The Seahawks Should Be In For Another Shootout Against The Lions

Not that the Falcons game was a super high scoring festival of points or anything, but the over safely covered and that’s all we’re talking about here.

The over/under at the time of this writing is 48 points. The over seems like a lock of all locks. The Lions have one of the worst defenses in football, and a pretty potent offense (all things considered), led by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is one of the best and most productive receivers in all of football. Jared Goff is giving them just enough competence, and even with D’Andre Swift out, they have plenty of depth at running back to give us trouble.

Oh, yeah, also our defense is straight up hot garbage.

The Seahawks can’t stop a cold (is how I think that saying goes). The D-Line isn’t doing anything against the run, the linebackers can only seem to make tackles 9-10 yards down field, and the secondary isn’t nearly as stout as it was in the olden days against the run. To top everything off, we’re not getting a ton of pressure on the quarterback, we have plenty of lapses in coverage, and we’re not forcing those fumbles on the goalline like we did against the Broncos, so flukey luck isn’t even on our side anymore.

I would say the Lions have a better offense than the Falcons, plus they’ll be at home. They should have no trouble pulling this one out in the end.

That being said, the Seahawks should have no trouble moving the football and scoring points in bunches. The Lions might be so bad that they even gag this one away to us, which is a terrible thought. If you’re a betting person, I’d say to go ahead and bet on the Seahawks a lot in the first half. Then, go ahead and make a halftime live bet for the Lions to make it close late. Bet the Seahawks to cover +3 in the first half, maybe even bet the Seahawks to have the lead going into halftime, bet the first half over (24) and bet the game over (48), with a live Lions bet at halftime. You can’t lose!

I’d also put money on a D.K. anytime touchdown. If St. Brown plays, put an anytime TD on him as well. I would even say give me over 1.5 Geno Smith touchdown passes. I want it all! Stay away if it’s over 2.5 though.

I like Penny in this one as well. I think we’ll go further down the rabbit hole with the run.

This one could be scary, from a tanking perspective. I know we’re all frustrated with some of the decisionmaking by Pete Carroll, but I think the in-game coaching for the Lions is even worse. I think there’s going to be a lot of bungling going on by the Lions, and I think the Seahawks will take advantage. I’m taking the Seahawks in a squeaker, 31-30.

The Seahawks Should Lose A Lot Of Games In 2022

I don’t have a lot of faith in the Seahawks this year. As I’ve noted in the past – especially in the post-LOB era – if you take Russell Wilson off of this team, it’s probably a 3-win team, give or take. That’s what we’re looking at right now.

It’s not just the loss of Russell Wilson, but it’s also who we’ve replaced him with. Geno Smith has always been a terrible-to-mediocre quarterback. Now he’s an old terrible-to-mediocre quarterback. He might have a few good throws per game, but he’s also going to hold onto the ball too long, take some untimely sacks, and fail to move this offense one iota whenever we’re behind the sticks. Any failed play – whether it’s the aforementioned sack, a penalty, a run stuff, or even an incomplete pass on 1st & 10 – and we’re looking at almost an automatic punt. Anytime we get down by two scores, you can pretty much write the game off; there’s no way Geno Smith is pulling our asses out of any fires like Russell Wilson did on the regular. Remember ALL of those games where we started slowly WITH an elite guy like Wilson at the helm! Now, imagine those same slow starts, only we’ve got Geno being harassed like crazy in obvious passing situations. It’s a living hell.

At least in the LOB era, you could’ve made the argument that a simple game manager might’ve kept us in a lot of games. We might’ve even succeeded on the strength of literally every other position on the team. But, this ain’t that. It might have the potential to one day approach that, but there’s a lot that would have to go right.

We all know the preseason is fake football. Putting too much stock in what happens in August is really grounds for losing your football fan card. But, I can’t help feeling especially disheartened, because we actually played a good number of our starters. Geno Smith had a lot of snaps out there! Behind a starting offensive line that also saw a lot of snaps – since we’re breaking in a couple rookies at the tackle spots – that actually looked pretty decent! So, the fact that we struggled so mightily to score points is pretty damning. Even if our top two running backs missed most of the games, our next two running backs played quite extensively and ALSO looked better than I’ve ever seen them. Really, the guys you’re talking about – on offense – who largely sat out were D.K. and Tyler Lockett. Are those two guys alone going to automatically pump things up to a league-average level? I’m dubious.

Which puts a lot of pressure on a defense that’s as big a question mark as anything. The defense didn’t look great either, but you can convince me a lot of our best guys DID sit out. Nevertheless, that’s putting a lot on guys like Jordyn Brooks, Quandre Diggs (coming off of injury), and Jamal Adams (also coming off of injury, as well as playing through more injuries). We’re going to have to count on cornerbacks who are largely untested (and possibly bad). We’re going to have to count on a pass rush that’s in Prove It Mode. We’re going to have to rely on a run stuffing unit that didn’t seem to stuff much of the run in spite of playing a lot in the preseason.

We’re really banking on the coaching staff holding everything together with duct tape and zipties. Is that smart? An offensive coordinator in his second year of calling plays? A defensive coordinator in his first year of running a defense? The second-oldest head coach in the NFL?

Let’s look at the schedule. We start out on Monday night against a fired up Russell Wilson, surrounded by a lot of talent on that Broncos roster. That feels like a sure loss. Then we go on the road to play the 49ers, who might be among the best teams in the NFC from top to bottom. We host Atlanta, who feels on par with our talent level; that’s a coin flip at best. Then, it’s back to back road games against a young and hungry Lions team, followed by a Saints team with a great defense and a lot of talent on offense.

Then, we host the Cardinals (a playoff team last year with most of their guys returning) and play the Chargers on the road (a definite playoff-calibre team this year). The Giants at home feel like pushovers, but like the Falcons, I think their talent level is on par with ours. That’s another coin flip. Then, we go on the road against Arizona again, before playing Tampa in Germany.

Would it shock anyone if we’re 2-8 or 1-9 heading into the BYE week? Not me!

We host the Raiders (another playoff team from last year), then go on the road to play the Rams (Super Bowl champs). We host Carolina, which is a sleeper playoff team this year with Baker Mayfield out there. Then we host the 49ers, before going on the road to play the Chiefs (another viable Super Bowl contender). Then we close by hosting the Jets and Rams.

In that last stretch, I see one win. Maybe two. But, it’s not a stretch at all for this team to be anywhere from 2-15 to 4-13, and maybe that’s for the best.

I haven’t been this down on the Seahawks in a while. Probably since the Suck For Luck campaign. We all know how that turned out. But, rather than winning 7 games, I think we have the legitimate potential to lose a lot more.

