Obviously, I have to shout out Field Gulls for inspiring this post. I mean, basically I’m just stealing their idea and answering it in my own forum. But, I linked to them, so what more do you want from me?! A cut of the profits! Good luck! This site is hemorrhaging money hand over fist!
It’s hard for me to feel satisfied with picking a player who I had zero expectations about, who went on to greatness. Like, I’m not – and have never been – a draftnik. So, I didn’t see Richard Sherman coming, for instance. Or Doug Baldwin. Or Kam Chancellor. I’m pretty sure I had equally as low expectations for a lot of those guys drafted in the later rounds, so the fact that I was so “wrong” about them doesn’t really say a whole lot. I mean, who saw Tom Brady, 6th Round quarterback turning into the Greatest Of All Time? That specific element, I’m throwing away.
The flipside, however, probably has my answer: someone drafted high, whose career totally took a shit.
Don’t get me wrong, there are a lot of highly-drafted busts in Seahawks history. But, by and large, these were players we could’ve seen coming. Lawrence Jackson, Lamar King, L.J. Collier, Germain Ifedi, whathaveyou. Even Koren Robinson had his off-field issues that dogged him into his NFL playing days.
I would say the answer for me is Aaron Curry. Unfortunately, that was in my pre-blogging days, so I don’t have a record of my thoughts at the time, but I do remember very distinctly thinking he was a sure thing linebacker for this team. What I didn’t realize was his lack of pass rushing ability. Why a team would draft an off-ball linebacker – and not even a middle linebacker at that – with the 4th overall pick, is beyond me. But, that’s how great of a prospect he was at the time. He was the consensus “safest pick of the draft”. Plug & play. No worries here!
And then we just got nothing in return. Two and a half years of dud-ery, then somehow we traded him to the Raiders for a couple low-end draft picks.
If I had to give an honorable mention, I’d say I was pretty high on the Percy Harvin trade. That just felt like another one where there was no way to screw it up. Harvin was a superstar talent. We were in a position where the team was already built up considerably, so we had the excess salary cap room and draft capital to spend. It felt like the rich getting richer; instead, it was the beginning of the end.
What absolutely doesn’t belong is the Jimmy Graham deal. I didn’t like that one nearly as much as the Harvin deal. Mostly because we lost Max Unger, but also because Graham wasn’t a blocker whatsoever, and we’ve never thrown it enough to make him a viable weapon.
I probably should’ve been more wary of the Jamal Adams deal, but he seemed like another no-brainer sort of talent. No way I saw his injury issues coming. And no way I saw us falling as flat as we did in 2021.
And for good measure, I was pretty high on both Sheldon Richardson and Jadeveon Clowney when they were brought in. Seemed pretty low-risk/high-reward. Get a couple of motivated pass rushers on one-year deals, and either we sign them to an extension, or we let them walk and get a big, fat compensatory pick. Except, surprise! They were both already on the downside of their careers, they did nothing much in Seattle, and they never got those big money deals with other teams. In other words, they walked for nothing, and we were no better for having had them.
I should probably have pointed out by now that the ACTUAL answer to this question is unquestionably Geno Smith. If you told me before 2021 that Geno Smith would eventually replace Russell Wilson, and go on to have a better season than him – at ANY point in their respective careers – I would’ve thought you were a fucking psychopath drug addict. Even if you told me – this time last year – that Geno Smith would not only win the starting quarterback job, but would go on to play at a Pro Bowl level, and earn a potential big-money extension in 2023 and beyond (even with the incentives at work), I would’ve thought you were nuts. There’s no world where I would’ve envisioned a successful Geno Smith.
Now, granted, what has he done? Led a team to a 9-8 record and a first round exit in the playoffs. There are LOTS of quarterbacks who could’ve done that. Hell, Matt Schaub and Andy Dalton made entire careers out of that kind of “success”. But, my opinion of Geno Smith was so low prior to last season, that I legitimately believed Drew Lock was destined to be our starter last year. That’s a thing I not only believed, but was convinced about!
I legitimately don’t know who would be #2 on the list of players I had absolutely zero faith in whatsoever, who went on to greatness. Jarred Kelenic is somewhere in the ballpark, but he’s still young enough that his 2023 improvement isn’t a total shock. I mean, with Geno, it’s not just a matter of having no belief in him, but his presence was met with utter contempt! I couldn’t stand the thought of him taking snaps on this team. I only begrudgingly accepted him as Russell Wilson’s backup because Russ never took any plays off.
And therein lies the rub. Usually, I develop contempt for players only after they’ve sucked for my team. I don’t often have contempt for a player that then subsequently joins my team. And, by and large, any player who has stunk, comes to Seattle and continues to stink. This type of turnaround in my opinion doesn’t happen easily with me. Which is why Geno is such a rare case.
If we’re taking Geno off the table as too obvious, I’m sticking with Aaron Curry as my pick. Honorable mention for someone who isn’t a player at all: Pete Carroll.
As soon as the Seahawks introduced Pete Carroll as their head coach and really the head honcho alongside John Schneider (in other words, not under the GM like most coaches, and having final say over personnel), I thought this was a panic move of desperation by an organization that gave up on Mike Holmgren too early, and clearly reserved the franchise for the wrong coach in Jim Mora Jr. There’s no way in a million years that I expected Pete Carroll to be worth a damn in the NFL. Not after the way he flamed out in the 90’s. Not after the bevy of college coaches who have made the jump and failed miserably (perhaps no one more miserably than Nick Saban, who went on to supersonic success after going to Alabama from the Dolphins).
You could argue – if we included coaches – I was most wrong about Pete Carroll as the Seahawks’ head coach. What’s funny is that a lot of fans were right there with me at the time, and a lot of fans continue to doubt his abilities to this day. I don’t know how smart that is.
At this point, the 2023 Seahawks might have the biggest collection of Nobody Believed In Us personnel of any team in the NFL. Nobody believes in this defense. Nobody believes in the coaching staff (ehh, some might believe in Shane Waldron, but certainly no one believes in Hurtt or Carroll). People stopped believing in John Schneider for a while there. Geno Smith obviously overcame a mountain of haters. Lockett and Metcalf were overlooked by a lot of teams in their respective drafts. Even JSN fell to 20, when he might be a Top 10 talent. If the power of nobody believing in you was something that translated into the win/loss column, I’d say the Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders on that alone!
Of course, that’s not really a thing, and I don’t actually think the Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders. But, I’m more than happy to be proven wrong!