Tag Archives: Justin Herbert

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2023: A D-Lightful Week 1 Victory

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In my dynasty league – which I write about here almost exclusively – I was given a D draft grade, and my Draft Day Projections were for a 5-9 record and a 7th place finish (the top 6 go to the playoffs). In my other two leagues, I was given A+ grades and projected for very successful records. Last week, I won my first dynasty league matchup and scored the second-most points in doing so; in my other two leagues, I lost miserably and am among the bottom-dwellers in points scored. Sure, it’s only one week, but it’s kind of funny how that works out.

For what it’s worth, I’m still projected to finish 7th, but now with a 6-8 record.

I do, to a point, trust in the draft grades. That seems to largely bear out with past results. I remember in particular, in the league I won last year, I was among the top graded teams out of the draft. I also remember regularly getting blasted in my grades in this dynasty league, and finding myself at or near the bottom by season’s end.

I don’t know yet if I have anything special with Fight The Mattriarchy, but I’m cautiously optimistic after what happened in Week 1.

I defeated You Dropped Your Dildo 158.30 to 108.30. My first blush of week 1 as a whole is that scoring was down among fantasy players, unless you were blessed to have the Dallas or Jets’ defense, or if you had Tua or Tyreek Hill. Seems like what scoring there was came from sources not on anyone’s rosters, or flooding their benches. I certainly saw some of that on my team.

I started Fields and Cousins at my QB spots. They did okay; but I had Jordan Love on my bench, and he nearly outscored both of them by himself. Live and learn. I don’t know if Love is the real deal yet – it’s only one week, and the Packers seem to own the Bears no matter who’s under center – but I’m encouraged. He has this in him. He looked good throughout; it wasn’t just bubble screens and receivers breaking umpteen tackles. He found open men, down field, and took advantage.

I was able to pick up Courtland Sutton – with Christian Watson out and in my IR spot – and started him over Terry McLaurin, which was the right move. Unfortunately, Jordan Addison outscored them both and he was on my bench. I think I might need to see him do that on a regular basis before I can trust starting him.

Bryce Young had a rough game. Looks like, if he’s ever going to make it, it’s going to take more than a few weeks for him to get going. My hope is, by season’s end, he’ll start to assert himself. I’ll say this much: Justin Fields looked as bad as ever throwing the ball. D.J. Moore appeared to make zero impact in the passing game, and I REALLY thought he was going to have a big day.

Everyone besides the Jets’ defense did just okay. My opponent had Austin Ekeler to take care of business, but just about everyone else underperformed (Dak, Lamar, Waddle, Chase, and the Dolphins’ defense all sucked). I think I got lucky in that regard; he’s got a solid team that should go far this year.

This week, I’m going up against Beasts. He’s a regular playoff participant, and a multi-year champion. I’ll have my hands full; here’s my lineup:

  • Justin Fields (QB) @ TB
  • Jordan Love (QB) @ Atl
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs. NYJ
  • Terry McLaurin (WR) @ Den
  • Kenneth Walker (RB) @ Det
  • Tony Pollard (RB) vs. NYJ
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE) @ Phi
  • Alexander Mattison (WR) @ Phi
  • Evan McPherson (K) vs. Bal
  • N.Y. Jets (DEF) @ Dal

I’m sitting Cousins because it’s a road game in Philly on Thursday night. I don’t have a lot of experience with Cousins on my fantasy teams – because I usually actively avoid having him – but I know his reputation against great defenses in primetime games. No thanks.

I had to drop Sutton because Christian Watson was questionable all week. For now, I have McLaurin over Addison. Addison was third among receivers in snaps – as is expected, given his rookie status – and while I expect that to grow as the season goes along, I just don’t think the Vikings are going to have a great game and I’m trying to limit my usage of them this week.

I don’t love starting McLaurin because he might be going up against Denver’s #1 cornerback. So, I’m hoping Watson can slide back into my IR slot and I can pick up Sutton again. I like having Sutton because my opponent appears to be starting Russell Wilson this week. If he does throw any TDs, I’d like them to go to Sutton please!

I waived Dalvin Cook because Breece Hall looked amazing on Monday night, and I hate a time share more than life itself. In his place, I picked up Chargers backup RB Joshua Kelley. I was hoping to throw him into my lineup this week, but I don’t know if Ekeler will play or not, and with a Thursday game gobbling up a lot of players on my roster, I didn’t have the flexibility to sit Mattison and wait it out. But, I’m trying to think long term with Kelley. Can Ekeler play in every game like he did last year? Seems unlikely. Also, Ekeler is on the final year of his deal, so if Kelley wins that job next year, I can keep him going forward if he proves to be as effective as he’s been in his limited touches.

Here’s who Beasts has going for him:

  • Justin Herbert (QB) @ Ten
  • Russell Wilson (QB) vs. Was
  • Tyler Lockett (WR) @ Det
  • Calvin Ridley (WR) vs. KC
  • Derrick Henry (RB) vs. LAC
  • Christian McCaffrey (RB) @ LAR
  • Mark Andrews (TE) @ Cin
  • Josh Jacobs (WR) @ Buf
  • Jason Myers (K) @ Det
  • Washington (DEF) @ Den

He’s looking pretty stacked. He’s also got Cooper Kupp in his IR slot, which makes him dangerous down the road.

I’m expecting Ridley will come back down to Earth a little bit, after an explosive return to the NFL in week 1. I’m kind of banking on it, as I have Christian Kirk in another league. I also think Lockett is due for a rebound after a tough game against the Rams. Henry and CMC are both studs, and Jacobs is quietly effective. Mark Andrews returning from injury should be a big boost; if not, Beasts also has Higbee from the Rams, so he’s more than set there.

I don’t have a lot of confidence this week. I’m going to be worried for days if I made the wrong choice benching Cousins. Lamb has a tough matchup against the Jets; the Jets’ defense has a tough matchup against Dallas’ offense. And Fields could very easily give me two clunkers in a row, against that Bucs front seven.

But, you know, that’s fantasy football. Anything can happen. I’m 1-0 after one week, that’s pretty good in my book.

Is Geno Smith A Top 10 Quarterback In 2023?

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There’s a lot of Top 10 lists being thrown around nowadays when it comes to the NFL. You know, it’s still pre pre-season, most of the important free agents have signed with teams, and there just isn’t much going on. The calm before the storm, if you will.

So, to get everyone all riled up, media outlets create fake outrage (in the absence of legitimate outrage, which will surely be coming, if it isn’t already here – NFL running backs being underpaid and whatnot) to get everyone talking about football. It’s how we keep the NFL on the front of everyone’s mind 24/7/365.

They’ve been doing this series of Top 10 lists by position group, and save D.K. Metcalf (I think), the Seahawks can’t seem to buy any representation. Hell, even Pete Carroll can’t get a Top 10 nod, being ranked behind the likes of Brian Daboll, Kyle Shanahan, among other coaches who don’t have the resume Pete has. Other than PFF being responsible for that head coach list, I don’t really know where these are coming from. Is it ESPN? NFL.com? Other? I don’t really care.

Other than the head coaching thing, I kind of understand why the Seahawks aren’t among the Top 10 in anything. Outside of D.K., who is our biggest star? I would argue our very best players are so young, they haven’t had a chance to really prove themselves. There’s a variety of rookies from the last couple drafts (including 2023) who I believe will turn into studs, if they aren’t there already. So, you know what? Disrespect them now! Put another chip on their shoulders! I read on Twitter that the Seahawks were iced out of the top 32 in NFL offensive tackles; great! Stupendous! Charles Cross and Abe Lucas see that, and they’re coming for you!

But, if anyone might have a gripe, I think it’s Geno Smith. I think he might be a Top 10 quarterback, and he’s being summarily dismissed once again in the eyes of the know-it-all pundits.

Not all of them. There are always contrarians out there willing to go to bat for Geno. But, it’s weird just the same.

We’re not making a case for All Time Top 10. We’re just talking about the Top 10 quarterbacks heading into 2023. It’s a prediction, based on last year’s production, and what you think is possible for this year.

The usual suspects round out the very top of this list: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert. On the next tier down, I think you can make an argument for Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and even Aaron Rodgers; they all have flaws, but I think they have to be in the conversation just the same.

And I would put Geno Smith squarely in that group in the second tier.

