This is it: this is the (regular) season. If the Seahawks beat the Rams this weekend, the Seahawks win the NFC West and guarantee themselves at least a Top 3 seed in the playoffs. Otherwise, if the Seahawks lose to the Rams for a second time, there is a VERY strong likelihood that we have to settle for a Wild Card berth and almost certainly a first or second round exit in the playoffs.
Of course, a divisional championship is no guarantee of playoff success either, but a wild card – for this team – IS a guarantee of playoff failure. It is SO hard to win three road playoff games to get to a Super Bowl. To further illustrate, let me walk you through what that probably looks like:
If the Rams win this weekend and next week against the Cardinals in Los Angeles, they’ll almost certainly own the 3-seed. At five losses, that puts us in a dead heat with the Bucs, who I think will also be locked into a wild card spot when it’s all said and done. If we get the 5-seed, that puts us on the road in the first round against Washington. If we win, and the Saints (likely 2-seed) and Rams both prevail, that puts us on the road in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers, who – as the top seed – will have had a first round BYE. Traditionally, teams with first round BYEs win in the Divisional Round approximately 75% of the time. It would be all but a guarantee that we would lose that game. BUT, if by the grace of God we win, that simply means we have to go back on the road again to play either the Rams or the Saints in the NFC Championship Game. I just don’t see it working out for us in any of these scenarios.
Of course, the bad news in all of this is that it’s highly likely we end up playing the Rams for a third time this year, even if we do end up beating them this weekend. A loss for the Rams likely means they fall to the 6-seed, so if we can’t find a way to leap over the Saints (who would need to lose one of their remaining games while we win out), it’s kind of a nightmare scenario either way. BUT, having at least one home playoff game (while avoiding playing the Packers as long as possible) is always better than having to play on the road throughout.
So, how do we do that? How do we beat the Rams this weekend? Well, shit, how did the fucking Jets do it? That seemed to work out okay.
It’s mind-boggling to me that the Jets can go on the road and get their first win of the season last week (with the Rams looking like utter dogshit for most of the game), meanwhile I know for a FACT the Rams are going to come into Seattle this weekend and probably look better than they ever have in the history of their franchise. WHAT THE FUCK?! Jared Goff sucks against MOST of the league, but for some reason he can carve the Seahawks up like we’re a soft turkey-shaped slab of butter.
I fucking hate the fucking Rams, so fucking much.
How do you beat the Rams? I don’t fucking know! Pixie dust? Rubbing a magic lamp and using one of your three genie wishes? Tricking the Rams’ head coach into running over a witch with his car, whose family curses him for all eternity? Is there time enough to do ANY of these things before Sunday?
Otherwise, I don’t know. I get the appeal of looking at how the Seahawks crushed the Jets, then went on the road and took care of business against a stout Washington team, while looking at what the Rams just did and say, “Oh yeah, the Seahawks should have no problem winning this week.” But, I’m here to tell you: one thing has nothing to do with the other. The Rams could’ve lost to a junior varsity high school team last week and I’d still be convinced they will come up to Seattle and thrash.
Russell Wilson has been garbage for half a season now. That’s just for starters. The defense has shown plenty of signs of life – especially since we traded for Carlos Dunlap – but look at who we’ve played in that stretch: the Rams (who we held to 23 points, but their offense has been far from elite with Goff at the helm, and they still won by 7 points), the Cards on Thursday night (with Kyler Murray working on an injured shoulder), then the Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Football Team. Not really a murderer’s row of offensive talent. We have looked better regardless, but that’s only compared to the first half of the season, when it was literally impossible to look any worse. And, moreover, the Seahawks’ coaching has been atrocious of late! From the gameplan in the Giants’ game, to the lack of in-game adjustments in general, to the baffling conservative choices on fourth down, to the lapses on defense in the second halves of the Giants and Football Team games. It’s been a total team effort to look this mediocre (except for Michael Dickson and Jason Myers, who have been killing it this season and were BEYOND deserving of making the Pro Bowl; no notes, you guys!).
So, again, I dunno. How do you beat the Rams? Play fucking better! That’s my recommendation. That’s my analysis for this game. If the Seahawks can just play better in all phases, they should win. Otherwise, strap in for another wild card disaster.
And, yeah, I know there’s a world where the Seahawks lose this weekend, then beat the 49ers in Week 17 while the Rams lose to the Cardinals, but is that really how you want to back into a divisional championship? Wouldn’t it be better to ride this regular season momentum and build up some confidence ahead of the playoffs? I think so.