Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 9

Man, that was a squeaker!

By all rights, I should’ve lost last week.  In the end, I have my opponent to thank.

In the flurry of mid-week moves made in our league come Wednesday morning of last week, The Lance Petemans picked up Dion Lewis and dropped Chris Carson.  Per his description, Carson fucked him all year long, so of course the week he drops him is the week I claim him and he goes for 105 yards and a touchdown (20.40 points in total).  Had someone with a higher waiver priority made a play for Carson, my backup emergency fill-in RB for Ezekiel Elliott on his BYE was likely going to be Kenjon Barner (my thought process being: Sony Michel was injured, the Pats were likely to kill the Bills, and hopefully Barner would get me a goalline TD for my trouble).  Barner ended up getting all of 0.40, a full 20 points less than Carson.  King Flippy Nips beat The Lance Petemans 171.70 to 160.94, so you go ahead and do the math while I wait here and smoke this victory cigar.

I never in my wildest dreams figured I’d pick up a running back I actually wanted to keep around on my roster; I thought I’d get a guy for the week, be disappointed, and drop him as soon as humanly possible.  But, Carson isn’t only a viable plug n’ play, he might actually be a Must Start.  I don’t want to get ahead of myself, because he’s only had 2 good games out of 7, but this is the guy I was expecting coming into the draft (when I selected him in my other league WAY too early).

I got a lot of good play up and down my lineup.  Derek Carr got me almost 40 on my bench, but Wentz & Dalton both had 27+.  Thielen and Peterson also got me over 20, and the rest of my skill guys got me 10+.  Matt Prater had a crap game, and Chicago’s defense certainly missed Khalil Mack, but all in all it was a full team effort.

Having Tyreek Hill go down with a groin injury is far from ideal, but if there’s a position I can afford to have some injuries in, it’s wide receiver.  Woods is a Must Start for me at this point, and I’ve got plenty of depth to fill out my FLEX spot.  I just hope Hill’s injury doesn’t linger too long, and he isn’t beset with constant setbacks.

The victory brought me back to .500 at 4-4.  I’m in 4th place, comfortably in 3rd place in total points scored, and 6th in points against.

Week 9 is the week I’ve been dreading (and had blocked out of my mind to this point) all year.  On top of Leonard Fournette being on BYE (here’s hoping he’s back and starting in Week 10), I have not one but TWO quarterbacks on BYE.  Yes, this is a 2-QB league, and yes, I only have 3 QBs on my roster.  What’s more, Wentz was a keeper and the other two were draft picks, meaning I did this to myself.  Did I realize it when I picked Dalton?  Probably not.  Did I do anything about it back when I had a chance to grab someone off waivers?  Well, I owned FitzMagic for a hot minute, but dropped him back when he was benched for Jameis.

You can see where I’m going with this.  By picking up Chris Carson, my waiver priority fell; I was 9th out of 10 teams heading into this week.  Now, luckily I got the win last week, which I absolutely prefer to getting a chance to claim FitzMagic this week, so in that sense I don’t totally regret missing out on him.

Brock Osweiler was the only free agent quarterback available who looks like he’ll get a start this week.  That’s suboptimal, but what are you gonna do?  In the flurry of waiver moves on Wednesday morning, Sam Darnold was thrown to the wolves, so I put in a claim for him.  It won’t go through until Friday, so stay tuned!

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Derek Carr @ SF
  • QB2 – Brock Osweiler vs. NYJ
  • WR1 – Adam Thielen vs. DET
  • WR2 – Robert Woods @ NO
  • RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott vs. TEN
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson vs. ATL
  • TE – Greg Olsen vs. TB
  • FLEX – Kenny Golladay @ MIN
  • K – Matt Prater @ MIN
  • DEF – Chicago @ BUF

My bench is:  Wentz (BYE), Dalton (BYE), Fournette (BYE), Carson, Hill, Devonta Freeman (IR).

