can trade for literally everyone’s first picks in 2024, that way I can guarantee myself a shot at a decent QB.

The only silver lining to this year is that I finally did win the championship in my Splinter League. It was a runaway. My team was great from the jump. I was projected to go 14-1 on draft day, I ended up going 11-4 through the regular season, and smoked both of my opponents in the playoffs (204.44 to 150.49 in round one, 178.30 to 147.90 in the championship). Shoutout to Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, my top two picks. Special shoutout to Jared Goff who probably saved my season. Honorable mention to CeeDee Lamb and Travis Kelce, stalwarts throughout. Even my bench rocked and rolled for me when I needed them! It’s nice to see Gabe Davis win at least one league, after such a disappointing season.

My other playoff team – in my third league – finished in fourth place, and was a colossal disappointment in the second half of the season.

All that’s left is choosing my dynasty roster for next year.

Quarterbacks

  • Justin Fields
  • Mike White
  • Mac Jones
  • Jordan Love
  • Matthew Stafford

Fields is a lock. Mac Jones is definitely out. Mike White is definitely out. Jordan Love is a wild card, but it all depends on what the Packers end up doing with him. If he remains Aaron Rodgers’ backup, then obviously he’s not going to be on my team next year. That leaves me with Matthew Stafford, who has already said he’s coming back in 2023. He’s definitely worth a shot, though obviously I’ll be drafting a quarterback with my top pick.

Running Backs

  • Ezekiel Elliott
  • Tony Pollard
  • Brian Robinson
  • Kenneth Walker
  • Alexander Mattison

I’m all in on Kenneth Walker, I think he’s just going to get better and better. My dream scenario involves the Cowboys cutting Zeke and handing the keys to Pollard, in which case I’m keeping Pollard. But, that would require a Pollard extension, which might not fit in the budget. On the plus side, maybe he lands with another run-heavy team that appreciates his talents. Mattison is another guy who will be a free agent, who could land with a run-heavy team (I mostly just picked him up so no one else could keep him). If all else fails, the Commanders seem to like Brian Robinson, and it might be interesting to see what he turns into with a full offseason of NOT getting shot in the leg in a robbery.

Wide Receivers

  • CeeDee Lamb
  • D.K. Metcalf
  • Christian Watson

Lamb is a guaranteed keeper. We’ll see with the other two. Watson has a high upside, but D.K. is already established. I could keep both, but that might be silly. Wide receivers are a dime a dozen; it’s probably more prudent to keep three running backs, what with injuries and everything.

Tight End / Kicker / Defense

  • T.J. Hockenson
  • Evan McPherson
  • New York Jets

I couldn’t be happier with where Hockenson landed. For whatever reason, the Lions just never figured him out, even though they pass a ton. The Vikings also pass a ton, but they seem to remember they also have a good tight end every once in a while. He actually finished #2 behind Kelce, which is kind of crazy, but also good on me for keeping him.

McPherson, on the other hand, REALLY took a step back in his second season. He finished 19th in kicker scoring. There were 11 guys on the scrap heap ranked ahead of him! I’m chalking that up to kicker randomness and hoping for better things in year three.

I’m cautiously optimistic with the Jets. They finished 7th in defensive scoring, but seem to have a young and talented core on that side of the ball that should continue to play well in 2023 at least. They finished MUCH better than the Rams, that’s for damn sure.

If I had to choose now, I’d go something like this:

  • Justin Fields (QB)
  • Matthew Stafford (QB)
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR)
  • Kenneth Walker (RB)
  • Tony Pollard (RB)
  • Brian Robinson (FLEX)
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE)
  • Evan McPherson (K)
  • N.Y. Jets (DEF)

My first pick is destined to be a quarterback. My second first round pick might ALSO be a quarterback. Then, it’s best player available the rest of the way (likely non-quarterbacks), with probably my early second rounder being another wide receiver.

I’ll be back with an update before next year’s season starts, where I should have a better idea of who I’m keeping.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2022: The Consolation Bracket BYE Week

This season’s previous fantasy football posts:

It was a rough final regular season game for ol’ RoundTine. As noted previously, Fields was on a BYE, Christian Watson was on a BYE, Brian Robinson was on a BYE, Kenneth Walker was out injured, and Matthew Stafford was on IR. That left me with one healthy bench option in Mike White, who finished with 13.4 points in a loss at the Bills. I thought that was the smart play – to bench him – and I feel vindicated in that assessment. 13.4 points is nothing for a quarterback in our league. That being said, the guys I had at my disposal – Mac Jones and Tyler Huntley – got me 7.65 and 7.5 respectively. It hurt severely that Huntley had to leave early. Jones doesn’t have that excuse, he’s just a terrible fucking quarterback.

CeeDee Lamb had a predictably mediocre day against the Texans, which led to great numbers for the Dallas running backs (I had both starting, not necessarily out of necessity). D.K. Metcalf had another good day, and T.J. Hockenson had an okay day for a middling tight end.

Anyway, Einfach A.F. defeated RoundTine 150.35 to 118.65. That dropped me to 5-9 on the season and in 9th place in our 10-team league. Which means! That I! Was not! Last Place! I get to hand off the toilet trophy to Sloane N Steady, who had the misfortune of scoring the 7th-most points in our league, yet had the very most points scored against him.

So, here’s how the playoffs work: the top six teams make it. The top two teams – Car Talk With Josh Allen and Beasts – get BYEs in the first round. The other four play this week.

Also getting BYEs this week: the entire consolation bracket. So, I don’t have to set a lineup or do anything right now.

I’ll be rooting for You Dropped Your Dildo to defeat Einfach A.F. because I have Einfach’s top two draft picks next year, and if he loses this week, he’ll be in the 5th place/6th place game next week, which means that pick will be either 5th or 6th depending on the outcome. However, if Einfach A.F. wins this week, then my extra picks are guaranteed to be 7th or later. Every little bit helps in the first couple rounds!

Even though I’m not setting a lineup, I still made a move this week. I’m officially done with Gabe Davis. He’s out of my life forever, so get ready for him to blow up like he did at the end of last season. In his place, I picked up another quarterback: Jordan Love. Who knows what the Packers will do this offseason? They could ship Aaron Rodgers away and start the Jordan Love era (who has looked very good the last couple times he’s played in games). They could trade Jordan Love for draft picks to a quarterback-needy team. Or, they could just fuck me and decide to keep him as their backup. The possibilities are limitless!

That leaves me with the following quarterbacks (for now) heading into the offseason: Justin Fields, Mike White, Tyler Huntley, Mac Jones, Matthew Stafford, and Jordan Love. I figure Fields is guaranteed to be one of my keepers (barring a devastating knee injury), which leaves me with five quarterbacks for one spot. All terrible options, at the moment.

In looking ahead ever-so-briefly, next week I’ll be going up against The Lance Petemans for my fantasy life. Honestly, it’s probably my best option. The other two teams – Korky Butchek and Sloane N Steady – both out-scored the Petemans this year. Nevertheless, he outscored me by almost 100 points, so it’s not like I’ll be favored or anything. If there was a last place trophy for total points, I would’ve run away with it this year. But, thankfully, we’re in a Head To Head league, so the world is a little unfair for everyone involved.

