What has stood out to me more than anything through two preseason Seahawks games is the fact that the Seahawks scored first on both of their opening possessions (and both scores were touchdowns).
It’s so funny to me that the entirety of the Pete Carroll Era – especially with Russell Wilson at the helm – was the old adage of, “Can you win the game in the first quarter … and so on and so forth?” Those teams prided themselves on coming back and winning games late. It was an exciting brand of football, to be sure (if you avoided the weekly heart attacks this team tried to give you), and it’s hard to argue with results. I know we all would’ve preferred more, but a Super Bowl victory and two Super Bowl appearances speak for themselves.
When, in reality, it very much DOES matter how you do in the first quarter! Indeed, with every quarter containing the same number of minutes, it’s like EVERY quarter matters the same!
The 2025 Seahawks led the NFL in first quarter scoring, averaging 6.8 points (the Rams were second with 6.5 points; the Patriots were fourth with 6.1 points). Seems relevant, doesn’t it?
Did you also know that teams who lead after the first quarter go on to win nearly 70% of the time? Sure seems like all those Pete Carroll teams were doing things the hard way!
I can kind of see it the other way, if I talk through it a little bit. This presupposes you have an elite defense; it makes sense to slow the game down, reduce possessions, and then throw up the throttle late only if you need a score. But, it’s so much better to get that early lead, and then lean on your defense to force the other team into being one-dimensional. That’ll generate more stops, more turnovers, and run up the score for your team.
The 2025 Seahawks scored on their first possession four times (five if you count the playoffs); across the league, it’s anywhere from 35-40% of the time when teams score on their first possession, so that’s kind of in line. I will say the 49ers (since we got our OC from them) only scored on their first possession three times in 2025; something to think about.
The 2025 Seahawks led after the first quarter in only 12 of their 20 games (including playoffs), which is kind of surprising to me. I would’ve thought it might be higher, with the way people talk about how often we scored early. The only game where we led after the first quarter and lost was against the Bucs. It’s not entirely mandatory that we jump out early, but it certainly helps.
If we get even more granular – again, considering the Seahawks have scored on both of their preseason opening drives – I wanted to know the percentage of teams who win the game after scoring on their opening possession. Turns out, it’s around 60-65% of the time. And, if you defer, stop them, and THEN score on your opening possession, that percentage bumps up to around 70% (even higher if that score is a touchdown).
This whole thought exercise is a byproduct of my anxiety over Brian Fleury being a first-time play-caller. I’m trying my best to keep my confidence in how this whole operation is going to look with the loss of Kubiak, and taking solace in our ability to show up on these preseason opening drives is what I’ve got right now.
I say this knowing full well I’ve jinxed the Seahawks for tonight’s game against the Chiefs, but what are you gonna do?
Can the Seahawks continue this trend into the regular season? Will this be something that Fleury can hang his hat on?
The 49ers notoriously script their first however many plays. I don’t necessarily know how effective that is, since again, they only scored on their opening possession three times last year. But, it would stand to reason this is a strategy Fleury will take with him to Seattle.
I would love for the early scoring trend to continue for this team. I feel like it just brings this sense of relaxation over the proceedings, especially if you can crack the endzone early. It also buys you some wiggle room, in the event that the other team makes adjustments and you’re not necessarily as effective going forward. Get an early TD and a few field goals through three quarters, that’s 16 points and you’ve got a-whole-nother 15 minutes of action left to play! If this defense can’t keep you in the game with 16 points through three quarters, then I’ll eat my hat!
So, that’s what I’m going to be looking for tonight, and that’s what I’ll be looking for in the first month of the regular season. Can the Seahawks keep it up with first quarter scoring? If yes, that’s a great sign for things to come.
If not … then it’s one more thing we have to worry about.