Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 13

I’m a man on the brink of destruction.

I took another one on the chin this week, losing to Space Forcin’ 178.53 to 170.70.  I had an opportunity, but I froze, and it bit me in the ass.  If I’d picked up Chase Daniel and dropped Derek Carr, that would’ve been the difference.  Space Forcin’ had Daniel going on Thursday, so of course he blew up for 25 points.  There were any number of other issues – JuJu Smith-Schuster scoring on a 90+ yard touchdown against the inept Denver Broncos secondary, Philip Rivers being unstoppable; or on my team getting another crap game from Wentz, AP and Greg Olsen – but the bottom line is if I couldn’t beat a team with Mahomes on BYE and with Kamara getting under 12 points, then I just don’t deserve to win.

So, this is it.  The final week of the regular season.  I’m 5-7, in 6th place.  Still 3rd in points scored; still 2nd in points against.  This year is a clusterfuck of epic proportions.  The team ahead of me is 6-6; I can only pass him if I win and he loses (because I’m way ahead of him in points).  The team behind me is also 5-7.  If I lose and he wins, I’m out of the playoffs.  If he loses, I’m in the playoffs regardless (because, again, I’m way ahead of him in points).

I don’t deserve any of this.  But, I also deserve every single bit of this.  Because I play this stupid fucking game by choice; no one’s putting a gun to my head!  I could quit any time.  And yet I continue to put myself through this.  I’m miserable all day Sunday as I obsessively check score updates; I’m miserable all day Monday as I sweat out yet another close game.  I’m miserable Tuesday through Saturday because I’m in this fucking position of having one of the three best teams in the league while on the outside-looking-in.  I need a miracle and the guy I need to win next week just lost Alex Smith and Jack Doyle.

As for my team, I lost Andy Dalton for the year, so that’s fun.  Thankfully, I wasn’t planning on playing him ever.  Jameis Winston is now my Ride Or Die #2 QB, so I’ll live and die with a potential 4-INT game hanging over my head.  Before Monday Night’s game, I dropped Dalton for Derrick Henry, but I never expected to hang onto him long.  Indeed, I was able to flip him for Philly’s Josh Adams.  It’s Week 13, I’m not gonna make a waiver claim and NOT play him immediately!  So, he slots in for Carson.  I do think Carson will play well against the 49ers – and watch this be the game he scores 3 TDs – but I think Adams is going to be more reliable, more explosive, and more of a workhorse over Seattle’s committee.  Plus, this way, if Carson stinks, I don’t have to sit there being miserable the entire afternoon.

No more BYE weeks to kick me around, so here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz vs. WAS
  • QB2 – Jameis Winston vs. CAR
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill @ OAK
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen @ NE
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott vs. NO
  • RB2 – Josh Adams vs. WAS
  • TE – Greg Olsen @ TB
  • FLEX – Robert Woods @ DET
  • K – Matt Bryant vs. BAL
  • DEF – Chicago @ NYG

My bench is:  Carr, Peterson, Boyd, Carson, Brown, Bell (IR).

This week I’m going up against Korky Butchek again.  He’s the #2 team in the league, in record and in points.  I’m not posting his lineup because I don’t give a fuck anymore.  I’m not obsessing over this thing like I’ve been doing.  My lineups are set in all my leagues, I’ll check before game times to make sure there are no injury/inactive surprises.  But, once 10am on Sunday rolls around, I’m not opening up Yahoo again until Tuesday morning.  I don’t want to know who my opponent has going this week, because I don’t want to feel that pang of misery every time I see one of his guys scores a touchdown.  I just want to watch football and try to enjoy myself.  If I make the playoffs, great.  If I don’t, then whatever, I’ll try to rip shit up in the Consolation Bracket.

I should be favored in all those games – barring more injuries – because I’m far and away better than the bottom 4 teams.  So, watch me lose in the first week.

Every year I tinker with the thought of quitting fantasy football.  That urge is going to be tough to beat after this season if I’m eliminated from the playoffs.  I mean, how is this fun?  What makes this a worthwhile endeavor?  These are the questions I’ll be asking myself in the weeks ahead.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 12

I’m just a mess of a human being.  I went into Monday Night trailing TheGangUnderperforms by a score of 140.75 to 124.75.  I was absolutely ROLLING during the morning games on Sunday.  At one point, I was projected as a 90% favorite to win the week.  Sure, a few of my guys were doing okay, but my heavy hitters were yet to come, and more importantly HIS guys were shitting the bed!  Ben Roethlisberger was at negative points until late in that game against the Jags; Mariota ended his day with less than 2 points total.  Then, that same shit in the bed started hitting the fan.

Predictably, TheGangUnderperforms picked up a tight end to play in Gronk’s place before Sunday.  He ended up picking up Vance McDonald for the Steelers, who MIRACULOUSLY caught a touchdown.  Because of course he did.  He only did that because he was going up against my team!!!  That was double-touchdowns because, obviously, Roethlisberger was the one who threw it.  Things went downhill as the Steelers’ fortunes continued to soar.  Instead of handing off to James Conner at the goalline, Roethlisberger ran in the winning touchdown just to FUCKING spite me!

Anyway, unpredictably, TheGangUnderperforms snuck Doug Baldwin into his lineup before the Thursday game.  He benched Kenny Golladay, which was the good news, but still, Doug had easily his best fantasy game of the season – again – because he was going up against me.

So, there I was, Monday Night.  I had Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods, and a 16-point deficit; he had Kareem Hunt and the aforementioned lead.  It was the Chiefs at the Rams, easily the most hyped matchup in the history of regular season football.  This was a fantasy boon the likes of which we’ve never seen.  So many games were on the line!  So many high-scoring players were in the middle of the action!

And I couldn’t bring myself to watch one single second of it.  Literally the greatest offensive shootout in the history of the NFL – the first time two teams scored over 50 points in the same game – and I was hiding in my room, watching old reruns of The Monkees and Get Smart.

This is what Fantasy Football has brought me to!  It’s literally ruining my life!  But, in my crazy, fucked-up brain, I needed to NOT watch to win my fantasy game.  I went to bed not knowing the result – of either the Rams/Chiefs or TheGangUnderperforms/King Flippy Nips – and I woke up at 4am to immediately hop on my computer to check the results.

Sure, I was disappointed I didn’t see the Best Game Ever, but I won.  DAMMIT, I WON!  186.33 to 160.85!

Blessings to Tyreek Hill, who got me over 44 points.  Tidings of love and joy to Zeke Elliott who got me over 33.  Kudos to Dalton and Chicago for getting over 20.  And a bigtime FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU to Carson Wentz, who finished with -3.60, and single-handedly was the reason why I couldn’t bring myself to watch the game on Monday.  Had he done what he was supposed to, I would’ve had a comfortable lead heading into Monday, and my night would’ve been more enjoyable for it.

To think, a friend of mine on Saturday said he wasn’t sure if Carson Wentz would eventually turn into Drew Brees or Ryan Tannehill (to which I replied, “Oh, he’s WAY better than Ryan Tannehill!” … yeah, except Tannehill didn’t even play this weekend and would’ve gotten me more points).

Anyway, here I am.  5-6 in the standings.  I leapfrogged TheGangUnderperforms to get into 5th place.  I am still comfortably 3rd in total points, and still 2nd in total points against.  That’s the good news, if you can call it good news.

The bad news is I have 2 games to go, and I need help (in more ways than one).  Two of the bottom-feeders won last week in upsets.  That puts them both at 4-7.  Those two teams – as chance would have it – play one another THIS week, meaning one of them is guaranteed to be 5-7 heading into the final week of the regular season.  As you’ll see below, I’m going up against the #1 team (in record, #2 in total points by a large margin over me) and I’ll be projected to lose.  Assuming I do lose, that will drop me to 5-7 and in a tie with one of those bottom-dwelling teams.  In the final week of the regular season, my opponent is the #2 team (in record, #1 in total points by a large margin over me); I will be projected to lose that game as well.  The aforementioned bottom-feeders will have very winnable games that week, so I’m in a real pickle.  Without getting too much further into the weeds, I’ll need certain teams to lose a lot the rest of the way …

Or, I’m effectively in if I can just get an upset win in one of the next two weeks.

Yeah, I’m screwed.

