How Good Could The Seahawks Be (Quarterback Aside)?

Don’t get it twisted that I’m sitting here talking myself into the Seahawks making some noise in 2022; they’re not going to contend for shit! But, as an exercise to see my vision through – drafting a franchise quarterback in 2023, setting that player up for success now by building up the team around him a year ahead of time – I think it’s fair to wonder. Now that the draft is behind us, and we can start to piece a roster together, how good is this team at every position other than quarterback?

Let’s start at offensive line, since that was a big emphasis for the Seahawks in this draft. O-Line, as we all know, is vitally important to a team’s chances for success. Especially when you’re talking about breaking in a rookie QB. So, have we done enough?

Obviously, that depends on how these draft picks pan out. But, if they’re as good as a lot of people think they can be, this is going to bode very well for our future. As it stands now, going left to right, we’ve got Charles Cross, Damien Lewis, Austin Blythe, Gabe Jackson, and Abe Lucas. Lewis has two years under his belt, and has performed pretty well when healthy. Blythe comes in with extensive experience in winning programs (including as a former Ram, who this offensive coaching staff knows well), and Jackson is still an in-his-prime starting guard in this league. Either he sticks around, or the Seahawks look to improve at that spot in the draft next year; I’m fine with both scenarios. I think the O-Line has the potential to be very good, creating a nice, soft landing spot for a rookie QB in 2023.

Next, let’s look at weapons. Tyler Lockett is here for the long haul. The team has given every indication that D.K. Metcalf will see a second contract. Freddie Swain has proven to be a competent 3rd/4th/5th receiver. Dee Eskridge and our two rookies this year could be nice gadget players if they stay healthy. That’s a solid group.

Noah Fant is a good tight end, with the potential to be great. He’s right there on the fringe of being a top 10 guy. Will Dissly is the consummate blocking tight end, but he has soft hands and can play down the field. Colby Parkinson hasn’t shown much yet, but his frame should play well around the goalline. I would like to see what he can do when given an opportunity. I think the tight end room is also solid.

Then, we’ve got Kenneth Walker as our potential starting running back. He gets 2022 to play behind Rashaad Penny, giving us a 1-2 punch that could be pretty formidable in the short term. If Walker proves he deserves a shot at being the bellcow, I think he’ll run away with the job in 2023 and beyond. Figure the Seahawks will go back to the running back well in the draft next year, likely selecting a lower-round player to be his backup. There’s a lot that’s up in the air about the running back room right now, but it has the potential to be elite if Walker is The Guy.

As far as weapons go, you could do a helluva lot worse! I think with a year’s experience, that’s about as ideal of a landing spot as any rookie quarterback could find himself in 2023.

But, the real question is: how good could the defense be?

This doesn’t work if the defense isn’t ready to grow into a dominant unit over the next two years. That’ll be what I’m most obsessed about heading into the 2022 regular season. I need to see existing players take huge leaps forward, I need to see rookies develop relatively quickly. I need impact! I need this to be a group that harkens back to the 2011/2012 seasons, when they were clearly ascending.

Let’s go back to front, because I have more confidence in what we’ve done with the secondary.

Between Tre Brown and the two rookies, we need two of those three guys to pan out. My hope is that Brown returns from injury and parlays his brief excellence as a rookie into better things going forward. I’d also bank on Coby Bryant having enough of a chip on his shoulder – and enough skills as a corner – to wrench a job away from Sidney Jones. I’m also not against Jones simply being elite and earning a big money extension, because he’s still pretty young. There are obviously a ton of question marks in this group, but the ceiling is through the roof, and I’m willing to bank on this coaching staff getting the most out of these guys (in ways they thoroughly failed at with Tre Flowers & Co.).

Like it or not, Jamal Adams isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Definitely not before the 2022 season is through. So, he has at least this year to try to prove his worth to this defense. There’s certainly reason for optimism that – from a talent perspective – the coaching staff will find a way to maximize his game. But, can he stay healthy? If this is the third straight year where his season is drastically cut short, then I don’t see how you can keep him in 2023 or beyond. Quandre Diggs, on the other hand, should be a quality contributor for a while, and the younger players behind them (Ugo Amadi, Marquise Blair, Ryan Neal) are quality depth pieces we can roll with in a good defense. I think we’re well set up at Safety, even if the value isn’t there (with our two starters making an insanely high percentage of the salary cap).

Inside linebacker is pretty interesting. I think we’re all pretty happy with Jordyn Brooks and his production on the field. I was of the opinion that it was time to move on from Bobby Wagner, so it’s kind of a no-brainer for Brooks to slide into that spot. But, with the defense expected to be more of a 3-4 look, did we do enough? Are we really going with Cody Barton as the other inside linebacker? Sure, he looked … fine, in limited action towards the end of the season. From a value perspective, he was giving us 80% of Bobby Wagner for a fraction of the price. But, does he really wow you going forward? Is he someone this team would look to re-sign after this season?