So, we’re locking in the Top 5, in some order: Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Herbert. What about the next five?

Well, I think you have to consider the very real injury risks coming with the likes of Tua, Dak, Lamar, and Stafford. Stafford’s arm is about to fall off, plus the talent around him is depleted. Even if he plays in 2023, I don’t think he’ll be better than Geno. When you take away the Dak injury, he was still wildly inconsistent, and good for at least a mistake a game that might cost ’em. At this point, the bloom is off the rose and I don’t think I would rank him over Geno. Lamar, as a running quarterback, is taking a massive amount of hits over the average pocket passer or scrambler. He isn’t the smartest about avoiding contact, and frankly he’s not the passer that Geno is. Other than Mark Andrews, who is he throwing to? Now that he’s been given the massive contract he was looking for, will he be as motivated? I have a lot of doubts about Lamar, most of all: is he a winner? In the regular season, sure, but I think I’d rather have Geno in a playoff game, all things considered. And, we all know what’s going on with Tua. He’s legit elite in that offense, and could be a Top 5 QB when healthy. But, one more big hit to the head might end his career. No thanks.

Aaron Rodgers is an interesting case here. He definitely wasn’t a Top 10 quarterback in 2022; he was legitimately bad! A lot of that, I’m sure, had to do with the loss of Davante Adams, though it’s concerning because great QBs are supposed to elevate the talent around them. I just think A-Rod was done with Green Bay prior to last season, but they couldn’t move him for a variety of reasons, so they had to eat a sub-par year out of him before sending him on his way. Rodgers has elite receivers in New York. Presumably, the O-Line will be fine, though they might also be terrible (which would worry me). More than anything, I wonder if his heart is in it anymore. He’s getting up there. He’s got a world of interests outside of football. He spent a significant portion of this offseason contemplating whether or not he would play again. And, everyone is already crowning the Jets as the next Super Team, which is always cause for concern. BUT, on the flipside, everyone is already counting Rodgers out. There’s a significant portion of the talking heads out there who are dismissing the Jets for all the reasons I just mentioned. And people are taking every opportunity to clown on Rodgers for his … everything (personality, beliefs, political leanings, etc.). In that respect, part of me wonders if he goes Scorched Earth on the NFL for one more year. I mean, he was just the MVP back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022, so you can’t entirely rule him out.

As for Cousins and Goff, I think there’s enough of a sample for both of them to see where they’re lacking. They play up against the bad teams, but don’t always show up against the good ones. There’s enough mistakes in their game to make them total wild cards on any given week. And, with Trevor Lawrence, last year was really his first with any sort of coaching competence around him. And, in spite of that, Geno still out-performed him in most every major category.

This isn’t to say I think Geno Smith is perfect, or even the best option of all of these Tier 2 guys. He has his own mistake issues. He’ll throw a back-breaking interception, drop a killer fumble, or allow defensive pressure to get the best of him. And he also only has the one season of quality play.

But, Geno was Top 10 in total yards (8th, with 4,282), was 4th in passer rating among quarterbacks who played in at least 13 games, he led the league in completion percentage among qualified passers, he averaged 7.5 yards per attempt (7th in football among QBs who played in at least 13 games), and was one of only 8 quarterbacks who played in all 17 games. He also had the 4th most touchdown passes with 30.

I think in aggregate – based on all of the above – you have to put Geno in the Top 10. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to be there at season’s end. But, knowing what we know now, about him and the rest of the league, when you factor in his ability, the talent and coaching around him, I would put him in the Top 10, and I’m as much of a doubter as anyone.

Will Russell Wilson Be A Hall Of Famer?

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It feels insane to even ask this. Even one year ago, I would’ve told you, “Absolutely, 100%!” But, after that 2022 season, it’s probably a fair question. I mean, shit, people are going to debate Eli Manning’s worthiness up until (and probably even after) he gets in, and the dude won two Super Bowls and is in the top ten of all time passing yardage leaders; you don’t think people are going to debate someone as polarizing as Russell Wilson?

If Russell Wilson was having this career 30 years ago, it’d be a no-brainer. He’d already be a lock to get into the Hall of Fame. But, times have clearly changed. Guys are passing for more and more yards; it’s easier than ever to be an NFL quarterback! I no longer think it’s a simple matter of hanging around for a long time and passing for a ton of yards. I think you need titles, plural. I think you need an MVP or two. I think you need to make a significant impact upon the NFL, ideally with playoff appearances and victories.

Let’s take Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, for instance. Both have thrown for over 60,000 yards; only 8 players have ever done so (Aaron Rodgers will be the 9th, if he plays again next year). There’s even a legitimate question about those two guys, though! Ryan has one Super Bowl appearance (that he famously lost), and Rivers doesn’t even have that. Ryan probably has a little bit of an edge, given that he was the Rookie of the Year and later an MVP, but he’s also only cracked the Pro Bowl four times in his career, and has had plenty of infuriating and underwhelming seasons to his credit.

Wilson, right now, sits at 21 in total passing yards with 40,583. Even if he just repeats his abysmal 2022 season, he’ll get to around 18th in 2023. He’s only 34 years old and has every intention of playing until he’s 40 or beyond. Presumably, even it if means bouncing from team to team, taking whatever chances to start that he can get. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get to at least 50,000 yards passing, and if he does find a way to start for another six years, that probably gets him over the hump of 60,000. But, again, will that – and one title – be enough?

We’ll have to take into consideration what the league looks like by the time Wilson hangs ’em up. Mahomes will be skyrocketing up the passing yardage rankings, as will Burrow, Allen, Herbert, and maybe even Lawrence. He almost certainly will have played an entire career without so much as an MVP vote, let alone an MVP award. And, with the way he’s playing as he ages, I’m finding it harder and harder to believe he’s got another ring in him. The longer that goes on, the more people are going to recognize that 2013 Seahawks team for what it was: the genius of Pete Carroll and John Schneider, and the dominance of Marshawn Lynch and the L.O.B. It’s already swinging back in that direction after years of trying to shoehorn Wilson in there as the catalyst (of which I bought in as much as anyone).

And then there’s the Popularity Contest part of the Hall of Fame voting. You need a media person to plead your case to the committee. Is he well liked by the media? Given his boring, robotic quotes in literally every single interview, I’m guessing not. Is he liked at all? If Kyle Brandt’s not-even-hot take is at all representative of the greater American football media, it wouldn’t shock me if Wilson doesn’t have someone champing at the bit to vouch for him. Jake Heaps isn’t even on the radio anymore, for crying out loud!

I’ll admit, I’m really torn. There’s part of me that wants to see Russell Wilson succeed again, but I think in general I’m going to have a hard time rooting for him in a Broncos uniform. I think a lot of that has to do with me just not liking that particular team. I also have very little love for the Walmart family just based on their business practices alone. But, there’s also that need for the Seahawks to be correct in their decision-making. If Russell Wilson bounces back and leads the Broncos to the Super Bowl, that makes them look better than us. But, if he bounces back with his next team, then we’re an organization removed from this trade, and I can start to see myself rooting for a Wilson comeback (unless he returns to the NFC West to play for one of our rivals, then fuck him).

If I just take the last couple years out of it and stick to the good ol’ days, there are a TON of fond memories. All I would have to do is search Russell Wilson Seahawks Highlights on YouTube and there’d be countless compilation videos of him doing amazing, wonderful, magical things. You look at the Seahawks’ records in those seasons, you look at his records on the stat sheet, it all boils down to the best quarterback this organization has ever had.

When Russell Wilson retires, I’m sure we’ll get right back there. But, you can’t disregard what’s gone down the last two years. His vocal discontent in the media. His talking about a trade demand, followed by the next offseason actually following through on that demand. The way he made things miserable for this organization in his final season here. The way every contract he signed hamstrung this team in ways Tom Brady’s never has. Our worst nightmare – once it became clear Wilson was a star in this league – was him turning into a Me First diva. That’s exactly what happened, and it made the Seahawks actively worse as a result.

It’s not totally unforgivable, but it’s going to take some time to get over. You learn a lot about what kind of guy someone is the longer he stays around with the same team. I think we wanted to desperately to believe Russell Wilson was infallible, that we couldn’t see he was actually the cancer in this organization all along.