Just one minor move this week.  I swapped Matt Prater out and brought in Matt Bryant.  I don’t love any offensive player going up against the Saints right now – as they’re just STEAMROLLING people left and right – but I think the Falcons will move the ball a little bit.  My big concern is that the Saints get up by such a big score that the Falcons will have to go for nothing but touchdowns all game.  I could’ve legitimately put a zero in my lineup this week; regardless, going forward I like Bryant and that Falcons offense more than Prater and the Lions right now.

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz vs. NYG
  • QB2 – Jameis Winston vs. SF
  • WR1 – Adam Thielen vs. GB
  • WR2 – Tyler Boyd vs. CLE
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott vs. WAS
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson @ DAL
  • TE – Greg Olsen vs. SEA
  • FLEX – Chris Carson @ CAR
  • K – Matt Bryant @ NO
  • DEF – Chicago @ DET

My bench is:  Dalton, Carr, Hill (BYE), Woods (BYE), Brown (BYE), Bell (IR).

I like Andy Dalton at home against Cleveland – and I think it’s highly possible he goes off against them – but I also think the Browns’ defense is a little underrated, and they could force him to look a little mediocre.  I think with Winston (first of all, I need to get SOME sort of value out of that Le’Veon Bell trade, even if I’m shoe-horning it in this fashion), the Bucs have nothing to lose, so they’re going to let it rip.  I could see that game being super high scoring, because the Bucs’ defense is the worst in football, so as per usual they’re going to be throwing the ball a lot.  With Winston, you accept there are going to be turnovers.  The hope is that he’ll also rack up the TDs and yards to outweigh all the shittiness.  Also, who knows, maybe with his career on the line, he steps up and blows the league away.  Bottom line is the upside is higher with Winston over Dalton, while the floor is essentially the same (both of them could throw tons of picks and blow it for me).  Beyond that, with the BYEs what they are, my lineup choices are essentially made for me.

My opponent this week is Space Forcin’.  You may recall he’s the guy who kept Mahomes, Rivers, and Kamara from last year, so he’s obviously pretty fucking stacked.  You may also recall that at full strength, he beat my ass by almost 30 points back in Week 3.

Well, I’ve got some good news and some bad news.  The good news is Mahomes is on BYE this week.  The bad news is that his team is still really fucking stacked and I pretty much have no chance of winning.

I can only make an educated guess at this point as to who Space Forcin’ will put in his lineup, as everyone apparently likes to wait until the last minute to make a fucking decision:

  • QB1 – Philip Rivers vs. ARI
  • QB2 – Joe Flacco vs. OAK
  • WR1 – Davante Adams @ MIN
  • WR2 – JuJu Smith-Schuster @ DEN
  • RB1 – Alvin Kamara vs. ATL
  • RB2 – Marlon Mack vs. MIA
  • TE – George Kittle @ TB
  • FLEX – Aaron Jones @ MIN
  • K – Wil Lutz vs. ATL
  • DEF – Philadelphia vs. NYG

His bench is:  Mahomes (BYE), C.J. Beathard, Miami, Austin Hooper, Duke Johnson.

Joe Flacco against the Raiders would normally be as juicy of a matchup as you can get on a team this stacked.  But, his injury status is looking iffy.  I texted Space Forcin’ to try to get a sense of what his plan is.  Frankly, the QBs on the free agent scrap heap are nothing to write home about.  Tannehill is starting this week, so that rules out Osweiler.  Colt McCoy is probably the best bet of the bunch to at least get points, but someone with a higher waiver priority just made a claim on him.  He has Beathard now, but that’s probably a hail mary of an option, in the hopes that Nick Mullens goes down with injury or otherwise gets benched.  The only guy left in free agency is Taysom Hill, the backup for the Saints who runs a few gadget plays per game.

Could I have dropped Derek Carr this week, now that I’m holding 4 healthy quarterbacks on my roster?  I absolutely could have, but why should I help the best team in the league when I don’t have to?  He’s got enough.  Let me try to get mine.

As it stands, even with just 1 QB starting, he probably has more than enough to beat me.  Rivers is more than capable of shredding the Cards, Adams will be a focal point in a must-win game against the Vikings, Kamara might lead the league in non-quarterback points this week in a shootout against the Falcons, and so on and so forth.  Meanwhile, without Hill and Woods, the upside for my team takes a significant hit, as I’m forced to start both Chris Carson AND Adrian Peterson.  I wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy!

Not Winners & Losers Of The Seahawks’ Game Against The Chargers

It was just one of those days, a perfect storm of ineptitude as the Seahawks were as sloppy and disjointed as I’ve ever seen them.  4/15 on third down and that includes going 3/3 on the first drive of the game (doing the math, that tells me they were 1/12 the rest of the way).  10 penalties for 83 yards (which felt like 183 yards, as they seemingly came at the absolute WORST possible times).  And, ultimately, one back-breaking pick-six that was literally the worst throw I’ve ever seen.  I went to the game and had a perfect vantage of the entire play from behind and to the right; at no point was there EVER a receiver open on that play.  That play was going for 6 points the other way or … there’s no end to that sentence, that’s how fucking easy it was.  Gambling addicts in too deep with the mob don’t choreograph their point-shaving with such blatant disregard for looking totally fucking obvious.  I’m not saying Russell Wilson threw away the game on purpose, but he certainly played like it.  In the end, it added up to a 25-17 defeat that still saw the Seahawks down at the goalline with no time left on the clock and a chance to put the game into overtime if everything broke right.

What I’m Geeked Out About After Eight Games

There isn’t much to praise about this one, so I’ll shout out my buddy who got us these seats:

The second football game I saw in person over the weekend; the first one went a lot better …

As you can see, it didn’t rain a lick (even though it was looking pretty iffy heading into the weekend) and was actually as pleasant of a weather day as you can expect in early November.  What geeked me out the most about this one?  Having a rain jacket and not needing it!

Other Things That Caught My Eye (In A Good Way)

I guess there’s something to be said for the way this team fought back.  Chris Carson, D.J. Fluker, and Bradley McDougald all left the game with injuries and didn’t return (more on them in a later section); you could argue those are 3 of the 5 most important players on this year’s team after Russell Wilson, and we lost them all for a huge swath of the game.  Yet, after looking pretty miserable in giving up 19 points in the first half, the defense stepped up like a champion, giving up 0 in the second half (again, the aforementioned pick-six was the only points the Chargers got).  It looked particularly dicey when our onside kick was totally botched, but our defense stood tall and gave our offense a chance to march down the field.

And, credit where it’s due, after that pick-six, Wilson led the Seahawks right down the field for a touchdown that took a little too long (nearly 5 minutes, not coming until AFTER the 2-minute warning).  And, he once again worked his magic in getting us back down to the goalline on the final drive of the game.  First, with a fantastic long throw that the Chargers defender had to interfere with to keep us from catching it; then with an untimed down on a dart to David Moore that he absolutely should’ve caught.  I mean, there’s no guarantee that we would’ve made the 2-point conversion, but we’ll never know what could’ve been, now will we?

Let’s Talk About Competitions Injuries Again

This is bad, you guys.  I noted it on Twitter this week, and it’s apparently a real problem:  Chris Carson is fragile.

He’s had 2 games this year with 20 or more carries.  After the first time, he missed the next game with an injury.  The second time was last week, and lo and behold, there he was on the injury report again this week.  He tried to give it a go – and looked pretty great in the early going of this one – but ultimately never came out after halftime.  And, say what you want about Mike Davis, but he’s no Chris Carson.

To make matters worse, we lost D.J. Fluker and had to roll with Joey Hunt at right guard.  We’re 0-3 in games where Fluker has missed some or all of the game, which I’d say makes him pretty fucking important to this team’s chances.  From the sound of initial reports, it looks like this could be a long-term issue, which fucking sucks considering we’re going into the hardest stretch of our season.  Anyone looking forward to the prospects of playing the Rams or Panthers on the road without Fluker in there manhandling fools?  Because I’m not!

Finally, what can you say about Bradley McDougald that hasn’t already been said?  We already lost Earl Thomas, but McDougald was playing like a superstar both with and without him!  He’s easily our most important secondary player and the dropoff from him to Delano Hill is tragic.  The defense is already pretty shaky as it is (see:  all those long plays the Chargers were able to rip off in the first half, either with busted coverages or terrible tackling angles) and losing our best tackler and coverage guy in the secondary is only going to make matters 1,000-times worse.

Other Things That Caught My Eye (In A Bad Way)

I mean, where do you start?!

