Tag Archives: Julio Rodriguez

I Think We Have An Opening Day Roster For The Mariners!

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Nothing is official, of course. There could always be a last-minute transaction, or a surprise injury or something. But, barring anything crazy, I think we have a 26-man roster.

The Starting Pitchers

  • Luis Castillo
  • Robbie Ray
  • Logan Gilbert
  • Marco Gonzales
  • George Kirby

This all checks out, right down to the order. Teams love the righty-lefty-righty back and forth, and this is about as perfect as it gets. I know we all love George Kirby and see him as having really explosive potential in his second year in the bigs, but the team is smart to protect his arm a little bit. Hold him back, let him ease into the season, maybe skip a start here and there. If all goes according to plan, Kirby will still get some play in the post-season, with hopefully a still-fresh arm.

I’m excited to see what we’re able to get from this unit. The Mariners will go as far as their pitching takes them, so we’re going to need these guys to stay healthy and stay dominating. That’s going to be a tough proposition – considering how healthy they all were last year. Odds are against us that they stay healthy again. But, if they do? Watch out!

The Relief Pitchers

  • Andres Munoz
  • Paul Sewald
  • Matt Brash
  • Diego Castillo
  • Matt Festa
  • Trevor Gott
  • Penn Murfee
  • Chris Flexen

It’s hard to argue with the sheer arm talent of this group. I know, relievers are volatile. But, I find it really hard to believe that all or most of these guys will take steps back. Maybe one or two, but that’s fine because we also have a lot in reserve down in the minors. There’s no shortage of impact arms in this organization, who will all cycle through at one point or another.

I am interested in what Chris Flexen brings to the table. There was talk heading into Spring Training that the Mariners might go with a 6-man rotation. Maybe I misunderstood, and they were just talking about how we had 6 viable starters on our roster. Either way, it’ll be interesting to see what his workload looks like. He didn’t play a ton after he lost his starting job last year. You would think in the early going, there will be more opportunities, as most starters aren’t in mid-season form yet. But, by the same token, you hope there aren’t more opportunities, because there’s a 50/50 chance that means we’re getting blown out. The less Flexen pitches, the more we’re using our high-leverage pitchers, which means the more we’re either winning or tied in a particular game.

The Starting Nine

  1. Kolten Wong (2B)
  2. Julio Rodriguez (CF)
  3. Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
  4. Ty France (1B)
  5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
  6. Cal Raleigh (C)
  7. Tom Murphy (DH)
  8. Jarred Kelenic (LF)
  9. J.P. Crawford (SS)

For what it’s worth, that’s my official prediction for an Opening Day lineup. I feel relatively confident about the top six; I feel least confident about Tom Murphy. But, I’ll say this, he’s got tremendous power, he’s a veteran, and with the third catcher, this really doesn’t hurt us if someone goes down mid-game. In a game that figures to be low scoring, one big swing of the bat might make all the difference, and maybe that swing comes from Murph.

The Bench/Platoon Bats

  • A.J. Pollock (OF)
  • Sam Haggerty (UTIL)
  • Cooper Hummel (C/OF)
  • Tommy La Stella (INF/DH)

These guys have probably a month to figure out who belongs and who doesn’t, before Dylan Moore (hopefully) returns from the IL. I don’t think Pollock is going anywhere, he seems pretty entrenched as a platoon partner for Kelenic. I also don’t think Haggerty is going anywhere unless he is in an absolutely miserable slump; but odds are he won’t be playing much outside of late-inning pinch runner duty. La Stella seems like the favorite to be cut, but I also wonder how much he’s even going to play in the early going? He might get a DH start here and there, but I could also see this team playing Pollock at DH along with Murph (and the other starters we opt to give some rest).

If La Stella can get off to a hot start, though, maybe we hang onto him a bit in favor of sending Hummel down to Tacoma. Doubtful, but you never know.

Top to bottom, 1-26, this is a quality roster. With, encouragingly, lots in reserve to come up and help in a pinch. I can’t wait for tomorrow night!

What Could Possibly Go Wrong For The 2023 Mariners Hitters?!

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I’m on record as saying the Mariners will be going back to the playoffs in 2023. Granted, they’re most likely not going to win the A.L. West – the Astros just have too great of a talent disparity over us – but on paper, and with the eye test, the Mariners seem like the best wild card team of the bunch. Barring a calamity of injuries, we should find ourselves back where we belong. I would also argue – again, barring injuries to our most key players – that we’re in a better position to make a deep playoff run, even if we don’t necessarily have the horses to win 100 games in the regular season.

But, we must never forget that these are the Seattle Mariners. All we know is failure. All but five of our 40-some-odd seasons of existence have ended without a post-season berth. There’s never been a World Series appearance, meaning the five best seasons have also ended in defeat. And, anecdotally, it seems like whenever our expectations are at their highest, the M’s find a way to crumple under the pressure.

I’ve been teasing this post for a little while now, but it’s time to get into it. Yes, there’s more optimism for this group of players than I can remember in the last 20 years combined. But, there’s also legitimate arguments to be made for every single one of these players to underperform. I won’t touch on the entire 40-man roster, but we’ll hit on a good portion of guys.

Julio Rodriguez – He’s already been anointed as one of the next great superstars of the game of baseball – with a contract to match – so you’d think if there was anyone safe from the Mariners curse, it’d be Julio. But, freakier shit has happened. It’s only his second year in the bigs, and he’s already had to endure ups and downs. What’s to say he doesn’t get off to another slow start, and things start to snowball?

Cal Raleigh – This one seems a little more legitimate, to me at least. He had a great year last year, but it’s extremely reliant on his power numbers. He was also worked quite a bit – particularly down the stretch – and is coming off of a thumb injury that limited him severely. We know he’s not going to be a guy who hits for average, and he’s practically a liability on the basepaths with his lack of speed. So, if the power numbers take a dive, he could be Rob Johnson-esque!