But, getting back to the original question, I would say right now, he is not a hall of famer. If he doesn’t win another title, he probably needs another 10-15 thousand more yards. And, even if he does manage to win one more, I’m guessing it’ll be more about the team around him than what he’s able to do slinging the ball. If that’s the case, I think he’s Eli 2.0, and it might take him a while to get over the hump.

Then again, he got his ultimate wish of having Sean Payton becoming his head coach, so I definitely won’t rule out a crazy Russell Wilson Second Act!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2022: Mr. Tinker Train

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I was so damn close to winning four in a row, it’s sickening. Officially, my late-week tinkering fucked me. But, unofficially, I believe I would’ve won if only Justin Fields were still healthy. That, or if the Patriots didn’t play on Thursday night.

See, I took Mac Jones out of my lineup in favor of Mike White of the Jets. The White move in a vacuum was genius, as he got me 33.95 against the Bears. But, that was when I erroneously believed Fields would still go on Sunday. That meant dropping Mac Jones to my bench, who improbably got 31.1 points against the Vikings on Thanksgiving night. He looked terrific! Zipping the ball down field like I’d never seen before! Where the hell has this guy been all year?!

Anyway, when it was decided that Fields would take this week off, that left me with the terrible option of starting the Rams’ backup, Bryce Perkins, whoever that is. He threw a couple of picks and only 100 yards, while only rushing for 44 yards to boot, ending up with a feeble 7.4 points on the week. Clearly, if I’d gone with Mac Jones, I would’ve cruised to victory. Instead, I lost to Car Talk With Josh Allen 163.35 to 151.15.

My bench really crushed. Christian Watson – as expected – got me 21 points for my bench. That was a big leap over Gabe Davis, that overrated shitheel who only got me 7.8. That’s another move that cost me the week. Ezekiel Elliott got me 16.5 for my bench, over Tony Pollard’s 8.1. And, for good measure, Brian Robinson got 20.5 on the week. Nightmare scenario, all the way around.

I’m in a similar quarterback conundrum this week, because once again I don’t know if Fields will play, and once again I have Mac Jones going on Thursday. I have to play Mike White, because he’s the hot hand, and he’s going up against a pretty measly Vikings defense. Jones is at home against the Bills, but I’m not sure if I’m in a position where I can afford to trust Jones just yet. He might not be terrible, is the thing. Even as the bane of my existence this year, he’s still good for 10-15 points when healthy. The 31 he got last week is definitely going to be considered an anomaly until I see it happen again.

On the plus side, it sounds like Fields is feeling better. Is that good enough to actually see game action? We’ll find out. Athletes tend to be overly-optimistic in these cases, when in reality they’re dealing with superhuman pain. Failing that, if I opt to bench Jones again, that leaves me with whoever ends up starting for the Rams. Against a porous Seahawks defense, that might not be the worst thing in the world.

I didn’t make any waiver moves this week, so my priority is all the way up to 3. I don’t know who’s about to become available or desired, but my roster is pretty jam-packed with guys I like. Relatively speaking, that is. For a 4-8 team.

Here’s who I’m looking at starting this week:

  • Mac Jones (QB) vs. Buf
  • Mike White (QB) @ Min
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs. Ind
  • Christian Watson (WR) @ Chi
  • Kenneth Walker (RB) @ LAR
  • Tony Pollard (RB) vs. Ind
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE) vs. NYJ
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ LAR
  • Evan McPherson (K) vs. KC
  • N.Y. Jets (DEF) @ Min

I’m NOT happy about starting Jones in this position. I sat him last week and he got me 31. I’ll start him this week and he’ll get me 13 and I’ll be thoroughly annoyed. Meanwhile, if Fields ends up playing, then White will have to sit, which is also annoying because I think he’s got a very juicy matchup against the Vikings. I might tinker with this again before gametime tonight.

I don’t know how much more I can afford to start Pollard over Zeke. I’ll give it another week because Indy’s defense is pretty good. That being said, I learned some possibly-disturbing news that Pollard is going to be a free agent after this season. On the one hand, that means he’s free to sign wherever, and command a starting job next year. On the other hand, will that team utilize him to as great an effect as the Cowboys have the last couple years? I’ll be VERY interested in where his career takes him.

Gabe Davis is done as a starter for me. He’s purely a bench/fill-in guy for injuries and/or BYE weeks. I look forward to not having him next year. He’s too much of a boom/bust guy in an offense that throws it a shit-ton.

I’m doomed to a fate of facing Beasts this week, who is going to murder me with these guys:

  • Justin Herbert (QB) @ LV
  • Russell Wilson (QB) @ Bal
  • Tyler Lockett (WR) @ LAR
  • Courtland Sutton (WR) @ Bal
  • Derrick Henry (RB) @ Phi
  • Christian McCaffrey (RB) vs. Mia
  • Mark Andrews (TE) vs. Den
  • Josh Jacobs (WR) vs. LAC
  • Jason Myers (K) @ LAR
  • Tampa Bay (DEF) vs. NO

Those running backs are insane. He’ll likely beat me with just those guys alone.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2022: The Dark At The End Of The Tunnel

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It was another demoralizing defeat, it’s fine. This time, it wasn’t quite the bloodbath; I only just BARELY scored the fewest points in the league (the team I lost to the previous week – the team who scored the most that week – just edged me out by .05 points this past week). Car Talk With Josh Allen defeated RoundTine 142.95 to 117.25.

I got 2 points from Justin Fields. He’s looking like utter trash from a fantasy perspective. I would hold out hope for Mac Jones (who managed 13.15 points), but he just suffered a severe high ankle sprain. That means more Fields; lucky me!

Gabe Davis didn’t do much of anything for me; looked like he dropped a TD pass in that one. Everyone else did just sort of okay, but when you’re getting that kind of nothing out of your two QB spots, it’s going to be hard to get over the 100-point hump week-in and week-out. Even if I were able to cherry-pick my very best lineup, I still would’ve lost by a marginal amount, so I’m not too devastated. My calls would’ve been proven right had Davis nabbed that touchdown.

No waiver claims this week, but I did pick up Romeo Doubs from the Packers as a free agent. Once again, we’re playing for the future, and so I’m on the rookie receiver trail, hoping to find the next Justin Jefferson. I already picked up Garrett Wilson, now I have Doubs. In his place, I dropped Diontae Johnson, who is perfectly fine, but he’s got Mitch Trubisky throwing to him. That’s not reliable. Eventually, he’ll have a brand new rookie quarterback throwing to him. That’s also not reliable. Plus, there’s a lot of competition for targets in that offense. It all adds up to a nice little pick-up for someone else in the league to get a dependable receiver going forward.

Meanwhile, I get Doubs, who (for now) has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. I like that a lot more. That seems VERY reliable.

It’s on to next week, against Beasts, one of the best fantasy football owners I know. Here’s who I’ve got:

  • Jameis Winston (QB) vs. Min
  • Justin Fields (QB) @ NYG
  • Gabe Davis (WR) @ Bal
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ Det
  • Javonte Williams (RB) @ LV
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) vs. Was
  • T.J. Hockenson (TE) vs. Sea
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs. Was
  • Evan McPherson (K) vs. Mia
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) @ SF

I’m sitting Doubs because I’m always reluctant to immediately start my brand new lottery ticket. I did the same thing with Wilson last week and was proven correct, as he only got 12 points. I’ve still got Wilson on my bench this week, waiting for a matchup that isn’t the Steelers. He still got a great target share last week, but I think I’m also waiting for Joe Flacco to not be his quarterback anymore. Zach Wilson can return anytime he likes, as far as I’m concerned!

Do you want to see a dynasty team that’s LOADED? Take a look at Beasts:

  • Justin Herbert (QB) @ Hou
  • Russell Wilson (QB) @ LV
  • Cooper Kupp (WR) @ SF
  • Courtland Sutton (WR) @ LV
  • Christian McCaffrey (RB) vs. Ari
  • Derrick Henry (RB) @ IND
  • Mark Andrews (TE) vs. Buf
  • Tyler Lockett (RB) @ Det
  • Tyler Bass (K) @ Bal
  • Tampa Bay (DEF) vs. KC

He might have to swap Herbert out due to injury, but otherwise this is a cakewalk. Do you know what it’s like to go into a contest and know – without a shadow of a doubt – that you’re going to lose? It’s like if I walked into a ring with vintage Mike Tyson. Hell, it would be like walking into a ring with TODAY Mike Tyson! What would it take for me to even be competitive? Every single one of my players would have to have the game of his life, and even then I’d get -4.05 from Fields and lose by 20.