I’ll be honest, though, I’m a little bummed we’re not playing this week. I have some sweet matchups! If I were setting a lineup, I’ll just say it right now: I wouldn’t be starting Kenneth Walker. Not coming off of a foot injury, and NOT against the 49ers. But, I have Mike White against the Lions, my Cowboys against the nothing defense of Jacksonville, I’ve also got Huntley against a terrible run defense in Cleveland, or Mac Jones against a nothing defense in Vegas. Plus, my Jets defense hosts Detroit; I know the Lions have been hot lately, but that ends this week! I would start the Jets’ defense with no fear!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2022: Here We Go Again

Check out my prior Fantasy Football posts to get a better handle on the type of leagues I’m in. Long story short: I’m in three leagues. One of them means very little to me, but I joined because they needed someone to fill things out. One of them is my sanctuary – my Splinter League – that I created to give me some semblance of hope and control over the way a league should be run. And one of them I care about very deeply, but has been a total and complete disaster for me since 2010 (my last title was 2009, the last year of our pre-trophy era, and it’s stuck in my craw ever since). So, by and large, I’ll be talking about that league in this space on a weekly basis. Of course, the last thing anyone wants to hear is someone complaining about their fantasy football teams (hence the running title of these posts). But, this is my blog, and you’re stuck with me!

I also use it as a means to discuss players I have, players I’m interested in picking up, and players I’m going up against. I’m no fantasy football expert – far from it, in fact – but even the experts can be full of shit on a regular basis, so how is this different than any other fantasy football blog post you might read? At least I’m honest about my incompetence!

My league has morphed quite a bit over the years. It started out as a simple 2-QB 10-team PPR league with points skewed heavily towards the quarterbacks (they’re the most important players in the actual NFL, so they should also be the most important players in fantasy). Then, we started increasing the buy-in, adding keepers, tweaking the point-scoring, to the point where we’re like an everyday, run-of-the-mill 2-QB 10-team PPR dynasty league. We’d talked about going Dynasty for years, and now we’re there. This is the first off-season where we’re keeping a full accompaniment of rosters.

2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF. We all have to keep a full roster of those positions, so when we finally draft on Wednesday, September 7th, we’ll just be drafting for our 5 bench spots (we also have an IR spot, but that doesn’t factor into our draft). Barring some last-minute injury issues, here’s what my team is going to look like heading into the draft:

  • Mac Jones (QB)
  • Justin Fields (QB)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  • Javonte Williams (RB)
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR)
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE)
  • Diontae Johnson (WR)
  • Evan McPherson (K)
  • L.A. Rams (DEF)

Keepers are based on who’s on your roster at the end of the season (wherever you end up in the playoffs, be it consolation bracket or otherwise). The only other QBs I had at the time were Jordan Love and Sean Mannion (don’t ask). Love was only a hedge in case Aaron Rodgers retired or moved to another team, but he’s not really a viable option for me in this instance. I need QBs who are actually going to play. That being said, I’m less than thrilled by my choices. I think Mac Jones is okay (I’m encouraged by how he’s looked in training camp), but Fields looks like a bust. He’s not accurate, he doesn’t make any big plays with his arm, and I don’t think he’s looking to run enough to be of any sort of value with the run game (a la Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen).

I feel both blessed and cursed with my receivers. Of the three, only Lamb figures to be a superstar fantasy producer. The other two are highly talented, but D.K. has the obvious situation of the Seahawks’ quarterback quagmire. And Diontae has a couple of promising throwers, but also a lot of talent around him fighting for targets. Receiver is also the deepest of all the skill spots in the NFL, so blowing my flex on one feels like kind of a waste, when there should be excellent value still remaining in the draft.

I had to do that, of course, because I want to give myself the best chance to win. And, in all honesty, my running back situation – like most – is a disaster. Zeke has been a stalwart for me (when healthy), but he’s obviously over the hill, and being pushed by Pollard hard. And while Williams looks as talented as they get, he’s also in a time-share that figures to sap his value.

But, my alternatives (or flex options) are no better. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a waste of a #2 overall draft pick when he came out as a rookie. That’s a bust you just can’t afford when you’re in a constant state of middling – like I was at the time – nor in a constant state of rebuild (which I’ve been in ever since). Alexander Mattison is the league’s best handcuff, but you can’t really make him a keeper when he’s so clearly behind Dalvin Cook. And I like James Robinson a lot, but the Jags like Travis Etienne even more (who, I unfortunately, do not have).

Tight end is arguably my biggest strength, having Hockenson and Mike Gesicki to choose from. Both figure to be Top 10 guys at their position, but Hockenson has the clear upside over the two. He just needs to stay healthy. It’s fair to doubt his ability to stay on the field, but when you’ve been struggling as I have for over a decade, you choose upside over consistency (especially knowing how much help I’m going to be lacking from my QB spots).

I ended up trading Justin Tucker last year at the deadline, for the ability to swap draft picks. I moved up from the last round (aka the 5th round) to the 2nd round, which is pretty good for a rebuilding guy like me. I’ll take a second 2nd round pick for a kicker anytime! As a bonus, McPherson was available, and he finished within 10 points of Tucker (while hitting more 50-yarders). He’s also considerably younger than Tucker, so if this dynasty holds, I’ll have McPherson for a long chunk of time.

Finally, the Rams aren’t the best fantasy defense, but they’re pretty solid. They’ve got strong players up front and in the secondary; with the addition of Bobby Wagner, I think they’ll continue to be a reliable source of points. If not, then who cares? It’s a fantasy defense, they’re a dime a dozen. Heading into last year, who expected the Cowboys to be the best?

***

We won’t know until a week prior to the draft who is going to be available, as that’s when our keepers are due. That being said, we do know who the rookies are. So, while I haven’t done extensive research on the matter, I’ve dipped my toe.

Kenneth Walker was a guy I was strongly considering. The Seahawks, obviously, favor the run over most teams. And Rashaad Penny can’t be counted upon for long health, so you figure Walker will start out as a backup, but still get some playing time, and maybe sooner rather than later make the leap into full-time starter. If he’s elite, then Walker is going to win the starter’s job at some point. And if he does, he’s going to be a 20-carry-a-game kind of guy, a la Chris Carson. That being said, Walker’s already dealing with a groin injury that’s cost him the final two preseason games. And there’s no guarantee he’ll be ready for Week 1. That’s a bad sign for a rookie, who needs as many reps as possible to acclimate to a new system and a new league.

Breece Hall is, obviously, another option. He went to the Jets – who drafted a talented rookie back last year as well in Michael Carter – but Hall looks to be the real deal, and should assert himself in good time. But, how’s their O-Line? Well, luckily, they snagged Duane Brown, so unless their interior is shit, I could see that actually being okay. Consider me intrigued!

There’s also an interesting little nugget about another rookie running back who I’m keeping to myself. I don’t want to jinx anything, but if I can snag him, it could be a boon to my overall chances.