Ty France – I would call France our most reliable hitter, by a pretty significant margin. The caveat there, of course, is when he’s healthy. While he’s tough as hell, the last two seasons have seen him swoon for long stretches whenever he’s forced to gut out minor injuries (“minor” of course; I’m sure they’d be painful as hell to normal people). He’s also among the league leaders in getting hit by pitches, and isn’t afraid to make physical contact when trying to make a play in the field. So, you have to wonder how his body is going to last, or if it’ll break down prematurely. He seems like the kind of player who will shine bright for a short period of time, but will fall off a cliff when it comes time to sign a bigtime free agent contract. If he suffers a major injury and has to spend a long chunk of time on the IL, that could be disastrous for us. What might be worse is if he suffers some minor injuries early and often, and opts to play through them with negative results.

Eugenio Suarez – You can easily see the variety of possibilities for Suarez in 2023. Just look at his previous two seasons. 30 points of batting average seemingly makes all the difference in the world between him being a sub-replacement player vs. a 4-win player on a playoff team. What can go wrong with Suarez? Simple BABIP luck.

Teoscar Hernandez & Kolten Wong – This one’s also easy: neither of these guys have played the majority of their games in T-Mobile Park. Hernandez isn’t strictly a power guy, but a significant portion of his value is his ability to hit for extra bases and knock runners in. If he succumbs to the marine layer, it’s going to be a long and brutal season (see: Jesse Winker). Since Wong isn’t really a power guy, you’d think he might be a safer fit, but we’ve seen plenty of slap hitters falter in Seattle (see: Adam Frazier, Chone Figgins, etc.). He’s also 32 years old and on the tail-end of his Major League career.

J.P. Crawford – His on-base ability is pretty well established at this point, and his defense is very solid. But, there’s never been much power to speak of, and we seem to be banking a lot of his future success on changes to his swing from this past offseason. He certainly needed to switch things up, after a prolonged slump in the second half of 2022; getting his bat through the zone quicker will be a must. But, what if it doesn’t take? What if he reverts to old habits? We might be regretting not going after a high-priced short stop replacement, if that’s the case.

Jarred Kelenic & A.J. Pollock – I’ve already talked about these guys enough. Kelenic has yet to do anything for an extended period of the regular season. And Pollock seems like he’s Just A Guy. It would be a HUGE upset victory if both of these guys pan out; we’re just hoping for a little competence out of one of them.

Dylan Moore & Sam Haggerty – The great utility duo. I think they’re both coming off of injuries, which isn’t super encouraging. Moore is also slated to have a pretty major role on this team, since we don’t actually have a DH. There’s little-to-no power to speak of, so if their batting averages struggle, they’re going to be a huge liability.

Tom Murphy – I can’t even remember the last time he was healthy for a full season. Maybe never? I also don’t know what we have in reserve, but it doesn’t seem pretty. The worst-case scenario is Cal Raleigh turning back into a pumpkin, Tom Murphy getting hurt, and having to slog through with Cooper Hummel.

The Mariners Need Teoscar Hernandez To Be Great

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Writing about an individual before the season has even started is the ultimate kiss of death for the weak-willed motherfucker.

If you wanted to put the 2022 Mariners in a nutshell, you’d say that they got to where they were because of their pitching, but ultimately failed to go any further because of their hitting. A 1-0 loss in 18 innings to end our playoff run isn’t a perfect microcosm of that team, but it’ll get the job done.

After this most recent offseason, I think it’s safe to say the 2023 Mariners will go as far as their pitching will take them, and ultimately fail to go any further because of their hitting. That’s not a reason for dismay, necessarily, because an argument can be made that their pitching is set to be even better this year, while there’s always a chance for the hitting to also be improved.

To put it politely, there’s a lot of room for variance among the bottom third of the lineup. But, I think we’re all banking on the upper two-thirds to be as advertised. Julio Rodriguez is going to play like a superstar. Ty France is going to be steady while he’s healthy, and he’s going to slowly break down over the course of the season as he leads the league in being hit by pitches. Eugenio Suarez is going to lead the team in homers and strikeouts. Cal Raleigh is going to be one of the most valuable catchers in the game. And Kolten Wong is going to bring veteran at-bats to every game he plays in. Even if the bottom third stinks, it’s going to give us occasional bouts of competence (at the very least), and when you wrap it all up, that should make the Mariners – with the pitching we’ve accumulated – playoff participants for the second year in a row.

There’s a real wild card here who could make all the difference. For once, I’m not talking about the impending breakout season of Jarred Kelenic. No, this time I’m talking about our lone major hitting addition this past offseason: Teoscar Hernandez.

Last year, we were saddled with far too many games featuring a massively-underperforming Jesse Winker, and a wildly-disappointing Abraham Toro, with precious too-few games from Mitch Haniger. That’s just a lot of turmoil for an outfield (Toro obviously played a lot of second base as well, but he was also a utility outfielder at times), which we had hoped was going to be one of our biggest strengths. Hernandez will hopefully stabilize things a little bit.

He’s a two-time Silver Slugger who’s averaged over 20 homers in every non-COVID season the last five years. Easily his best season came in 2021 when he hit a career high 32 homers, while slashing .296/.346/.524. That’s the ceiling. At least, for now.

He’s also in his age 30 season, heading into the final year of his contract. He just lost an Arbitration case with the Mariners, meaning he’s only getting $14 million instead of the $16 million that he wanted. With the way free agents are racking up the dough with these contracts nowadays, he’s in line for a massive payday after this season. So, he has all the motivation in the world to overcome the marine layer in Seattle and play his absolute best ball of his life.

And, frankly, the Mariners need it.

Our margin for error is razor thin, when it comes to competing with the Astros for the division. We need everything to break right, up to and including Teoscar and/or Julio playing like the MVP of the American League. But, given how injury luck can strike, along with the natural variance of the game of baseball, it also wouldn’t shock me if the Mariners weren’t quite locks to even make a wild card spot. Getting the most out of Hernandez would go a long way toward ensuring we don’t come up a game or two short at the end.