I guess we’ll see! Seems to me, there’s no reason NOT to have an open competition at the other inside linebacker spot. Which makes it all the more shocking that the Seahawks didn’t make this position a priority in the draft. The good news is, if everything goes to shit here, they can easily draft one next year and plug him into the starting lineup immediately. Inside linebackers are a dime a dozen.

At outside linebacker/pass rusher, I think it’s fair to doubt the Seahawks completely. I’ll believe it when I see it, for lack of a better phrase. Uchenna Nwosu was the big free agent splash, and he signed a 2-year deal. His season high in sacks is 5.0, which he got last year. He’s a 4-year pro from the Chargers who is more like a veteran prospect than an actual veteran producer. Maybe he wasn’t in the right system? Maybe they didn’t utilize him properly? Maybe he just needed more time to develop? I guess his pressure rate might be better than it looks on the stat sheet, but I’m going to need to see him with my eyes before I can make a proper opinion. Is he a diamond in the rough? Or, is he another Rasheem Green?

Darrell Taylor is our prize. He missed out on his rookie season due to a lingering college injury, but as a second year pro he really stood out. 6.5 sacks in his first healthy season is pretty impressive; THAT’S something to build on. That’s the kind of talent you can see making strides during his rookie contract, unlike Nwosu, who never really put it together with his original team.

Then, there’s guys like Alton Robinson and Boye Mafe. Robinson had 4.0 sacks as a rookie, then regressed to the one sack last year. He might just be rotational filler, and it’s fair to question if he even makes the team. Mafe is a rookie, and unless you’re one of the top two or three in the draft, I never have confidence that lower-rated pass rushers will make an immediate impact. If he gets a few sacks, that’s good. If he gets 6+, that’s a little more encouraging. But, I wouldn’t expect anything like double-digits. He just doesn’t have the skills; it’s a whole new ballgame when you make the leap to the NFL. Mostly, I just hope he stays healthy – especially through training camp and the pre-season – so he can learn on the job as much as possible.

Beyond that, we have to talk about the 3-4 interior linemen. Some of them are considered defensive ends, but they’re “ends” in the way Red Bryant was an end. Shelby Harris came over in the Russell Wilson trade and figures to be a leader on this team. He’s already in his 30’s though, so presumably he’ll need to play well in 2022 to stick around going forward. Quinton Jefferson was signed as veteran depth to compete with L.J. Collier; you figure only one of those guys will make it. Then, there are the tackles, Poona Ford, Bryan Mone, and Al Woods. I like the tackles a lot! Harris is probably the best of the bigger ends we have. This looks like another spot that will need to be addressed after this season. But, as far as run stuffing is concerned, I think these guys are on the better side of average.

The defense is, by no means, a finished product. Far from it. But, you don’t really even have to squint to see where the potential lies. Pass rush is a concern and it always will be. But, I’ll say this about that: if everything else looks good, and if we manage to hit on the rookie quarterback next year, then we can attempt to do what we did in 2013 and sign a couple of quality free agent pass rushers, using all the free money we have laying around by not paying a quarterback at the top of the market. Free agency in 2023 and 2024 could be VERY interesting for the Seahawks, in ways it really hasn’t been since that Super Bowl-winning season.

TL;DR: there’s reason for optimism, but obviously a lot of holes to fill, and a lot of question marks currently on the roster to boot.

OMFG: The Seahawks Traded Russell Wilson To The Broncos

I did not expect to take a shower and return to dozens upon dozens of tweets talking about a Russell Wilson trade. If I’m being honest, I foolishly hoped the MLB had worked out an agreement on a new CBA. This is … decidedly different news.

Earlier today, it was reported Aaron Rodgers was set to sign a 4-year, $200 million deal to stay with the Packers. That immediately got the Seahawks beat writers discussing Wilson; would you pay him upwards of $50 million per year to stick around through his late 30’s?

I would not. Even though Rodgers has also been short on Super Bowl appearances, he’s largely carried that team in ways Wilson hasn’t. Rodgers has done more with worse Packers teams, is my ultimate point. He has multiple MVP awards for a reason. When the Seahawks have tried to model their offense around Wilson’s arm – to the detriment of the running game – he hasn’t been enough all by himself to get us over the hump. And, the way things were headed, it was never going to work long term. He was always going to butt up against the notion that he needs a strong running game and defense to take us back to the Super Bowl. Paying him $50 million a year or more wasn’t going to help us in any way, shape, or form. That’s just going to make it that much more difficult to fill out a proper roster.

Don’t give me this about the Rams and other teams kicking the can down the road. That’s easy to say when your highest paid players are the stars at the most important positions. It’s easy to look at the Rams as a model franchise who can pay the QB position a lot of money and still win it all, when they have Aaron Donald (the best football player alive, regardless of position), Jalen Ramsey (one of the top corners in the game, decidedly a premium position), and quality players all along the defensive line around those guys. The Seahawks are paying a middle linebacker and a safety who can’t cover anyone gobs of money that would be better spent along the DL and at CB.