As usual, the big decision I had was Olsen vs. Reed.  This week, I like the Panthers TE against the poor Bucs defense because they give up a ton of points to tight ends (whereas the Falcons’ defense is middle-of-the-road against tight ends).  Since Fournette is no longer an option for the IR spot, I had to create two openings before I could make any moves.  I dropped Jordan Reed so I could slide Fournette back to my bench.  Both Reed and Olsen are injury-prone (in spite of the fact that Reed hasn’t missed a game this year), but I like Olsen’s upside in a more prolific offense.  The other move was dropping Calvin Ridley for Osweiler.  Considering I’ve still got Golladay on my bench – and his role figures to increase now that the Lions traded Golden Tate – I feel I have plenty of top-shelf wide receiver depth on my roster.

The other big decision this week was Golladay over Carson for my FLEX.  Carson is really touchdown-dependent, but the Seahawks have been super-committed to him (as well they should be, because he’s far-and-away the best running back on this team and it’s not even close).  Golladay conversely, got lost in the shuffle the last two weeks with all the other Lions’ weapons stepping up.  Minnesota’s defense is pretty good against wide receivers, so for a while there I had Carson in my lineup.  But, with the trade of Golden Tate, Golladay HAS to see an increase in production.  Considering I feel the Lions will have to throw a lot to stay in this game, I think Golladay is both the safer play and the higher-ceiling play (as you’ll see tomorrow, I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Seahawks beating the Chargers).

This week, I’m going up against Beasts.  Last week, I talked about how The Lance Petemans have won the league championship every other year for the last too-many-years; well, the guy who’s won the league championship ALMOST every other year that The Lance Petemans failed to wrap it up was Beasts.  In back-to-back weeks I’m playing arguably the two best fantasy owners in our league’s history.  Great.

Here’s Beasts’ lineup:

  • QB1 – Russell Wilson vs. LAC
  • QB2 – Matt Ryan @ WAS
  • WR1 – Brandin Cooks @ NO
  • WR2 – Jarvis Landry vs. KC
  • RB1 – Christian McCaffrey vs. TB
  • RB2 – Phillip Lindsay vs. HOU
  • TE – Kyle Rudolph vs. DET
  • FLEX – Julian Edelman vs. GB
  • K – Graham Gano vs. TB
  • DEF – Minnesota vs. DET

His bench is:  Bortles (BYE), Tevin Coleman, Cooper Kupp, Doug Martin, Amari Cooper.

His quarterbacks should be rock solid in their games.  It’s sort of appalling how often the Rams try to force it into Cooks (when Woods is so much more wide open all the time!), and Landry is just a target machine against a terrible pass defense.  McCaffrey is a fantasy god going up against an even worse defense, and Phillip Lindsay pretty much owns that backfield now.  There really isn’t a weak player in the bunch; I guess I don’t love Minnesota’s defense against an offense like Detroit’s.  Nevertheless, my team is going to need to bring its A-game.

For what it’s worth, I like my non-QBs this week.  Chicago has a legitimate chance to be the best defense of the week (so watch them lay an egg somehow).  My kicker figures to have a nice bounce-back performance in a should-be high-scoring game.  All of my receivers look like they’ll be in games where their teams are throwing a lot.  And, here’s hoping Zeke comes back with a vengeance after a BYE week’s rest.  My hunch is that I lose this one, but I’ve got some guys that can keep me close.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: Week 8

Last week, I just got hosed.  There’s no way around it.  Oh sure, I hosed myself in many respects – I could’ve made a harder push at picking up Indy’s defense, or drafted a better group of quarterbacks – but I pretty much put out the best team I could’ve and I got beat.