It sucks being in this position, but again, I think it’s necessary. I’d still rather be here than having Russell Wilson and praying everything goes right for us to MAYBE get beyond the Divisional Round of the playoffs (something we haven’t done since the 2014 season). We’ve been spinning our tires in the mud for too long now. It was time to make this change. It’s time to start over and see if we can rebound quickly. First thing’s first: we need to lose a lot so we can guarantee ourselves a chance to draft our next potential franchise quarterback.

I know, in a vacuum, it’s better to have the sure thing on your roster. But, the way we’ve failed to build around Wilson – combined with the fact that he was only going to get more expensive and take up more of a percentage of our salary cap – I don’t see how things were ever going to change. I guess you can argue we should’ve kept him over Pete Carroll and John Schneider, but then you’ve got the unknown of a brand new head coach and GM pairing.

Maybe that’s preferable. What has John Schneider done since 2014 when it comes to building this roster? Maybe he’s cashed as a talent evaluator. After all, if the rumors are true – that he was high on bringing Drew Lock here – then I think that speaks volumes. But, if that’s just poppycock, and he has another card up his sleeve with the next draft, then I’d like to see what’s in store for the future.

This is it, though. It’s the 2023 draft. It’s whoever we draft at that position next year. Pete and John get whoever that is, and if they flame out, it’s over. We’ll know soon enough whether this was all a huge mistake, or a massive stroke of genius. It might not make the 2022 Seahawks worth watching, but it’ll make the 2022 and 2023 NFL seasons pretty interesting. I’ll be keeping an eye on what Denver’s doing, for sure.

For the record, I think Denver will look pretty fucking great this season. I’m on record as believing they’ll win their division and maybe even go far in the playoffs. I think Russell Wilson will look terrific and in shape and run more with the ball than he has in the last few years. But, long term? I do have my doubts. I think the honeymoon won’t be long. And when it gets bad, it’ll get REALLY bad.

But, if it gets them a title in 2022, clearly it’ll all be worth it. And Pete and John will look like assholes for squandering so much of Russell’s prime.

I’m putting us at 3-14, with a top 4 draft pick. Maybe even top 3 or top 2. We won’t be the worst of the worst – I think that’ll be Chicago – but it’s going to be ugly. Just get there now. Get in that mindset. We’ll get through this together.

OH MY GOD The Seahawks Looked Terrible Against The Bears

Yeah yeah yeah, it’s pre-season and whatnot. The whole point is to rest your stars, give the young guys some experience, and parse through your depth to see who’s worthy of a shot at the 53-man and who’s destined for the XFL or whatever the fuck they’re doing now with spring football.

But this was just a-whole-nother level of sucking that feels more like a harbinger of things to come than fake-football nonsense that can be ignored.

If you were unfortunate-enough to watch from beginning to end, who are you happy with? Who stood out in even a remotely positive light? I’ll tell you who, the fucking long-snapper Tyler Ott. Dude just balls out. Perfect long-snaps, made a touchdown-saving tackle on a punt return; he does it all!

Everyone else can go right to hell, as far as I’m concerned. Burn in the fiery pits of Satan’s domain.

Pre-Season Quarterback Report

Welp, Drew Lock was announced earlier this week as the Seahawks’ starter for this game. He went through a full practice with the ones and we were off and running with this now-legitimate quarterback competition.

Then, immediately after practice, it was announced he’d tested positive for COVID-19 and would not be playing this week. Furthermore, we’d find out that he was sick as a dog throughout that practice, and there’s no real guarantee that he’s even going to be ready to play in our third and final pre-season game on Friday, August 26th. Yay.

So, that means Geno Smith got to start his second game, with Jacob Eason playing those meaningless second half reps.

It’s hard to shit on Geno too much, because receivers were dropping balls left and right. That being said, it’s not like those drops were all on the most perfect of passes. Should they have been caught? Yeah, sure. Could they have been thrown more accurately and on time? I think so. I think there’s incompetent people on both sides.

It was a first half of punts, with one missed field goal. That feels true to real life. I think we’re going to see that a lot in the regular season, no matter who’s starting at quarterback. I don’t think D.K. Metcalf & Tyler Lockett will make much of a difference, because we’re also going to be going up against opposing teams’ number 1 defenses, with all of these pass rushers and other studs who’ve been sitting out the pre-season so far.

Jacob Eason led us to all of our 11 points in this 27-11 loss – and it could’ve been more if only we’d played better down the stretch – but don’t let that fool you. Eason stinks. He stunk in Georgia and lost his starting job. He stunk in Washington and ended up being the single worst decision of the Chris Petersen era. And he stinks now, where he’s clinging to a #3 job until the end of the month, when I’m sure he’ll be cut and free to sign with the Alabama Roughriders, the Omaha Roughriders, or even the San Francisco Roughriders of whatever second-rate minor football league is out there.

What does it all mean for the quarterback position heading into the regular season? Your guess is as good as mine. It felt like – by giving Drew Lock this Bears game at Lumen Field – we were setting him up for great success. Give him the home crowd and a soft-ish landing against the Bears and let him win this starting job. Even though all the talk has centered around Geno Smith being the man who deserves to be ahead in the competition – based on his years of experience and prior knowledge of the system – I don’t believe Pete Carroll is happy with the notion of Geno Smith being the starter when the games matter. I think he wants Lock out there, to see if we have a diamond in the rough, or to go down in flames so we can take a shot at a rookie next year.

But, Lock has disappointed at every turn. Critical practice interceptions, that fumble at the end of last week’s game (which could’ve been avoided had he adjusted our protection), and now this COVID diagnosis. He can seemingly do no right, and he’s bumbling his way into a backup job, at least to start the month of September.

Other Pre-Season Tidbits

Where to begin? It sucks that Damien Lewis got hurt. But, it’s a relief that it wasn’t an ACL or something too serious.

I thought the O-Line gave us some good pockets early, but struggled at times; they definitely weren’t as clean as last week. Charles Cross had the perfect storm of fuck-ups, with NUMEROUS penalties that killed MULTIPLE drives. Also, after the first couple drives, we really couldn’t even get a run game going to save our lives.

I will say that I thought Travis Homer looked GREAT! For the second week in a row! I’m flabbergasted! Like, if we needed to rely on him for more than pass protection, I think he’d be a real asset. It’s one of the most shocking things I’ve seen out of any pre-season, and I’m happy for him. It looks like he put in WORK this off-season; he appears faster, stronger, more agile. It’s a sight to behold.