The worst case scenario for all involved is for Hernandez to hit the IL for a significant portion of the season. That’s going to – depending on the injury – drastically reduce his value in free agency, while at the same time severely hamper our ability to compete this season.

The best case scenario for all involved is for Hernandez to jack 40+ homers, hit around .280, and knock in 90+ RBI, followed by some other team overpaying for his services next offseason (or, if the Mariners do sign him to an extension, then he turns into a young Nelson Cruz in his prime).

With Teoscar in that group of guys at the top of the lineup, crushing the ball like he’s never crushed it before, we could really do some damage this year! There’s nothing more fearsome than a talented player in contract year. If you can factor that in with more DH days for Ty (to rest his body), with more familiarity by Suarez when it comes to facing A.L. pitching, and with a skyrocketing career trajectory by Julio, there’s no telling how far this team can go. It’s not necessarily about winning the division (though, that would be most delightful), it’s about getting hot come playoff time and riding our pitching to a World Series championship.

In Defense Of Tanking In Sports

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Other than Cheating, I would say the concept of Tanking is the biggest taboo in sports. There’s certainly no honor in either, though unlike tanking, there’s a variety of definitions when it comes to cheating. If you hold someone in football and get away with it, technically you’ve just cheated. But, no one is going to walk up to the ref and ask to have a flag thrown on them. And, other than the guy being held – and the fans of that player’s team – no one is going to complain about it either. However, set up an elaborate video camera and trashcan banging system in baseball to steal signals from your opponent while alerting your own hitters, and you’re rightly vilified as the fucking scumbag Astros that you are (Astros being synonymous with Cheaters, naturally).

I see a gray area when it comes to tanking, though. My worst nightmare is being a fan of a team that constantly finishes in the middle. Good enough to really squint and see some hope, but ultimately never a championship contender, yet never so abysmal as to get a top draft pick the following year. I get to say that because I’ve always been a fan of Seattle teams. If I were a fan of the Lions or Pirates or whoever continuously stinks in the NBA (I would’ve said the Kings, but from what I understand, they’re actually sorta okay this year), I’m sure I’d be reading this right now totally outraged. I get it. It can ALWAYS be worse.

Because, here’s the thing: tanking in the wrong hands gets you absolutely nowhere. Until this year, you could point to the Jacksonville Jaguars as a prime example. Even with their number one quarterback – and slew of other high draft picks all around that roster – shoddy coaching choices continued to hold them back (until they finally lucked into hiring Doug Pederson).

And the biggest problem with baseball is that Tanking has become a way of life for some of these small market teams. The Rays and A’s have figured out a sort of cheat code in their development and shrewd scouting of other teams’ prospects (who they acquire in trades for their own successful superstars who figure to be too expensive to retain), but by and large the lowest payroll teams need to get unsustainably lucky with their own prospects hitting at the same time, while taking advantage of signing under-the-radar free agents for pennies on the dollar (see the Kansas City Royals of 2014-2015, which was an oasis in a VAST deserted wasteland of seasons before and since). Tanking can provide a sense of hope, but if all you do is tank every single year, all hope is lost.

It’s especially galling in baseball because there’s so much money to be had. Yet, teams long ago discovered that you don’t really need to put in much effort on payroll to turn a profit year over year. You’ll get yours, and whatever you don’t earn, you’ll be handed thanks to a revenue-sharing system that seems quite antithetical to the American way of life. On top of that, every year that goes by, your franchise is worth more and more money. It’s the only certainty in life; not even death & taxes have it on the valuation of professional franchises in the top North American sports.

So, I understand why many people have no patience for baseball teams who tank. Or, really, any team, be it football, basketball, hockey, soccer, whathaveyou. We’re talking about billionaire owners, who’ve decided to be fucking cheapskates. Even though they do pretty well for themselves for all the limitations they’ve placed on themselves, I have zero respect for the Athletics, because all they do is hold the city of Oakland hostage in an attempt to get taxpayers to pay for a new stadium they could EASILY afford. And, if for whatever reason they can’t afford it, then they need to sell the fucking team to an owner (or a group or owners) who will actually try. Imagine what the A’s or Rays could do – with their talent evaluators and coaching throughout all levels of the organization – if they actually spent money.

But, if we take those teams out of the equation – those teams who prioritize winning below anything and everything else – I think tanking can be a good and healthy refresher for an organization. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not so naive as to think any team prioritizes winning above all else; these are billionaires, they’re always going to be about the money first. But, there are self-respecting owners who also want to put a good product on the field. Who want to play in a stadium they can be proud of. Who ideally DON’T want to completely alienate their fanbase. I’ll be honest, I don’t understand how A’s fans do it year-in and year-out. That organization would drive me absolutely bonkers, and make no mistake, they’ve been SIGNIFICANTLY more successful than the Mariners in my lifetime.

Getting back to my original point, though, sometimes teams get bogged down. They develop a plan and see it through and for one reason or another, the plan fails. It happens. You saddle yourself with bad contracts, old players, and you know you’re never going to get anywhere trying to fit that square peg in a round hole. See: the Mariners from 2014-2018. They had … some semblance of a plan, and they came close to making the playoffs, but for one reason or another, they just couldn’t put it all together. And they definitely weren’t going to vie for a World Series; at best, that group of veterans might’ve snuck in as a Wild Card, but likely no better. So, they tore it all down, acquired some prospects, rededicated themselves to a pitching-centric draft strategy, and now here we are. We made the ALDS in 2022, we have an elite superstar in Julio Rodriguez, we have a bona fide ace pitcher (with lots of quality arms below him), and we appear to be poised for a run of playoff appearances. While there are no guarantees in life, if everything breaks right, the Mariners have as good a chance as anyone to play for a World Series title as soon as this year. You can only say that about so many teams, even this early into Spring Training. I know we’re all 0-0 right now, but in reality, there’s always the Haves and Have Nots. The Mariners are in the Haves group, which is a rare and wonderful thing. And it never would’ve happened without a little tanking spree.