That was the worst I’ve ever seen Russell Wilson.  Forget the pick-six, which was bad, don’t get me wrong.  But, he was off-target ALL GAME.  How many 3rd downs did he blow single-handedly by over-throwing or under-throwing wide open receivers?  How many 13-yard sacks did he take by running backwards like a moron?  I know he threw all those picks in the NFC Championship Game, but that gets overlooked because of how we came back to win.  But, this loss is on Russell more than anyone else, and he needs to wear it this week.

Let’s see, how about the idiotic penalties on our offensive line?  How many times do you need to get flagged for leaping into a pile of bodies before you’re going to figure it the fuck out?  Stop being so fucking blatant with your attempts to injure opponents in the guise of being “aggressive”.  It’s not cool!  Be Smarter!

And seriously, what the fuck was up with all those deep plays our defense gave up?  That game was damn near the opposite of what I expected.  The Chargers are kings at dinking and dunking you to death, but Rivers was able to hit guys wide open deep down field, and if he wasn’t doing that, then Melvin Gordon was running through the biggest holes I’ve ever seen!

That’s another thing:  why would you sit your best run-stuffing defensive tackle?  Poona Ford’s presence was sorely missed.  Someone fucked up royally in deciding the inactives this week, because clearly the Chargers took advantage of our pisspoor run defense.  22 carries for 160 yards.

Bully for the defense for adjusting in the second half, but that was as bad as I’ve ever seen THEM in the first half.  This was 2009 Seahawks level of defensive play for 30 minutes.  Unacceptable!

No individual shout-outs, because if you suck as a team you get ripped as a team.  And this team deserves to get ripped.  Everyone except Michael Dickson, who punted like a champ.  And believe me, we needed every bit of it.

Also, fuck you Seabass for yet another missed field goal.  God damn are we sick of your bullshit.

The Seahawks Just Can’t Beat The Chargers … Or Can They?

The Seahawks are 4-1 in their last 5 games, and with every passing week, they impress me more and more.  Heading into this year, my opinion of this team was as low as it can get.  So low, in fact, that they weren’t even BAD enough for me!  An 8-8 season is a million times worse than a completely winless season, because not only do you miss out on the playoffs, but you also have a crappy draft slot.  Starting 0-2 did nothing to dissuade me; it just reinforced my toxic beliefs.

Then, we beat the Cowboys in our home opener.  Okay, fine, but who are they?  The Cowboys are just as mediocre!

Then, we went on the road and barely beat the Cardinals, who were giving their rookie quarterback his first start.  A win is a win is a win and all, but we made Josh Rosen look like the second coming of, I dunno, Andy Dalton!  He’s since proven that he’s pretty dreadful (so far, in his very young NFL career at least), so our victory doesn’t look any more impressive.

Following our return to .500, we played the Rams super tough at home.  Now THAT was an eye-opening performance!  That loss was probably the best game we played all year.

Finally, we went to London, killed the Raiders, had our BYE, and followed that up with a dominating performance on the road in Detroit.  That’s three consecutive great games by the Seahawks, who have taken their new rushing-focused identity and (ahem) run with it.

All the comparisons to the 2012 season are absolutely justified.  The difference here is that our quarterback is no longer a rookie; he’s one of the best in the league (by the same token, our defense isn’t exactly riddled with future hall of famers like it was back then, but that’s neither here nor there).

It seems like every week, the challenge gets ramped up just a little bit more.  Playing the Rams tough is one thing.  Going all the way to London and crushing it is another step in our progression.  And, earning a comfortable road victory against a playoff hopeful like the Lions is even better.  Now, we’ve got the Chargers, who are just a little bit better than the Lions, before attempting to tackle yet another even-tougher task next week against the Rams (this time down in L.A.).

In recent years, if you told me to pick one team that the Seahawks absolutely can’t beat, I would’ve told you it’s the Chargers.  I don’t totally understand where this thought process came from, because now that I actually look back on this rivalry, there isn’t a ton of evidence to support this belief.

These two teams have played one another exactly once in the regular season in the Russell Wilson era.  That was in week 2 of the 2014 season.  We were at the height of our powers (maybe that’s part of it), the game was down in San Diego (in 100+ degree weather), and we lost 30-21.  Aside from our playoff defeats, that one stands out above everything else as a real eye-opener for me.  Knowing what we know now, the 2014 Seahawks went back to the Super Bowl and were oh-so-close to repeating as NFL champs.  We were smack dab in the middle of our would-be Dynasty run … and we absolutely got clobbered.

Russell Wilson was okay; he didn’t turn the ball over and he threw a couple touchdowns.  The running game was abandoned early and often, which was the usual Darrell Bevell M.O. in our post-title years.  We were pretty bad – but not totally inept – with a 3/9 conversion rate on 3rd/4th downs.  It was just one of those games that the Chargers controlled, and no matter what we did on defense, we couldn’t adjust to make the critical stops.  They were 10/17 on third down, and held the ball for over 42 minutes in the T.O.P. battle.  Rivers was 28/37 with 284 yards and 3 TDs (all to Antonio Gates, who absolutely shredded us all game); and in spite of 3 Chargers fumbles, none of them were recovered by the Seahawks.  It became – in my mind, at least – The Blueprint for how to beat the Seahawks at our very best:  dink and dunk, convert 3rd downs, score touchdowns, take care of the football, and put it away late before Russell Wilson has a chance to work his magic.

Remember, this was in a period where the Seahawks NEVER lost by more than 1 score.  So, a 9-point defeat really stands out!  But, it’s just one game.  Why have I built this team up so big in my mind?

On top of that one regular season game, there have been 5 pre-season games between the Seahawks and Chargers in the Russell Wilson era.  Obviously, Philip Rivers doesn’t play a lot in these games, so wins and losses don’t really matter.  Let’s take a quick look at how the Chargers fared with Rivers in the game in those meaningless contests:

  • 2013 – 1 drive, 13 plays, 74 yards, 7:25, field goal
  • 2014 – 1 drive, 9 plays, 37 yards, 4:51, punt
  • 2015 – 1 half (5 drives), 3 punts, 2 field goals
  • 2017 – 1 drive, 13 plays, 75 yards, 7:15, TD pass
  • 2018 – 2 drives, 1 punt, 1 TD run

So, we’ve got the regular season defeat, a few bend-don’t-break performances, and a couple drives the last two years that resulted in touchdowns.  I get that they’re able to put out some extended-play drives on us, but for the most part we’ve held our own in the pre-season.  Without knowing how the rest of those games would’ve gone with Rivers in there full time, we’ll never know the true outcomes.

In other words, I’ve made the Chargers out to be the Boogeyman when really they’re just a tree brushing up against my window on a dark and stormy night.

I did this last week, so let’s run it back:  what have the 2018 Chargers done that makes them so great?

They beat a bevy of bad teams, including the Bills, 49ers, Raiders, Browns, and Titans.  They lost at home to the Chiefs and across town to the Rams.  They’re 5-2, but it’s not exactly a murderer’s row of talent.  Their best win is probably the Titans (who have a solid defense, but not a whole lot going on on offense).  If they won in Seattle, it would be far-and-away their greatest feat to date.

I still think Rivers poses a unique and difficult matchup for our defense, but I don’t think he’s totally unstoppable.  They absolutely have the talent on offense to do what they did to us in 2014, but at the same time, it’s not like our defense is going to be demoralized by 100+ degree heat.  And, with them missing some starters on defense, I don’t see why the Seahawks should be held in check from doing what we want to do on offense.

A buddy and I were talking about this upcoming 4-game stretch the Seahawks are facing.  In looking at our remaining schedule, you figure the Seahawks should be 3-0 against the 49ers and Cards the rest of the way.  That gets us to 7 wins; we would just need to wrangle 3 more to get to 10 and a likely wild card berth.  My friend thinks we’ll lose our next 4 (or, at the very least, he can’t envision picking the Seahawks to win any of those games).  I think we’ve at least got 1-3 in us, with our most likely chance for a win coming up this week.  To wit:

  • vs. Chargers
  • @ Rams
  • vs. Packers
  • @ Panthers

The more I think about those road games, the more impossible they look on paper.  And I know I’m never confident in a game where A-Rod is going against us.  That leaves the Chargers.  The over-rated, mistake-prone Chargers.

Coming into today, I had an X marked next to the Chargers for this one.  But, I’m changing my tune.  I think the Seahawks keep doing what they’ve been doing, and they prevail in the end.  The 12’s are hungry for more winning, and I think our presence will be felt in this one, as the train keeps on a-rollin’.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 3

My Rationale Beforehand

Ol’ King Flippy Nips really needed that win last week.  We SHOULD be 2-0 and one of the scariest teams in the league, but instead we’re the best of the 1-1 teams (#2 in total points overall) and in a dogfight against the top scoring team in the league, the 2-0 Space Forcin’.