Lotta drops by the receivers, as I mentioned. LOTTA DROPS. They all looked so fucking shitty. How is it that no one is going to step up and assert themselves? I know we have draft picks galore in this room, not to mention guys who’ve been on the periphery of the program for a few years, but I think the Seahawks need to start looking at everyone we’ve got – even the guys lower on the depth chart – and give them a legit chance. If you’ve got hands, I want you on my team! I know he doesn’t have a chance in hell, but you know who looks like a slot receiver who can catch the ball AND who can stay healthy on the field? Cade Brewer. If he’s someone who’s showing out in practice, I think he deserves a real shot. Not to mention Kevin Kassis, who caught 4 of 5 balls. This is the first I’ve seen or heard about either of these guys, but just by not dropping the ball, they out-performed every other higher-rated guy on this team.

The defense as a whole, again, is on my shitlist. But, two stood out as being particularly terrible. Justin Coleman, for the second week in a row, leads me to wonder why the fuck he’s even on this team. Terrible coverage, and a total brain fart where he could’ve downed a punt at the one yard line, but mindlessly stepped on the endzone line for a touchback. Why is he here?! Why did we trade Ugo Amadi? Why is he playing over Coby Bryant, who is LEAPS AND BOUNDS better than him?

The other guy is Marquise Blair, who just isn’t good. We all know him as the guy who can’t stay healthy – in three years, he’s played in 22 games – but he’s also just not good at the game of football. The only thing he wants to do is hit. Instead of using proper tackling techniques, he’s lowering his shoulder and hoping for those home run hits. Except, the guys he’s trying to obliterate are football players too, and they’re fully capable of bouncing off of this skinny twig-man for extra yards. And, when he lowers his shoulders like that, inevitably his helmet is going to get in the way and inadvertently come into contact with the helmet of the player on offense, resulting in a penalty. Just no football common sense whatsoever. It’s his last year, and maybe he won’t even make it to the regular season. What a fucking BUST of a second round pick.

I don’t remember much from the pass rush, so no kudos for any of them. Darrell Taylor had a critical offsides penalty. In total, we had 13 penalties for 92 yards, and all of them were warranted. The Bears, on the other hand, had 3 for 38. Don’t take that as the refs favoring one team over the other. Take that as the Seahawks being shitty and undisciplined.

Oh, yeah, before I forget, Jason Myers missed another make-able field goal. Another waste of money on a kicker who’s hardly better than a coin flip. Why is he here? Why isn’t there at least a competition going on?

The more I see of this team, the worse my opinion gets. I’m starting to come around on the idea that we might be bottom-dwellers in the NFL. Is the #1 pick on the table? Absolutely. Is a winless season on the table? Why not?! How low can we go? Your guess is as good as mine.

How Bad Can The Seahawks Get On Offense In 2022?

I think the Vegas odds have the Seahawks at over/under 5.5 wins this year. Seems high when you think about how extensive this rebuild has gone so far; I’ve always maintained the Seahawks would’ve easily been a 2-3 win team without Russell Wilson in recent years. But, when you look at the schedule, there appears to be at least 4-5 really bad teams on there, with most of those easy games happening at home. All it would take is beating the truly awful (on paper) teams, and maybe stealing a game in our division, and there you have it. I’m not saying I’d bet the Taylor Family Farm on the Seahawks winning 6+ games in 2022, but I’ve always had an inkling we’d manage to get there one way or another. Maybe that’s just because I have this perception that the national pundits and football fans outside of the Pacific Northwest think so poorly of our chances, I just want to zag where they zig. I’m guessing a lot of armchair general managers out there will be predicting us to have a Top 3 draft pick next year.

Aside from the schedule, I’m on record as saying I like this team at most every position except quarterback. If we had an elite quarterback, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if we contended for a wild card spot, or even as a dark horse divisional contender.

That could, of course, be the homer in me. Looking at things logically, we have inexperienced guys at offensive tackle, we have inexperienced guys at cornerback, we have a potentially bottom-quarter pass rushing unit, and we have a run-first guy in Pete Carroll throttling this offense back at every turn. By season’s end, there could be pleasant surprises from every non-quarterback group on this team. This very well could be the start of a new Seahawks dynasty for all we know! But, as was the case in the L.O.B. era, a lot would have to go right for that to happen again.

Until you actually sit there and watch the games, it’s easy to forget how truly vital the quarterback position is. The Ringer has the Seahawks ranked 27th out of 32 offensively. Honestly, that feels high, but I don’t know who you bump to move us down. It got me to wondering just how bad things can get.

Limiting Turnovers isn’t an offensive scheme. Yet, that seems to be 95% of what the Seahawks are banking on this year. That seems to be 110% of the reason why Geno Smith is leading the quarterback competition, even though we know exactly who he is. Spoiler alert.

Just because someone takes care of the football and “knows when to take a sack” doesn’t mean we’re magically going to score 25+ points per game. I think the biggest part of the reason why my gut tells me the Seahawks can win 6+ games is because the defense will be better than expected, and because Pete Carroll and his staff will be able to coach everyone up to win some tight and low-scoring games. But, it’s entirely possible the defense is the same (or worse) as it’s been for the last half-decade. It’s also entirely possible that Pete Carroll is cashed as a coach, and it’s time to move on to some fresh blood.

The bottom line is: if the defense stinks, there’s no way the Seahawks are winning any shootouts. If the defense stinks, the floor is zero victories. The offense will be THAT mediocre.

We all point to the 1992 Seahawks as the epitome of a terrible offense. Not just a franchise nadir, but also one of the very worst offenses in NFL history (at least modern NFL history, since the merger). I will say that I don’t think the 2022 Seahawks offense will be THAT bad. There are still some talented players. Metcalf and Lockett are up there among NFL wide receiver duos. We’ve got some talented guys at running back. The tight ends look solid. If the O-Line is even remotely competent, we should be able to easily surpass 8.8 points per game.

But, this is obviously a different game than the one that was played in the early 90s. It’s a lot easier to score nowadays, all the rules changes have seen to that. Nevertheless, I think we’re going to find this team to be VERY difficult to watch. Geno Smith’s “good” numbers – in, again, not turning the ball over and hitting his checkdowns – mean nothing if we can’t convert third downs. Mean nothing if we can’t convert field goal drives into touchdown drives. Mean nothing if we can’t score in the fourth quarter with the game on the line. He can complete 100% of his dinks and dunks for all I care, but if we’re not able to reliably slice and dice our way through opposing defenses, it’s all going to be worthless.

And that’s assuming we roll with Geno! Just imagine how bad things could get if Drew Lock is the guy. Someone who decidedly isn’t as careful with the football. Yet, also someone who isn’t even remotely accurate as a deep-ball passer. It’s all well and good to have a cannon for an arm, but if you’re always over-throwing guys by 20 yards, then what use is it?

