It’s a little bit like the criminal justice system. In theory, you do something bad and break the law, you get caught, you go to prison, and you rehabilitate yourself in that time, so when you leave prison you’re a better person, and a valued member of society. But, we live in reality, and it’s extremely easy to be cynical about that theory. Does the prison system have a goal to rehabilitate prisoners? Or, is it just a place to pen them in, amongst other hardened individuals, monitored by corrupt and incompetent individuals, leading to an endless cycle of breaking the law, getting caught, getting released, and breaking the law again? It’s not like prisoners are put in the best positions to succeed, either while in prison, or after they’re released. Also, some people are just fundamentally broken for whatever reasons, and have no interest in rehabilitation.

So, do I want to sit here and believe in the magical fairyland that is quarterback rehabilitation? That a once-terrible player can turn his life around and be a valued member of the NFL? I mean, as a Seahawks fan, that’s more or less been my life for the last four years with Geno Smith. We all know there are stories of people who hit rock bottom, then make it out better and more successful than ever, but those are obviously not the norm!

What are the odds that the Seahawks have found two back-to-back reclamation projects?!

To believe in the narrative of Sam Darnold, you have to go back to his season in San Francisco in 2023. It was there – as the legend goes – when Sam Darnold went to Quarterback School, under Kyle Shanahan. He started one game at the end of the season (when they had the division wrapped up), but otherwise was a backup the entire year, occasionally getting onto the field for quarterback sneaks. This season, nevertheless, changed his entire career.

He signed a 1-year, $10 million deal to be a backup in Minnesota in 2024. The Vikings had just drafted J.J. McCarthy, who would go on to have a season-ending injury in the pre-season. And, the rest is history. Darnold led the Vikings to a remarkable 14-3 record, with over 4,000 yards passing and 35 touchdowns. But, this was capped by back-to-back losses (in week 18 to drop the division to the Lions, and in the first round of the playoffs to the Rams) that severely hampered his value.

That being said, he was signed by Seattle to be the starter. There’s no doubt about that. While we can get out from under this contract after one season, it’s still a lot of guaranteed money for at least this first year, and you have to believe he’s going to be given every opportunity to play. This is NOT a Matt Flynn situation, not by a long shot. Jalen Milroe would have to be the second coming of Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes to unseat Darnold before the regular season starts, and I just don’t see that happening. Whereas, I think the Seahawks were looking for every excuse to hand Russell Wilson the job, once they realized what they had in him.

Don’t get me wrong, Milroe is definitely a wild card. He’s the best kind of lottery ticket, because you could actually see him panning out. He already does something at an elite level – running with the ball – so if he can just be a Jalen Hurts kind of passer, the sky is the limit for him and this team.

But, I would argue Darnold is just as big of a wild card. What if he’s good? What if he’s just as good as Geno Smith, but younger? What if you put Geno Smith on a team with a truly great defense and an actually-competent offensive line, with a running game that could take enough pessure off of him to limit some of those back-breaking turnovers?

I’ll say this, Darnold was good last year. Every time the Vikings won and he played well, I was both impressed and flabbergasted. The more they won, and the more he played well, the clearer it became that he was a viable starter in this league. Not just a game manager, not just someone getting by on the strength of a defense. But, someone throwing deep to wide receivers, someone running a legit offense. I wouldn’t say I was blown away by what the Vikings had on defense, or in their rushing attack. They were okay, but I would argue what the Seahawks have going this year will be MUCH better than what the Vikings had last year.

And, Darnold did all of that while also succumbing to 48 sacks, two fewer than Geno. What I would love to know is where those sacks came from. Was their O-line also shit? Did Darnold hold the ball too long, or make too many poor decisions?

What’s a little concerning is how many interceptions Darnold had. 12, versus Geno’s 15. If I had one gripe about Geno, it was: too many late-game and red zone interceptions. I can’t totally blame the respective schemes, because Geno threw it 578 times, while Darnold threw it 545 times; that’s a pretty comparable pick rate. To his credit, Darnold tossed 14 more TDs, but again I think that speaks to the respective running games. The Vikings didn’t have a lot going on the ground, whereas the Seahawks often fed Walker and Charbonnet when the offense got down into the red zone.

I’ll have a hard time believing Darnold will be bad. If he is, then I think you have to look no further than the offensive line and his receivers. If Darnold is just ordinary – kind of a Drew Lock Plus – behind a bad offensive line AND throwing to bad receivers, then we’ll have a serious problem on our hands. If Kupp can’t stay healthy, or can’t get open, or is just a bad fit for this scheme, then that’s going to lead to lots of double-teams of JSN. And, if MVS plays consistent with his career – as a one-trick pony with a case of the dropsies – then you’re not going to see anyone getting open consistently. With no time to throw, and no one open, I mean, you can’t just run the ball 50 times a game!

Odds are, the Seahawks will be able to scheme a way to protect the O-Line a little bit more than in years past. But, you still need to be able to throw the ball sometimes, in high-pressure situations, when the other team knows you need to throw and can pin its ears back and attack. Lose too many of those battles, and I think Darnold might be a lost cause.

The key question on everyone’s minds is this: can the Seahawks win playoff games with Sam Darnold? Of course, if you can’t even make the playoffs with him, then you absolutely have your answer. But, let’s say we get someone who’s a younger version of Geno; can he win in the playoffs? With the talent the Seahawks have put around him?

We won’t know the answer to that question until we see him in that environment. I’ll say that it’s a bad sign that not only did he lose his only playoff game, but lost it in spectacular fashion, getting sacked 9 times, while scoring only 9 points against the Rams last year. Then again, if he had won – and went on to have an impressive showing in the playoffs – would he even be here? If so, he’d sure as shit be earning a lot more in guaranteed money!

In closing, I’ll say that the Vikings are one of the more interesting under-the-radar teams in the NFL, under Kevin O’Connell. He started coaching there in 2022. In that year, he took Kirk Cousins to the next level, leading them to a 13-4 record and an NFC North title. But … they lost in the first round to Danny Dimes and the New York Giants.

2023 was a bit of a struggle early on, but the Vikings with Kirk Cousins went 4-4 before he got hurt and was lost for the season. They would get to 6-4 before falling off a cliff, finishing 7-10. Then, you have 2024, taking Sam Darnold to the next level, leading them to an even-better 14-3 record, until another early playoff exit.

What are we talking about, here? Are the Vikings great or not?! The offense seems to be Regular Season Good. The defense seems to be competent, at least when the offense is putting up numbers. But, in big games, this team doesn’t seem to have it.

So, maybe we don’t put the entirety of their 2024 collapse on Darnold’s shoulders. The Seahawks are building differently. This team SHOULD go as far as the defense takes it. All we need is for Sam Darnold to not get in the way, while occasionally stepping up in big moments.

It’s not asking a lot, but it’s also asking for everything. Because those occasional big moments are what make or break you as a quarterback. Everything else is just filler. How you perform against inferior opposition: that’s nothing. Talk to me come crunch time.