Since there’s hashtag No Time To Sleep, there were a couple more roster moves to sort out this week.  First thing’s first, I used my dreadful waiver priority (I want to say I was 8th out of 10) to pick up Ryan FitzMagic.  I figured after his week 1 heroics, it was all a fluke, and probably the Saints’ defense isn’t that good this year.  However, he threw for 4 more TDs against the Super Bowl champion Eagles, so this HAS to be for real, right?  He’s got 94 points in two weeks in our league!  Maybe it’s like a Case Keenum situation from last year, where a veteran comes from out of nowhere to take the league by storm!

Plus, he’s going up against the Steelers on Monday Night this week, their defense looks atrocious, so I feel better about FitzMagic than I do Derek Carr (at Miami, whose defense COULD be secretly good) or Andy Dalton (at Carolina, whose defense is usually good when healthy).

To make room for the magic man, I once again waived Kenny Stills, after a 3.70-point week.  Bottom line:  Miami’s offense is never going to be explosive enough to want to count on him week-to-week, so it’s all going to be Boom or Bust with this guy and I just don’t need that in my life right now.

Early Wednesday morning, I was up at 3:30am, a few hours after the waiver claims went through, looking to do even more tinkering.  See, this week, Carson Wentz is set to make his triumphant return, so there’s really no need to keep Nick Foles – a fifth quarterback – on the roster (frankly, even 4 QBs is too many, considering how small our benches are).  In looking to boost my skill position depth, I picked up Detroit’s Kenny Golladay, who has been terrific when healthy, and obviously plays for a more explosive offense than Miami’s.  He’s not just a big play, touchdown-dependent receiver; through two weeks he’s averaging over 10 targets per game, and is on a team that should frequently find itself behind and needing to throw their way back into games.  Golladay won’t start for me now, but if he keeps it up, I could see him supplanting Demaryius Thomas sooner or later for my FLEX spot.

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz vs. IND
  • QB2 – Ryan FitzMagic vs. PIT
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill vs. SF
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen vs. BUF
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott @ SEA
  • RB2 – Leonard Fournette vs. TEN
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson vs. GB
  • TE – Jordan Reed vs. GB
  • FLEX – Demaryius Thomas @ BAL
  • K – Robbie Gould @ KC
  • DEF – Chicago @ AZ

My bench is:  Dalton, Carr, Adrian Peterson Fournette, Robert Woods, Golladay, and Greg Olsen.

I like almost all of these matchups.  My only concern with Thielen is that the Vikings will be up so big that they’ll eventually stop throwing the ball, and if Thielen doesn’t get his early and often, it could be a surprisingly quiet day.  Obviously, you never know what’s going to happen – any one of these guys could throw up some duds – but I’ll take my chances with this lineup against just about anybody’s.

It’s nice having Fournette back in the fold, since I don’t love Peterson’s chances against the Packers.  I wouldn’t mind playing either of those backup receivers, as they both figure to be in high-scoring games, but when in doubt, go with the #1 receiver in Thomas.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:  the neverending disappointment that is Leonard Fournette’s injury-riddled body reared its ugly head once again.  Even though he was able to practice in a limited capacity all week, the Jags are holding him out yet another game.  My expected points took a pretty significant hit with Peterson not likely to get much of anything going against the Packers (since the Redskins figure to be playing from behind all game and trying to throw their way back into it).  Here’s the real bummer of not having a deeper bench and a bigger stable of backup running backs.  If only I could’ve injected one of my spare wide receivers into this game!

As I noted, I’m going up against the best team in the league through two weeks.  I’m second overall in points and Space Forcin’ has outscored me by 48.81 (to put it in context, I’m closer to the 5th place team in total points than I am to him in first).  His keepers were Mahomes, Rivers, and Kamara (i.e. the three best fucking keepers in the league; i.e. the 2nd, 5th, and 8th best players in our league).  While his bench is pretty suspect, he’s rounded out by some high-ceiling, high-floor players that will make all of our lives a living hell as long as they remain healthy.

It should be pointed out that the guy running Space Forcin’ has had my number in recent seasons; even if his teams suck, he seems to really get it up for kicking my ass.  So, I can love my guys and I can love my matchups until the cows come home, but it’s not going to make me even remotely confident as we head into this week.  In the next section, we’ll talk about how my week went.

***

Week 3 Results

And here we are, a 1-2 record with the second-most points scored in the entire league.  This is my fantasy fucking life.

Here’s what Space Forcin’ looked like, as they thoroughly destroyed me, 192.14 to 166.90:

  • QB1 – Philip Rivers @ LAR
  • QB2 – Patrick Mahomes vs. SF
  • WR1 – JuJu Smith-Schuster @ TB
  • WR2 – Davante Adams @ WAS
  • RB1 – Alvin Kamara @ ATL
  • RB2 – Jordan Howard @ AZ
  • TE – O.J. Howard vs. PIT
  • FLEX – Quincy Enunwa @ CLE
  • K – Will Lutz @ ATL
  • DEF – Philadelphia vs. IND

His worst player was his defense, who still got him 7 points.  His kicker out-scored 6 of my guys, including Carson Wentz, who just couldn’t get it going against Indy.  Getting stuck with Adrian Peterson was actually a blessing in disguise, but I still went into Monday Night down 20 points.  He had two guys going, and all the FitzMagic in the world couldn’t get me over the hump.

Just brutal, all around.  His lineup is as stacked as they come for 2018.  The key for me was always going to be Mahomes feeding the ball to Tyreek Hill, who instead had easily the worst game of his season so far.  On the plus side, maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick is a viable QB2 going forward after all?  We’ll see how the Bucs respond now that Jameis Winston is off of his suspension.

I still like my team, but this shit is getting real frustrating.  I need to bank some early-season wins and instead I keep running into buzzsaws!

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 2

  • See my Intro to understand what this is all about.
  • See my Draft Recap to learn where my team started.
  • See my Week 1 Recap to get all caught up.

My Rationale Beforehand

Predictably, panic has set in as King Flippy Nips looks to rebound from a heartbreaking week 1 defeat (blowing a 20-point lead because Derek Carr sucks).  The longer I go without winning a game, the more panic moves I’m going to make.

There’s been a little roster shuffling already.  For starters, Yahoo has let me put Greg Olsen in my IR spot, as he figures to be out for a number of weeks.  This freed up a spot which I used to put in a waiver claim on Nick Foles.  At this point, it’s anybody’s guess as to when Carson Wentz comes back, and I can’t rely on Dalton and Carr alone to get me through.  I need quarterbacks I can COUNT on.  Foles and the Eagles are going to Tampa this week and the Bucs’ defense doesn’t impress-ah me much (as Shania Twain might also agree).  After some first week struggles, I fully expect Foles to bounce back, so he’s going right into my starting lineup in place of Derek Carr (who is going to Denver in another impossible defensive matchup).

That leaves my other QB spot with Dalton, playing Thursday Night against the Ravens.  I don’t love it.  I have no data on this, but it feels like Dalton always shits the bed whenever he’s playing in a nationally-televised game (Bengals fans, back me up here!).  I’m trying not to over-react to the Ravens’ defense, as they had a cupcake matchup against the Bills last week, and literally any defense would’ve looked at least almost as good.  I’m sticking with Dalton even though I made another move this week, dropping my beloved sleeper Kenny Stills to pick up Joe Flacco.  Flacco had a great week 1 as well, but again, I’m trying not to over-react to the fact that he played against Buffalo’s defense.  I think Cincy’s defense is a lot better, plus the Bengals are at home.  So, for now, I’ll stash Flacco on my bench (also, not for nothing, but my opponent might’ve been in the market for someone like Flacco, as he only has 2 healthy & active QBs, and Mariota is questionable this week; so preventing my rival from filling his squad is always ideal), and mix-and-match between all my QBs going forward based on matchups until I can settle on two guys I can trust.

For what it’s worth, I have a ton of wide receivers on my roster.  I have to start Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen every week, and I really like Demaryius Thomas (who will be my FLEX guy for the foreseeable future).  After that, I had two receivers on my bench – Stills and Robert Woods – and I just like Woods a LITTLE bit more (plus he’s on an offense I know is going to be great all year, while I’m still unsure about Miami long term).  So, we’ll see.  I do expect Stills to be picked up by someone, but I think there’s a chance we’ve seen the best out of him already.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE – No one in my league picked up Stills on waivers, so I grabbed him as a free agent and re-waived Flacco.  The perfect crime!

