Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 3

My Rationale Beforehand

Ol’ King Flippy Nips really needed that win last week.  We SHOULD be 2-0 and one of the scariest teams in the league, but instead we’re the best of the 1-1 teams (#2 in total points overall) and in a dogfight against the top scoring team in the league, the 2-0 Space Forcin’.

Since there’s hashtag No Time To Sleep, there were a couple more roster moves to sort out this week.  First thing’s first, I used my dreadful waiver priority (I want to say I was 8th out of 10) to pick up Ryan FitzMagic.  I figured after his week 1 heroics, it was all a fluke, and probably the Saints’ defense isn’t that good this year.  However, he threw for 4 more TDs against the Super Bowl champion Eagles, so this HAS to be for real, right?  He’s got 94 points in two weeks in our league!  Maybe it’s like a Case Keenum situation from last year, where a veteran comes from out of nowhere to take the league by storm!

Plus, he’s going up against the Steelers on Monday Night this week, their defense looks atrocious, so I feel better about FitzMagic than I do Derek Carr (at Miami, whose defense COULD be secretly good) or Andy Dalton (at Carolina, whose defense is usually good when healthy).

To make room for the magic man, I once again waived Kenny Stills, after a 3.70-point week.  Bottom line:  Miami’s offense is never going to be explosive enough to want to count on him week-to-week, so it’s all going to be Boom or Bust with this guy and I just don’t need that in my life right now.

Early Wednesday morning, I was up at 3:30am, a few hours after the waiver claims went through, looking to do even more tinkering.  See, this week, Carson Wentz is set to make his triumphant return, so there’s really no need to keep Nick Foles – a fifth quarterback – on the roster (frankly, even 4 QBs is too many, considering how small our benches are).  In looking to boost my skill position depth, I picked up Detroit’s Kenny Golladay, who has been terrific when healthy, and obviously plays for a more explosive offense than Miami’s.  He’s not just a big play, touchdown-dependent receiver; through two weeks he’s averaging over 10 targets per game, and is on a team that should frequently find itself behind and needing to throw their way back into games.  Golladay won’t start for me now, but if he keeps it up, I could see him supplanting Demaryius Thomas sooner or later for my FLEX spot.

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz vs. IND
  • QB2 – Ryan FitzMagic vs. PIT
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill vs. SF
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen vs. BUF
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott @ SEA
  • RB2 – Leonard Fournette vs. TEN
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson vs. GB
  • TE – Jordan Reed vs. GB
  • FLEX – Demaryius Thomas @ BAL
  • K – Robbie Gould @ KC
  • DEF – Chicago @ AZ

My bench is:  Dalton, Carr, Adrian Peterson Fournette, Robert Woods, Golladay, and Greg Olsen.

I like almost all of these matchups.  My only concern with Thielen is that the Vikings will be up so big that they’ll eventually stop throwing the ball, and if Thielen doesn’t get his early and often, it could be a surprisingly quiet day.  Obviously, you never know what’s going to happen – any one of these guys could throw up some duds – but I’ll take my chances with this lineup against just about anybody’s.

It’s nice having Fournette back in the fold, since I don’t love Peterson’s chances against the Packers.  I wouldn’t mind playing either of those backup receivers, as they both figure to be in high-scoring games, but when in doubt, go with the #1 receiver in Thomas.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:  the neverending disappointment that is Leonard Fournette’s injury-riddled body reared its ugly head once again.  Even though he was able to practice in a limited capacity all week, the Jags are holding him out yet another game.  My expected points took a pretty significant hit with Peterson not likely to get much of anything going against the Packers (since the Redskins figure to be playing from behind all game and trying to throw their way back into it).  Here’s the real bummer of not having a deeper bench and a bigger stable of backup running backs.  If only I could’ve injected one of my spare wide receivers into this game!

As I noted, I’m going up against the best team in the league through two weeks.  I’m second overall in points and Space Forcin’ has outscored me by 48.81 (to put it in context, I’m closer to the 5th place team in total points than I am to him in first).  His keepers were Mahomes, Rivers, and Kamara (i.e. the three best fucking keepers in the league; i.e. the 2nd, 5th, and 8th best players in our league).  While his bench is pretty suspect, he’s rounded out by some high-ceiling, high-floor players that will make all of our lives a living hell as long as they remain healthy.

It should be pointed out that the guy running Space Forcin’ has had my number in recent seasons; even if his teams suck, he seems to really get it up for kicking my ass.  So, I can love my guys and I can love my matchups until the cows come home, but it’s not going to make me even remotely confident as we head into this week.  In the next section, we’ll talk about how my week went.

***

Week 3 Results

And here we are, a 1-2 record with the second-most points scored in the entire league.  This is my fantasy fucking life.

Here’s what Space Forcin’ looked like, as they thoroughly destroyed me, 192.14 to 166.90:

  • QB1 – Philip Rivers @ LAR
  • QB2 – Patrick Mahomes vs. SF
  • WR1 – JuJu Smith-Schuster @ TB
  • WR2 – Davante Adams @ WAS
  • RB1 – Alvin Kamara @ ATL
  • RB2 – Jordan Howard @ AZ
  • TE – O.J. Howard vs. PIT
  • FLEX – Quincy Enunwa @ CLE
  • K – Will Lutz @ ATL
  • DEF – Philadelphia vs. IND

His worst player was his defense, who still got him 7 points.  His kicker out-scored 6 of my guys, including Carson Wentz, who just couldn’t get it going against Indy.  Getting stuck with Adrian Peterson was actually a blessing in disguise, but I still went into Monday Night down 20 points.  He had two guys going, and all the FitzMagic in the world couldn’t get me over the hump.