The only hope, really, is that Shane Waldron is able to unlock the Sean McVay offense – even if it’s a slightly watered-down version – to the point where Smith or Lock can be to us what Jared Goff was to the Rams when they were all together. That, and the offensive line holds up, and the running game is more dynamic than we could’ve possibly imagined. But, here’s the rub: even if the running backs play some elite ball, defenses are just going to gear up for the run and load the box, because they know our quarterbacks will never be able to beat them with their arms.

It feels bleak! It feels like 27th truly IS too high of a ranking for this offense. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if the Seahawks are averaging somewhere in the realm of 15 points per game and we go something like 3-14 or 2-15. There’s just NOTHING holding this team together right now except for the coaching staff. And I don’t care how good the coaches are, they aren’t out there on the field taking care of business. If they don’t have the players, then they’re effectively useless.

Bad quarterbacks – even with the talented skill position players we have around them – will alienate the entire team. If we’re truly awful to start the season, expect it to snowball. Expect this team to give up. And once that happens, there’s no bottom limit to how bad this team can be, in every facet of the game.

I would say – in a TL;DR situation – to expect a lot of field goals this year, but who knows with Jason Myers?! If he’s as bad as everyone else, then watch out!

Pondering Russell Wilson’s Future In Denver

I have a lot of investment in the 2022 season of the Denver Broncos, followed by no investment whatsoever in 2023 and beyond. This obviously has to do with the Seahawks getting whatever ends up being Denver’s first round draft pick after this season. The worse they do on the field, the better it is for us as Seahawks fans.

But, that’s tricky, because that means actively rooting against Russell Wilson for the first time since he joined the league.

It’s going to be so weird to see him playing for the Broncos. Russell Wilson is a player I’ve been conditioned to root for. Not just him specifically, but what he represents as well. The under-sized, scrambling risk-taker. A deep ball maven who finds a way to pull a victory out of his ass more often than not.

And you’d think – as someone who took us to back-to-back Super Bowls, and winning us our first and only NFL championship – it would be all sunshine and roses for our erstwhile franchise QB. You’d think we’d root for him no matter where he went, even if his success meant a worse trade compensation.

There are opposing truths about Russell Wilson’s tenure with the Seahawks: he was the greatest reason for our successes, as well as our frustrating failures. While he doesn’t get enough credit for all the winning we did in the L.O.B. era during the first half of his stint here, there’s no doubt in my mind that we wouldn’t have done what we did with a lesser talent at quarterback. It’s that talent that kept the Seahawks relevant as the L.O.B. era rode off into the sunset. But, ultimately, we were never able to get over the hump when it became the Russell Wilson Show, and I don’t think he gets enough of the blame for where it all went so wrong.

Who gets the blame? Pete Carroll gets the blame. The offensive line gets the blame. The talent and coaching of the defense. The offensive play-calling and/or scheme. The moves of John Schneider and the front office. Everyone seems to get to share in the blame except for Wilson. They were all holding Wilson back in one way or another. Cue “Let Russ Cook” movement on social media, followed shortly thereafter by the regular media.

I thought this was really well-written and informative. Even Russell Wilson – the greatest quarterback in Seahawks history – has his limitations. And those limitations were really damaging over the last five years of his time here. You can look at his numbers, and our regular season results in the standings, and see what he did to prop up a dying monster. But, if you dig deeper, you’ll see that the Seahawks feasted on bad teams. And we only really looked good when the running game was on point and our defense improved as seasons went on.

Ultimately, the reason why we needed to move on from Russell Wilson was his unwillingness to adapt. His unwillingness to see himself for what he actually is. His unwillingness to be anything but Russell Wilson: Deep Ball Maven.

Part of the greatness of any elite athlete is the belief that they can do anything. Russell Wilson believes so fiercely that he can complete every pass, that instead of just taking what the defense gives him, he seeks out lower-percentage shots downfield, to the team’s detriment. It’s to his credit that he was able to complete as high a percentage of them as he did, but over the last couple years you could see even that starting to dwindle.

Brian Schottenheimer was probably the best offensive coordinator we’ve had in his tenure. Yet, that ended in miserable failure even as he led this team to a 12-win season, where Russell Wilson had some of his very best efficiency numbers. Why is that? Because Wilson went off-scheme too much – throwing into coverage with disasterous results – necessitating the team to pull back the reins in order to win ballgames. We ultimately sided with Wilson in the parting of ways of Schotty, going so far as to hire a Wilson choice in Shane Waldron.

And what happened in 2021? Wilson kept going off-scheme, with much worse results. We brought in a guy with a Rams pedigree, yet we were still pretty much running the same offense as Schottenheimer. There was no stopping the Russell Wilson Show from eclipsing everything, so it was time to move on.

The big question that remains is: what does Denver have to look forward to?

Can Russell Wilson tamp down his need to do things his way? You would think that a drastic move to a new team would come with a little humility. It’s a fresh start with a whole new group of coaches and teammates, he’ll probably want to buy a little good will early. But, this is Russell Wilson we’re talking about. He’s a superstar in this league. He’s one of the most famous and popular players in the game today. This change of scenery might embolden him to become even further entrenched in the belief that he can do whatever he wants and it doesn’t matter, because his arm talent alone will save the day.

I could see it going either way. I guess I’m leaning towards him falling in line, allowing the run game to play out, and doing things within the flow of the offensive scheme (at least for this first season). But, it wouldn’t shock me to see his gigantic ego take over.

I agree with the blog post above, that if the Broncos are going to succeed, it’s going to necessitate Russ letting other players cook as well. If they contend for the division and a deep run in the playoffs, it’ll be with that strong running game, and a highly efficient Wilson playing like he did in so many Seahawks victories.

If the Broncos fail, I think it’ll be because Wilson is too involved. If they go pass-wacky and put the entire offense on his shoulders, then I think it’ll be a recipe for disaster. Of course, if they do go pass-wacky and the Broncos win it all, well then … that’s a pretty atrocious look for Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks.

Ultimately, I expect the Broncos to play well in 2022. In fact, I’m leaning towards them winning the division and at least one playoff game. I do think Wilson will look a lot like he did in the first five years of his time in Seattle, meaning he’s letting the running game do its thing, and being the hyper-efficient beast we all know he can be. That’s going to engender a huge outcry for people to say, “See! The Seahawks should’ve listened to Russ!” All the while, the Seahawks can say, “See! If he’d only checked his ego like we wanted him to, we could’ve won just like this!”