Anyway, here’s my lineup:

  • QB1 – Andy Dalton vs. BAL
  • QB2 – Nick Foles @ TB
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill @ PIT
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen @ GB
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott vs. NYG
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson vs. IND
  • TE – Jordan Reed vs. IND
  • FLEX – Demaryius Thomas vs. OAK
  • K – Robbie Gould vs. DET
  • DEF – Chicago vs. SEA

My bench consists of Carr, Flacco, Wentz, Woods, Stills, and Leonard Fournette.

The big choice this week was AP over Fournette.  Well, given Peterson’s dominant week 1 performance, combined with the fact that Fournette got injured in last week’s game and didn’t practice all week, sort of made up my mind for me.  Fournette was slated to be a true Game Time Decision, and unfortunately his game started in the afternoon, while AP’s game started in the morning.  So, I had to go with the sure thing and just pray the Jags would give Fournette a week off to rest.  That being said, don’t believe for a minute that I didn’t obsessively check Twitter for any last-second updates on Fournette’s condition.

This week, my opponent is TheGangUnderperforms, which I’m assuming is some sort of It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia reference(?), crossed with his usual brand of self-effacing humor.  He’s the 9th place team in our league – having scored the second-fewest points in week 1 – so it sounds like his team’s name is as fitting as they come.  He’s the poor sap in our league who’s stuck with Le’Veon Bell, with the unfortunate kick in the crotch that he failed to draft James Conner (even though, in real life, he’s a big Steelers fan and should’ve known better).  I should also point out, before week 1, I offered him a trade of Adrian Peterson and Robert Woods for Bell (who made it known he wasn’t going to come back to the team in time for the game) and he shot me down!  It must be his immense pride that has prevented him from crawling back to me asking for a re-do on that decision.  When will Bell return to the Steelers?  Maybe never!  And here I’ll be, reaping the rewards of a rejuvenated Adrian Peterson (with the security blanket of a Robert Woods on my bench for potential BYE week & injury fill-ins).

In spite of some injuries and depth issues on his bench, TheGangUnderperforms still has a pretty talented squad that is FULLY capable of wiping the floor with my ass.  In the next section, we’ll get to the results.

***

Week 2 Results

The week got off to a tremendous start!  Andy Dalton is a wonderland!  He nearly doubled the points of Flacco and absolutely doubled his projected point total.  On top of that, my opponent’s kicker – Justin Tucker – only managed 7 points, three below expected.  I started the week a coin flip, and after Thursday I was a 65% favorite heading into the weekend.

TheGangUnderperforms’ lineup looked like this:

  • QB1 – Ben Roethlisberger vs. KC
  • QB2 – Marcus Mariota vs. HOU
  • WR1 – Julio Jones vs. CAR
  • WR2 – Larry Fitzgerald @ LAR
  • RB1 – Kareem Hunt @ PIT
  • RB2 – Jamaal Williams vs. MIN
  • TE – Gronk @ JAX
  • FLEX – Emmanuel Sanders vs. OAK
  • K – Justin Tucker @ CIN
  • DEF – N.Y. Jets vs. MIN

It looked marginally dicey early when Ben Roethlisberger threw non-stop on a pathetic Chiefs defense; fortunately I was saved because Mariota didn’t play and my opponent didn’t have any room for any other QBs on his roster (aside from the rookies he has on his bench who aren’t starting yet, and Jameis Winston, who’s still suspended).  Nevertheless, Roethlisberger scored enough points to cover both QB spots, as he pushed 50 on the day.

TheGangUnderperforms didn’t have any help anywhere else though.  Gronk and Fitzgerald had bad days, Julio stayed true to the team name and underperformed, and everyone else was just sort of average.

My team, meanwhile, did even better than the week before!

Foles and Carr were about the same, so that didn’t bite me in the ass as both had around 20.  My receivers – Thielen and Hill – absolutely torched the competition once again, for a combined 50+ points.  My kicker doubled his kicker; my Chicago defense had a field day; Zeke had a solid game.  And, while AP, Demaryius, and Reed didn’t impress, they also gave me SOMETHING, in the range of 6-10 points.

All told, it was a 194.59 – 130.90 drubbing!

I’m currently in 3rd place with a 1-1 record, though I have the second-most points in the league behind the guy who kept Mahomes, Rivers, and Kamara (clearly getting more out of his keepers than anyone else in the league).  As chance would have it, I have to go up against that juggernaut this very upcoming week.  Luckily, it looks like I get Carson Wentz back, as well as (hopefully) Leonard Fournette.

Should Seahawks Fans Lowkey Be Rooting For A Russell Wilson Injury This Pre-Season?

As I try to do most years, I read through the Deadspin “Why Your Team Sucks” post on the 2018 Seattle Seahawks.  As usual, it’s pretty funny and forces me to deal with some hard truths about this team (there are also ways to pick apart its logic, but in what way is that fun?).  At the end, they always have a list of comments from fans (pulled from Tweets or comments sections, I’m assuming), and it’s after reading through a bunch of these where I start to get bored and check out.  But, one comment caught my eye.  Someone named Trevor said, “This team is just a Russell Wilson preseason ACL tear away from an 0-16 season.”

That caught my eye because A) it’s absolutely true; can you imagine this team with Austin Davis or Alex McGough starting all 16 games?  They’d make the 1992 Seahawks look like the greatest team in the history of football!

Also, B) I had some thoughts along this line of thinking earlier this week.

I was thinking about this Seahawks rebuild that we’re all involved in right now – even though no one wants to call it a rebuild, so call it whatever the fuck you want; just know that this Seahawks team isn’t as good as the one that was contending for championships from 2012-2016 – and wondering what’s the best way to rebuild?

In my opinion, you want to milk as much as you can out of your championship window, then you want one season where you suffer a total collapse, then you want to draft the best player on the planet and snap right back into the next championship window.  Kinda like how the Colts were great with Peyton Manning, then sucked for a year when he was injured, then landed on Andrew Luck (which, jury is still out, but if he comes back to full health, he’s still a guy that can lead that team to the playoffs on the regular … even if he’s not as good a quarterback as Russell Wilson).  What’s the best rebuild in the history of North American professional sports?  Assuming you’re not the Packers, and you don’t have one hall of fame quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) pre-selected and on your roster already when you decide to move on from your previous hall of fame quarterback (Brett Favre), then you need the next best thing:  one year of total ineptitude.  The best rebuild of all time is the San Antonio Spurs of the 1990s.

Ever since David Robinson was taken in 1989, the Spurs were a legitimately great team, frequently winning 50+ games and making the playoffs every single year, except one.  That was the 1996-1997 season, when David Robinson got injured and only played in 6 games; that year the Spurs went 20-62.  The Spurs were so bad, they earned the #1 overall pick the following year.  Who did they draft?  Tim Duncan.  They proceeded to make the playoffs for 21 years (and counting) and have been the model franchise in the NBA, winning 5 titles in the process.  I’d say that’s a pretty fucking successful rebuild, and all they had to do was suffer one year where they were the absolute worst.

Would you trade one year of Russell Wilson’s prime, if you knew the Seahawks would go on to make the playoffs 21 years in a row (and counting) and win 5 Super Bowl championships?  I’m not promising that will happen, but go with me a little bit.

The 2018 Seahawks aren’t going to do anything.  You know it, I know it.  Because it’s the pre-season, and games that count haven’t actually started yet, we’re deluding ourselves into believing they’ll be interesting – and that there’s always a chance when you have a quarterback as good as Russell Wilson – but he can’t literally do everything.  He can’t even play defense!  History is littered with great quarterbacks who failed to do anything with mediocre teams.  Hell, that’s Dan Marino’s entire career!  That’s Philip Rivers’ entire career!  That’s the last decade for Drew Brees (post-Super Bowl), all but a few years for Brett Favre and John Elway and Steve Young and on and on and on.  There’s only one Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson is no Tom Brady (saying nothing of the fact that Pete Carroll is no Bill Belichick).  The best case scenario for the 2018 Seahawks is that enough of these prospects pan out that we jump ahead of schedule and MAYBE contend for a playoff spot in 2019; but really, it feels like a 2+ year thing in even the most optimistic of alternate universes.