That having been said, obviously you don’t HAVE to tank to turn your fortunes around. But there’s a psychological component that’s beneficial to your fanbase. As I said up top, it can be frustrating to be mired in the middle. All too often, fans lose faith in their teams. They believe the organization has lost the thread. That they have no plan, and instead are just spinning their wheels. And, to all of our detriment, those organizations can get panicky. They see the writing on the wall – that a coach or a GM is on the hot seat – and make poor deals to try to jumpstart a turnaround. How many times have the Seahawks blundered in recent years, compounding mistakes by making even dumber moves? Until they finally did what had to be done and traded Russell Wilson. That immediately put us in a position to kick off a rebuild, even as we improbably succeeded with Wilson’s erstwhile backup. My lack of faith in that backup has no bearing on reality, where we’re one great draft away from potentially building a championship contender.

Which leads us down another tangent. Sometimes, when you have smart people running your organization, what looks like a tanking season turns out to be something much more special. Like the 2022 Seahawks. In those cases, you thank your lucky stars you’ve got people in charge who know more than everyone else.

For all the teams who don’t win a championship – all teams but one, every single season – keeping hope alive is the name of the game. For those teams not already in an open championship window, tanking is a vital tool. It shouldn’t be your everything, but in small doses – with a quality plan in place to see it through to the end – it can mean the world.

In that respect, I’ll always be in favor of tanking. Young, hotshot draft prospects are always going to be more exciting than over-the-hill, overpaid former all stars. Building from the ground up – and succeeding with your own homegrown guys – is the most satisfying experience for a sports fan. Oh sure, I’ll take a championship any way I can get it. But, it’s not about AH championship. It’s about many years of championship contention. It’s being the next dynasty. It’s winning now and forever until the end of time. And when the end comes, blowing it up and starting all over with a new crop of high draft picks!

The Bottom Third Of The Mariners’ Lineup Looks Absolutely Atrocious

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At some point, I’m going to hop on here and talk about all the ways this thing can fall apart for the Mariners. There’s a number of hitters who could easily take steps back for one reason or another, our starting pitching was unsustainably healthy last year, and our bullpen has been remarkably fortunate and could fall apart for no good reason whatsoever outside of sheer randomness.

Today’s not going to be that day. See, a lot of that is just me being overly worried. We finally broke back into the playoffs, and now it feels like we’re due for a setback. Expectations are through the roof, which is always when the Mariners let us down the most. You can set your watch to it. On paper, most experts agree this is a team that should once again contend for a wild card spot. So, you really have to dig deep to magnify the flaws on this roster to the point where we fall on our faces.

That being said, I don’t think it takes very much digging whatsoever to point out that the bottom three hitters projected to play regularly heading into April are going to drag this team down with them.

If we choose to look on the bright side, there should be six quality hitters in this lineup (eventually, I’ll write a separate post talking about all the flaws among everyone). You have to figure Julio and Raleigh are excellent young players; Ty France is solid when healthy; Suarez has his power and should benefit from less shifting; Teoscar Hernandez is an already-good player who figures to be hyper-motivated as he’s heading into his first stint with free agency; and Wong is a veteran bat who should be fine as long as he’s healthy.

Just because those are the six hitters I think will be the ones we don’t have to worry about, doesn’t mean I’m right. Any one of those guys could easily suck. Conversely, among the batters I’m about to trash, I think the odds are just as good that one of them surprises us in a positive way. But, for the sake of this post, I think the top six in our lineup is going to be fine, and it’s going to look something like this:

  1. Julio – CF (R)
  2. Wong – 2B (L)
  3. Hernandez – RF (R)
  4. France – 1B (R)
  5. Suarez – 3B (R)
  6. Raleigh – C (S)

Our three weakest spots in the lineup are going to be Short Stop, Left Field, and DH.

We kinda know what we’re going to get with J.P. Crawford at this point. He’s going to get on base a little over 1/3 of the time. That’s fine. He was one of the least shifted-against Mariners the last couple years, so I don’t think he’s going to get much of a boost from the rules changes. He’s streaky. With very little power. So, when his BABIP is good, his slash line will look good. When the balls he hits find gloves, he’s going to look like one of the worst hitters in the league. The only hope for him is that all his offseason work with Driveline has improved his approach at the plate. His elongated swing tends to get exposed by superior pitching, and if that hasn’t been corrected in any sort of meaningful way, it’s only going to lead to more strikeouts and weak contact. At least we don’t need him at the top of the order anymore. Getting to hide him down towards the bottom will take some pressure off, while at the same time give us some speed – if and when he does get on base – for our superior hitters at the top of the lineup.

The left field spot is well-worn territory at this point, but it bears repeating, since we’re banking a big chunk of our season’s hopes on the combination of A.J. Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. What needs to be said about Kelenic that hasn’t already been said? He’s young, and so far he’s been a terrible hitter. He could, obviously, blossom this year with reduced expectations, a spot at the bottom of the order, and the elimination of the shift that has so gobbled up many of his would-be hits. But, the Pollock piece of this remains under-complained about. He was abysmal last year! People have brushed that aside by saying he’s going to play primarily against lefties, but as I’ve said before, lefties only comprise about a quarter of the pitchers in baseball. He’s still going to get his share of at bats against righties, especially if Kelenic struggles (which, odds are he will). Not only that, but given how our bench is shaping up, we could see Pollock and Kelenic in the same lineup (with Pollock being a DH).