Just brutal, all around.  His lineup is as stacked as they come for 2018.  The key for me was always going to be Mahomes feeding the ball to Tyreek Hill, who instead had easily the worst game of his season so far.  On the plus side, maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick is a viable QB2 going forward after all?  We’ll see how the Bucs respond now that Jameis Winston is off of his suspension.

I still like my team, but this shit is getting real frustrating.  I need to bank some early-season wins and instead I keep running into buzzsaws!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 2

  • See my Intro to understand what this is all about.
  • See my Draft Recap to learn where my team started.
  • See my Week 1 Recap to get all caught up.

My Rationale Beforehand

Predictably, panic has set in as King Flippy Nips looks to rebound from a heartbreaking week 1 defeat (blowing a 20-point lead because Derek Carr sucks).  The longer I go without winning a game, the more panic moves I’m going to make.

There’s been a little roster shuffling already.  For starters, Yahoo has let me put Greg Olsen in my IR spot, as he figures to be out for a number of weeks.  This freed up a spot which I used to put in a waiver claim on Nick Foles.  At this point, it’s anybody’s guess as to when Carson Wentz comes back, and I can’t rely on Dalton and Carr alone to get me through.  I need quarterbacks I can COUNT on.  Foles and the Eagles are going to Tampa this week and the Bucs’ defense doesn’t impress-ah me much (as Shania Twain might also agree).  After some first week struggles, I fully expect Foles to bounce back, so he’s going right into my starting lineup in place of Derek Carr (who is going to Denver in another impossible defensive matchup).

That leaves my other QB spot with Dalton, playing Thursday Night against the Ravens.  I don’t love it.  I have no data on this, but it feels like Dalton always shits the bed whenever he’s playing in a nationally-televised game (Bengals fans, back me up here!).  I’m trying not to over-react to the Ravens’ defense, as they had a cupcake matchup against the Bills last week, and literally any defense would’ve looked at least almost as good.  I’m sticking with Dalton even though I made another move this week, dropping my beloved sleeper Kenny Stills to pick up Joe Flacco.  Flacco had a great week 1 as well, but again, I’m trying not to over-react to the fact that he played against Buffalo’s defense.  I think Cincy’s defense is a lot better, plus the Bengals are at home.  So, for now, I’ll stash Flacco on my bench (also, not for nothing, but my opponent might’ve been in the market for someone like Flacco, as he only has 2 healthy & active QBs, and Mariota is questionable this week; so preventing my rival from filling his squad is always ideal), and mix-and-match between all my QBs going forward based on matchups until I can settle on two guys I can trust.

For what it’s worth, I have a ton of wide receivers on my roster.  I have to start Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen every week, and I really like Demaryius Thomas (who will be my FLEX guy for the foreseeable future).  After that, I had two receivers on my bench – Stills and Robert Woods – and I just like Woods a LITTLE bit more (plus he’s on an offense I know is going to be great all year, while I’m still unsure about Miami long term).  So, we’ll see.  I do expect Stills to be picked up by someone, but I think there’s a chance we’ve seen the best out of him already.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE – No one in my league picked up Stills on waivers, so I grabbed him as a free agent and re-waived Flacco.  The perfect crime!

Anyway, here’s my lineup:

  • QB1 – Andy Dalton vs. BAL
  • QB2 – Nick Foles @ TB
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill @ PIT
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen @ GB
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott vs. NYG
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson vs. IND
  • TE – Jordan Reed vs. IND
  • FLEX – Demaryius Thomas vs. OAK
  • K – Robbie Gould vs. DET
  • DEF – Chicago vs. SEA

My bench consists of Carr, Flacco, Wentz, Woods, Stills, and Leonard Fournette.

The big choice this week was AP over Fournette.  Well, given Peterson’s dominant week 1 performance, combined with the fact that Fournette got injured in last week’s game and didn’t practice all week, sort of made up my mind for me.  Fournette was slated to be a true Game Time Decision, and unfortunately his game started in the afternoon, while AP’s game started in the morning.  So, I had to go with the sure thing and just pray the Jags would give Fournette a week off to rest.  That being said, don’t believe for a minute that I didn’t obsessively check Twitter for any last-second updates on Fournette’s condition.

This week, my opponent is TheGangUnderperforms, which I’m assuming is some sort of It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia reference(?), crossed with his usual brand of self-effacing humor.  He’s the 9th place team in our league – having scored the second-fewest points in week 1 – so it sounds like his team’s name is as fitting as they come.  He’s the poor sap in our league who’s stuck with Le’Veon Bell, with the unfortunate kick in the crotch that he failed to draft James Conner (even though, in real life, he’s a big Steelers fan and should’ve known better).  I should also point out, before week 1, I offered him a trade of Adrian Peterson and Robert Woods for Bell (who made it known he wasn’t going to come back to the team in time for the game) and he shot me down!  It must be his immense pride that has prevented him from crawling back to me asking for a re-do on that decision.  When will Bell return to the Steelers?  Maybe never!  And here I’ll be, reaping the rewards of a rejuvenated Adrian Peterson (with the security blanket of a Robert Woods on my bench for potential BYE week & injury fill-ins).