I’d be more demoralized if I wasn’t a combined 5-1 in my other two leagues. I can still do this! I can still be a smart fantasy football guy! I just got trapped inside a hell of my own making with this league.

At one point, Tua was my future. I let him go. At one point, I had Tyreek Hill, and I traded him for some magic beans. At one point, I could’ve had Herbert or Dak or Hurts. Hell, I could’ve had Jared Goff this year and instead I opted for a fifth receiver I don’t really need! This quarterback conundrum has been neverending, for the better part of a decade. Even when I thought I had a good one, I managed to get him in the absolute worst year of his career (I’m having flashbacks to Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers at their pre-old guy nadirs). In this league, I can’t do anything right. Even when I think I’ve gotten everything BUT the quarterback position settled, it’s all just kind of mediocre. I’m in another league where I took that strategy, and it’s working splendidly. But, this league? For whatever reason, my non-quarterbacks can’t seem to get much more than 10 points per week, and often get far less.

I think that’s why I’m reluctant to move on from Jones or Fields. If Tua can do what he’s done so far this year, why couldn’t Fields – at some point – develop into the kind of player who can get me 40+ points? He was great in college, like Tua. He’s not necessarily super mobile with his legs, like Tua. He’s starting out his NFL career without much in the way of offensive talent around him, like Tua. Why couldn’t he blossom in Year 3 or Year 4?

There’s no reason why I shouldn’t be patient. It’s not like these guys are going anywhere. I’m guaranteed at least a top 4 pick for next year. Here’s hoping I’ll find someone among the incoming rookie class to hang my hat on.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Toilet Bowl Week

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Hahmez Wah 360 Allstars defeated Snoopy & Prickly Pete 163.00 to 100.60. All of our players were done playing before Monday, but the matchup between the two fantasy teams was over pretty much during the first quarter of the morning games on Sunday. Justin Fields underperformed and got hurt. CeeDee Lamb underperformed and got hurt. The only player on my team worth a damn was Diontae Johnson, and by the time his game started I was already out of it. His 23.1 points spared me from a sub-100 point game, so for that I’m grateful.

Nothing went right. I had Taylor Heinicke on my bench, who scored 31.2 points. I left Clyde Edwards-Helaire in my IR spot (because no one knew until gametime that he’d actually play this week), who got 15.6 points. Of course, I wouldn’t have won regardless of how I set my lineup, but I’m just pointing it out to show the forces at play in my futility.

Taking a look at the immediate results of my trades last week, Justin Tucker outscored Zane Gonzalez 11 to 3. Again, it’s not WHY I lost, but there you go. Mike Gesicki scored an even 10 points for my TE spot; Pat Freiermuth would’ve gotten me 11.1 (not for nothing, but Noah Fant would’ve gotten me 10.9, just to show you what a wasteland tight end has become). The only moderately good news is that A.J. Brown is no longer on my team; he had to leave the game twice last week for two different injuries (and is officially questionable for this week). I’m sure he’ll return and kick some ass, but I gotta tell you, I’m just glad I don’t have to worry every time I play catch-up on Twitter that I’m going to read some tweet to the effect of “A.J. Brown is limping off the field”.

Anyway, the Toilet Bowl is upon us! Snoopy & Prickly Pete is taking on Korky Butchek for a battle to help decide who ends up with the 2021 last place trophy! I’m 2-9, he’s 3-8; he’s got a 50-point lead. If he beats me, he’ll have a 2-game advantage with only two weeks to go, and it will be a virtual lock that I take home the toilet trophy. If I win, we’re tied in record, and I make up some of that deficit in total points (the tiebreaker if our records are the same at season’s end), giving me two weeks to surpass him in total points to avoid the dubious honor.

Here’s my lineup in this do-or-die week:

  • Mac Jones (QB) vs. TEN
  • Taylor Heinicke (QB) vs. SEA
  • Diontae Johnson (WR) @ CIN
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ WFT
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) vs. LV
  • Javonte Williams (RB) vs. LAC
  • Mike Gesicki (TE) vs. CAR
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) vs. TEN
  • Zane Gonzalez (K) @ MIA
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) @ GB

I am majorly irritated CeeDee Lamb is out with a concussion this week. I’m also majorly irritated CEH is on BYE; I don’t understand why he was brought back last week at all! Why risk it if you’ve got a BYE this week?! Anyway, it looks like I’ll be saddled with starting Stevenson in my FLEX, which is far from ideal.

Of course, Korky Butchek has reason to be irritated himself with the various maladies his team is beset with. Here is a possible alignment of players for him to start this week:

  • Joe Burrow (QB) vs. PIT
  • Daniel Jones (QB) vs. PHI
  • DeVonta Smith (WR) @ NYG
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ NE
  • David Montgomery (RB) @ DET
  • A.J. Dillon (RB) vs. LAR
  • George Kittle (TE) vs. MIN
  • D.J. Moore (WR) @ MIA
  • Daniel Carlson (K) @ DAL
  • New Orleans (DEF) @ BUF

He’s actually got plenty of options to play around with on his bench, so we’ll see what the lineup looks like at gametime. I would assume A.J. Brown will be in there if he’s playing. Otherwise, I’m looking at James Robinson going against a poor Falcons defense. I’m a little surprised to see Danny Dimes in there over Trevor Lawrence, but I could see the Giants making an immediate improvement now that they’ve fired Jason Garrett from the offensive coordinator job.

Korky Butchek has a lot of good players who have simply underperformed this year. I’m going to need them to continue underperforming this week, otherwise it’ll be curtains for me.

Splinter League Round-Up!

BUCK FUTTER took out Beer Thirty pretty handily, even though he got a strong comeback effort in that Chargers game with Herbert and Williams. Aaron Rodgers finishing with 50+ points and the rest of my guys (sans Tee Higgins) pulling their weight made things pretty comfortable. I’m still in third place, but only a game behind Beer Thirty, and only two games behind the first place team. I’m in for a dogfight this week with another 7-4 team; it would behoove me to knock out ChubbyDumplings to put a little distance between me and the teams behind me trying to take me out of a playoff spot. The Saints’ running back situation is scaring the living daylights out of me; I need ONE of either Kamara or Ingram to play. If they both have to sit, I’m in trouble.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Down Goes Jameis

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Hilariously, after writing about how down I was on Justin Fields last week, his beleaguered head coach, Matt Nagy, was kept home due to a COVID outbreak, and Fields ended up having the greatest fantasy game of his career! For my bench, of course, but weird how that happens. It’s like Nagy’s incompetence might be the one holding him back or something!

Snoopy & Prickly Pete lost to The Lance Petemans 151.95 to 139.48. He almost blew it by leaving Calvin Ridley in his lineup, but unfortunately Jameis Winston blew out his knee on an illegal horsecollar tackle and my team was properly fucked as a result. If he had the kind of game it looked like he was going to have, I think I would’ve overcome the final deficit. As it stands, a zero for Ridley kept me in it enough to pick up the Giants’ kicker on Monday night. But, as I expected, Tyreek Hill went off (he always does when I’m up against him, because I foolishly traded him to The Lance Petemans a few years ago), and the Giants’ kicker was worth all of 5 points to me.

A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and CeeDee Lamb all had good-to-great games for me. The Rams’ defense was solid, but could’ve been better. Noah Fant was fucking miserable, and is making me re-think my tight end plans as I consider what I’ve got going for next year. I might end up dropping him entirely if I find a better tight end on the market. I asked on Twitter, and a Denver fan responded that Fant hasn’t been all that great (so it’s not just their lack of talent at quarterback). Either way, a Broncos tight end seems to be a dead end in fantasy. Half his games so far have seen him get less than 10 points (PPR); only two games have seen him get 10 targets or more. I don’t know what to do here.

Mac Jones didn’t do much of anything in my starting lineup, but Taylor Heinicke didn’t do much for my bench either. With Jameis out for the year, I’m left scrambling once again to find a replacement quarterback. I made a couple of waiver claims. Taysom Hill – Jameis’ backup – was snagged out from under me, so I got the next best thing available: Jets’ Week 8 phenom Mike White.