Let’s not beat around the bush here, though, because the DH has been a disaster for this team … pretty much since Edgar retired. I’ve already talked about how Dylan Moore is going to factor heavily into this team (cemented by the fact that he just signed a guaranteed contract to buy out his Arb years). Moore probably won’t DH a ton, but he’ll play in the field for guys getting rest days as the DH, so that makes him our de facto DH. I would also wager that Tom Murphy and/or Cal Raleigh will get their share of DH stints (when the other is starting at catcher), to infuse some additional power on occasion. We’ll see what Murphy has left in the tank after a few injury-plagued seasons. Then, there’s Haggerty, who was a fun story last year, but is coming off of an injury that happened towards the very end of our season. He’s also no guarantee to be effective the more the rest of the league gets a book on him. And, as I just wrote about, I don’t know who our 13th position player will be, but Tommy La Stella looks like the odds-on favorite, and he’s fucking garbage.

I don’t want to say that the season hinges on Jarred Kelenic starting to reach his full potential, but that could make all of our lives A LOT easier. There’s a massive black hole in the bottom third of our lineup that figures to be filled with – at best – Replacement Level hitters. But, if Kelenic were to pan out (which, officially I no longer believe will be the case), that could really take our team to new heights. All of a sudden, you’ve got seven quality bats in the lineup, with adequate production out of Crawford, and whatever you get from the DH slot from Moore, Murphy, et al. A competent Kelenic hitting somewhere around .250, hitting 20+ homers, could be all the difference between this team winning 86 games and 96 games. I know the math doesn’t work out from a WAR perspective, but not totally blowing it every time we get to the bottom of the order has a cumulative effect that – if everything else pans out the way we think it should – would make us quite formidable. You get no innings off with a lineup like that. Combined with our elite pitching, it could very well put us in line to compete for the division.

However, if Kelenic continues to let us down, and the rest of these guys can’t get out of their own way, it’s going to take everything we have just to remain in contention through the trade deadline. Where I’m assuming we’re going to need an impact bat, if we want to get back to the playoffs.

It’s just too bad we didn’t get that bat heading into the season, when all of this was blatantly obvious to anyone with eyes.

Who Will Be The Mariners’ 13th Man?

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Are rosters still comprised of 26 players in Major League Baseball? Or are they cutting it back down to 25? I can’t really keep track of all these little details anymore. But, I do know there’s a limit on the number of pitchers you can carry, and that you have to have 13 position players at a minimum. Seems a LITTLE idiotic, but there’s so much to complain about when it comes to the rules of baseball, I’m not going to get bent out of shape about teams having an extra bench spot here and there.

As has been reported of late, the Mariners are pretty well set for the majority of their position player spots, becoming even more certain based on Taylor Trammell’s recent hamate bone injury that’s going to keep him out the entirety of Spring Training. He will almost certainly start the regular season down in Tacoma, giving the M’s one less guy to compete for that final active roster spot.

Catchers: Cal Raleigh, Tom Murphy.

Infield: Eugenio Suarez, J.P. Crawford, Kolten Wong, Ty France.

Outfield: Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, A.J. Pollock.

Platoon/Backups: Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty.

There’s 12 guys right there, pretty well set. Kelenic still has an option, so if he completely shits the bed in Spring Training, maybe he starts out in Tacoma, but I think that’s a very remote possibility. That leaves one other spot, and by my calculations only three realistic guys – currently on our 40-man – to compete for it.

Moore can play every spot on the infield AND the outfield. Haggerty can backup anywhere in the outfield and – in a pinch – can go in there at first, second, or third base. So, you can go into this 13th roster spot taking the Best Player Available, in a sense. You don’t need to worry about filling a specific hole. The outfield defense is well covered, and the infield defense is covered enough to at least get you through an emergency situation (if you were to lose two or more guys).

The three guys remaining are Tommy La Stella, Cade Marlowe, and Evan White.

The simplest and easiest answer to this question is Tommy La Stella. He’s a veteran who has experience all around the infield (save short stop) and is currently listed as a designated hitter. He’s a 34 year old veteran who has the feel of a Replacement Level hitter (if all goes well) from the left side of the plate. He’s not much of a power guy, though, so you’re bringing him in for a veteran presence and his eye at the plate. Combine that with the fact that the Mariners have options for both White and Marlowe, it’s kind of a no brainer. Let them both play every day in Tacoma, get their reps up, and call them back to Seattle if/when a need arises. It’s baseball, there are 162 games, there will eventually be a need, if not sooner, then later.

But, that’s not what anybody wants. La Stella feels like camp fodder. He’s earning $720K, which is all guaranteed, but also isn’t very much money in baseball terms. I would assume the Mariners want someone else to take this spot, but given the inherent roster flexibility with the two younger players, they’re really going to have to blow the team away this spring.

Marlowe is an interesting case, because with Trammell out, he’s the de facto “competition” for Kelenic in that platoon spot in left field. Marlowe has rocketed up the minor leagues over the last two years – playing most of 2022 in AA before getting called up to AAA for 13 games – and there’s certainly a believable scenario where he beats out Kelenic in the platoon battle, given his incredible speed, base-stealing ability (he swiped 42 bags between the two minor league levels last year), and on-base ability. At that point, it would be a battle between Kelenic and La Stella for the final bench spot, and maybe Kelenic beats him out (or maybe the team wants to preserve Kelenic’s final option year, just in case).

My hunch is, the least likely person to win the final roster spot out of Spring Training is Evan White. He’s just been too banged up the last couple years, and I have to imagine the team wants him down in Tacoma playing every day (and maybe getting cross-trained at multiple positions, to increase his value to the team). That being said, assuming White is fully healthy and stays that way, I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets called up. Even if it’s not as an injury replacement, I think his bat will be desperately needed once the month of May rolls around.

That’s all I’m giving La Stella. I imagine we’ll give him every opportunity to win the final spot in Spring Training. I imagine he’ll get regular at bats as our primary DH (when we’re not rotating quasi-rest days for the other starters), and I think it’s all but guaranteed that he’s totally washed as a Major League player. After a month or so, the team will opt to move on, and if all goes according to plan, Evan White will be the first player called up to take his place. That’ll allow him and Ty France to bounce back and forth – giving France the regular DH days he needs to stay fresh throughout the year – and hopefully provide some additional pop in a lineup that could surely use it.