In spite of some injuries and depth issues on his bench, TheGangUnderperforms still has a pretty talented squad that is FULLY capable of wiping the floor with my ass.  In the next section, we’ll get to the results.

***

Week 2 Results

The week got off to a tremendous start!  Andy Dalton is a wonderland!  He nearly doubled the points of Flacco and absolutely doubled his projected point total.  On top of that, my opponent’s kicker – Justin Tucker – only managed 7 points, three below expected.  I started the week a coin flip, and after Thursday I was a 65% favorite heading into the weekend.

TheGangUnderperforms’ lineup looked like this:

  • QB1 – Ben Roethlisberger vs. KC
  • QB2 – Marcus Mariota vs. HOU
  • WR1 – Julio Jones vs. CAR
  • WR2 – Larry Fitzgerald @ LAR
  • RB1 – Kareem Hunt @ PIT
  • RB2 – Jamaal Williams vs. MIN
  • TE – Gronk @ JAX
  • FLEX – Emmanuel Sanders vs. OAK
  • K – Justin Tucker @ CIN
  • DEF – N.Y. Jets vs. MIN

It looked marginally dicey early when Ben Roethlisberger threw non-stop on a pathetic Chiefs defense; fortunately I was saved because Mariota didn’t play and my opponent didn’t have any room for any other QBs on his roster (aside from the rookies he has on his bench who aren’t starting yet, and Jameis Winston, who’s still suspended).  Nevertheless, Roethlisberger scored enough points to cover both QB spots, as he pushed 50 on the day.

TheGangUnderperforms didn’t have any help anywhere else though.  Gronk and Fitzgerald had bad days, Julio stayed true to the team name and underperformed, and everyone else was just sort of average.

My team, meanwhile, did even better than the week before!

Foles and Carr were about the same, so that didn’t bite me in the ass as both had around 20.  My receivers – Thielen and Hill – absolutely torched the competition once again, for a combined 50+ points.  My kicker doubled his kicker; my Chicago defense had a field day; Zeke had a solid game.  And, while AP, Demaryius, and Reed didn’t impress, they also gave me SOMETHING, in the range of 6-10 points.

All told, it was a 194.59 – 130.90 drubbing!

I’m currently in 3rd place with a 1-1 record, though I have the second-most points in the league behind the guy who kept Mahomes, Rivers, and Kamara (clearly getting more out of his keepers than anyone else in the league).  As chance would have it, I have to go up against that juggernaut this very upcoming week.  Luckily, it looks like I get Carson Wentz back, as well as (hopefully) Leonard Fournette.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 1

See my Intro to understand what this is all about.

See my Draft Recap to see where we are heading into the first week of the season.

I’ll be the first to admit I obsess WAY TOO MUCH about fantasy football.  Thinking about my roster, listening to podcasts, reading articles, pouring over the rankings of other people, scouring the waiver wire for potential pick-ups, conjuring trades to try and swindle my friends out of their elite players.  My productivity in general takes a HUGE hit during the football season for those reasons and many others, but I’m no more insane than I am in the lead-up to Week 1.

It’s no more or less important than any other regular season week, but it FEELS like the most important game of the season.  At the same time, I’ve been trying my best in recent years not to tinker too much with my roster before I’ve actually had a chance to see these guys play.  I mean, if I liked these guys enough to draft them a week ago, why am I sitting here second-guessing myself before they’ve done anything to convince me they’re no good?

Last year, I think I managed to go all the way through the first week before making a roster change; this year I wasn’t as strong.  But, I feel I had a good reason:  the Bears made a huge trade for Khalil Mack over the weekend – the day AFTER I drafted Baltimore’s defense – so I used my relatively high waiver priority (3rd in the league) to swap defenses.

My draft strategy this year was simple:  wait until the very last minute to draft a defense.  There are a few you have to feel good about – the Rams, the Jags, the Vikings, maybe the Eagles – but a lot of the time, defense is about matchups.  Likewise, there are countless stories of defenses that came out of nowhere to lead the fantasy league in points, just as there are countless stories of supposedly-elite defenses succumbing to age or injury or simple over-rating.  Why get caught up in the fervor of taking one of the top pre-season defenses early in the draft when you can get one pretty close to just as good at the end of the draft or on waivers after the first week.  So, in this league, I picked up the Ravens’ defense, because they’re going up against Buffalo in Week 1, and that felt like a good one to stream against until some other team popped out as one to go with from Week 2 onward (or, if I got lucky, and the Ravens’ defense was really good in general – and not just against the Bills – then I just got them in the next-to-last round while the suckers in my league wasted precious earlier draft picks on the same quality).

The thing is, even heading into the draft, I liked Chicago’s defense as a possible sleeper.  I think Vic Fangio is an excellent defensive coordinator – on a tier just below Wade Phillips – and I seemed to remember them really going hard after young talent in the draft on this side of the ball.  They seemed poised like a breakout candidate BEFORE trading for Mack; now that they have him, and his sack potential, I like the Bears enough to make them my ONLY defense.

Also, not for nothing, but I like my bench players an awful lot (heading into Week 1, my bench includes:  Greg Olsen, Carson Wentz, Robert Woods, Adrian Peterson, and Kenny Stills).  I don’t want to drop ANY of those guys at the moment, as I feel like they could all play important roles on my team this year.  If I did have to drop someone, it would likely be one of those two receivers, so seeing how they both look in the first week is going to be critical in my line of thinking going forward (gun to my head:  I’d probably choose Woods over Stills, as I like the Rams’ offense more than Miami’s; but Stills could end up as the Dolphins’ best receiver this year, while the Rams have a lot of guys who will divide Goff’s attention).