As for quarterbacks, I really need the help. I’ll take a gander at whoever ends up eligible for drafting among the vets – mostly out of necessity – because there isn’t a huge swath of options from the rookie class. Kenny Pickett is the only viable option, in my mind. Will he be available at #3 when I select? I’m guessing he will be. The bigger question is: when will he take over as starter? Will they give it to him out of the preseason? Or, will he have to sit a few weeks behind Trubisky? I hypothetically have time, because Jones and Fields have BYE weeks in 10 and 14 respectively. So, if they stay healthy, I can afford to sit Pickett on my bench. But, I can’t tell you how many years in a row I’ve gone all in on rookie quarterbacks, only to get the rug pulled out from under me. That being said, what are the odds that NO rookie quarterback this year steps up as a viable star?

I’m willing to let the board fall to me in a lot of ways. The only thing is, I don’t want to reach for a receiver. There are a shit-ton of receivers entering the NFL this year, and your guess is as good as mine who will be the next Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson. I heard there’s a new Steelers receiver who looks awesome, but how much do I want to go all-in on the Steelers offense, especially when I already have Diontae?

We’ll see. I have a couple weeks and a whole-ass vacation to ponder my options. I’ll also have two drafts before I do this one. Maybe a little practice will make perfect. Or, maybe doing little-to-no research will be just the ticket. Maybe I’ve spent the last decade-plus over-thinking every fucking thing, and I just need to sit back and relax. Maybe following the Yahoo rankings – or even letting them draft for me – is what I need to break this curse that’s come over me. Who knows?

All I know is, as always, I’m dreading fantasy football for the mental drain that it is. All this stress and disappointment takes its toll. I’m a glutton for punishment, but at some point even a glutton gets full.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Not The Absolute Worst

If the Toilet Trophy went to the ultimate loser of the Consolation Bracket, and not just the last place team of the regular season, I would’ve actually dodged it this year. What can be worse than being both last place AND the Consolation Bracket loser? Well, playing in and losing the 5/6 game. Not only did you go down in the first round of the playoffs, but you draft below all the Consolation Bracket teams. Woof.

Snoopy & Prickly Pete defeated The Lance Petemans 155.40 to 109.48. He scored far and away the lowest points, but my team actually put up a semi-respectable showing (even if he’d given a shit and filled in the two spots who didn’t play, I’d like to think I would’ve made it interesting). Mac Jones got 30+ for the first time all year (if only every game could be played at home against the Jags), D.K. Metcalf woke up from his lengthy slumber to get 30+, the Rams’ defense got me 23, my rookie kicker got me 11, and even Sean Mannion (a late-week pick up for the injured Justin Fields) got me nearly 17 points and out-performed Taylor Heinicke (who I waived earlier in the week for James Robinson).

This all means that I get the third pick in our fantasy draft next year (where we just draft for our bench spots). I would’ve been much happier drafting in the top two, but it wouldn’t shock me if the cliff of high-profile rookies happens just AFTER the third pick. I don’t know a lot about this rookie class, but we’ll see. Fingers crossed!

All that’s left is to decide my keepers. But, before I do that, let’s run through the other leagues really quick.

Splinter League Round-Up!

BUCK FUTTER handled Beer Thirty relatively easily for third place. Not a bad little season! I’m not as upset by losing last week, knowing that the eventual champion would’ve seriously kicked my ass regardless. Ja’Marr Chase won many championships this week with his 50+ point output. The only downside to third place is I don’t get my money back. But, in this league, if you’re not first, it’s not profitable in the slightest. I’ve never finished worse than 5th, but I’ve also never finished higher than 3rd in the Splinter League (dating back to its inception of 2015). This year really felt like the best team I’ve had in quite some time, in ANY league, so maybe my instincts are heading in the right direction? Or, maybe I just got lucky for a while, until my luck ran out.

Third League Round-Up!

Unfortunately, RUM HAM! didn’t show up at all. I wish I had the fortitude to start Amon-Ra St. Brown (who put up 32.4 points), but he was a waiver pick-up that very week, and I had three other receivers going who I liked a lot. Who wouldn’t start Stefon Diggs vs. Atlanta? Or A.J. Brown vs. Miami? And Jaylen Waddle had been a stalwart for my team all year (at Tennessee). You gotta ride the horses who brought you to the championship; that’s what everyone says. Well, Diggs was an utter disappointment of a second round pick all year (he got me 7.7 this week) and Brown is someone I’m never drafting again after taking him in the third round (he got 5.1 a week after scoring 27 for my bench). Still, I was lucky to get where I got, considering my team was middling-at-best. Not a bad little $50 payout for second place; I doubled up my money. Plus, I can keep Jaylen Waddle heading into next year, which will only cost me a 13th round pick.

Potential 2022 Dynasty Keepers

I don’t have to decide who my dynasty team will be until somewhere around a week before next season’s fantasy draft. Nevertheless, barring some shocking developments, I have my mind set for the most part.

Quarterbacks – Mac Jones is as close to a lock as I have (he’s the only one on my roster in the top 25 in our league in scoring, 18th overall). Then, it boils down to Justin Fields or Jordan Love. Love is, obviously, off the board if Aaron Rodgers is back again. But, otherwise, I’m strongly considering him over Fields. Fields obviously has a lot going for him: his legs, his high draft status, his acumen in big games in college. But, he’s got a terrible coaching staff (that, in all likelihood, will turn over this offseason), while Love (assuming he’s still with the Packers) will be part of a first-rate organization and a high-quality offensive mind at head coach. I’ll need to see who takes over for the Bears as head coach and what his offensive pedigree is before I opt for Fields. I have no problem keeping Love, because I know regardless, the quarterback position will be a high priority for me again in the 2022 draft.

Wide Receivers – This is probably a done deal, but I can’t yet say it’s 100% locked in. However, in some order, I like D.K. Metcalf (15th in scoring), Diontae Johnson (8th in scoring), and CeeDee Lamb (16th in scoring). We’ll have to see what the quarterback situation is in Seattle and Pittsburgh before I can fully commit. The lone downside to keeping three receivers is the fact that there’s usually an uber-stud at receiver in the NFL Draft every year. Two years ago, it was Justin Jefferson; last year, it was Chase. Who will it be this year, and will that person be available at the third overall pick in our league? Regardless, it’s usually easy enough to find a third receiver on waivers; hell, I picked up Johnson as a free agent someone let go! So, I might keep an extra running back just to hedge my bets on that position, which can be so difficult to fill and keep healthy.