It’s fair to question, at this point, whether or not we have the right front office in place – with Pete Carroll at the epicenter – to lead the next rebuild, or the search for our next franchise quarterback. Time will tell. But, running it back for the sake of running it back was never going to lead to a championship in 2022, or 2023 in all likelihood.

If we’re not going to win a Super Bowl in the next two years, then what are we clinging to Russell Wilson for?

  • The Broncos get: Russell Wilson & a 4th round pick
  • The Seahawks get: Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two 1st rounders, two 2nd rounders, and a 5th rounder

One of the first rounders is the 9th overall pick this year. We also get the Broncos’ original 2nd rounder this year, so that’s something.

It’s easy to look at the players and cringe. Fant is easily the best player the Seahawks are getting in return. He’s a value tight end this year, then would make nearly $7 million next year if we retain him (he’s also young and good enough to warrant an extension, if we’re so inclined, but I would imagine we’d wait until after this season to do so).

Harris is a defensive end who will be 31 this year; he’s just a guy. His season high in sacks is 6.0, which he’s done twice and appears to be his ceiling. The note that he’s a respected veteran holds no water with me. He’s making $7.5 million in base salary this year, and $8.5 million next year (his only guaranteed money is $5 million this year, so we could cut him prior to 2023 for no dead cap hit).

Everyone is going to point to Drew Lock and wail; I can’t blame you. He might be the worst starting quarterback in the league, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. He might even be too bad to be anyone’s backup; I can’t imagine Geno Smith being worse, for instance. I won’t sugarcoat how bad Lock is; I don’t expect his play to improve in Seattle. Even if we go HARD to becoming a run-first team, you still have to throw the ball around 50% of the time. He doesn’t have the accuracy or ability to do much of anything in the NFL.

It’s all about the draft picks. It’s also about finding a quarterback who will buy in. It’s about getting rid of an aging, short pocket passer who can’t hit the intermediate-middle route and whose legs’ best days are long behind him. I dread what Wilson will look like in five years.

The Seahawks aren’t the Rams; they’re like most other teams in the NFL. To succeed in this league at a high level, you need to build up your roster and hit on a rookie QB. Teams with good quarterbacks on rookie deals tend to be the best. This at least allows us the opportunity – with some high picks this year (three in the top 41 or so) – to start building up the roster. If we have a down season, then come back with more high picks next year, the rebuild might not take as long as expected.

You can sweat the Seahawks and their draft classes since 2012, but they sure as shit knew what they were doing those first three years, when they were picking relatively high. It’s hard picking in the mid-to-high 20’s. They were also rumored to be taking serious looks at Mahomes and Allen (even, I believe, showing up at their respective Pro Days) when Wilson was firmly entrenched as our franchise quarterback. I don’t know why you do that if you’re not at least sniffing around at a possible replacement. Plus, they obviously hit on Wilson in the third round, so it’s not like these guys have no clue.

As someone who was sick and tired of the Let Russ Cook argument – a failure in execution, 100% – I’m fine with seeing him go. This is the best time to get the most value out of him; we’ve seen him at his best. We had a tremendous decade-long run with him at the helm, including multiple divisional titles, two Super Bowl appearances, and one title. Maybe the Broncos squeeze some more elite passing years out of him, but I don’t know if he’ll win any more championships the rest of the way. And I think his final years in the league will rival some of the biggest drop-offs we’ve ever seen at the position. He finally got hurt in 2021 and had to miss games; you think that’s going to be the last serious injury he ever has? He’s getting older and slower, and he’s not Tom Brady.

It’s never ideal to trade a franchise quarterback in the hand. There’s a VERY good chance the Seahawks squander this deal, that the players we get in return do nothing, and we whiff on the draft picks. In which case, the coach and GM will be gone.

But, I don’t believe they were ever going to win it all again with Wilson either. Since it became clear Pete & John were going nowhere, this was the only way to shake things up and see if we could rejuvenate this franchise. It’s a long shot, but what else did we have to look forward to?

A 2022 season with Wilson might’ve seen the Seahawks reach the playoffs again, but we’re also in one of the most challenging divisions in the league, so a wild card spot was probably our ceiling. Followed by a loss in the first or second round of the playoffs.

Following that, we would’ve looked forward to yet another protracted and annoying battle in the media for Wilson’s next contract extension (if he was even remotely interested in sticking around, which I don’t believe he was). Either that, or another protracted and annoying media campaign where Wilson tries to force another trade anyway. Who wants to endure that?

I’ll take the clean break. I’ll take leaving on reasonably good terms. I’ll take the positive memories we have, over the sour ending we were likely to see.