Anyway, how I plan to do this is I’m going to write up my thought process heading into the week ahead of time, that way my rationale won’t be tainted by events that already happened.  You’re going to know exactly what I’m thinking heading into this week, because I’m writing it before the games start.  Then, I’m going to write a section after the fact, letting you know how my week went.  So, without further ado:

My Rationale Beforehand

Here’s my roster for Week 1:

  • QB1 – Derek Carr vs. LAR
  • QB2 – Andy Dalton @ IND
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill @ LAC
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen vs. SF
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott @ CAR
  • RB2 – Leonard Fournette @ NYG
  • TE – Jordan Reed @ AZ
  • FLEX – Demaryius Thomas vs. SEA
  • K – Robbie Gould @ MIN
  • DEF – Chicago @ GB

Obviously, if Wentz was healthy, he’d be my QB1 and I’d probably end up sitting Carr this week.  On waivers, the available QBs (at the time of this writing) are Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and both Bills quarterbacks.  Of those guys, I might marginally prefer Taylor to Carr based on matchups (I could see Carr getting in trouble against that Rams defense, while Taylor is always careful with the football and the Steelers don’t really pose much of a threat to make his life miserable), but not enough to make a roster change.  I have a lot riding on Carr this year, based on the fact that I drafted him so high and because I believe the Raiders will be throwing a lot, so I kinda need him to work out for me early in the season.

I don’t have a lot to say about my starting WRs and RBs; they seem pretty self-explanatory.  I will say that I’m pretty confident about my FLEX guy as well, as I think Thomas could have a field day against this Seahawks defense.  For what it’s worth, I like Emmanuel Sanders a lot this year, but not particularly in this game.  The Broncos tend to move Thomas around quite a bit, and honestly I don’t see him going to Griffin’s side as much as Sanders.  I don’t think they play Thomas in the slot very much, so that negates Justin Coleman’s impact.  If I’m right, and Thomas is lining up opposite of Griffin’s side on the other end, I think 150 yards and a TD or two is well within his capabilities.  If I wasn’t playing Thomas, I would’ve gone with AP, but I’d like to take a wait-and-see approach with the veteran running back before I commit to giving him regular time in my fantasy lineup.

My biggest sticking point is in my TE spot, where I’ve already waffled once and it wouldn’t shock me if I waffled again.

Here’s the deal:  I drafted Olsen in the 8th round.  As I noted previously, I didn’t intend to use that high of a pick on a tight end this year, seemingly content with taking the leftover scraps.  But, Olsen was sitting there, and I would’ve felt like a fool if I’d let him drop any further.  He’s obviously a tremendous talent, both in fantasy and in real life, and in a usual circumstance, I’d be happy to start him against the Cowboys.  But, then in the 12th round, Jordan Reed was sitting there.  He’s got Alex Smith throwing to him.  He’s in an offense that utilizes the tight end to a great extent even before Alex Smith got there.  And, it’s week 1.  He’s healthy!  He’s probably as healthy as he’s ever going to be.  Indeed, I wouldn’t be shocked if this was the last chance I got to start him, that’s how fragile he is!  He’s going up against the Cardinals, which feels like a juicy matchup, and they’re on the road, so I expect the Redskins will need to throw the ball more than they would if they were at home and more likely to be sitting on a lead in the 4th quarter.  Ultimately, I feel like there’s better touchdown potential for someone like Reed over someone like Olsen, factoring in everything around both players.  The Panthers just have more weapons on offense, and I don’t believe Cam will be as inclined to look for his TE in the red zone as Smith will be.  We’ll see; I have a feeling I’m going to regret whatever I do here.

Also, thinking long term, I fucked up when I took Reed, because both players have Week 4 byes, which means if they both stay healthy between now and then, I either have to drop a really productive guy, or I’ll have to roster a third tight end for a week (or I guess I could take a 0 at that spot for one game, but that seems idiotic that early in the season).

Anyway, that’s that.  Below, read about how my fantasy week went.

***

Week 1 Results

Well, I didn’t want to believe it, but Derek Carr fucked me ALREADY!

I had a 20-point lead heading into Monday Night.  I had Carr left to go; usually, when you’re winning and you have a quarterback still to play, you’re in pretty excellent shape.  I want to say I was an 80% favorite heading into the night.  My opponent, Crazy N8’s Prostates, had Marvin Jones and the Rams’ kicker.  It was a lock, right?

Not so fucking fast.

If Carr had just thrown a single TD, I would’ve won.  If he’d just thrown TWO interceptions – instead of three – I would’ve won.  If Legatron had just missed one of those field goals (he ended up with 17 points in total), I would’ve won.  Instead, I’m a 3-point loser and everything is meaningless.

For a while there, I was looking like a genius with the Bears defense.  I also looked like a fucking boner, because remember how I had to drop Baltimore’s defense to pick up the Bears?  Well, not only did they go off (to the tune of 31 points in our league, way over their expected 17.12), but they went off FOR MY OPPONENT (who picked them up and played them against me!).  At one time, with Aaron Rodgers out of the game, the Bears had 35 points, but then the Packers started scoring, so that total fell to 20 (still well above the expected 9.06 Yahoo projected).

My big decision of Jordan Reed over Greg Olsen ended up panning out somewhat, with Olsen being the one to leave his game with an injury.  Reed beat Olsen by 9.5 points, so bully for me.