It’ll also be interesting to see if White gets some work in left field. I only have a tiny bit more confidence in A.J. Pollock’s abilities to succeed in a Mariners uniform, so it would be VERY interesting to me if we one day see an Evan White/Jarred Kelenic platoon in left. Two highly-regarded former prospects giving it a go to try to salvage their careers here (one who signed the early extension to buy out his Arbitration years, the other who spurned such an offer, probably costing himself untold millions of dollars in the process).

Can The Mariners Overtake The Astros In 2023?

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As we get closer to the start of Spring Training – which commences in a couple weeks – it’s looking less and less likely that the Mariners will make a big, impactful move to improve this year’s team. Although, to be fair, the Winker/Suarez deal came down in mid-March last year, so it’s not impossible for something huge to come down the pike. Nevertheless, we can only render judgments on things as we know them today.

And today, we have a team that added Teoscar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, Trevor Gott, and A.J. Pollock; they lost Mitch Haniger (Giants), Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks), Jesse Winker (Brewers), Abraham Toro (Brewers), Adam Frazier (Orioles), Carlos Santana (Pirates), and Erik Swanson (Blue Jays), among others. Feels like a wash to me. We’re REALLY banking a lot of our hopes and dreams on Hernandez and Wong coming to Seattle and continuing their relatively high-quality play. I get why we made these moves – Haniger is an injury waiting to happen, Winker and Toro were busts here, Frazier and Santana might be over the hill – but I can see a world where Winker bounces back when fully healthy, and where Haniger manages to keep his body right and not succumb to some more atrocious injury luck.

The justification for not spending a lot in free agency, or taking a lot of money on in trades, is due to our extending Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo in the middle of last year. Somehow, those two get lumped into our Hot Stove tally sheet by the Mariners, mostly to play down the complaints that the M’s are fucking tightwads, but that’s neither here nor there. They are who they are.

I’m not as up in arms as a lot of fans are. For the most part, I think the Mariners are building the right way. I’m already on record as saying I hate these big-money deals for outside free agents (the Robinson Cano conundrum). And I understand the farm system took a hit in the rankings – thanks to guys graduating to the Majors, and other guys getting traded away in the Castillo deal – so there’s not a ton of value left to jettison. It’s smart to not completely gut our minors just to bring in one more guy, especially if we’re not necessarily One More Guy away from winning a World Series. What I take issue with is the fact that there were mid-tier free agents out there who we could’ve signed to mid-level free agent deals – knowing we needed at least one more outfielder, as well as someone to rotate at DH – and we opted for A.J. Pollock. I think that’s going to burn us; I hope I’m wrong.

At some point, we have to move forward with the team we’ve been given. Which brings us to the question at hand: can the Mariners overtake the Astros in 2023?

This question assumes, of course, that the Mariners and Astros are the two best teams in the A.L. West, and by “overtaking the Astros”, it means the Mariners will win the division. For the sake of argument, then, let’s just further assume there’s no huge surprise team among the Angels, Rangers, or Athletics (who I would expect to finish in that order at the bottom of the division, though there’s always the chance the Rangers make a leap).

I’ll start with this: I haven’t kept great tabs on the Astros’ wheelings and dealings this offseason. I’m just taking it for granted they’re going to be at least as good as they were in 2022. Meaning: they’re probably good enough to win over 100 games. Last year, the Astros won 106 games, and were 16 games better than the Mariners. So, that’s the gap I’m talking about. Can we make up 16 games on them?

Well, for one thing, since we only play them 13 times – down from the usual 19 – there are fewer opportunities to gain ground in head-to-head play. But, as we’ve seen pretty much since the Astros joined the American League, that actually means there are fewer opportunities for them to beat our brains in. In my mind, that can only be a good thing for the M’s.

There are two, MAYBE three major things that I’m pointing to as reasons for optimism. The big two being: Luis Castillo and Julio Rodriguez. As much as I loathe including them as part of our overall spending this offseason, I do think there’s a legitimate argument to be made in favor of the Mariners picking up some wins in 2023.

Recall we traded for Castillo on July 30th last year; this year, we get him for the full season! (I should point out that this post also has to assume that everyone I write about stays healthy all year, or at least the vast majority of the games, for all teams involved; of course, the M’s could overtake the Astros if their top five guys all go down with ACL tears). Castillo was a 1 WAR player for the Mariners over the final two months; he counted 3.1 WAR for the Reds. What difference will he make at the top of our rotation every 5-6 days (depending how deep of a rotation we opt to go with to start out) for a full six months? I think that’s pretty significant.

Also recall that Julio Rodriguez was effectively worthless in the month of April last year, as he was getting his footing at the Major League level. Now he’s an All Star who should play at a very high level from Day 1. Having that experience last year can only boost him that much more in year two (let’s hope there’s no Sophomore Slump!). You can also say something similar about Cal Raleigh; he was officially demoted to Tacoma for a short spell before injury thrust him back to Seattle, where he FINALLY turned it around. I’m a little more concerned about his effectiveness this year; he’s still pretty boom or bust at the plate. But, let’s just say he SHOULD be as good as he was in the second half last year, and if we get that for a full season, it’ll be a nice lift for this offense in the months of April and May.

Finally, as a little bonus, I’ll just quickly add that the training wheels are officially off of Logan Gilbert, and the experience he’s had through two seasons will hopefully propel him towards one of those upper rotation slots. If he’s not a second ace on this team, I would expect him to be at least an effective #2. His career trajectory to date has been remarkable, and there’s still room for him to get better. We’re just getting into George Kirby’s second season, where it’s expected the training wheels are very much still on (considering he pitched a lot more as a rookie than the team expected going into last year). But, his ceiling looks to be even higher than Gilbert’s, so as long as these guys don’t have any major setbacks, you’re talking about one of the best rotations in all of baseball, starting on Day 1.