Running Backs – Javonte Williams is a lock (15th in running back scoring); I just have to hope the Broncos fire their coaching staff and come to their senses in making him the bellcow. Ezekiel Elliott is probably a lock (7th in running back scoring), simply because he has to have at least one more good year left. I’m reluctant to get too excited, because his contract is so high; I could see Dallas wanting to get out from under it as soon as financially viable. They’ve also pretty much made their running back position a timeshare with Tony Pollard, who has often flashed as the better back this season. If I were to keep a third back, I have options. If, for whatever reason, Dalvin Cook is no longer the guy in Minnesota, then Alexander Mattison becomes a Must Keep. I also took a flier on the aforementioned James Robinson (24th in scoring in spite of all his injury woes this year); we’ll have to see how he recovers from his torn Achilles. If it looks like he might be back for the regular season (or not too long after the season starts) he could be a good player to stash. He’s been remarkably effective for a guy on a terrible team the last two years. The more I think about it, the more I’m leaning towards keeping three running backs, and hoping to fill out the receiver position in the draft. The running back I’m definitely NOT keeping is Clyde Edwards-Helaire; what a BUST! I took him with the second overall pick as a rookie and he’s done NOTHING to justify it. I don’t even want to know who I passed over to take him.

Tight End – It’s T.J. Hockenson (13th among tight ends, in spite of missing multiple games due to injury). He was somehow left on the waiver wire and I snapped him up. My other option is Mike Gesicki (8th among tight ends), but I don’t love the fact that he hasn’t developed a rapport with Tua. Usually, mediocre quarterbacks with no deep game thrive with tight ends, but somehow it hasn’t clicked (Gesicki was MUCH better with FitzMagic at the helm). Hockenson is the kind of talent who could make a huge leap forward in the next year or two; sort of the next Mark Andrews perhaps.

Kicker – I thought I was going to be screwed here after trading away Justin Tucker; it was still a good trade for me, because I need the extra draft pick more than I need an elite kicker over 30 years of age. As it turns out, I may have fallen ass-backwards into Justin Tucker 2.0 with Evan McPherson, the rookie Bengals kicker who was just named the AFC Special Teams Player Of The Month for December. Through this past week, he’s the third-highest scoring kicker in the league (just 2 points behind Tucker), he’s hit the most 50+ yard field goals, and he’s only missed 2 extra points for an offense that scores in bunches. Considering the first kicker off the board in our last draft was Harrison Butker, and McPherson has outscored him by 24 points, I think I’m in a pretty strong position for years to come (now watch him totally shit the bed as a sophomore).

Defense – I guess I’m happy enough with the Rams. They were the 8th highest scoring defense this year in our league, which is respectable. I’m assuming they’ll continue to be pretty reliable next year, but I’m also confident this will be a position from year-to-year with the most turnover in our league.

Here’s a quick cheat sheet for what I’m thinking for next year:

  • Mac Jones (QB)
  • Justin Fields (QB) or Jordan Love (QB)
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) or Diontae Johnson (WR)
  • Javonte Williams (RB)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  • FLEX: Metcalf/Johnson, Alexander Mattison (RB), or James Robinson (RB)
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE)
  • Evan McPherson (K)
  • L.A. Rams (DEF)

I’m excited about my receivers, I’m excited about Williams, and I’m really excited about my tight end, kicker, and defense. I’m cautiously optimistic about Jones, but overall underwhelmed with all of my quarterback options. And, considering the early comments on rookie QBs coming out of this draft, I don’t know if there’s a lot of hope for the 2022 season. I need to catch a few breaks somewhere.

Well, that’s it for fantasy football in 2021. As always, I’m glad it’s over. I will say, this year hasn’t been so agonizing from week to week. I had one really good team, one team that over-achieved, and my dynasty team was in a full rebuilding mode. I didn’t get everything that I wanted out of this year, but no one ever does. On to 2022.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Mac & Me

I’m in a little text thread with two of the other guys slated to play in the Consolation Bracket this season. They’re both pretty disgruntled with the new Dynasty format, and have been since the very beginning. I turned out to be one of the swing votes, in that in the past I had always voted against hard change in the league. But, after slowly building things to where we went – to four keepers per year – it finally felt like it was time to make good on a long-ago dream. If you weren’t in a Dynasty League mindset by now, you were never going to get there. I got there, and I’m all in.

I love the Dynasty League! And I’m in absolute last place, with no real hope of climbing out before the end of the season. Spoiler alert: Snoopy & Prickly Pete lost to Toot Cannons 191.85 to 164.35; meanwhile, Korky Butchek won his matchup against The Lance Petemans (the two I referenced in the above text chain) to all but guarantee his avoidance of the Toilet Trophy. Oddly enough, had I won, there would’ve been a three-way tie at the bottom (all 4-9 records) with Korky and my upcoming opponent, Sloane N Steady, which would’ve created a legitimate Toilet Bowl scenario, where – depending on the outcomes – any of the three of us could’ve taken the trophy. As it is, I think it’s mine for sure.

Anyway, my point is, as the worst team in the league, I have the most right to be disgruntled with the new format, but I’m all in. Because I’ve spent the last few years cultivating this mindset. Patience. Playing for the future. Acquiring future keepers either via free agency or trades. It helps that Javonte Williams has gone off the last two weeks (including scoring 29.8 points this past week, when he was given full starter’s reps), shoring up one of my running back spots. I feel like I’m ALMOST there. It’s not a perfect team, that’s obvious. It might not even be a good team next year. But, I should see improvement. I should avoid last place at the very least! Between what I’ve done this year, and how I set my team up going forward with the next year’s draft, there could be a nice little shake-up! We’ll see.

The key to it all is, was, and always has been finding at least one viable quarterback in 2021. Ideally two. But, one for sure. Granted, this is something I’ve been looking for since I can’t even remember anymore. Forever, probably. I thought I had something good with a rookie Carson Wentz. I lost my mind last year when I was able to nab Tua off free agency before he was handed the starter’s job. But, I’ve always kind of half-assed it. I was trying to have it both ways, develop an elite quarterback of the future, while trying to also win. I succeeded in doing neither. This year, it’s been all about the QB position. I’ve had up to six QBs on my roster at any given moment; right now, I have four, including Jordan Love as a lottery ticket. Love is my option if no one else asserts themselves in the next few weeks (or in offseason workouts).

I think I have the one, though. Mac Jones. There’s a lot to like there. He’s in a good system, with a good coaching staff. He’s got good players around him. He’s careful with the football. He’s got some skills and put up some nice fantasy numbers as a rookie. He looks like, at the moment, the best quarterback of this rookie class. We’ll see if that translates to future fantasy success, but he’s the best quarterback I’ve got at the moment.

Well, technically Taylor Heinicke has the most fantasy points on the year, but that’s as underwhelming of a dynasty quarterback as you can get. With that noodle arm? He’d have to be the next Peyton Manning, and I don’t think he is. For me, it’s down to either Justin Fields or Jordan Love as my second QB option heading into next year, but I’m pretty well convinced that I will need to address this position again in the draft next year.

But, I can’t throw away a second season trying to chase down the quarterback position. I need to figure it out next year. Which means I need to be right on Mac Jones. If I have him already in place, then I’m in pretty good shape. There’s hope that he’ll take a step forward in his second season, and then we’ll be off and running.