There’s no way the Seahawks get a draft pick out of the Broncos that’s inside the Top 20. That’s ultimately what I’m getting at. We’re not that lucky ’round these parts. If there’s a way to screw over a Seattle sports fan, the gods are going to find a way to do it, in as heart-wrenching a way as possible.

So, look for Wilson to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February of 2023. It’s really the only way this can end.

How Long Will It Take The Seahawks To Find Their Franchise Quarterback?

19 of the 32 NFL head coaches were hired in 2020 or later. That gives you some idea of the kind of turnover we’re talking about in the league. It also gives you a little bit of an idea of how many well-run franchises are out there. The teams with head coaches hired since 2020 by and large haven’t been very good. There are exceptions, of course; Tampa and New Orleans had legit guys either retire or take a year off. But, for the most part, when you think of the worst-run franchises in the NFL – the Giants, Jets, Texans, Jags, Bears, Lions, Commanders, Browns – and even the mediocre franchises – Panthers, Cowboys, Falcons, Dolphins, Eagles, Vikings, Raiders, Chargers – they’re all on this list.

I would say the best-run orgs with new head coaches are the Broncos, Saints, and Bucs. The Broncos just made a huge move to bring in Russell Wilson. The Saints are on year two of trying to replace Drew Brees. And we’re well aware of the Bucs and how they’ve done with Tom Brady.

It’s no coincidence that to win in the NFL – and therefore to be considered a well-run organization – you need a quality quarterback. But, even that doesn’t guarantee anything. Do we think the Bengals are a well-run organization? Of course not. But, they lucked into Joe Burrow, who seems to be a generational talent. Do we think the Cardinals are well-run? No way! But, they’re saddled with Kyler Murray through a second contract, and we’ll get to watch them fail to make a Super Bowl for many years to come. The Titans and Colts have won a lot of games in recent years, but I don’t think either franchise is super thrilled with their quarterback situations.

What I’m trying to get at here is the Chicken/Egg question: are well-run organizations more prone to finding quality franchise quarterbacks? Or, is it the quality franchise quarterback that makes an organization appear to be well-run?

What makes it tricky is the fact that head coaches don’t usually get opportunities to stick around through multiple quarterback changes. Either the coach finds his quarterback, and they make a pact to run it back for a long time, or the coach is brought in after the quarterback is already in place – maybe having underachieved during a prior head coach – and they make a pact to run it back for a long time. But, very rarely – especially in today’s game – do you bring in a coach, and he sticks around beyond the one main guy.

Bill Belichick, obviously, went from Drew Bledsoe to Tom Brady to Mac Jones (we’ll see on how good Jones ends up being). If Mac Jones pans out, I think that speaks very highly of Belichick and the organization as a whole being an environment that’s able to foster quarterback development. But, he’s also the greatest head coach of all time, so what are we talking about here? He’s a one of one. If anyone can do something like that, it’s him.

The Steelers will be an excellent case study, because Mike Tomlin is the second-longest tenured head coach in football, and as a whole they are considered to be probably a top five organization. They’re moving on from Ben Roethlisberger for the first time since Tomlin has been there. If they can turn Kenny Pickett into a star – especially when he wasn’t graded out super-high in this poor overall draft class for quarterbacks – then that’s another notch in the belt of Organization being more important than simply finding a fluke of a quarterback in the lottery that is the NFL Draft.

The Ravens succeeded pretty well in transitioning from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson (and even Tyler Huntley balled out in limited duty); the fact that they’ve won as much as they have speaks volumes. The Chiefs obviously hit the aforementioned lottery with Patrick Mahomes, but would he be the consensus #1 quarterback alive without Andy Reid’s system? The Rams certainly took it to another level when they brought Matthew Stafford into the fold, but they were winning at a tremendous clip with Jared Goff of all people. The 49ers have been pretty injury-prone under Shanahan, but he’s definitely built up a solid overall roster, and if Trey Lance hits, I think that’s another feather in his cap.

Clearly, this is all preamble before I talk about the Seahawks. I would put the Seahawks up there – at least in the top 10, if not the top 5 – in well-run organizations. But, maybe that’s mistaken. Maybe that’s the homer in me. After all, we’re talking about the VAST majority of our success coming in years where Russell Wilson was the starting quarterback. Clearly, we fared a lot better when we had a bomb-ass team around him – a bomb-ass team built through Pete Carroll and this organization – but even when the team around him faltered, Russell Wilson kept things afloat, almost by himself.

Before Russell Wilson, it was two years of rebuilding, with mediocre quarterback play (though, to be fair, I don’t know if even Russ could’ve won with the collection of “talent” we had in 2010 and 2011). Now, in 2022, it’ll be just the third season without Wilson at the helm for Pete Carroll & Co.

One thing’s for sure: I don’t believe our next franchise quarterback is on the roster at the moment. Geno Smith is a mediocre quarterback at best, Drew Lock might be even worse, and Jacob Eason seems to be destined for the XFL or USFL or working at a car dealership. Best case scenario, 2022 will be a rebuilding year akin to 2011. If everything goes right and we’re able to build up the roster around the quarterback position, maybe we luck into that franchise guy in 2023 and beyond.

Assuming we don’t trade for Jimmy G – who I would not place in that franchise quarterback bucket, especially since now we’re talking about not one but two teams who’ve given up on him – then we’re talking about 2023 at the earliest. But, even if we’re bad this year – which most people agree that we’ll be in the bottom 10, and maybe bottom 5 – that’s no guarantee that the guy we draft next year will be The Next Russell Wilson, or The Next Fill-In-The-Blank.

Think about all of those teams who’ve hired a new head coach since 2020. You don’t think they tried repeatedly to draft their franchise guy? For some of those organizations, that’s all they ever do! The Bears are STILL trying to find The Next Sid Luckman!

But, I also believe there’s something to the notion that better teams – with a solid foundation in place, both in coaching, as well as personnel – are better able to find those franchise guys, just as they’re better able to win with perhaps sub-par guys (see: the Titans). We’ll find out how true that is with the Seahawks, when they presumably draft a quarterback next year in one of the first three rounds (almost certainly in the first round, but you never know). I think that’ll give us a pretty good sense of what we’re dealing with here. There’s a good contingent of Pete Carroll haters out there – or, at least, Pete Carroll doubters – and I think they’re all of the same mind, that this team needs a breath of fresh air before we go out and find the next quarterback. I disagree. I want Pete Carroll here during these uncertain times. Why? Because he led us out of the wilderness during the LAST period of uncertainty.

