For posterity’s sake, I’m just going to lay it all out. As I start to write this post, it is Monday afternoon, January 26th. I’ll be honest, so far this season, I don’t know if I’ve even seen a full game involving the New England Patriots. They’ve kind of had a boring playoff run through the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos; nobody got what they really wanted, which was a Patriots/Bills matchup. From what I’ve gleaned from those games, they were relatively low-scoring, relatively one-sided, and New England managed to come out on top with key plays at the end.

I’ve seen even less of this team in the regular season. They just weren’t on nationally-televised games all that often, and when they were, I was probably distracted by my phone or something. Regardless, I’m not familiar with this team. So, I’m going to kind of walk through my thoughts on this team as the week goes along. If I learn anything new, I’ll throw it in the post as I go, and maybe by the time it’s posted, we’ll have a proper document.

For starters, they’re coached by Mike Vrabel, who is an excellent head coach. The OC is Josh McDaniels, who has been a notoriously mediocre head coach, but an excellent offensive coordinator. This is, I believe, his second stint in New England, as he ran the offense for a bunch of successful Tom Brady-led teams. The coaching staff is top notch, great schemers and great motivators.

Drake Maye is the quarterback. He’s in his second season, after a rough rookie campaign (not for him personally, but for the team, as they won only a small handful of games). In 2025, he was a viable MVP candidate, and it’s not hard to see why. Almost 4,400 yards, 72% completions, 8.9 yards per attempt, 31 TDs, only 8 INTs, 113.5 passer rating, and throw in 450 rushing yards, good for 4.4 yards per attempt. He’s the straw that stirs the drink, and at this rate – if he keeps it up – he will finish his career as a Hall of Famer.

The running game is okay. Rhamondre Stevenson was the starter, but has largely been supplanted by rookie TreVeyon Henderson, who has the higher average per attempt (5.1 vs. 4.6). That being said, Stevenson has taken over starter’s duties in the playoffs, getting over double the carries. He’s the veteran, more-trusted back (even though, I’m pretty sure, he’s had a fumbling problem throughout his career). Neither has done much in these playoffs, as the defenses have stiffened up considerably in the last three games.

In the receiving corps, Stefon Diggs has the quietest 1,000-yard season I’ve ever seen. I knew he was there, but he was never a viable fantasy option. He only cracked the endzone 4 times, but he’s a veteran presence who can make a big catch for his young quarterback. Hunter Henry is next on the list; very workmanlike tight end, leads the team with 7 receiving TDs. Kayshon Boutte is the young deep threat, averaging 16.7 yards per catch. That’s pretty much all we have to worry about in the passing game.

I know one guy on their defense, and it’s Christian Gonzalez who – when healthy – is a lockdown corner. I don’t know if he’s, like, best in the league kind of scary, but he’s very good, and could pose a problem if he opts to shadow JSN. I don’t know a lot of guys who do that anymore, so that’ll be interesting to learn about. If he does, I still expect the Seahawks will find a way to get JSN open. But, obviously, that also means I wouldn’t expect JSN to crack 100 yards receiving.

I’ve also heard good things about rookie (left?) tackle Will Campbell. I’m also reading that he stunk against the Broncos? So, I dunno.

The narrative around the 2025 Pats is that they’ve played the weakest schedule in football. Aside from two divisional games against the Bills … there’s a loss to the Steelers and a win over the Panthers, and that’s it for playoff teams they played in the regular season. And, they got a pretty cheesy run through the playoffs, avoiding both the Bills and Jags, while facing Denver’s backup quarterback who hadn’t started a game in two years. You have to wonder if C.J. Stroud didn’t totally melt down – or if they had switched to Davis Mills at halftime – would the Pats even be here? So, I’d say the criticism is valid. Doesn’t mean the Pats aren’t good. It’s just a valid point!

The stats show the Pats have a Top 10 defense in yards and points. They might be marginally better at stopping the run than the pass. But, at this point, it’s the playoffs, you’re going to see good defenses every week. There isn’t any one thing about them that scares you. The Pats are shockingly low in their sack totals, which is encouraging. They’re +3 in takeaways; the Seahawks are -3 in takeaways. Middle of the pack in generating turnovers, but better than average in avoiding turnovers on offense.

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I’m not going to sit here and go through every single game the Patriots played this year, because it’s a waste of time. I don’t know their injury situation this season, so why would I look back two or three months ago, when they might be an entirely different team than they are now? Also, again, their regular season schedule was largely dogshit; what do I care how they looked against the Jets or Dolphins or whatever?

I think the wild card game against the Chargers is pretty instructive. I don’t know how similar the Seahawks are to the Chargers, but I could fathom many similarities. Good quarterback, offense that wants to establish the run, solid defense. But, on the flipside, the Chargers obviously had a lot of O-Line injuries that set them back. And, all around, their roster isn’t as deep or talented as Seattle’s.