Unfortunately, I needed him this past week, and he failed to deliver. As noted, Toot Cannons came to play. The return of Kyler Murray buried me in a pretty deep hole. But, Diontae Johnson put up 30.5 to go with Williams’ high score, and the rest of my team did just enough to get me to within 28 points of winning. I had Mac Jones going against Buffalo on Monday Night Football. 28 points isn’t outlandish! An elite quarterback should be able to give you that in a pinch. Of course, Mac Jones has only reached that lofty target a few times this year, so we really needed him to give it all he had. It turns out, I got next-to-nothing from him, as the Patriots threw the ball only three times in their 14-10 victory over the Bills. Mac Jones had zero turnovers and was healthy for the entire game, yet he came away with 0.65 points. That’s not inspiring a ton of confidence heading into next year. (of course, the weather was a mess, with wind gusts up to 55 mph, but that’s neither here nor there).

This is it, the last week of the regular season. I’m 3-10, going up against the 4-9 Sloane N Steady. I would need to win, have Korky Butchek lose to Beasts, and outscore Korky by 59.02 points to avoid the Toilet Trophy. It ain’t happening. You hate to see it. Here’s my team:

  • Taylor Heinicke (QB) vs. DAL
  • Justin Fields (QB) @ GB
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) @ WAS
  • Diontae Johnson (WR) @ MIN
  • Javonte Williams (RB) vs. DET
  • Alexander Mattison (RB) vs. PIT
  • TBD (TE)
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ HOU
  • Ryan Succup (K) vs. BUF
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) @ ARI

Mac Jones is on a BYE, as is tight end Mike Gesicki. I’m going to try to pick up another tight end to keep on my roster the rest of the season, but we’ll see how it goes. At some point, I’m going to have a roster decision to make, because I can only abuse the IR slot so much. Right now, Jordan Love is on COVID IR, which should only work for a day or two (since he’s truly vaccinated and not just immunized). I’ve been trying to shore up my running back position heading into this offseason, but I’d like to keep some options open depending on what happens going into next year. I’ve got some choice backups on my roster I’d love to hold onto, but my team is just too damn healthy at the moment! I might end up dropping a kicker for a little bit until things get less hairy.

Here’s what Sloane N Steady has to work with (he’s another future Consolation Bracket foe I might have to contend with again in the near future):

  • Derek Carr (QB) @ KC
  • Aaron Rodgers (QB) vs. CHI
  • Mike Evans (WR) vs. BUF
  • Chase Claypool (WR) @ MIN
  • Nick Chubb (RB) vs. BAL
  • Darrel Williams (RB) vs. LV
  • Kyle Pitts (TE) @ CAR
  • Mark Ingram (RB) @ NYJ
  • TBD (K)
  • TBD (DEF)

My boy got swallowed up pretty good with the BYEs this week. He’s gonna have to make some moves to fill out his roster; I’m sure there will be ample opportunities out there for him. He also has a number of players that I’m going with in other leagues, so I would love for those guys to play really well (you know who you are).

Splinter League Round-Up!

BUCK FUTTER had the week all wrapped up before Monday, so we didn’t need Mac Jones to do anything (thank Christ!). The win leapfrogged me over Eddie’s team, into second place at 9-4. I’m one game behind Beer Thirty at 10-3, with two weeks to go. I’m not locked into a playoff spot yet, but with one more win I’m all but guaranteed. I have the second-most points in the league (50 behind Beer Thirty), which is appropriate. I just need to not fall apart over the next two games and I should be all right! Then, it’s playoff time, and we let the chips fall where they may. Shout out to Chris Godwin, Matthew Stafford, and the Indy defense for really carrying me last week!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: A Three-Time Loser

I’m in three fantasy football leagues. I didn’t intend to be in so many, but it just happened that way. I have my longstanding – now Dynasty – league with my college friends that I write about here; I have my Splinter League that I write a little blurb about at the end of each of these posts; and I’m in a league with my brother and his work friends (they had an opening and needed someone to fill it at the last minute). All three leagues have different rules and therefore bring something unique to the table.

And, somehow, I managed to lose in all three this week.

The ONLY positive to being in three leagues is that it’s really hard to lose ALL of your games. You can have a really shitty weekend, but usually you’ll at least find one of your three teams victorious. It’s a rare, special kind of sucking that sees you go 0-3 in the same calendar weekend.

Snoopy & Prickly Pete lost to Beasts 157.15 to 80.25. I was without a tight end – due to injuries/COVID – but that didn’t matter. I got just over 20 points combined out of my two QBs, and everyone else just sort of shit the bed. Somehow, Justin Fields outscored everyone on my team, but he was on my bench because he was going up against the Steelers’ defense. Mike White somehow outscored Mac Jones even though White lasted only two drives and Jones’ team won 24-6. I don’t even know.

My general thoughts on last week are that scoring was down for pretty much everyone because it was a weird week in the NFL. Also, my team fucking SUUUUUUUCKS, so there’s that.

Jordan Love looked … not great. From what I saw of that game, the Chiefs’ defense was blitzing early and often, and he couldn’t make them pay. I know he’s a young guy making his first regular season start, but that was hella cringe. I am, helplessly, still no closer to finding my quarterbacks of the future.

This week, I’ll be facing Car Talk With Josh Allen, the team I played in week one. That was one of my two victories this season, so I’m sure he’s looking for revenge. Here is a tentative lineup I’m looking at:

  • Mac Jones (QB) vs. CLE
  • Taylor Heinicke (QB) vs. TB
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs. ATL
  • Diontae Johnson (WR) vs. DET
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) vs. ATL
  • TBD (RB)
  • Dawson Knox (TE) @ NYJ
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ GB
  • Justin Tucker (K) @ MIA
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) @ SF

I need to pick up another running back. David Montgomery is back, which means Khalil Herbert is back to being his understudy; regardless, the Bears are on a BYE this week anyway. CEH is still on IR and isn’t likely to return this week. So, I’ll be looking to drop Herbert after everyone clears waivers and pick up someone to get me points. I would think about dropping one of my tight ends – I have Knox and Noah Fant still – but this tight end decision is going to have ramifications for years to come, so I’d like to make a measured, patient decision on the matter.

As for QB, Fields is on BYE, Love returns to my bench (as Rodgers is said to be starting against the Seahawks, assuming he clears COVID), and White is coming off of an in-game injury, so I’d like to see him survive a full game before starting him. Also, Buffalo has a pretty good defense and I could see them smashing the living daylights out of the Jets in response to blowing it against the Jags last week.

A.J. Brown is the WR I’m sitting this week. I don’t know if that’s a smart choice or not, though I have to expect the Saints (who they’re playing this week) will put their very best cornerback on him all game. Now that I’ve said that, I’ve just ensured Brown goes off for multiple TDs; it’s okay, I have him going in another league, so it won’t be a total waste if he crushes it.

Car Talk is looking at this collective of players:

  • Josh Allen (QB) @ NYJ
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) vs. LAR
  • Robert Woods (WR) @ SF
  • Cole Beasley (WR) @ NYJ
  • Aaron Jones (RB) vs. SEA
  • Leonard Fournette (RB) @ WAS
  • Travis Kelce (TE) @ LV
  • Melvin Gordon (RB) vs. PHI
  • Tyler Bass (K) @ NYJ
  • Baltimore (DEF) @ MIA

This looks like a massacre waiting to happen. There’s no way Allen has two bad games in a row, especially against a team as inept as the Jets. Jimmy G – one of my pile of QBs from earlier this season – comes back to haunt me. Aaron Jones is a super stud, as is Travis Kelce (who has been relatively quiet this season … except when he’s going against me in fantasy).