Growing up, the Seahawks went from being a relatively well-run organization – through at least the early portion of the Chuck Knox era – to without question the worst-run organization. We were a laughingstock in the late 80s and early 90s. Really, it wasn’t until we hired Mike Holmgren before things turned around. He built us into winners. I don’t think that’s a coincidence, just as I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Pete Carroll was able to do what he did in the last decade. Winners find a way to win. They attract other winners.

Obviously, it’s fair to question whether or not the game has passed Carroll by. I think that’s the argument for a lot of the doubters. We’ll see. I think he’ll get through this year no matter what our record is. Then, I think he’ll get 2023 to see if we can turn things around and start looking competitive again. If we fade in 2023, then I highly doubt he’ll have 2024 or beyond to do anything.

The next two years will say a lot about the question of Organization vs. Quarterback. Can we find and develop the next franchise guy? Can we win with just an okay guy? If not, then there’s no way this doesn’t get blown up by 2024. And if THAT comes to fruition, then who the fuck knows how long it’ll take to find our next franchise quarterback? We could be talking decades!

2024, not so coincidentally, will also likely coincide with the Seahawks potentially being sold to a new ownership group. That’s something else to keep in mind. Maybe that’s a reason to keep Carroll an extra year or two, to make the transition. But, all that uncertainty might make a clean break ideal for all parties, especially if the Seahawks are bottom-dwellers over the next couple seasons.

The Seahawks Get Two Years Of Noah Fant

Noah Fant was already under contract for 2022, as we traded for him while he was still on his rookie deal. Since he was a first round draft pick, we have the choice to pick up his fifth-year option, which the Seahawks have opted to do. Now, we have Fant in the fold through the 2023 season as well.

It’s a shockingly reasonable sum of money – $6.85 million – which based on what we’ve paid vastly inferior tight ends in recent seasons, has me over the moon. This doesn’t bring Russell Wilson back, of course, but it’s nice to have talent locked down for the foreseeable future. Plus, if he comes out and kills it in 2022, we can always try to sign him to a long-term extension.

It’s crazy that this is the first time the Seahawks have used their fifth-year option, but I guess that particular rule was originally instituted during the Pete Carroll/John Schneider regime. There haven’t been a massive amount of successful first round draft picks in that span, as we’re all blatantly aware of. So, of course, it takes bringing in someone else’s first rounder for us to actually want to keep him the extra year.

I know my original stance on Fant more or less dealt with how pointless it all is if we don’t have a competent quarterback throwing to him. But, now that we have him through 2023, at least I can point to the fact that the Seahawks SHOULD be selecting a quarterback in one of the next two drafts. Rookie quarterbacks need safety valve tight ends. Even Russell Wilson got a lot of rookie mileage out of Zach Miller in 2012; there weren’t a ton of stats, but I remember a lot of important, drive-preserving catches on his end.

The truth is, Noah Fant might be the best all-around tight end we’ve had here since Zach Miller. We’ll see how well he picks up the blocking game – that’s crucial in Seattle, as Will Dissly’s contract attests to – but this could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship.

What If The Seahawks Got Baker Mayfield?

All right, calm down people. I’m not sitting here advocating for the Seahawks to acquire Baker Mayfield, in case that’s the conclusion you jumped to. GET OFF MY ASS! We’re just talking things through here.

The situation is this: the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, and gave him a batshit crazy all-guaranteed contract. Somehow, Watson allegedly sexually harassed (if not outright sexually abused) dozens of women, and yet he held all the cards when it came to his future? How does this work? Browns gonna Browns, of course, but it would seem multiple teams were prepared to go to this great length – burning down the league’s leverage in the quarterback contract market for all future superstars – so I guess I would just point to the insanity of the NFL owners themselves. They’ll cater to an alleged abuser, but they won’t even give a tryout to a guy in Colin Kaepernick fighting for social justice. Okay.

Anyway, the Browns have Watson, they also just signed Jacoby Brissett to be his backup, and all the while there’s Baker Mayfield in the final year of his rookie deal, making around $18 million. Not an outrageous sum of money for a viable starting quarterback, but the question remains: IS Baker Mayfield a viable starting quarterback? One that can lead a team to a championship?

It’s obvious to anyone with half a brain that the Browns have shit the bed in this one particular scenario: they want out from under Mayfield’s guaranteed money. Unfortunately, most of the big ticket quarterback moves have already been made. Aaron Rodgers is staying with Green Bay. Russell Wilson is now with the Broncos. The aforementioned Watson is with the Browns. Matt Ryan went to the Colts. Carson Wentz … went to the Commanders. Tom Brady is back with the Bucs. The Vikings are committed to Cousins, the Dolphins are committed to Tua, the Saints look to be committed to Jameis, the Jets are (apparently) committed to Zach Wilson, the Giants are (bafflingly) committed to Danny Dimes. Of the quarterbacks who are reported to be available in trades, Jimmy G should head that list, and so far there haven’t been any takers. So, where’s Baker’s market, exactly?

If the Browns cut Baker, they’re on the hook for his entire salary. But, they obviously can’t keep him around through training camp, because he almost certainly won’t be there, as he’s now demanded a change of scenery.

If I’m the rest of the NFL, and I had the slightest inkling in bringing in Baker, I’d play hardball and force the Browns to cut him. Then, swoop in with a lowball, incentive-laden offer to take him on as a 1-year flier.

No fanbase is excited about Baker Mayfield, though. It’s undeniable that he had a bad season in 2021, so there’s that taste in everyone’s mouths. He did have the torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, though, which undoubtedly affected his on-field play. He’s also, not for nothing, irritatingly over-exposed in TV commercials (based on his personality, I guess, because it’s not a reflection of his performance in actual professional football games). Even before his 2021 injury-plagued season, it’s not like Baker Mayfield was the epitome of an elite franchise quarterback. Odell Beckham’s dad more or less saw to making that clear to everyone with a Twitter feed.

He’s not particularly tall, he’s not particularly athletic, his arm isn’t particularly strong …

Funny Office Space quotes are funny …

And that’s where we are now. I still think the Steelers are the most logical destination for him, because he feels like a Steelers-type quarterback. Plus, he’d get two chances a year to stick it to the Browns, which I’m sure he’d love to do.

But, the Seahawks keep coming up in the rumor mill, and I have some free time this morning, so let’s get into it.

I’m just putting this back out into the universe for anyone who wants to read it: my number one preference for the Seahawks is to tank in 2022. That means, likely, giving Drew Lock as many reps as he can handle and watching him crash and burn spectacularly. That does NOT mean bringing in a middling veteran to annoyingly steal wins we don’t need. Draft a great pass rusher in the first round this year (or an elite left tackle, if one is still available), draft a couple of quality starters in the second round, and wait to draft a quarterback until 2023.