That Fournette injury is obviously a concern.  He was on his way to a monster day, but I guess his injury woes aren’t behind him.  Now, every time I have him in my lineup, I have to wonder if he’s going to get me 30 points or 3 points.  As long as Adrian Peterson is healthy – and in a plus matchup – I really have to consider putting him in there more often.

Demaryius Thomas acquitted himself well as my FLEX guy.  Predictably, the Seahawks’ defense posed little threat.  The bigger threat is Keenum’s rapport with Emmanuel Sanders, who went OFF in that game.  Still, my value pick is looking solid so far.

My biggest shining star was Tyreek Hill, who blew up to the tune of 46.10 points this week (he led all non-Fitzmagic players in my league).  He almost pulled my ass out of the fire, but you just can’t overcome a 3-point week out of your top available QB.

Crazy N8’s Prostates’ lineup looked like this:

  • QB1 – Kirk Cousins vs. SF
  • QB2 – Alex Smith @ AZ
  • WR1 – ODB vs. JAX
  • WR2 – Keenan Allen vs. KC
  • RB1 – Shady McCoy @ BAL
  • RB2 – David Johnson vs. WAS
  • TE – Travis Kelce @ LAC
  • FLEX – Marvin Jones vs. NYJ
  • K – Greg Zuerlein @ OAK
  • DEF – Baltimore vs. BUF

I ended up being the highest scorer of all the losers and had the third-highest points in the league this week.  Pretty sad state of affairs, all things considered.  Carson Wentz can’t come back soon enough.  Starting to think about picking up Fitzpatrick.  Things are looking bleak already!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: The All-Important Draft

See the first post in this series for what I’m talking about here.

Well, we did it.  I drafted my team and, if I do say so myself, I think I did a pretty good job!  Of course, I always say so myself, because why wouldn’t I?  I brought in these players, I must like them to some extent!  Because they’ve yet to disappoint me.

It’s all downhill from here.

As I talked about last time, my 3 keepers are Wentz, Fournette, and Elliott.  Since I had my RBs set, I didn’t have to focus on them too much in the early going.  So, after the first three rounds took care of the keepers, I went to work bolstering my WR unit.

I picked 8th, in every round.  I won’t list out every single pick, but I’ll at least show you the first round, to give you an idea of the players we had available:

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Saquon Barkley
  3. Melvin Gordon
  4. Cam Newton
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. Davante Adams
  7. Matthew Stafford

So, those were the guys taken right before me.  Both of the top QBs that were left out there, the top 3 RBs, and my two favorite WRs.  I was bound and determined to get a receiver; the available ones were:  A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Gronk (technically a TE, but still), T.Y. Hilton, and Tyreek Hill.  I went with Hill.  I like Mahomes a lot, I like that offense, I think Hill is a stud in the prime of his career who will be the focal point of that passing game (as opposed to the tight end-centric offense run under Alex Smith), and I just believe he has the highest upside to really blow out some games.

I should point out that all of those other receivers I listed off were taken by the time I drafted again.  I still wanted to go WR – to knock that position out of the way – even though I desperately needed a second QB (and, one might argue, a FIRST QB, since who knows when Wentz will be ready).  Adam Thielen was sitting there and he felt like an obvious pick, so I took him (the other WRs were Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, and Doug Baldwin; I think I made clearly the best choice).

By my next pick, all of those receivers were gone, as well as the next two best tight ends (Kelce and Ertz), so I went into the QB well.  No more QBs were taken after Cam & Stafford, so I had my pick of the shit-filled kitty litter.  I went with Derek Carr, upside over recent success.  I think he’ll be a transformed player under Jon Gruden and even if the Raiders are a terrible team, I think they’ll be behind in a lot of games and throwing the ball a ton.  Plus, they don’t really have a defined #1 RB (a respectable committee led by Beastmode), so I think this could be great for me.  The other QBs available were Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Blake “The Bort” Bortles, Dak Prescott, and Case Keenum.  Ben is obviously better, but I can’t trust him to play a full season.  I might regret not taking Alex Smith though.

When it came back to me, in Round 7, Demaryius Thomas was still sitting there at the top of the Yahoo rankings.  I needed a flex guy, and honestly the value I was getting for Denver’s #1 receiver was too good to pass up.  I might’ve gotten the steal of the draft, or he might be the bust that everyone is expecting.  We’ll see, I’ll take my chances.  By taking him, though, I missed out on Chris Carson, his teammate Emmanuel Sanders, Jacksonville’s defense, the Rams’ defense, Allen Robinson, and Corey Davis, among others.

In Round 8, I took the best tight end available (who was also among the best overall players available), Greg Olsen.  My plan going into the draft was to wait until one of the last three rounds to take a tight end (as well as a defense and a kicker), but Olsen is elite, and the drop-off in tight ends was significant (plus, like I said, he was one of the top players remaining).  I missed out on Marquise Goodwin, Mark Ingram, and Minnesota’s defense, among others.

Next, I started filling my bench, with Robert Woods leading the way.  At this point, I still haven’t grabbed a third RB, and that might be my undoing if I have injuries to my top two guys.  A run on RBs went right after I took Woods, with guys like Lynch, Peyton Barber, Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson, Dion Lewis, and Carlos Hyde all going off the board.