Sloane N Steady ended up starting Nick Chubb over Isaiah Crowell, which in the end made all the difference (8 points, when he won 143.95 – 141.44), but that shouldn’t have even mattered.  He was saddled with a big, fat 0 out of Melvin Gordon – whose 6:30am London start time was too early for my opponent to realize he was out with injury – and I honestly thought I had the week in the bag.  I was over a 75% favorite heading INTO the Sunday afternoon games!  Hell, I just needed 34 combined points out of Andy Dalton and Tyreek Hill in the Sunday Night Game (he had no one else going at this point).  While Hill did his job, Dalton only got me 9.4, and that was that.  Andy Fucking Dalton, worthless pile of shit, playing in a Primetime game, sucked too many dicks and I lost yet another week of fantasy football I should’ve won.

I’m now 3-4, in 5th place in the league, and I’m still 3rd overall in points scored (while down to 6th in points against).  It’s just unbelievable.

At this point, I don’t know what else I have to do.  Making a bunch of panic moves feels like a mistake.  Honestly, it’s not any one thing that’s setting me back.  Sure, I’m pretty shaky at quarterback, but I’m never going to find anyone better without giving up a king’s ransom of talent at other positions, and quite frankly I just don’t have enough depth on my bench to make up the difference.  Every week, it’s something else.  As much as I despise that loathesome ginger-headed quarterback, getting only 3 points out of the Bears’ defense is the biggest culprit.  Had I known they were going to be THAT bad against the Pats – and that my game was destined to be this close against me – I sure as shit would’ve risked losing Calvin Ridley to pick up a better streaming defense last week.

My life goes from bad to worse this week, as I’m without Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette – two of my three keepers from last season.  Fournette is obviously a worthless pile of shit (whose team just traded for Carlos Hyde, to make my life even more miserable, as his value with the Jags continues to plummet); Elliott, on the other hand, is on a BYE, which leaves me with 1 healthy running back in the 500 year old Adrian Peterson.

The best available RB was Latavius Murray, who might get the nod over Dalvin Cook, but is also set to face the Saints, who are one of the best run defenses in football (so, I didn’t put in a claim for him and someone else snapped him up).  The other usual suspects are/were out there – Javorius Allen, Wendell Smallwood, Jalen Richard (who also got claimed on waivers), Frank Gore – but none of them are all that enticing.

Someone did, however, drop Chris Carson, so I used my 5-waiver priority to pick him up.  I won’t know if I get him until tomorrow, so consider that a teaser for next week’s recap!

Here’s this week’s lineup:

  • QB1 – Carson Wentz @ JAX
  • QB2 – Andy Dalton vs. TB
  • WR1 – Tyreek Hill vs. DEN
  • WR2 – Adam Thielen vs. NO
  • RB1 – TBD
  • RB2 – Adrian Peterson @ NYG
  • TE – Jordan Reed @ NYG
  • FLEX – Robert Woods vs. GB
  • K – Matt Prater vs. SEA
  • DEF – Chicago vs. NYJ

My bench is:  Carr, Elliott (BYE), Ridley (BYE), Fournette (IR), Golladay, Olsen, Devonta Freeman (to be waived for a healthy replacement RB).

I’m feeling super dumb about holding two tight ends on my roster, when both of them are as mediocre as can be.  When I think about all the other guys I could’ve had – ON WAIVERS, not to mention in the draft – it drives me crazy.  The last thing I wanted to do this year was waste two roster spots on the tight end position, yet here I am.  I started Reed over Olsen this week because the Ravens’ defense is pretty stout, so it seems unlikely the Panthers are going to move the ball well.  I don’t have much hope for Reed either, but he feels like a slightly better proposition.

This week, my opponent is The Lance Petemans.  He’s won our league every other year for the last I don’t even know how many years, which makes him both one of the better fantasy football owners in our league, and also probably the luckiest.