We’re officially one time through the league on this season. I’ve played everyone once, and I’m 2-7 as a result. Of course, I’m in last place, both in record and in total points. I have five games remaining before the regular season ends and I have to figure out some way to succeed in the Consolation Bracket. Here’s hoping things start looking a little more clear over the next month!

Splinter League Round-Up!

This week was pretty much decided on Thursday night, as Jonathan Taylor scored 34 points when he was projected to only get 18. Otherwise, Vinegar Strokes didn’t do so hot! But, BUCK FUTTER did far worse, in spite of making all the right 50/50 moves on who to start and who to sit. I was severely hampered by the Bucs being on a BYE and losing both of my starting receivers. My team should be at full strength this week, though, as I try to avenge my week one loss to 50 Shades Of Gritty. Her team isn’t super great, but she can step up and bring the smack down when she has to.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: My Best Week Of The Year, Followed By Probably My Worst

I have no explanation for what just happened last week. Snoopy & Prickly Pete came from out of nowhere to blow out Space Forcin’ 200.45 to 127.00. I’ll be honest, I can’t remember the last time I had a 200-point game in this league. I can’t remember ANYONE who’s gotten a 200-point game in this league who had a combined 30.15 points between their two starting quarterbacks. But, that’s what I got out of Mac Jones and Taylor Heinicke.

Heinicke is an interesting test case for me and my luck in this league when it comes to quarterbacks. In his three starts before I picked him up, he averaged 28.57 points; in his two starts since, he’s combined for 19.50 points. Yeah.

But, the rest of my team absolutely DOMINATED! CeeDee Lamb led the way with 36.1, the Rams’ defense got me 29, Noah Fant got me 24.7, Khalil Herbert, Diontae Johnson, and Zeke Elliott all got me in the high teens. D.K. Metcalf was my lowest scorer and he still managed 11.8.

The victory improbably – and temporarily – improved me to 2-4 and in 9th place in the league. I say temporarily, because this week is bound to be a shitshow. There are lots of great teams on BYE this week, and I am among the many fantasy owners hurting to fill out a roster.

This week, I face COVID Bubble Boys, the first place team. It’s going to be a massacre; here is my lineup:

  • Jameis Winston (QB) @ SEA
  • Justin Fields (QB) @ TB
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) vs. NO
  • A.J. Brown (WR) vs. KC
  • Khalil Herbert (RB) @ TB
  • Trey Sermon (RB) vs. IND
  • Noah Fant (TE) @ CLE
  • TBD (FLEX)
  • Justin Tucker (K) vs. CIN
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) vs. DET

Lamb & Zeke are on BYE for Dallas, and Johnson is on BYE for Pittsburgh. I’m starting Jameis because he’s going up against the Seahawks and that’s what you do when you have guys going up against that defense. I’m starting Fields mostly based on a hunch. The Bucs’ secondary is depleted and their defense as a whole is pretty underwhelming. That means, of course, I’m benching Mac Jones against the Jets, but he struggled mightily the last time they played the Jets; I’m also benching Heinicke because he’s annoying the shit out of me.

Both of my running backs are in terrible matchups, and only one figures to get the start for his team. That’s putting me at a severe disadvantage; I’m sure there are more viable options on waivers. Furthermore, I have no one to go in my FLEX spot. And I don’t think I’m going to do anything about it.

Look, it’s a dynasty league. I have a terrible team that has no chance this season, and I am dedicating my year to going all-in for the future. That means not losing potential keeper candidates in trying to win one meaningless game in Week 7. The bottom line is: I have a quarterback problem. I’m HOPING that Justin Fields and Mac Jones will become worthy starters going forward, but so far they’ve yet to really bust out or even give me consistent average production from week to week. Jameis Winston is probably my best trade chip at this point, so I’m not just going to drop him for nothing. Heinicke has been disappointing since joining my team, but at least he still fits the criteria of being a young guy who has the potential to bust out. And, as I’ve stated all along, I’m holding onto Jordan Love through the season, in the event that I opt to go with him (assuming he’ll be the starter in Green Bay next year).

I also have a lowkey running back problem. Zeke Elliott is great, but has a lot of mileage on his legs. CEH has largely been disappointing. Below them, I have two young guys who are backups, but both look like potential keeper candidates (especially Sermon) who I don’t want to lose.

These are the weeks where there’s a lot of roster turnover on the waiver wire, as contending teams look to fill out their rosters. I’m not in a position to win this year, so I’ll be looking to bolster my future prospects. That’s all there is to it. If you’re lucky enough to play against me in these types of weeks, you’re more likely to see a victory. If you’re the rest of the league, you’re bound to be upset. I don’t know what to tell you; take care of your own business and stop worrying about mine.

COVID Bubble Boys has that luxury this week, and here’s who he’s running out there:

  • Lamar Jackson (QB) vs. CIN
  • Trey Lance (QB) vs. IND
  • Terry McLaurin (WR) @ GB
  • Ja’Marr Chase (WR) @ BAL
  • Jonathan Taylor (RB) @ SF
  • TBD (RB)
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE) @ LAR
  • Jaylen Waddle (WR) vs. ATL
  • TBD (K)
  • New England (DEF) vs. NYJ

As you can see, he’s not taking me seriously. Frankly, I don’t blame him. Lance would be a good option, if it looked at all like he was going to start this week. But, Jimmy G is back (and some other fantasy owner snapped him up recently), so Lance figures to be a zero, or close to it.

COVID Bubble Boys has a lot of Cowboys on his team, including Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, their kicker, and their defense. That’s a lot of BYE real estate, and he’s not looking to drop any of them (at least, at press time). Most likely, he won’t need to do a thing to beat me, but it wouldn’t shock me if we see some moves made in the wee hours of Sunday morning, when no one is paying attention.

I should say that I made him an offer this past week, Jameis for Lance, with a swap of picks in next year’s draft. Considering he’s got Lamar and Dak, and considering he can only keep two quarterbacks heading into next year, there isn’t a ton of incentive for him to hang onto Lance. Jameis would be a much better fantasy backup for him, considering he’s very much in the running for a championship this season. But, who am I to tell someone how to run his team?

I’m expecting to lose regardless, but it will be virtually guaranteed if-and-when he makes any roster changes ahead of Sunday morning. I’m sure my team will score well under 100 points, and more than a few people in the league will be mad for a while. What can you do?

Splinter League Round-Up!

I motherfucking lost with the second-most motherfucking points to the motherfucker with the most points, because this is my motherfucking luck in this motherfucking league! I’m 3-3 now, I’ve scored the second-most points in the league after six games, but I also have the second-most points scored against me. It’s asinine! What in the motherfuck do I have to do to start piling up some motherfucking wins?! I’m good enough to win it all, but I’m not going to do that if I bad-luck my way into the Consolation Bracket! GOD DAMN I hate motherfucking fantasy football!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Snoopy & Prickly Pete

Also, check out the Fantasy Football tag for all my past ramblings on the subject.