In Round 10, I went back to QB, because it’s always smart to have a competent third (in case of injuries, BYEs, or if Derek Carr really does suck), so I bought low on Andy Dalton.  In Round 10 of a 2-QB league, I think I got really good value on this one too.  Plus, I think everyone is severely underrating him this year, and I like him to bounce back in a big way.  I passed on Jameis Winson, because I can’t have his 3-game suspension hanging over my head if I don’t know Wentz’s status those weeks and I didn’t want to have to roster 4 QBs.  I also passed on guys like Mitch Trubisky, Mayfield & Darnold, Ryan Tannehill, and Eli Manning, which I’m okay with.

Next up, Adrian Peterson was still there, so I grabbed him.  I don’t know if that’s going to work out for me, but he’s a #1 RB in the 11th round, so beggars can’t be choosers.  The other RBs available were all backups or in time-shares (Latavius Murray, Sony Michel, James Conner, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, and Marlon Mack, among others).  If worse comes to worse and I need an RB off waivers, I’m sure I can find someone, so I’m not too worried about it.  If best comes to best, then in AP I have a 1,000-yard rusher on a good offense.  (I will say that I’m disappointed that Will Fuller V was taken 2 picks after this; I think he’s a stud).

In Round 12, Jordan Reed was still there, so I grabbed him.  Yep, the guy who was going to wait and take whatever TE was left over in the final rounds … ended up drafting TWO of them.  But, when healthy, Reed is a Top 3 TE.  And now he has Alex Smith throwing to him, the ultimate in TE-friendly QBs.  Plus, Greg Olsen is getting up there, so it’s nice to have some TE insurance.

In the lucky 13th round, I grabbed Kenny Stills.  All the podcasts I was listening to in the week leading up to the draft cited this guy as a potential break-out player.  Tannehill apparently loves him, he’s a target monster, and with Landry out of the picture, he should be the team’s #1.  I am CRUSHING this draft with all the value I’m getting!

In the final two rounds, I finally had to go grab a defense and a kicker.  I drafted Baltimore’s defense in the 14th, and ‘Frisco’s Robbie Gould in the 15th.  Whatever.

Yahoo’s stupid grading system put me in the middle of the pack with a B grade.  It hated my Derek Carr pick (about 6 rounds too early according to ADP?), but it loves my Thielen pick, as well as my RB keepers.  My team is the 2nd oldest in the league, which might be troubling; then again, my tendency is to draft a lot of young guys and where has it gotten me?  Nowhere near the championship trophy, that’s for damn sure.

So, we’ll see how it goes.  My schedule is one of the toughest in the league, so that’s fucking great.  Then again, why should I trust Yahoo’s grading?

Seahawks Win Yet Another Seahawky Game

It was just one of those fucking things, you know?  Be happy with the victory and try to forget about it.

Except, how can we, what with Russell Wilson’s ankle injury sure to dominate the local conversation this week?  I’ll say this about the play:  it sure LOOKED like an accident, the way Ndamukong Suh hit him, causing his ankle to twist an unnatural way, but that big fucking galoot – known for more than his fair share of intentionally dirty hits – sure has a knack for injuring guys.  When you’re as athletic and as talented as Suh, there’s a way to make that play where it doesn’t hobble our quarterback.  Likewise, when you’re as athletic and as talented as Suh, you probably learn new ways to make dirty hits look “accidental”.  So, fuck that guy, I hope his ACL snaps real soon.

By all rights, the Seahawks should’ve lost that game.  On top of the fact that Russell couldn’t move after his ankle injury, the team in general couldn’t run the ball whatsoever.  That made us one-dimensional for most of the game, and with our makeshift O-Line against their front four full of studs, we had to be extra careful in the passing game, often limiting us to shorter, quicker throws.  Since we’re not the San Diego Chargers, and our quarterback isn’t Philip Rivers, that’s not exactly our forte, and we struggled accordingly.  By and large, we weren’t getting open in the conventional ways we normally get open, which left us grasping at straws on third down.  It wasn’t until that final drive where we hit on a couple of 4th down conversions, but we pretty much started out that drive in 4-down territory, so that likely dictated our play-calling on 3rd down.

Defensively, we were as savage as I can remember.  But, again, PROBABLY should’ve lost that game.  Kenny Stills got behind everyone, only to drop what would’ve been a HUGE touchdown early in the game.  Earl Thomas struggled like I can’t remember him ever struggling before.  There were more missed tackles than I like to see.  But, for the most part, the defense was on point.  The Dolphins had five 3 & Outs and had to punt 7 times on the day.  There was another critical stop by Kam Chancellor early in the game on 4th down that at the very least prevented them from scoring 3 points.  That’s on top of a mammoth blocked field goal by Cassius Marsh early in the 4th quarter to keep our 3-point lead intact.

Indeed, the way the defense was going, I wondered if we could hold on and make it a 6-3 final.  But, of course, as soon as I started to seriously maintain that line of thinking, midway through the 4th quarter, the Dolphins finally managed a competent scoring drive to take a 10-6 lead.  I’d be curious to know if, defensively, we played that drive any differently than we had up to that point.  From my naked eye and limited football acumen, it didn’t look totally out of character:  lots of zone, a blitz or two sprinkled in.  But, it was almost shocking the way the Dolphins were able to get in the endzone, considering how much we’d dominated them to that point.  It’s not fair to expect a defense to be perfect for a full game, but there you go again:  another lead blown by that unit late in the game, in remarkably easy fashion.