He’s always been smart about his keepers, and this year was no different.  He’s had Brady and Gurley the last two seasons, with Jimmy Garoppolo as his third, who was looking like yet another monster fantasy producer until he hit the IR.  The rest of his team is, as you’d expect, pretty solid up and down the lineup … except for that #2 QB spot.  To wit:

  • QB1 – Tom Brady @ BUF
  • QB2 – C.J. Beathard @ AZ
  • WR1 – A.J. Green vs. TB
  • WR2 – Alshon Jeffery @ JAX
  • RB1 – Todd Gurley vs. GB
  • RB2 – Tarik Cohen vs. NYJ
  • TE – Eric Ebron @ OAK
  • FLEX – John Brown @ CAR
  • K – Dan Bailey vs. NO
  • DEF – New England @ BUF

His bench is:  Sony Michel, Ryan Tannehill, Will Fuller V, Dion Lewis, L.A. Chargers, Jimmy G (IR).

So, for starters, what did I do to deserve back-to-back opponents having their respective quarterbacks go up against Buffalo & Arizona?  You can pencil those guys in for 60 points RIGHT NOW!  And that might be conservative!  Really, he’s got matchup darlings up and down his lineup.  Green against Tampa’s grotesque defense; Jeffery against the suddenly-mediocre Jaguars defense (while also poaching points from Wentz with every pass he catches); Gurley against the Packers’ nothing defense; Ebron against the Raiders’ less-than-nothing defense.  And the shit-cherry on top of the shit-sundae:  the Patriots defense against the Bills, who hand out pick-sixes like they’re full candy bars on Halloween.

If The Lance Petemans don’t score over 220 points, I’ll be shocked.  I’ve got a pretty good team, but even with an active and healthy Zeke and Fournette, I don’t think I’d have a shot in Hell.  You could probably add up my entire roster – including all bench guys – and I don’t think I’d come close to beating his starting lineup.

Nobody Wants To Hear About My Fantasy Team: The All-Important Draft

See the first post in this series for what I’m talking about here.

Well, we did it.  I drafted my team and, if I do say so myself, I think I did a pretty good job!  Of course, I always say so myself, because why wouldn’t I?  I brought in these players, I must like them to some extent!  Because they’ve yet to disappoint me.

It’s all downhill from here.

As I talked about last time, my 3 keepers are Wentz, Fournette, and Elliott.  Since I had my RBs set, I didn’t have to focus on them too much in the early going.  So, after the first three rounds took care of the keepers, I went to work bolstering my WR unit.

I picked 8th, in every round.  I won’t list out every single pick, but I’ll at least show you the first round, to give you an idea of the players we had available:

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Saquon Barkley
  3. Melvin Gordon
  4. Cam Newton
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. Davante Adams
  7. Matthew Stafford

So, those were the guys taken right before me.  Both of the top QBs that were left out there, the top 3 RBs, and my two favorite WRs.  I was bound and determined to get a receiver; the available ones were:  A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Gronk (technically a TE, but still), T.Y. Hilton, and Tyreek Hill.  I went with Hill.  I like Mahomes a lot, I like that offense, I think Hill is a stud in the prime of his career who will be the focal point of that passing game (as opposed to the tight end-centric offense run under Alex Smith), and I just believe he has the highest upside to really blow out some games.

I should point out that all of those other receivers I listed off were taken by the time I drafted again.  I still wanted to go WR – to knock that position out of the way – even though I desperately needed a second QB (and, one might argue, a FIRST QB, since who knows when Wentz will be ready).  Adam Thielen was sitting there and he felt like an obvious pick, so I took him (the other WRs were Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, and Doug Baldwin; I think I made clearly the best choice).

By my next pick, all of those receivers were gone, as well as the next two best tight ends (Kelce and Ertz), so I went into the QB well.  No more QBs were taken after Cam & Stafford, so I had my pick of the shit-filled kitty litter.  I went with Derek Carr, upside over recent success.  I think he’ll be a transformed player under Jon Gruden and even if the Raiders are a terrible team, I think they’ll be behind in a lot of games and throwing the ball a ton.  Plus, they don’t really have a defined #1 RB (a respectable committee led by Beastmode), so I think this could be great for me.  The other QBs available were Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Blake “The Bort” Bortles, Dak Prescott, and Case Keenum.  Ben is obviously better, but I can’t trust him to play a full season.  I might regret not taking Alex Smith though.