Is that enough? The bullpen will have to continue being lights out. The offense will have to continue being timely with their hitting and cluster luck. If everything goes according to plan, and we don’t run into a bunch of guys having career-worst seasons, I think there’s an okay chance. Maybe a 66.67% chance the Astros win the division, with a 33.33% chance the Mariners prevail. That’s not amazing, but considering it’s usually a 99.99% chance the Astros dominate, I’ll take it.

Why Jarred Kelenic Being Penciled In As A Starter Is Potentially A Good Thing

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We as fans like to think we know everything. We’re entitled pricks! It’s fine; we pay their fucking salaries, the least they can do is put up with our bullshit.

Anyway, sometimes it’s good to take a step back and acknowledge that teams generally know more than we do. Or, at the very least, they HAVE knowledge that we don’t. At the beginning of the year, the Seahawks started multiple rookie cornerbacks over veterans who had looked pretty good the previous season. We thought they were crazy, but lo and behold, Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant had pretty solid-to-elite rookie years!

The Mariners know good and well where they are set and where they struggled a year ago. They know what their holes are. At this point in the offseason, they’ve swapped out Teoscar Hernandez for Mitch Haniger in right field. They shed Jesse Winker from left and gave Kyle Lewis a fresh start with another organization who can better afford to keep him on their 40-man. What they didn’t do is … ANYTHING to fill the void in left field, to say nothing of what’s going to happen with the DH spot. We’ve got Dylan Moore, we’ve got Sam Haggerty, and we brought in a right-handed platoon bat in A.J. Pollock for the 25% of the time we face left-handed starters.

Meaning that unless another big deal is coming down the pike in the next month, we’re looking at a healthy dose of Jarred Kelenic.

I find that very intriguing. I just got done telling you how the Mariners know good and well where they struggled a year ago, and one of the most prominent struggle spots was, indeed, Kelenic. So, why would a team that just broke through into the playoffs for the first time in two decades – a team with even higher expectations for 2023 – go into a season essentially guaranteeing a guy like Kelenic the opportunity to start in left? Make no mistake, Moore and Haggerty are insurance policies. But, Kelenic will be given every opportunity to succeed, because he has the highest upside of anyone on this team not named Julio Rodriguez.

On the one hand, this move could blow up in their faces. Kelenic could start this season like he’s started every season in the bigs, sucking HARD at the plate. He could go up and down to and from Tacoma a few times. He could play himself right out of the organization with his value the lowest it’s ever been.

But, I don’t think they believe that’s what’s going to happen. Granted, what organization in its right mind would start a guy they expect to fail? He would have to make significant strides in his development to be the kind of player we need in left. We’ve had ample opportunities to address this void, both in trades and free agents. We have enough prospects to make that spot at least league average; there were deals that could’ve been made. Instead, the Mariners seem content to roll with Kelenic. And that in and of itself gives me hope.

If it backfires, I guess there’s still the trade deadline. But, that’s a pretty huge blunder. So, let’s hope what they’re saying is on point: Kelenic is still VERY young, and there’s plenty of time for him to reach his full potential.

I’m Over The Huge Mega-Deal In Free Agency For The Mariners

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Being a fan of the Mariners from 2005-2018 is the baseball fan equivalent of being a Vietnam War veteran. I’m still having flashbacks. There are any number of terrible free agent signings both within that period and outside of that period (for the purposes of this post, when I talk about free agents, I’m talking exclusively about the outside free agents we’ve signed to come to Seattle, not the guys who were Mariners that we then re-signed once they hit free agency), but from 2005-2018, I think the four biggest marquee free agent signings we all know and love are Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, Robinson Cano, and Nelson Cruz.

Cruz, admittedly, is an absolute success story, the likes of which is rare and beautiful. On the opposite end of the spectrum, hearing the name Richie Sexson again makes me want to shut my eyes and never look at the Seattle Mariners ever again. When in reality, it was more of a mixed bag, with his power numbers holding up for two seasons, before he fell off a cliff.

Beltre, I feel like, gets more kudos than … whatever the opposite of kudos are, because his defense was elite, because he was best friends with King Felix, and because he settled into a role that was fairly reliable. However, he came here off of a 2004 season with the Dodgers where he finished 2nd in MVP voting. We came into it expecting 48 homers per year, and got far FAR less. As for Cano, I think we all had fair expectations for what that was. 10 years, $24 million per year. We expected about half of those years to be good, and half of those years to be in severe overpaid decline. And that’s pretty much what we got (with the silver lining that maybe we got a good trade out of the whole thing, depending on what Kelenic ends up turning into). But, regardless, it sucks that you’re investing in someone for a decade, knowing full well that half of those years will be miserable failures (only able to get out from under it by taking advantage of a know-nothing GM).

The point of my bringing those players up in this context is the fact that paying huge sums in free agency doesn’t come with a great success rate. You can say that about trades, you can say that about drafts, you can say that about lower-priced free agents. But, obviously, the cost is far less for everything else. But, when you make a huge splash in free agency, the expectation is that those players will not only come in and make an immediate impact, but they’ll be the cornerstones of your franchise. They’ll put you over the top. If you were a losing organization, they’ll turn you into playoff contenders; if you were already playoff contenders, then they’ll turn you into championship contenders.

Every year in the baseball offseason, the biggest storylines revolve around the Hot Stove. Those elite players who’ve hit free agency are the most talked-about. And, teams like the Mariners – who have relatively low payrolls, who are also coming off of a playoff run – are often expected to be big players in those sweepstakes. And the fans ALWAYS get mad when the Mariners opt to sit out the top tiers of free agency.