Even though the Bengals did good work against the Ravens, I’d still say their defense is somewhat suspect. Well, the Jets are now going up against the Colts, who have proven to be pretty effective on D. Since this is a road game, and a Thursday night game, I’m going to go ahead and hold off on starting White. However, if he balls out in this one, he might be a redneck the real deal.

On the tight end front, Noah Fant got dinged with a COVID IR designation this week. He needs back-to-back negative tests to be able to play this Sunday. I went ahead and picked up Dawson Knox in free agency, who has missed one game so far with a fractured bone in his hand, but otherwise was on a 3-game run of excellent tight end play before the injury. Since he’s on a quality offense in Buffalo, I’m going to keep him regardless of whether or not he can play this week. Ideally, for Week 9 purposes, one of these guys will return for me. But, long-term, I think Knox might be my guy. He’s only in his third year, and if all goes according to plan, he’ll have Josh Allen throwing to him for a good chunk of his career. That beats whatever the hell Fant has to look forward to in the quarterback quagmire that is Denver.

Put it this way: Fant has 5.4 more points than Knox on the season, yet Knox has missed a game to injury AND had his BYE week (Fant doesn’t have his until Week 11). That tells me everything I need to know about their potential both this year and beyond.

This week, I’m going up against Beasts, who is 4-4 and in 4th place. He’s got beat up by the injury bug, with Russell Wilson going on IR for his hand, and Derrick Henry recently being lost for most of the rest of the season. He’s also had Christian McCaffery doing the Will He Play/Won’t He Play game for most of the season. Given the rest of the talent on Beasts, he’s certainly a contender for the league championship. But, he’s going to have to find a way to hang around and somehow crack the top six to make the playoffs.

Luckily for him, he’s got Snoopy & Prickly Pete this week. Here’s my lineup:

  • Mac Jones (QB) @ CAR
  • Justin Fields (QB) @ PIT
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ LAR
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) vs. DEN
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) vs. DEN
  • Khalil Herbert (RB) @ PIT
  • Dawson Knox (TE) @ JAX
  • Diontae Johnson (WR) vs. CHI
  • Justin Tucker (K) vs. MIN
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) vs. TEN

You know what us fantasy owners of the Rams’ defense loved to see this week? Them trading for Von Miller! Of course, with the way they’re just throwing away draft picks, the long-term viability of the Rams defense seems a little iffy from a dynasty perspective. But, we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. Fantasy defenses are a lot like bullpens in baseball, they can be a little volatile from year to year.

I’m dealing with a D.K. Metcalf and Taylor Heinicke BYE situation, so that rules both of them out. I tell you, I’m loving having four quality starting wide receivers, even though I know I can only keep three of them. It’s a nice problem to have; one of the few nice problems about my fantasy team!

Here’s what Beasts figures to run out there:

  • Justin Herbert (QB) @ PHI
  • Teddy Bridgewater (QB) @ DAL
  • Cooper Kupp (WR) vs. TEN
  • Adam Thielen (WR) @ BAL
  • Boston Scott (RB) vs. LAC
  • Chuba Hubbard (RB) vs. NE
  • Mark Andrews (TE) vs. MIN
  • Courtland Sutton (WR) @ DAL
  • Randy Bullock (K) @ LAR
  • Arizona (DEF) @ SF

It’s definitely not an ideal lineup compared to what he was rolling with earlier this year, but I think there’s easily enough there to get the job done. Herbert and Kupp alone are probably good for 60+ points combined. I have Mark Andrews going on my Splinter League team, so it’s going to be weird to root for him to kill it.

I’m guessing I get a 0 from my tight end position, and under 10 from Fields. The rest of my guys have tough opposing matchups or are on the road. I think I’ll be lucky to clear 130 points this week. So, even if Beasts underperforms, he should still have enough firepower to defeat me.

Splinter League Round-Up!

That’s back-to-back wins for BUCK FUTTER, with the week’s biggest blowout over the last place team. The latest impressive victory makes me the league leader in total points this season, which you love to see. I had a bit of a dilemma with both of my Bucs receivers on BYE this week, but I found Cole Beasley in free agency. I hope the anti-vaxxer doesn’t get COVID this week! He and Tee Higgins will be my guys in the WR spots, with the rest of my team being running back-heavy. I was able to drop Deshaun Watson this week, since the trade deadline passed with him still in Houston. That’s okay, I’ll only need Mac Jones to start for two weeks. If he needs to start more than that, something has gone seriously wrong. I have a tough one this week against Vinegar Strokes, who is right on my heels at 4-4. This week will be HUGE for my playoff implications.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Justin Fields Looks Far From Ideal

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Well, it was a nice idea: Justin Fields had been slowly, but surely, getting better every week he’d been starting for the Bears. But, that offense is broken and they’ve done nothing to help their rookie quarterback succeed. The Bears even managed to be the first team this year to successfully run the ball against the Bucs! You’d think with that advantage, they would’ve mustered something against a depleted secondary. But, based on my eye test, I didn’t see a lot of play-action. Just a lot of plays that were probably designed for an Andy Dalton-led offense (or, given Matt Nagy’s reptuation, probably just a generic offense he’s hoping to shoe-horn into any situation, regardless of who’s under center).

There are two things at play: either Justin Fields just doesn’t have it and is a bust, or the Bears coaches are failing him and will likely be fired at season’s end (if not sooner). Either way, that doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in Fields’ viability as a fantasy quarterback. Certainly, he’s not someone worth hanging onto for next year.

Of course, I’m not going to waive him; I’ll let the season play out and see if there’s a dramatic turnaround. But, I’m assuming we’ll see more of the same conservative, unoriginal play-calling, resulting in the same conservative, mediocre offensive scoring output. That will, ultimately, break Fields as a prospect and we’ll all be wondering which team he’s going to be a backup on in a few years.

Mac Jones, on the other hand, looks pretty good! It’s hard to say if he’s going to be an elite fantasy quarterback; he very well could just be one of the better game managers a la Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz (in Indy, so far) and not a Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes. That doesn’t do me a lot of good, though those types of game managers – in their primes – can be okay as a second quarterback in a 2-QB league. But, you really need a stud to anchor your team week-in and week-out in fantasy, and it’s still up in the air whether or not Jones can be that guy.

His 29.25 points (for my bench) this week against the Jets was a season (and therefore career) high. Prior to this week, he had three games right around 20 points, with three other games significantly under 20 points. It’s fair to say they haven’t taken his training wheels off yet, so the best may still be to come. But, there’s also the chance for – as he gets more freedom – increased turnovers and other mistakes. Also, 29.25 is fine, but a stud will get you 30+ on the regular. Let me know when Mac Jones has multiple 40+ games. Also, 29.25 came against the Jets. I know they hampered him earlier in the season, but their defense is starting to get mighty depleted, and I bet any mediocre QB would’ve done something similar against that flailing team.

Taylor Heinicke (also for my bench) managed to out-score either of the guys I started this week, and he was close to having a 30+ point game. That was on the road, in Green Bay, against some shaky officiating, so color me moderately impressed. I’m not giving up on him just yet, though he might be running out of time, with Fitzpatrick on the mend and set to get his job back when he’s ready.

As expected, Snoopy & Prickly Pete lost to COVID Bubble Boys 171.25 to 111.20. Even if I had fielded a FLEX guy, I would’ve lost. Perhaps if I’d played my best two QBs AND fielded a FLEX guy, I could’ve made it interesting (this would also assume I’d drop Trey Sermon – who had zero stats in the 49ers game this week, as he seemed to be strictly an emergency back for them – and inserted a running back from the scrap heap), but even with COVID Bubble Boys starting Trey Lance at QB (who wasn’t even active), he scored a ton of points that my team wasn’t equipped to cover. You hate to see it.

No roster moves this week, so it’s on to Week 8. Snoopy & Prickly Pete goes up against The Lance Petemans. He’s in 9th place, I’m in 10th place (out of 10 teams); we’re both 2-5. We very well may be looking at a future Consolation Bracket matchup, so it’ll be fun to scout things out now.