Plus, all the while, we have a healthy Russell Wilson pulling our asses out of the fire just enough to get us to 8-8 this year.  And every year after that until we luck into some magical 3-year run of drafting where we can supplement this team with talent becoming of his elite greatness.  Do you trust this front office to re-build a championship roster armed with a consistent string of draft picks in the 18-20 range?  Where we’ll ultimately trade some selections away in hopes of beefing up a depthless roster, while trading down enough times to re-fill our draft coffers?

It’s no coincidence that this team was at its best in the draft – 2010-2012 – when they were picking in the top 10 or early teens (even 2011 was mediocre when you consider our first two picks were James Carpenter and John Moffitt).

I’ll be the first to admit I have no idea what the 2019 NFL Draft will have to offer, but I can say this:  an 0-16 Seahawks team with the #1 overall pick should be able to get some REALLY good players.  On top of which, ACLs (and the like) heal faster than ever before in the history of the league, with advancements in surgeries and rehab techniques.  Russell Wilson, by all accounts, should be back in plenty of time to start the 2019 season.  On top of which, 2019 will be the final year of his deal, and a significant injury might just reduce the cost it takes to extend him long term.

I mean, can you imagine this roster in 2019, plus whoever the best pass rusher in college is right now?  Plus, whatever stud we get at the top of the second round?  Can you imagine what this front office would be able to do, armed with high picks in every round?  Maybe we trade down from #1 to #3 and pick up a bounty of extra picks in the process, and STILL get that stud pass rusher!

Look, I’m just spitballing here.  Obviously, I’m not ACTUALLY rooting for Russell Wilson to get injured.  But, I’ll be damned if I’m not sick to my stomach at the thought of an endless string of .500 finishes as we squander the majority of our franchise quarterback’s prime in search of diamonds in the rough that turn out to be turds on the field.  Maybe one year of a total collapse is just the thing to speed up the whole ordeal.

Not Winners & Losers Of The Seahawks’ Second Pre-Season Game 2018

The Seahawks had the rare Saturday night pre-season game over the weekend, a 24-14 loss to the Chargers down in Los Angeles.  We saw our starters through the entire first half, watching many a promising drive end in futility, with a late comeback attempt for naught.  The only injury was to D.J. Fluker’s finger, which is a good sign.  Without further ado, let’s get into it.

What I’m Geeked Out About After Two Meaningless Pre-Season Games

Russell Wilson and Chris Carson look absolutely phenomenal.  Unfortunately, due to mistakes around them, we haven’t seen the fruits of their labor translating into a ton of touchdowns, but words can’t express how excited I’ll be when we finally get to see full games out of these guys.  This offense has the potential to really be something, and a lot of that production is going to fall to these two guys.

I think the receiving corps is in good shape.  We haven’t even seen Doug Baldwin yet, and as long as his injury isn’t worse than expected, we’ll get him back for the regular season (you know, when the games actually matter).  Tyler Lockett was given this game off, but he looks fast and ready to break out this year.  The real question marks come when you look beyond our top two guys, and it’s there that I’m really happy.  Jaron Brown had a couple of really nice catches for 74 yards, and David Moore had a couple of his own, for 71 yards.  With Brandon Marshall drawing the attention he draws (and as a weapon in the red zone), I think these five guys should all make the opening day roster, and I think they should all prove to be pretty productive (Moore in particular, as his role could expand even further after this season, if Lockett signs elsewhere).

Also, how do you not freak the fuck out about Rasheem Green?  One week after he netted 1.5 sacks and a tackle for loss against the Colts, he came back with 1.5 sacks and 2 tackles for loss against the Chargers!  Requisite grain of salt and all that, this is a guy who without question can play in this league and be productive for this team right out of the gate.  Never a better sight for these sore eyes have I seen in quite some time.

Other Things That Caught My Eye (In A Good Way)

Quinton Jefferson looks like the real deal (and just in the knick of time, too).  He might never be a Pro Bowler, but just being a viable member of a D-Line rotation is all I’m looking for.

Naz Jones, however, may indeed one day be a Pro Bowler!  He needs to stay healthy first, and if he does, watch out NFL!  He could be one of the surprises of this season.

C.J. Prosise wasn’t especially effective, but he played most of the second half of this game and didn’t have to leave due to injury.  That’s something!  Now, we don’t know how his body responded – I’m still holding my breath, in case you couldn’t tell – but all signs point to him being okay.  Let’s keep this going!

Finally, while still raw-looking, Alex McGough looked better.  He had a nifty little touchdown drive late in the game, with a nice touch pass to the back of the endzone.  Still more checkdowns than you’d like to see in a game if it actually mattered, but as far as a rookie backup quarterback is concerned, as long as he’s avoiding mistakes, he’s okay in my book.

Let’s Talk About Competitions

It’s time for the punter competition to end.  John Schneider needs to take Old Yeller Jon Ryan out back behind the barn and put him out of his misery.  It’s been a good run, MVP, but it’s time to go in another direction.  Michael Dickson is the future, and by God, might indeed be the next Seahawks jersey I end up buying!

The kicker competition is still alive and well, and honestly probably too close to call.  They both made some pretty short-range kicks, and no one attempted a PAT due to the score being what it was.  It’s unfortunate that the #2 and #3 offenses are so fucking inept, as it’s seemingly impossible for these guys to get us into scoring position at all!  Heading to Minnesota this week, obviously, isn’t a great opportunity to allow the offense to bust out, as that’s one of the deeper teams in the league.

Finally, as I alluded to, a pretty mixed bag when it comes to the QB2 spot.  Austin Davis had two drives and went nowhere.  He sucks.  That having been said, I don’t know if I’m willing to throw this competition away just yet and hand the keys to McGough.  Obviously, the team is pretty confident that they know what they’ve got in Davis, so they’re giving the bulk of the free time to McGough to gauge his development.  As he is a 7th rounder, you know the team isn’t expecting a lot from him, hence the rumors about the Seahawks offering a 2nd rounder to acquire Indy’s backup.  That’s obviously a terrible idea – as why would you give up something so valuable just for a guy who ideally will never see the field in the regular season? – especially when you consider we don’t even have another 2nd round pick until 2020!  I think that rumor ended up being false, but nevertheless I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Seahawks in the market for a new backup as teams start cutting guys later this month.

Other Things That Caught My Eye (In A Bad Way)

This section could also be called, “God Damn It Germain Ifedi”.

What the fuck is wrong with this guy?  Seriously!?  I mean, it’s pretty plain to see that we’re not going to get even a minimal amount of improvement out of him compared to a season ago, which is just a disaster.  Hell, at this point I can’t even promise he won’t get WORSE!  His play, in EVERY facet of the game (but in particular his pass protection), is just the fucking worst.  Now, obviously, the other four starting linemen look pretty okay, so if Russell Wilson just has to avoid one free rusher per play (as opposed to the usual 4 or 5 we’d let run wild in prior seasons) we should still be able to move the ball.  But, this nevertheless puts our most important player in a precarious spot, and the odds of Wilson suffering an injury because of Ifedi’s ineptitude increases tenfold.  We may look back on the right tackle injuries in that Indy game as a serious turning point in our season, on par with the George Fant injury a year ago.

Obviously, you have to hate that Will Dissly penalty, and you just hope it’s something he’ll correct going forward.  This team can’t afford mental errors, as it’s less able to overcome them than in years past when we had more star players.

Ditto the Chris Carson fumble at the goalline.  We need touchdowns, not field goals; and we need points, not turnovers.

Predictably, Philip Rivers carved us up early in the game.  I thought the defense did a better job of settling down after that first drive, but the run defense was as sorry as I’ve ever seen it.  There’s a slight chance this team’s pass rush will be better than I expected, but there’s a very good chance this team’s run defense will be much worse.  What worries me is if the pass rush is indeed terrible, and so is the run defense.  Could be a LONG season for that side of the ball.

I’m also going to bemoan the lack of turnovers the Seahawks generated, because I still think this team will need them to thrive.  The secondary in particular looked far from impressive.  Just a lot for this defense to work on, and not a lot of time left to do it.