Last year ended as horribly as can be in my Main League. I made the 6-team playoffs, but then promptly lost in the first round. That means I missed out on the 4-team consolation bracket – which plays for the top 4 draft picks the following season – and was saddled in the 5/6 game, playing for the 5th/6th draft pick. Of course, I lost that game as well, and here I was, heading into this season drafting 6th out of 10 teams, in a standard (non-snake) draft.

Last year, we were up to 4 keepers, having steadily increased that number over the last few years, with the ultimate goal of turning the league into a Dynasty League. Finally, there was enough discontent that the talk at this year’s rules meeting centered on, “We either need to go full dynasty, or blow it all up and eliminate keepers altogether.”

I don’t mind telling you I was lobbying hard to go with the dynasty league. I’ve been spending the last few years suffering mediocre finishes all in the name of trying to find the best keepers possible to carry over (with the primary goal of finding one or two quality quarterbacks to finally cement that position once and for all). I didn’t want all of that work to go to waste. Thankfully, by the thinnest of margins, we were able to vote in the dynasty.

Our set up is like this: we have to keep all of our starting positions. 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF. Easy peasy. We’ll get to wait until about a week before our fantasy draft next year before declaring who those keepers will be. Then, at the draft, we’ll select our 5 bench spots out of whoever’s left over, plus any incoming rookies.

This all starts NEXT year, meaning that we’re still only carrying over 4 keepers from last season. But, with our draft – that took place last Thursday – it’s officially on. If you’re not going all-in on the dynasty aspect with regards to who you’re drafting, then that means you like your team an awful lot and are pushing to win the championship within the next 1-2 years.

I didn’t love my keepers heading into our draft, because – SPOILER ALERT – I had no quarterbacks among the four. My keepers were:

  1. A.J. Brown (WR)
  2. CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  3. Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

That’s the ranking of how much I liked them, 1 through 4. I was waffling back and forth on CEH until the bitter end, before I read enough pundits who think he’s due to have a bounce-back year in his second season in the league. I can buy it. He doesn’t appear to have a lot of competition at the spot in Kansas City; even though they throw the ball WAY MORE than they run it, he could sneak in for some more touchdowns and still catch a lot of balls.

I had zero interest in keeping Josh Jacobs. He was supposed to be my horse last year, but he underwhelmed, and then the Raiders brought in Kenyan Drake (the bane of every fantasy owner’s existence wherever he plays, because he’s always stealing carries from someone more promising). I had a lot of fringey receivers I was mulling over (Jerry Jeudy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Chark, and Rashard Higgins), but all of those guys are players that could easily be had in any fantasy draft.

As for my two quarterbacks, I had Kirk Cousins (who’s a non-starter for me, since he’s not vaccinated – which means there’s a high likelihood he misses games this year – and he’s just overall mediocre), and Tua Tagovailoa. I made a HUGE to-do about picking him up on waivers last year, thinking his Alabama pedigree might translate to NFL success. But, he just looked too shitty as a rookie last year. More often than not, you can see which rookie quarterbacks are going to be studs, and which ones are going to be Marcus Mariota. Tua looks like he’s going to be a left-handed Mariota.

In the end, my final keeper came down to CEH and Tee Higgins. I was THIS close to keeping Higgins, because I freaking love that dude, and I think in that Bengals offense he’s going to be steadily productive for the next decade. But, the Bengals also went out and drafted another elite receiver really high in this year’s draft, plus they still have Tyler Boyd, who’s solid. There ended up being too many cooks in that kitchen, and I was scared off. I still think Higgins will be the best of those three this year, but going forward, it’s iffy.

Plus, let’s face it, there are tons of solid wide receivers all throughout the league. Keeping three of them seemed like overkill. I would’ve been effectively handing over my FLEX spot to Higgins, and if for whatever reason he struggles, then I’ve wasted one of my keeper spots for a fringe fantasy starter.

***

I had a couple plans heading into the draft with my 6th overall pick. Trevor Lawrence would obviously be off the table (he, indeed, went #1 overall). I assumed Najee Harris would also be off the table (he ended up being taken with the third pick, for reasons I’ll get into in a moment). I ranked my top six players, and my third choice would’ve been Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (who very well might’ve fallen to me, as he was ultimately taken 7th), followed by Matthew Stafford (who did fall to me, though I ended up trading him – SPOILER ALERT AGAIN), and then the Washington and Indy running backs as 5th and 6th (they ended up going 5th and 4th respectively).

I would’ve been elated to have Matthew Stafford, because I think he’s going to have an awesome year with the Rams. Plus, he’s only 33 years old, which means he could have another 7-10 years ahead of him if things break right!

My general plan was to load up on quarterbacks – taking lots of flyers on rookies, after Stafford – and running backs (to try to load up on depth in case of injuries and BYEs). This was always going to be a quasi-throwaway year for me, in hopes that I’d find the two quarterbacks I’d be rolling with for the next 5-10 years.

That was thrown out the window when Hahmez Wah 360 Allstars (don’t ask) texted the entire league saying his keepers were available for trade (in exchange for players and/or draft picks).

He actually had four pretty good keepers (Derrick Henry, D.K. Metcalf, George Kittle, and Stefon Diggs), but for whatever reason, he was looking to shake things up.

I didn’t want Henry because he’s being run into the ground and probably has 1-2 more years MAX before he begins his slide. I didn’t want Kittle because he could be an injury risk with the way he plays the game and how hard he is on his body. D.K. Metcalf is obviously a huge draw for me, as a Seahawks fan, and I think he’s someone who could be the #1 scoring wide receiver as early as THIS year. Plus he’s young and should be good for another decade. Sign me up!

I made Hahmez Wah 360 Allstars a lowball offer (I think a second rounder, or a fourth rounder plus A.J. Brown); he countered saying he needed my first rounder. I took a bit to think about it, before ultimately concluding that D.K. Metcalf with the 6th pick would be guaranteed to be better than anyone who might fall to me (there would’ve been the potential for higher upside with someone like Pitts, but there’s always a risk with any rookie).

I’m lucky I accepted the offer when I did, because by the next day someone had offered him the #2 overall pick for D.K. I told that guy (with the #2 pick) if Trevor Lawrence somehow – by the grace of God – fell out of the top spot, I’d trade him D.K. for Lawrence (which he agreed to, since he already has Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert as his keepers), but of course that was never going to happen.

Hahmez Wah, in the end, turned his aforementioned keepers into Jalen Hurts (#2 overall) & Chris Carson (he traded his #9 overall for the #2 overall, while also giving away Derrick Henry in the deal), Matthew Stafford (in the Metcalf deal), Tyler Lockett (in the Kittle deal, where he got the first pick in the second round), while still hanging onto Stefon Diggs. I wouldn’t love that for my team – if I were him, I would’ve stuck the keepers I had – but I understand the impulse in making a radical change. Also, it IS a game, after all; it’s supposed to be fun, right? What’s more fun than a crazy slew of trades?