Here’s what my lineup is looking like:

  • Jameis Winston (QB) vs. TB
  • Mac Jones (QB) @ LAC
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) vs. JAX
  • A.J. Brown (WR) @ IND
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ MIN
  • Khalil Herbert (RB) vs. SF
  • Noah Fant (TE) vs. WAS
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) @ MIN
  • TBD (K)
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) @ HOU

You know what? I’m not gonna lie to you, I like a lot of my matchups! I like a Jameis Revenge Game at home against the Bucs. I like Mac Jones needing to throw a lot on the road against the high-flying Chargers. I like D.K. against the Jags (where the Seahawks should FINALLY have a get-right game with Geno at the helm). I like A.J. against a depleted Colts secondary. I really like Fant against a suspect Football Team defense. And, the Rams should have no trouble making life miserable for the Texans and their inept offense (though, I’m less than thrilled with the prospect of Tyrod Taylor returning; he’s actually competent).

My bench includes Diontae Johnson, who has to go on the road to play a tough Browns team. I could see that game being very low-scoring, but I could also see Johnson racking up points anyway and making me rue the day I went with D.K. over him. Otherwise, it’s Fields against the 49ers (we’ll see) and Heinicke against the Broncos on the road (far from ideal).

Here’s what The Lance Petemans are running out:

  • Ryan Tannehill (QB) @ IND
  • Kirk Cousins (QB) vs. DAL
  • Tyreek Hill (WR) vs. NYG
  • Calvin Ridley (WR) vs. CAR
  • Darrell Henderson (RB) @ HOU
  • James Conner (RB) vs. GB
  • Tyler Higbee (TE) @ HOU
  • Keenan Allen (WR) vs. NE
  • Matt Gay (K) @ HOU
  • San Francisco (DEF) @ CHI

He’s got a pretty good team, that’s clearly favored over me this week, and would likely defeat me even if I pick up a kicker. He’s unfortunately got Tyreek Hill going on Monday Night, which means A LOT would have to go right for me and wrong for him on Sunday if I were to – at the last minute – want to pick up the Giants’ kicker on Monday Night. Hill always has the potential to go off for 40+ points in any given game, and the Giants’ defense is God-awful. So, we’ll see, but I’m not holding my breath.

If I do end up dropping anyone, it’ll be Trey Sermon. It’s probably a bad sign that the 49ers have two rookie running backs, and the lower-ranked one is the workhorse in this situation. I’m sure there’s still ample opportunity for Sermon to pick up the offense and be a dynamic player late in the season. But, they have another running back returning from PUP or IR pretty soon, so it’s looking highly doubtful.

Splinter League Round-Up!

No trouble this week for BUCK FUTTER! I had the biggest blowout in the league, 198.44 to 131.26 over I REGRET NOTHING. Huge days from A-Rod and Stafford, huge days from my TB receivers, and a huge day from Kamara on Monday Night all sealed the deal. I REGRET NOTHING mistakenly left in Sterling Shepard even though he was inactive (probably leading him to regret that, at least), but it wouldn’t have mattered. This time I had the third-most points scored in the league, but lady luck was on my side (as I didn’t go up against one of the top two). That brings my record up to 4-3 (third place overall), still with the second-most points scored in the league this season. Now I get the luxury of going up against the last place team, sitting on a ton of injuries. Here’s hoping I don’t massively underperform!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team 2021: Snoopy & Prickly Pete

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Also, check out the Fantasy Football tag for all my past ramblings on the subject.

Last year ended as horribly as can be in my Main League. I made the 6-team playoffs, but then promptly lost in the first round. That means I missed out on the 4-team consolation bracket – which plays for the top 4 draft picks the following season – and was saddled in the 5/6 game, playing for the 5th/6th draft pick. Of course, I lost that game as well, and here I was, heading into this season drafting 6th out of 10 teams, in a standard (non-snake) draft.

Last year, we were up to 4 keepers, having steadily increased that number over the last few years, with the ultimate goal of turning the league into a Dynasty League. Finally, there was enough discontent that the talk at this year’s rules meeting centered on, “We either need to go full dynasty, or blow it all up and eliminate keepers altogether.”

I don’t mind telling you I was lobbying hard to go with the dynasty league. I’ve been spending the last few years suffering mediocre finishes all in the name of trying to find the best keepers possible to carry over (with the primary goal of finding one or two quality quarterbacks to finally cement that position once and for all). I didn’t want all of that work to go to waste. Thankfully, by the thinnest of margins, we were able to vote in the dynasty.

Our set up is like this: we have to keep all of our starting positions. 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF. Easy peasy. We’ll get to wait until about a week before our fantasy draft next year before declaring who those keepers will be. Then, at the draft, we’ll select our 5 bench spots out of whoever’s left over, plus any incoming rookies.

This all starts NEXT year, meaning that we’re still only carrying over 4 keepers from last season. But, with our draft – that took place last Thursday – it’s officially on. If you’re not going all-in on the dynasty aspect with regards to who you’re drafting, then that means you like your team an awful lot and are pushing to win the championship within the next 1-2 years.

I didn’t love my keepers heading into our draft, because – SPOILER ALERT – I had no quarterbacks among the four. My keepers were:

  1. A.J. Brown (WR)
  2. CeeDee Lamb (WR)
  3. Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
  4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

That’s the ranking of how much I liked them, 1 through 4. I was waffling back and forth on CEH until the bitter end, before I read enough pundits who think he’s due to have a bounce-back year in his second season in the league. I can buy it. He doesn’t appear to have a lot of competition at the spot in Kansas City; even though they throw the ball WAY MORE than they run it, he could sneak in for some more touchdowns and still catch a lot of balls.

I had zero interest in keeping Josh Jacobs. He was supposed to be my horse last year, but he underwhelmed, and then the Raiders brought in Kenyan Drake (the bane of every fantasy owner’s existence wherever he plays, because he’s always stealing carries from someone more promising). I had a lot of fringey receivers I was mulling over (Jerry Jeudy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Chark, and Rashard Higgins), but all of those guys are players that could easily be had in any fantasy draft.

As for my two quarterbacks, I had Kirk Cousins (who’s a non-starter for me, since he’s not vaccinated – which means there’s a high likelihood he misses games this year – and he’s just overall mediocre), and Tua Tagovailoa. I made a HUGE to-do about picking him up on waivers last year, thinking his Alabama pedigree might translate to NFL success. But, he just looked too shitty as a rookie last year. More often than not, you can see which rookie quarterbacks are going to be studs, and which ones are going to be Marcus Mariota. Tua looks like he’s going to be a left-handed Mariota.

In the end, my final keeper came down to CEH and Tee Higgins. I was THIS close to keeping Higgins, because I freaking love that dude, and I think in that Bengals offense he’s going to be steadily productive for the next decade. But, the Bengals also went out and drafted another elite receiver really high in this year’s draft, plus they still have Tyler Boyd, who’s solid. There ended up being too many cooks in that kitchen, and I was scared off. I still think Higgins will be the best of those three this year, but going forward, it’s iffy.

Plus, let’s face it, there are tons of solid wide receivers all throughout the league. Keeping three of them seemed like overkill. I would’ve been effectively handing over my FLEX spot to Higgins, and if for whatever reason he struggles, then I’ve wasted one of my keeper spots for a fringe fantasy starter.

***

I had a couple plans heading into the draft with my 6th overall pick. Trevor Lawrence would obviously be off the table (he, indeed, went #1 overall). I assumed Najee Harris would also be off the table (he ended up being taken with the third pick, for reasons I’ll get into in a moment). I ranked my top six players, and my third choice would’ve been Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (who very well might’ve fallen to me, as he was ultimately taken 7th), followed by Matthew Stafford (who did fall to me, though I ended up trading him – SPOILER ALERT AGAIN), and then the Washington and Indy running backs as 5th and 6th (they ended up going 5th and 4th respectively).

I would’ve been elated to have Matthew Stafford, because I think he’s going to have an awesome year with the Rams. Plus, he’s only 33 years old, which means he could have another 7-10 years ahead of him if things break right!

My general plan was to load up on quarterbacks – taking lots of flyers on rookies, after Stafford – and running backs (to try to load up on depth in case of injuries and BYEs). This was always going to be a quasi-throwaway year for me, in hopes that I’d find the two quarterbacks I’d be rolling with for the next 5-10 years.