When it came back to me, in Round 7, Demaryius Thomas was still sitting there at the top of the Yahoo rankings.  I needed a flex guy, and honestly the value I was getting for Denver’s #1 receiver was too good to pass up.  I might’ve gotten the steal of the draft, or he might be the bust that everyone is expecting.  We’ll see, I’ll take my chances.  By taking him, though, I missed out on Chris Carson, his teammate Emmanuel Sanders, Jacksonville’s defense, the Rams’ defense, Allen Robinson, and Corey Davis, among others.

In Round 8, I took the best tight end available (who was also among the best overall players available), Greg Olsen.  My plan going into the draft was to wait until one of the last three rounds to take a tight end (as well as a defense and a kicker), but Olsen is elite, and the drop-off in tight ends was significant (plus, like I said, he was one of the top players remaining).  I missed out on Marquise Goodwin, Mark Ingram, and Minnesota’s defense, among others.

Next, I started filling my bench, with Robert Woods leading the way.  At this point, I still haven’t grabbed a third RB, and that might be my undoing if I have injuries to my top two guys.  A run on RBs went right after I took Woods, with guys like Lynch, Peyton Barber, Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson, Dion Lewis, and Carlos Hyde all going off the board.

In Round 10, I went back to QB, because it’s always smart to have a competent third (in case of injuries, BYEs, or if Derek Carr really does suck), so I bought low on Andy Dalton.  In Round 10 of a 2-QB league, I think I got really good value on this one too.  Plus, I think everyone is severely underrating him this year, and I like him to bounce back in a big way.  I passed on Jameis Winson, because I can’t have his 3-game suspension hanging over my head if I don’t know Wentz’s status those weeks and I didn’t want to have to roster 4 QBs.  I also passed on guys like Mitch Trubisky, Mayfield & Darnold, Ryan Tannehill, and Eli Manning, which I’m okay with.

Next up, Adrian Peterson was still there, so I grabbed him.  I don’t know if that’s going to work out for me, but he’s a #1 RB in the 11th round, so beggars can’t be choosers.  The other RBs available were all backups or in time-shares (Latavius Murray, Sony Michel, James Conner, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, and Marlon Mack, among others).  If worse comes to worse and I need an RB off waivers, I’m sure I can find someone, so I’m not too worried about it.  If best comes to best, then in AP I have a 1,000-yard rusher on a good offense.  (I will say that I’m disappointed that Will Fuller V was taken 2 picks after this; I think he’s a stud).

In Round 12, Jordan Reed was still there, so I grabbed him.  Yep, the guy who was going to wait and take whatever TE was left over in the final rounds … ended up drafting TWO of them.  But, when healthy, Reed is a Top 3 TE.  And now he has Alex Smith throwing to him, the ultimate in TE-friendly QBs.  Plus, Greg Olsen is getting up there, so it’s nice to have some TE insurance.

In the lucky 13th round, I grabbed Kenny Stills.  All the podcasts I was listening to in the week leading up to the draft cited this guy as a potential break-out player.  Tannehill apparently loves him, he’s a target monster, and with Landry out of the picture, he should be the team’s #1.  I am CRUSHING this draft with all the value I’m getting!

In the final two rounds, I finally had to go grab a defense and a kicker.  I drafted Baltimore’s defense in the 14th, and ‘Frisco’s Robbie Gould in the 15th.  Whatever.

Yahoo’s stupid grading system put me in the middle of the pack with a B grade.  It hated my Derek Carr pick (about 6 rounds too early according to ADP?), but it loves my Thielen pick, as well as my RB keepers.  My team is the 2nd oldest in the league, which might be troubling; then again, my tendency is to draft a lot of young guys and where has it gotten me?  Nowhere near the championship trophy, that’s for damn sure.

So, we’ll see how it goes.  My schedule is one of the toughest in the league, so that’s fucking great.  Then again, why should I trust Yahoo’s grading?