The Pats’ defense worked them for 6 sacks, a fumble, and a miserable 2 for 13 on 3rd/4th downs en route to a 16-3 victory. To their credit, the Chargers’ defense sacked Maye 5 times, forced a fumble, and got a pick. But, the Pats were 5 for 12 on 3rd/4th downs, and they generated over 170 yards more in offense. The Chargers failed to take advantage of a pick at the goalline, getting turned away on downs, and pretty much had trouble moving the ball all game. Really solid effort by New England’s defense.

I don’t know how much you can get from the Divisional Round game against the Texans. C.J. Stroud had 4 picks, including a pick-six, and there was a lost fumble in the running game. If the Seahawks have five turnovers in the Super Bowl, yeah, the Pats are probably going to win.

Stroud was also sacked 3 times, and while the Texans were a respectable 8 for 19 on 3rd/4th down, timing was everything. They were down two scores relatively late in the fourth quarter – at a point in the game where they really needed to be in 4-down territory on every set of downs – and took a huge sack on third down. Which meant it was 4th & 18 and they HAD to punt. Obviously, the Houston defense was good enough to win that game and take that team to the Super Bowl. But, this reminded me a lot of the first Rams/Seahawks game with the four Darnold picks. Except Stroud was so bad even when he wasn’t turning the ball over that they had no shot to even keep it close.

Then, there’s the AFC Championship Game in Denver. I mean, what are you gonna do? The Broncos had one huge pass play for 52 yards that ultimately led to their only points of the game. They had the opportunity in the second quarter to go up 10-0, but eschewed the field goal to try a pass on 4th & 1. New England ended up getting their only touchdown after a sack-fumble deep in Broncos’ territory, and a field goal on the first drive of the second half. The score of 10-7 held because the rest of the second half was a snowy mess with both teams missing field goals.

The Pats sacked Stidham 3 times, recovered the one sack-fumble, and had a pick at the end of the game when the weather was at its worst and Denver was forced to throw. The Broncos were 4 of 15 on 3rd/4th downs, and clearly their offense had no shot.

I will say this, based on all three games: the Patriots’ run defense looks legit. All three of those teams wanted to run the ball, and – especially Houston – would’ve been well-served in leaning more on the run. The Chargers eventually had to abandon it, and had pretty disasterous results. The Texans abandoned it pretty early, because their quarterback put them in a hole. The Broncos stuck with it for the most part, but at the end of the game, in Stidham’s hands, you saw what happened.

That’s what the Patriots want to do. They want to make you one-dimensional. While the pass defense isn’t super elite or super flashy, their interior defensive linemen as a group are as good as you’ll get, and they’ve got enough talent spread throughout the defense to give you fits. So, they’re not going to kill you with their outside rush, but if they’re getting consistent interior push, bracketing JSN, and locking down everyone else, you can see why it might be a long day for the Seahawks’ offense.

What the Seahawks have shown – by and large, and even against the very best defenses – is that you can slow us down for a while, maybe even a half of football. But, we’re going to find a way to move the ball on you. We’ve played the Rams and 49ers three times, as well as the Texans, Jags, Colts, and even the Vikings and Falcons (who gave us fits for a while before we went off in the second halves of those games). It might not be a bombastic blowout against the Patriots, but I fully expect us to eventually get things going on offense. At which point, it’s up to our defense to stop their offense.

***

So, let’s turn out focus to the offense. We should point out here that apparently Drake Maye injured his throwing shoulder in the AFC Championship Game. It’s not significant enough to prevent him from playing, but it will limit his practice reps, and might limit him somewhat in the game. What I’ll find interesting is: will it alter their gameplan?

The Pats were 6th in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 128.9. What does that tell us, though? Well, they were 14-3, so obviously they ran a lot in the second halves of games to bleed clock. Although, I will say the Top 10 is kind of a mixed bag of playoff teams and bad ones, so maybe that’s not as much of a faulty stat line as once thought. I will say that their average yards per attempt is only 4.4, which is in the middle of the pack across the league. And, I think Hawkblogger said that their run game is largely propped up by Maye scrambles.

That in and of itself is a little concerning, though, because other than Kyler Murray – who we limited to 41 yards on 5 carries in our first game against them (Brissett started the other one) – we haven’t really faced a lot of mobile quarterbacks (your mileage may vary on Brock Purdy, but I guess I would have to lump him in here, though I think Maye is considerably more dangerous with his legs).

Now, one thing we have going for us is that ours isn’t a defense that’s likely to get burned by a running quarterback. It may happen on occasion; hell, even Matthew Stafford ran for an annoying first down when we should’ve had him dead to rights. But, it’s not like we pin our ears back and hunt for sacks every single down. We’re usually pretty responsible with our rush lanes and not overpursuing. Our ends are usually good at setting an edge. This may be a game where we just try to contain him in the pocket and let our coverage units clamp down until the walls come closing in on Maye.

I would expect the Patriots to stay dedicated to the run as they always have; I don’t think they’re going to be overly reliant on the run game just because Maye is a little banged up. I do wonder, however, what this injury is going to mean for his deep ball.

In spite of not having the most elite receivers in the world, Drake Maye is still one of the more effective deep passers in the league. I’m assuming that means they use that run game to set up a lot of play-action. Will they be willing to take as many shots? Will he be as accurate on those shots? I’ll be very curious to find out.