I have no number two preference. All other options for the Seahawks are going to be met with disdain. That includes Baker Mayfield.

If we MUST bring him in, then I would rather we wait for the Browns to cut him, and sign him to that aforementioned lowball, incentive-laden offer. I’ll admit, if that comes to fruition, I’d be intrigued.

I’m curious about what a healthy Baker Mayfield can accomplish, who is savagely pissed off at the world and hyper-motivated to rehabilitate his image. Don’t forget, it wasn’t that long ago when the Browns were lauded for taking him above the rest of his 2018 draft class. Of course, now we know Josh Allen was the true prize, but at first there were lots of questions about Allen’s accuracy and whatnot.

Ryan Tannehill is a name that gets bandied about. As a former Top 10 draft pick who flamed out with his original team, he became a … pretty good quarterback when he was inserted onto the right team. He doesn’t have to do too much, so long as Derrick Henry is healthy, but when he’s asked to step up, he tends to make plays more often than not. Now, EVERY team thinks they can rehab their own guys (to wit: the Giants with Danny Dimes), and it’s becoming sort of a disturbing trend. Most of these quarterbacks flame out for a reason, so giving them opportunity after opportunity is only going to prolong the mediocrity that’s so prevalent at the position.

But, if anyone can be “the next Ryan Tannehill”, I could see it being Baker.

Now, I’m not saying Tannehill is some great shakes, but he’s fine. Could Baker also be fine? Sure, why not?

The thing is, I don’t HATE the rest of the Seahawks’ roster. Assuming, of course, that they don’t trade away D.K. Metcalf. You know. If they do that, then the rebuild is almost certainly going into overdrive. But, with D.K., we’ve got two elite receivers, two stud tight ends, one potentially elite running back (with the high likelihood we draft another), and a pretty solid offensive line (whenever we figure out the left tackle spot).

I also don’t HATE the defense. We’ve got a new coaching staff and a tweaked scheme. Our interior linemen look good, we signed a promising pass rusher away from the Chargers, we’re moving on from Bobby and getting younger at linebacker, we’ve got Darrell Taylor who looks outstanding, and our secondary has a high floor, if not quite so high of a ceiling (unless Tre Brown returns from injury and asserts himself as the next great cornerback on this team). Don’t get me wrong, we still need an infusion of hot talent from the draft, but the bones are there for a quick turnaround (assuming we eventually get the right quarterback).

Could Baker Mayfield join this roster and lead us to a 9-8 record? It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. That might be a worst-case scenario in its own right, though, because 9-8 doesn’t seem like it’ll be good enough to catch a Wild Card spot, even with the expanded playoffs we’ve made our new reality.

However, I firmly do NOT believe Baker joins this roster and makes us a divisional contender. He certainly doesn’t make us a Super Bowl contender. At which point, his addition to this team just smacks of Pete Carroll refusing to rebuild through the draft like we need to.

And this scenario only gets scarier the more the Seahawks have to give up to get him here. The Browns are reportedly looking for a second round draft pick; that’s asinine. I wouldn’t give up anything higher than a 5th rounder, and even then, the Browns better be paying the bulk of his contract.

The thing is, I don’t think the Browns want him to go to the Steelers. And, if they cut him, I think that’s his top destination; I think he’d do everything – including taking a minimum contract from them – to make it happen. So, the Browns should be happy to take a 7th rounder from us – and pay the entirety of his contract – just to get him out of the AFC. Because, there won’t be anyone more motivated to beat up on the Browns if he’s in Pittsburgh (a city that already hates Cleveland with a passion).

In conclusion, Baker Mayfield is my nightmare. But, ultimately I don’t think he’ll be a Seahawk when it’s all said and done. Good luck, Steelers fans.

The Seahawks Aren’t Good At Tight Ends Anymore

Considering the reports this week that the Seahawks re-signed Will Dissly to a 3-year, $24 million deal, it got me to thinking about what we’ve seen from the tight end position in recent years with the Seahawks, relative to the cost.

I like Will Dissly as much as the next guy (is something someone says right before they’re about to shit on them), buuuuuuut … an average of $8 million per year? I know the guaranteed money is actually just under $16 million (and you can probably get out of this after a year or two at the most), but is this just what average tight ends go for now, and I didn’t get the memo? Dissly played 10 games over his first two seasons. From what I could tell, they scaled back his role a great deal as a result of those injury-plagued years, making him more of a #2 tight end. So, he’s not even an “average tight end”, but an “average #2 tight end”. His season high in receptions is 24; his season high in touchdowns is 4.

What’s even more baffling – and maybe this is just me showing my age – but I’ll grant you that he’s an elite “blocking tight end”. Even if he’s the very best blocking tight end in all of football, those guys used to be a dime a dozen! You could find one on the scrap heap every year for the minimum, in a plug-and-play type of role. Are they THAT rare nowadays? Is he THAT good?

Apparently.

He still figures to be our #2 with the trade for Noah Fant in the Russell Wilson deal, so it’s not like we should expect some advanced role for him. And, again, I really like Dissly! But, it just seems like a lot.

And tight ends have seemed to cost a lot for a while now, at least where the Seahawks are concerned. In 2021, we signed Gerald Everett for 1 year, $6 million. Seemingly a relative bargain, except it’s a 1 year deal and all of that ended up being guaranteed. In 2020, we signed the bust that is Greg Olsen for 1 year, $7 million (in a season where we were very much up against the salary cap going into that deal). In 2018, we signed Ed Dickson to a 3 year, $14 million deal, then kept him around for two of those years even though his first season with us was injury-riddled.

In trades, the Seahawks have been spotty. The deal for Jacob Hollister in 2019 was good (we only gave up a 7th round pick). But, obviously, the deal for Jimmy Graham in 2015 was a lowkey disaster for any number of reasons we’ve all belabored for far too long.

And, I don’t know how great we’ve been at drafting tight ends; again it’s hit or miss (with the hits not being particularly high). Colby Parkinson in 2020 gets an incomplete, though it’s a bad sign he’s been on the team for two years and has done next-to-nothing. Will Dissly was a great draft pick in 2018, if again you overlook the first two years where he missed so many games. Nick Vannett was an unquestioned bust in 2016. Luke Willson was the best of the bunch in 2013, but the team still let him walk multiple times in his tenure; luckily he was all too happy to keep returning on minimum deals (as it should be). Anthony McCoy – dating back to the 2010 draft – feels like he was here eons ago, back when blocking tight ends were the aforementioned dime a dozen.