I was pretty sick about the whole thing once Miami went ahead.  The Seahawks got the ball back with a little over 4 minutes to go in the game, and with the way Wilson was immobilized, and the way our offense had performed in general, it wasn’t looking likely we’d go down there and score a touchdown.  Then, I remembered I was the only person left in our Eliminator pool who didn’t pick the Seahawks this week, and I knew the gambling gods wouldn’t let me win it all in Week 1 (the fact that I had the Cardinals, who would go on to lose later that night, was further proof that the gambling gods hate me to no end).

Sure enough, the drive started out bumpy as hell, but the Seahawks put themselves in position to win it, and did so with a nifty little fade to Doug Baldwin on the left side of the endzone.  We’d go on to miss the extra point – because apparently that’s what the NFL likes:  ineptitude – but it would go on to not matter, because our defense quickly rediscovered our edge and made mincemeat of Ryan Tannehill.

Christine Michael got the start in this one, and looked okay, but also looked like he biffed a couple of assignments.  Thomas Rawls nearly matched him touch for touch, in spite of the discrepency in snaps (Michael out-snapped him by a wide margin), and while neither of their numbers were all that impressive, I liked the way they looked together.  Rawls will get you those difficult yards Marshawn Lynch used to get; Michael will slash and dash for large chunks of yardage, and is the consummate home run threat at tailback.  Just when a defense figures out how to stop one guy, you bring in the other for a total change of pace.  It does nothing for me in fantasy – as long as both are healthy, they both remain non-starters for fantasy purposes – but as a fan, it’s as much as I could’ve hoped for, what with Lynch’s retirement and all.

Doug Baldwin, on the other hand, is a guy you MUST start in fantasy, as he’s definitely Russell Wilson’s go-to guy, particularly in or near the red zone.  Yesterday, he caught 9 balls for 92 yards and that game-winning touchdown, and I think it’s just the start of a legitimate Pro Bowl season.

Tyler Lockett didn’t do a whole lot, and had a couple drops (one of them punched out by Byron Maxwell, but even then, had he caught it cleanly to begin with, he might’ve been able to hold onto it through contact).  He’ll need to do better, as Wilson looked his way early and often on third down in this one, resulting in a couple drives being stalled.

Jimmy Graham got into it a little bit.  I didn’t see him at all in the first half, but he played pretty regularly in the second half, though he looked like more of a decoy than anything else.  Nevertheless, he did catch one ball on that touchdown drive to get us a first down en route to the endzone.  Assuming he feels no ill effects from the game, I look forward to his re-emergence as the team continues to bring him slowly back.

C.J. Prosise had a nifty catch and run for a first down early in the game, but had to leave with a sprained wrist.  I don’t know what that means for his availability going forward – he might miss a game or two – but it sure limits us on third down.  Where’s Troymaine Pope when you need him?  Oh, right, with the Jets.

Defensively, I don’t know where to start, except yes I do, and it’s Bobby Wagner.  Oh man, WHAT A GAME!  He didn’t lead the team in tackles, but the ones he made sure counted, as all 6 were solo tackles.  He also had a couple QB hits, and they weren’t cheapies.  That’s what I talk about when I talk about a guy making his presence felt.  Wagner had his hands all over this game.

K.J. Wright was the leading tackler with 11, and he too had a QB hit, as well as a sack, and a tackle for loss.  The rest of the NFL has been slow to catch on to his greatness, but he’s the main reason why you’ll hear people around the Seahawks say this team has the best linebacking corps in the league.  He’s also the main reason why you don’t totally dismiss those people out of hand for their homerism.  Wright and Wagner, as far as one-two punches at the linebacker position are concerned – particularly with the way most teams ONLY play two linebackers, with how pass-wacky the league has become – are as good as any one-two linebacker punches in the league.

Richard Sherman stood out, one for his obvious dominance in coverage, as I don’t recall him letting anyone catch anything around him, but also for his tackling.  He made a couple of the most impressive open-field tackles in the game, where had he missed, they would’ve gone for huge gains.  Never take for granted Sherman’s tackling; it’s truly a precious and wonderful thing.

DeShawn Shead gets his own set of kudos.  The whole secondary played pretty well, aside from Earl on a few bad plays that stuck out like a sore thumb, but Shead looked like the real deal Holyfield.  The L.O.B. has had a number of quality cornerbacks opposite Richard Sherman.  Brandon Browner famously made the Pro Bowl in 2011 and helped give this unit its edge in its infancy, Byron Maxwell replaced Browner and helped lead us to a championship in 2013 before going on to a huge free agent payday, but Shead might be the best of them all.  He broke up a couple passes, and was an all-around force the likes of which I haven’t seen since teams stopped trying to challenge Richard Sherman in 2014.  I’m fully on the bandwagon now; look for Shead to have a HUGE year this year.

The D-Line as a whole stepped up in a big way.  Bennett, Avril, Clark, and even Marsh all had sacks on the day.  The Nascar lineup looks as fast and disruptive as it was in 2013.  And, the interior didn’t disappoint, holding the Dolphins to only 64 yards on 3.2 yards per carry.  Also, hat tip to Jarran Reed for two big batted balls at the line of scrimmage.  I hope that’s, like, a thing he’s randomly, weirdly good at, because it would be huge for our interception numbers this year.

Also, let’s go ahead and give kudos to Marsh again, as well as Mike Morgan on special teams.  Marsh had that blocked field goal, as well as a couple monster hits on returns.  And, if it wasn’t Marsh, it was Morgan who was always around the runner with the ball, ensuring his immediate introduction to the turf.  Can’t say enough about how well we covered punts and kickoffs in this one.