That was thrown out the window when Hahmez Wah 360 Allstars (don’t ask) texted the entire league saying his keepers were available for trade (in exchange for players and/or draft picks).

He actually had four pretty good keepers (Derrick Henry, D.K. Metcalf, George Kittle, and Stefon Diggs), but for whatever reason, he was looking to shake things up.

I didn’t want Henry because he’s being run into the ground and probably has 1-2 more years MAX before he begins his slide. I didn’t want Kittle because he could be an injury risk with the way he plays the game and how hard he is on his body. D.K. Metcalf is obviously a huge draw for me, as a Seahawks fan, and I think he’s someone who could be the #1 scoring wide receiver as early as THIS year. Plus he’s young and should be good for another decade. Sign me up!

I made Hahmez Wah 360 Allstars a lowball offer (I think a second rounder, or a fourth rounder plus A.J. Brown); he countered saying he needed my first rounder. I took a bit to think about it, before ultimately concluding that D.K. Metcalf with the 6th pick would be guaranteed to be better than anyone who might fall to me (there would’ve been the potential for higher upside with someone like Pitts, but there’s always a risk with any rookie).

I’m lucky I accepted the offer when I did, because by the next day someone had offered him the #2 overall pick for D.K. I told that guy (with the #2 pick) if Trevor Lawrence somehow – by the grace of God – fell out of the top spot, I’d trade him D.K. for Lawrence (which he agreed to, since he already has Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert as his keepers), but of course that was never going to happen.

Hahmez Wah, in the end, turned his aforementioned keepers into Jalen Hurts (#2 overall) & Chris Carson (he traded his #9 overall for the #2 overall, while also giving away Derrick Henry in the deal), Matthew Stafford (in the Metcalf deal), Tyler Lockett (in the Kittle deal, where he got the first pick in the second round), while still hanging onto Stefon Diggs. I wouldn’t love that for my team – if I were him, I would’ve stuck the keepers I had – but I understand the impulse in making a radical change. Also, it IS a game, after all; it’s supposed to be fun, right? What’s more fun than a crazy slew of trades?

***

So, heading into the second round, I had three receivers and two running backs. It was time to start looking into the quarterback position.

No other QB was taken after the three I already mentioned. Next up on my private dynasty rankings was Justin Fields, so I grabbed him with my second pick. No, he’s not starting right away, but the stories I’ve read about him were phenomenal, and I think he has real breakout potential. Trey Lance was going to be my next choice, but he was taken from me two picks before my spot in the third round, so I settled on Mac Jones. Also hearing great stories about him! Less of a running threat, but in a better team situation than Fields, so I like that.

Then, for good measure – because I needed someone to start right away in week one – I nabbed Jameis Winston. He’s been on and off my fantasy team for years, but he had last year off (for the most part) and has been learning the Saints’ system. If he’s even remotely more careful with the ball, he’s a guy who’s capable of throwing for 5,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns. We also forget: he’s also only 27 years old; so if he does change his entire career around, that could be a steal for me.

As chance would have it, Cousins was around for my fifth pick, but I zagged and went with the Rams’ defense. I feel like they have the potential to be solid for the duration of Aaron Donald’s career, so why not? Then, with my sixth pick, Noah Fant was still available. I had him as a rookie and it sounds like the offense is going to be vastly improved in Denver, so I like the idea of having him for the foreseeable future. Also, the drop-off after Fant was pretty considerable (the next guys taken were Goedert and Tonyan; I’m good with my choice).

Then, I finally had to break down and get a third running back. Obviously, my plan to load up on the position was a failure. It was down to Chase Edmonds or Raheem Mostert in the 7th round. Edmonds went one pick earlier, so Mostert it is! I like Mostert; when he’s healthy, he’s dominant (in many ways, he’s like Chris Carson). He just can’t stay healthy. But, if I can squeeze a few weeks out of him, I’ll look to hopefully address the running back position next year.

In the 8th round, I nabbed Justin Tucker. He’s only 31 years old and he’s the best kicker in football. He could be around for another 10-15 years if he takes care of himself. After that, I went back to the quarterback well, grabbing Jimmy G. Obviously, the 49ers drafted their quarterback of the future. But, if you look at the 49ers’ schedule, it’s pretty damn easy the first few weeks of the season. I’ll mix and match with him and Mac Jones for a while until Jimmy G ultimately gets benched, and hope he has enough pride to force the 49ers’ hand in benching a guy playing well. At the very least, he has a soft landing against the Lions in week one, where I expect him to be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback (for just that one week, anyway). Yes, I know there’s potential for Lance to snipe some snaps from him, but I don’t care. As long as he’s not getting entire chunks of plays in the red zone, I’ll be happy.

With my next-to-last pick, I took a chance on Buffalo’s Zack Moss. He was a rookie last year and the team obviously liked him enough to draft him in the third round. Maybe this is the year he assumes the starter job! Of course, even then, it’s not like Buffalo runs the ball all that much. I’m hoping they get such huge leads early in games, that they’ll be running the ball exclusively in the fourth quarter.

Finally, for my super sleeper, I picked Jordan Love, backup quarterback of the Green Bay Packers. I’m going to do my damnedest to hang onto him all year. The way I see it, if none of my rookie QBs pan out this year, and are not keeper-worthy in my eyes, I’ll just keep Love and roll the dice. They obviously drafted him to be Aaron Rodgers’ replacement sooner or later. If I have no one better, why not keep him and see if he’s elite?

***

There’s obviously a lot wrong with my team at this point in my dynasty. The quarterback situation is a mess and my running back depth is nil. But, I have just the three receivers: D.K., Brown, and Lamb, and I think all three of those guys are Top 10 calibre players at the position. I’m set! In non-BYE weeks (and, in non-injury situations), I have my two WR spots and my FLEX spot all locked down. Not having any receivers on my bench affords me the luxury of carrying extra RBs and QBs. If I’m ever able to lock down the quarterback spot to my satisfaction, that leaves me more room on my bench for even more RBs, as well as potential backups to tight end or defense (which always comes in handy).

I think I’m done making RBs a priority. Unless some super-stud rookie falls to me in the first round of the draft next year, I’m just going to do my best to either stream running backs or carry enough in those second-to-fourth tiers to play matchups and hope I get around 10 points from each. If my QBs and receivers can carry me, I think that’s a championship formula. Running backs are just too damn fickle and too injury prone; it’s impossible to rely on them to be 20+ point workhorses anymore. I’d rather go for elite receivers, hope they blow up a few times a year, and just get steady-if-unspectacular production from my RBs. Plus, if I’m able to find someone on the free agent scrap heap that comes from nowhere to crush it, all the better.

***

Now, it’s time to talk about this week. My team is Snoopy & Prickly Pete (Seinfeld reference, for the second straight year!). I’m going up against the reigning league champion, Car Talk With Josh Allen (guess who one of his quarterbacks is). He’s projected to finish third in our league (one game ahead of me), and – not for nothing – he’s projected to beat me in week 1.

Here’s my week 1 lineup, barring any unexpected last-minute COVID issues:

  • Jameis Winston (QB) vs. GB
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) @ DET
  • CeeDee Lamb (WR) @ TB
  • A.J. Brown (WR) vs. AZ
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) @ TB
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) vs. CLE
  • Noah Fant (TE) @ NYG
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR) @ IND
  • Justin Tucker (K) @ LV
  • L.A. Rams (DEF) vs. CHI

As I said, I love Jimmy G against a nothing Detroit defense; Mac Jones is my only other option and I’d rather not start a rookie in his first game, against a defense as good as Miami’s. As I also said, all my receivers are locked in, which means the only other choice was my #2 running back (though, I don’t love Zeke against that Bucs defense, with their All Pro guard out for this game). I briefly considered Mostert against Detroit, but I’d really like to see what the 49ers’ offense looks like, with their two quarterbacks, plus their new rookie running back angling to steal snaps. I’m rolling with all my keepers, at least for now!