The Seahawks’ 2018 Schedule Is Here (And I Don’t Care)

Now is usually the time I express my pleasure/get all up in arms over the newly released Seahawks schedule.  But, I’m on record as expecting an 8-8 season, so who gives a damn if a formerly west-coast game against the Raiders has been placed in London for no good God damn reason?  To wit:

  • @ Denver
  • @ Chicago (Mon)
  • Dallas
  • @ Arizona
  • L.A. Rams
  • @ Oakland (London) (10am) (Sort Of)
  • BYE
  • @ Detroit (10am)
  • L.A. Chargers
  • @ L.A. Rams
  • Green Bay (Thurs)
  • @ Carolina (10am)
  • San Francisco (SNF)
  • Minnesota (Mon)
  • @ San Francisco
  • Kansas City (SNF)
  • Arizona

So, one thing I actually kinda like is having 5 of the first 7 games (with a BYE week squeezed in) on the road; meaning obviously that 6 of the last 9 games are at home (including all the second half primetime games).  The entire month of December, we only have to travel as far as San Francisco!  4 of those 5 games are in Seattle!

As far as 10am games go, only three isn’t too bad.  I was pretty shocked to see a whopping 5 primetime games (2 Monday, 2 Sunday, 1 Thursday), considering we weren’t all that world-beating last year.  Someone made the point on Twitter and I wholeheartedly agree:  that’s the power of an elite, Top 5 quarterback.  I still think at least one of those Sunday Night games will be flexed out; if I had to bet the family farm on one prediction this season, that would be it.

One thing I noticed is that the more difficult games look to be at home, which is always a plus.  We play the NFC North, and the best two teams (presumably) are Green Bay and Minnesota, so getting them both in Seattle is pretty fortunate.  Not that the Bears or Lions will be pushovers, but you get my drift.  I particularly like seeing Green Bay having to come all the way out here for a Thursday game; FUCK YOU PACKERS!  Then, we play the AFC West and get the Chiefs and Chargers here, while we play the Raiders over in London (so no one will really have an advantage, although I bet there are more Raiders fans living in London than Seahawks fans) and we catch the Broncos in the first week of the season.  Will Case Keenum be up to snuff right out of the gate, with a new team and a new system?  Then, among the second place teams from last year, we get Dallas here and go on the road to play Carolina, which again I think is the more favorable draw.  I think Dallas will be good again, with full seasons out of Elliott and Dak (and the Dez situation is addition by subtraction), whereas who knows with Carolina?  That late into the season?  Are they going to be totally healthy?

It’s always a huge folly to try to predict the games this early, but it’s 4/20, SO LIGHT ‘EM UP BRO!

@ Denver – Safe money is on this one being a loss.  Going to the Mile High City, playing against a good defense (not at its peak, but still with plenty of talent) that will probably be as healthy as it gets, I think Keenum can do just enough to squeak one by us.  Maybe this one ends with a late Seahawks drive falling short with a pick in the endzone.  Denver 24, Seattle 17.

@ Chicago – I do think the Bears will be much improved, particularly with another year for Vic Fangio to ramp up that defense.  I just don’t know if Trubisky has what it takes.  This one should be a good barometer of the Seahawks’ season, though.  If we’re truly an 8-8 type team, we win this game.  If we’re doomed to bottom out entirely in 2018, then notch this one in the loss column.  I think there’s enough talent in Seattle to steal one, but it won’t be easy.  Seattle 19, Chicago 17.

Dallas – Loss.  No doubt about it.  The Cowboys’ running game will stomp us into hamburger, their quick-strike passing attack will befuddle us, and if our offense can’t keep up in a shootout, this one could be a laugher.  Dallas 33, Seattle 21.

@ Arizona – Sam Bradford?  Please.  The Seahawks go down to their winter home and take another shockingly easy W.  Seattle 27, Arizona 13.

L.A. Rams – Loss.  No doubt about it.  Did you ever think the Seahawks would start out their home schedule 0-2?  Don’t say I didn’t warn you when it happens.  This one PROBABLY won’t be as embarrassing as last year’s loss to the Rams … but it also might be.  Los Angeles 38, Seattle 18.

@ Oakland – I got this as a win.  I don’t know if the Raiders are very good, and I don’t know if Jon Gruden is very good.  I do think this game will be fun, and potentially high scoring.  Seattle 34, Oakland 27.

BYE – So, through six weeks, I have the Seahawks with a 3-3 record, having shockingly gone 3-1 on the road.  Let’s see if that holds up.

@ Detroit – This one has loss written all over it.  Every year, the Seahawks play at least one road game where they come out looking great, but gag it up in the end.  I think the Lions have offense for days and they’ll easily exploit our depleted secondary.  Detroit 38, Seattle 31.

L.A. Chargers – Don’t love this matchup.  I never love a matchup with this Seahawks defense against Philip Rivers, because he fucking carves us up every fucking time.  Los Angeles 35, Seattle 20.

@ L.A. Rams – One more loss to throw on the pile; things are looking BLEAK here folks!  I think the defense will show up a little better this time, but there’s still no doing anything against that Rams squad.  Los Angeles 24, Seattle 6.

Green Bay – Fuck you Packers, we’re winning this one!  With no time to prepare, and no time to fret over this 3-game losing streak, everyone will have written off the Seahawks by this point (if they haven’t already, like I have), and they’ll come out like a ball of lightning.  Seattle 36, Green Bay 28.

@ Carolina – Fuck you Panthers, we’re winning this one too!  One of those old school grudge matches.  Seattle 17, Carolina 13.

San Francisco – Fuck you 49ers, we’re also winning this one!  You don’t think the fans in this one are going to be fucking insane?  With all day to drink and stew over the return of Richard Sherman?  With the Seahawks and 49ers likely to be pretty close to one another in record (and probably fighting over the same Wild Card spot)?  I see a touchdown being scored on Sherm and I see the Seahawks running away with this one.  Seattle 26, San Francisco 10.

Minnesota – Here’s where the winning streak comes to an end.  Too much defense with these Vikings.  I think we hold our own against Cousins and their offense, but it won’t be enough.  Minnesota 13, Seattle 3.

@ San Francisco – We’re dropping this one too.  The 49ers are probably better than the Seahawks right now, and this will put them over the top.  San Francisco 19, Seattle 16.

Kansas City – I like this one to be a win.  First year starter at quarterback, who knows if he’ll hold up let alone be any good?  I think the Seahawks impose their will on the ground and grind out a close one.  Seattle 24, Kansas City 23.

Arizona – Who will be Arizona’s starting quarterback by week 17?  Not Sam Bradford, that’s for damn sure!  The Cards will be falling apart by this point and the Seahawks will cruise.  Seattle 30, Arizona 10.

Any way you slice it, that’s 8-8.  They’ll be a streaky team, they’ll deflate us, then get our hopes up, then break our hearts again.  Wake me when it’s 2019.

Have I Overreacted To All The Coaching Change On The Seahawks?

If you haven’t seen it yet, go ahead and take a gander at what I wrote yesterday.  A lot of doom and gloom and whatnot.  Anyway, I got a GREAT comment from someone named Justin that I thought I’d respond to.  I’m not here to be a Hot Taek factory, and I really hate it when recency bias creeps into my arguments and gets me to overreact to something that’s not really that big of a deal, so I thought I’d take a step back and consider Justin’s argument.

I do stand behind the crux of my argument yesterday, in that it’s never a great sign when a head coach makes wholesale coordinator changes, and you could argue that the Seahawks fired three coordinators, considering Tom Cable’s influence over the offense.  We’re in a period of transition with the Seahawks, there’s no doubt about it.  Some of the stars of those championship teams are aging out, or injuring themselves out, and will need to be replaced.  While it’s not impossible for this team to hit rock bottom in 2018, it’s just as possible that they find the right pieces to fill in and get this team back to the playoffs.  We could be looking at one 9-7 blip on the radar, and nothing would make me happier.

I like a lot of what Justin has to say.  I agree that Russell Wilson is in the Top 5 for me among quarterbacks in this league.  And we all know he has another level to his game; we’ve seen it during the second half of 2015.  He obviously can’t do it alone, though, and is going to need some help from his O-Line and running game.  But, that’s obvious to anyone.  Even Tom Brady looks pretty fucking mediocre in those rare instances where the Patriots have a struggling O-Line; the difference is they seem to know how to push the right buttons and right the ship before too long.

I also agree that we probably have a Top 15/Top 10 defense as it is.  That part of it is never going to get TOO bad, because Pete Carroll is too good of a defensive mind.  My biggest concern is that the injury bug tends to be random, and the Seahawks were pretty well battered in 2016, then followed that up by arguably being MORE battered in 2017.  That, to me, shows signs of age.  And, considering the core on this defense is so deep and has been together for so long, that’s A LOT of holes that need filling, not to mention a lot of depth that needs replenishing around that core.