It was nice of Maye to sort of level the playing field, what with Darnold’s oblique and everything. I did notice in the NFC Championship Game – and I don’t know if this is accurate or not; I would need someone who watches tape to confirm – that it seemed like Darnold was using more of his body to get those deep balls down field, whereas I seem to recall him being more fluid and using more of just his arm and torso to fling those footballs. Both players will have the two-week lay-off to recover. But, Darnold’s already been playing with his injury through two games; Maye didn’t really have to throw much after he hurt himself against the Broncos, so that’s another unknown for the Pats.

The Pats were fourth in passing yards in 2025, but they were only 23rd in attempts. That’s good for first in yards per attempt! The Seahawks, not for nothing, were second in yards per attempt; 8th in passing yards, 29th in attempts. So, these are two highly efficient offenses. Obviously, that’s very different in these playoffs. Small sample size and all that, but the Seahawks are first in yards per attempt in their two games, at a robust 8.9 (next-highest is the Rams at 7.9); the Patriots are 8th in yards per attempt in their three games, at a mediocre 6.8. The Seahawks still accomplished their feat against a couple of pretty good defenses. It’s noteworthy to see that as the Pats have faced stiffer competition on defense, their high-flying offense has hit the skids. Now, they’re going up against the best defense in football …

While the Patriots’ defense is leading the playoffs in sacks with 12 in three games, the Seahawks have only managed 3 in two games. That being said, Maye has been sacked 5 times in each playoff game (15 total, for those not into maths); he was sacked 47 times in the regular season (4th in football). How much of that is him holding the ball too long, or trying too hard to make a play? How much of that is due to O-Line injuries? And, how much of that is due to the O-Line just being a sloppy mess?

There’s no doubt that Drake Maye was exceedingly promising as a rookie in 2024. He was saddled with an inept coaching staff, and his O-Line was awful. He’s managed to take a significant step forward in his second season. His completion percentage is way up, as is his passer rating and QBR. There’s a reason why he’s going to be Top 2 in MVP voting. But, one area he hasn’t yet mastered is avoiding the sack. 34 as a rookie (in 13 games), 47 this year (plus the additional 15 in the playoffs). Maybe he’s got a little Russell Wilson in him, and that’s just always going to be there.

I will say that this was the rep for Sam Darnold as well. He had 48 sacks in 2024 with the Vikings. Still had a great season! But, you know, that’s a problem. Well, he’s lowered that total to 27 this year, with 5 total in his two playoff games. That’s particularly notable because we had Geno Smith before him (in his three years as our starter, he averaged over 42 a year), and Russell Wilson before that (who was consistently in the 40’s throughout his Seahawks career). Sam Darnold – with essentially one new offensive lineman over the God-awful Seahawks O-Line of a season ago – almost cut his sack totals in half and ranked tied for 18th in the NFL. So, it can be done.

Someone on the radio pointed out that his favorite Sam Darnold play of the NFC Championship Game was when there was an errant snap. Instead of trying to scoop it up and make a play, he just calmly fell on it and took the loss. Which was indeed brilliant, because there was a Rams defender charging at him, ready to crush him (and probably cause a fumble-six in the process) if he’d done anything stupid. His other two sacks in that game were equally as smart. If I remember correctly, the Rams blew it up and were on him before he could turn around; each time, he just took the loss and protected the football.

I will say that this feels like a fairly recent development for Darnold. He was definitely the kind of player who would try to spin out of a sack, only to lose more yards, or turn the ball over, THIS year!

However, while his sack rate has gone up since the first Rams game (10 through 10 games, including that Rams loss; 17 through the final 7 games, with again, 5 more in the 2 playoff games), he’s cut down on interceptions (10 through 10 games, including that Rams loss; 4 through the final 7 games, with 0 in the playoffs), and he’s cut down on fumbles lost (4 through 10 games, 2 ever since). He hasn’t been perfect, but I’ve seen a clear and obvious improvement in Darnold taking care of the football, without any dropoff in his throws down field. His Adjusted Yards per Attempt was 8.94 through 10 games, down moderately to 7.25 in the final 7, but has skyrocketed to 10.38 in the playoffs.

Drake Maye, again, has been consistently excellent in the regular season. His Adjusted Yards per Attempt was 9.46 in the regular season; it’s down to 6.79 in the playoffs. He had 8 picks and 3 lost fumbles in the regular season; he has 2 picks and 3 lost fumbles in the playoffs. Again, he’s seeing better defenses. I’m not saying he’s suddenly become careless, but he’s definitely looking less like an MVP when the competition is ratcheted up. This IS his second season in the NFL, after all, and he hasn’t seen a defensive scheme quite like the one the Seahawks have in his career. It’s a lot to ask a guy like Maye to have to play the very best game of his life, just to have a chance to win the Super Bowl.

If the Seahawks can generate some turnovers, then I don’t think the Patriots have a prayer. That’ll be a huge key to this game, if it ends up being a blowout.