Look, all in all, I’m as not-thrilled as the rest of you with how the game played out.  Obviously, it would’ve been a million times worse had the Seahawks fallen short at the end, but there are positives to take away.  Defensively, in particular.  Reasons for hope on offense include the fact that Wilson was never actually knocked out of the game.  So, the ankle injury can’t be THAT bad.  By the same token, he couldn’t really run on it, and that sucks every dick in the free world when you think about how we’re playing the Rams next week.  Looking better offensively than we did against the Dolphins should be completely off the table right now.  Even winning this game at all is dodgy at best.  Getting Wilson through the game without making the ankle worse needs to be our top priority.  From there, we get a nothing game against the 49ers, followed by another fucking massive D-Line with the Jets.  What was once looking like a viable 4-0 start now has 2-2 written all over it.  I guess the early BYE week this year will actually come in handy for once.

Other reasons for optimism, if you really want to grasp at some straws, is that after this initial 4-game set, we don’t really face a dominating D-Line again until December, when we face the Panthers.  So, you know, we’ve got that going for us.

If by some miracle, we’re able to keep Wilson upright – which, hint hint Darrell Bevell, is going to require you to leave your tight ends in to chip A LOT MORE than you did against the Dolphins – the rest of the skill position players look up to the task of picking up our hobbled QB1.  Fingers crossed.

How Will The Loss Of Thurmond & Browner Affect The Seahawks, Really?

Well, in the short term, there’s no difference when it comes with Browner.  He was going to miss a few games regardless.  His loss was always going to test our depth, because that’s what losses like this do.

However, having Thurmond suspended is another thing entirely.  It’s rare to have a cornerback with near-elite speed who can move from outside to inside and not miss a beat.  I actually thought he was struggling to start the season, but as the year has progressed, his skillset has really shined.  I think some people are making a bigger deal out of him replacing Browner for a few series here and there; in the long run, we play a lot of 3-cornerback sets, so Thurmond was going to get his playing time anyway.  Nevertheless, rare is the position on this or any football team where a starter would be knocked out and I wouldn’t worry one iota about the next man up.  Thurmond was that security blanket, and now he’s on ice for the next four weeks.

When you take numbers 2 and 3 out of the equation, then you’re left with numbers 4, 5 and 6.  In this case, Byron Maxwell, Jeremy Lane, and Player X From Off The Street.  Maxwell has been good.  His playing time has increased quite a bit this year and he has acquitted himself nicely.  I trust him fully against the likes of the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals as a #2 corner (presumably with Richard Sherman handling #1 duties).  Against New Orleans, though?  With Drew Brees elevating the talent level of the receivers around him?  I’m a little shakier.  Moreover, with Jeremy Lane as the new #3 … I dunno.

I like Lamp Lane.  He’s a top-notch special teamer.  I’m less familiar with him on the defensive side of the ball, though, which is worrisome.  I’m seeing him matched up a lot with Lance Moore and it kinda scares the bejesus out of me.

Truth be told, I just see matchup problems all day in this game.  I think a guy like Kenny Stills – a burner who does the bulk of his work down field – could make someone like Maxwell look silly.  I think Colston is someone we should probably easily shut down, but he’s still a pro and he’s still their best receiver.  He’s going to draw his fair share of the coverage.  Then, of course, you’ve got Jimmy Graham.  I would assume Kam Chancellor is assigned this major task, with possibly Earl Thomas taking over if Graham wins that matchup too often.

Which brings us to Sproles.  Good God!  If Sproles is back for this game, THEN WHAT?  Bruce Irvin?  K.J. Wright?  And on top of all that, we have to worry about stopping a running game that’s always a little bit better than people give it credit for?

The Saints can beat you any number of ways.  That’s the point I’m trying to get at.  They were always going to be a dangerous opponent.  Take away Browner and Thurmond, though, and they’re damn near lethal.

I’ve seen this point made on Twitter and probably elsewhere, and I think it’s valid:  I wasn’t worried about the Seahawks beating the Saints before we lost Browner and Thurmond, so why should I be worried now?  Indeed, they’re just two guys.  In a vacuum, if you picked two random Seahawks not named Russell Wilson and forced them to sit out, I don’t think we’d be too concerned.

BUT!  When you pick two random Seahawks from the same position, then you’re playing with fire.  I still think our secondary is the best in football, as it stands right now; but lose one more guy?  Like, say, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, or Kam Chancellor?  Now, you go from elite to average.  An elite unit like that can really mask a lot of deficiencies elsewhere on a defense.  Make that unit less-than-elite, and all of a sudden those deficiencies come front and center.  We always think about the loss of Browner and Thurmond in terms of how it affects coverage down field; we tend to forget how that’s going to affect the pass rush.  Or coverage out of the backfield.  Or gap assignments or our ability to tackle well.  How will the loss of these two affect the rest of the group mentally?  Will they truly treat it as a Next Man Up scenario?  Or, will other guys start to press and try to do too much?  Will they forget their assignments because they’re so worried about what the new guys are doing?

I have a bad feeling about this.  In the long run, I don’t think it hurts us too bad, because I still think we’re good enough to win the rest of our games after Monday night.  I still think we lock down our division and at least a Top 2 seed.  But, I can’t help feeling like our home winning streak comes to an end.  I hope I’m wrong.  Luckily for all of us, I frequently am.