Car Talk looks like he’s got the following:

  • Josh Allen (QB) vs. PIT
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) vs. LAC
  • Allen Robinson (WR) @ LAR
  • Julio Jones (WR) vs. AZ
  • Aaron Jones (RB) @ NO
  • Joe Mixon (RB) vs. MIN
  • Travis Kelce (TE) vs. CLE
  • Robert Woods (WR) vs. CHI
  • Tyler Bass (K) vs. PIT
  • Baltimore (DEF) @ LV

Our teams are pretty much even (he’s a little better at QB, I’m a little better at WR) except for the difference in our projected points from the tight end position. Kelce is the best in football; mine is just okay. That’s always a huge advantage and I hope I’m able to one day have something similar on my team. In the meantime, I’ll just have to hope the Chiefs run the ball more and throw their TDs to their wide receivers. That’s a tall ask.

I’m guessing I’ll lose this game. I’ll be down in the dumps on Sunday, but a dynasty league isn’t about just one week, or even one season. This is a transitional year, and I hope to be better at the end than I am at the beginning.

In the meantime, PATIENCE! I need to practice extreme patience, and accept losing for what it is: a temporary means to an end, that will one day result in my name on that championship trophy. Maybe not this year, but one year soon. Let’s fucking go.

Predicting The 2021 NFL Season

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YES! My favorite post of the year! Back again, boys and girls! Here are all of my prior entries:

First thing’s first: let’s take a look back at how I did last year.

Welp, bad start with the NFC East: I was all in on Dallas and had Washington dead last. That’s a big 0 or 1 right out of the box.

Big whiff on the NFC North: for some reason I was EXTREMELY high on the Vikings last year, who finished 7-9. I shorted the Packers (but gave them a wild card berth), who finished 13-3. And, I said the Bears were “heading in the wrong direction” even though they finished 8-8 and made the playoffs. I was only correct about the Lions, but who couldn’t see that coming?

Ugh, the less said about my NFC South prediction the better: I had … the Falcons winning it? I did have Tampa second, but not making the playoffs, famously saying their defense was “a year or two away”. Yikes. You don’t read this blog for expert analysis, do you? How am I getting WORSE at these picks the more I do them?!

God, even my NFC West take was horrible: I had the Rams winning it (they did make the wild card), with both the 49ers and Seahawks making the wild card (in that order). Of course, in reality the 49ers were in last place after a bunch of injuries; hard to blame me for not predicting that.

All right, not too terrible with the AFC East: I nailed the Buffalo division winner. Buuuuut, I had the Pats making a wild card.

I’m quite happy with my AFC North prediction: I had all of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland making the playoffs (they did!). I did have the Ravens winning the division instead of the Steelers, but otherwise I’m taking that as a win.

I’ll accept partial credit for my AFC South take: I loved Indy; not so much Tennessee. I didn’t have Houston making the playoffs, but never anticipated they’d be as bad as they were. I nailed Jacksonville getting the #1 overall pick.

As for the AFC West: good stuff in making KC my number one overall team; bad stuff in saying that Justin Herbert wouldn’t be the Chargers’ quarterback of the future. It is what it is.

If we just count playoff teams, I got 9 out of 14 (though I got 6 out of 7 in the AFC). I only got 1 out of 4 teams in the conference championship games – the Chiefs – but I had … Jesus Christ, the Vikings over the Ravens in the Super Bowl. Fucking A.

***

All right, wash that taste out of your mouth! It’s all uphill from here! Without further ado.

NFC East

  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Washington Football Team
  • New York Giants
  • Philadelphia Eagles

I’m going to say we’re going to have most of a full season (if not ALL) out of Dak, and that ultimately makes all the difference. There’s lots of Washington chatter, and I don’t blame you; that defense is legit. But, Fitzmagic? I’m out; I think he’s good for maybe 9 wins. I think Dallas can get to 10. The Giants likely won’t be as bad as people expect, but I still think they’re around 6-7 wins. The Eagles MIGHT be as bad as people expect; either way, I don’t think the NFC East will be the punching bag people have come to anticipate.

NFC North

  • Green Bay Packers
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Chicago Bears
  • Detroit Lions

We’re not fucking around this year. The Packers have won 13 games the last two years and I think that will stay the same this year. I don’t know what to say about the Vikings after last year’s display of futility; probably won’t be worse? The Bears will take a step back with Dalton, before taking a step forward with Fields. The Lions will continue to be a punching bag.

NFC South

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • New Orleans Saints
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Carolina Panthers

I know I’m going to be screwed by the Bucs in one way, shape, or form. They do have the target on their backs, but there’s just SO MUCH talent on that team. I guess Brady could start showing his age, or injuries could take a toll, but I dunno. I’m going with the safe pick this year. I kind of like Jameis; is that weird? I mean, I like him on this team, in this offense. I think they’ll be okay! I don’t know anything about the Falcons, but I hear they could be frisky. The Panthers seem the opposite of frisky; lethargic, I guess? Sam Darnold sucks.

NFC West

  • Los Angeles Rams
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • Arizona Cardinals

I wanted to put the Seahawks as the division winner here, but the more I think about it, the more I’m concerned by this team. First-year offensive coordinator; you think there won’t be growing pains? You think there won’t be frustrating losses where the offense can’t move the ball? I’ll have more on this on Friday’s official season preview, but it just looks like the Rams are too stacked. Stafford will throw for 5,000 yards and they’re probably in line for the top seed in the NFC. The 49ers are just all-around talented, and regression should dictate a healthier season from them. I still like the Seahawks to crack the wild card though. And the Cards should play around .500 ball again.

AFC East

  • Buffalo Bills
  • New England Patriots
  • Miami Dolphins
  • New York Jets

I think this is the easiest division to predict; Buffalo by a mile (and the AFC’s top seed). I think the Pats are improved across the board and will get just enough game-managing out of their rookie quarterback to sneak into the wild card. I think Tua is a bust and will hamper the Dolphins, though they’ll be close to making a wild card. I think the Jets are the Jets.

AFC North

  • Cleveland Browns
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Cincinnati Bengals

We’re not going to see three playoff teams from this division this year, and the odd-team-out will be the Ravens. The way the injury bug is decimating this team already, I think they’re in for a Year From Hell season. I think the Browns simply have too much talent throughout that team to be held back. I think the Steelers will figure out their O-Line and continue to dominate along the D-Line. I think the Bengals will continue to grow with Burrow, but it’s going to be another year or two before we can consider them playoff material.

AFC South

  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Tennessee Titans
  • Houston Texans
  • Jacksonville Jaguars

I would say I’m a quasi Carson Wentz believer. Behind a good offensive line, with a great head coach, I think he can be special. The Colts’ defense is underrated; the only question is their receivers (especially with T.Y. Hilton out). I think the Titans come close to making the playoffs, but that defense is just too awful. A lot of people are predicting the Texans to have the worst record in football, but I think Tyrod Taylor will pull it out in enough of those 50/50 games they play with other terrible teams. Don’t get me wrong; Houston is probably still winning 3-4 games, but that should be more than the Jags.

AFC West

  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Denver Broncos
  • Las Vegas Raiders

I think the Chiefs and Bills will fight to the bitter end for that top seed, but the Bills will prevail. The Chargers are more of an aspirational pick for me, because I think they’re fun. I also think their defense is a little underrated, and with proper head coaching, they should be in line for a record boost. I think the Broncos will be steady, maybe 9-8. I think the Raiders will fall on their faces pretty hard, with Jon Gruden on the hottest of seats.

NFC Playoffs

  1. Los Angeles Rams
  2. Green Bay Packers
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  4. Dallas Cowboys
  5. San Francisco 49ers
  6. Seattle Seahawks
  7. Washington Football Team

AFC Playoffs

  1. Buffalo Bills
  2. Kansas City Chiefs
  3. Cleveland Browns
  4. Indianapolis Colts
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers
  6. New England Patriots
  7. Los Angeles Chargers

Two playoff teams from the NFC East? Have I learned NOTHING?!

Wild Card Round

  • Green Bay over Washington
  • Seattle over Tampa Bay
  • Dallas over San Francisco
  • Kansas City over Los Angeles
  • New England over Cleveland
  • Pittsburgh over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

  • Los Angeles over Seattle
  • Green Bay over Dallas
  • Buffalo over New England
  • Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Championship Round

  • Los Angeles over Green Bay
  • Buffalo over Pittsburgh

Super Bowl

  • Buffalo over Los Angeles

My backup guess is Buffalo over the Packers, but either way I’m all in on the Bills. Since I was all in on the Vikings last year, they should be TERRIFIED. Buffalo just seems like a juggernaut any way you slice it, though.