The best move the Seahawks made at tight end in the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era was to sign Zach Miller in 2011. He was a hit anyway you slice it, even though he was only healthy for three years before injuries caught up to him in 2014. But, that was us going out and signing one of the best available (if not THE best available) tight ends at that time. We haven’t come close in the years since. And, lately, it seems like we’re dumpster diving and paying a premium (for some reason) to do so.

Like with most of our roster moves, tight end seems to be a microcosm of our fortunes: we were great until 2013, and then we forgot how to scout talent. But, maybe I expect too much from the Seahawks. I seem to have this idea that we were one of the better tight end teams in football. Or, at the very least, one of the more underrated ones. There have been some spectacular duds across all eras of Seahawks football (notably Jerramy Stevens in the Holmgren era stands out), but there have been some real diamonds in the rough as well. Itula Mili, Christian Fauria, John Carlson, Mike Tice, Carlester Crumpler (an all-timer of a football name). We’ve gotten a lot of value out of low-cost tight ends throughout our history, but that seems to be going by the wayside over the last decade.

We Don’t Root For Russell Wilson On The Broncos

I don’t know who needs to be reminded of this, but if you’re here you’re probably a Seahawks fan. If you’re from another fanbase, I don’t know what to tell you. How did you find this?! It’s not a particularly well-publicized blog. I’ve got no adds. I don’t even know what SEO stands for, let alone how it works.

Anyway, it should be obvious – as Seahawks fans – why we don’t root for the Broncos. Especially in 2022. We get their first round draft pick from this season! So, the worse they are, the better our return will be on this trade. I know, as fans of Wilson for the past decade, there’s a soft spot in our hearts for the greatest quarterback in franchise history. But, you’ve got to push that aside for the good of the team, and you’ve got to push that aside from day one.

I should also point out – for those not around in the dreaded Before Times – that the Seahawks shared a division with the Broncos for a significant portion of our time in the league. I fucking hate the Broncos based on history alone. John Elway is a douche, Mike Harden is a dick; the Broncos can go fuck themselves. Kicking their asses in our lone Super Bowl victory is one of the highlights of my life for this very reason.

It’s tough, though. Because while I would expect Russell Wilson will keep playing another 10 years or so (and I would expect many of those years to be played in Denver), he’s never going to be better than he is right now. And, right now, he’s still capable of being really good. Even over the last couple of up-and-down seasons, we’ve seen Wilson be as good as he ever was at times. When he’s healthy, when he gets time in the pocket, when his receivers are able to get open. So, if he plays for Denver another 5-10 years, odds are he’s going to be at his best in 2022.

This makes it difficult to root for the Broncos to be terrible, because odds are they’ll be pretty good. Wish (for the Broncos to suck) in one hand and shit in the other, you know?

There’s a nightmare scenario lurking as a result of this trade. That mostly involves the Seahawks bungling the draft picks they got, settling for a mediocre quarterback, and spending the next decade or more trying to find our next franchise quarterback. But, that nightmare scenario also involves the Broncos doing what the Bucs did in 2020 and what the Rams did in 2021: having their brand new quarterbacks take them to – and winning – the Super Bowl.

I don’t know enough about the Broncos’ roster to have much of an opinion. They seem to have some quality offensive weapons. Javonte Williams looks like a superstar-in-waiting at running back. They have interesting wide receivers who have been in the wilderness thanks to their inept quarterback play the last few years. They traded us Fant, but apparently have an even-better young tight end to replace him. Are these weapons on par with what the Bucs and Rams have enjoyed the last two seasons? I don’t think so, but I also don’t think they’re a significant drop-off either.

I’m told the O-Line is good at pass blocking, but I guess we’ll see. I’m told the defense is young and up-and-coming. I’m told Von Miller might re-sign with them. I’m told they have a lot of money to spend in free agency, even while taking on Wilson’s salary. They certainly seem poised to Win Now, as is the popular strategy of our time.

Indeed, they appear to be one of the few teams that looks set everywhere; all they needed was a franchise quarterback, and now they have him.

They even have a new head coach in Nathaniel Hackett, who was Green Bay’s offensive coordinator the last few years. The Packers have been elite – to say the least – in his time there (obviously, with Aaron Rodgers winning back-to-back MVPs). He seems like the ideal head coach for someone like Russell Wilson; someone who will base the offense around his top tier quarterback. What can go wrong?

Well, Russ isn’t Rodgers, for starters. Both can be wildly stubborn, but it does seem that Rodgers has bought into the system the Packers have been running. Will Russ be as amenable to tweaking his game? You have to believe the Broncos are going to utilize what makes Wilson so special – his deep bombs – but he also needs to do a better job of taking what the defense gives him. Settling for the cheap, short stuff. And he’s still going to want to make good use of the running backs, because it’s only going to make his job easier.

Russell Wilson is obsessed with being the best. That means winning football games and championships, but that also means putting up monster stats and winning MVPs. It’s hard to marry the two when the best path for Wilson to win games and championships is for him to do less, not more. Efficiency has always been his very best trait. Sure, he’ll have high TD games, but that might mean 4 passing TDs on 220 yards throwing.

Wilson becomes very predictable the more he throws the ball. He wants to chase those long balls, so all you really need to do is play a Cover-2 and wait for your pressure to get home. He doesn’t run as much as he could, and he’s slower than he used to be; that’s a bad combo for someone who holds the ball as long as he does in trying to find the perfect play.

It’ll be fascinating to see what he does. It’s all on him now. He needs to be the one to adjust. You can give him any offensive coordinator he wants, but if he’s going to continue playing Russell Wilson Ball, then you’re going to get Russell Wilson Results like we’ve seen the last half-decade. He’ll win more than he loses, but he won’t take you to the Super Bowl.

It’s even more fascinating because he has more power than he ever has before. Because Russell Wilson finally got what he wanted. He forced his way off the Seahawks and got to pick his destination. He landed on a team that’s been dying for a competent quarterback and is desperate to contend for another championship. The Broncos need him more than he needs them; he’s only got two years left on his deal. If this season goes poorly, he can always see his contract out and hit free agency. Pete Carroll was never going to cater to Wilson’s whims; I don’t think the Broncos have any other choice. They’ve invested too much.

It could be a disaster. We could see Wilson doing all those frustrating Wilson things that soured our last couple seasons. He could get injured. And we can all imagine the sidelong glances the Seahawks’ brass will give one another, as if to say, “See? This is why we got out from under this when we did.”

It could also be a total triumph for the Broncos. We’ll have to watch him in primetime a ton, we’ll see nonstop highlights on Twitter week-in and week-out, and we very well could see him with tears streaming down his face as confetti falls at the next Super Bowl. It’s all up to Wilson now. Is he smart enough to do what needs to be done?