It’s too early to know what that’s going to look like.  We don’t know, for instance, if Avril or Kam will make miraculous recoveries and try to play again.  Forgetting the cap situation for a moment, assuming we get those guys back, they’re still one awkward hit away from being done for good.  Then, there’s Michael Bennett, who ALWAYS seems to be slowed by one nagging thing or another.  A foot, a quad, a pec, an ankle.  I still say he’s someone who needs to be on the field way less than he is to remain effective.  There’s more snaps you have to replace.  Earl Thomas made a nice recovery in 2017, as I assume Richard Sherman will in 2018, but again:  guys getting older.  Guys more susceptible to these debilitating injuries.  And, I haven’t mentioned guys like Bobby Wagner or K.J. Wright, because they’re almost always pretty healthy.  But, before he went down, Sherm had never missed a game, and I don’t know if Earl missed much time either.  It just takes one hit, or one bad step and then a bunch of others that eventually wear you down until whatever’s ailing you just SNAPS.

So, let’s take a step back and look on the bright side:  who do we have on defense that we like?  That we can count on in major roles going forward?

Frank Clark, obviously, heads that list for me, and feels like a guy this team should prioritize with a big extension.  Dion Jordan is another guy I’ll be happy to see return, and in a meatier role than he had in 2017.  Should he prove to be effective, he’s a guy I wouldn’t mind seeing around semi-long term.  Naz Jones really flashed as a rookie.  He looks like a guy who could play every down and be an effective interior rusher (I just hope he’s not another of these injury-prone guys, what with him missing the last few weeks of the regular season).  Jarran Reed is another impressive interior lineman who feels more like a Brandon Mebane type (which is NOT a bad thing) and is someone I hope to have around for a long time.  So, that’s four guys, not counting Bennett (who I still think will probably be back in 2018).  I don’t expect Sheldon Richardson back, and who the fuck knows about Malik McDowell, but either way, the D-Line could use some work.  And some better injury luck.

Love me some Wagz and Wright; they’re both squarely in their primes.  But, would it kill this team to draft a couple of talented, athletic backups who might one day take their places?  Or, competently fill in for when those guys get nicked up?  I mean, we’re always one Wagner injury away from the biggest fucking drop-off on the entire team outside of quarterback!

In the secondary, I – along with most everyone – liked what I saw from Shaq Griffin.  He still has room to improve, and I hope he makes that leap.  With Earl and Sherm back in the fold in 2018, and Coleman being a solid slot guy, there’s even more to like.  But, how do you replace someone like Kam?  And, who’s gonna be your third outside corner?  Are ANY of the other rookies we drafted in the secondary in 2017 going to pan out besides Griffin?  I think it’s a BAD sign that guys like Delano Hill and Tedric Thompson hardly ever played last year.  I hope they look good behind the scenes, because I have a feeling we’re going to need at least one of them to pan out in the near future.

So yeah, there’s talent defensively.  There’s plenty of talent to be a Top 15 defense as it stands right now.  And, of course, the team will make moves this offseason to bolster that side of the ball.  A Pete Carroll team would NEVER neglect the defense.  But, is this team good enough to overcome just a Top 15 or a Top 10 defense?  Or, does it need a Top 2 defense to really do something?

And, I guess that’s my whole point in all of this.  With all its faults, the 2017 Seahawks were still SO CLOSE to making the playoffs.  And it would’ve been fun, and we would’ve had a rabid ramp-up to that game against the Rams (or whoever would’ve been the 3-seed in this alternate universe).  And who knows?  Maybe we shock the world just like we’ve done so many times in the Wild Card round of the playoffs!

But, I’m not interested in just making the playoffs.  I don’t think there’s a way in Hell that the Seahawks of 2017 – with all the injuries and everything else they had to deal with by season’s end – were in a position to make a serious championship run.  Odds are, if it’s Rams in the Wild Card round, then Eagles in the Divisional round, then Vikings in the Championship game … I mean, look at those defenses!  Those are far and away the three best defenses in the NFC this year (with the Saints probably coming in 4th).  You’re telling me this team, with this O-Line, and this lack of a running game, could’ve made it through all three?  I think the chance of that is 0.00%.

Maybe I’m being greedy.  As a long-suffering Seahawks fan through the years, maybe I SHOULD just be happy with a playoff appearance.  But, after 2013, all of that changed.  With Russell Wilson in the fold, I want to see MULTIPLE championships!  At least one more, ideally two more.  Anything beyond that would be beyond my wildest dreams, but you get the idea.  Great, amazing, franchise-altering quarterbacks don’t come around everyday unless you’re the Green Bay Packers, apparently.  To squander someone like Russell would be a travesty.  Beyond that, I can’t bear to imagine a world where his final play in a Super Bowl is that fucking interception at the goalline.  He NEEDS to be redeemed!

And no, this team probably WON’T collapse in the near future, not as long as Wilson is healthy.  He’s in his prime, and we’ve seen PLENTY of mediocre teams with elite quarterbacks who carry them to consistent 7-9/8-8/9-7 seasons.  Aside from 2015/2016, that’s pretty much the M.O. of the San Diego Chargers under Philip Rivers!  Not to mention a lot of those post-Super Bowl Saints teams.  And a lot of those Lions teams under Matthew Stafford.  On and on and on.  But, to be honest, those types of teams are my worst nightmare.  Not to say I envy the Browns or something, but I would RATHER bottom out for a year or two, bring in a bunch of highly-drafted college players, and turn things around.  The Seahawks will probably never get to be that bad, though, so I think it’s a very real concern that we have a bunch of 8-8 type seasons in the years ahead.

How do we avoid that?  Well, ideally, we need to figure out what the Saints did in their draft room last year, because God Damn!  Justin points out that we should have faith in the combo of Pete and John.  I have the utmost respect for those guys, and I agree they’re the best head coach and GM in franchise history (and maybe in the history of all of Seattle sports).  But, I also think it’s valid to wonder if they’re not coasting on the achievements of their drafts and free agent acquisitions from 2010-2012.  I mean, that’s one of the best turnaround jobs in all of professional sports, what they were able to do in that 3-year span.  And, for the most part, I like that they take chances and they swing for the fences on guys with rare and unique talents.

But, the mounting mistakes from 2013 onward is pretty glaring.  Bringing in Harvin, which led to losing out on Tate.  That whole fucking 2013 draft which has only netted you a backup tight end in Luke Willson (and no, they don’t get credit for Spencer Ware, because he was let go and has done all of his damage with the Chiefs).  Then, there’s the Jimmy Graham deal, and the whole fucking 2014 draft.  Paul Richardson has given us exactly 1 fully healthy season before turning into an expensive free agent.  Justin Britt gave us a couple of mediocre seasons as right tackle and left guard before finding his place at center.  Cassius Marsh and some of the guys below him were non-factors on defense and mostly just good special teamers.  Then again with the 2015 draft.  Clark and Lockett were hits, but Glowinski was a bust, and everyone else is gone.  Now, take a look at the 2016 draft:  the best player is arguably Alex fucking Collins, yet ANOTHER late-round running back this team threw away!  Ifedi has been miserable, Reed has been a run-stuffing defensive tackle, Vannett looks like nothing more than a 3rd or 2nd tight end at best, Prosise is a living, breathing ankle sprain, and the rest of those guys are backups, training camp fodder, or out of the game entirely.  That brings us to the 2017 draft, where it looks like maybe they got their mojo back with guys like Griffin, Jones, Carson, and hopefully Pocic, but also features your top selection in McDowell who might never play a single down in the league.  Then, when you compound it with some of the other deals, giving Joeckel so much money, giving Lacy ANY money, consistently trading away high draft picks for veterans.  My confidence with this line of decision-making hasn’t totally plummeted, but I’ll say this:  2018 is going to go a LONG way toward either restoring my faith, or leading me to construct a noose and hang myself.

I mean, shit, what happened to their prowess in picking guys on the third day of the draft???

In short, because this one ballooned WAY out of control, yesterday’s post is probably a bit of an overreaction, with an asterisk of We’ll See.  This thing has been trending downward for three years, so we just have to hope that the new blood is able to come in and turn things around.  If they can’t, or if injuries continue to kill us, or if guys don’t develop into stars for whatever reason, or if the front office keeps kicking the can down the road with some of these contracts and draft pick trades, then I’ve been on record for a while now saying this could be another Seattle Mariners situation:  a lot of high-priced veterans getting this team to at or around .500, but ultimately treading water for a bunch of years in a row.