It doesn’t make sense, for a variety of reasons. For starters, if you just look at the history of the Seattle Mariners, they don’t make huge splashes in free agency in these situations. If you think about the four players I discussed above, those were all situations where we were trying to bail out a sinking ship. We were never in a position to bolster a team from good to great in that period. The last time the Mariners were great, they largely built up the roster in response to losing other major stars (Randy, Griffey, A-Rod), going with less-heralded all stars over those supernovas.

The other big reason why free agency doesn’t make sense is that it really ties you down to one or two major decisions. The reason why building from within is preferred over the alternative is because you have more information. You’re extending guys who have already had success here. For a team playing half its games in Seattle, that means everything. We see over and over again players come here and struggle, with the ballpark, the climate, the distance away from their offseason homes, whathaveyou. It doesn’t matter if they’re power hitters, line drive hitters, or speedy bloop hitters. So, literally anyone you bring here is a coin flip at best; why would you want to tie yourself down for 5-10 years on someone if you don’t even know if they can succeed here? If you trade for someone and they stink, you can get out of it in a year or two without major financial repercussions. Free agents have their money fully guaranteed.

I would also argue – even with the very best players – there’s a reason why they reached free agency. Aaron Judge was your 2022 American League MVP. He broke the A.L. record for home runs. He’s one of the top three most popular players in all of baseball. The Yankees have all the money and revenue in the world. If they REALLY wanted to avoid all this, if they REALLY wanted him to stick around long term, they would’ve already worked out an extension. As we saw with Julio Rodriguez, as the Angels did with Mike Trout, as countless other teams have done with their super-duper-stars, when you want someone to stick around, you figure out how to get it done before they hit free agency.

I’d be curious to know the success rate of players who sign the top 5-10 free agent contracts every year. How often are those players just as good or better than they were prior to signing? And how long before they decline? How often do those players decline right away, or within a season or two? I remember lots of horror stories from the first half of 2022, when the bulk of the uber-free agents were all struggling with their new teams. There’s a chance Aaron Judge signs a contract somewhere else and is just as good as he was with the Yankees. But, there’s a much BETTER chance he signs somewhere and is worse. But that team is stuck paying him an insane amount of money, and guaranteeing him a spot in their everyday lineup, which is the ultimate double whammy.

I don’t need that. Honestly, I don’t need that ever again. I’d rather the Mariners pay their home-grown guys. I’d rather we trade for players nearing the end of their initial contract, who are incentivized to play hard to try to earn more money. I like the way this team has been built. I don’t want them to suddenly change course and start chasing the huge names, only to have those players struggle and waste all of our time.

Frankly, I’m glad that’s the plan. It’s hard enough to get everything right with your own guys. Evan White’s contract looks like a mini-disaster at the moment. J.P. Crawford seems to have more value as a team leader and chemistry guy than he does with his bat. So, I don’t understand how we EVER get things right with outside free agency. That just seems like the crapshoot to end all crapshoots.

Julio Rodriguez Won Rookie Of The Year; Scott Servais Didn’t Win Manager Of The Year

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2022 will go down as one of the greatest years of all time to be a Mariners fan. Which speaks to the utter travesty of this franchise that we got swept by the fucking Astros in the ALDS, and it’s still one of the greatest seasons in our history.

Anyway, blowing past that, 2022 was super fun, and we’re hoping the start of something major. As we head into steamy, Hot Stove action, it’s also time to give out some awards.

In the least-surprising news ever, Julio Rodriguez was named the American League’s Rookie of the Year. I’ll be honest, I wasn’t following the race all that closely, but this is really one of those No Brainer situations. As one of the 2022 outfield Silver Sluggers, he hit 28 homers, 25 doubles, and swiped 25 bags, while hitting .284/.345/.509. He’s a superstar. He’d never even whiffed the Major Leagues before this year, and now he’s under contract for the next decade-plus, making hundreds of millions of dollars. He’s the greatest player we’ve had since A-Rod in 1996 (the rightful MVP, who had it ripped away because Juan Gonzalez was a thing).

What’s super cool is that the Mariners – by Julio winning this – get to receive a free draft pick at the end of the first round. It’s a means of rewarding teams who refrain from monkeying around with service time (if that’s even a thing anymore). How cool is that?! We have the best rookie in baseball AND we get a high draft pick next year to throw onto the pile? Outstanding!

What’s the opposite of outstanding (in-sitting?) is the fact that Scott Servais was 100% snubbed from Manager of the Year. Not only did he not win, but he came in THIRD! What in the actual living fuck?

I try not to get all worked up about sports awards – or ANY awards – because it’s all subjective and it’s all pointless. What effect does Servais not winning have on my life? None. No effect.

That being said, what more does a guy have to do?! This is two years in a row now where he’s taken a team with questionable all-around talent – and clear deficiencies in major areas – and exceeded expectations by a wide margin, leading us to back-to-back 90-win seasons. I don’t know which year is more impressive, to be honest! In 2021, we were unquestionably less-talented, so to get to 90 wins felt like a miracle of modern managing. He was making all the right moves and pushing all the right buttons. I’m willing to admit that giving a guy Manager of the Year when that team fails to make the post-season is a bit of a stretch, but a strong argument could be made that he was even more deserving of the award for that 2021 season.

So, if anything, 2022 was the make-up opportunity! Not only did he exceed expectations once again, but we pushed through as the 2nd wild card team, making it to the ALDS in dramatic fashion. With this offense? That’s something special!

I get that he’d be neck-and-neck with the Cleveland manager (who ultimately took the prize), but what’s extremely obnoxious is the fact that Servais landed behind the Baltimore guy. Baltimore, mind you, did NOT make the playoffs. It’s hard not to scream East Coast Bias, but it’s been that way since the dawn of time, so what are you gonna do?

I guess, as always, Servais is just going to have to blow his competition away. If getting to 90 wins with mediocre hitters isn’t enough to float your boat, maybe winning 100+ and making a deep run in the playoffs will do the trick! Let’s see if we can get there in 2023.