***

So, heading into the second round, I had three receivers and two running backs. It was time to start looking into the quarterback position.

No other QB was taken after the three I already mentioned. Next up on my private dynasty rankings was Justin Fields, so I grabbed him with my second pick. No, he’s not starting right away, but the stories I’ve read about him were phenomenal, and I think he has real breakout potential. Trey Lance was going to be my next choice, but he was taken from me two picks before my spot in the third round, so I settled on Mac Jones. Also hearing great stories about him! Less of a running threat, but in a better team situation than Fields, so I like that.

Then, for good measure – because I needed someone to start right away in week one – I nabbed Jameis Winston. He’s been on and off my fantasy team for years, but he had last year off (for the most part) and has been learning the Saints’ system. If he’s even remotely more careful with the ball, he’s a guy who’s capable of throwing for 5,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns. We also forget: he’s also only 27 years old; so if he does change his entire career around, that could be a steal for me.

As chance would have it, Cousins was around for my fifth pick, but I zagged and went with the Rams’ defense. I feel like they have the potential to be solid for the duration of Aaron Donald’s career, so why not? Then, with my sixth pick, Noah Fant was still available. I had him as a rookie and it sounds like the offense is going to be vastly improved in Denver, so I like the idea of having him for the foreseeable future. Also, the drop-off after Fant was pretty considerable (the next guys taken were Goedert and Tonyan; I’m good with my choice).

Then, I finally had to break down and get a third running back. Obviously, my plan to load up on the position was a failure. It was down to Chase Edmonds or Raheem Mostert in the 7th round. Edmonds went one pick earlier, so Mostert it is! I like Mostert; when he’s healthy, he’s dominant (in many ways, he’s like Chris Carson). He just can’t stay healthy. But, if I can squeeze a few weeks out of him, I’ll look to hopefully address the running back position next year.

In the 8th round, I nabbed Justin Tucker. He’s only 31 years old and he’s the best kicker in football. He could be around for another 10-15 years if he takes care of himself. After that, I went back to the quarterback well, grabbing Jimmy G. Obviously, the 49ers drafted their quarterback of the future. But, if you look at the 49ers’ schedule, it’s pretty damn easy the first few weeks of the season. I’ll mix and match with him and Mac Jones for a while until Jimmy G ultimately gets benched, and hope he has enough pride to force the 49ers’ hand in benching a guy playing well. At the very least, he has a soft landing against the Lions in week one, where I expect him to be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback (for just that one week, anyway). Yes, I know there’s potential for Lance to snipe some snaps from him, but I don’t care. As long as he’s not getting entire chunks of plays in the red zone, I’ll be happy.

With my next-to-last pick, I took a chance on Buffalo’s Zack Moss. He was a rookie last year and the team obviously liked him enough to draft him in the third round. Maybe this is the year he assumes the starter job! Of course, even then, it’s not like Buffalo runs the ball all that much. I’m hoping they get such huge leads early in games, that they’ll be running the ball exclusively in the fourth quarter.

Finally, for my super sleeper, I picked Jordan Love, backup quarterback of the Green Bay Packers. I’m going to do my damnedest to hang onto him all year. The way I see it, if none of my rookie QBs pan out this year, and are not keeper-worthy in my eyes, I’ll just keep Love and roll the dice. They obviously drafted him to be Aaron Rodgers’ replacement sooner or later. If I have no one better, why not keep him and see if he’s elite?

***

There’s obviously a lot wrong with my team at this point in my dynasty. The quarterback situation is a mess and my running back depth is nil. But, I have just the three receivers: D.K., Brown, and Lamb, and I think all three of those guys are Top 10 calibre players at the position. I’m set! In non-BYE weeks (and, in non-injury situations), I have my two WR spots and my FLEX spot all locked down. Not having any receivers on my bench affords me the luxury of carrying extra RBs and QBs. If I’m ever able to lock down the quarterback spot to my satisfaction, that leaves me more room on my bench for even more RBs, as well as potential backups to tight end or defense (which always comes in handy).

I think I’m done making RBs a priority. Unless some super-stud rookie falls to me in the first round of the draft next year, I’m just going to do my best to either stream running backs or carry enough in those second-to-fourth tiers to play matchups and hope I get around 10 points from each. If my QBs and receivers can carry me, I think that’s a championship formula. Running backs are just too damn fickle and too injury prone; it’s impossible to rely on them to be 20+ point workhorses anymore. I’d rather go for elite receivers, hope they blow up a few times a year, and just get steady-if-unspectacular production from my RBs. Plus, if I’m able to find someone on the free agent scrap heap that comes from nowhere to crush it, all the better.

***

Now, it’s time to talk about this week. My team is Snoopy & Prickly Pete (Seinfeld reference, for the second straight year!). I’m going up against the reigning league champion, Car Talk With Josh Allen (guess who one of his quarterbacks is). He’s projected to finish third in our league (one game ahead of me), and – not for nothing – he’s projected to beat me in week 1.

Here’s my week 1 lineup, barring any unexpected last-minute COVID issues:

  • Jameis Winston (QB) vs. GB
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) @ DET
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) @ TB
  • A.J. Brown (WR) vs. AZ
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ TB
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) vs. CLE
  • Noah Fant (TE) @ NYG
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ IND
  • Justin Tucker (K) @ LV
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) vs. CHI

As I said, I love Jimmy G against a nothing Detroit defense; Mac Jones is my only other option and I’d rather not start a rookie in his first game, against a defense as good as Miami’s. As I also said, all my receivers are locked in, which means the only other choice was my #2 running back (though, I don’t love Zeke against that Bucs defense, with their All Pro guard out for this game). I briefly considered Mostert against Detroit, but I’d really like to see what the 49ers’ offense looks like, with their two quarterbacks, plus their new rookie running back angling to steal snaps. I’m rolling with all my keepers, at least for now!

Car Talk looks like he’s got the following:

  • Josh Allen (QB) vs. PIT
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) vs. LAC
  • Allen Robinson (WR) @ LAR
  • Julio Jones (WR) vs. AZ
  • Aaron Jones (RB) @ NO
  • Joe Mixon (RB) vs. MIN
  • Travis Kelce (TE) vs. CLE
  • Robert Woods (WR) vs. CHI
  • Tyler Bass (K) vs. PIT
  • Baltimore (DEF) @ LV

Our teams are pretty much even (he’s a little better at QB, I’m a little better at WR) except for the difference in our projected points from the tight end position. Kelce is the best in football; mine is just okay. That’s always a huge advantage and I hope I’m able to one day have something similar on my team. In the meantime, I’ll just have to hope the Chiefs run the ball more and throw their TDs to their wide receivers. That’s a tall ask.

I’m guessing I’ll lose this game. I’ll be down in the dumps on Sunday, but a dynasty league isn’t about just one week, or even one season. This is a transitional year, and I hope to be better at the end than I am at the beginning.

In the meantime, PATIENCE! I need to practice extreme patience, and accept losing for what it is: a temporary means to an end, that will one day result in my name on that championship trophy. Maybe not this year, but one year soon. Let’s fucking go.